Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:12PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:17 PM CDT (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:30PMMoonset 8:41AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Sat Mar 23 2019
.gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..South wind 10 to 15 knots backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then veering southwest early in the morning. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..South wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast early in the afternoon, then becoming northeast 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast wind up to 30 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 35 knots. Chance of rain and slight chance of snow through around midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 10 feet in the late evening and overnight. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201903232200;;802547 FZUS53 KMKX 231605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-232200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 231431
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
931 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019

Update
Forecast remains on track... No changes at this time.

Marine
Quiet conditions expected today as high pressure shifts east. A
low pressure system will move over central illinois Sunday, this
will interact with a cold front moving southward over the lakes
due to high pressure building in. This combination will likely
cause gale force winds over the southern two thirds of the lake
late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Therefore a gale watch
is in effect during this period. If guidance continues to support
gales developing, the watch will likely be upgraded to a warning.

Quiet conditions are then expected as high pressure builds in
Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Prev discussion (issued 623 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019)
update...

light ground fog is occurring at kenosha and may occur at a few
spots for the next few hours. Otherwise, no changes to the going
forecast are needed for today.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

light ground fog is occurring at kenosha, and may linger for a
few hours there and in other low areas. Otherwise, skies should
remain clear today with light winds. A southeast lake breeze
should develop by early to middle afternoon, and may reach
milwaukee and kenosha an hour or two earlier than the 20z times
in their tafs.

Clouds will move into the area tonight, with gradually lower
ceilings later tonight into Sunday morning. Light rain should push
into the southern portions of the area by early Sunday afternoon,
accompanied by ceilings down to 1000 to 1500 feet. May see lower
than 1000 feet toward the illinois border Sunday afternoon and
evening. Visibility values should remainVFR for the most part.

Light winds Sunday morning and early afternoon will shift quickly
to the north and northeast and become gusty by the middle to late
afternoon, as a cold front moves south through the area. Gusts of
25 to 30 knots are possible Sunday night, lingering into Monday
near lake michigan.

Prev discussion... (issued 345 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure moving to the
southeast of the area today into tonight. The influence of the high
will continue to bring mostly sunny skies today. Winds will be light
enough for a southeast lake breeze to develop this afternoon. Highs
should reach the lower to middle 50s inland, with modest warm air
advection developing. Highs should remain around 50 near the lake,
before cooling off by later in the afternoon.

Models are showing a decent amount of differential cyclonic
vorticity advection aloft into the area later tonight, ahead of the
main 500 mb low. There is some 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis
response that clips the southern parts of the area later tonight, as
the air column gets saturated. There is enough upward motion and
moisture here for gradually increasing pops for light rain later
tonight from the southwest. Lows should remain in the middle to
upper 30s.

Sunday through Monday night... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Deepening low pressure in northern canada will result in increasing
northwest steering winds spreading into the great lakes on Sunday.

These winds will carry a backdoor cold front rapidly southward
across wisconsin and lake michigan. The front will sweep through
most of southern wi by 00z Monday. This sudden wind shift behind
the front will result in falling temperatures into the 30s in the
afternoon in the east. In addition, short term guidance in
reasonable agreement on upstream cutoff low pressure currently in
the western high plains getting nudged east across southern ia into
il on Sunday. Latest 00z deterministic guidance has shown a slight
northward trend in the circulation. This passing system will bring
increasing column moisture into southern wi as the low level
baroclinicity increases due to the passing cold front during the
day. A period of mid-level frontogenetical forcing brushes southern
wi on Sunday as weak isentropic lift on the 295 theta surface
spreads into southern wi as condensation pressure deficits decrease.

There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the better
moisture surges into the area, so holding into likely pops for light
precipitation for now across the far south into Sunday evening. As
temperatures drop rapidly during the afternoon and early evening,
the rain may become briefly mixed with or change to a period of
sleet or light snow, especially in the east. The synoptic lift moves
rapidly off to the southeast Sunday night, so the mixed
precipitation should come to an end from north to south during the
evening. Subsidence and drier air associated with high pressure
building into the region will bring dry conditions back to the area
from later Sunday night through Monday night.

Long term...

Tuesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A weakening mid-level wave caught in the mid-level west-northwest
steering flow will pass across the region on Tuesday. However it
will be fighting against subsidence and dry air in the low levels,
so wl hold off on any pop introduction for now. Clouds from this
passing disturbance may cut into the high temperatures for Tuesday,
but it should still be warmer than Monday as a lighter south to
southeasterly flow is expected. Areas close to lake michigan however
will remain cooler.

After the large area of ridging slides off to the east, the mid-
level steering winds will become more zonal to west-southwest by mid-
week and continue to back to the southwest for the later periods.

This will usher low level warmer air into the region for Wednesday
through Friday. However gradually increasing column moisture is
also expected due to the increasing south winds. An upstream long
wave trof over the eastern pacific will weaken and retrograde
westward toward the end of the period, but not before ejecting a
weaker mid-level trof eastward somewhere into the central northern
plains in the Thursday Friday time period. This approaching system
will increasing the chance for showers across the area, beginning
Wednesday night and continuing through Friday. The most favored
period for showers will be Thursday night into Friday as the main
low pressure trof approaches and moves through the region. Both the
gem and ECMWF continue the shower chances into the weekend as
secondary low pressure forms in the central plains and moves
eastward on Saturday. Latest GFS remains more progressive and drier
for the weekend. Never the less, all medium range guidance is
showing colder conditions returning as march concludes.

Aviation(09z tafs)...VFR conditions are expected into today and
tonight across the area. Light winds early this morning will become
southwest by this afternoon. A southeast lake breeze is expected to
develop this afternoon, with milwaukee and kenosha seeing southeast
winds by middle afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected.

Clouds will gradually increase tonight, with ceilings gradually
lowering. Should see some MVFR category ceilings move into areas
southwest of madison after 09z Sunday. Some light rain may move into
southern portions of the area after 06z Sunday, though the more
persistent rainfall should hold off until after 12z Sunday in that
area.

Marine... Gusty north to northeast winds are expected behind a
strong cold front moving south across lake michigan Sunday, with
these winds lingering Sunday night into early Monday morning. Some
gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible at times, mainly over the
southern two thirds of the lake. Thus, a gale watch has been issued
for this part of the lake from later Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. High waves of 7 to 11 feet may develop over this
area as well Sunday night into Monday.

South winds may become gusty at times during the middle to later
portions of next week. A small craft advisory may be needed at times
during this period.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
lmz080-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.

Update... Rar
today tonight and aviation marine... Rar
Sunday through Friday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi18 min SSE 9.9 G 12 35°F 1026.8 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi38 min SSE 8 G 8.9 36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi28 min 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
N14
G18
N11
G17
N16
N15
N13
G19
N9
G15
N9
G14
N6
G11
N6
G10
N5
G8
N4
N3
NE4
N2
W1
W2
W1
W2
NW3
S2
N2
SE1
NE4
E7
1 day
ago
NW11
G16
N6
G13
N5
G10
N2
E2
W4
G8
W9
G16
SW4
G8
SW4
SW3
SW6
SW5
SW4
G7
SW4
G7
W4
W3
G7
W6
G10
NW6
G9
NW10
G17
NW11
G15
NW10
G16
NW13
G17
NW8
G14
N12
G18
2 days
ago
S11
G16
S9
G13
S8
G11
S5
G8
SW6
G9
SW4
SW4
SW4
S3
S3
SW7
G10
NW4
G9
W1
W3
W5
G9
NW5
G8
W4
G7
NW7
G11
NW9
G12
NW12
G20
NW13
G19
NW12
G20
NW13
G21
NW11
G17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi33 minSW 810.00 miClear48°F26°F43%1026.1 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi23 minSSW 710.00 miFair43°F26°F53%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrN12N12N12N6N3N5NE5E7E4E6SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW10SW8
1 day agoNW10NW10NW10W13
G16
W11
G16
W14
G19
W11
G19
--W9W9W7W8W7W9NW7NW8NW4W5NW5NW6N10N10
G15
N7
G16
N14
2 days agoSW7SW7SW6SW6SW7SW7W14W14NW15NW9NW4NW10NW7NW7NW8N7N10N8N9N9N10N8N7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.