Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:43PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:25 PM CDT (03:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 929 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning, then chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind around 15 knots. Gusts around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201708221015;;753152 FZUS53 KMKX 220229 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 929 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643>646-221015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 220242
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
942 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Update The approaching showers and storms have been reduced to
a band of lgt rain over south central wi. New development is
possible throughout the night but overall expect coverage to be
scattered. The development will be possible into Tue am when the
cold front arrives and the upper trough moves across lake superior
with height falls extending swd into SRN wi.

Marine A cold front will result in breezy nwly winds for tue.

Wind gusts will be around 20 kts and a small craft advisory may be
needed.

Prev discussion (issued 640 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017)
update... Expect the strongest convection to pass south of wi for
the evening hours but will nonetheless have showers and sct
tstorms move from west to east across the region this evening.

Warm, moist advection will increase ahead of the approaching
storms on a swly LLJ through the evening hours. The rain will
linger into the overnight hours before ending. Cold and dry air
advection and subsidence will then clear the skies during the
morning daylight hours.

Aviation(00z tafs)... Other than greatly reduced CIGS and vsbys
within storms, MVFR CIGS will develop during the early morning
hours on tue. Dry air on breezy nwly winds will then clear the
skies during the morning daylight hours. A few fair wx cumulus may
occur Tue aft.

Prev discussion... (issued 236 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017)
short term...

tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

a mid-level trough currently over the high plains will move
through the region overnight as low pressure at the surface moves
through wisconsin. Ahead of this system, quite a bit of moisture
will be drawn into the region, with pws exceeding 1.5 inches,
reaching perhaps as high as 2 inches. Today's extensive cloud
coverage will really hamper the ability for any surface based
convection to get going. However, models are still depicting
mucape values reaching around 1000 j kg ahead of the trough.

Moreover, deep layer shear will increase to around 40 kts as the
mid level trough moves through the area.

With this combination of moisture, lift, and instability, the
stage is set of convection this evening and into tomorrow
morning. All of the synoptic scale models in good agreement in
bringing a large swath of precip through the region. Some of the
meso models are a less bullish on widespread precip overnight, and
the hrrr continues this trend, but given the previously mentioned
ingredients, will continue to likely precipitation chances
tonight. There is less confidence regarding the strength of the
storms. The instability and shear parameters mentioned earlier are
sufficient to support severe storms, but the likely elevated
nature of the storms will limit the potential for damaging winds
to reach the surface. Moreover, the seasonally high pws and low
values of CAPE above -20c will limit the large hail potential.

Therefore we cannot rule out the chances for severe storms this
evening, but locally heavy rain appears to be the greatest threat
with these storms, and even this is questionable given the latest
trends on the hrrr meso model.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high...

the upper level trough will moves out of the area in the morning,
leaving us in NW flow into the afternoon hours. NW flow at in the
lower levels will help scour out the remaining moisture, helping
skies clear in the afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

A large mid upper level trough is expected over southeast canada
and the eastern great lakes Wednesday. There is some weak cape
Wednesday afternoon, but there is a rather strong cap and very dry
air above the cap. The cool north wind should diminish Wednesday
long term...

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper trough slowly reaches the northeast u.S. Thursday
night. Strong upper level northwest flow is expected into
Thursday, before the eastern u.S. Canadian trough weakens.

A shortwave drops down from the northwest Thursday. The GFS is
strongest, with showers developing, while the ECMWF is dry.

The upper flow over wisconsin then becomes more zonal Friday. A
weak shortwave moves into the upper mississippi valley Saturday.

High pressure and cooler air remains into Friday. The high is
expected to be over the eastern great lakes Saturday, with weak
warm advection on the back side of the high.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper shortwave drops into wisconsin Sunday, but is fairly
weak. The shortwave remains through Monday on the ecmwf.

The ECMWF is a bit more aggressive on rain amounts, with the gfs
more spotty and very light.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

vfr conditions will persist through the day before CIGS begin to
gradually fall ahead of an approaching trough. Models generally in
good agreement showing thunderstorms arriving around the msn area
by mid-evening and the eastern sites a few hours later. CIGS will
continue to fall into the morning hours, perhaps dropping into
ifr if a storms moves over a TAF site. Any storms that do move
through could potentially produce very heavy rainfall. Severe
weather is a lesser threat, but we can't rule out hail and gusty
winds as well. CIGS will reach their minimum (near theVFR MVFR
threshold) right around sunrise and then begin to increase well
intoVFR late tomorrow morning.

As the trough moves through the region in the late evening early
morning hours, 2kft winds will increase to around 35kts. This will
put us right on the threshold of llws at all TAF sites.

Marine...

winds will eventually turn to the southwest and west later
tonight as a trough of low pressure moves through. West to
northwest winds will approach small craft advisory levels late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected tonight into Tuesday morning, with quiet weather
returning for the remainder of the week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
tonight Tuesday and aviation marine... Spm
Tuesday night through Monday... Hentz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi26 min SW 8.9 G 14 77°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 15 78°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi36 min SW 8.9 G 11 76°F
45174 33 mi16 min SSW 9.7 G 12 78°F 74°F1 ft70°F
45013 36 mi47 min SSW 9.7 G 12 76°F 70°F1012.5 hPa
FSTI2 43 mi86 min SW 14 78°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi36 min WSW 14 G 16 76°F 72°F1 ft1013 hPa (-1.8)
OKSI2 48 mi86 min W 1.9 81°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi36 min SSW 19 G 20 80°F 71°F
45177 49 mi146 min 76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi33 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds76°F69°F79%1012.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi31 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F69°F79%1011.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi33 minSSW 810.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1012.8 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi51 minSSW 610.00 miFair72°F71°F99%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E3E4W4E3CalmCalmS3CalmCalm6W7W9NW6NW3S4SE6S10S9S7SW11
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SW7SW7SW8
1 day agoS4S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS5S6S6SW7SW7S7SW6SW7SE7SE8S5SE4S5W3Calm
2 days agoW5NW5W4NW5W3W3NW4NW5NW3NW4CalmCalmW53SW4SW443W35CalmS4S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.