Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:45PM Sunday January 21, 2018 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1021 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1021 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pressure will remain S of the waters today. Low pres will pass well W of the region late Monday, but its associated front will bring periods of rain and gusty southerly winds Mon night into Tue. Winds will shift to W to nw and remain gusty Wed and Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly city, MA
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location: 42.54, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211503
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1003 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain to
southern new england Tuesday along with strong winds on the
coast. This storm will be preceded by some mixed wintry precip
Monday and a risk of light icing across the interior Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above normal
temperatures likely return next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High thin clouds across the region with a few thicker spots. Low
clouds show up over northern vt and nh, but a westerly flow
should keep that to our north. Also low clouds over lower
michigan, but the pattern generating those will remain well to
our west this afternoon. High pressure centered off the SE usa
coast will remain in place with dry weather in southern new
england through the rest of the day, along with varying amounts
of filtered sunshine through the high clouds.

Temps at 950 mb this morning were between 0c and 5c, which
supports MAX sfc temps in the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Tonight...

clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts to push
ne toward the region this evening as low pressure will push out
of the mid mississippi valley toward the great lakes overnight.

Will remain in a general W flow aloft, but will start to turn to
a more SW flow toward daybreak.

Leading edge of the overrunning precip may approach overnight,
but precip may hold off for most areas until Monday. However,
could see some light precip reach into western areas and,
depending upon the low level temp profile, could see a wintry
mix at the onset as colder air damming sets up there. This may
occur around the start of the early morning commute in the
hartford springfield area and along the i-91 corridor. Expect
temps to fall back to the mid-upper 20s from N mass down the ct
valley, ranging to 30-35 across ri and SE mass.

Monday...

with high pressure remaining across central quebec, cold air
may continue push down across the interior through the mid to
late morning hours (at least). So, will see a mix of snow, sleet
and possibly some freezing rain as the precip pushes NE during
the morning.

Some question how quickly the temps will rise above freezing,
though it does look like it should be relatively quick as winds
shift to se-s by around midday or so. The high should remain
well N of the region, allowing for slowly rising temps during
the day.

Looks like the biggest threat for a mix of snow and freezing
rain for most of the day will be along the route 2 corridor of
n mass. Expecting light QPF amounts, generally less than 0.1
inches, but the potential of lingering light freezing rain
across northern areas and the higher terrain will be a big
concern.

May see some precip taper off across south coastal areas toward
evening as the warm front lifts into central new england.

Expect temps to reach near seasonal levels for highs on Monday,
at least for now.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* light icing risk Mon night across interior ma high terrain
* heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds SE new eng
* significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* dry blustery and turning colder Wed and especially Thu fri
Monday night...

main concern for Mon night continues to be a risk of light
icing over portions of the interior. Precip expected to be light
as some mid level drying moves in while best forcing remains to
the west. In fact, ice crystal growth region is drying which
suggests more in the way of drizzle. There is a cold air damming
signature with sfc ridging nosing down from the NE with low
level northerly ageostrophic flow. Leaned toward 3km NAM for
temps as higher resolution datasets should better capture
localized cold air damming and it targets higher terrain in
western and northern ma for near freezing temps, possibly down
to higher elevations in NW hartford county. This is where the
greatest threat of some light freezing rain drizzle exists with
potential for a light icing event. This also is supported by hi-
res ECMWF temps. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
mon night over the higher elevations.

Tuesday...

potential for some light freezing rain lingering over higher
terrain on ma early, otherwise it's all rain. Decent heavy rain
signal for Tue with pwat anomaly +2sd and low level wind anomaly
up to +3sd. In addition, elevated instability at the nose of
the low level jet will likely result in some convective elements
with an isold t-storm possible. An area of heavy rain along the
pre-frontal low level jet will move west to east across sne
with rain exiting the coast around evening. System is
progressive which should limit window of moderate to heavy
rainfall to about 6 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches still looks reasonable with heaviest amounts in western
new eng. Given that most of the rain will probably fall in a 6
hour window, expect typical minor urban and poor drainage street
flooding, but river flooding is not anticipated.

The other concern is a period of strong winds across ri and
eastern ma as 65-70 kt low level jet moves up along the coastal
plain. Low level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic which will
allow for some mixing, especially where temps climb into the
mid 50s across ri and SE ma and in the vicinity of any heavier
convective elements. In addition, models indicate impressive
pressure falls on the order of 9 mb in 3 hours which will
enhance isallobaric component of the wind. Potential exists for
wind gusts up to 50 mph for a few hours in the afternoon across
ri and SE ma. Cips analogs also support this with fairly decent
probs of 40+ kts across SE ma.

Wednesday through Friday...

turning colder and blustery behind the storm with brisk nw
flow. Temps near normal wed, then trending below normal Thu fri
as core of coldest air aloft settles over the region. Decent
shot of cold air with -15c at 850 mb into sne on thu. Highs
likely in the 20s Thu and blustery winds will make it feel
considerably colder. Wind chills Thu night early Fri morning
dropping into the single numbers with subzero wind chills over
higher terrain. Looks mainly dry during this period.

Saturday...

high pres moves off the coast with SE CONUS ridge building
north into new eng leading to a moderating trend with above
normal temps likely. Dry weather.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

this afternoon... High confidence.VFR. W-nw winds around 10 kt
or less as pressure gradient relaxes.

Tonight... Moderate confidence in general trends, lower in timing
arrival of precip. MainlyVFR through midnight, then MVFR-ifr
cigs move into central and western areas. Expect mixed
snow sleet freezing rain and patchy fog to move into the ct
valley during the early morning commute.

Monday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR CIGS lower to ifr by around midday, with lifr across
southern areas in the afternoon. Vsbys lower to MVFR-ifr by
midday. Mixed -sn -pe -fzra to start, then changes to -ra near
and S of the mass pike by midday, with mixed -ra -sn across n
mass. May see a mix with -fzra toward sunset along the N mass
border. Light variable wind becomes e-se during the day.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Ra likely,
chance fzra interior northern ma.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt ri and SE ma. Ra. Pockets of fzra early
interior northern ma.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

This afternoon... W-nw winds diminish as high pressure passes s
of new england. Seas will also continue to subside.

Tonight...

light and variable winds eventually shift to s-sw toward
daybreak as low pressure remains well W of the waters. Seas
remain below 5 ft. Some visibility restrictions across the
western waters toward daybreak as light rain moves in.

Monday...

expect e-se winds to increase during the afternoon, up to 10-15
kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Seas will build up to 3 ft on the
eastern outer waters late in the day. Visibility lowers to 1-3
nm by mid to late morning in rain along with a brief mix with
snow on the eastern waters.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Received new data from nerfc late Saturday night, so updated
the flood statement to provide the latest information. Not too
much change from the previous forecast.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Wtb evt
short term... Evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Wtb kjc evt
marine... Wtb kjc evt
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 14 mi116 min 9.7 G 9.7 39°F 39°F1 ft1019.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 16 mi70 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 40°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 17 mi42 min 47°F 1018.8 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 31 mi60 min W 9.9 G 12 42°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.6)30°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 36 mi75 min WNW 2.9 40°F 1020 hPa31°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 39 mi54 min 43°F2 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA6 mi67 minNW 710.00 miFair49°F30°F50%1019.4 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA15 mi66 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F30°F54%1020.1 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA20 mi66 minNW 710.00 miFair49°F30°F48%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W10SW6W10W6W7W6W6W4SW5W5SW4CalmNW3CalmCalmW3W3NW6NW5SW6W7NW7NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
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Sun -- 01:49 AM EST     8.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:57 PM EST     9.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
78.48.786.44.42.510.61.63.65.57.38.89.38.77.14.92.80.9-0.10.324

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:10 AM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:35 PM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.30.40.40.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.