Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:00PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:35 AM EDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 330 Pm Edt Sun May 21 2017
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 328 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of new baltimore to grosse pointe to Monroe harbor...moving northeast at 30 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Detroit river light and st. Clair shores around 345 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor around 350 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...mt clemens harbor of refuge...st clair flats old channel light...elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 355 pm edt. Grosse ile around 400 pm edt. Lakeport and new baltimore around 410 pm edt. Algonac around 415 pm edt. Lexington around 420 pm edt. Other locations impacted by Thunderstorms include estral beach...stony point...woodland beach...detroit beach and gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4196 8332 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4335 8259 4343 8251 4312 8236 4289 8247 4262 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4229 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8332 4179 8349
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201705212130;;989569 FZUS73 KDTX 211930 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-212130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240935
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
535 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Aviation
Moisture will increase through the day as low pressure lifts toward
the region. Simply a substantial component of mid-high cloud will
define conditions through the morning period. Exception at mbs,
where the southern periphery of lifr stratus will linger into the
mid morning period before lifting. Defined axis of higher moisture
and instability will then pivot northwest across the southeast
michigan airspace through the afternoon hours. While the exact
coverage of thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain yet, the most
likely window for tsra to be in the vicinity is now highlighted for
all terminals. IntermittentVFR MVFR likely during this time, with
dependence on heavier showers storms to disrupt visibility. Low
level moisture will increase more substantially in the wake of this
instability axis toward evening, resulting a greater deterioration
of conditions. Ifr restrictions now appear possible within periodic
bouts of showers for portions of the region tonight. Modest
easterly winds today, becoming northeasterly tonight.

For dtw... Greatest window for tsra to lift across the airspace
remains centered 17z-21z. Movement from southeast to northwest
today. Existing northeast flow settles to east-southeast by midday,
then back to northeast again tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5kft thru 18z, then high mid afternoon onward.

* moderate for tstorms to impact the airspace 17-21z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 257 am edt Wed may 24 2017
discussion...

large upper low continues to churn south-southeast across ia and
will move into the oh and tn valleys by tonight. Then it slowly
moves to the mid atlantic sea board by Friday. A surface low will
develop this afternoon over northern ky southwest oh in response to
wave rotating around the east side of the upper low and the 150+ kt
jet streak. These features will be the main forecast issues over the
next two days. While the models do exhibit some differences, the
overall flavor is the same for southeast mi.

Southeast mi is in a region of weak forcing this morning with weak
moisture advection. This will keep the scattered high based showers
or sprinkles around this morning. Enough indication of thin spots in
the high clouds that there will be a few filtered rays of Sun around
daybreak before a thicker cloud shield develops. Modest fgen and
deformation will accompany a better theta-e advection pattern from
the southeast over much of the forecast area this afternoon. Model
soundings indicate possibly around 500 j kg of ml CAPE this
afternoon. This should be good enough for high likely or low
categorical pops for this afternoon with showers and a few storms.

With the clouds and showers around, will go toward the cooler met
numbers for highs.

The best response with the strongest fgen, deformation and jet
forcing occurs this afternoon and early evening well south of the
forecast area in ohio and east central in. This area will pivot into
the forecast area from southeast to northwest during the overnight
hours. While it will be weakening as it does move into southeast mi,
enough confidence of at least light QPF to have mostly categorical
pops tonight. Instability wanes tonight and will take out any
thunder mention.

Weak deformation axis and surface troughing remain over southeast mi
on Thursday with the upper low centered over oh. With a little
diurnal boost, expect scattered showers to develop quickly on
Thursday. Again will leave out any thunder mention with modest lapse
rates and little if any cape. Like Wednesday, clouds and showers
should keep high temps close to the cooler met numbers.

Think we can squeeze a dry day on Friday as surface ridge builds
over lower mi with rising 500 mb heights. Sun will be slow to return
with plenty of low clouds in the morning and mid and high clouds
already returning ahead of the next weak wave in the afternoon.

Speaking of that next weak wave, the NAM and canadian appear to be
having some convective feedback issues. Meanwhile the GFS and ecmwf
keep the wave weaker and much further to the south. Will have just
a chance of showers for the far south late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon is expected to be dry and
warmer ahead of the next cold front. That front and the next wave
still look to move through late Saturday night and Sunday as another
upper low settles over the great lakes bringing more cool and
unsettled weather for the beginning of next week.

Marine...

low pressure developing over the ohio valley today will lift north
and near southeast michigan tonight. This low will remain in the
vicinity through Thursday before exiting to east by Thursday night.

This will produce a stretch of unsettled weather, resulting in
episodic showers and a few thunderstorms during this time. A period
of moderate northeasterly winds will develop beginning today.

Despite the higher degree of stability over the waters, this
favorable trajectory may generate stronger gusts over saginaw bay.

This will warrant a small craft advisory today over the bay. The
steady onshore flow will then result in waves exceeding small craft
conditions for all lake huron nearshore waters by this evening. The
long duration will then maintain small craft advisory conditions
through Thursday. Eastward exit of this low will bring improving
conditions by Friday.

Hydrology...

low pressure developing over the ohio valley today will lift north
and near southeast michigan tonight. This low will remain in the
vicinity through Thursday before exiting to east by Thursday night.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will develop during this time,
producing rainfall averages ranging from less than half inch north
of i-69 to almost one inch towards the ohio border. There may be
locally higher amounts in areas that experience thunderstorms.

Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone areas is likely,
especially considering the widespread activity over the weekend that
left the ground saturated in most areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt Thursday
for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi35 min NNE 8 G 9.9 57°F 1003.4 hPa (+0.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi47 min ENE 5.1 G 7 61°F 1001.8 hPa56°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi41 minE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F51°F76%1002.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi42 minENE 810.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1001.9 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi42 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F52°F81%1002.8 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S4CalmSW3CalmCalmNW6NW5CalmCalmNW4N3CalmNE4E6E7NE5NE3NE3NE3NE4E4NE4
1 day agoW14
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W6SW3S3S5S5S6SW5SW4SW4SW4SW3SW4CalmSW3SW3
2 days agoS7S6S7S8CalmS3SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.