Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:19PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:39 PM EST (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:52PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 221 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Sunday...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of rain and snow in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 221 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds over the waters tonight, then moves off to the east Sunday afternoon. A cold front crosses the waters Sunday night and Monday morning. High pressure then rebuilds over the waters Tuesday. Another weak low pressure system will cross the waters on Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171454
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
954 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
W wind aloft from the great lakes to new england will bring dry
and chilly weather this weekend. Expect unsettled conditions
Sunday night through Monday as weak low pressure moves across,
bringing periods of light rain and or snow. More cold air will
move in by mid week into thanksgiving, though it should remain
dry. Temperatures may begin to moderate toward the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

unseasonably cool, breezy, dry day. Broad cyclonic flow over the
region with subtle height rises. Prevailing subsidence above h6
beneath which a well-mixed boundary layer up to h85. Trapped
layers of moisture in-between along the fringes of the cold pool
settling in from the n. Expect continued scattered to broken
cloud decks today with ceilings up around 4 kft. With ample
sunshine, should see highs up around the upper 30s to low 40s,
colder conditions for those areas with snowpack, clouds. However,
with the winds, feeling 5 to 10 degrees cooler. H925-85 vertical
wind profilers from wsr-88ds already observing 25-35 mph NW flow.

We should see such W NW winds easily mix down through much of
today generally around 15 to 25 mph. Not expecting the streaming
light snow shower activity off lake ontario to make it E of the
berkshires. A dry day on tap along with some melting snow.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Overview...

west to east flow continues through Sunday evening. A weak
shortwave moves through the great lakes Sunday afternoon and
turns toward new england.

Tonight...

surface high pressure builds east, maintaining dry weather over
new england with diminishing wind. Expect clearing in at least
eastern mass and ri, possibly a few high clouds over NRN ct and
western mass. There should still be some snow cover
refrigerating the air, especially in areas that had the most
snow Thursday night. Dew points dip into the 20s, and with
favorable conditions for cooling expect the min sfc temps to
reach the 20s with lower 30s along the coast.

Sunday...

high pressure is overhead most of Sunday before shifting off to
the east. The great lakes shortwave may generate a weak low
pressure over the ohio valley that moves our way late in the
day. Expect a dry day through sunset with partly sunny skies to
start, then increasing mid and high clouds through the day. The
mixed layer will be more shallow, but with colder temps. So
expect MAX sfc temps in the 30s and lower 40s.

The main uncertainty is whether any light rain or snow can reach
us before 7 pm. Best chance would be in the western hills and ct
valley, but even there the chances are limited. We brought a 25
pct chance in right at the end of the forecast period.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* weak low pressure brings periods of rain and or snow late
sun into mon
* high pressure brings dry but cold conditions for Wed and
thanksgiving day
* models signaling a potential warm up late this week
overview...

broad h5 trough Sunday night digs across the great lakes early
next week with mid level steering flow aloft. This will bring a
weak surface front low pressure out of the mid appalachians S ny
Sunday night, bringing a band of light rain and or snow through
Monday. As this boundary slowly slips S Monday night into
Tuesday with the mid level trough, leftover rain snow showers
will linger as colder air works in.

The majority of the 00z model suite in pretty good agreement
around the middle of the week, with the mid level trough pushing
e Tuesday night. Some model spread with another front possibly
approaching late Wed wed night. Most of the moisture should
remain N of the region in the W steering flow. More cold air
lingers into thanksgiving, but could see some moderation toward
the end of the work week as models signaling a rise in the mid
level heights.

Details...

Sunday night and Tuesday...

as the broad h5 trough across the northern plains western great
lakes begins to dig across the lakes into the ohio valley early
this week, noting a weak deformation zone in the general w-sw
steering flow. This will bring a light band of precipitation
across the region and, with borderline temps in place especially
during the nighttime hours, could see periods of light rain
and or snow mainly late Monday Monday night. The boundary should
slow push E during tue, though light precip will linger with
scattered rain snow showers. Expect another bout with temps well
below normal during Tuesday, as highs will struggle to freezing
across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 40s
along the immediate coast.

Looks like the best chance for steady precip will occur Sunday
night-Monday. Not a whole of of precip with the system, though,
with QPF values from 0.1 to 0.3 inches, highest central and n
mass.

Tuesday through Friday...

the digging h5 trough will sweep across the region around mid
to late day on Tuesday. Some precip will linger across central
and eastern areas through midday, then should push offshore.

Can't rule out spotty showers across the E slopes of the
berkshires through the day. The cold pool across central and
eastern canada by mid week will hold the coldest air in that
region, but noting h85 temps slowly but steadily falling through
this timeframe.

Will see dry but cold conditions on Wednesday as high pressure
builds S of the region, keeping a cool w-nw flow in place. With
the fast flow aloft, may see a clipper type system push across
northern new england late Wed wed night. Should remain dry
across the region, though some clouds will move into the higher
terrain. The chilliest temperatures are forecast for turkey day,
with readings only managing to reach the mid 20s to around 30
across the higher terrain ranging to around 40 along the s
coast.

By late Thursday and Friday, noting slow but steady mid level
height rises as another surface high pressure moves in from the
great lakes. Should see dry conditions continue as temperatures
will moderate, with Friday's forecasted highs about 5-10 degrees
milder than Thursday.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr. Breezy W NW winds with gusts generally 15 to 25 kts, up as
high as 30 kts. Sct-bkn CIGS 3-4 kft agl.

Tonight...

vfr continues. Breezy W NW winds 10 to 20 kts, lower across the
interior. Continued sct-bkn CIGS 3-4 kft.

Sunday...

remainingVFR however CIGS thickening and lowering towards
evening. Potential MVFR across the high terrain by 0z. Winds
shifting S SW through the day.

Kbos terminal...

no impacts.VFR.

Kbdl terminal...

no impacts.VFR.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance sn,
chance ra, patchy br.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance ra, chance sn,
patchy br.

Monday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shsn, chance
shra, patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shsn.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Today into tonight..

Small craft advisories for all waters. Breezy W NW winds with
gusts generally around 15 to 25 kts, possibly as high as 30 kts.

High pressure building in over time, winds diminishing, should
see wave heights dampen resulting in the conclusion of headlines.

Sunday...

good boating weather as both winds and seas will be light. Will
see W winds turn S SW through the day. Increasing clouds out of
the sw, lowering and thickening ahead of the next weather system
with the threat of some rain Sunday night into Monday.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz230>237-251.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Sunday for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for anz256.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb sipprell evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb sipprell evt
marine... Wtb sipprell evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi47 minW 710.00 miOvercast46°F30°F54%1016.5 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi46 minW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F30°F54%1017.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi46 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast47°F28°F50%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W7W4W6W7W6W7SW10W9W11SW9SW9SW5SW7W6SW8SW7SW9SW8W9W5W10W5W7
1 day agoE3NE5NE4N5N5NE5E5E7E10E9
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NW10NW10NW8NW10NW5NW6W6NW6N7NW5NW5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM EST     8.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     1.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:38 PM EST     8.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.84.15.77.287.975.84.32.81.81.92.845.4788.17.46.14.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:43 AM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:45 AM EST     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.10.20.30.30.30.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.30.30.30.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.