Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 8:07 PM   Moonset 5:17 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1045 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
Rest of today - North winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Tonight - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 242323 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front is moving through early this afternoon which will cause falling temperatures. Skies clear this evening, leading to a cold night with lows falling into the 20s for much of the area. High pressure will be in control with dry weather Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
615 pm update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track this evening and made only some minor tweaks to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations. Cold front has pushed through the region with high pressure building in behind. Skies will clear over the next few hours and the clear skies overnight and light winds will send temperatures into the low to mid 20s by early Thursday morning.

1230 pm update...

A cold front is moving southeast through the Catskills and NEPA now. Some rain showers are with and behind it. So far no thunder and lightning has been observed. Instability and shear is weak.
Lapse rates are good with surface temperatures around 60. Still a chance of a thunderstorm in the next 3 hours along the front.

Clear skies and dry air just north of Lake Ontario will move in late today and this evening to clear our area and push showers south. Rainfall amounts will be light and have no affect on streams and rivers.

This cool dry air is ahead of a large area of high pressure that will be centered over CNY/NEPA Thursday night. Skies will be clear late tonight into Friday. Temperatures will fall into the 20s tonight as winds become calm late. High temperatures will be below average from the upper 40s to the 50s. Thursday night will again be below freezing with lows from the mid 20s to around 30. Again winds will be light or calm.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
230 PM Update

After a cold start early Friday morning, temperatures look to rise into the upper 50s to mid-60s by afternoon. This is right on target for late April. Expect mainly sunny skies, with perhaps just a few stray clouds and light southerly winds for Friday. The area will remain firmly under the influence of a 1030mb surface high centered over New England through the day time hours. By Friday night it remains dry, with gradually increasing high clouds. Southerly winds will be 5 to 15 mph and this may help to keep overnight lows slightly milder, very close to average in the mid-30s to low 40s.

By Saturday, a warm frontal system pushed into the region in the afternoon. There remain model differences on just how much moisture and rainfall this system could produce for our forecast area. The front will be running into mid and upper level ridging, along with some pretty dry air in the mid-levels. Clouds should increase and there will be at least some scattered rain showers around during the afternoon hours; rainfall amounts should be light generally one to two tenths of an inch or less. There is no instability present on Saturday, so thunderstorms are not expected. South winds continue to increase between 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts by afternoon/evening. With the clouds and showers around, temperatures look to stay cooler/below average with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm continue Saturday night as some elevated instability works in from the west. Look for steady temperatures between 45-55 much of the night. The southerly winds begin to decrease overnight, falling back to 8 to 15 mph after midnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
230 PM Update

This period starts off with yet another warm front pushing through the area on Sunday. This front will come through as upper level heights continue to rise over the area. At this time, model guidance is limiting the surface based instability to generally the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier of NY regions. As the front lifts north there will still be a chance for scattered showers around, with a few thunderstorms also possible along/west of I-81 in NY and northern tier of PA. Winds turn southwesterly after the frontal passage and dew points rise into the mid-50s to low 60s. Afternoon highs look to reach well into the 70s areawide.

Upper level ridge and deep southwesterly flow continue over the area for Monday. Overall it looks partly sunny and mainly dry, with temperatures surging 15-20 degrees above average levels; these readings will be close to record highs for the date. There will certainly be some instability around, but it could be mostly capped by the upper level ridge overhead. With dew points in the lower 60s did leave in a mention for a chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Overall, it seems the next cold front is slowing down slightly in the latest model guidance. This could open the door for warmer temperatures on Tuesday, but also thunderstorms.
Stuck close to the NBM data for the official forecast (but limited PoPs to likely category)...with high temperatures now progged to be well into the 70s once again. Will have to watch the timing of this front closely; if it holds off until afternoon that would allow for higher levels of instability to build along with deep layer shear of 25-40 kts possible. After this it looks to cool down midweek, closer to average with partly sunny skies and a chance for a few rain showers. Winds turn west-northwest 10-20 mph.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cold front has pushed through the region and high pressure will move in behind this front tonight. This high pressure will bring clearing from north to south. A few more hours of MVFR is expected across the Southern Tier of NY and into NE PA, but VFR will return to all sites by midnight. Winds will continue to decrease overnight and winds Thursday will likely stay below 10 kts at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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