Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:57PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:33 PM EST (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 7:38PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 923 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LEZ168 Expires:201711212115;;747255 FZUS61 KCLE 211423 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 923 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.10 inches will track to near James Bay late today forcing a cold front across Lake Erie tonight. A ridge 30.30 inches will move east across the lake Wednesday afternoon and evening. A warm front will move northeast across the lake Friday followed by a cold front Saturday. LEZ061-165>169-212115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211805
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
105 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure north of lake superior will move eastward across
ontario today. A cold front extending south from the low will
move across the region Tuesday evening. High pressure will
take control of the region on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday night.

Near term through Wednesday
Update... Made minor timing adjustments to hourly sky and pop
grids... Otherwise no changes.

Previous discussion...

gusty southwesterly winds will continue into the afternoon as
we await the arrival of a cold front. The cold front will cross
the are this evening. It should pick moisture up off of lake
erie with showers most numerous across NE oh NW pa generally
from cleveland to erie. Temperatures drop quickly in the wake of
the front with rain changing over to snow after midnight. Any
accumulations will be on the light side. The greatest
accumulations may be an inch or 2 across the hills of NW pa,
generally from edinboro to wattsburg. High pressure will take
control of the area by Wednesday afternoon with any lake effect
snow showers across NW pa ending.

It will be warm today with highs 50 to 55. Cooler on Wednesday
with highs dipping back to the middle 30s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Surface high pressure will be in control from Wednesday night
through Friday. Skies will initially be partly cloudy Wednesday
night, but as more and more of the moisture gets scoured out
Thursday into Friday, skies will become mostly clear. The one
exception will be across extreme northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania where the clouds will persist a bit longer. Overall the
weather looks benign for thanksgiving day with southwest winds
around 10 to 15 mph and high temperatures in the upper 30s to near
40, except the middle 30s across inland northwest pennsylvania.

Clouds will begin to increase from northwest to southeast Friday
evening into Friday night ahead of an approaching trough and
associated cold front. With the frontal passage holding off until
Friday night highs will be able to rise into the lower 40s across
inland northwest pennsylvania and the middle to upper 40s elsewhere.

There won't be a ton of moisture available ahead of this cold front,
so just how widespread the precipitation will be is still a bit of a
question. Currently have widespread chance pops across the region
with some likely pops over part of lake erie. The best chances for
precipitation will be across northern areas. Precipitation is
expected to remain in the form of rain through Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Rain showers will be ongoing across the far eastern part of the
forecast area Saturday morning in the wake of the cold front. A
secondary cold front will filter in the colder air Saturday
afternoon. Winds will initially be out of the west-southwest
Saturday morning but will turn around to the northwest by late
Saturday evening into Saturday night as a large upper-level trough
becomes anchored over the region. This will kick off the lake-effect
snow machine with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -10c by
Saturday night. Precipitation should transition from a mix over to
all snow at some point Saturday night.

On and off lake-effect snow is then expected to continue from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Multiple short wave troughs
will round the base of the larger trough with the lake-effect snow
bands moving around with the passage of each short wave. Some
accumulating snow is expected across the snowbelt as there will be
ample moisture available within the snow growth zone, inversion
heights topping out around 10k feet, a lake surface to 850mb delta t
of around 20c, and little directional shear. Still too far out to
get into any more specifics at this point.

The lake-effect snow should start coming to an end Monday as a large
ridge begins to move in from the west and a surface high moves in
from the southwest. This will back winds around to the west by
Monday afternoon and the southwest by Monday night. The combination
of the upper-level ridge and high pressure should make for dry
conditions once the lake-effect snow ends Monday with dry weather
continuing into Tuesday.

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for the temperatures
through the long term. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper
40s prior to the passage of the secondary cold front. Highs will
generally be around freezing Sunday and only a bit warmer
Monday. As warm air advection returns Monday night into Tuesday
highs will rise back into the middle 40s for Tuesday. Low
temperatures will be in the 20s throughout the long term.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Cold front to our west will move through during the late
afternoon and early evening. Expect it into the ktol area around
21-22z time frame, kcle and kmfd around 00z and keri 01z-02z.

ExpectVFR ahead of the front with CIGS dropping to MVFR briefly
in its wake. Southeast of the lake however expect enhancement as
the colder air fills in post front which will keep MVFR
conditions through the balance of the night and possibly into
Wednesday morning before lifting as drier air moves in.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions possible across extreme NE oh nw
pa into Wednesday evening. The next chance for non-vfr
conditions will come Saturday as another cold front moves
through.

Marine
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the entire lake this
morning as strong southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots continue. Winds
may increase a touch more later this morning into early this
afternoon before they veer around to the west by this evening and
the northwest by tonight. The small craft advisory for the western
basin has been extended through late this evening as winds will
continue to remain around 20 to 25 knots through the entire period
with waves increasing to 3 to 5 feet for a brief period this evening
into early tonight as winds turn around to the northwest. As winds
turn around to the northwest waves will increase everywhere along
the lakeshore so the small craft advisory for the rest of the lake
continues through Wednesday.

Winds will gradually diminish to light west and southwest by
Wednesday night. Southwest flow will return and increase Thursday,
diminish slightly Thursday night, and strengthen once again for
Friday into the weekend. A small craft advisory will likely be
needed during this time period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>144.

Synopsis... Mullen
near term... Tk mullen
short term... Mottice
long term... Mottice
aviation... Tk
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi93 min SW 25 G 33 49°F 50°F9 ft1007.2 hPa (+0.6)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 56 mi52 min WSW 16 G 24 53°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 58 mi33 min SW 22 G 27 53°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.3)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi45 min SSW 11 G 18 53°F 1008.9 hPa30°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi40 minSW 18 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy53°F28°F38%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13
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1 day agoW5W9W11
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W10SW8SW12SW12SW11S11SW11SW11SW13SW14S15
2 days agoS9S10S14
G18
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SW10SW7NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.