Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:34PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:09 PM CST (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Pm Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..East wind 10 to 20 knots veering southeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening, then veering south with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight veering southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the morning. Areas of fog through around midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Rain early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots. Gusts up to 50 knots. Chance of rain, light freezing rain and slight chance of snow in the morning. Freezing spray in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..West gales to 35 knots with gusts to around 50 knots becoming west gales to 35 knots with gusts to around 45 knots late in the evening, then easing to up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots after midnight becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the morning. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering northwest late in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray through the day. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201902240500;;408291 FZUS53 KMKX 232306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-240500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240009
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
609 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019

Update
The next round of showers is moving into the area right on
schedule. Should see periodic shower activity through the evening
and first half of the overnight. Minor flooding will remain a
concern due to poor drainage and snow melt, though no major issues
are expected.

As the surface low lifts into the area, winds will (briefly)
decrease as the pressure gradient weakens. Richer moisture will
also accompany the surface low, and with those higher dewpoints
moving over our still significant snowpack, conditions seem ripe
for widespread dense fog. A dense fog advisory will be in effect
through 4 am. Will likely see occasional areas of improvement
associated with the areas of showers, but overall it looks to be a
a very soupy night across the region.

Finally, we continue to keep a close eye on winds for tomorrow.

Latest NAM and rap guidance is showing the potential for gusts
reaching the 50 kt threshold for a high wind warning. Would like
to see a few more runs of the rap and take an initial look at the
00z NAM before making any decisions on an upgrade to the wind
advisory, but based on the data available now, that's a
possibility.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Widespread fog and rain is expected overnight across the area,
with 1 2 to 1 4 sm visibility and ceilings between 300 and 500 ft.

Winds will be from the east initially, becoming southeasterly with
time as a surface low lifts into the area. A slot of dry air may
wrap into the eastern side of the low later tonight, resulting in
brief improvements at mke and enw, but vis and ceilings will
quickly return to lifr.

As that surface low lifts north of the area, west winds will
increase very rapidly Sunday morning, with 40-50 knot gusts
throughout the day on Sunday. Very strong winds aloft will also
result in low level wind shear. The strong winds will continue
into the early evening, slowly diminishing later Sunday evening.

Prev discussion (issued 341 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019)
short term...

tonight through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is medium to
high.

Widespread showers associated with approaching vigorous short wave
will spread across southern wi late this afternoon and early
evening. Can not rule out isolated thunder with elevated CAPE of
several hundred joules this evening as strongest synoptic lift
sweeps through. Impressive synoptic lift as low pressure near
kansas city moves rapidly northeast and undergoes cyclogenesis.

Coupled upper level jet and impressive layer q-vector convergence,
reaching values of 50 to 100 units across southern wi this
evening. First period of showers and embedded thunder will
diminish towards midnight with a second batch of showers expected
after midnight into early Sunday as the upper level low pressure
trof swing through.

Several concerns to watch out overnight. Firstly, surface
temperatures remain around or just above freezing most areas. The
dewpoints have been slower to come up across the northern tier of
counties, so it is possible, a period of light freezing rain or
sleet may mix in with the showers this evening from the dells to
berlin, montello, fond du lac and sheboygan. Any mix should change
over to all rain or drizzle for a time overnight as the low levels
of the atmosphere continue to warm due to increasing ese winds.

Another concern is dense fog. Fog has been flirting with 1 4sm at
times in the kmrj keft areas and lower visibilities are spreading
east and north from there. However widespread showers expected to
affect this area late this afternoon and early evening, should
cause at least a brief reprieve from the thicker fog. However a
baggier gradient is expected for a time overnight as the surface
low moves across southern wi. This may allow a 3 to 6 hour period
of dense fog, especially as warmer, moist air continues to move
northward into more of southern wi. The dense fog threat will end
once the surface low passes to the northeast between 07z and 10z
or so and southwest to west winds begin to rapidly increase.

Third overnight concern is flooding potential. Many areas have
received between one quarter and three quarters inch of liquid
this morning. Similar amounts are expected late this afternoon and
evening. So some areas will be receiving over an inch of liquid
in a 12 to 18 hour period. The remaining snow cover has absorbed
some of the rainfall. However the potential for higher hourly
rainfall rates for a time this evening, some melting snow, and
lingering snow and ice covered drainage areas may result in
localized urban and rural street flooding. Hence an areal flood
advisory has been issued for the entire area through this evening.

Colder air quickly sweeps in late tonight and Sunday morning. With
the low pressure trof remaining in the area in the morning, some
light snow or snow showers may accompany the ramp up in winds.

Areas northwest of madison toward reedsburg and the dells may
experience an inch or two of snow. Sunday's focus in on the strong
winds expected. Impressive 3 hourly pressure rise across southern
wi in the wake of the low of 6 to 8 mb during the morning along
with potential mixing up to 900-925mb will allow wind gusts of 45
to potentially 50 knots to reach the surface on Sunday. A wind
advisory has been posted for the entire area, and it is possible a
few counties in the south may need to be upgraded to a high wind
warning if the low level winds come in a little stronger. The
strong winds will persist into Sunday evening before abating as
much colder air once again settles over the area. Wind chills by
early Monday will be in the 15 to 20 below range.

Long term...

Monday... Forecast confidence medium.

High pressure will begin spreading into the northern plains
Monday morning. We are heading into a pattern with persistent
cold northwest flow with little ripples that roll across the
midwest.

A subtle feature in the upper levels will bring a chance of light
snow to southern wi Monday afternoon. This shows up best with the
nam, but other models hint at it. There is weak forcing
associated with the right entrance region of an upper jet, 600 to
700mb warm air advection, and marginal 850mb frontogenesis. We
could see up to a half inch of fluffy snow.

Temperatures Monday night will drop back down into the single
digits below zero northwest of madison and single digits above
southeast. Temps will depend on cloud cover.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence medium.

We will see a very similar scenario as Monday again on Tuesday
with warm air advection aloft and subtle lift from another jet
streak embedded within swift northwest flow. Another dusting is
possible.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, we are looking at a little
stronger system. This one will have stronger 850mb frontogenesis.

The 850mb baroclinic zone will remain stationary across northern
il and southern wi during this period. A mid level shortwave
rolling across it on Wednesday will enhance the lift to give us 1
to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

Yet another weak feature will bring us a small chance for snow on
Thursday. There is still uncertainty about timing, location and
amounts, but this one looks light, similar to Monday and Tuesday.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is low to medium.

We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop
over the midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure
system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream
mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that
is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track
looks a little farther southeast which would put southern wi in
more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we
can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF and
gfs both have it. The canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us
dry.

Marine...

confidence in reaching storm force winds on Sunday grew due to
consistent model runs with winds to that level. We upgraded to a
storm warning for the whole lake michigan for Sunday morning.

While gales initially develop late tonight, they will quickly
amplify to storm force, so opted not to ramp up the headlines and
instead went straight to a storm warning. The south half of the
lake will reach storm force a couple hours earlier than the north
half, but opted to keep start and end times the same for now since
the ramp- up is quick and spreads from south to north Sunday
morning. Storm force winds should end by late Sunday evening, but
there is a chance this would need to be extended.

We will need a gale warning once the storm force winds end later
Sunday night. Winds will diminish below gales Monday morning as
high pressure spreads into the region.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Dense fog advisory until 4 am cst Sunday for wiz046-047-051-052-
056>060-062>072.

Wind advisory from 6 am Sunday to midnight cst Sunday night for
wiz046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... Storm warning from 6 am to 9 pm cst Sunday for lmz080-261-362-
364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.

Gale warning from 6 am Sunday to 3 am cst Monday for lmz643>646.

Update... Boxell
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday night through Saturday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi69 min E 8.9 G 9.9 35°F 1005.4 hPa (-3.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi29 min ENE 11 G 11 34°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi29 min ENE 1.9 G 6 33°F
FSTI2 43 mi129 min SE 17 37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi49 min ESE 12 G 13 37°F 37°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi76 minE 60.25 miFog35°F35°F100%1005.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi74 minENE 60.25 miFog34°F33°F97%1005.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi76 minE 60.50 miFog35°F34°F96%1006.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi74 minE 81.25 miUnknown Precip32°F32°F100%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E9E8E10E11E10E10E11E10E11E10E12E10N5NE9NE14E15E16
G23
SE12SE7SE9--E6E11
1 day agoNW6CalmCalmCalmW3W4W4NW5NW3N3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmE3SE5E5E6E7E7E7E6NE7
2 days agoW14
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W16W19
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W14W13W11SW10W12W16W13W14
G20
--W12W9W11W11W8W7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.