Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:15PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:46 PM EST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 212343
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
643 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Aviation
Surface anticyclone building across the northern great lakes will
allow low level flow trajectories to become increasingly more
easterly tonight. Lower level dry air advection will help dissipate
lower boundary layer MVFR cloud this evening, also getting
additional support with thickening mid cloud aloft. Long period of
vfr conditions tonight then right into tomorrow for most of the taf
sites. Will be watching for potential of light precipitation to lift
northward across the ohio border, into michigan between 10-14z. Hrrr
and regional gem are the most bullish bringing light precipitation
just south of dtw, while the NAM is much farther south. Looking
through thermal fields suggests that any forcing that could bring
precipitation will be very high in column upwards of 10-12kft agl,
as low level dry air feed will hold strong. Preference is to
continue a dry forecast with virga likely overspreading the
terminal. It appears that for precipitation to occur its going to
take a greater northward displacement of the shortwave than the
consensus. Also, high confidence that conditional precipitation type
will be snow due to wet bulbing effects. To reiterate, a dry
forecast will be in the detroit tafs.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less right at start of the taf
period. Low tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 330 pm est Wed feb 21 2018
discussion...

flood watch will be allowed to expire.

Slow weakening flattening of the summer-like upper level ridge (595
dam at 500 mb) anchored just off the east coast over the next
several days.

Frontal boundary and record setting moisture axis has pushed into
the southern ohio valley, with drier and colder air filtering into
southern lower michigan this evening, as surface dew pts lower into
the 20s and upper teens. Even with mid high clouds around tonight,
temperatures should have no problem falling into the 20s, leading to
any residual standing water freezing up. Motorists should be
cognizant of the potential icy patches on area roads, not
to mention additional potholes.

Upper wave coming out of texas this afternoon will track through
lower michigan tomorrow morning. The question is whether low level
dry air and anticylonic flow will hold on to maintain dry
conditions, with locations toward the ohio border possibly getting
clipped. 12z regional gem remains most adamant, while nam GFS hold
serve and suppress activity just to the south. Will carry chance
pops south of eight mile, as latest rap hrrr showing a real close
call. Thermal profiles suggesting it would be just cold enough for
snow, as you have to get up toward 600 mb for ice nuclei present.

Yet another upper wave coming out of texas on Thursday. Stronger and
deeper southwest flow with this one will allow deeper moisture to
make better inroads north, as pw values around 1 inch reach the
southern michigan border by 12z Friday. The strong high pressure
over eastern canada will be giving way, but there still an
opportunity for surface temps to be at or below freezing as the
precipitation initially develops, especially if it occurs before
sunrise Friday. Good surge of warm advection then taking over
during the day on Friday, with 925 850 mb temps rising into the mid
single numbers.

Low pressure developing in conjunction with a shortwave ejecting
from the western us trough will bring another chance for widespread
precipitation to the region this weekend. Model guidance is in
fairly good agreement that this low will track from the central
plains on Saturday to the up of michigan by early Sunday. A
rain snow mix will be possible with the onset of precipitation on
Saturday before strengthening southerly flow pulls warm air
northward and transitions precipitation to rain. Precipitation then
ends early Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Behind
the front, better mixing and a tightening pressure gradient courtesy
of the strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds Sunday
afternoon as highs reach the upper 40s.

High pressure builds across the region early next week bringing dry,
quiet conditions as upper level ridging re-establishes itself over
the eastern us. Temperatures look to remain above average through
Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.

Marine...

a broad region of high pressure will move across the northern great
lakes tonight through Thursday. This will maintain dry conditions
over all marine areas except possibly some light snow over western
lake erie. The high will also maintain light wind across the north
half of lake huron and northeast wind mainly less than 20 knots over
southern marine areas. Wind will then veer to the south by Friday as
the next low pressure system moves into the western great lakes.

This system will bring generous coverage of mixed precipitation
changing to rain. Mild air will then be swept out by the associated
cold front on moderate wind speed shifting to northwest Friday
night. High pressure moves in briefly Saturday before a stronger low
pressure system arrives during Sunday.

Hydrology...

rain has ended across southeast michigan after a two day stretch
that produced 2 to 3 inches over a broad area of the region. The
flood watch has been cancelled for the potential of areal flooding,
however run-off from the rain and melted snow will continue to feed
creeks, streams, and rivers. Flood warnings are in effect for most
of the primary river basins around southeast michigan and will
likely remain in effect through the end of the week. Additional
mixed precipitation and rain during Friday is not expected to
contribute to additional flooding or prolong existing flooding.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi47 min NE 9.9 G 12 31°F 1036.2 hPa (+1.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi47 min E 13 G 18 35°F 1035.5 hPa (+2.3)31°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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S11
G15
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NW14
G23
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G27
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G19
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair34°F29°F84%1035.6 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi54 minN 310.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1035.9 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi54 minNE 410.00 miFair34°F27°F76%1036.8 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5SW5SW5SW6SW4NW9NW9NW9
G15
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NW8NW9NW7
G14
N4N4NW6N6N4NE4N3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW10SW9S5SW10
G16
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G15
SW17
G24
S8S11
G17
S6S8S8S8
G14
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SW14
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SW4S5S12
G18
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S7S14
G21
2 days agoSE8SE11SE13
G17
SE12S13
G18
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G15
S10S7S7S6S5S9SE4SE5S3S4SE6SE4SE6S6S7S8S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.