Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday December 16, 2017 11:32 AM EST (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 4:17PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 405 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light snow likely in the morning...then a chance of light snow showers early in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201712162115;;968611 FZUS63 KDTX 160905 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Friday's clipper laid out a frontal trough averaging 29.90 inches across the central Great Lakes. This front will drift south and then stall over the southern lakes today as high pressure averaging 30.40 inches builds southeast into the region for tonight into Sunday. LCZ460-162115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161011
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
511 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Aviation
Frontal forcing aloft with warm moist air overrunning is producing
MVFR ifr snow across lower mi. The first area of heavier
showers has passed east but a second batch over grr will be
passing over right around 12z. The forcing and moisture
will maximize this morning generally 11-14z as the front reaches
the ptk to lan corridor, then washes out as it drifts south toward
the mi oh border. Questions come into play for the afternoon period
as the front drops south of the area. Bulk of the models now
advertising a pretty stout inversion setting up with a saturated
boundary layer. With the column warming aloft scouring out the ice,
we could see some drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon. Low
confidence at this time as models struggle with boundary layer
moisture, but wanted to mention it.

For dtw... Dtw remains on the southern fringe of better snow rates
which should center over ptk this morning. Light MVFR snow could
become ifr for a short period, ending around 15z. There are some
indications now for the potential for drizzle or freezing drizzle
this afternoon once the front passes to the south. Low confidence at
this point but could occur a few hours this evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 ft agl through the period.

* low for visibilities below 1 2sm or ceilings below 200ft today.

* high for ptype of snow through 16z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am est Sat dec 16 2017
discussion...

southeast michigan residing within an energetic mid level northwest
flow early this morning, sandwiched between an exiting clipper
system shearing away from northern lake huron and shortwave ridging
easing into the plains. Weak frontal boundary embedded within the
resultant contracted height gradient responding much more
dynamically than anticipated 24 hours ago, as fgen forcing reacts
favorably to a period of left exit region upper jet dynamics and
weak isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb layer. The net result
is a widespread area of light to briefly moderate snowfall impacting
a broad corridor between i-94 and the tri-cities this morning.

Latest hi-res and local probabilistic model output direct the
greatest response across western portions of the i-69 and m-59
corridors areas west of i-75 , where accumulation potential upwards
of 2 inches will be plausible through the morning. Elsewhere,
accumulation within the half to inch range certainly in play, with
some southward drift of the frontal slope back down into the arb-dtw
corridor expected as forcing starts to wane late morning early
afternoon.

Large scale ascent becomes quite limited this afternoon. However,
moisture remains plentiful up through the nearly stationary 850-925
mb frontal slope parked overhead. This suggests there remains some
potential for a more contracted region of light snow showers or
flurries to persist this afternoon and evening, as continued mid
level southwest flow sustains very weak moist isentropic ascent
across the frontal slope. Worth noting that a warming mid level
environment above the boundary will start to introduce concerns for
potential loss of ice nucleation, as column saturation may
eventually shift above the -8c isotherm. Thus, not out of the
question for a period of patchy freezing drizzle to emerge directly
below the frontal interface. Favored locations for late day activity
aligned somewhere within the m-59 to i-94 corridor, where the
boundary is projected to reside.

Fairly neutral pattern for near surface thermal advection today,
given retention of a light easterly flow and the extensive cloud
deck. A general modification of the existing air mass under building
heights off the midweek arctic plunge will still bring afternoon
highs back to near or a touch above those noted yesterday. Readings
will range from mid 20s north to near freezing close to the ohio
border.

Pesky frontal boundary lifts north tonight in response to increasing
mid level warm air advection as shortwave ridging folds into the
area. Some light snow showers flurries patchy freezing drizzle
remains a possibility as this process unfolds, focus shifting north
of m-59 overnight. Little to no accumulation anticipated. High
pressure anchored north of lake huron will retain easterly flow at
the surface, ensuring a standard nocturnal cooling response
commences as opposed to a warming surface layer. Lows bottoming out
in the mid teens to lower 20s Sunday morning.

Relatively benign conditions for the bulk of the Sunday period, the
region positioned between departing upper ridge and a deamplifying
southern stream shortwave shearing out of the southern plains.

Recent model guidance trending toward the south with this wave,
simply providing far southern lower michigan with a glancing shot
late Sunday. Weak but sustained warm air advection preceding this
system will lift enough of the thermal profile above freezing to
support mainly light rain should the northern extent of any
attendant forcing manage to clip the region late afternoon early
evening. Highs on Sunday lower to middle 30s.

A brief transition of the larger scale pattern toward lower
amplitude westerlies will provide a period of milder conditions -
relative to this recent stretch - for the early week period. The
modest recovery in upper heights combined with continued low level
southwest flow will bring highs to around or just above normal on
Monday upper 30s-lower 40s . Northern stream wave shearing across
southern canada will send a moisture starved weak cold front through
the region sometime within the Monday night or Tuesday period.

Perhaps a few light rain or snow showers depending on the timing,
but largely looking at benign stretch of weather given the lack of
meaningful forcing or cold air advection to generate a potential
lake effect contribution. High pressure dominates Wednesday, with
attention then turning to a possible stronger system to finish the
week.

Marine...

a cold frontal trough is currently draped across the central great
lakes and is slowly drifting southward this morning. Outside of some
snow showers, the front will feature a wind shift from southwesterly
to easterly this afternoon. Winds on either side of the boundary are
less than 20 knots with waves on their way down. High pressure will
slide across the northern great lakes today and tonight leading to
continued light winds through the rest of the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi45 min 25°F 1015.6 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi33 min NNE 8 G 11 25°F 1016.3 hPa (+2.4)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi141 min 24°F 1014.3 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi141 min N 6 G 8.9 23°F 1014.4 hPa19°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi37 minN 63.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F22°F94%1016.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi40 minNE 64.00 miFog/Mist26°F23°F88%1016.8 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi38 minN 310.00 miLight Snow23°F17°F80%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15SW12
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W11SW11W12W9W5W8W4W6SW6SW8SW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N5N7N7N6
1 day agoNW5W5NW4NW5NW5CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmSW3SW4SW6SW4SW5SW5SW7SW6SW8SW7SW10SW9SW11SW15
G20
2 days agoS4S5S10S8SE9S12E10E9E10NE14NE12N11N10N10N7N9NW5NW7NW8NW8NW6NW8NW9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.