Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 2:37 PM   Moonset 4:12 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening - .
Rest of today - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast early in the afternoon, then backing east late in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Waves nearly calm. Tonight - North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - West wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 180832 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain today into this evening.

- Cooler pattern through the weekend may result in frost concerns Saturday night, especially in the Wisconsin River Valley.

- Dry pattern through this weekend but a chance for rain Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today through Friday:

Clearing skies will last for a few more hours with weak high pressure prior to to a combination of 850-700mb frontogenesis and some upper level shortwave activity push in bringing rain chances (80+%) across the CWA The other factor that adds certainty to this is the moisture in the low to mid levels especially but WAA and a being on the nose of the LLJ also helps add forcing to this system. While these factors are not exactly overlapping simultaneously but the various forcing mechanisms will likely yield at least scattered showers. In the morning models are suggestive of consistent showers across the northwest/west part of the CWA with largely the frontogenesis being responsible. A few CAMs are indicating some of the morning showers that may (40%) leak further east would likely be associated with the LLJ/WAA.

Showers will start to push further east into the afternoon as the upper level shortwave activity slides east. The southeast part of the area from Janesville to Milwaukee and south may (40%) see a period of heavier rainfall in the late afternoon to early evening as this system slides out. We could (10%) even see a rumble of thunder as forcing mechanisms align a bit with convective aspects (better lapse rates) and higher PWATs (1-1.25 in) allowing for some heavier and more efficient rainfall. Rain will likely (90%) push out during the first few hours of the evening. We will start to see clearing skies overnight as higher pressure nudges in.

Friday looks largely to be quiet with higher pressure dominating the region. Clear skies may (70%) largely remain despite the upper low rotating and slowly pushing east due mostly to dry upper level air. However by the late afternoon some clouds could impinge on the CWA from the north and south though the sky would at most be scattered higher clouds. Otherwise with cooler air filling in, expect highs not get out of the upper 40s to low 50s. In addition the most impactful thing Friday will be the west to northwest winds which will gust from 30-35 mph with a gust or two to 40mph possible (30%). This will be due to decent mixing in the afternoon of winds aloft and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to the north and higher pressure strengthening and impinging from the west.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Through the weekend the upper levels will remain very active with the upper low gradually pushing out and various shortwaves continuing through the region. However due to the lack of moisture in addition to the modest high surface pressure over the region, not only is precip not expected but skies should remain mostly clear though Saturday could feature some cloud cover.

Into early next week, Monday evening through Tuesday morning, we should expect the next system to roll in. This will largely be upper level shortwave activity in combination with some LLJ/WAA influence that looks likely to bring at least some showers across southern Wisconsin. The certainty with this system has increased as the moisture and forcing mechanisms are better defined in latest models.

By mid to late next week high pressure and an upper level ridge should dominating the region with the next best chance for precip being the following weekend with the high pressure sliding out.

Kuroski

AVIATION
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Clear skies will gradually end from west to east with initially high clouds pushing in. But as rain showers slide in this morning we will see MVFR CIGS slide in with them. Rain showers mostly limited to further west during the morning with perhaps a few periods of showers further east but showers will slide east into the afternoon through the early evening. MVFR CIGS will remain fairly constant with some lowering to IFR possible (40%)
for some areas. Into the late afternoon and early evening the far southeast parts of WI could see some heavier rain showers (50%)and perhaps even a rumble of thunder (10%). Otherwise rain will mostly end by the mid evening with MVFR CIGS likely lingering a bit longer before clearing come behind this system.
Largely light and variable winds today with more breezy west to northwest winds Friday with gusts to 30 kts expected.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Another low pressure area will deepen across Ontario today into northwest Quebec for late tonight into Friday. With a strengthening high pressure in western Canada impinging southeastward the pressure gradient will sharply increase for Friday across the region leading to breezy westerly winds across the lake during this time. However, winds are not expected to be as strong as over land due to the cooler waters of the lake.
However, we have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 15z Friday to 0z Saturday for breezy west to northwest winds. Through the weekend the high pressure will weaken as it slides southeast meaning winds will trend lighter while remaining largely from the west to northwest. May need a brief Small Craft Saturday but it remains uncertain at this point.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

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