Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:46PM Friday April 26, 2019 1:02 AM CDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:04AMMoonset 11:38AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cdt Friday through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Periods of showers after midnight, then scattered showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the morning. Chance of rain through the day. Snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201904261000;;496162 FZUS53 KMKX 260406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-261000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260536 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1236 am cdt Fri apr 26 2019

Update
Skies are clearing quickly behind this precip across southern wi
tonight. Wind are diminishing quickly as well. Winds aloft will be
light over central wi for a short period of time and then will
increase out of the northwest just off the surface late tonight.

Areas of fog are developing in the area of light winds just west
and northwest of madison, but this will dissipate as winds
increase aloft.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Areas of fog are likely west of madison for the next couple of
hours. Then expect the fog to clear and a brief period of low
level wind shear late tonight as northwest winds increase just
above the surface. Winds will become very gusty out of the
northwest by mid morning and diminish later this evening.

Accumulating snow is expected on Saturday. That should spread
into madison by mid morning and milwaukee by late morning. The
axis of heaviest snow looks like it will be along the i-94
corridor and highest snowfall rates should be in the afternoon
hours, perhaps lingering into the early evening.

Prev discussion (issued 944 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019)
update... Showers continue to progress steadily east. There has
been some redevelopment on the back edge, so still thinking
showers may linger in eastern areas a little longer, ending
between midnight and 2 am or so.

00z NAM remains consistent in track of low pressure and low level
temperature profile across southern wisconsin for Saturday.

Initial light rain snow mix should change to mostly snow as
stronger lift spreads in late morning and afternoon.

Marine... Brief period of gusty north to northwest winds expected
overnight, with a few gusts to 25 knots in the nearshore waters.

Not expecting the gusty winds to last long enough to warrant a
small craft advisory. Tightening pressure gradient associated with
low pressure passing through the eastern great lakes will result
in a more prolonged period of gusty northwest winds on Friday,
into Friday night. Hence status quo on small craft advisory for
the nearshore waters and gale watch for the north open waters on
Friday.

Prev discussion... (issued 644 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019)
update... Showers associated with sharpening mid-level trof
spreading slowly east, should reach the milwaukee area in next 1-3
hours. Showers may slow down and persist a little longer over
eastern areas as low pressure deepens to the southeast of
wisconsin as it moves from southern in into the eastern great
lakes overnight. Never the less, expect showers to end around or
shortly after midnight in eastern areas.

Outflow boundary from earlier convection has slowed its southeast
progression so south to east winds will last a little longer in
the milwaukee to kenosha area.

Aviation(00z tafs)... Showers will spread east across the area
this evening, tapering off from west to east. Showers may slow
down in eastern areas this evening resulting in a period of lower
MVFR ceilings for several hours. Also, a 1-3 hour period of gusty
winds will accompany the showers, with gusts to 25 kts possible.

Clearing skies are expected later tonight into early Friday.

Prev discussion... (issued 349 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019)
discussion...

this evening through Friday... Forecast confidence is high...

cold front is pushing through this afternoon. A few isolated
showers and storms have popped up along the front. Upper level
divergence, vorticity, and frontogenesis will push through the
area late this afternoon through the evening bringing the main
rain focus behind the front.

Upper level support will shift east of the area late tonight with
drier air filtering in for Friday. The low level jet will
increase throughout the day Friday and sunny skies will allow us
to mix down northwesterly gusts up to 35 mph.

Friday night through Saturday night... Forecast confidence is
medium...

winter strikes back, again!!! A strong low pressure system will
move to our south Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Newest
models suggest that southern wisconsin will see mostly snow from
this system as 850mb and 925mb temperatures should remain below
freezing throughout most of the CWA during the duration of the
event. Surface temperatures will likely remain in the 30-35 degree
range through the event, which should make for 3-7 inches of
accumulation on grassy surfaces with a few inches of slushy type
snow on roads.

This event will consist of a strong upper level shortwave digging
into the midwest with strong vorticity advection in association
with a bit of a coupled jet situation, which generates strong
omega values. In addition, there is ample moisture throughout the
column with a fairly long period in the dendritic growth zone. The
low and mid levels look very favorable as well with strong waa,
strong frontogenesis and some low level jet influence.

There is still some complications with the time of the day and the
impact this may have on road conditions. However, given the
likelihood for heavier snow bands, rates should overcome the
these concerns for the majority of this event. In addition, given
that this is a tightly wound thermodynamic system slight
variations in the track can greatly impact where the most snow
will fall, thus there is still some uncertainty in snow totals.

Assuming this forecast holds together, we may need to issue a
watch advisory for Saturday afternoon evening over the next 24
hours.

Sunday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium...

Sunday will be a return to dry weather but cold air behind the
system and fresh snow on the ground have caused us to lower
temperatures despite snow mostly melting Sunday.

Active pattern for next week with fast mid level flow and quite a
bit of uncertainty. Monday will see another system roll through
the region. This is expected to be a warmer system at this time
bringing rain to our CWA though things could change still with
some potential for a cooler trend. Most of the QPF looks to remain
to our south. Guidance after Monday becomes much more uncertain
where potentially more rain arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday
with another system possibly rolling through on Thursday.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

expect ceilings to gradually drop as rain
approaches the area. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is expected
with this rainfall. We are watching for a 1 to 3 hour period behind
the front this afternoon for gusts up to 25 knots but confidence
is low. There is also a slight chance for thunder with activity
late this afternoon and evening but confidence was not high enough
to include in tafs.

Conditions will quickly return theVFR as rain ends with clear
skies expected for Friday. Expect gusty northwest winds to build
late Friday morning into the afternoon.

Marine...

showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected this
evening associated with a cold front. Gusty northwest winds will
follow behind the front for a brief period before settling back
down overnight. Northwest winds will pick back up in the morning
across the region with gusts up to 25 knots in the nearshore,
which has resulted in a small craft advisory from 9 am to 7 pm
Friday. Winds will weaken overnight Friday. For the open waters
have issued a gale watch for Friday afternoon and evening due to
expected northwest gales in the far northern portion of the lake.

The next concern will be Saturday when a strong low pressure
system pushes through the region likely bring strong winds from
the north on the backside of the system. This will likely bring
gale force gusts to the southern half of the lake Saturday evening
and overnight, thus a gale watch is likely for this period. In
addition, a small craft advisory will also likely be needed for a
period as well.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from this afternoon through this evening for lmz261-
362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 7 pm cdt this
evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Cronce
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... mbk
Saturday night through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi62 min N 23 G 28 50°F 1006.8 hPa (-0.0)
45187 8 mi22 min N 16 G 21 46°F 42°F3 ft
45186 15 mi22 min NNW 18 G 27 48°F 45°F3 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi48 min N 17 G 26 51°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi22 min 50°F
45174 33 mi22 min NNW 18 G 23 46°F 44°F5 ft1006.3 hPa46°F
FSTI2 43 mi122 min NNW 48 50°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi32 min NNW 29 G 32 49°F 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi69 minN 12 G 236.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1007.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi67 minN 9 G 228.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F86%1006.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi69 minN 18 G 278.00 miLight Rain and Breezy50°F46°F89%1007.6 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi67 minN 910.00 miLight Rain48°F46°F94%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm46E8SE10E6E7E9SE7N4N4N5N12
G19
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1 day agoCalmNE3E6E3E3E4SE5S6S8S7S64SE9SE12SE10S9S8SE7S3CalmS3S5S5SW3
2 days agoW14W10NW9NW10NW10
G18
NW9NW12NW8NW9N11W5N86E9E9E9E8SE8SE4SE3E7E8--E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.