Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0004.000000t0000z-170301t0900z/ 349 Am Est Wed Mar 1 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4172 8346 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4201 8325 4204 8315 4200 8313 4190 8325 4189 8331 4182 8337 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0846z 274deg 49kt 4211 8288 4163 8356
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201703010858;;822801 FZUS73 KDTX 010849 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-010858-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 262317
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
717 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Aviation
Widespread ifr ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue
through much of the overnight. While pockets of slightly higher
ceilings may emerge for a few observations at the detroit regional
terminals, expect that the presence of the low-level warm front will
aid in collecting enough near surface moisture to re-establish lower
ceilings once again overnight. There appears to be enough boundary
layer flow overnight to support mainly a stratus deck with light fog
prevailing. Otherwise, a couple of rounds of showers will pivot
northeast across the region through midnight. There is an outside
shot for a couple of more vigorous updrafts capable of supporting
lightning. Coverage is far too paltry to insert into the terminal
forecasts at this time. For Monday, ceilings and visibilities will
improve through the morning - leaving an MVFR broken ceiling through
the afternoon.

For dtw... Ceilings will remain below 5kft through the forecast
frame. Visibilities will fluctuate the most during the first 4-6
hours as the surface warm front encourages greater moisture
convergence. There is a small chance for a thunderstorm in the
vicinity prior to midnight - but will handle with amendments. Winds
will emerge out of the southwest on Monday - helping to clear out
the near surface moisture.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet through the TAF period.

* low for thunderstorms in the dtw airspace through 05z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
discussion...

stacked/occluded low pressure system now lifting across northern il
will continue northeast and across lower mi while gradually
weakening tonight. Steady moisture transport within the immediate
downstream warm conveyor will maintain a presence through this
evening, before the inbound height falls squeeze this moisture plume
eastward. This will continue to support convective shower develop
as periodic episodes of greater ascent/convergence emerge within the
existing perturbed cyclonic flow and across the warm frontal zone.

Weak instability off the surface to maintain a shot at embedded
thunder, small hail a possibility given suppressed freezing levels.

Slow northward advancement of the surface warm front thus far, but a
late push may still provide a quick climb in temperatures /50s/ this
evening. Diminishing mid level ascent as the weakening circulation
passes overhead will sustain a disorganized and diminishing coverage
of showers through the overnight hours.

Trailing weak frontal passage Monday morning will provide a
minor/brief period of cold air advection across the 850-925 mb
layer, but will have little impact at the surface aside from a wind
shift to west-southwest. This advection combined with an already
moist low level profile will favor greater retention and/or renewed
development of clouds during the daylight period. In addition,
thickening mid level cloud associated with the next inbound
shortwave becomes a factor by afternoon. Despite this, resident
airmass remains relatively mild, arguing for modest recovery that
results in temperatures peaking above normal.

Attention for the Monday night period focused on the shortwave now
lifting out of the southern rockies. This system will make a
progressive move east-northeast over the next 36 hours, still
projected to translate across the ohio valley by Monday night. Lower
michigan will remain along the northern extent of any corresponding
increase in system relative isentropic ascent during this time. In
addition, model variance remains high in projecting a possible
trailing deformation axis, owing to continued differences in both
the strength and exact trajectory of the key features. 12z nam
unsurprisingly the most robust in development of this wave and a
corresponding maturation of the mid level dynamics to the north.

This solution would favor a more expansive and potentially heavier
rainfall scenario. 12z GFS arriving more in tune with the
ecmwf/canadian, providing simply a period of isentropic ascent.

Outgoing forecast will continue to hold the line with the less
dynamic model solution space, maintaining a measured stance on
precipitation chances and QPF totals with northward extent.

Increasing influence of 1035 mb high pressure centered over eastern
manitoba will then define conditions heading into the midweek
period. This in conjunction with confluent mid level flow will
establish a drying and more stable environment beginning Tuesday.

Cooler northerly flow with residual cloudiness will bring
temperatures back down toward seasonal averages for late march
/around 50 degrees/.

Surface high pressure will continue to keep conditions dry
throughout Wednesday as temperatures push into a seasonal lower 50s
for a daytime high. The GFS has finally come into better agreement
with both the ECMWF and gem model runs regarding a developing low
pressure system that is expected to move from tx into mi/ohio valley
Wednesday through Friday. Confidence is much higher regarding the
chance for precipitation starting Thursday morning/afternoon, with
pop values increasing late Thursday into Friday. Both the ECMWF and
gem models continue to exhibit a more northerly track with the low
compared to the gfs, pushing the low across southern michigan
through Friday afternoon. The GFS run tracks just south of michigan,
moving across the ohio valley throughout Friday.

In any case, while confidence in precipitation has risen, still some
minor questions remain regarding precipitation type. A warm column
of air overhead will bring rain throughout Thursday. Internal model
blends opted for a rain/snow mix and snow through Friday morning,
however, going to keep mostly rain for the cwa, except portions of
the thumb, as ECMWF and gem models keep us mild through the morning.

While the GFS is cooler at this time for the forecasted period,
forecasted soundings did not give any solid indication for a wintry
mix or snow through Friday morning. Additional tweaks in timing and
possibly precipitation type will be needed as the end of the week
approaches.

Marine...

winds will become fairly light this evening, gradually shifting from
southerly to westerly overnight as low pressure tracks through the
central great lakes. Rain showers will continue to affect the area,
with a few thunderstorms also possible over southern lake huron,
lake st clair and western lake erie through late tonight. A ridge of
high pressure will briefly build into the region Monday, keeping
winds light and bringing drier weather. The next low pressure system
will track close to the michigan/ohio border Monday night into
Tuesday, bringing another round of rain showers and a modest
increase in north winds.

Hydrology...

rain showers will become less widespread by late evening before
tapering off overnight. Additional rain amounts for the late
afternoon and evening will generally range around 0.25 inches or
less, but will be locally higher in any thunderstorms or stronger
showers that develop. Rain should be mainly out of the area by 2am.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Mr/am
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi41 min Calm G 1 42°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi41 min Calm G 1 45°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.3)43°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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E21
E16
G22
NE17
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G19
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NE9
G15
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G7
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G13
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NE3
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G9
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1 day
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SW11
G18
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G16
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G13
W6
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NE6
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G7
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NE3
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E17
G21
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G22
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G22
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G25
NE19
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G26
2 days
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E7
G10
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E5
NE1
SE1
G7
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G11
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G12
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G11
SW11
G15
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G17
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G19
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G24
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G27
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G24
SW13
G21
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G24
SW11
G22
SW11
G19
W11
G24
W9
G13
W7
G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi47 minS 52.50 miFog/Mist51°F48°F92%1011.5 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi48 minESE 31.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F93%1012.4 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi48 minS 44.00 miFog/Mist51°F48°F92%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13
G17
E11
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E10E7E7E8E3NE3NE3E5E5SE6SE8SE11E8SE12E5SE7S5SE6SE8S5SE6SE5
1 day agoN8
G15
NE9NE4NE4NE4E7NE5NE4NE5NE7N6NE4NE7NE8NE8NE9E7E8E10E9E7E9E12E12
G17
2 days agoSE11SE9S9SE9S8S10
G18
S6S13
G19
S9S6S7SW8SW9
G14
SW5SW7SW7SW12
G15
SW13
G18
SW10
G18
W12
G21
W9N4N3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.