Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:42PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:36 PM EST (19:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 940 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then frequent snow showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711212215;;747944 FZUS51 KBUF 211440 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 940 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-212215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, NY
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location: 42.62, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 211726
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1226 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold front entering ny from the west will bring chilly
temperatures and a quick shot of rain and snow showers to our
area early Wednesday morning. Light lake effect snow showers
will continue through midday across northern ny.

Near term through Wednesday
1055 am update...

temperatures are rapidly warming this morning, with the latest
guidance continuing to point to maximums north of 50 degrees
this afternoon.

The grids are updated - mainly alterations to the near-term
temperatures - and should be available shortly.

245 am update...

after a sunny mild day, a cold front will move through the
region late tonight followed by lingering lake effect snow
showers and colder air on Wednesday. Precipitation amounts
however will be quite light.

The sky has cleared out, with strong southwest flow and warm air
advection just above the surface inversion. Temperatures have
been more-or-less steady or slowly rising in the 20s and 30s
overnight, with coldest readings in the most radiational cooling
prone valleys east of i-81 in central ny, such as sidney and
norwich, as well as monticello and cortland.

Full sunshine this morning to early afternoon, will only
gradually give way to increasing thin high clouds by mid-to-late
afternoon. This along with warm air advection well ahead of
approaching cold front will help temperatures reach upper 40s to
mid 50s today; or 6 to 8 degrees above climatology for highs. 50-60
knots of flow will exist just above the 850mb level, but with
warm air aloft thankfully keeping the thermal profile quite
stable, we are only figuring on surface gusts in the 20-30 mph
range. Highest elevations could hit 35 mph.

Models are in pretty good agreement on moisture-limited front
sweeping through the area late tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Upper trough will be digging into the central great
lakes, which will enhance right entrance region of a jet aloft.

This will cause forced ascent along and just behind the front
for a time, though this support will become more muddled by dawn
Wednesday. So while it is highly likely that rain will move
across finger lakes-twin tiers-mohawk valley, moisture and jet
support will both become more lacking as the front progresses
east. However, since this will be a bit of an ana-front in terms
of precipitation occurring behind the boundary, cold air
advection will start to convert rain over to a brief period of
wet snow before ending, especially at higher elevations.

All that being said, the limited moisture and weakening support
will mean precipitation amounts only coming to one-two tenths of
an inch liquid equivalent for finger lakes to mohawk valley;
perhaps not even a tenth an inch for twin tiers; and just a few
hundredths of an inch if any further south. Snow accumulations
if any will be nominal and mainly at higher elevations.

As colder air pours in Wednesday, there will be a brief window
for potential lingering lake effect snow showers Wednesday as
850 mb temperatures fall to around 10 to 12 below zero celsius
with westerly flow. However, much drier air and a quickly
lowering inversion will cut off lake effect as moist layer drops
below dendritic snow growth zone by mid-afternoon. Thus we are
only expecting snow accumulations of around an inch or so in
higher elevations of northern oneida county. Wind gusts will
peak in 25-35 mph range, which along with steady or falling
temperatures will make for a brisk day.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Upper level trough is well east of the region by Wednesday night
as high pressure builds east from the ohio valley. Both
Wednesday night and thanksgiving will be dry with highs on
the holiday ranging from the middle 30s to around 40.

Thursday night, a weak surface trough moving through eastern
canada could bring a snow shower to the far northern forecast
area but nothing of any significance. Lows will range in the
middle to upper 20s.

Long term Friday through Monday
Friday will be mild and partly sunny with a moderating
southwest flow as high pressure is over the mid atlantic and the
next surface trough drops through the western great lakes. High
on Friday will generally range in the lower to middle 40s.

Friday night through Sunday, an upper level trough will swing
through the great lakes region as a surface cold front moves
through on Saturday. Will continue with chance pops across the
area during the period with likely pops downwind of lake
ontario. Significant cold air advection begins Saturday night
with the airmass cold enough for lake effect snow late Saturday
night into Sunday night. The precipitation will fall primarily
as rain showers through the day on Saturday then change to snow
showers Saturday night. Saturday night steering flow for lake
snows are mainly westerly so will advertise likely pops in the
far north then Sunday into Sunday night the flow veers more
northwest impacting the finger lakes region and parts of the
southern tier. The snow showers will diminish on Monday as upper
level heights rise and surface high pressure builds in from the
ohio valley. Tuesday should remain dry with high pressure in
the vicinity. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals Sunday through Tuesday behind the cold front.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions and gusty winds will continue through the
daylight hours today before clouds thicken late tonight. A cold
front will usher in MVFR ceilings and a mix of rain and snow
showers early Wednesday morning.

A few snow showers will continue through midday-Wednesday in
the vicinity of syr and rme, but coverage is forecast to be too
spotty to include with this TAF package.

Most terminals should return toVFR Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

late Wednesday through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Friday night through Saturday... Possible restrictions in rain,
especially Saturday. Snow may also be mixed in early.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp mdp
short term... Rrm
long term... Rrm
aviation... Djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 46 mi36 min SW 16 G 28 57°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 46 mi48 min 58°F 1007 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 75 mi48 min S 12 G 18 53°F 1007.3 hPa21°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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W26
S10
G17
S10
G14
S9
G15
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S9
G13
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G11
S8
G12
S8
G11
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G12
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G21
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G24
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G32
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G31
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G28
1 day
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NW29
NW25
G34
W28
G37
W23
G31
NW25
G31
NW24
G33
NW23
G29
W31
G38
NW31
W28
G41
W31
G44
NW30
NW25
NW21
G27
NW18
G24
NW13
G18
NW9
G14
SE6
G10
W25
G33
SW17
G24
W19
G28
W28
G35
W27
G33
W24
G39
2 days
ago
SE9
G15
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G16
SE10
G14
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G13
SE8
G15
SE11
G16
SE14
G18
SE9
G14
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G14
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G15
S12
G18
S13
G24
S9
G18
SW14
G21
NW32
NW28
G34
W32
G39
NW31
G38
NW28
G35
NW29
NW26
G33
NW26
NW23
G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY17 mi42 minSSW 11 G 2210.00 miFair57°F19°F24%1009.4 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY19 mi43 minSSW 11 G 2010.00 mi55°F21°F28%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmSE5SE5SE7S7
G15
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G18
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G17
SE9SE10
G18
SE7SE8SE9SE8SE9SE12SE11S8S12
G19
S12S18
G23
SW11
G21
S13
G21
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G22
1 day agoW10
G16
NW7W5NW6
G14
NW9
G22
NW11
G16
NW15
G23
NW8
G15
NW7NW7NW56NW6W7N5NW9
G17
NW4NW4NW3CalmCalm65W7
G19
2 days agoSE11SE8SE9SE9SE13S14
G24
SE11
G25
S21
G32
SE5SE9SE5SE7NW16
G20
NW10
G23
NW9
G20
NW13
G21
NW10
G22
NW11
G25
NW11
G17
N10W9NW15
G21
NW9
G21
NW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.