Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:03PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 3:22PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1033 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms through about 2 am, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots backing southeast 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ845 Expires:201703240915;;981680 FZUS53 KGRR 240233 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1033 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ845-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrr 240229
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1029 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
rain chances will increase tonight and last through the weekend into
next week as a series of areas of low pressure will move through the
area. It will not be raining all of the time, but the chances will
remain. Warmer air will try to move in over the area, especially the
southern half of the state. Some of this rain will be accompanied by
the threat of thunder, especially tonight and Friday. Severe weather
is not expected.

Update
Issued at 1028 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
rain is spreading in on the nose of the 850mb low level jet and
strongest moisture advection. High resolution models like the
hrrrx indicate that this is the main push of precipitation tonight
with a tapering off overnight. Would not be surprised to see
another round of precipitation overnight though as a 50-55 knot
low level jet moves through.

As for the threat of thunderstorms, left the mention in the
forecast, as most unstable CAPE values have increased to 500-1000
j/kg west of the lake at 02z. Not expecting values that high to
advect in overnight as the drier air will act to erode the
precipitation and instability a bit. A rumble or two of thunder
cannot be ruled out between now and daybreak.

Bottom line, a slug of rain to move through with an embedded storm
possible through 07z. Another round of showers and a storm or two
possible overnight.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
our main challenge through the period is determining rainfall trends
as the area will become under the influence of a wetter pattern that
will be accompanied by more seasonable to warmer than average
temperatures. We are also watching the potential for some possible
freezing rain up north, if sfc temps can drop enough.

We are expecting a line of showers with embedded storms to move
in/develop overhead later this evening into the overnight hours
tonight. This will be in association with the best surge in moisture
transport in the lower levels. This will be fueled by a 50+ knot low
level jet that will move in tonight. Initially everyone will see the
opportunity develop from SW to ne. There will be a fgen band that
sets up across the NRN portion of the cwfa to north of the area as
the warm air is stopped from moving any further north. The thunder
threat looks to be elevated, so severe weather chances look quite
low.

The frontal set up will limit the best rain potential from m-20 and
to the north for Friday. South of this line, the warm sector will
bring temps into the 50s just north of i-96, to almost as warm as 70
across the far south.

We will see the rain potential then sink south late Fri night into
sat. This occurs as high pressure across canada strengthens, and
overcomes the front a bit. Lower michigan will be in the zone of
best fgen, and therefore will have the best threat of rain as short
waves ride along this boundary. The good thing is that all of the
deeper instability stays mostly south of the area after tonight,
keeping severe weather chances mainly out of the area. Rainfall will
begin to add up over time, creating wet conditions.

We will see rain chances continue then Sat night as the main low out
to our SW will lift up into the area. This will just reinforce the
moisture advecting over the area. It does appear that the low will
be occluding, so most of, if not all of the instability will stay
down around i-94 and areas south.

Regarding freezing rain chances, the chance is not zero late tonight
across the far NE counties, and again Sat night. The chances are
small enough at this time to keep out of the forecast for the time
being. This occurs as the high to our north will bring in a NE flow
with some cooler and drier air trying to advect in. The models are
in fairly good consensus keeping temps at least a tad above
freezing. If a trend develops for cooler temps up north, the chcs f
or some freezing rain there will go up. This is something we will be
watching.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
with a weakening low pressure system tracking into the CWA the risk
for showers will exist on Sunday. The atmosphere will be moist and
some weakness in the stability will be around... Which will support
at least moderate showers. The surface temperatures are forecasted
remain above freezing so no mixed precipitation will be in the
forecast.

The frontal zone will still be around through Monday. As a result
the risk for showers will exist. High pressure ridges in for Tuesday
and into Wednesday so will feature a mainly dry forecast.

Temperatures will likely end up a few degrees above normal for most
of the long term period.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 836 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
vfr weather prevails at 00z, with showers and thunderstorms
located to the west of lake michigan over wisconsin. We expect
some scattered showers to move into the area after 03z, with
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms for a few hours overnight
between 05z and 10z. The chances for thunderstorms is not high
enough to include a prevailing group in the tafs, but did include
vcts wording. Feel theVFR conditions will try to trend into the
MVFR category overnight as ceilings lower and some light fog
develops with the precipitation.

On Friday, gusty south-southwest winds will develop which will try
to push any lower ceilings northward out of the area. The
exception may be kmkg which may try to hang on to some lower
ceilings through the day.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
we will be holding on to the small craft advisory as is for this
forecast cycle for the northern two zones. Sse winds are up close to
criteria, as are waves near little and big sable points. There
should be a slight trend down after 00z, enough that we do not feel
the need to extend this out further.

Wave could come up enough in the warm sector near muskegon and point
south that advisory conditions may be met.

Hydrology
Issued at 146 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
an active weather pattern starting Thursday night and lasting
through at least early next week will provide multiple episodes of
at light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday
night through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches
will likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts favored
in muskegon river basin. River levels will likely rise as a result.

Some rivers may eventually climb back to bankfull next week.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Mjs
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Cas
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi47 min E 8 G 12
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi37 min N 8.9 G 9.9 43°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi27 min S 23 G 28 40°F 1016.7 hPa33°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
E6
E7
E8
E10
G13
E10
G16
E11
G15
E7
E7
G10
E8
G12
E9
G13
E10
G13
SE10
G16
SE7
SE7
G14
S13
G17
S14
G17
SE9
G16
S8
G13
SE8
G15
SE10
G15
SE10
G18
SE9
G13
E7
SE15
G19
1 day
ago
N11
G14
NE7
G10
NE6
G13
N8
G14
N7
N7
N8
N6
NE6
NE9
G12
NE3
G10
E5
N2
G7
NW10
NW10
NW11
NW11
NW11
NW11
G14
N10
N6
NE4
NE4
NE7
2 days
ago
N5
NW2
NW3
S2
SW4
NW3
NW9
NW13
NW23
NW25
NW25
NW26
G32
NW27
NW23
NW18
NW16
N18
G22
N16
G20
N7
N9
G17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi24 minSE 116.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Rain Fog/Mist39°F35°F86%1018.9 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi20 minNE 93.00 miLight Snow40°F36°F85%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrE4E3E3SE6SE5SE7SE5SE8E10SE12SE7SE10SE10SE12S16S11SE14SE13SE10SE12SE12S10SE6SE11
1 day agoN13
G22
N10
G16
N6N7
G14
N5N4N3N5NE7E7E9E6E45E5E5W9NW7W7NW4CalmNE3CalmNE3
2 days agoW3W3NW4NW4CalmCalmW4W3W5NW9N10NW10NW13
G22
NW14
G23
NW13
G26
NW15
G24
NW17
G29
NW15
G22
N10
G17
N8N10
G15
N10
G19
N8N9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.