Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beloit, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 2:33 PM CDT (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:04PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Pm Cdt Tue May 22 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog through the day. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the evening, then veering west after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Patchy fog through around midnight, then areas of fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the morning, then backing southeast in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight, then easing to 5 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ646 Expires:201805222200;;363997 FZUS53 KMKX 221806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-222200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beloit, WI
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location: 42.52, -89.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221647
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1147 am cdt Tue may 22 2018

Update
Cloud bases are gradually rising late this morning, and this
should continue into the afternoon. Some drier air is working down
the lake, with more extensive erosion of the cloud cover occuring
upstream. Models suggest this erosion should continue offshore,
with increased odds of seeing just a little Sun closer to the
lake. That said, mean low level rh values over land areas remain
around 70-80% through this afternoon, suggesting at least broken
cloud cover is likely to continue for most areas. Given extensive
cloud cover and onshore flow today, have lowered high
temperatures just a tad. Peak readings should range from the 50s
by the lake to around 70 for areas near and west of madison.

Weak northwesterly flow will prevail aloft tonight, as southern
wisconsin remains downstream from the mid to upper level trough
axis located over the great plains. Surface high pressure will
settle over southern lake michigan tonight, with light and
variable low-level winds. Cloud cover should at least partially
scatter out this evening and early tonight, setting the stage for
fog development given light surface winds and antecedent surface
moisture. The timing for any potential dense fog appears to be
somewhat later than yesterday per model guidance, which suggests
visibilities don't really tank until after midnight. We'll need to
keep a close eye on timing the fog this evening should conditions
deteriorate faster than anticipated. Lows tonight will drop off
into the 50s.

Rising heights aloft will occur on Wednesday as some weak
perturbations crest the central CONUS ridge and ride the upper
flow into the upper mississippi valley. Showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the upper level disturbance, but protective
influence of low-level ridging should be enough to keep this
activity west of our area through tomorrow evening. Have removed
pops from our far west during this time, as it appears we'll stay
dry through 00z Thursday. Southerly winds will bring warmer
temperatures into the area, with winds turning more southeasterly
by lake michigan. Highs will range from around 80 well inland to
the upper 60s along the lakeshore.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Look for improving flight conditions this afternoon with broken to
overcast ceilings gradually rising to at least MVFR levels. A
period ofVFR is possible this evening into early tonight.

Thereafter, ceilings and visibilities will lower with fog
development likely. Some of the fog may become dense, and the
greatest chance for this appears to be later tonight after
midnight. However there is some uncertainty in both how widespread
and how quickly any dense fog will develop. The key message
however is that some potential for ifr lifr visibilities exists
later tonight.

Prev discussion (issued 913 am cdt Tue may 22 2018)
update...

cancelled the dense fog advisory as visibilities have improved.

Still expect rising ceilings this afternoon, but uncertainty
exists on how much Sun we'll see. For now, will stick with a
conservative approach to high temperatures, but may adjust them if
we start seeing a little more insolation. Given high pressure
locating over southern lake michigan tonight, expect fog,
potentially dense, to return tonight.

Marine...

extended the dense fog advisory into late afternoon. As winds turn
northeasterly this could again bring areas of dense fog into the
nearshore waters. Otherwise light winds and waves are expected
today. Dense fog will likely become more widespread once again
tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 619 am cdt Tue may 22 2018)
update...

fog continues across the area. Some minor improvement has been
noted in a few spots, but a fair number of sites are still
reporting 1 4 mile fog, as are quite a few traffic webcams. As
such, the dense fog adv will continue.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

fog and low ceilings continue this morning, with lifr gradually
improving to ifr. Conditions should make further improvements
during the afternoon, withVFR expected by late afternoon and
early evening.

After midnight tonight, fog will again develop, with ifr vis
expected by Wednesday morning. Some areas of lifr are possible as
well.

Winds will be light and variable through the period.

Prev discussion... (issued 319 am cdt Tue may 22 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is moderate to high...

widespread low clouds and fog continue across the region early
this morning. Fog has been quite dense across the eastern and
southeastern portion of the forecast area, with somewhat less
intensity further to the west. The current dense fog advisory
looks to be well-placed, but obs will continued to be monitored
this morning for any potential expansion.

In addition to the low clouds, light rain showers sprinkles have
been percolating in a few locations. This will continue through
mid morning as the mid level shortwave moves through.

Low clouds will gradually lift through the day, and should begin
to scatter out by afternoon. The exact timing of this is a bit
questionable, and could have some impact on high temperatures.

Upper 60s to low 70s appear most likely, though more Sun than
currently expected could boost temps by a few degrees.

Skies are expected to be mostly clear this evening, with
temperatures falling through the 60s. Overnight lows tonight into
Wednesday morning are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. With
clear skies, light wind, and plenty of low level moisture, fog,
perhaps dense, looks to be a pretty good bet again tonight.

Long term...

Wednesday through Monday... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday
under high pressure.

A warm and moist airmass will be in place late week into early
next week under southerly low level flow between high and low
pressure. Will see multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night through Monday. Models have less of a defined
main low and cold front than they did 24 hours ago. Looks more
like multiple waves moving through kicking off the precip.

Confidence is high in a wetter pattern, but still less confidence
in the timing of individual rounds of showers storms.

Above normal temperatures will continue late week through the
weekend. Exact high temps will depend on the timing of
precipitation and the possibility of clouds rain during the day.

Overall though, this has the potential to be the warmest and most
humid airmass of the season thus far.

Marine...

dense fog continues across the nearshore. Conditions should
improve later this morning.

Light winds and little in the way of wave action are expected
today. Some fog may redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning, and
visibility could fall under 1 mile.

Southerly winds will start to increase a bit late in the week into
next weekend, when thunderstorm chances will return to the area.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz643>646.

Update... Spm
today tonight and aviation marine... Boxell
Wednesday through Monday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 66 mi33 min 48°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 66 mi53 min NE 8 G 9.9 49°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 72 mi43 min ENE 6 G 6 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI7 mi48 minNNW 76.00 miFog/Mist64°F57°F78%1018.6 hPa
Rockford, Greater Rockford Airport, IL22 mi39 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E6E7E7E9E7E6E5NE4E6E6CalmE5CalmCalmN5CalmNW3NW3NW4NW4NW4NW5NW7
1 day ago------E10E11E8E8E6E5E5NE4E3NE5E4E5E3E7E9E10E7E5SE12E10SE8
2 days agoNW3N5N6N3NE3SE4SE3SE4S6SE5E8E11
G15
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E14E11NE9NE11SE12E9E13E9NE10----

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.