Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:06PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 4:36 AM CDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cdt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201810172100;;310147 FZUS53 KMKX 170806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-172100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 170838
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
335 am cdt Wed oct 17 2018

Today and tonight Forecast confidence - medium.

Area of stratocumulus clouds continue to stream southeast into
northern portions of the area early this morning. Models show this
cloud field continuing to push into a good portion of the area this
morning, before slowly mixing out late this morning and this
afternoon. Some uncertainty with how long it will take for these
clouds to mix out. Gusty northwest winds are expected today, within
a tight pressure gradient. Cool temperatures are expected as well,
with highs mainly in the middle 40s.

High pressure will pass by to the south of the area tonight. Winds
will weaken as a result, with mostly clear skies expected. Lows
should drop into the lower 30s in most areas, though this may be a
bit too warm with the radiational cooling conditions expected.

Thursday through Friday night Forecast confidence... Medium to
high.

Quiet conditions will continue through Thursday night as high
pressure drifts southeast of the region. Increasing southwest winds
on the backside of the departing high will result in slightly warmer
air spreading back into southern wi. 925h temps rise into the 6-8c
range. With sunshine and mild breezes, daytime temps should climb
into the mid to upper 50s with a few spots reaching 60 in the west.

Low level southwest winds will continue to increase Thursday night
into Friday night ahead of an amplifying northern plains short wave.

This wave and associated cold front will move through southern wi
fairly quickly Friday afternoon evening. The rapid movement of this
wave will prevent deeper atmospheric moisture from surging into
southern wi ahead of the feature. Will continue chances for
showers, but the more widespread precipitation looks to remain south
of the area. The shower threat will end in upon frontal passage as
drier air rapidly returns to the area.

Dry low levels of the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold front
on Friday will allow strong wind gusts to mix down to the surface
from mid-morning through late afternoon. Southwest wind gusts of 30
to 35 mph are expected during this period, before the front moves
through.

Extended period
Saturday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence - medium.

Increasing northwest steering winds in the wake of the passing
Friday evening cold front will carry a vigorous mid-level short wave
across southern and central wi on Saturday. Canadian ECMWF solutions
slightly slower than GFS but all medium range guidance carry this
wave across southern wi during the day. Impressive 400h potential
vorticity with this feature as mid-level lapse rates decrease to 7-8
degrees during the morning over the east. Burst of enhanced lift
with this wave has deep moisture in the favorable dendritic growth
zone. Lowered temps several degrees during the morning and went with
a rain snow shower mix for a few hours in some areas. Visibilities
may briefly drop in moderate rain snow showers. The enhanced lift
from this wave quickly moves off to the east during the aftn with
cool, northwest steering winds persisting into early the following
week. Passing high pressure ridge will result in a quiet and cool
day on Sunday. Increasing southwest winds will develop Sunday night
and Monday ahead of approaching weak low pressure trof. This trof
will pass across southern wi Monday aftn eve, but atmospheric
moisture to remain sparse. Hence no need for pops. Medium range
guidance weakens cool northwest steering winds across the great
lakes by mid-week, with more seasonal conditions returning for
several days later in the week.

Aviation(09z tafs) Area of stratocumulus clouds continue to
stream southeast into the area early this morning. Ceilings are
around 3500 feet, and should remain so into this morning. These
clouds may push into a good portion of the area into this morning.

Some uncertainty with how long it will take to mix out the ceilings
later this morning into this afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear
by tonight.

Gusty northwest winds are expected today, with gusts to around 20
knots from middle morning into the afternoon. Winds will weaken
tonight, with high pressure passing by to the south.

Marine
Nearshore waters... Small craft advisory has been extended until 00z
Thursday for the nearshore waters of lake michigan. Gusty northwest
winds up to 30 knots are expected during this period. Any elevated
waves will remain toward and over the open waters of lake michigan.

Winds should reach small craft advisory levels again Thursday night
into Saturday night, as a tight pressure gradient will linger over
the region. Winds should remain offshore in nature, so any elevated
waves will remain over the open waters of lake michigan.

Open waters... A gale watch has been issued for the north half of the
open waters of lake michigan for Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. Gusty southwest gales to 35 knots are possible during this
period. Building waves are expected during this period.

The gales may linger later Thursday night into Friday night,
spreading across the entire lake Friday into Friday night. The
pressure gradient will remain tight during this period, with gales
of 35 to 40 knots possible at times. The gale watch may need to be
extended into this period in later forecasts. These winds should
bring building waves as well.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Today and tonight aviation marine... Wood
Thursday through Tuesday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi37 min WNW 11 G 15 45°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.4)
45187 8 mi37 min 47°F 53°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi57 min WNW 9.9 G 14 46°F
45186 15 mi37 min NW 12 48°F 56°F1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi27 min WNW 8.9 G 12 44°F
45174 33 mi27 min W 16 G 21 49°F 58°F1 ft39°F
45013 36 mi60 min W 14 G 18 46°F 54°F1 ft1018.1 hPa
FSTI2 43 mi97 min W 19 46°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi47 min NW 19 G 23 52°F 58°F5 ft1017.1 hPa (+1.1)37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi37 min W 19 G 21 49°F 34°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SW5
G10
SW5
G8
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G13
SW12
G17
SW8
G19
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G23
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1 day
ago
W6
G12
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G15
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G14
W5
G13
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G13
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G12
W1
G4
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G7
2 days
ago
S1
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G10
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G11
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G12
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G10
SW3
G6
SW5
G11
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G8
--
W3
G6
W3
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G9
W3
G6
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G7
W2
G7
W2
G5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi44 minNW 1010.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1018.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi42 minWNW 610.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1018.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi44 minNW 710.00 miFair43°F32°F65%1018.8 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi62 minNW 610.00 miFair40°F32°F74%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW8SW8SW9SW13
G24
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SW17
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W20
G32
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W16
G26
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W11W8SW7W9W9W9--W6W7W8NW10
1 day agoNW9NW9
G18
NW8
G18
W8NW13
G22
NW15
G27
NW13
G22
NW12
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W11
G25
W13W15
G24
W13
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W12
G17
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W4W6W5W6W5SW6SW6SW6SW8SW9
2 days agoSW3S5SW3SW4SW5S6S8S7S4SW4SW7W8W10W8W5W4W5W5W3NW12NW9
G16
NW14
G19
NW10NW6
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.