Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:38PM Monday June 18, 2018 2:16 AM CDT (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:51AMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cdt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering northwest late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast early in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
LMZ646 Expires:201806180900;;711642 FZUS53 KMKX 180606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-180900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180439
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1139 pm cdt Sun jun 17 2018

Update
Widespread showers and storms currently across northern and
central wisconsin will continue to push south as they diminish and
decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. By mid
morning, storms should be quite scattered. Isolated to scattered storms
are expected into the early afternoon as instability gradually
builds back in through the day. Thanks to that instability, storms
will likely reintensify and expand in coverage by mid afternoon.

A few severe storms may be possible into the early evening hours.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Widespread showers and storms currently across northern and
central wisconsin will continue to push south as they diminish and
decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. By around
12z, showers and storms may begin to reach the TAF sites, but i
expect them to be quite scattered at that point and I don't have
particularly high confidence that they will actually impact and
taf sites.

Isolated to scattered storms are expected into the early
afternoon as instability gradually builds back in through the
day. Thanks to that instability, storms will likely reintensify
and expand in coverage by mid afternoon. A few severe storms may
be possible into the early evening hours. Storms should move out
tomorrow evening, and meso models continue to indicate MVFR to ifr
cigs behind the storms. I'm not terribly confident in that
solution, so i've chosen to only include scattered 2.5 kft clouds
int the tafs tomorrow evening.

Prev discussion (issued 914 pm cdt Sun jun 17 2018)
update...

isolated convection has developed near the eastern mn ia state
line and is pushing to the ene. Previous forecasts did not have
convective development this far south this early, and so i've
adjusted pops up somewhat in our far west. With 0-6 km shear
around 25kts, severe weather doesn't seem likely. However, mucape
values are around 2000, so I can't rule out some of these storms
pulsing up and dropping 1" hail or strong winds.

I still don't expect the widespread storms move into the cwa
until after midnight as the surface front nears southern
wisconsin. Fortunately, storm intensity should dwindle as these
storms move into the cwa, so severe weather seems especially
unlikely as the more widespread precipitation moves into the cwa.

Marine...

a cold front will sweep across southern lake michigan on Monday
afternoon, swinging winds around to the north and gusting up to 20
kts. Thunderstorms will move in from the north prior to this
frontal passage, beginning as isolated storms after midnight
tonight, becoming more widespread as the front moves into the
area.

Fog is possible due to high moisture over the relatively cool
lake through Monday afternoon.

Prev discussion... (issued 649 pm cdt Sun jun 17 2018)
update...

heat advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 pm. Otherwise going
forecast looks in good shape. Warm muggy evening with diminishing
winds after sunset. A few warm advection showers and thunderstorms
may brush NW portion of the CWA around midnight. Hrrr is more
aggressive in dropping outflow dominant MCS south into CWA after
midnight but rap is not as progressive and keeps most of the
activity north. We will keep an eye on trends this evening.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr forecast with S SW flow through the night. Outside chance for
a shower or storm at msn either side of 06z. Thunderstorms will
develop along a cold front by Monday afternoon with greatest
coverage during the late afternoon into early evening. Flow
becomes NE behind the boundary and there is the threat for lower
cigs vsbys tomorrow evening as the flow comes off lake michigan.

Prev discussion... (issued 402 pm cdt Sun jun 17 2018)
short term...

this afternoon... Forecast confidence is medium.

Two separate lines of thunderstorms developed across northern
illinois this afternoon. These are along areas of weak low level
convergence and possibly some differential heating due to high
clouds. The line that is closest to rockford may expand into
southeast wi in the next hour. These are pulse storms with rain
hitting the same area for a period of time, so expect some heavy
rain. Not expecting severe wind or hail, but a few gusts and pea
size hail are not out of the question.

Tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

The storms along a cold front over NW wi will slide southeast into
central and northeast wi overnight. Showers and a few storms are
possible from sauk to sheboygan counties late tonight into Monday
morning as the line weakens.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

The front will continue to slide south through southern wi on
Monday. This will be marked by a wind shift to the north.

Thunderstorms will likely re-develop along the front by noon,
probably around the i-94 corridor. This line will slowly drift
south through the afternoon. The slow movement and high
precipitable water content is conducive for heavy rain. Strong
instability with CAPE of around 2000 j kg and modest bulk shear of
20 to 30 kt will give us a chance for a couple severe storms
during the afternoon hours.

The stronger storms will continue south with the front during the
evening. The cold pool rain shield will keep us with showers and
thunderstorm chances through much of the night since the front is
expected to stall over northern il ia.

Temperatures will be back up around 90 in far southern wi, with
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. That's not quite high enough
for a heat advisory at this time.

Long term...

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are picking up on a possible thunderstorm complex
developing over southern mn Monday night and tracking through
southern wi Tue morning as it weakens. The 850mb baroclinic zone
will remain over southern wi through Wednesday so there is a
chance for storms until that slides south of the area. High
pressure will clear us out of thunderstorm chances for Wed nt and
thu.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Our next chance for showers and storms will arrive Thursday
night Friday morning as a closed mid level low and associated
surface low will slide from the midwest through the great lakes
through Saturday. Chances for showers and some storms will
continue through Sunday.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

a line of thunderstorms that is near rockford this afternoon may
expand northeast into southeast wi late this afternoon. Heavy rain
and pea size hail are possible.

Thunderstorms over northwest wi along a cold front will slowly
slide southeast overnight. The weakening line may reach dells and
fond du lac sheboygan areas early Monday morning. After a lull in
precip activity, stronger storms should develop along the cold
front near south of i-94 by around noon. These will gradually
slide south of the il border Mon evening. Heavy rain is expected.

Severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging wind.

Marine...

gusty southerly winds near the shoreline may reach 23 knots this
afternoon. Gusts will be lower toward the open lake.

Fog is possible due to high moisture over the relatively cool
lake through Monday afternoon.

Hydrology...

there is the potential for heavy rainfall Monday afternoon and
evening. Precipitable water values are at or over 2 inches, which
is very high compared to climatology. The cold front should move
progressively southward during this period, which may preclude
widespread heavy rainfall and training convection. However, any
storms could still produce heavy rainfall with the high moisture
content in the air. Wpc has most of the area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall for Monday afternoon evening. Will issue a
hydrologic outlook to highlight the heavy rainfall potential for
Monday afternoon and evening.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Bsh
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Cronce
Monday night through Sunday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi76 min SW 8.9 G 13 83°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi36 min SW 12 G 16 81°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi26 min SW 14 G 16 81°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi21 minSSW 810.00 miFair81°F71°F74%1013.2 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi41 minSSW 610.00 miFair71°F65°F83%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6SW4S7S5S5SW5SW7SW7S8SW8SW8
G15
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S10S8S7S7S9SW9
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1 day agoE6
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S7S10CalmS5S9
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S4S8S6SE7S7S7S7S7S10S8S8S8S7SW6S6S5S6S4
2 days agoE4E4E6SE6S5S9S84SE8SE6SE10SE10S8SE11
G15
SE11SE10
G14
S10S4SE4S5S5CalmNE12
G23
Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.