Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:17PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230757
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
357 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Discussion
Deep layer moisture of tropical origin firmly entrenched across
southeast michigan early this morning. Moistening process augmented
by the earlier strong northward expansion of high mid-level theta-e
content. This theta-e gradient providing the southern flank of a
well defined convergence axis also marked by the slow southeastward
sag of an elongated frontal boundary that now stretches from saginaw
bay to southern wisconsin. Forced ascent anchored on this frontal
slope maintaining a heavy concentration of convection throughout
this corridor. Advancement of the front into a moisture laden
resident airmass should subsequently support a shift of convective
activity into southeast michigan through the mid-late morning hours.

Instability limited by both the earlier convective overturning and
an arrival near the nocturnal minimum, so attaining greater
convective organization will be a struggle. Given precipitable
water values near 2 inches, heavy rainfall will remain the primary
issue.

Actual frontal passage will lag the exit of the deepest moisture
axis by several hours. This will leave a short window early this
afternoon for some degree of pre-frontal airmass recovery, mainly
southeast of a howell to port huron line as dewpoints hover in the
upper 60s. Assuming sufficient instability emerges, renewed
development of shallow line of convection could yield a quick shot
of rain thunder for a few locales before the front sweeps southeast.

Highs today in the vicinity of 80 degrees most locations. Turning
notably drier from northwest to southeast with the frontal passage,
as dewpoints eventually drop into the 50s all locations by this
evening.

Gradual reduction in mid level heights through the weekend period,
as broad upper troughing expands over the region. This will leave
weekend conditions defined as cooler and less humid. Steady
downward spiral of the thermal structure throughout the weekend,
with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out in the middle single digits
by Sunday. This will leave afternoon temperatures in the low-mid
70s Saturday, then potentially struggle to even reach 70f by Sunday
depending on cloud cover . The arrival of a weak pertubation timed
coincident with peak heating may support isolated to scattered
coverage of showers rumble of thunder? Saturday afternoon. The
corridor along and north of i-69 will be more favorably positioned
to witness some development. A stronger wave pivots across
north central lower mi Saturday night into Sunday morning. Given
the lack of a diurnal contribution to augment any uptick in forcing,
precipitation potential appears slim during this time.

Marine
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of the area
early today ahead of a cold front. Quieter weather is then expected
late today and tonight. West to northwest flow will develop behind
the front this afternoon and evening, and persist through the
weekend as broad low pressure remains in place over the great lakes.

Speeds are expected to remain modest, but gusts may just top 20
knots over western lake erie both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Hydrology
Heavy rainfall that occurred from late yesterday evening through
early this morning has caused widespread flooding across midland
county, and across a portion of bay and huron counties. This
flooding will be aggravated by additional rainfall through about
8am, as an additional one to two inches of rain falls. For the
remainder of southeast michigan, showers and thunderstorms over
central michigan will slide southward through the morning and early
afternoon as a cold front drops through the area. Less training of
storms is expected than what occurred over central michigan
overnight. Rainfall may be heavy at times, however, with rainfall
exceeding one inch in some areas. Dry weather is expected late today
and tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1220 am edt Fri jun 23 2017
aviation...

thunderstorm activity has become increasingly focused north of the i
69 corridor in response to theta E transport up against a synoptic
scale frontal boundary. Consensus of model data continues to suggest
this thunderstorm activity will impact northern portions of the
forecast area through 09z tonight. Synoptic scale convergence and
frontal forcing will become progressive after 09z sinking down
throughout much of southeastern michigan by 15z. Torrential rainfall
rates will be common with thunderstorm activity tonight.

Model data advertises a broad surface trough in place throughout
much of southeastern michigan through Friday. This will limit the
pressure gradient and keep wind speeds relatively subdued throughout
much of the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low confidence in timing of thunderstorms for much of tonight,
becoming medium confidence for 09-13z Friday.

* high confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft tonight into Friday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch until 6 am edt early this morning for miz047>049-
053>055-060>062.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
aviation... ..Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi42 min SSW 7 G 11 73°F 1005.8 hPa (-2.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi42 min SW 7 G 15 74°F 1005.8 hPa (-2.9)66°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi48 minSW 510.00 miOvercast71°F65°F83%1005.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi49 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1004.1 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi49 minSW 710.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE7S7S9S4SW4SW10
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SW5SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmSW8S6S5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmNE4N4E4W4SW4CalmNW3CalmS5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4S5S5
2 days agoSW6W6W6W10
G15
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SW9W11
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SW4W5SW6W4W3NW4SW3NW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.