Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 23, 2018 10:09 PM CDT (03:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 5 knots backing west after midnight, then becoming northwest early in the morning. Chance of sprinkles late in the evening. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then veering northeast in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ646 Expires:201806241000;;013617 FZUS53 KMKX 240205 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-241000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240251
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
951 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Update
Isolated showers south of madison will gradually diminish, with
mostly cloudy skies continuing overnight. Given satellite trends,
increased cloud cover and raised overnight min temps just a tad.

Otherwise the forecast is in good shape for the remainder of the
night.

Marine
Light winds tonight will shift to the northeast on Sunday morning
as a front passes through. A period of higher winds and waves are
expected on Monday night into Tuesday, with small craft advisory
conditions possible.

Prev discussion (issued 559 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018)
update...

added a chance for sprinkles and a slight chance for light rain
showers to western southern portions of our area for this
evening. Not seeing any ground truth that the precipitation to our
west is reaching the ground, but it's possible a little may do
so. One negative to seeing any precipitation reach the surface is
the rather high cloud bases from which the rain is falling and the
drier layer of air below this cloud deck.

Otherwise increased cloud cover across most of the area through
mid evening as the mid-level cloud deck appears to be hanging
tough at the moment, with some eastward progression. The scattered
cumulus deck is eroding from around waukesha east as the lake
breeze progresses inland. Expect it to wash out shortly within
the next hour or so.

Otherwise the forecast is on track. Will assess overnight
temperature trends a bit later with an eye towards possible
adjustments due to cloud cover.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

sprinkles and an isolated rain shower are possible this evening
for mainly madison and points southwest. Mid to high level clouds
should persist overnight. Light winds tonight will become
northeast tomorrow morning with lake clouds potentially reaching
lakeshore areas during this time. The best chance of MVFR or
lower ceilings appears to be north of milwaukee, but it's not
impossible that some MVFR could reach mke Sunday morning. Kept
this out of the TAF for now due to low confidence. Otherwise look
for diurnal cumulus clouds once again tomorrow afternoon with
bases around 4 kft.

Prev discussion... (issued 340 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018)
short term...

tonight and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A 500 mb shortwave trough passing south of the area through this
evening may generate some light showers that clip the far
southwestern parts of the area. Left forecast dry due to low
confidence at this time.

Cloud trends may be tricky into tonight, and would affect low
temperatures and possible wisconsin river valley fog. Some middle
to high clouds will pass north through western parts of the area
into this evening. There could be more middle to high clouds that
push through at times overnight into Sunday. Kept forecast partly
cloudy for now.

Lows are forecast in the middle to upper 50s, and may be a little
too cold if clouds linger. Mentioned the wisconsin river valley
fog between 09z and 13z Sunday, with light winds and lingering dew
points in the middle 50s.

A backdoor cold front surface trough then sweeps southwest
through the area Sunday morning, though not expecting it to have
much effect on temperatures. With partial sunshine, should get
into the lower 80s well inland, with 70s closer to lake michigan
with the onshore winds.

Sunday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is
medium.

Easterly flow Sunday night into Monday should keep most of the
area dry. Highs Monday may be below seasonal normals, as middle to
high clouds spread into the area ahead of the next low pressure
system. Onshore winds will continue to keep areas near the lake
cooler.

A lead 500 mb shortwave trough slides northeast through the area
Monday afternoon and evening, which coincides with warm air
advection focusing over the area. This continues into later Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The low level jet points more into
areas northwest of southern wisconsin Monday night, though the
warm and moist airmass will be transported in. This should bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night,
with the highest pops later Monday night. Elevated convection
would be expected, with good deep layer bulk effective
shear, though elevated CAPE values are modest.

Best chances for more surface-based convection would be Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The warm front moves north into or through
the area, followed by the surface low and cold front. There is
some model disagreement with the low pressure track, with the
ecmwf taking it east across the area, with the GFS canadian a
little further to the north.

Either way, there should be rather robust upward vertical motion,
with the 500 mb shortwave trough passing close by. There should
be decent mean layer CAPE values if enough sunshine occurs, though
this may vary if clouds from convection linger. Deep layer bulk
shear averages around 30 knots or so from the models, which is
borderline for severe storms.

Some severe storms are possible, depending on how unstable the
airmass can get. Will continue to mention this potential in the
hazardous weather outlook. Continued likely pops for thunderstorms
for most of Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

Long term...

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are showing 500 mb flow transitioning from a more zonal
flow pattern Wednesday and Thursday to a more southwesterly flow
by Saturday. This should allow for a general transition to
southerly low level flow into the later portions of next week,
which should bring warm and humid conditions into the region.

There are indications of showers and thunderstorms occurring later
in the week, near a warm front setting up near or north of the
area. Kept blended model pops and temperatures for now, until
better trends can be established with the longer range models.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

a few showers may occur in southwestern portions of the area into
early this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated into
Sunday. Middle to high clouds may linger into the evening and
overnight. There is some uncertainty with how much of these clouds
will linger during this time and into Sunday. Onshore winds will
be light into this evening near lake michigan. Light winds are
expected tonight into Sunday, becoming northeast again with the
surface trough backdoor cold front moving southwest through the
area Sunday morning. More diurnal cumulus clouds should occur
Sunday afternoon. Any fog later tonight would be limited to the
wisconsin river valley.

Marine...

light winds are expected tonight into Sunday. Winds will shift to
the northeast Sunday morning, with a backdoor cold front surface
trough moving southwest through the area. Waves should be in the 1
to 2 foot range tonight into Sunday.

Small craft advisory conditions may occur Monday night into
Tuesday, with gusty winds and building waves, as low pressure
moves toward the area.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Spm
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Wood
Sunday night through Saturday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi69 min E 1.9 G 4.1 62°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi89 min E 2.9 G 2.9 63°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi49 min Calm G 0 62°F
45174 33 mi39 min E 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 60°F1 ft59°F
45013 36 mi62 min Calm G 1.9 60°F 57°F1009.5 hPa
FSTI2 43 mi129 min ESE 2.9 65°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi79 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 65°F1 ft1008.6 hPa (+0.9)57°F
OKSI2 48 mi129 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 72°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi49 min SSE 6 G 6 66°F 54°F
45177 49 mi129 min 65°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi76 minE 410.00 miFair63°F50°F63%1008.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi74 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F54°F75%1007.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi76 minNE 510.00 miFair62°F54°F75%1009.1 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi74 minENE 410.00 miFair66°F53°F63%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7E3N4NE4N4N3W5W6NW6N5N5N76S4E6CalmCalmE9E9E7E6E6E3E4
1 day agoN6CalmN6NE10NE9NE7NE8E7NE5NE7NE8NE9NE8N9NE9NE7NE15
G21
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2 days agoNE7E7E5E3E3E7E6E8E7E8E10E12E11E11E12E11E11E10NE4NE8NE12NE9NE10NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.