Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:33PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:50 AM EDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:57AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Niagara River To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1039 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Periods of rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201703262115;;109986 FZUS51 KBUF 261439 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1039 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ042-043-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, NY
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location: 42.62, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 270227
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1027 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system moving through the great lakes will push
rain back into the area overnight and early on Monday with some
areas of freezing rain likely in sullivan county. Drier air
will return Monday but another period of rain is likely Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and seasonable.

Near term /through Monday/
1020 pm update... Temperatures are holding right around freezing
in sullivan county so we issued a freezing rain advisory for the
overnight period into Monday morning (2-8am). Expect lower
elevations south of monticello to be mainly rain with a period
of freezing likely over northern parts of the county before a
change to rain occurs Monday morning.

8 pm update... The area is currently in a lull with more showers
located upstream over western pa due to arrive late this
evening into the overnight. For this reason, reduced pops for
this evening as precip won't arrive in western steuben county
until near 3z. Still have a couple concerns with this overnight
precip... .The first being isolated areas of freezing rain in
sullivan county where temps continue to remain at or below
freezing. Also, there could be some minor hydro issues overnight
in areas of moderate rain.

339 pm update... Blocking high over new england has been
stubbornly persistent and unwilling to let go. This has kept
some cold air over the far eastern zones, mainly northern
sullivan and eastern delaware. As the next batch of rain moves
in, nam12 shows some lingering cold air in a narrow layer
holding on and continuing into the early morning hours before
finally being scoured out. At this time, believe icing will be
isolated enough and remote enough to be handled by an sps if
needed.

System itself is not particularly strong, in fact the models
show the low filling over time as it moves into ontario. It does
show a nice little jet streak ahead of the wave and develops a
decent period of rain between 06z and 12z with rain amounts up
to a half inch possible. This could cause some minor hydro
issues, see hydro discussion section for details.

Somewhat drier air arrives on Monday, although clouds should
persist with just weak ridging and leftover moisture.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/
3 pm update...

Monday night a break with one system pulling out and another
moving in late. Mostly cloudy skies becoming cloudy. Mild
moist air will keep lows in the 40s. Snowmelt will continue.

Unsettled weather with another period of rain. This will move in
Tuesday morning and end in the evening. Rainfall amounts should
be mostly under a quarter of an inch. This is good given the
rain of the past week, rainfall Monday, snowmelt, and high river
and streams. Localized heavy rain possible in the afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves through. Model disagreement on
where the sfc low will be on the front. Some models bullseye the
lake plain and others the poconos. Trend has been the further
south solution which would put the most rain in the southeast
and out of the north branch susquehanna ny and oneida basins.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
3 pm update...

this period is quiet Wednesday and Thursday followed by a slow
moving occluded front Friday to Saturday. Sunday a cold front
late. Temperatures normal to above normal with highs in the 40s
and 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Tuesday night rain pulling out. Enough cold air comes in late so
any lingering light rain shower could be snow. Lows low to mid
30s.

Wednesday to Thursday high pressure at the surface with a ridge
aloft. Temperatures close to normal with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s and 30s.

Friday will be watching a strong storm for rainfall amounts.

Slow moving storm will move northeast from the central plains
into the great lakes Friday. Friday night it moves over our
region and reforms on the coast Saturday. The heaviest rain will
be with and ahead of the low Friday afternoon and night. Cold
air should stay to the north keeping all of the precip rain even
with the upper level trough Saturday. Any snow left will be
melted with warm moist air ahead of this storm.

Sunday will be in transition as flow GOES zonal and another
short wave and weak front approaches late.

Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/
Low pressure will move through the central great lakes overnight
and push an area of rain across the terminals into mid morning
Monday. At kith/kelm/kavp, alternate required conditions will
lower into the alternate minimum category as rain moves in
around 05z. At kbgm, conditions are already in the alternate
minimum category and will remain there when rain begins around
06z. The rain will end around mid morning across the southern
terminals with conditions gradually improving into the MVFR/low
vfr category by late afternoon. At krme/ksyr, alternate
required conditions will lower into the ifr category around 07z
with rain onset and may improve to alternate required by early
afternoon when the rain ends.

Low level winds shear is expected across the terminals between
06z-15z as winds around 2k ft are from the south at 35-40
knots. At the surface east/southeast winds around 5-10 knots
will shift to the southwest on Monday around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday... Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday/Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday night/Friday... Restrictions likely in showers.

Hydrology
245 pm edt Sunday update... The rain on snow melt event is
underway, and will continue into the upcoming week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Future rainfall amounts are roughly the same in today's model
runs, with basin averaged QPF up to an inch through Wednesday
morning. This along with the runoff of most of the 1 to 3 inches
of liquid water content across the headwaters of the upper
susquehanna, delaware and the oneida-syracuse river basin will
lead to high flows, and probably minor flooding at several of
the forecast gauge points in the susquehanna and upper delaware
tribs.

Mmefs ensemble spreads are even more aggressive than our latest
operational hydrologic model runs, and show a potential for a
quicker melt on Monday with sharp rises to flood stage at the
headwater points, followed by secondary crests on Tuesday. In
some cases, the mean crests are to the moderate flood stage.

The confidence of a near worst case scenario outcome is quite
low at this time, but it will be important to keep these caveats
in mind as this event unfolds, and be prepared to react to
locally heavier rainfall and/or a rapid melt down of the snow
cover.

With forecast crests still over 48 hours away, there is still
time for further assessment, and no watch will be issued at this
time.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Freezing rain advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Monday for nyz062.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm/pcf
short term... Tac
long term... Tac
aviation... Rrm
hydrology... Jab


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 46 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 15 47°F 1017.3 hPa (-1.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 46 mi50 min 47°F 1016.2 hPa (-1.5)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 75 mi50 min SSE 14 G 21 38°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.5)35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY17 mi56 minSE 11 G 2110.00 miLight Rain46°F39°F77%1017.9 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY19 mi57 minS 1210.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1019 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmS5SE6SE6S10S6S11SE14SE16
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1 day agoW3NW5NW3NW4CalmCalmNW5N3NW5NW7NW7NW8NW9NW4N53NW3CalmNW6SE5E4S5S7SE5
2 days agoSE6SE9SE7SE9SE10SE9S7SE7SE8SE10SE9SE11SE65S4W6NW8NW12NW5CalmS3CalmNW16NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.