Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Douglas, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:12PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 2:11 AM EST (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 950 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots veering southwest late in the day. Cloudy. Drizzle likely and a chance of snow until midday, then a chance of drizzle and snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming around 10 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of drizzle in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ845 Expires:201812121015;;658639 FZUS53 KGRR 120250 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 950 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-121015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Douglas, MI
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location: 42.64, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 120504
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1204 am est Wed dec 12 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 315 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
- light snow likely on Wednesday with some drizzle freezing drizzle
possible in the afternoon evening
- brief mix possible Friday morning before turning over the rain
- quiet weather likely for the weekend and early next week

Discussion (this evening through next Tuesday)
issued at 315 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
there doesn't seem to be a big change in thinking regarding the
system coming through the area on Wednesday. Light snow will spread
through the area on Wednesday morning out ahead of the compact
incoming low. Plenty of lift with this system, but moisture is
limited with no moisture source being tapped for this system as the
gulf is cut off. This will keep accumulations light, generally an
inch or less. Roads should not be a problem during the daylight
hours with snow coming in after the morning commute, and temps
around freezing.

We could see the light snow turn over to some drizzle freezing
drizzle in the afternoon evening before precipitation ends Wednesday
evening. Forecast soundings show a decent potential of losing the
saturated dgz after the warm air advection moves through. Again
temps will be a couple of degrees within freezing. There is some
potential that this could somewhat impact the evening commute,
especially once the Sun GOES down and pavement temps drop. We will
monitor this for possible headlines.

The next weather maker for the area will arrive early Friday
morning. We will see moisture streaming north out ahead of the srn
stream system moving by to our south. This moisture will be acted
upon by the far SRN periphery of a northern stream system floating
by across the NRN great lakes. Most of the lower atmosphere will be
above freezing, except maybe for the immediate sfc. We could see a
brief window of freezing rain at the onset, but it would change over
quickly as the cold sfc would warm enough. The core of the system to
our south will stay south of the area.

We should quiet down after the Friday system, and could remain dry
through the end of the 7 day forecast period. This will be the
result of general amplified upper ridging that will control the
weather. The cold air will remain locked up across canada, and
moisture will remain locked up well south of the area. We do see a
short wave trying to slip through on Monday. This should have little
to no fanfare with no moisture expected to be nearby. We will see
cooler temps come in for early next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1153 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
the edge ofVFR ceilings just north of azo btl jxn is expected to
continue lifting northward, relieving mkg grr lan of MVFR cigs
between 06z 1am and 0730z 230am.VFR conditions are then expected
to prevail at all TAF sites through the early morning hours. MVFR
turning to ifr CIGS are expected to return during the late morning
and early afternoon hours with patches of liquid drizzle.

Confidence has lowered in the potential for snow to impact the
terminals, though there remains a signal for a brief period of
precipitation, likely snow mixed with rain, from roughly 21z 4pm
to 00z 7pm at all TAF sites. Patchy freezing drizzle will then be
possible at all TAF sites from 00z 7pm to 06z 1am, though coverage
is uncertain given conditions will become less favorable with time during
the aforementioned time period.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
we will be issuing another small craft advisory for the nearshore
area valid from later tonight through most of the daylight hours of
Wednesday. Gradient increases quite a bit with the incoming compact
low. Waves will be limited a bit, as the flow is offshore in nature
from the se.

Hydrology
Issued at 315 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
no hydrology concerns are expected over the next week. We will see
some runoff from residual snowmelt that will occur with temps going
above freezing, but this will be slow and gradual with not a lot of
runoff expected. We will see some rainfall with the system on
Friday, however these amounts look like they should remain below
half an inch for all of the area. These factors may cause slight
rises on the area rivers, but nothing that should cause impacts. Dry
weather will likely then persist for the weekend and early next
week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Wednesday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Njj
discussion... Njj
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... Njj
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 9 mi48 min E 8.9 G 12 30°F 1015.7 hPa23°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 17 mi42 min E 11 G 14 30°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 40 mi72 min SSE 1 G 5.1 29°F 1016.9 hPa (-1.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 41 mi32 min SE 7 G 8 30°F 1018.4 hPa22°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI10 mi19 minESE 67.00 miFair29°F23°F78%1017.1 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI20 mi16 minESE 77.00 miFair30°F24°F82%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16
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W15W11W10W8W10W10W9W7NW73W3NE3NE3E3E4E3E3E5SE4SE7E6E6
1 day agoCalmSE3S4S3CalmSE3CalmSW3W11W11W9W13W14SW12SW9S5S5SW14SW13
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmS3S3S4S6S4S3SW5W9NW8W8W8W9
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NW4N4W5NW8NW5CalmNE3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.