Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:55PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:37 PM EDT (19:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 944 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. Clear. Waves nearly calm.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201805222015;;355091 FZUS63 KDTX 221344 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 944 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 30.00 inches, will move from southern Lower Michigan this morning to Lake Erie this afternoon. High pressure, 30.10 inches, will then push into Lower Michigan from the west tonight. This high will expand across the Great Lakes region by Wednesday, strengthening to 30.20 inches. This high will gradually drift off to the Mid Atlantic Thursday into Friday. A slow moving front is then forecast to push into the region from the north on Saturday. LCZ460-222015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221739
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
139 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Aviation
Plume of deep low level moisture will remain entrenched across the
southeast mi airspace through the latter half of the day as a broad
area of low pressure slowly transits the region. This will maintain
a high coverage of low stratus. Daytime heating will slowly lift
cloud bases with time, with recent observational trends suggesting
predominant ifr level restrictions for the afternoon period. Narrow
window this afternoon under modest instability for a few showers to
emerge, mainly ptk south into the detroit corridor. Greater
thunderstorm potential will reside across northwest ohio. Drier air
will slowly infiltrate the region this evening in the wake of the
exiting low. This will bring a gradual clearing trend early tonight.

This environment may support some degree of fog development
Wednesday morning, given residual moist near surface conditions
and a light wind field.

For dtw... Low stratus remains prevalent through the early evening
period. Slow improvement in CIGS with time, but with bases holding
below 5000 ft. Greater tsra potential expected to hold along south
of the ohio border through the afternoon, precluding any defined
mention at the terminal. Clearing skies early tonight, supporting
possible vsby restrictions in fog as winds remain light Wednesday
morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

* very low in thunderstorms through late afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1133 am edt Tue may 22 2018
update...

minor adjustments to pops through the afternoon to time the possible
showers and thunderstorms. Things are lining up pretty much as
expected so far. The circulation in the base of the upper level
trough can be seen now on satellite spinning over southern lake mi
with the mid level jet MAX surging eastward just to the south.

Surface cold front now taking shape as the surface low drifts into
southern ontario. Rap continues to advertise 500-1000 j kg of mlcape
lifting north into extreme southern mi supported by most recent spc
mesoanalysis. Visible satellite shows clouds thinning in the
developing dry slot warm sector just ahead of the mid level trough.

This will add some destabilization to the low levels adding to low
level wind shear and moisture pooling. Most model soundings show a
cap around 700mb which will try to suppress convection so will have
to see how fast we can warm up with thinning clouds and southerly
warm air advection. Best chance of storms remains south of m59, with
a slight chance farther north. Do not expect storms to be severe but
could see heavy rain as pwats are around 1.25".

Prev discussion...

issued at 315 am edt Tue may 22 2018
discussion...

latest water vapor imagery shows upper level wave circulation
tracking over northern lake michigan, with corresponding mid level
jet (500 mb) of 45 knots tracking through southeast michigan around
noon. A pool of low level moisture seen coming out of northern
indiana (see NAM 850-700 mb theta-e surface dew pts) looks like it
will be sufficient to generate at least scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms as mlcapes reach and exceed 500 j kg toward
the ohio border (per local probabilistic guidance), as surface winds
flip around to light southwest and surface dew pts climb above 60
degrees south of m-59. The low levels (925 mb) look to remain fairly
saturated low clouds, but with the surface boundary straddling the
heart of the cwa, and differences in wind direction, probably looking
at highs ranging from 65 (north) to 75 (south). If instability does
ramp up a little more than expected, there is concern for locally
heavy rain as inland inverted surface trough arches back and
hovers persists this afternoon over central sections of the state, as
good push of dry air does not look to occur until toward 00z.

However, preference is toward a more muted response such as 00z hires
arw rap.

Surface ridging building in tonight could set the stage for fog
development, but there is some uncertainty whether low clouds
are going to fully dissipate in a timely fashion.

A significant warmup will occur over the end of the work week, as
pronounced 500 mb upper level ridge over the mississippi river
valley slowly advances east, with the ridge axis arriving Friday
morning in a slightly flattened weakened mode. None-the-less,
strengthening low level southwest winds will advect a lot of warmth
into lower michigan, and 850 mb temps of 16+ c will supports temps
well into the 80s on Friday, as frontal boundary looks to be
sufficiently north over the northern great lakes.

Height falls over the weekend as upper level low coming out of the
northern rockies gradually slides into the western great lakes. Bulk
of 12z euro ensembles keep CWA within the warm sector on Saturday,
supporting temps still in the 80s with good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Obviously, timing of any thunderstorm complex during
the mid day hours could easily short circuit temps.

Marine...

weak low pressure will track across southern lower michigan and lake
erie today, leading to generally light and variable winds across
lakes st clair and erie. On lake huron, light east-northeast winds
will back to the north-northwest during the afternoon and evening as
the low advances into the eastern great lakes. High pressure will
expand into the region from the west tonight into Wednesday. This
high will reside over the region through Thursday, providing
generally light and variable winds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
update... ... .Drk
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi50 min 69°F 1014.1 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi38 min E 4.1 G 7 61°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi50 min 64°F 1014.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi50 min NNE 9.9 G 11 55°F 1014.6 hPa53°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi1.7 hrsENE 65.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F100%1014.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi45 minVar 69.00 miOvercast71°F60°F68%1013.7 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi41 minNW 610.00 miOvercast66°F57°F73%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4SW3CalmCalmE7NE5E7E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W34E5NE4NE6NE5
1 day agoN7N9N4NE6E8NE8NE3NE5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN5NE9NE5NE6NE6E5E5E55CalmS6
2 days agoS9S8SW12W4SW5NW7W8NW6W5NW8NW5NW6NE11NE6NW4CalmE3N7N8N6N7NW5N9N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.