Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:19PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:04PMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Today..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots veering south late in the morning, then veering southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then slight chance of rain early in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight backing southwest early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon backing southeast late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast early in the morning. Rain likely through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201812121700;;675083 FZUS53 KMKX 121106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-121700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 121146 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
546 am cst Wed dec 12 2018

Update
Snow band has formed and is moving northeast through parts of
south central wisconsin. It should continue to rotate northeast
and north across the area. A combination of the 4 km NAM nest and
wrf nmm seems to have the best handle on the timing of this
feature across the area this morning. It should move through the
madison area between 12z and 15z, and should expand southeastward
to clip the southeastern parts of the area including milwaukee
between 13z and 17z. Areas near the lake may see more of a mix,
with milder temperatures there.

Moderate snow should be occurring in the heavier reflectivity
areas, with 1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Up to an inch
of accumulation is possible, highest north of madison. May see
some light freezing rain drizzle as the precipitation ends during
the morning, especially over areas south and west of madison. Will
keep winter weather advisory going this morning across the area.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Some ifr ceilings will continue to develop on and off across the
terminals early this morning.

The band of moderate snow is expected to continue to rotate
northeast and northward, clipping most of the area this morning.

Areas near the lake may see more of a mix, with milder
temperatures there. Some light freezing rain drizzle is possible
for areas west and south of madison, mainly as the precipitation
ends from middle to late morning.

The best estimates for timing at madison is between 12z and 15z,
with the eastern terminals between 13z and 17z. Ifr ceilings and
visibility values are expected with the snow. Heaviest snow rates
would be 1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour, with total amounts up to an
inch, highest north of madison. A light glazing may occur as well,
mainly west and south of madison, as the precipitation winds
down.

Gusty southeast winds near the lake this morning should weaken
this afternoon, with lighter winds elsewhere. Low clouds with
ifr MVFR ceilings are expected to linger this afternoon and
tonight, lowest north of the terminals. May see light MVFR
category fog develop later tonight as well.

Prev discussion (issued 405 am cst Wed dec 12 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Potent negatively tiled 500 mb shortwave trough will move across
southern wisconsin this morning and early this afternoon, before
moving into lower michigan by this evening. Strong upward vertical
motion from this feature, along with low level frontogenesis
response rotating northward through the area and a good feed of
moisture at 850 mb, should bring a band of moderate snow through
the area.

There is some uncertainty with the timing and placement of this
band, as the hrrr and 4 km NAM nest models are slowing the
development and timing of this band until around or after 6 am in
south central wisconsin. The hrrr now has the moderate snow
staying just north of the area this morning, with the NAM nest
focusing on the northern and northeastern counties. Others are
still keeping the band rotating through most of the area this
morning. Up to an inch of snow is forecast, highest north of
madison. Areas in southeast wisconsin near the lake may see more
of a mix, given the milder temperatures there.

Could still see some light freezing rain drizzle mix in across
areas west and south of madison, as ice crystals may be lost in
this area, especially as the precipitation winds down. Only a
light glazing is expected, but this still may cause slippery
conditions on untreated surfaces.

Given the timing of this snow light freezing rain drizzle
potentially affecting the morning commute, kept the winter weather
advisory going for now. May need to trim these northward if the
snow band develops further to the north.

The snow should mix with and change to mainly rain as it moves
northeast of the area by early afternoon. Temperatures should then
drop a little this afternoon, as colder air moves into the area
in the wake of the surface low. Temperatures should rise to or
hold steady in the middle 30s this afternoon.

Winds will become light tonight, with low clouds lingering. May
see light fog develop later tonight as well. Lows should drop into
the middle 20s.

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence medium.

Mild temps will continue through this period. SRN wi will be
between a split jet stream flow with a strong SRN low pressure system
tracking from tx across the SE half of the usa. The inverted
trough extending nwd from the SRN low is weaker than prior runs
resulting in a shorter period of rain snow potential. The main
window for pcpn will be Thu nt possibly lingering into Fri am over
se wi. Locations north and west of madison could stay dry. Rain
will likely be the predominant pcpn type with some mention of snow
mainly west of milwaukee. Upper ridging and a sfc ridge will
build into the region for late fri-sat. A mild and sunny day is
expected for sat.

Long term... Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence medium.

The extended models still show uncertainty with the timing and
strength of a cold front for Sun or Sun nt. This will have an
impact on temps with possibly very mild temps expected if the
warmer solution of the ECMWF is correct. High pressure and rising
heights will then build into the region late on Mon with swly
winds and warm advection for tue.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

some ifr ceilings will continue to develop on and off across the
terminals early this morning.

A band of moderate snow is expected to develop in south central
wisconsin after 5 am this morning, and then rotate northward and
clip most of the area this morning. There is some uncertainty with
the timing and placement of this band, and areas toward the
illinois border may not see as much snow. There is some light
freezing rain drizzle possible for areas west and south of
madison, mainly as the precipitation ends from middle to late
morning.

The best estimates for timing at madison is between 11z and 16z,
with the eastern terminals between 12z and 16z. Ifr ceilings and
visibility values are expected with the snow. Heaviest snow rates
would be 1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour, with total amounts up to an
inch, highest north of madison. A light glazing may occur as well,
mainly west and south of madison, as the precipitation winds
down.

Gusty southeast winds near the lake this morning should weaken
this afternoon, with lighter winds elsewhere. Low clouds with
ifr MVFR ceilings are expected to linger this afternoon and
tonight, lowest north of the terminals. May see light MVFR
category fog develop later tonight as well.

Marine...

nearshore waters...

small craft advisory continues until 21z this afternoon for areas
south of north point lighthouse, and until 03z this evening north
of there. Gusty southeast winds are already occurring across the
nearshore waters of lake michigan. Gusts of 25 knots are expected,
with a few 30 knot gusts possible. These winds will weaken this
afternoon from south to north, as low pressure moves through
the area.

Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet into early afternoon south of
north point lighthouse, with 4 to 8 foot waves north of there. The
waves will also subside from south to north this afternoon into
this evening. Generally light winds and waves are then expected
tonight into Saturday.

Open waters...

gusty southeast winds to 30 knots are expected this morning
across the open waters of lake michigan. They should gradually
weaken this afternoon into tonight, as low pressure moves through
the central parts of the lake. Elevated waves are expected across
the western shore of the lake today, subsiding from south to north
into tonight. Generally light winds and modest waves are then
expected tonight into Saturday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz056-062-063-
067>069.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz046-047-051-
052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 3 pm cst this afternoon for lmz645-
646.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for lmz643-644.

Update... Wood
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Thursday through Tuesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi60 min SSE 20 G 22 38°F 1008.1 hPa (-4.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi20 min SSE 18 G 22 36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi20 min SSE 15 G 16 38°F
FSTI2 43 mi120 min SSE 19 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi30 min S 20 G 24 37°F 32°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi67 minSE 106.00 miFog/Mist37°F33°F86%1009 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi65 minSSE 12 G 197.00 miFair36°F30°F79%1009.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi67 minSSE 127.00 miA Few Clouds38°F33°F83%1009.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi65 minSE 47.00 miFair32°F28°F88%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W5W6NW9W6W4W3CalmE8E7E5E3E6E6E6SE6SE8SE8SE10SE9SE11SE10SE10SE10
1 day agoW6SW4W6W10W11W10SW12W13SW8SW8
G17
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2 days agoW3W3W4W7W8W7NW10NW9NW6NW7NW6NW3W3W4W5W7W6W7W6W6W6W4W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.