Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Penn Yan, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:47PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:24 PM EST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 305 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain and snow likely Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811130415;;205218 FZUS51 KBUF 122005 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 305 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-130415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Penn Yan, NY
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location: 42.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 130002
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
702 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A storm system will bring a mix of rain and snow, to central
new york and the northeast pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday
morning. Brisk and much colder weather will follow Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with areas of lake effect snow in central ny.

Another coastal system looks to bring a wintry mix or snow to
the area Thursday night and Friday.

Near term through Tuesday night
400 pm update... Clouds are lowering and thickening this evening
as the next weather system quickly approaches our area from the
south. Precipitation should quickly overspread the area from the
south after 9-11pm this evening. The precip may briefly start
out as rain, but should quickly go over to a period of wet snow
for most locations during the very late evening hours, as
evaporational and wet bulb cooling processes begin. The lower
valleys south of about scranton and monticello look to be mainly
all rain. Across the northern tier of pa and southern tier of ny
(east of steuben county) expect a period of snow from about 11pm
to 3 am, before the snow likely mixes with and then changes
over to rain prior to daybreak. A quick coating to 2 inches of
snow is expected in the valleys, with 1 to 3 inches possible
across the higher elevations. Further north, a winter weather
advisory is in effect for zones along and NW of a steuben--
otsego line. In this area, expect snow to overspread the area
after midnight (although some rain could mix in along the lowest
elevations, including the syracuse metro area) and continue
through the morning hours Tuesday. In the advisory areas expect
a general 1 to 3 inches of snow in the valleys, with 2 to 5
inches over the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be near
the freezing marks in most locations, ranging from about 30-35.

Total QPF tonight into Tuesday morning will range from a half to
three-quarters of an inch... With the higher amounts east.

By midday Tuesday, dry slotting aloft will rotate across
cny nepa, resulting in an end to the steadier rain snow.

Tuesday afternoon, low-level cold air advection should commence,
with winds shifting into the W and nw. As this occurs,conditions
will become more favorable for the development of lake-effect
snow bands off both lakes erie and ontario by late Tuesday
afternoon. Some of these lake-effect snow showers could begin
to affect some of our northern zones toward sunset. Midday
highs in the mid 30s-lower 40s, should begin to tumble by mid
to late afternoon down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: very cold air will advect into the
area during this time period. 850mb temperatures fall to around
-12 to -15c... Which will act to get the lake effect snow
machine going. The overall flow for much of this period is
expected to fluctuate between about 300-315 degrees, which
should target the lake effect snow belts southeast of lake
ontario. Limiting factors are very strong winds in the low
levels through at least the first half of Tuesday night, which
should at least somewhat limit the residence time over the lake.

Also, the inversion EL looks to be rather low, just under 10k
ft agl or 700 mb level. Some favorable factors for the lake
effect snow include good lift (omega) within the snow growth
zone, at least during the late Tuesday night and Wednesday
period. At this time, the most favorable time for potentially
significant lake effect snow bands to develop looks to be from
early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon hours.

During this time, an upstream connection with georgian bay or
lake huron is also possible. Model soundings also show rather
steep low level lapse rates in the boundary layer... So would not
be surprised to see some convective elements within the snow
bands. Will hold off on any winter storm watches for now, until
the details become more certain. The current forecast calls for
total snow accumulations of 3-6 inches during this time period
across onondaga, madison and northern cortland chenango
counties.

Outside of the lake effect snow bands expect partly cloudy and
cold conditions with perhaps a few snow flurries or light
showers around... Especially in central ny. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the lower to mid 20s, with highs Wednesday only in
the upper 20s to mid-30s. Windchills will be in the upper single
digits to teens for a time Tuesday night.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
Wednesday night the flow relaxes some and the core of the cold
air lifts out so the bands should weaken some, but will likely
linger into Wednesday night. Before finally lifting out before
daybreak Thursday.

Elsewhere expect scattered flurries and snow showers into
Wednesday evening, followed by slow clearing as high pressure
builds in. Temperatures will remain will below normal.

Thursday will be quiet yet cold under high pressure, but just
ahead of yet another coastal system for Friday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Complex low system pushes into the area Thursday night bringing
more precipitation to the area. Once again thermal profiles are
marginal, and positions of the major features not yet resolved.

But, it does at least look like another mixed precipitation
event for much of the area Thursday night into Friday, followed
by another cold out break and lake effect snow.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure moving along the east coast will spread a mix of
rain and snow across the terminals overnight along with
conditions lowering into the ifr alternate min category. Through
this evening conditions will remainVFR with the cloud deck
continuing to lower. At krme ksyr, mixed rain snow will begin
around 06z change to just snow shortly after with conditions
falling into the ifr category by 12z. By mid morning conditions
will improve to alternate required with light mixed rain snow
showers. At kith kelm, mixed rain snow will begin around 04z
change to just snow shortly after with conditions falling into
the ifr alternate min category around 06z. By mid late morning
precipitation will end as a mix of rain snow showers with
conditions improving to alternate required MVFR. At kbgm, ifr
conditions are expected from 05z through midday. Snow will
begin around 05z start mixing with rain around 09z, with light
rain snow showers after 15z. Conditions will improve to
alternate required by midday. At kavp, light rain will begin
around 03z with conditions falling to alternate min around 06z
with improvement to alternate required by late morning and
precipitation free.

South southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph becoming light toward
daybreak then northwest around 10 knots by late morning early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Intermittent restrictions in
snow showers, especially ksyr-krme.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Restrictions likely in rain, snow
or wintry mix.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 11 am est
Tuesday for nyz015>018-022-023-025-044>046.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 11 am est Tuesday for
nyz009-036-037.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi85 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 43°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi43 min 43°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 64 mi37 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 1024 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY3 mi32 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast40°F28°F65%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3SW3S5S5S5S6SW4SW5S5SW8SW4CalmS4S9SW8SW10S5SW7S6S3E5CalmS3
1 day agoW10
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2 days agoSW4SW7SW5SW7SW9SW8SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.