Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:41PM Friday October 20, 2017 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:28AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1108 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy...then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201710202015;;140554 FZUS63 KDTX 201508 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1108 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, over southern Lower Michigan early this morning will slide east into the Mid Atlantic late today. This high will then move off the East Coast Tomorrow, allowing a cold front, 29.90 inches, to move through the Central Great Lakes Sunday night. LCZ460-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201751
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
151 pm edt Fri oct 20 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail for this TAF period under south winds
around 5-10 knots. Winds will begin to decrease into the evening.

Few clouds except for occasional few-sct high clouds around 25kft.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 301 am edt Fri oct 20 2017
discussion...

there will be a slight amplification to the mid level ridge axis
extending from the SE us into the ERN great lakes today as a
progressive mid level trough axis moves into the NRN rockies. The
influence of the low level anti cyclone across the upper ohio valley
and mid atlantic will sustain very dry air across SE mi today, while
southerly return flow advects a little warmer air mass into lower
mi. In fact, upstream high temps yesterday were well into the 70s.

Despite the relatively cold early morning temps, the low level warm
air advection under full Sun today should boost highs into the low
to mid 70s. The southerly gradient will increase tonight as the low
level anticylone shifts toward the east coast. This will suppress
the degree of radiation cooling, supporting min temps mainly in the
50s. Despite some occasional high clouds on Saturday, the southerly
gradient will offer a little better mixing and thus support very
warm conditions, with highs well into the 70s.

The 00z model suite indicate the cold front associated with the
progressive mid level trough will push across SE mi late Sun Sunday
night. Energy within the base of this trough is forecast to cut off
across the lower ms valley, while the better northern stream energy
lifts well north of the great lakes. Nonetheless, a narrow plume of
deep layer moisture along behind the surface front and some upper
jet support likely sustaining some degree of mid level fgen will
support rain across the area during the late Sunday to early mon
time frame. Warm and breezy conditions can be expected through much
of Sun in advance of the sfc cold front.

While the GFS and ECMWF agree in northern stream trough
amplification on Monday, there are differences with respect to the
timing and degree of phasing with the remnant upper low over the
deep south. The ECMWF phases this energy more quickly, the result
being a prolonged period of rain across SE mi Monday into tues. The
gfs on the other hand is slower to phase the systems, resulting in
the better rain potential well east of the forecast area. Obviously
with these differences, chance type pops will be maintained in the
forecast Mon into tues. The northern stream trough will drive colder
air into the region during the early portion of the work week.

Current forecast projections suggest the flow will remain
progressive, with a brief warm up possible on thurs before the next
northern stream wave drives another influx of cold air into the
region.

Marine...

high pressure sliding east will allow for southerly winds right
through the weekend, topping out between 20 to 25 knots over the
second half of the weekend, ahead of a cold front. This cold front
looks to be moving through Sunday night, bringing with it showers
and wind shift to the west early next week, and topping out around
30 knots by Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi62 min SSE 7 G 13 67°F 1024.7 hPa (-1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi62 min S 7.8 G 7.8 63°F 59°F1024 hPa (-1.1)
AGCM4 16 mi44 min 64°F 1023.9 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi44 min 67°F 1023.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi44 min SSW 8 G 13 67°F 1023 hPa41°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi64 minS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds65°F41°F42%1024.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi69 minS 910.00 miFair67°F43°F42%1024.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi67 minS 610.00 miFair67°F36°F32%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W8W11W9W7W4W4W5W4W5W5W5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW7S7S12
1 day agoS10SW12S14
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2 days agoSW13SW14
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SW9SW8SW8SW8SW7SW7SW6SW6SW6SW5SW4SW5S6SW6SW7SW5SW8S10SW11
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.