Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:52PM Friday January 18, 2019 4:52 PM CST (22:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:24PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cst Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Through early evening..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Snow. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots backing north late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Freezing spray through the day. Snow in the morning. Snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Saturday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Snow showers through around midnight. Snow showers likely after midnight. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet after midnight.
Sunday..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201901191000;;560550 FZUS53 KMKX 182105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-191000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 182125
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
325 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019

Short term
Tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Will be adding marquette, green lake and fond du lac counties to
winter weather advisory shortly. Still expecting 2 to 4 inches in
these counties, but with additional threat of blowing snow, and
potential for frontogenetical band affecting them this evening,
thought it was worthy to add these areas to headline. Otherwise,
low level frontogenetical band spreading into western CWA attm.

Combination of this frontogenesis and synoptic scale lift from
right entrance region of upper jet will bring widespread
accumulating snow to the area through tonight. Snow beginning to
develop to the south of the frontogenetical band across parts of
northern and eastern ia. Enhanced lift will be in the dendritic
growth zone for a time tonight, so favorable situation for rapid
snow buildup. No changes to previous headline changes at this
point with snowfall from 2 to 4 inches in the north to the 6 to 9
inch range in the southeast. Lake enhancement will aid snowfall in
the east overnight. Synoptic scale lift and weakening mid-level
deformation loses its grip on the eastern areas Saturday morning,
but a persistent northeast wind and delta-t around 15c will result
in snow showers lingering in the eastern areas through the
afternoon with additional accumulations. Wind gusts to 25 mph will
also create patchy blowing snow, especially closer to lake
michigan due to less frictional affects.

Long term
Saturday night through Monday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
lake effect snowfall will linger Saturday night, with additional
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches mainly from the milwaukee area
southward. Slight variations to the wind direction will impact
where exactly this snow falls and lake effect always has the
potential to have locally higher amounts.

Lake effect showers should be off shore for Sunday, with some
sunshine returning to the area under high pressure. Winds will
then become northeast to east and then eventually southeast Sunday
night into Monday, allowing some lake effect to push back inland.

Any accumulations should be on the low end since the wind
direction will be changing through most of the event, not allowing
the showers to focus on one particular area.

Below normal temperatures will prevail for Sunday and Monday, with
temperatures struggling to 15 Sunday and 20 at best on Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is medium
to high:
models are in pretty good agreement that low pressure will move by
to the south early next week and bring more accumulating snowfall
to southern wisconsin. Warm advection ahead of the system should
result in light accumulations brushing the northern forecast area.

The meat of the system is then expected to come through during the
day Tuesday. Though there is high confidence in widespread
precipitation, there are variations among forecast models with the
low track and timing. The northern solutions could result in some
rain mixing in for a period in the southeast. Not high confidence
in where the highest snow totals would be either. Overall though,
confidence is increasing that several inches of snowfall could
impact the area during this time period.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium:
near to below normal temperatures are expected for the second half
of next week, with a shortwave or two bringing snow chances at
times. There is no major system on the horizon during this period.

Though models are all showing occasional snow chances, there isn't
great agreement with timing placement strength of these systems.

Aviation(21z tafs)
Snow spreading into south central wisconsin will rapidly spread
east across southeast and east central wisconsin late this
afternoon and early evening. Visibilities quickly drop to less
than 2 miles. Snow will affect much of the area this evening,
tapering off from west to east later tonight into Saturday morning
most areas. Periods of snow showers will affect eastern areas in
the afternoon evening.

Marine
Nearshore waters... Winds will veer to the northeast and increase
this evening with gusts up to 30 knots tonight into Saturday. The
winds will back to the nne later Saturday and persist into
Saturday night. These onshore winds will cause high waves to build
and persist. The small craft advisory remains in effect into
Sunday.

Open waters... Strengthening low pressure passing to the south of
lake michigan later tonight and Saturday will result in a tight
pressure gradient across southern lake michigan, and gusty
northeast winds. At this point, frequent wind gusts are expected
to remain below 35 knots on Saturday and Saturday night, so will
hold off on a gale warning for now. Cold temperatures and wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected to cause areas of heavy
freezing spray across the northern part of the lake on Saturday
into Sunday. Hence a heavy freezing spray warning is being issued
at this time. The freezing spray will be not as widespread or
intense across the southern part of the lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm warning until 6 am cst Saturday for wiz062-063-
067>069.

Winter storm warning until midnight cst Saturday night for
wiz066-071-072.

Winter storm warning until noon cst Saturday for wiz064-065-070.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst Saturday for wiz051-052-
058>060.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Saturday for wiz046-047-
056-057.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray warning from 6 am Saturday to noon cst
Sunday for lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 pm cst Sunday
for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 10 am cst Sunday
for lmz643-644.

Tonight Saturday and aviation marine... mbk
Saturday night through Friday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi52 min NNE 18 G 21 26°F 1022.4 hPa (-0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi72 min NNE 16 G 21 26°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi67 minNE 10 G 155.00 miLight Snow25°F17°F74%1021 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi57 minENE 75.00 miLight Snow-7°F-18°F57%1022 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W5W5W5NW6NW6NW7NW7NW8NW7N6NW4NE3N5N6N8NE11N9N8NE10NE13NE12NE10
G15
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G16
1 day agoSE11E9E7E10E6E9SE8E7E6E7E6E7E4E5Calm444CalmCalmW7W8W6W3
2 days agoSW13
G18
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W8W8
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W8W7W5NW6NW4NW9N11
G15
NW6NW5N5NE5NE7NE7NE7E8NE4E54E13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.