Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:34 PM EDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1008 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ460 Expires:201704280815;;374079 FZUS63 KDTX 280208 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1008 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...29.30 INCHES...WILL TRACK FROM THE U.P. TO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. LCZ460-280815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 272310
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
710 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Aviation
Cooler air will continue to spread over lower michigan during the
evening and carry in MVFR stratocu that extends all the way south
into indiana and west through iowa and the midwest. There is some
sign in observations of an upward mixing trend during the late
afternoon but not nearly as optimistic as near term guidance,
especially with radar indications of sprinkles/drizzle over western
lower. The observational evidence supports carrying MVFR ceiling
through the evening with some improvement to low endVFR overnight
as the cooler air deepens over the region and then a clearing trend
late. The wind gust component of the strong westerly flow will only
diminish slowly after sunset as the pressure gradient remains
elevated and the boundary layer remains well mixed until closer to
sunrise. Backing low level flow during Friday morning will direct
any remaining low clouds into the northern great lakes and leave
behind generous coverage of higher clouds moving in ahead of the
next low pressure system, however rain is expected to hold off until
Friday evening.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 323 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
discussion...

the surface low tracked due north through lake michigan, preventing
some of the stronger winds from extending east into southeast
michigan, but peak gusts still topped out around 40 mph, with flint
hitting 43 mph and saginaw 42 mph.

Thunderstorm threat looks to be over as mid level dry slot has arrived.

The upper level circulation/500 mb low near arrowhead of minnesota
lifting north into ontario tonight, leaving a rather sharp south to
north low level temperature gradient/baroclinic zone over lower
michigan. Cold airmass, as 850 mb temps will be below zero north of
i-69, likely able to sustain low clouds overnight. A few sprinkles
also can't be totally ruled out over northern third of the CWA with
the steep low level lapse rates.

Energetic/upper level wave train tracking through the great basin
to four corners region and through the southern plains.

Warm advection begins to kick in around 12z Friday, as next wave
already coming out of the southern plains lifts northeast. 925 mb
temps in the lower teens during the afternoon projects to highs in
the mid 60s, right around normal values. Moisture advection right
through the day, but the heart of the moisture axis (pw values
around 1.75 inches) will fold over along the ohio river by Friday
evening Friday night. Still, sufficient moisture (850 mb dew pts up
around 10 c) coupled with weakening surface wave/reflection coming
out of missouri and rolling through southern lower michigan Friday
night should be sufficient to generate showers by Friday evening,
especially south of m-59. Granted, did note the 12z euro solution,
which is mainly dry over southeast michigan, as moisture gradient is
farther south. However, with local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance
being very aggressive, would lean toward much of southeast michigan
seeing some rain. Heavier rain likely by Saturday night with strong
warm front and abundant moisture lifting into the southern great
lakes as 850 mb dew pts of 12+ c arrive, as strong low pressure
system lifts into missouri.

An active weather pattern continues through next week, as several
waves low pressure develop over texas and push northward into the
ohio river valley. On Sunday, as low pressure continues moving out
of the southern plains; the associated warm frontal boundary will
lift northward across lower michigan. Expect another surge of warm
moist gulf air to raise temperatures into the upper 60's for
Sunday/Monday, with a few 70 degree readings possible in counties
nearest the ohio border. Rain and thunderstorms will also persist;
on Sunday with the warm front and again for Monday as the cold front
pushes through. A cooler air mass filters into the region behind the
cold front for early next week with highs returning to the mid 50s
to low 60s. The next system is expected to push out of texas
Wednesday afternoon and reach southern lower michigan sometime on
Thursday.

Marine...

gusty southwest winds will persist into the first part of the
evening as a cold front progresses east of the area. A small craft
advisory will remain in effect for the lake huron nearshore waters.

This front will also sweep any remaining showers and thunderstorms
east out of the area.Ginaw bay and the lake huron nearshore waters.

Winds and waves will diminish later this evening as high pressure
builds into the region. Lower southwest winds speeds are expected
Friday as this high sustains a weaker gradient.

Hydrology...

rain chances will increase from Friday night into Saturday and
Saturday night as moisture is pulled north into the region in
advance of developing low pressure over the southern and central
plains. Through Saturday night, rainfall amounts are forecast to
range from about a third of an inch over the thumb to nearly one
inch near the michigan and ohio state line. While no flooding is
expected by that time frame, additional rainfall on Sunday and
Monday may begin to lead to some flooding concerns. However, this
will be highly dependent on the track of this low as it lifts into
the upper midwest and western great lakes early next week.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf/de
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi46 min 55°F 1006.7 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi64 min WSW 17 G 28 55°F 1006.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi46 min 57°F 1005.8 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi46 min W 15 G 26 56°F 1005.8 hPa41°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi96 minWSW 17 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F42°F61%1005.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI20 mi41 minW 15 G 2310.00 miOvercast53°F39°F61%1007.4 hPa
St. Clair County International, MI24 mi58 minW 410.00 miOvercast55°F41°F59%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5S3E6E5E5SE6SE11S8--S8S11S9S14S13SW13SW11
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1 day agoE9E10CalmE4E4E5E5E3E7E9SE7SE13SE16
G20
SE12SE15SE18SE16
G23
SE15SE13SE9SE10SE10NE5E5
2 days agoE6E12E8E5E7E5NE3E4E6E7SE11SE14E10SE9SE9SE12E11SE10SE12SE9SE9SE9E9E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.