Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday February 22, 2018 4:40 AM CST (10:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through Friday morning...
Early this morning..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East wind 15 to 20 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering west with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering north after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201802222200;;361421 FZUS53 KMKX 220906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-222200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 220830
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
230 am cst Thu feb 22 2018

Discussion
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

a receding high shifts northeast into southern canada, away from
the western great lakes on Thursday. One upper jet MAX moves off
as a second moves toward southern wisconsin. Upper level
divergence and 700 mb upward motion increases. Low levels are dry
and slower to moisten, as 700 mb layers saturate.

As a result much of today is looking dry across southern wi as
dry easterly flow persists through the day. Deeper moisture from
will be pushing northward as winds become southerly ahead of
a trough of low pressure moving into wisconsin. Some light
precipitation may reach southern wisconsin, mainly west areas
this afternoon. Precipitation will tend towards snow initially,
then become a mix with freezing rain and some sleet possibly,
especially north and west areas, this evening as an inversion
causes low levels to warm.

Expect glazing of 0.01 to 0.10 inch and may affect the Friday
morning early morning commute. A winter weather advisory has been
issued for tonight, except southeast.

Friday - confidence... Medium
low pressure will lift northeast from central wi. The bulk of the
precipitation will be across NE wi in the morning. Progs suggest
parts of the CWA will see some of this linger in our area during
the morning with the bulk of it in the northeast cwa. Should be
mostly rain though some patchy light freezing rain not out of the
question. The afternoon looks dry with only weak cold air
advection expected.

Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium to high
strong negative tilt shortwave will lift northeast through the
state Saturday night. Pronounced push of warm air with 850
southerly jet. Surface 850 low track to our northwest favoring the
warm solution for our area. Highest pops and warmest profiles will
be Saturday evening prior to 06z, when DCVA is maximized thermal
ridge axis peaks with the approaching shortwave. Later Saturday
night after the low lifts further northeast colder air will wrap
in on very gusty west southwest winds. May see wind advisory
conditions based on wind profiles on GFS soundings. We may see a
light mix for a time prior to 12z. Deeper mixing may sustain wind
advisory conditions for a time into Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday - confidence... Medium
looks like a dry period with modifying thermal profiles. A return
southerly flow will be responsible as a new low pressure system
takes shape in the central plains.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - confidence... Low to medium
likely to SE an uptick in precip chances this period though gfs
and ECMWF show differing solutions. The ECMWF sends a weak trough
towards our area with a period of light rain possible. Meanwhile
the GFS develops a stronger low and tracks it to our south and
southeast by later in this period and beyond. Looks like rain
would be a good bet initially in this scenario with some
changeover potential if this stronger low and colder track plays
out especially just beyond this period.

Aviation(09z tafs) Vfr will prevail into the afternoon hours,
before ceilings begin to lower in response to an approaching
trough. Expect to see ceilings fall into MVFR tomorrow afternoon,
and then eventually ifr late Thursday night. Light rain or
freezing rain will affect the area tonight into the early morning
Friday. The freezing line will be close for the terminals, so
aviation interests should be sure to check back throughout the day
Thursday. Winds will become northeasterly and then easterly
through the day Thursday.

Marine Northeast winds will become easterly and increase on
Thursday. Waves will increase as well, with 3-5 ft waves Thursday
afternoon building to 4-7 feet Thursday night. A small craft
advisory is in effect.

Winds will become westerly behind the trough Friday, before
becoming easterly to southeasterly once again late Saturday into
Sunday. There are indications that strong low pressure may move
through the great lakes region Sunday, with increasing winds and
waves in response.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Friday for wiz046-047-056-057-062.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Friday for wiz051-052-058-059-063-064.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 8 am cst Friday
for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am cst Friday
for lmz643-644.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Hentz
Friday through Wednesday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi40 min NE 12 G 14 31°F 1034.9 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi40 min NE 16 G 20 31°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi30 min NE 13 G 15 30°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW11
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SW12
G23
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G31
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G14
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G20
S14
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G17
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S11
G15
S4
G7
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G14
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi45 minNNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F19°F74%1034.9 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi65 minNNE 510.00 miFair25°F17°F73%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N8N8NW11N8N8NW5N5N5N5N4N5NE5NE4NE5NE3NE3NE7NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5
1 day agoCalmNW12CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W3W7W7W7W7W12W12W12NW10NW11NW11NW8N9
G14
NW11N11NW10
G14
2 days agoSE4S6E6SE5E84NE6E7E10E10E6E7E6E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.