Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:48 AM EST (10:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:16AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 130837
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
337 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Discussion
Heavy snow to impact the evening commute.

Strong clipper system entering the western great lakes this morning,
with the 990-992 mb low tracking through far southern lake michigan
this afternoon, as the two strong upper level waves 500 mb height
fall centers are already in lockstep and beginning to merge, with
the consolidated MAX height fall center tracking close to the
southern michigan border early this evening.

Excellent low level jet (55+ knots at 850 mb) over the ohio valley
nosing into southern lower michigan during the day, leading to
intense lift isentropic ascent fgen lined up over the heart of the
cwa 18-23z, the worst possible time for the evening commute. Overall
moisture content still not very impressive, as specific humidities
rise to around 2.25 g kg, but across a fairly deep layer. Still,
pristine thermal profiles with the best lift in the dgz should be
conducive for good snow to liquid ratios 15:1 far south to 18:1
north (on average through most of the event). Expecting about a 3-4
hr window of snowfall rates at or above 1 inch, and if the 00z nam
negative epv in the 850-700 mb layer verified, then could see rates
approach 2 inches, however most other models are bit more stable.

Real good model consensus depicting MAX qpf slightly better than 4
tenths of an inch. The 00z euro, which seems to be lined up with
fairly well right now, trended a bit farther north. Thus, some big
concerns with the mid level dry slot impinging north this afternoon
across the southern michigan border, shutting off precipitation for
a period, possibly as far north as the i-94 corridor. None-the-less,
local probabilistic guidance (heavily influenced by sref) also
indicating high likelihood of 7 inches across wayne county, and with
possibility of a little moisture flux boost low level convergence
off lake erie after 21z as sfc-925 mb winds come around to the south
and then southeast, and went ahead and upgraded wayne and washtenaw
counties. Otherwise, farther north, feel pretty good with a swath of
5 to 8 inches (isolated higher totals possible), and upgraded the
majority of the counties to a winter storm warning (15z-5z). Went
with an advisory for bay county and thumb region as residual dry
airmass holds on longer, but winds shifting to the north this
evening should allow for some lake huron enhancement continuing past
midnight, allowing those counties to be in the 3 to 7 inch range.

Went with advisory for lenawee and monroe for 3 to 6 inches with the
dry slot concerns and being so close to the surface low, along with
the diminished snow to liquid ratios.

Clearing out late tonight with winds diminishing, and should be able
to dip into the 5 to 15 degree range with the fresh snow cover,
which will likely hold maxes into the 15 to 20 degree range for
Thursday as 850 mb temps reside in the negative mid teens.

Digging trough axis swinging through Thursday night into Friday
looks to provide additional light snow, especially with the help
from lake michigan with the westerly flow. Possible messy wintry
mix or even rain scenario for the end of the weekend as low pressure
is forecasted to track through the western great lakes (per 00z
euro), with a good shot of temperatures climbing into the mid to
upper 30s.

Marine
Winds and waves will subside steadily early this morning and have
allowed gale warning to expire. A storm system will then bring
moderate snow from across southern lake huron southward today. As
this low pressure passes to the south, winds will increase from the
northeast tonight and then back to northwest on Thursday. While gale
conditions are not anticipated, the strong onshore flow will lead to
building waves and the need for small craft advisories over the near
shore waters tonight into Thursday before winds back to northwest
and takes the higher waves east away from the michigan shore. Cold
air will help produce bands of lake effect snow on lake huron
Thursday. Another system will help back the flow to the southwest
for Friday while bringing more snow activity to the lakes. At this
time, winds are not expected to reach gales again at least through
the upcoming weekend.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1203 am est Wed dec 13 2017
aviation...

lake effect stratocumulus has become entrenched over much of the
southern CWA while skies have been largely clear over the thumb this
evening. Have also been monitoring a very narrow lake effect snow
band that has become steady state over the area the past few hours.

Surface winds are expected to weaken after 06z as a short wavelenth
ridge axis builds through the area. Small scale band should then
fall apart, or move out of the area as the delicate convergence
feature is disrupted.

A clipper system is forecasted to dig into the central great lakes
region Wednesday bringing a widespread accumulating snowfall. High
cloud will overspread the state late tonight before the lower column
moistens and MVFR CIGS vsbys develop in light snow by 15z. Peak of
the event is expected between 20-01z over southeastern michigan with
periods heavy snow possible. Vlifr to lifr conditions will be
possible in heavy snow during the evening. East to north winds are
forecasted during the event with windspeeds in the 10 to 15 knot
range.

For dtw... With the extremely isolated nature of the vicinity lake
effect band will continue to monitor and leave out of the taf
forecast. MVFR light snow developing after 15z Wednesday, with ifr
light snow after 18z. Peak of the event is expected between 22-02z
with vlfir lifr in heavy snow possible.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence in CIGS at below 5000 ft agl for the TAF period.

* moderate to high confidence in heavy snow with visibilities less
than 1 2sm and CIGS at or less 200 ft agl 22-02z

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to midnight est
tonight for miz047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076.

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 5 am est Thursday for
miz049-054-055-063.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight est
tonight for miz048-082-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am est Thursday
for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Dg
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi48 min W 5.1 G 8 16°F 1011.2 hPa (+0.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi48 min W 8 G 11 19°F 1011.3 hPa (-0.5)8°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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NW15
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E1
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SW6
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G6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi53 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast15°F9°F78%1009.5 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi55 minW 610.00 miOvercast14°F9°F80%1010.6 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi55 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast15°F9°F77%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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NW6NW9NW7NW7NW7W10W8W8W5W4W4CalmSW3SW3
1 day agoE3CalmSE4SE7SE5SE5S6S4S6SE8SE8S7SE7S5S5S3CalmW4W7NW12
G17
N10
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G23
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G25
2 days agoSW7SW10SW7SW10SW13
G17
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G14
SW12SW10
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SW10SW8SW6SW7SW7W6W7NW6NW5W8NW6NW5W3NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.