Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:15PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:31AMMoonset 6:36PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 332 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 332 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will move overhead tonight and on Saturday. Approaching warm front on Sunday with a coastal low pressure system moving through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. High pressure builds over the waters from the west on Wednesday. Another cold front will cross the waters Thursday night and Friday morning. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211942
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
342 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
Dry weather prevails mostly through Saturday with lower humidity,
but it will be hot. High pressure from canada builds over the
region Sunday, then moves off to the east. Low pressure from the
great lakes approaches on Monday bringing showers and scattered
thunderstorms. High pressure moves in during Tuesday and Wednesday
with dry weather. Another area of low pressure moves through late
in the week.

Near term through tonight
Quiet. Scattered cumulus dissipates however mid to high level
clouds continue to filter across the region in association with
remnant convection upstream. A weak, shallow trough boundary
pushing S with more N flow and drier air in association with a
mid level vortex slightly dropping S round a deeper low over the
e hudson bay region of canada, forecasting dry air advection
with lower dewpoints.

All in consideration, if winds become light then there is some
opportunity for spot locations to drop out. As we saw last
night, sheltered valleys in N W ma were able to drop into the
upper 50s. Similar thinking for tonight with average lows across
the region around the mid 60s.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
Saturday into Saturday night...

keeping it mostly dry. In brevity, the quasi-stationary boundary
is bowled further S of S new england with the latest forecast
suite, acting as the focus of warm-moist S inflow beneath modest
w winds and shear lending to the development of thunderstorm
complexes. With drier air maintained in place by N flow, have
lowered pops. Think any interior activity initiated along the
slopes of high terrain with whatever moisture is available will
be well N W across upstate ny vt nh.

Expect increasing clouds with time subsequent of cloud tops from
convection S with the chance for some rain overnight into Sunday
morning across ct ri SE ma, greatest chances further s. The air-
mass of +17c air around h85 unchanged lending to highs around
the upper 80s to low 90s, some relief along the shores given sea-
breezes as winds will be light during the day, begins to filter
out towards Sunday as cooler air slides slightly S with increasing
n NE winds per isallobaric response of a weak wave low along the
quasi-stationary boundary. Lows once again around the mid 60s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Big picture...

the longwave large scale pattern across the northern usa remains as
it has been... Ridge west and trough east. If there is a variation
in this theme, it is that the ridge should shift east to the
rockies high plains later next week and the eastern trough shifts
east to the maritimes.

Two shortwaves in the flow will affect new england in the next seven
days. One starting over alberta canada will cross our area late
Monday or Tuesday. The other coming from the gulf of alaska will
come ashore this weekend and reach new england late in the week.

Model mass fields showed notable differences in handling the
shortwaves last night, but the 12z runs have come into better
agreement, especially regarding the early-week shortwave. Confidence
is moderate-high for the early-week shortwave and low-moderate for
the late-week shortwave.

Details...

Sunday...

fair weather as high pressure from hudsons bay builds over maine and
the maritimes. This brings an east flow to our area which should
keep surface temperatures cooler than normal. All models show a low
pressure wave passing south of our area. The nam12 and GFS grids
show no pops and no qpf, while the ECMWF shows lingering precip over
ct-ri-se mass. Based on the position of the ridge, we favor the
drier solution.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

the early-week shortwave moves a surface low from the great lakes
toward new england with increasing lift ahead of the system. Expect
clouds to fill in, with increasing chance of precip, especially
after midnight. We have adjusted pops to show this trend. The
shortwave moves across our area Tuesday morning, so we will expect
showers through that time with the highest pops during Monday.

Clouds, showers and the low level east flow should keep daytime
temps no higher than the 70s.

Wednesday...

high pressure moves overhead, bringing dry weather and dew points in
the 50s. Temps at 850 mb will be 8-10c, so expect MAX temps in the
70s.

Thursday-Friday...

the late-week shortwave moves across our area. Current model timing
would bring the shortwave and surface cold front through during
Thursday afternoon evening, but timing has varied a little from one
model run to the next, so potential exists for the system to move
through a little earlier or a little later. Once it does move
through, it will be followed by an area of drier weather... Probably
Friday.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Into tonight...

vfr. Sct-bkn mid-high cigs. Low risk MVFR-ifr for ack. Winds
diminishing, becoming light out of the nw.

Saturday into Saturday night...

vfr. Sct mid-high CIGS initially, lowering towards low-endVFR
overnight with a low risk of a shra. Light NW winds allowing for
daytime sea-breezes. Increasing by evening with breezy N NE flow.

Kbos terminal... Sea-breezes forecast around 16z Saturday. As the
sea-breeze comes ashore, winds are likely to be a bit stronger
around 6-10 kts.

Kbdl terminal...VFR.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday...

vfr with an east wind. Ceilings vsbys lower to MVFR Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday...

MVFR ceilings vsbys with areas of ifr in fog and heavier downpours.

Scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon. A cold front moves through
during Monday night with winds shifting out of the north. Drier air
moves in during Tuesday with conditions improving toVFR.

Wednesday...

vfr. Areas of ifr in early morning fog. Winds become variable with
sea breezes along the coasts.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ...

into tonight...

winds diminishing, becoming light out of the nw. Seas below 4
feet. A risk of lower visibility with fog over the waters S E of
the immediate nantucket shore.

Saturday into Saturday night...

light NW winds allowing for daytime sea-breezes, increasing into
evening becoming breezy out of the N NE with gusts up to 20 kts
as a weak wave low passes W to E well S of the S waters. As the
low passes, there is a chance of showers across all S waters. Seas
below 4 feet.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Low pressure south of the waters Sunday moves out to sea. Broader
area of low pressure from the great lakes brings showers and
scattered thunder to the waters from Sunday night through early
Tuesday. East winds lead the system, then turn from the north as
the weather system moves out to sea Tuesday.

Winds will remain less than 25 knots through the period. Seas will
be less than 5 feet on most waters through the period. Seas may
reach 5 feet on the southern outer waters, where a small craft
advisory may be needed.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi96 min S 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 65°F1 ft1007.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi50 min SSE 9.7 G 12 75°F 72°F1 ft1007.8 hPa (-0.9)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi52 min 89°F 1007.1 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi40 min S 13 G 14 78°F 1007.1 hPa (-1.0)62°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi115 min WSW 5.1 89°F 1008 hPa63°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi34 min 68°F1 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi96 min S 12 G 14 73°F 70°F1 ft1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi47 minWSW 910.00 miFair88°F63°F43%1007.2 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi46 minW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F61°F38%1007.9 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi46 minSW 1010.00 miFair90°F63°F41%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE5CalmSW4CalmCalmSW3SW4NW3NW4NW3W4NW5NW7W7NW7NW5W9W7W10W9W7SW8W9
1 day agoW8W3NW5NW3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmW6W5W46SW9W6W8SW7SW10SE6Calm
2 days agoS8S5S9S5SW4SW3CalmSW4W4CalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSE3SE9SE10S8SW6W12
G17
W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     9.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:09 PM EDT     10.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.33.81.3-0.5-0.70.52.44.778.79.28.46.84.62.30.4-0.20.82.95.37.89.910.810.3

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.40.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.50.50.40.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.