Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:12 AM EDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 347 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the southwest in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northwest in the evening. Becoming partly cloudy late in the evening. A chance of light showers early in the morning. Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon. Showers until early evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708200800;;636939 FZUS63 KDTX 191947 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.00 inches, over the upper Mississippi River Valley will build into the upper Ohio River Valley tonight. It will then remain centered over the Mid Atlantic through the rest of the weekend. LCZ460-200800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 192307
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
707 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Aviation
High pressure will bringVFR conditions throughout the forecast
period even as it splits off to the east during the day Sunday.

Light variable winds will become southwest under 10 knots on the
backside of this high by mid late morning with just a few diurnal
cumulus possible within a rather dry airmass.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 251 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017
discussion...

upper level trough axis cold pool (-15 c at 500 mb per apx sounding)
pushing east of the central great lakes this afternoon. Modest
pocket of moisture in and around saginaw bay could trigger isolated
activity, but loss of daytime heating and increasing upper level
northwest confluent flow warming mid levels should end activity
around 00z if anything does in fact go up. Large surface high center
to track near the southern michigan border tonight and into the
eastern ohio valley tomorrow. Surface dew pts have slipped into the
55 to 60 degree range this afternoon, which looks to be a good target
for mins overnight across most locations, which is probably cool
enough for patchy fog around inland lakes with calm winds.

Southwest return flow around the high tomorrow to allow temps to
push into the mid 80s based off 850 mb temps reaching around 16 c.

Even warmer airmass in place for Monday ahead of a weak cold front,
as 850 mb temps progged to climb to around 19 c, suggesting maxes
approaching 90 degrees. None-the-less, increasing moisture and clouds
expected, along with the eclipse during peak heating, anticipating
maxes more in the 85 to 88 degree range. In fact, main moisture surge
(per 850- 700 mb theta-e fields) look to be occuring during the
morning hours, with moisture axis (pw values around 1.75 inches) in
place by 00z Tuesday. It's possible there may be enough instability
to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms, but warm layer in 5-10 kft
layer may just enough to cap activity with no clear cut low level
convergence trigger, as 500 mb heights are also around 588 dam. Much
better chance Monday night with increasing height falls, as deepening
low pressure pushes into the western great lakes.

A cold front pushing northwest to southeast will provide additional
rain and thunderstorms chances through Tuesday morning, with
confidence regarding precipitation further enhanced as an amplified
upper-level trough with a strong embedded upper-level disturbance
pushes over the area aloft. Likely rain and thunderstorm chances
will diminish throughout Tuesday afternoon as winds veer from the
southwest to the northwest following the cold front, allowing dry,
stable air to enter michigan. This cold front will have a
significant impact on temperature and humidity. Daytime highs
forecasted in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday are expected to
drop into the lower 70s for a high on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Likewise, dew points in the upper 60s on Tuesday morning and
afternoon are expected to diminish into the low to mid 50s both
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will gradually climb back into
the mid to upper 70s by the weekend. Otherwise, a broad surface high
pressure and ridging aloft will look to keep conditions dry heading
into the weekend.

Marine...

modest northwesterly flow will back to southwesterly by early
Sunday. Speeds will remain moderate - with sustained winds in the 10-
15kt range. The offshore nature will preclude waves from becoming
much of an issue. The next significant weather maker will arrive
Monday night and persist through Tuesday. Moderate northwest flow
with higher waves will set up behind the cold front by Tuesday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi73 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi73 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 73°F1014.6 hPa (+1.6)
AGCM4 16 mi43 min 67°F 1015.2 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi43 min 70°F 1014.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi43 min WSW 6 G 7 68°F 1014.7 hPa58°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi15 minSW 510.00 miFair64°F58°F83%1015.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1015.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair69°F56°F64%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW5SW4W3W4SW5SW5W5W6W9NW8NW9NW7W9NW10W8NW11NW8W4NW4SW3SW4SW3SW5
1 day agoSW9SW8SW8SW7SW7SW8
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2 days agoE7E5E6E6E6SE7E8S9SE6SE9SE6SE9S9S5S7S10SE10S12S9S7S6SW8SW10SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.