Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 4:13 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Waves nearly calm. Tonight - North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Friday - Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots backing west with gusts to around 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the afternoon becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 181540 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1040 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain today into this evening.

- Cooler pattern through the weekend may result in frost concerns Saturday night, especially in the Wisconsin River Valley.

- Dry pattern through this weekend, but a chance for rain Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

UPDATE
Issued 1022 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Off and on light showers will continue across southern WI today as the surface lows lifts to northeast across IL this afternoon/evening. May see rainfall rates pick up a bit more, especially along the WI/IL border this afternoon as the low and better upper-level dynamics move into the region. Otherwise, expecting drier conditions on the backside of the departing low this evening. While cannot rule out some light wrap around showers across central WI counties on Friday from a low further north meandering across central Ontario, mainly expecting mostly dry conditions Friday into the weekend.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today through Friday:

Clearing skies will last for a few more hours with weak high pressure prior to to a combination of 850-700mb frontogenesis and some upper level shortwave activity push in bringing rain chances (80+%) across the CWA The other factor that adds certainty to this is the moisture in the low to mid levels especially but WAA and a being on the nose of the LLJ also helps add forcing to this system. While these factors are not exactly overlapping simultaneously but the various forcing mechanisms will likely yield at least scattered showers. In the morning models are suggestive of consistent showers across the northwest/west part of the CWA with largely the frontogenesis being responsible. A few CAMs are indicating some of the morning showers that may (40%) leak further east would likely be associated with the LLJ/WAA.

Showers will start to push further east into the afternoon as the upper level shortwave activity slides east. The southeast part of the area from Janesville to Milwaukee and south may (40%) see a period of heavier rainfall in the late afternoon to early evening as this system slides out. We could (10%) even see a rumble of thunder as forcing mechanisms align a bit with convective aspects (better lapse rates) and higher PWATs (1-1.25 in) allowing for some heavier and more efficient rainfall. Rain will likely (90%) push out during the first few hours of the evening. We will start to see clearing skies overnight as higher pressure nudges in.

Friday looks largely to be quiet with higher pressure dominating the region. Clear skies may (70%) largely remain despite the upper low rotating and slowly pushing east due mostly to dry upper level air. However by the late afternoon some clouds could impinge on the CWA from the north and south though the sky would at most be scattered higher clouds. Otherwise with cooler air filling in, expect highs not get out of the upper 40s to low 50s. In addition the most impactful thing Friday will be the west to northwest winds which will gust from 30-35 mph with a gust or two to 40mph possible (30%). This will be due to decent mixing in the afternoon of winds aloft and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to the north and higher pressure strengthening and impinging from the west.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Through the weekend the upper levels will remain very active with the upper low gradually pushing out and various shortwaves continuing through the region. However due to the lack of moisture in addition to the modest high surface pressure over the region, not only is precip not expected but skies should remain mostly clear though Saturday could feature some cloud cover.

Into early next week, Monday evening through Tuesday morning, we should expect the next system to roll in. This will largely be upper level shortwave activity in combination with some LLJ/WAA influence that looks likely to bring at least some showers across southern Wisconsin. The certainty with this system has increased as the moisture and forcing mechanisms are better defined in latest models.

By mid to late next week high pressure and an upper level ridge should dominating the region with the next best chance for precip being the following weekend with the high pressure sliding out.

Kuroski

AVIATION
Issued 1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Off and on showers with high ceilings persist through the afternoon with mainly VFR conditions given recent trends.
However, may see rainfall rates pick up this afternoon as the surface low lifts into IL, which would bring lower visibilities and ceilings. The heavier rainfall along with lower flight conditions look to favor areas along the WI/IL border through the early evening. Then rain chances diminish between 01-04z as drier air settles in behind the low, but lower ceilings around MVFR levels may linger longer later this evening. Otherwise, expect light variable winds to turn more northwesterly through the night before increasing during the day Friday with gusts to 30kt.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Another low pressure area will deepen across Ontario today into northwest Quebec for late tonight into Friday. With a strengthening high pressure in western Canada impinging southeastward the pressure gradient will sharply increase for Friday across the region leading to breezy westerly winds across the lake during this time. However, winds are not expected to be as strong as over land due to the cooler waters of the lake.
However, we have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 15z Friday to 0z Saturday for breezy west to northwest winds. Through the weekend the high pressure will weaken as it slides southeast meaning winds will trend lighter while remaining largely from the west to northwest. May need a brief Small Craft Saturday but it remains uncertain at this point.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

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