Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Penn Yan, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:48PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:12 AM EST (12:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 8:56AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 605 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny this morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 50 knot storms. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers with rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 16 to 21 feet. Waves occasionally around 27 feet.
Monday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 15 to 20 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 26 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201902221615;;329246 FZUS51 KBUF 221105 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Penn Yan, NY
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location: 42.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221124
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
624 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build eastward into the region today leading
to a partly sunny day across the region. On Saturday, another
dual low pressure system will advance northward into the great
lakes and up the east coast. This low pressure system will move
through the area on Sunday with rain. A cold front then moves
through Sunday night and Monday with strong winds.

Near term through Saturday
With the sunrise update, temperatures continue to trend a bit
warmer than what model guidance has based on cloud cover. This
was factored in for the remainder of the morning. Also, some
scattered flurries are ongoing in oneida county.

High pressure will build into the region today from the west. As
a result, low and mid-level clouds due to the northwesterly flow
off the lakes in place will slowly decrease today. Temperatures
should warm into the 30's given a moderating airmass and some
sunshine.

High pressure will be in place with somewhat clear skies and
light winds tonight. One thing to watch for will be the
potential formation of patchy fog. Right now dewpoint
depressions look to stay wide enough to prevent fog overnight.

Low temperatures will fall back to around 20 given a favorable
setup for some radiational cooling.

High clouds will increase on Saturday in advance of dual low
pressure systems moving north and northeast toward the region.

Enough moisture looks to overrun a warm front to bring in some
rain later in the day. Timing looks centered more during
Saturday night but the window of rain starting in the afternoon
across NE pa is present. Some uncertainty is present on the
exact timing. Highs should warm well above freezing into the
40's. Given boundary layer temperatures, model blends look
slightly cool with highs on Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
350 am update...

major storm impacts the area in the period. Strong surface low
lifts into the western lakes with a secondary development off
the virginia coast. Western surface low is essentially bombing
developing a tight pressure gradient over the area, assisted by
a cold front that sweeps through on Sunday. Winds over the
western part of the forecast area will approach warning
criteria. So with confidence passing the 50 percent threshold
and buf already posting a warning, have issued a watch for the
finger lakes through oneida county. As confidence grows and
forecast gets refined, area may be expanded.

Other concern is the possibility of a bit of freezing rain or
sleet over the far eastern zones Saturday night. Forecast
soundings show a cold layer stubbornly hanging in until almost
day break Sunday. Have added some ice to the grids over the
catskills and parts of the extreme north. Looks like an advisory
level event at worse with only a few hundredths ice
accumulation.

Previous discussion continues below.

3pm update...

Saturday... After a quiet start to the day, a powerful storm spinning
toward the ohio valley will spread rain into our forecast area
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the lower-40s
during the day, but colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a
mix of rain and freezing rain or sleet to fall along our eastern ny
counties, mainly over the western catskills.

Sunday... The cyclone will track into northern michigan on Sunday and
pull very mild air and rain showers into ny and pa. Temperatures
will climb into the lower-50 Sunday afternoon with warmer
temperatures possible along the lake plain, before the cyclone drags
a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain showers
over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold front
will be accompanied by very gusty winds. At this time, the models
suggest potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph over a large
portion of the forecast area. Higher wind speeds are likely from the
central southern tier through the finger lakes and into the high
terrain of the western mohawk valley and western catskills. Stay
tuned for statements regarding the potential wind event.

Monday... Polar air behind the cyclone will pour into ny and pa
during this period. Scattered lake effect snow showers are
anticipated over northern sections of ny. Temperatures will reach
the lower or middle-30s on Monday, then fall into the teens Monday
night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
350 am update...

long term period features seasonably cold air and weak systems
bringing light snow and snow showers. Made only minor changes in
the long term to the temperatures and weather. Previous
discussion continues below.

300 pm update
some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible on
Tuesday, mainly in the morning in cny, then ending as high
pressure slides to the east and winds shift to a more easterly
direction. Then a weak wave may move into the area from the
midwest, which may bring a chance of light snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the track, timing, and strength of this system. Then
some lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday night in
cny. High pressure then likely builds in for Thursday, bringing
drier conditions.

Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs
generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens
and lower 20s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
A brokenVFR MVFR deck is across the region currently at all ny
taf sites. Any MVFR ceilings will slowly lift toVFR this
morning withVFR ceilings through the TAF period. Winds should
be 10 knots or less from the west and northwest then become
light and variable tonight. Although skies will clear some with
light winds, patchy fog is not expected at this time for all
taf sites overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR as high pressure builds overhead.

Saturday night through Sunday morning... Restrictions likely
with rain, perhaps briefly mixed with sleet at first. Low level
wind shear likely Saturday night from strong ssw low level jet.

Sunday afternoon through Monday... Rain showers changing back to
snow showers but also mainly impacting the ny terminals with
intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected,
especially ksyr.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for nyz009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

Synopsis... Mwg
near term... Mwg
short term... Dgm djp
long term... Bjg dgm
aviation... Mwg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi73 min W 6 G 7 30°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi61 min 28°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 64 mi61 min WNW 16 G 19 32°F 1026.8 hPa26°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY3 mi20 minW 510.00 miOvercast30°F21°F72%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW18
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SW14W13W11
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W8NW8NW7NW7NW4W5W3W3W3W5
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4CalmSE13S5S7SE10SE13SE11S14
G19
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G21
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S11
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S13S11SW11W18
G25
W14
2 days agoSW6SW5W6NW9NW9NW11W6NW7CalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE4SW4CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.