Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:57PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 6:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ168 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 345 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early...then showers and Thunderstorms likely from late morning on. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168 Expires:201707220215;;608712 FZUS61 KCLE 211945 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 345 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift NE across the lake on Saturday as low pressure 29.60 inches tracks across the Lower Lakes. The low will track into Western New York Sunday night forcing a cold front across Lake Erie. A second cold front is expected to cross on Monday. High pressure 30.20 inches will then shift east across the Great Lakes Tuesday and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday morning. LEZ061-167>169-220215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 212002
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
402 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will attempt to lift
north as a warm front overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to track along this boundary on Saturday, eventually
pushing it south of the area Saturday night. A compact upper
level trough will move across the great lakes region on Sunday
with high pressure arriving for the early part of next week.

Near term through Saturday night
Clouds continue to thin except across the far southern tier of
counties where the CU field is starting to thicken. This is in an
area of weak surface convergence left from the morning MCS that
passed to the south. Some instability is present but a cap is in
place above 850mb and think it will be very difficult to get
anything more than a weak shower late this afternoon. Will keep an
isolated mention of a thunderstorms in the forecast across our
southern tier of counties for a few hours. Clouds will trend
towards mostly clear for the first part of the night before
starting to thicken and lower from the west late. Dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s and some patchy fog is possible, mainly
in the east where skies will be clear longer. Lows tonight will
range from the mid to upper 60s east to near 70 in the west.

Attention then turns to convection developing upstream that will
likely reach the area late tonight into Saturday morning. The warm
front will attempt to push north tonight with an MCS tracking east
southeast along the boundary, likely reaching NW ohio between
10-12z. The MCS is expected to be weakening as it moves into the
area but this will be something to monitor with a 45 knot low
level jet feeding into the back side. Training of storms along
the frontal boundary does present a concern for heavy rainfall
with pw values surging into the region. Did not issue a flood
watch but one may still be needed depending on the intensity and
movement of the MCS as it approaches. Trended highs down a few
degrees on Saturday given expected cloud cover and showers.

The most likely scenario on Saturday is for the MCS with widespread
rainfall to move through in the morning with this limiting
destabilization for part of the afternoon. If lesser amounts of rain
are received in the morning then potential for severe thunderstorms
in the afternoon along the warm front are higher. The whole forecast
area is included in a slight risk of both severe thunderstorms and
excessive rainfall. If robust convection does re-develop Saturday
afternoon evening then damaging wind gusts and large hail will be a
possibility. Given the proximity to the warm front, there could also
be a tornado threat but seems like the less likely scenario.

Whatever convection re-develops along remnant outflow
boundaries or the warm front will tend to favor a
south southeast movement towards the greater instability
reservoir into Saturday night. Thunderstorms will continue to be
efficient rainfall producers until this boundary finally pushes
south of the area late Saturday night.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Some lingering showers especially in the east on Sunday with
low pressure over eastern lake erie. At this time models not in
good agreement on the exact track and timing of the low so will
only go with chance pops for Sunday. Secondary trough rotates
across the eastern lakes Sunday night kicking off a few more
showers. True cold front finally pushes across the forecast area
late Monday ushering cooler and drier conditions. Temperatures
for the early part of the work week will actually be a couple of
degrees below normal.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday as large area of high
pressure moves over the area. High pressure should dominate
enough to keep conditions mainly dry thru wed. Warmer temps and
moisture return for Wed night into Thu while a weak cold front
drifts SE toward the area which could combine to start
triggering a few shra tsra. The threat for shra tsra will
continue for Fri but right now the better chc appears to be for
the SW half of the CWA as the cold front is expected to be into
central oh by then.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions will continue through at least 03z with sct-bkn
cu deck near 4k feet clearing with time. Clouds will thicken
with time overnight but enough radiational cooling with moist
ground conditions are present for patchy fog to develop, mainly
at the southeastern terminals after 06z. The forecast beyond
that point depends on the evolution of a larger convective
complex that is expected to develop across the western great
lakes tonight and track into western ohio late tonight. Have
tried to time this into the area with rain and vcts at all
terminals for a window of time late tonight into Saturday
morning. Adjustments to timing and intensity will be needed as
storms approach. Very heavy rainfall is possible and could
result in several hours of ifr conditions Saturday morning.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Saturday night and Sunday in early
morning fog mist or scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Non-vfr in early morning fog mist may continue
during the first half of the week.

Marine
Warm front across SW ohio will lift NE over the lake overnight.

Thunderstorms complex expected to move along the boundary across the
lake late tonight. Choppy conditions will develop on the lake
Saturday as a low pressure system tracks across the lower lakes. The
exact track of the low still in doubt, so a marginal small craft
advisory is not out of the question. Winds turn back to the west
late Sunday as the low tracks east of the lake. High pressure
finally builds over the lake Monday night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec
short term... Djb
long term... Adams djb
aviation... Kec
marine... Djb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi46 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 77°F1013.5 hPa (-0.2)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 56 mi86 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 77°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 58 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi46 min 78°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.0)72°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
SW13
SW10
SW8
SW5
SW5
SW4
--
SW5
S3
SW5
SW7
SW7
SW6
SW5
SW5
W7
W2
NW4
--
NW2
NW7
N6
N8
N7
1 day
ago
W5
SW7
SW4
S3
SW3
SW4
SW3
S5
S5
S4
SE1
S6
S6
S8
G11
SW10
SW11
SW12
SW17
W17
W18
W17
W14
SW17
SW16
2 days
ago
NE8
E9
E6
SE4
SE7
SE4
SE5
SE4
SE2
S2
SW3
SW7
G10
SW6
S7
SW8
SW10
W11
W11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi53 minN 310.00 miFair80°F70°F71%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrW6W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm4NW53NW3NW5W55N6N6N3
1 day agoNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW10SW13
G20
SW17W18
G25
W16
G22
W11
G16
W11NW7W8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3--------CalmCalmW6NW4W7NW9W7W10
G14
W9NW9NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.