Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 6:17 AM CDT (11:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 9:25PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cdt Tue Oct 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cdt this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 9 am cdt this morning through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots late in the morning, then becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots in the afternoon. Rain until late afternoon, then chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight backing west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Chance of rain through around midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest late in the evening, then backing west after midnight becoming southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201710241600;;333114 FZUS53 KMKX 241006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 505 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-241600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240818
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
318 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017

Discussion
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high:
rain on the back side of strong low pressure will continue into
this morning. The rain will wind down northwest to southeast mid-
morning into the afternoon as drier and colder air advects into
the area. Clouds will hang on through the day today, but are then
expected to clear out quickly west to east during the evening
hours.

Highest wind gust potential today is a bit tricky given limited
mixing early due to clouds and precip, but increased mixing later
as colder air advects in. Gusts look borderline for a wind
advisory, but close enough to leave the advisory as is.

Clouds will move back in from the northwest later tonight as a
quick moving shortwave approaches. Models show a little precip
with this waves as well. It will take a little while for the low
levels to saturate before any precip has a chance to make it to
the ground. Soundings do look saturated enough by the early
morning hours for some low precip chances. Left rain snow mention
going, with temps in the lowest 1-2 kft right on the border of
rain or snow.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
potent 200-300 millibar jet streak will put southern wi right in
the vicinity of the left front quad. Impressive 500 millibar wave
rides through as well during the morning hours. Bufkit soundings
are showing the GFS drier within the column with window of low
level saturation brief if at all. Meanwhile the NAM saturates the
column for a longer period in the morning though still a close
call on precip type with wet bulb considerations. Will have both
rain and snow in the grids. QPF amounts are on the low side. Not
expecting any snow accumulation with ground still warm. This
should all exit for the afternoon hours with low level rh
lingering longer than the 700 rh so clouds may be stubborn for a
time in the afternoon.

Thursday - confidence... Medium
surface ridge shifts to the east and sets up a milder return flow
with precip associated with next low remaining to our north or
northwest. Some disagreement amongst the models on how warm 925
temps will rebound to. The GFS is the warmest with readings
pushing 11c while the NAM and ECMWF keep readings more in the
middle single digit range celsius. Will lean towards the gfs
mos superblend guidance at this time.

Thursday night through Sunday - confidence... Low to medium
another mid level trough will carve out across the upper midwest
and linger this period. The GFS is actually the slowest suggesting
the influence of the circulation could linger into Sunday while
the ECMWF is a bit more progressive. Initial precip on Thursday
night shows a MAX across northern or central wi from the GFS gem
and ECMWF while the NAM shows more across southern wi. This
initial batch looks warm enough to remain all liquid. Colder air
is proggd to wrap in for the weekend as the low heads to the
northeast so potential of a mix returns. QPF amounts not all that
impressive.

Monday - confidence... Medium
mid level ridging finally works in and there is consensus between
the GFS and ECMWF to go with the dry look of the superblend pops.

Aviation(09z tafs) Rain will persist into this morning across
the area, winding down northwest to southeast mid-morning into the
afternoon. Most places will have MVFR ceilings today, though some
ifr spots possible this morning. Also, seeing a location or two
that are slow for ceilings to lower at the moment, but expecting
these holdouts to drop to MVFR in the next couple hours. Northwest
winds are still expected to be quite gusty today.

Clouds will clear out west to east this evening. More clouds are
expected to move in from the northwest later tonight into
Wednesday morning as a quick moving wave approaches. Some light
precip is likely with this wave, with a period of snow or
rain snow mix possible. No accumulations are expected given mild
ground temps and borderline air temps for snow.

Marine Gale force northwest winds are likely today on the back
side of strong low pressure. The strong winds will slowly wind
down during the evening and early nighttime hours. Highest waves
will be toward open waters due to the offshore nature of the
winds. Left the current marine small craft advisory and gale
warning timing as is.

Winds could hit advisory levels again Thursday night into Friday
as low pressure moves through the area.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm cdt this evening
for wiz046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 9 am cdt this morning for
lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 9 am this morning to 4 am cdt Wednesday for
lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Wednesday through Monday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi77 min W 9.9 G 12 48°F 998.3 hPa (-1.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 15 mi37 min W 9.9 G 15 48°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi27 min NNW 5.1 G 7 50°F
45174 33 mi27 min W 16 G 21 49°F 56°F2 ft47°F
FSTI2 43 mi137 min WSW 12 47°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi87 min NW 14 G 14 52°F 60°F3 ft997.4 hPa (-1.3)
OKSI2 48 mi137 min W 2.9 49°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi27 min W 17 G 20 49°F 46°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW17
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G15
N10
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NW4
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G12
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S13
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G21
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S10
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G15
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G17
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G16
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G18
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G23
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G24
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S9
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SE11
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G20
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G17
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G16
S7
G10
S9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi24 minWNW 97.00 miRain48°F46°F93%998.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi22 minN 03.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F46°F100%998.1 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi24 minWNW 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F48°F97%998.4 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi47 minWNW 910.00 miRain46°F46°F100%998.3 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N6NE5NE4N4NW6NW6NW8NW6W6CalmCalmW3W3SW3W8W14
G19
W11W11W10W8W9W7W9
1 day agoS11S9S10S10S14S9SW13
G17
NW14
G21
N12
G19
N7N5N3N5CalmNW5NW3W3N5NW5NW6N6N4N4N4
2 days agoS8S10S9S10
G17
S15S13
G21
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G21
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G21
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G22
S13
G20
S13S7S10S12S12S9
G21
S11S11S12
G18
S12S10
G19
S13S9S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.