Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:32PM Sunday June 16, 2019 11:56 AM CDT (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2019
Rest of today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Chance of showers early in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201906162200;;167003 FZUS53 KMKX 161605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-162200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 161437
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
937 am cdt Sun jun 16 2019

Update
Mid-level wave moving across the area has resulted in continued
light showers and drizzle this morning. Visible satellite
presentation of the cloud cover suggests the thicker clouds and
likely drizzle extends to ia wi border. Updated pops to show a
slower end to the light rain and drizzle this morning. The cooler
northerly flow coupled with the slow to clear clouds will keep
temps well below normal as some locations may not make it out of
the upper 50s and lower 60s today.

Marine
The fog and low clouds continue across the southern portions of
the lake. Webcams and observations would indicate a slower
clearing of the fog then previously forecast so have extended the
marine dense fog advisory until 20z this afternoon. Some models
suggest a brief clearing of the fog later today then possibly
moving back in overnight and another dense fog advisory might be
needed tonight.

Winds of 10 knots or less out of the north are expected as a weak
upper level system crosses the area. Then high pressure building
in to our north with bring lighter winds to the area.

Prev discussion (issued 345 am cdt Sun jun 16 2019)
discussion...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

remnants of a mesoscale system in association with weak low
pressure will push across the region today with mostly light
showers associated. The low and mid levels will remain moist for
much of the region but will decrease into the late morning from
southwest to northeast. Some forcing in the upper levels will
continue into the late morning as well. This will keep us with
chances for precipitation through the late morning, primarily in
the northern parts of the cwa. However, expect showers to end by
the early afternoon as higher mid level moisture and upper level
forcing pushes out of the area. Clouds, however, will stick
around for much of the day with not much clearing expected.

Otherwise weak high pressure will build across the region later
today into tonight keeping the region dry.

Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will bring us a dry day here, but cloud cover is a
bit in question. The better chance for Sun will be north of
milwaukee and madison as low pressure will be passing by well
south of wisconsin. Look for highs in the 70s, but the cool
onshore flow will keep the lake shore counties cooler.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We do see some mid level short wave energy push in here on
Tuesday... Mainly passing by to the north. Moisture is rather
limited, but it could produce some showers over south central
areas in the afternoon. Overall, Tuesday is looking decent with
highs in the 70s.

Better mid level troughing and associated surface low push through
the midwest on Wednesday. The ECMWF keeps the bulk of the
showers storms south of wisconsin, while the GFS has a larger
inverted trough extending deep into wisconsin, resulting in
scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. The gem is similar to
the gfs, so will keep the mention of precip going on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We may get a dry day in on Thursday. The GFS is the odd model out,
keeping showers storms going across the area with a deeper surface
low pushing through NE indiana on Thursday. The gem and ECMWF are
weaker and more south with the surface low and therefore try to
dry it out across southern wisconsin. Will need to keep a slight
chance mention of rain going due to the uncertainty, but Thursday
is trending dry. That dry trend should continue into Friday.

The guidance really begins to diverge with respect to pattern
features and timing for next weekend. Saturday is looking wet as
low pressure pushes through, but the ECMWF lingers the threat
through Sunday while the GFS tries to dry things out.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

showers continue to make their way across the region causing some
temporary reduced vsbys in any pockets of heavier rain but
generally the main concern remains CIGS and vsbys across
southeastern wisconsin which remain below 500 ft with areas along
the lake having vsbys from 1-2 miles with periods falling as low
as a quarter mile. This will last at least into the early morning
hours as fog over the lake pushed inland. Fog will begin to
dissipate as the Sun comes up and should be gone by the late
morning hours as the system finally pulls through the region. In
other parts of southern wi CIGS remain around 1-2 kft and will
continue into the morning and afternoon with much of the region
likely to fall below 1000 ft for a period today.

Marine...

dense fog advisory remains over the southern half of the lake as
light winds and high moisture continue to play a factor in
allowing for fog to remain across the lake. Dense fog should
dissipate by the late morning as this system pushes out of the
region. Otherwise there are no other concerns as tonight through
Monday looks quiet due to high pressure building into the region.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 3 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz080-671-
673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Update... Stumpf
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Monday through Saturday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi57 min NNE 18 G 19 51°F 1011.9 hPa (+2.1)
45187 8 mi37 min N 12 G 16 51°F 53°F3 ft
45186 15 mi37 min N 12 G 16 51°F 51°F2 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 32 mi37 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 50°F
45174 33 mi27 min N 14 G 19 4 ft1016 hPa
45013 36 mi57 min NNE 14 G 18 49°F 51°F2 ft1012.4 hPa
FSTI2 43 mi117 min NNW 8.9 54°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi37 min NNE 9.7 G 12 46°F 44°F1012.1 hPa45°F
OKSI2 48 mi117 min NE 5.1 G 7 58°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi37 min NNW 17 G 19 53°F 53°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi64 minNNE 82.00 miFog/Mist55°F54°F96%1012 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi62 minNNE 60.75 miFog/Mist53°F51°F93%1011.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi64 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1012.6 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi62 minENE 67.00 miOvercast52°F52°F100%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SW8SW6W3N9N6NE9NE6NE7N5N5NE6NE5NE6NE3N5N3NE4NE10N7N8NE10NE10NE8
1 day agoSW16
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G36
SW14
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SW8SW11
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SW7SW12SW11
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2 days agoN14
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NW9W6W6W6W6W6W7W6SW4SW5SW6SW4SW8SW9SW10SW9SW9
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.