Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:03 AM EST (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 9:46AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 359 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening...then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Light snow in the evening. Freezing rain and a chance of light sleet. Rain after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Light rain until late afternoon...then light rain likely late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy becoming partly Sunny late in the morning becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201901230900;;765192 FZUS63 KDTX 222059 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.70 inches remains on track to travel from the southern Plains into northern Illinois by Wednesday morning, deepening slightly down to 29.60 inches. Low pressure will then quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes into Quebec Wednesday into Thursday morning as it continues to deepen down to a pressure of 29.40 inches. The strengthening low pressure system will allow gales to persist across Lake Huron through Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will then fill in behind the low pressure system during the later half of this week as a broad high pressure system fills in across the Plains down into the Tennessee Valley. LCZ460-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231049
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
549 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Aviation
During the early morning hours, there was a consolidation in the
precipitation to a band of rain freezing rain between ptk and fnt,
with precipitation waning or even ending elsewhere. Regional radar
shows a second batch of precipitation heading toward SE mi with the
approach of the low pressure center, which will overspread the
terminals between 12z and 15z. With sfc temps above freezing,
precipitation will be all rain from fnt southward. As for mbs, the
next round of precip will largely be snow, with thermal profiles
suggesting a change over to rain by late morning. Ongoing low level
moisture advection will sustain ifr and some lifr ceilings into the
afternoon. The surface low will pass across mbs around 18z, with
deep layer moisture stripping away leaving drizzle and low clouds to
persist through the afternoon. The associated cold front will pass
across SE mi around 00z, leading to a brief uptick in winds as they
veer from south-southwest to west.

For dtw... Temperatures will make a slow climb into the upper 30s
toward noon. The coverage and intensity of the rain will increase
during the morning before tapering to drizzle early this afternoon.

There will be a modest uptick in the south winds this afternoon as
metro enters the warm sector. This will also be accompanied by a
slight uptick in ceiling heights.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in precip type being all rain through the rest of the day.

* high for ceilings below 5000 today and tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 235 am est Wed jan 23 2019
discussion...

the remnant dry arctic airmass in the low levels has remained
stubborn, with dew pts still holding in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees as of 1 am, allowing for evaporative cooling and the rise in
surface temperatures has been slow, but steady. The main surface low
is now tracking through northern illinois, and temperatures have
risen above freezing across southwest lower michigan and extending
east into the i-94 corridor.

The strong low level jet last evening was aligned sw-ne and the core
was just south of eight mile road, leading to the bulk of
precipitation falling south of i-69 with good 850 mb fgen. However,
as the upper level forcing and low enters the state this morning, it
appears there will still be just enough cold air to support snow
across midland bay counties and into huron county through and past
12z as the low level baroclinic zone tightens up, and do think a
good burst of snow will occur and will be extending the advisory to
noon for northern third of the cwa, but especially geared toward the
far northern counties, as local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance
does suggest 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation. With support from
arw and nam, will carry storm totals of 3 to 6 inches before
precipitation tapers off early this afternoon or temps rise AOA 32
degrees.

For middle southern tier of counties, will continue with the
advisory til 8 am, but temperatures have already reached around 32
degrees. Keep in mind, frozen gravel dirt roads will likely remain
very icy, even as temps rise into the mid 30s.

Rain this morning for most areas will taper off as the mid level dry
slot overspreads the CWA this afternoon, but still could be enough
low level moisture to support drizzle very light rain. Still
expecting highs to reach around 40 lower 40s based on upstream obs
and southwest winds kicking in for majority of the cwa. Exception
being tri-cities region where the low is expected to track, which
could hold temps in the 30s.

Winds veering around to the west-northwest will allow good cold
advection to kick in this evening behind the departing low, with 850
mb temps lowering into the negative lower teens around midnight. Any
residual moisture on untreated roadways will likely freeze as min
temps look to bottom in the lower 20s.

Digging upper level trough pushing into the western great lakes
during the the day on Thursday, and the forcing 850 mb theta-e ahead
of this trough, coupled with the sufficiently cold 850 mb temps,
dropping into the negative upper teens over lake michigan, should
support a blossoming pattern of snow showers in the afternoon into
the evening hours, as inversion heights are up around 7 kft. Steep
low level lapse rates decent CAPE (25-50 j kg) intersecting the dgz
will support light accumulations, 0.5-1.0" on average.

Bitter cold will continue to filter in for Thursday night into
Friday, as 850 mb temps bottom out around -25 c once again. Unlike
our last arctic airmass, the flow is westerly with this one, so
clouds modification from lake michigan may be able to hold temps
above zero Friday night, especially as clipper system tracks through
the northern ohio valley, bringing additional mid high clouds. Even
if temperatures somehow manage to hold in the zero to 5 f range,
enough wind 10-15 mph to support wind chills down around
-15 f, and there is a good chance wind chill advisory will be needed.

The clipper looks to be tracking south of the state, so not planning
on adversing more than perhaps an inch by the southern michigan
border. Re-enforcing shot of arctic air to follow behind the low for
Saturday with 850 mb temps holding in the low mid negative 20s.

There looks to be an opportunity for skies to briefly clear out
Saturday evening as flow GOES southwest, and temps below zero look
possible, but clouds should then be increasing once again as another
trough axis pushes into the western great lakes, with low pressure
sliding through the eastern ohio valley, a near miss.

The cold pool 500 mb trough axis extending from the deep upper level
low over ontario will move overhead on Sunday, with what looks to be
a stronger clipper arriving on Monday. Euro and other models have
been consistent with this system for several cycles now, and with
favorable thermal profiles and high snow to liquid ratios, a
significant snowstorm appears possible.

Marine...

low pressure will lift from the southern plains to northern illinois
by Wednesday morning. The low will then traverse central lower
michigan during the day Wednesday. There will be a strengthening
southerly gradient ahead of this low pressure system. Gale force
winds will persist into early this evening. While probabilities
remain high that gusts will reach 35 knot gales, the probability for
gusts to 40 knots gales is low. The winds will gradually decrease
tonight due both to a subtle weakening of the gradient and low level
warming, thus reducing over-lake mixing depths. Winds will veer to
the west-northwest late Wednesday into Wed night as the surface low
departs east of lake huron.

Another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into Friday. This will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

Hydrology...

precipitation will come to an end across southeast michigan during
the course of the day. Total liquid equivalent precip amounts are
likely to be highly variable across the region, ranging from a
quarter inch up to three quarters of an inch. The combination of
melting snow and rain may lead to some ponding of water on urban
roads across metro detroit. Otherwise, no flooding concerns are
expected.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for miz047>049-053>055.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am est this morning for miz060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 16 mi46 min 33°F 32°F1012.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi46 min 34°F 1012.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi46 min SSW 9.9 G 14 34°F 1011.9 hPa33°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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N13
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi68 minS 710.00 miLight Rain33°F32°F100%1013.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi71 minSSE 54.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1013.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi68 minSSE 43.00 miUnknown Precip33°F31°F92%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12SE14SE15
G24
SE17SE16SE12S12S13SE11S12SE9S8S8S4S6S5S8S6S6S4S8S5S7
1 day agoNW9NW9NW7NW10NW11W11W11W9W7NW6NW4N4CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmS4SW4CalmCalmCalmS8S8
2 days agoN19
G25
NW14
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NW13NW15N23
G33
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G30
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NW14NW7NW9NW14
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NW10NW9NW10NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.