Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:28PM Saturday February 24, 2018 11:01 AM EST (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:45PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Warm frontal boundary lifting N into the waters through Sunday along which a wave of low pressure along the coast is expected to develop. As such, E gales Sunday shifting W and weakening as the low passes. Quiet through the early week period, W winds, with an eye on the late week and the potential for a deep, offshore storm to develop. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241500
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1000 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably mild today with a period of showers possible south
of the mass pike late today and early this evening. A frontal
system will bring more precipitation late tonight and Sunday
with rain mixed with sleet at times in the coastal plain and
snow sleet and freezing changing to rain in the interior. Near-
seasonable, quiet and dry for the first half of next week,
attention turns towards late week and an anticipated stormy
pattern.

Near term through tonight
10 am update...

very pleasant feb conditions this morning. Temps already running
in the upper 40s and low 50s with plenty of sunshine out of
terrain-waves near the berkshires and lingering stratus across
mvy ack, which should be clearing in the next hour or so.

Increased highs a bit as a result as timing of the clouds
associated with a weak leading wave moves in this afternoon
being slower than previously forecast. Many locations make the
50s, or even upper 50s.

Otherwise, narrow corridor of shra later this afternoon and
evening, mainly S of the mass pike. Not too much with this
initial round as the moisture in the column remains somewhat
low until tonight.

Short term Sunday
*** mixed precipitation event for interior late tonight and
Sunday with some snow and ice accumulations ***
a few showers likely impacting south coast early evening,
otherwise dry weather through midnight before main area of
overrunning precip ahead of the warm front begins to overspread
the region from the SW to NE late tonight into Sunday.

Ptype will be biggest challenge with this event. Initially, the
column is warm but all the guidance is indicating a good cold
air damming signature developing overnight into Sunday as high
pres builds over the maritimes. In fact, notable cooling in the
925-950 mb layer 06-15z with temps dropping to -2 to -4c before
warmer air moves in from the south. Warming temps above this
layer will set up a sleet and freezing rain scenario in the
interior where low level cold air will be difficult to dislodge
given warm front remaining to the south and a sfc wave tracking
along the boundary to lock in the cold air near the surface.

Some snow is also likely late tonight and early Sunday, north
of the pike and especially near nh border where cold air just
deep enough as precip moves in. In the coastal plain, mainly
rain is expected, but given cold air below 850 mb, some sleet
will likely mix in with the rain late tonight and Sunday morning
even along the south coast.

Expect 1-3 inches snow sleet accum in the interior north of the
mass pike with highest amounts near nh border. If warmer air
aloft is delayed a few hours it is possible a few locations
could approach 4-5 inches but this is a low probability. We are
concerned with several hours of freezing rain and icy
conditions across portions of the interior during Sunday,
especially over the berkshires, worcester hills and portions of
the ct valley. Ice accretion up to one tenth of an inch is
possible with up to 0.25" over the berkshires. Expect temps to
gradually rise above freezing Sun afternoon in the interior as
precip intensity diminishes.

Winter weather advisories will be issued for all of central and
western ma and northern ct. Some freezing rain is possible in
nw ri and interior NE ma but confidence not yet high enough for
an advisory in this area. Across NE ma may be dealing with more
of a snow sleet to rain scenario.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
* highlights...

- quiet, dry, near-seasonable early week period
- stormy pattern emerging late week for the beginning of march
* overview...

blocky N atlantic pattern, associated +3 standard deviation h5 high
retrograding W into SE canada, parent 1040+ surface high, pressing
the thermal wind axis S through which N S stream impulses merge, dug
through a prevailing W CONUS h5 trof before ejecting and stretching
e. Energy piling up, cutting off for a time given the block, an area
of favorable storm development emerges off the SE canadian coast,
evolving S W towards the NE CONUS per retrograding high, E ejecting
energy. Airmass juxtaposition key as to outcomes towards the end of
the week after a quiet start. Only confidence is persistence of ne
winds of significant duration during high astro-tides, concern with
respect to coastal flooding. Lower confidence otherwise, consensus
forecast guidance heavily weighted with ensemble means. Hit targets
of opportunity below.

* discussion...

Thursday into the weekend...

while considerable ensemble member deterministic guidance spread
there's cohesive signal of a great lakes warm occlusion transferring
energy offshore beneath a more favorable region of storm development
evolving towards the NE conus. Occluded front transitioning to an
inverted trof, energy pinwheeling round a closed, stacking low well
offshore. Questions surround frontal boundary magnitude buffeting
the pressing N high, how far N E outcomes slide into new england.

Ncep noting poor run-to-run continuity with ejecting waves, ec, even
the 24.0z, worse than GFS which appears to be locking in. Warm core
low, absent arctic air, anticipate precip-type issues, rain snow,
lean to occluded front inverted trof hanging up into the NE conus
as energy transfers, low rolls up offshore. Only confidence is the
persistence of NE winds during high astro-tides, concern of coastal
flooding. Only chance pops given spread.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Today... MVFR ifr eroding over S SE coastal terminals, while bkn
MVFR decks filter into W new england. With increasing sunshine
should see decks erode, optimistically. However, towards later
in the day, increasing low-mid level decks and -ra, especially
for ct, ri, southeast ma. Light winds overall turning NW late.

Tonight...VFR in the evening, lowering to MVFR from west to east
late. Rain, sleet and freezing rain developing from SW to ne
well after midnight with snow sleet across northern ma. Mainly
rain mixed with sleet coastal plain.

Sunday... Widespread ifr lifr developing. Rain, mixed with sleet
at times in the morning in the coastal plain. Snow, sleet and
freezing rain changing to rain interior.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in trends. Conditions improving
toVFR early this morning, but exact timing may be off a few
hours.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in trends. Conditions improving
toVFR early this morning, but exact timing may be off a few
hours.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Ra, pl, fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance ra.

Monday through Wednesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Today... Diminishing winds becoming northerly late today. Seas
below sca.

Tonight and Sunday... Increasing easterly winds late tonight and
especially Sunday as low level jet moves across the waters.

Given cold air above the boundary layer, mixing will likely be
sufficient for a period of gale force gusts, especially over
the south coastal waters during sun. Otherwise, expect sca
conditions with gusts to 25-30 kt. Gale watches issued where
highest confidence of gales.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain. Visibility 1 nm or less.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Slight chance of rain.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
maz002>004-008>012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 4 pm est Sunday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 5 pm est Sunday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 7 pm est Sunday for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for anz236.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 7 pm est Sunday for anz250-
251.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Doody
short term... Kjc
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi117 min 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 41°F2 ft1017.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi71 min W 9.7 G 9.7 44°F 40°F1 ft1018.3 hPa (+1.5)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi43 min 52°F 1017.9 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi61 min WNW 23 G 26 47°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.9)35°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi76 min WNW 6 47°F 1019 hPa38°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi55 min 41°F3 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi117 min WSW 12 G 14 42°F 40°F2 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi68 minNW 9 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds51°F39°F64%1018.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi67 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds49°F39°F69%1018.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi67 minWNW 7 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F37°F61%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE5NE56N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW5CalmCalmN4NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmSE9E9
2 days agoSW14SW15SW15SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Sat -- 01:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM EST     9.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:00 PM EST     8.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.94.96.88.49.39.17.863.920.50.11.12.74.56.37.78.27.76.44.72.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:29 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:03 PM EST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:52 PM EST     -0.30 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.20.40.40.40.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.30.40.40.30.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.