Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:37PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:29 PM CST (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Pm Cst Mon Nov 12 2018
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the morning, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201811130500;;217060 FZUS53 KMKX 130106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-130500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 122314
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
514 pm cst Mon nov 12 2018

Update
The stratus remains extensive across the upper midwest, but it is
thinning upstream. With cold air advection on going, i'll keep it
in a bit longer than the previous forecast, but it should clear
out toward morning. We should get into some decent subsidence in
the wake of a passing mid level wave just after midnight. That
should accelerate the clearing. So, other than the clouds, no
changes to the forecast. The clearing should allow our forecast
lows to be realized.

Aviation(00z tafs)
The pesky stratus will be with us through most of the evening, but
clearing should work in quickly from northwest to southeast after
midnight. The MVFR CIGS in the east should lift toVFR levels
early this evening as drier air works in. Once that happens,
expectVFR CIGS through the rest of the TAF period. We could see
some very light flurries through about mid evening, but no
accumulations are expected.

Prev discussion (issued 334 pm cst Mon nov 12 2018)
short term...

tonight and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

500 mb vorticity maximum and weak 850 mb frontogenesis response
fields should slowly shift eastward across the area into this
evening. These features may continue to bring flurries to parts of
the area during this time. No significant visibility restrictions
were seen upstream or over the area this afternoon, but could not
totally rule out a brief snow shower. No accumulations are
expected.

Otherwise, expect cold air advection to continue tonight into
early Tuesday morning. This should gradually bring drier air into
the area, and help mix out the thin low clouds over the area by
later tonight or early Tuesday morning. There is some uncertainty
here with how long it will take for the clouds to mix out, and
they may hang on more into Tuesday morning. They may linger until
axis of 500 mb shortwave trough moves east of the area Tuesday
morning.

Mostly sunny skies are then expected for the rest of Tuesday.

There may be some diurnal stratocumulus clouds that develop by the
afternoon, though it is fairly dry so not confident in this
occurring. Cold lows tonight will be in the middle to upper
teens, with middle 20s for highs on Tuesday. If clouds linger
longer than forecast, lows tonight may be somewhat milder.

Long term...

Wednesday night through Thursday night... Forecast confidence is
high:
high pressure will depart Wednesday night into Thursday as a
trough of low pressure approaches. The trough will move through
Thursday night, dragging a weak cold front through southern
wisconsin. Temperatures will be back around normal Thursday under
plenty of sunshine and southerly winds.

Friday and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
a shortwave is expected to move through Friday night into early
Saturday, bringing a chance for snow to the forecast area. The
ecmwf was the driest solution earlier today, but the 12z run is
now the wettest among models. There are differences in storm track
north to south among models as well... So still a few details to
be worked out with this one. It does look like precip could start
briefly as rain Friday evening in the south given a current blend
of models... But again, plenty of time for the details to change.

The overall snow total potential is currently on the low
end... Ranging from a dusting to around 3 inches among the
different model solutions.

Near normal temps Friday will cool to around 10 degrees below
normal Saturday behind the departing system.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is high:
strong high pressure centered to the southwest of wisconsin
Sunday will get pushed southeastward Monday ahead of another
approaching trough. It currently looks like the bulk of moisture
and lift will stay to the north as the trough moves through, so
kept it dry for Sun and mon.

Below normal temps will continue Sun and mon, though Monday will
warm back a few degrees toward normal.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)...

there may be some flurries or brief light snow showers across
parts of the area into early this evening. No visibility
restrictions or accumulations are expected.

Ceilings around 2500 feet in some areas should gradually rise to
around 3500 feet by early this evening. These ceilings should
remain into at least the evening hours, before gradually mixing
out later tonight or Tuesday morning. Some uncertainty here with
when this will occur, and it may remain cloudy into Tuesday
morning. Mostly clear skies are then expected for the rest of
Tuesday.

Northwest winds are expected into Tuesday, remaining around 10
knots. There may be some 15 knot gusts from time to time Tuesday
afternoon.

Marine...

nearshore waters... Northwest winds are expected to strengthen
tonight into Tuesday morning, as the pressure gradient tightens
across the region. Gusts to 22 knots or so may be possible during
this time.

For now, held off on a small craft advisory, as it looks to be a
borderline situation for these gusts to occur. Northwest gusts
should be around 20 knots for Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Any
higher wave action will be out over the open waters of lake
michigan.

Open waters... Northwest winds are expected into Tuesday across the
area. Should see gusts to 25 knots later tonight into Tuesday
morning, as the pressure gradient tightens over the region. Any
higher waves will be toward the eastern parts of the lake.

Southwest gales may be possible later Wednesday night into
Thursday morning over the northern half of lake michigan. Gusty
winds may return at times Friday into the weekend.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Tuesday and aviation marine... Wood
Tuesday night through Monday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi29 min NNW 15 G 17 27°F 1027.4 hPa (+0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi169 min NNW 11 G 14 29°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi39 min NW 8.9 G 11 27°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi44 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast27°F15°F64%1028.4 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi34 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast24°F13°F62%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9NW8NW5NW6NW3NW4NW8NW6N5NW6N4NW7N6NW9N10
G15
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N6N7N7NW9N9NW10N7
1 day agoS6S4S4S6S7SW7S9S10S7S6SW6S6S8SW8SW10W10SW10W10
G14
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2 days agoW16
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W11W13
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W12W10W10W10W8W5W5W4CalmCalmSW6S5SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.