Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:08 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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LEZ168 Expires:202404192015;;015286 Fzus61 Kcle 191329 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 929 am edt Fri apr 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A cold front continues to move east through the central and eastern basins of lake erie this morning. A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will build into the ohio valley tonight, then be pushed south on Saturday as a reinforcing cold front moves southeast across the lake. High pressure of 30.00 inches will build east through the ohio valley Sunday through Monday. Low pressure of 29.70 inches will pass north of lake erie on Tuesday.
lez061-168-169-192015- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 929 am edt Fri apr 19 2024
Rest of today - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers late this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.

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FXUS61 KCLE 191737 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 137 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits to the east today. A secondary cold front moves through early Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon through Monday, with low pressure moving out of the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1230 PM...Just some lingering light rain/drizzle remains across NE OH/NW PA early this afternoon as the back edge of the cloud deck is rapidly approaching the I-71 corridor. Unfortunately, mid-level cloud cover is approaching from the southwest so any full sunshine should be short-lived.

Previous Discussion...Batch of dissipating convection ahead of a cold front still bringing some rain showers to eastern OH and western PA as we come up on 7 AM. Removed thunder from the forecast this morning as this activity has finally out-ran the little bubble of elevated instability fueling it through the day. Cold front cross Northwest OH as we approach 7 AM and will continue east through about noon. May see some sprinkles/brief showers develop along the front itself this morning, especially farther east, though not expecting any additional thunder or much QPF. Good dry punch behind the front so any rain chances will be swept out with the cold front. Mainly cloudy this morning, including a period of lower stratus along and just behind the front, though we should see sunshine return from northwest to southeast later this morning through this afternoon as that drier air works in.

Generally quiet conditions are expected tonight and Saturday. A weak shortwave will zip through the upper Ohio Valley tonight and will likely bring a mid-level cloud deck to our southern/ southeastern counties. The low-levels are expected to be too dry for any precip. A secondary cold front pushes through Saturday morning as a rather potent shortwave over the Great Lakes glances the region. Do have a brief slight chance for showers mentioned in Northwest PA Saturday morning-midday for this feature, though in general the low-level airmass looks fairly dry. Otherwise, as temperatures aloft cool diurnal cumulus will likely spread back in Saturday afternoon. Not impossible we get a sprinkle or brief shower somewhere out of the cumulus as some models depict, though the airmass is dry and most models don't have measurable QPF so kept POPs out for now.

Temperatures will hold steady or fall a bit this morning behind the cold front and then rebound into the mid 50s to near 60 behind the front. Places like Akron/Canton, Youngstown and Erie/ Meadville may actually just see a high in the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the front. Lows tonight in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Highs on Saturday will be a bit chilly, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH are expected Saturday morning and early afternoon out of the west-northwest.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday, pushing east Monday night. The main concern during this time will be for frost as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s both nights. Saturday night may have partial cloud cover with the cumulus field dissipating while some high cloud spreads overhead.
Regardless, think there will be windows of clearing and enough time for areas of frost to develop. Sunday night does look more favorable for a widespread frost as temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 30s with mostly clear skies and light winds, especially from north Central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania.
Frost will be patchy if at all closer to Lake Erie. Daytime highs will be in the 50s on Sunday then rebound to 60 or better across the western half of the forecast area on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The active northwest flow pattern continues into next week with another trough deepening as it crosses the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. Surface low pressure will cross lower Michigan and then pass north of the eastern Great Lakes. The 00Z Canadian and ECMWF are both a little slower and farther north than the GFS on Tuesday which seems reasonable as the trough starts to deepen to the northwest. Did slow pops down slightly on Tuesday, with best chances of showers and thunderstorms focused on Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday should reach the low to mid 60s ahead of the system, then be noticeably cooler for Wednesday. There is a somewhat high amount of spread among the models with respect to the cooler 850mb temperatures behind the front on Wednesday. Trended highs down slightly and expect some of the eastern sites may not make it out of the 40s. Temperatures will likely trend at least slightly warmer for Thursday but will depend on how fast the upper trough departs to the east.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon, associated with low ceilings. Lingering IFR/MVFR will quickly improve to VFR through this afternoon and evening as the cold front exits east of the area over the next several hours.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period with perhaps some 5kft sct to bkn ceilings arriving by late Saturday morning/afternoon.

Winds are generally from the west to west-northwest behind the cold front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less tonight before increasing again out of the west to northwest late Saturday morning/afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday. Non-VFR may persist into early Wednesday.

MARINE
Low pressure will track northeast across Lake Erie this morning with west northwest winds of 15-20 knots behind the front this morning, backing to more southwesterly this afternoon. Waves in the nearshore waters east of the Islands build to 2 to 4 feet with a few 5 footers possible for a brief window. A secondary cold front will cross the lake on Saturday bringing a more persistent west northwest wind of 15-25 knots and waves building to 3 to 6 feet on the east half of the lake. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most of the day on Saturday. Beyond that, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday. Winds will decrease from west to east on Sunday but some choppiness will continue on the east half of the lake. Waves should be 1 foot or less on Monday. Another low pressure system will cross Lake Erie bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with a cold front late Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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