Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 947 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy early in the evening then clearing. Thunderstorms likely and numerous showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon and evening becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708222015;;775073 FZUS63 KDTX 221347 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure near the Straits during the morning at 29.50 inches will move toward James Bay and deepen to 29.20 inches by this evening. The strong cold front associated with this system will move through northern Lake Huron by late morning and then reach western Lake Erie toward evening. Northwest gales are likely by late afternoon through tonight over the north half of Lake Huron, diminishing but remaining moderate through Wednesday. High pressure averaging 30.20 inches will then build into the region Thursday through Friday. LCZ460-222015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 222257
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
657 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Aviation
Cold front currently clearing southern TAF with much drier air
filtering in this evening, allowing skies to become mostly clear
tonight. Gusty west-northwest winds (20-25 knots) will quickly be
decreasing post sunset. Cold advection and steepening low level
lapse rates tomorrow expected to allow for a goodVFR (possible
brief MVFR in late morning) CU up in clouds spreading from north to
south, with even isolated showers popping up during the afternoon,
mainly over the thumb region.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig AOB 5000 feet tomorrow afternoon

Prev discussion
Issued at 310 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
discussion...

the surface cold front now sliding across SE mi will exit east of
the forecast area between 21 and 23z. This front has provided the
focus for a line of showers. Despite warming temps under afternoon
heating, ongoing low level dry air advection is limiting
instability, which in turn will limit chances for thunder out these
showers. Some of these showers will however be capable of producing
a quick burst of gusty winds, possibly over 40 mph.

Ongoing deepening of the surface low over ERN quebec is associated
with a deepening upper low rotating across NRN ontario. This upper
low will track into NRN quebec on Wednesday, leaving a broad region
of low level cyclonic flow across the great lakes region. Low to mid
level west-northwest flow will result in persistent cold air
advection, beginning with the passage of the cold front this evening
and persisting into the day Thursday. The degree of deep layer post
frontal drying will support a good deal of clearing tonight. The
gradient flow will suppress the degree of nocturnal cooling, holding
min temps in the 50s. There will be enough moisture to cause an
expansion of diurnally driven strato CU on Wednesday given the cool
mid level temps (850mb temps in the high single digits). Model
soundings suggest convective cloud depths may be enough to support
some brief sprinkles or a light shower. Despite the cool air aloft,
mixing depths up toward 6k feet will support daytime highs on Wed in
the 70s.

The north american water vapor loop shows a mid level short wave
impulse over NW saskatchewan. Model solutions indicate this feature
will rotate into the great lakes Wed night into Thursday, leading to
an amplification in the long wave trough across ERN canada great
lakes. There is general agreement that this wave will force a
secondary surge in cold air across the southern great lakes on
Thursday (850mb temps drop to +4 to +6 c). With some potential
northerly flow off lake huron, where the 0-1km theta E profile
suggests ample over-lake instability, some lake effect rain showers
will be possible across the thumb region. The expected cloud cover
with the added lake moisture will limit mixing depths, supporting
high temps only in the 60s. The magnitude of the cold air will also
warrant min temps down into the 40s (outside of urban detroit) both
wed night and thurs night.

High pressure will remain in control over the great lakes region
through the weekend keeping dry, pleasant conditions in place.

Temperatures will remain slightly below average through the weekend
with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. A gradual moderation in temperatures will occur through early
next week with highs approaching 80 by Monday as ridging slowly
builds into the region. A wave tracking into the western great lakes
early next week will bring the next low chance for showers to se
michigan on Monday.

Marine...

northwesterly gusts to marginal gales will continue through tonight
over the northern half of lake huron as colder air spreads across
the waters. Gusts to near-gales are forecast elsewhere and will
persist through Wednesday... Especially over the open waters.The
fetch will build the highest waves east of the international border
with maximum wave heights topping out between 12 and 14 feet in
favored areas of the american waters. The influx of colder air will
make waterspouts likely over all marine zones today through
Thursday. The gradient will diminish considerably Wednesday night
supporting moderate north or northwesterlies for the remainder of
the week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 5 am edt Wednesday for lhz361-362.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Sc jd
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi49 min 70°F 1009.9 hPa (+2.8)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi49 min NW 5.1 G 16 74°F 1010.5 hPa (+3.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi49 min 72°F 1009.5 hPa (+3.2)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi49 min NNW 8 G 12 71°F 1009.7 hPa (+3.3)55°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi1.8 hrsWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F61°F68%1008.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi56 minNW 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast74°F60°F62%1009.6 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi53 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F57°F61%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S10S8S6SW12S7S6SW8SW11SW13
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NW9NW7
1 day agoS7S6S6S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S8SE7SE7S14S10S9SE9S8
2 days agoSW3SW4SW3SW5SW6SW4W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S3S4S7S11S13S12S13S9S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.