Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Kingsville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:23 PM EST (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots this evening. Winds becoming northwest and increasing to 35 to 40 knot gales after midnight. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then rain showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming west and diminishing to 30 knots. Rain showers likely early, then a chance of rain showers from late morning on. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168 Expires:201711190315;;611105 FZUS61 KCLE 182055 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.20 inches over northern Indiana will deepen to 29.00 inches as it moves northeast across Lake Erie to northern New York by Sunday morning. Sunday high pressure 30.30 over Texas will build northeast into the lower Ohio Valley by Monday morning. The high will move off the mid Atlantic Coast Monday night and allow a cold front to cross Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure 30.20 inches will build across the lake Wednesday and Thursday. LEZ061-165>169-190315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Kingsville, OH
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location: 42.59, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 182327
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
627 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track across the lower lakes this evening
dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. Lake effect
snow showers will develop Sunday and linger into Monday when
high pressure builds in.

Near term through Sunday
Low pressure system just SW of fdy with current ht falls near cle.

Low is forecast to track dragging arctic front across the area.

The arctic front should be SW of the forecast area toward
midnight local. There are some thunderstorms with the system but
the best dynamics and shear is south of the warm front.

Kept the flood watch up basically south of a yng to fdy line.

The area has received between 1 1 2 to 2 inches with a another
inch or so possible this evening.

Pushed back wind advisory until 7pm. Warm front just now into
central ohio so the winds have not mixed down yet. Once the
arctic front moves through the NW winds will increase to 25 to
35 mph with higher gusts.

Rain will move east of the forecast area overnight. Could see
some snow in the higher elevations of the snowbelt late tonight,
with a dusting or so possible by daybreak.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
The 850 mb temps plunge to -8c by daybreak but by then moisture
is shifting east. Best chance for lake effect snow will be late
Sunday into Sunday night when 850 temps dip to -12c and an upper
level short wave moves across the eastern lakes. Still looks to
be below advisory criteria.

The short term begins Monday with high pressure in the over the
lower ohio valley. Flow will be off lake erie and 850mb temps -7c
although shear will be increasing. Would expect we begin with snow
showers but they will be decreasing quickly as dry air and high
pressure continue to build and winds back. Elsewhere expect
increasing sunshine. The next chance for precip will come Tuesday
evening and Tuesday night as another cold front moves through the
area. Will hold precip off until after 00z Wednesday and begin with
a chance of either rain or snow with highest chance northeast. After
about 3z will change precip to all snow but will decrease pops as
colder but drier air moves in which should hamper any significant
lake effect. Highs in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday. Highs in
the 30s Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Not many changes to long term. It looks like we will be able to
sneak in a dry and quiet thanksgiving and also a dry Friday. Low
pressure will move southeast across the northern lakes Friday night
into Saturday. The usual timing and placement differences are
present in the 12z guidance. But... It looks it could precip at some
point. Will go ahead with chance pops both periods with best chances
across the northern end of the area. Precip type remains in
question Friday night but Saturday should see all rain. Given model
differences going no higher than low chance pops seems reasonable.

Thursday will be a chilly day but temps will warm back into the 40s
for the end of the period.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
The the back edge of the main area of precip is currently along
the i-71 corridor with a second area of rain over NW oh. Both
of these will continue to move east across the area this
evening. The surface cold front should be to cle and mfd in an
hour or so and east of the area by 06z. Expect CIGS behind the
front to dip to ifr for several hours with improvement beginning
in the west late tonight. Sunday will bring a combination of
MVFR andVFR cigs. Have not hit the lake effect very hard at eri
as warm air coming from the lake should prevent a changeover to
snow.

Perhaps the biggest story of the night will be winds. Expect
strong NW winds to develop overnight with gusts in the 35 to 40
knot range all locations. Speeds will gradually diminish on
Sunday.

Outlook... Non-vfr continues into Monday across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. A brief period of non-vfr possible
Tuesday night all areas.

Marine
Will continue with the gale warning as it is. Low pressure will
move northeast of the lake this evening. Winds behind the low will
increase out of the northwest to 35-40 knot gales this evening
continuing through the night and into Sunday morning. Winds will
remain out of the northwest through Sunday night before backing to
southwest by Monday. Wind speeds will remain 25 to 30 knots Sunday
afternoon through much of Sunday night. Wind speeds will remain at
or above 20 knots much of the period Monday through Tuesday before
dropping back to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday and Thursday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind advisory until 10 am est Sunday for ohz009>014-019>023-
027>033-036>038-047-089.

Flood watch until midnight est tonight for ohz017-020>023-
027>033-036>038-047.

Wind advisory until 7 am est Sunday for ohz003-006>008-017-018.

Pa... Wind advisory until 10 am est Sunday for paz001>003.

Marine... Gale warning until 9 am est Sunday for lez142>144-162>164.

Gale warning until 4 pm est Sunday for lez145>149-165>169.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb
short term... Djb tk
long term...

aviation... Kubina
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 16 mi84 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 50°F 51°F2 ft987.7 hPa (-2.4)
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 48 mi63 min S 23 53°F 986.1 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi61 min S 8 G 19 53°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA55 mi33 minS 17 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F50°F87%986.5 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.