Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:13PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 7:31 PM CDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 1:33PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 344 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain through the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ646 Expires:201703230415;;918906 FZUS53 KMKX 222044 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 344 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-230415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222345
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
645 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017

Evening update...

mid-level ridge axis is to our west this evening, with warm
advection clouds bringing some light returns to area radars over
minnesota and iowa. Most of this precipitation isn't reaching the
ground, owing to the very dry airmass in the lower levels. Area
forecast soundings suggest this dry layer remaining in place
around 850 mb, so feel comfortable keeping pops out of the
forecast for the evening. It's not impossible we could see a few
flurries later tonight however.

Return flow sets up late tonight towards morning as surface high
pressure slides off to our east. Our coldest temperatures should
be realized early tonight, as warm advection and increased cloud
cover allow temperatures to hold steady or even rise a bit towards
morning.

Top down saturation is expected on Thursday, with rain chances
beginning during the afternoon to early evening hours. Models
still suggest around 200-300 joules of MUCAPE available, so
isolated thunderstorms remain possible during the afternoon and
evening.

Aviation (00z tafs)
An area of mid-level clouds will move from west to east across
southern wisconsin this evening. Prevailing ceilings should remain
above MVFR levels. While we are seeing some light precipitation
falling from these clouds over minnesota and iowa, most of this is
not reaching the ground due to very dry air in the low levels.

This trend should continue, with dry conditions this evening.

Ceilings will gradually lower during the day on Thursday, with
rain shower chances increasing during the late afternoon to
evening. Showers will continue on and off into the weekend. Low-
level wind shear is possible after 00z on Friday as winds increase
around 2 kft.

Prev discussion (issued 336 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017)
tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will gradually lose its grip on the region a cyclone
slowly develops in the lee of the rockies. In the upper levels, a
large ridge will build in with a few embedded shortwaves passing
over the region on Thursday. Closer to the surface, the warm front
extending from the lee cyclone will reach well to the north of
southern wi, planting us firmly within an area of waa. Mid clouds
within the WAA currently over mn/ia will continue to push east,
reaching southern wi this evening, with the lower levels gradually
saturating through the night and into tomorrow.

Good agreement that the lowest levels will not saturate until after
at least 18z Thursday, so pulled back on the pops tomorrow. Precip
will become more likely on Thursday afternoon as the lower levels
saturate. Most guidance does show at least some instability building
in tomorrow afternoon, so included a mention of thunder.

In the near term, do have some concerns regarding the isolated
showers embedded in the upstream clouds extending from NW mn into
north central ia. The echoes from these showers are more expansive
than what the meso models are showing, and based off of CIGS within
the showers, it appears that moisture is extending lower than the
synoptic models would indicate. Fortunately, dewpoint depressions
over the area are currently around 20 degrees, and the southern end
of the showers does appear to be eroding as is pushes east.

Accordingly, will leave precip chances out of tonight's forecast,
but they may need to be added later.

Thursday night through Sunday... Confidence remains high.

For Thursday night and Friday, a surface warm front will push to
just north of our forecast area Thursday night then stall
briefly... The h8 boundary will be over far northern wisconsin on
Friday. So, the focus for the higher rainfall numbers will likely
be between these two features, or central wisconsin. This will
also allow 925mb temps to MAX out around 10-13c across far
southern wisconsin, potentially pushing surface temps into the
upper 60s. If we get any decent sunshine along the stateline, we
could even see a few 70s reported.

The front will then get suppressed south Friday night and Saturday
as building high pressure across southern canada increases the
northeast winds over the western great lakes, bringing a surge of
colder air south (with a lot of help from the cold waters of lake
michigan and superior).

As the surface front sags south into southern wisconsin, so will
the focus for on and off showers. A deep, closed and stacked low
pressure system will track from missouri Friday night, to northern
indiana by Sunday night. That slow track will keep it wet across
the area into Sunday. These closed and occluded lows are very
unpredictable with respect to resolving the smaller scaled rain
bands that will rotate around it. Especially as the system weakens
late in the weekend and becomes wrapped with dry air. At this
point it's best to only say it will be wet from time to time over
the Friday through Sunday time period. The higher chance for rain
is in the Friday night through Saturday period across southern
wisconsin.

Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A second low pressure system will be following quickly on the
heals of the first one, but passing much farther south. At this
point it looks like we could have some isolated showers around,
but nothing really organized as drier air will be working in.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure should return this period providing dry conditions
with temps hovering close to normal for late march.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

cigs on lake effect clouds are gradually rising while the spatial
extent of the clouds is quickly diminishing. Clouds should mostly
clear out in the next few hours. MVFR CIGS might hold out for
another hour in mke, but given the current trends, think either
skies will scatter or CIGS will make it above 3kft very soon.

Another round of mid clouds will move in this evening ahead an
approaching low pressure system. CIGS will stay above MVFR for
this period, but will fall once the low gets closer and rain
moves in to the west on Thursday afternoon and across the rest of
the area in the evening.

Marine...

southerly winds will pick up tomorrow as high pressure moves to the
east of the area and low pressure develops to our west. It is
probable that winds and waves will reach the low end of SCA criteria
tomorrow morning, so have hoisted a SCA beginning tomorrow
morning and lasting into tomorrow evening.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 7 pm cdt Thursday for lmz645-
646.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Thursday to 1 am cdt Friday for
lmz643-644.

Update... Spm
tonight/Thursday and aviation/marine... Bsh
Thursday night through Wednesday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi31 min ENE 7 G 8.9 28°F 1033.2 hPa (-1.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi51 min NE 7 G 9.9 28°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi41 min ENE 6 G 6 28°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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N9
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G19
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G28
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NW9
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SW2
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SE8
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N8
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi46 minESE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F17°F45%1031.8 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi36 minESE 610.00 miFair28°F19°F71%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N9E11NE6NE7NE6NE10
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NE8NE4NE5NE7NE8
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E10E5E8E10SE8E9E12
1 day agoE7E5NE3NE4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW4W3N3NW3N7N11N12
G17
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NW12N21
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--N16
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2 days agoSE13
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S9
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S15SW12SW8
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S6S4E6SE7SE7CalmE4E4SE4CalmNE6N8N12
G17
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N11
G16
N13
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E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.