Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 4:54 AM EDT (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 322 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning...then light rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201903202000;;638542 FZUS63 KDTX 200722 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.80 inches will track southeast from Lake Superior this morning to southern Lake Huron by tonight. This system will bring a period of rain with gusty southerly winds this afternoon and evening. This low will then weaken as it move into eastern Ontario on Thursday. The central great lakes will remain between low pressure tracking across central Canada and high pressure building across the plains through the end of the week. This will allow for a period of stronger northwest winds on Friday. LCZ460-202000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 200720
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
320 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Discussion
Near term today through tonight
as of 320 am edt... The first early morning of spring (although
technically does not start until around 6pm this evening) continues
to start off quiet across the region as surface high pressure
continues to slide eastward into the mid-atlantic region new
england. Generally clear skies across the region will gradually give
way to increasing cloud cover as the morning progresses ahead of two
pieces of energy approaching from the west.

One piece of energy will be associated with a northern stream wave
diving south from the northern great lakes, which continues to look
fairly robust on water vapor satellite imagery. This feature will
interact with a piece of shortwave energy ejecting out of the
central plains, with water vapor imagery also depicting a compact
circulation associated with this feature. The end result will be the
development of a weak surface low that tracks northeast across lower
michigan later today as the upper-level PV anomalies phase.

Increasing midlevel height falls will result in a modest
low midlevel mass adjustment as a LLJ increasing to around 40 knots
helps transport increasing moisture over the region as pwat values
increase over 0.50 inch. Isentropic analysis depicts modest ascent
in the 1000-700 hpa layer, but bulk of dynamic lift will correspond
to arrival of height falls this afternoon evening.

Hi-res and local probabilistic guidance are in good agreement with
precipitation holding off until after 1pm, with temperatures warming
well into the 40s and even near 50 across portions of the detroit
metro resulting in precipitation falling as rain. Coverage looks to
be widespread, especially from 3pm-8pm when the bulk of the rain
will fall. Overall intensity will generally be light in nature, with
best coverage of more moderate rain elements focused north of the m-
59 corridor. For more on expected rainfall amounts, see the
hydrology section below.

In addition to rain today, southwest flow will strengthen and become
gusty at times during the afternoon, with peak gusts 20-30 mph. Rain
will transition to more of a showery nature this evening as the
northern stream trough axis swings through. As the boundary layer
cools with loss of daytime heating, a few wet snowflakes will mix in
at times, especially north of the i-69 corridor. Not expecting much
in the way of accumulation with any wet snow activity outside of
maybe a dusting on some grassy surfaces. A weak cold front will move
south across the region tonight with winds becoming northwest in its
wake. Cold air advection will be minimal with the frontal passage
(850 hpa temps falling from -2 to -4 c) helping to keep low
temperatures at bay and settling in the low mid 30s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
deepening longwave trough over the eastern seaboard will result in
north northwest flow setting up aloft during the day Thursday.

Shortwave ridging and strong anticyclonic vorticity advection will
ensure that Thursday is dry with high temperatures in the 40s.

Trailing shortwave energy will race south through the mean longwave
trough Thursday night into early Friday morning, and will brush
eastern areas (particularly the thumb) with scattered rain snow
showers. 00z gfs ECMWF are a little more aggressive with coverage,
with daytime heating during the day Friday potentially resulting in
activity lingering into the afternoon hours. The trailing wave will
usher in a brief period of colder temperatures Friday as the low-
level thermal trough swings through. Highs look to only reach the
upper 30s for most areas, with lower 40s possible closer the ohio
border.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
highly amplified ridging will then set up over the great lakes and
midwest for the weekend, with southeast michigan residing on the
eastern edge of the ridging. This placement will ensure dry weather
with abundant sunshine throughout much of the weekend. Building
heights thicknesses aloft will allow temperatures to rebound, with
highs Saturday back in the 40s, with upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday.

Ridging will break down late Sunday into Sunday night, with the
potential for precipitation along a developing cold front that will
sag south across the region. GFS continues to be more aggressive
with coverage, while the ECMWF remains drier. Given the overall
synoptic setup across north america, which looks to feature a quasi-
omega block pattern over canada with strong high pressure moving
from manitoba into the northern plains great lakes, will side with
the ECMWF solution as this pattern should favor the bulk of
available moisture remaining south of the region. Aforementioned
high pressure then becomes established over the region for early mid
next week with seasonable temperatures.

Marine
A low pressure system will settle across the region through tonight.

Moderate southwest winds will exist today locally in advance of this
system. Gusts 20 to 25 knots at times. A diminishing gradient as
the low passes through will allow winds to ease tonight. Modest
winds Thursday, before strengthening from the northwest Thursday
night. Strongest northwest winds noted Friday, when a period of
gusts to low end gales will be possible. Expect ice breakup to
continue with the changing wind conditions and relatively mild
weather.

Hydrology
Light rain will overspread the region this afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals of two to four tenths of an inch are expected. Most
mainstem river levels have subsided significantly over the last
several days. The additional precipitation will only serve to slow
the steady decrease with no additional river flooding expected.

Susceptible collection areas, that likely already contain run-off
water, will swell with the additional precipitation.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1146 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
aviation...

the onset of nighttime cooling will lead to a clearing of the
remnant diurnal CU field over the next couple hours and will lower
the south-southwest winds speeds around shortly after sunset. SE mi
will remain under the influence of departing sfc high pressure
through the night. So other than a few high clouds, this system will
sustain clear skies into early Wed morning. A deepening low pressure
system will advance into lower mi Wed afternoon evening. This system
and its associated moisture transport will allow widespread rain,
with steadily lowering ceilings, to advance across SE mi during the
course of the afternoon Wednesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft late Wed afternoon and evening.

* high in precip type being all rain Wed afternoon and evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi65 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1024.7 hPa
AGCM4 16 mi37 min 33°F 35°F1023.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi37 min 35°F 1023 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi43 min SW 8 G 9.9 34°F 1023 hPa25°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
W8
NW9
W8
W7
W8
G11
NW6
G9
W5
W3
G8
NE3
G9
NE8
E8
E12
E12
E7
NE4
SW5
S6
SW7
G10
S5
G8
SW8
G11
SW7
SW9
SW8
G11
SW7
G11
1 day
ago
W5
W7
NW7
NW7
G10
NW2
G6
N3
G6
E7
E5
NW11
G16
E11
E9
E8
E9
E4
E6
W1
SW6
SW7
SW7
G10
SW8
SW7
SW5
W5
W6
2 days
ago
W4
W5
W6
W6
SW3
W4
SW5
G8
SW8
G11
S6
G12
SW10
G13
SW9
G15
S8
G12
SW9
SW7
G11
SW6
G9
SW7
SW7
SW5
G9
SW7
SW5
SW6
W6
SW5
W6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi2 hrsSSW 410.00 miFair28°F26°F94%1025.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi62 minS 510.00 miFair31°F21°F69%1024.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi60 minSW 410.00 miFair34°F22°F64%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrW5W4W4SW3W4W4SW54S8SE8SE10SE11SE10SE7S8S9S7SW7S6SW5W3SW4S4S5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW7NW4NW85SE8SE7S8SE5SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmS5W3SW4SW5W4W4
2 days agoSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmS4S7S8SE10SE8SE10SE10SE10SE9SE7SE5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.