Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 5:05PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 331 Pm Edt Mon Oct 16 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Sunny becoming mostly Sunny until early evening becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201710170815;;960741 FZUS63 KDTX 161931 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, centered over the mid Mississippi River Valley will build into the Great Lakes region as it slowly tracks east across Ohio River Valley through midweek. LCZ460-170815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170756
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
356 am edt Tue oct 17 2017

Discussion
Near term through 6 pm Tuesday evening
as of 355 am edt... Quiet weather night across the region with dry
weather and clear skies. Surface high pressure is located across the
ohio river valley, with the close proximity leading to light and
variable winds across southeast michigan. Despite the boundary layer
decoupling, temps have largely remained steady through the night, as
low-level warm air advection is beginning as the flow shifts to the
southwest. Still, low temps will reach the upper 30s to mid 40s early
this morning, coldest in rural areas of monroe, lenawee, and
washtenaw counties.

Through daybreak, dry weather will continue under clear skies, with
high-level cirrus creeping in across northern areas mainly north of
i-69 as a low pressure system moves across northern ontario.

Building upper-level ridge will limit the extent of the cirrus cover
due to increasing subsidence, with coverage less than scattered.

For today, aforementioned low-level warm air advection will continue
in earnest, with warmer southwest flow prevailing. With subsidence
from high pressure nearby and a WAA regime, boundary layer heights
will be limited to about 3 kft, but tightened pressure gradient with
the high to the southeast and low pressure across northern ontario
coupled with plenty of thermal mixing will help compensate.

Southwest winds will occasionally be breezy at times at 15-25 mph,
especially in the thumb region aided by a deeper marine boundary
layer and stronger marine winds off saginaw bay. An overall
stable dry atmospheric profile (pwats around 0.50 inch) will lead to
abundant sunshine and dry conditions, with high temperatures
reaching into the mid and upper 60s. Weak 925-850 hpa theta-e ridge
builds into the region, but will have little consequence other than
possibly helping to squeeze out a few boundary layer cumulus.

Short term 6 pm Tuesday evening through Thursday
high pressure remains in control through the short term period,
anchored over the southeast conus. Dry weather continues with
abundant sunshine. Upper-level heights will gradually build through
the period along with increasing low and midlevel thicknesses.

Return flow around the surface high will keep a general southwest
flow in place, occasionally breezy at times during the daytime hours
with a relatively tight pressure gradient in place with the high to
the southeast and another deep low pressure system moving well to
the north across canada. A weak shortwave trough embedded in the
flat slightly meridional midlevel ridging will move across the
region late Wednesday into Thursday coinciding with a dry cold
frontal passage. Just a slight increase in high cloud cover will
accompany these features before sunnier skies return later in the
day Thursday. With the low-level southwest flow and increasing
thicknesses, temperatures will be above normal, with highs in the
upper 60s to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday, with lows generally in
the 40s.

Long term Friday through Monday
in the wake of the passing weak shortwave trough Thursday, high
pressure will build again across the region, this time a few
millibars higher than the high earlier in the week. Pronounced upper-
level ridging will be in place as incoming potent pacific energy
digs into the western CONUS and leads to an increasingly-enhanced
meridional flow pattern. Dry weather and sunny skies will prevail on
Friday, with highs reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s for most
areas.

Heading into the weekend, the weather will become more unsettled, as
the pacific energy digs a deep longwave trough across the central
plains, with increasing clouds for Saturday. Latest runs of the gfs
and ECMWF introduce heightened forecast uncertainty for the weekend,
largely due to the fact that the guidance often struggles handling
the evolution of pacific energy in the 5-7 day period. The latest
gfs shears out the trough and brings a cold front through the region
Sunday with a period of showers, while the ECMWF develops a closed
upper-level low over texas, with the region sandwiched in a split
flow regime. With the timeframe being late october, the potential
for cutoff systems increases as northern stream PV and the southern
stream jet become more active, so will need to monitor trends over
the coming days, but a low confidence forecast for the weekend
outlook at this time. Temperatures over the weekend will ultimately
depend on the synoptic evolution, but above normal temps at the very
least will still be in place.

Marine
Surface high pressure will build in across the ohio river valley and
southeastern us as another low pressure system to our north pass
through northern ontario. Michigan will be placed in between these
two system and it allow the gradient flow to strengthen out of the
southwest today. A long fetch of gusty winds out of the southwest at
20-30 knots will set up for much of lake huron basin and saginaw
bay. These winds should persist over the next couple of days as
gradient winds will remain elevated within this regime. Small craft
advisories are in effect for saginaw bay and the nearshore waters of
lake huron from port austin to harbor beach.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1153 pm edt Mon oct 16 2017
aviation...

vfr during the night will consist of some cirrus streamers possibly
thickening around sunrise. This will occur over an increasing
southwest wind between low pressure moving through far northern
ontario and over the ohio valley. Model soundings indicate some low
level jet development during the late night through early morning
but with marginal wind shear numbers generally less than 30 knots at
the top of the shear layer. However, southwest surface gusts around
25 knots do appear likely even as the boundary layer only deepens to
about 3000 ft during the afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi42 min 53°F 1022.9 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi72 min SW 14 G 16 55°F 61°F1023.5 hPa (-0.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi72 min SSW 5.1 G 7 48°F 1024 hPa (-0.4)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi42 min 48°F 1022.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 7 46°F 1022.3 hPa38°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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E3
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi74 minSSW 610.00 miFair44°F40°F87%1023.8 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi19 minSW 610.00 miFair46°F37°F73%1024.1 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi17 minSSW 310.00 miFair45°F39°F81%1023 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W5NW8NW8N9N5NW6W4E3SE7S6S4S3CalmSW5S6SW6SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6S6SW7
1 day agoS12S10SW17
G21
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N12NW9NW5NW7NW7NW4NW4NW4W5NW4W6
2 days agoNE5NE5E6E5E7E4SW4E3SE5E3NW4E3CalmSE6SE9SE6E9E8SE11S6S6SW3S6S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.