Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:03AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:12 PM EDT (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1024 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1024 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will approach the waters this afternoon into evening, sweeping through overnight ahead of which there is the possibility of showers and Thunderstorms, especially over the eastern waters. A weak wave of low pressure and wet weather is possible Wednesday night over the S waters, otherwise cooler and drier conditions beneath high pressure and northwesterly flow for the remainder of the week, while a warm front lifts north across the waters over the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly city, MA
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location: 42.54, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181424
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1024 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Excessive heat and humidity is expected this afternoon away from the
cooling marine influence of the south coast. A cold front approaching
from the west may result in a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening... Mainly across interior southern new england. A much
nicer day is on tap for Tuesday behind the cold front with plenty
of sunshine and much lower humidity. Skirting wet-weather Wednesday
followed by a period of seasonable, dry weather. Return of warmer,
muggier conditions into the weekend with the chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Perhaps a return of seasonable, dry conditions early
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1030 am update...

overall trend in the weather remains on track for today and
tonight. Continue to keep an eye on the storm potential latest
12z guidance is just now coming in so will review and make any
changes if needed. Biggest thing was to increase pops as the
cams continue to show precip moving into to the region tonight.

Aside from the storms continue to monitor the heat adv. A lot of
cloud debris across the region which could actually hinder the
high temps for today. Have dropped temps down a few degrees
resulting in low to mid 90s away from the coastline. However,
still expecting high dewpoint air which will still put heat
indices in the upper 90s. Will continue to keep the adv going
for now as there is not enough confidence to lower it at this
time.

Gusty wind this morning will increase out of the southwest.

Expect gusts to near 25-30 mph by the afternoon as we continue
to mix across the region.

Highlights...

* excessive heat humidity this afternoon northwest of i-95
* isolated strong-severe t-storms with localized heavy rain possible
between 2-10 pm mainly across interior ma ct
details...

1) excessive heat humidity:
anomalous airmass was moving into southern new england early this
morning. 850t should rise to between +18c and +20c along with plenty
of sunshine into mid afternoon. This coupled with excellent mixing
on gusty southwest winds should allow high temps to exceed guidance
numbers in many locations. Highs should reach into the middle to
upper 90s to the northwest of the i-95 corridor. Dewpoints rising
well into the 60s should result in afternoon heat index values
around 100 degrees and heat advisories are posted for this region.

Meanwhile... Southeast of the i-95 corridor there will be enough of a
marine influence to hold highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with
upper 70s to lower 80s on south coast beaches. In fact... Gusty
southwest winds will result in these high temperatures occurring by
early afternoon and cooling marine air will be advancing northward
later in the day.

2) isolated strong to severe weather potential:
there is uncertainty in regards to the convective potential in
southern new england today... .But there is the risk for isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms mainly across interior ma ct. Most of
the high resolution guidance develops isolated to scattered
convection after 2 or 3 pm across interior southern new england in
association with a pre-frontal trough. We may see another round of
scattered convection... Perhaps with a bit more areal coverage after
7 or 8 pm in association with the surface cold front.

The biggest limiting factors are weak mid level lapse rates which
will limit updraft strength potential and also uncertainty in
regards to the amount of forcing. However... Given the anomalous
airmass in place there will be modest instability along with 0 to 6
km shear of 30 to 40 knots. This may be enough for isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms mainly across interior ma ct with the main
threat being localized strong-damaging wind gusts. While the
tornado threat is low it can not be completely ruled out either,
because there is decent low level helicity. Pwats 3+ standard
deviations above normal will result in the potential for any
thunderstorm to produce torrential rain and a very localized street
flooding threat. The strong to severe weather threat appears rather
low across eastern ma ri as forcing will be slower to arrive and a
stabilizing marine layer will be working up from the south lowering
instability.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Late tonight...

while the isolated severe threat should diminish by late
evening... The potential for scattered showers and embedded t-storms
will continue into much of the overnight hours. This a result of
some elevated instability coupled with a cold front moving into a
high pwat environment. We should see the scattered shower isolated
t-storm threat confine itself to the south coast toward daybreak.

Low temps will only fall back into the upper 60s to the lower 70s in
most locations and it will be quite muggy for most of the night. Fog
may impact the CAPE islands as well given high dewpoint air in place.

Tuesday...

a much more comfortable day is in store for the region on Tuesday
behind the cold front. Much drier air should work in from the
northwest allowing for plenty of sunshine and significantly lower
humidity. High temperatures should top out in the lower to middle
80s... But it will feel refreshing after today S heat and humidity.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
* highlights...

- skirting s-coastal rains Sunday night
- cool, dry late-week pattern
- return of warm, muggy conditions into the weekend
- accompanying chances of showers and thunderstorms
* overview...

back and forth. Rossby wave train evident. A sharpening aleutian h5
trof, a present downstream ridge-trof-ridge pattern up against the
baffin bay gyre. Midweek broadening, pattern breaks, flatter, shifts
e, with pacific energy rotating towards the gyre, s-stream energy at
times drawn n, accompanying warm, muggy air. But with re-affirmation
of the aleutian trof, downstream pattern amplifies once again, air-
masses transition.

So a cooler, drier early week pattern beneath NW flow, accompanying
h5 trof, energy drawn through amplified via cyclonic digging, parent
cold front around Wednesday night ahead of which some rains could
skirt S new england. Pattern broadening, higher heights, bit more s-
stream dominance over baffin bay gyre, a warmer and muggier pattern
towards the weekend. If the upstream aleutian trof sharpens, down-
stream pattern amplifying, our natural air conditioner could re-
emerge towards late june, otherwise summer is here. Targets of
opportunity in the discussion below.

* discussion...

around Wednesday night...

weak mid-atlantic energy emerging as h5 trof digs around the baffin
bay gyre. Hesitant on pops given a weak low up against a dominant
canadian high. Fast, flat flow at the base with the n-stream vort-
max digging, left feeling rain will skirt the s-shore, remain mostly
offshore, S new england between the two waves, prevailing sinking
air, less favorable environment. Keep chance pops confined to s
waters, islands.

Thursday through Saturday...

high pressure, likely sea-breezes. Transitioning over S new england
Friday, monitoring radiational cooling, interior fog issues. Leaning
low-end of MOS guidance for nighttime lows. High pressure e, return
s flow ahead of warm front Sunday, marine stratus may return.

Sunday into Monday...

lifting warm front followed by a weak cold frontal passage. Watching
for showers and thunderstorms. Return of warm, muggy conditions. Too
early on specifics, a low confidence forecast.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

vfr through early afternoon. Low risk sct MVFR-ifr along s-coast
where SW winds will be gusting upwards of 35 kts. Sct shra tsra
developing by 18z, mainly interior ma ct. Ra +ra possible along
with ifr CIGS and vsbys. W g30-40 kts possible with storms as well.

Tonight...

sct shra tsra dissipating, as late as 3z, again mainly interior
ma ct. Continued ra +ra threats along with ifr CIGS and vsbys.

OtherwiseVFR. SW winds through early morning, llws for s-coast
along with MVFR-lifr CIGS and vsbys, before winds shift NW by
Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...

vfr conditions expected.

Kbos terminal...

shra tsra into terminal roughly 21z. Sct nature, will prevail
with vcts.

Kbdl terminal...

sct shra tsra into the terminal roughly 20z. Will prevail
accordingly with vcts.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Patchy fg.

Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday: breezy.

Wednesday night: slight chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday through Friday:

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Today...

southwest winds increase to between 20 and 30 knots by afternoon.

Strongest of those winds will be near shore with excellent mixing
given daytime heating... So very choppy waters to develop in harbors
and bays. Long southwest fetch will also build sees to between 3
and 6 feet.

Tonight...

near shore southwest wind gusts should diminish a bit by late
evening... But marginal small craft wind gusts and 3 to 6 foot
seas should persist longer over the open waters. An isolated
t-storm or two is possible tonight.

Tuesday...

lingering small craft swell across our southern most outer-waters
diminishes by late morning. Otherwise... Winds seas should remain
below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Patchy fog.

Tuesday night through Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday: winds less than 25 kt.

Climate
Here are the record and forecast highs for Monday june 18...

bos ... 94 (1907 & 1929) ... Forecast high 95
bdl ... 95 (1957 & 1994) ... Forecast high 96
pvd ... 94 (1929) ... Forecast high 88
orh ... 93 (1907 & 1929) ... Forecast high 91

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ctz002.

Air quality ALERT until 10 pm edt this evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... Air quality ALERT until 11 pm edt this evening for maz003>007-
009>016-026.

Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz003-005-006-
010-011-013>016.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz230>237-251.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank dunten
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 14 mi69 min 64°F 60°F2 ft1010.2 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 16 mi83 min S 9.7 G 12 69°F 61°F1 ft1011.9 hPa (-1.8)63°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 17 mi43 min 83°F 1010.6 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 31 mi73 min SSW 22 G 24 78°F 1009.9 hPa (-1.7)64°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 36 mi88 min SW 5.1 85°F 71°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 39 mi37 min 57°F3 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi83 min SSW 21 G 23 65°F 3 ft1012.4 hPa (-2.0)60°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 49 mi69 min S 12 G 14 62°F 59°F2 ft1008.3 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA6 mi20 minSW 14 G 2010.00 miFair85°F70°F61%1009.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA15 mi19 minSW 1810.00 miOvercast and Breezy85°F68°F57%1011 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA20 mi19 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair88°F68°F52%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE6SE9SE8SE9SE5S3SE5SE3CalmS4S4SW4S3S5SW7SW8SW7SW8SW7SW13SW14SW16
G21
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1 day agoNW8
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NW7N7N6W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW5CalmCalmCalmNW5N3N5SW3SE8SE10
2 days agoSE5NE5CalmN7NW7CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW3W4NW4SW3CalmSW5W4W6W5NW8NW10NW10NW11NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
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Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     10.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM EDT     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:00 PM EDT     9.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.17.69.810.910.696.53.70.9-1-1.20.12.24.77.39.29.99.37.65.32.80.7-0.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:33 AM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM EDT     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.40.40.40.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.