Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:24PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:00 AM CST (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:37AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Wed Dec 13 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through Thursday morning...
Early this morning..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming southwest 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then veering northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely and slight chance of light freezing rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet late in the morning, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 25 knots backing northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Snow likely through around midnight, then slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Scattered flurries. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning. Scattered flurries through around midnight, then slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201712132200;;820249 FZUS53 KMKX 130905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 305 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-132200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 130847
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
247 am cst Wed dec 13 2017

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

an upper shortwave moves across the upper mississippi valley and
across wisconsin today. Moderate upper level divergence with
moderate to strong 700 mb upward motion.

Tight baroclinic zone, with a lot happening rapidly dynamically
and thermodynamically.

Short term guidance in good agreement on carrying low level
circulation and surface low pressure from southeast minnesota
across southern wi northern il border area today. GFS nam ecmwf
showing fairly good consistency with this feature. Main problem
will be a sharp line to the band of moderate precipitation on the
south end. Models are trending a bit farther north with this. Will
therefore trim snow amounts a little, but keep headlines as is,
since a slight deviation back south is certainly possible.

One worrisome snafu is potential for losing ice crystals for a
time in the southwest CWA as drier air wraps around low pressure
circulation, hence slightly lower confidence. Did include small
chance for -zl -zr in the southwest. Low level drying remains
more limited in the eastern CWA during the day. Cross sections
show impressive lift across northeast CWA in the dendritic growth
zone close to an area of sloping frontogenetical forcing. In
addition, an inverted trof extending northwest from the low level
circulation may increase the convergence along the lakeshore areas
from milwaukee to sheboygan in the late afternoon into the early
evening. Delta-t around 14-15c in the early evening with lake
induced CAPE over 250j. Part of the low level conditionally
unstable layer reaches the snow growth region as well. With snow
liquid ratios around 15 to 1, expecting synoptic snowfall in the 3
to 6 inch range over far northeast near sheboygan. Continued
winter weather advisory for all of the northeast, with eastern
areas continuing into the evening.

Long term
Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
a series of weak shortwaves will roll through the area late week
into the weekend. This will bring flurries to a dusting of snow at
times through this period. Right now it looks like the best chance
for light accumulations is Friday night into Saturday across the
northeast half of the forecast area. Even the snowiest models
still keep accumulations generally less than an inch.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
big question marks remain with the low pressure system progged to
move through on Sunday. The previous ECMWF looked similar to the
current canadian, painting a couple inches of snow across
southern wisconsin. The latest ECMWF is weaker and farther north
with the low, bringing light snow in the northwest forecast area
and a mix of rain snow in the southeast. The GFS on the other hand
is progressive with the wave and keeps the better moisture forcing
to the south, resulting in dry weather here. Split the
differences among the solutions for now.

Models are in decent agreement for Monday, showing dry weather
between waves. Another wave Monday night and or Tuesday should
bring light snow chances back to southern wisconsin.

There are some moderate differences in temperatures among models
for early next week. Overall though, a blend of solutions results
in temps near to a couple degrees above normal for mid-december.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Model guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement tonight in
keeping the heaviest band of snow north and east of the terminals
Wednesday morning. The latest tafs reflect this, with higher
visibilities than the 00z or 03z issuances. Still think that all
sites except msn still have a good shot at seeing some snow
tomorrow, and any slight southward shift in the snow band could
result in much more impactful conditions than currently forecast.

In addition to the main band during the day, will need to watch
for lake effect later Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially
at mke.

Marine
Another small craft advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters
from mid morning Wednesday to mid morning Thursday. Initially
gusty southeast winds will become light for a brief period of time
as the surface low moves overhead, before winds increase again
from the northwest. Waves will build to 3 to 6 feet early in the
day, then build to 5 to 8 feet by Wednesday evening. Winds may
also briefly approach gales late Wednesday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz051-
052-059-060.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am this morning to 8 pm cst this
evening for wiz065-066.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am this morning to 6 pm cst this
evening for wiz046-047-057-058-064.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 9 am cst Thursday
for lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Hentz
Thursday through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi60 min S 13 G 16 23°F 1006.4 hPa (-4.8)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi80 min S 14 G 16 23°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi40 min S 13 G 14 23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi65 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F12°F54%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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NW12NW8NW8W5CalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW5S4S6S9S9S10
1 day agoS4S4S5SE9SE9SE7S5CalmCalmNW8NW8NW6NW8
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2 days agoSW9S6SW6SW5W7W9NW9NW7NW11NW11NW11NW6CalmNW11NW7N4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.