Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:40PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1016 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Wednesday through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain through about 2 am, then partly cloudy overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west around 5 knots toward daybreak. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ845 Expires:201804250930;;455605 FZUS53 KGRR 250216 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1016 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-250930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 250357
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1157 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 321 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
high temperatures from the 50s to near 60 are expected the rest of the
week compared to normal highs of lower 60s for this time of year. Scattered
rain showers this afternoon and evening will exit the area Wednesday
morning.

Another chance of rain showers arrives late Thursday night and Friday
with a cold front which ushers in a cool air mass for the weekend,
again keeping highs in the 50s. Above normal temperatures into
the 70s are then expected early next week.

Update
Issued at 1036 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
a cold front is moving into the northwest portion of the forecast
area at 10pm up near ludington and baldwin. The front is expected
to progress rapidly to the south overnight. By 800am, the front
should be exiting the southern portion of the forecast area along
i-94.

Bands of rain developed earlier this evening, and are in the
process of losing some areal extent as of 1030pm. Expect the up
and down trend of the precipitation to continue tonight with an
overall north to south push. By 800am the rain should be exiting
the far south and southeast portion of the forecast area.

Temperatures will steadily fall tonight on increasing north winds.

Lows will range from 35-40 across central lower michigan to the
lower to middle 40s across southern lower michigan.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 321 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
no impact weather is expected and no changes from the previous forecast.

Main concern in this time period is precipitation trends today and
tonight.

Agree with previous forecaster that activity should increase this
afternoon and evening. At 2 pm edt a cold front extended roughly along
a duluth, minnesota to omaha, nebraska line. A strong attendant upper
pv anomaly seen on water vapor imagery. This feature will intensify
as it cross lower mi overnight. Precipitation over central lower mi
appears to be associated with mid-level fgen and should become heavier
as fgen increases ahead of the PV max. This feature will be displaced
eastward by the PV maximum and that should be an end to the rain. However,
some of the convection allowing models suggest that sprinkles will
be possible up around us-10 later in the morning behind the cold
front.

As noted previously afternoon cloud development could be substantial.

As winds shift to a northwest direction in the afternoon, temperatures
will stay chilly by the lakeshore from grand haven southward (that
is, where the lakeshore is more northwest-facing).

Thursday looks quieter with less wind and clouds.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 321 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
a mid level trough will be dropping down from the northwest to start
the period. One shortwave associated with this feature arrives in the
great lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Overall this
feature is shown to be weakening with time. Enough moisture and
lift are forecasted to support some shower activity which I will
keep in the forecast.

The next mid level vort MAX arrives Friday night. There are some differences
with the models. The high res euro is further south... Tracking the system
close enough to the area to support some precipitation. The GFS is north
and would keep it dry. Will feature only low pops for this potential
system for parts of the region. Temperatures at 925 mb from the high
res euro are positive through most of the night. That would limit the
risk for snow if this more southern track verifies. A cooler than normal
pattern sets up for the weekend behind this system.

Big warmup early next week. Deep warm air advection and the arrival
of a thermal ridge supports well above normal temperatures. I did nudge
temperatures up somewhat over the forecasted guidance.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
a mix of MVFR ifr conditions will gradually improve toVFR
overnight through mid morning and low clouds gradually dissipate
and exit.VFR conditions will then continue through the day
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Northwest winds will ramp up to
around 10-20 kts late Wednesday morning through the afternoon with
highest gusts at kmkg.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
timing of current small craft advisories look on track and no changes
are planned.

Hydrology
Issued at 321 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018
with no significant precipitation expected, river stages will
continue to fall and the 5 current advisories should be able to be
dropped relatively soon.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for lmz848-849.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lmz844>847.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Tjt
short term... Tjt
long term... Mjs
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Tjt
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi44 min NNW 12 G 13 43°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.0)42°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi44 min N 11 G 13 42°F
45029 20 mi24 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 42°F 38°F1 ft1016.6 hPa38°F
45168 22 mi24 min SE 9.7 G 14 41°F 40°F1 ft1016.8 hPa36°F
45161 39 mi44 min NNE 14 G 18
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi34 min NNE 12 G 16 49°F 1017.2 hPa37°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 44 mi44 min NNE 6 G 8 45°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi51 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1015.8 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair46°F43°F89%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE3SE6E5E5E6SE7SE7SE8SE6SE7NE5NE7E4NE7NW6W3N4CalmE4CalmN5NE3N5
1 day agoNE4NE5NE5E4NE6NE5E7E7NE7NE8NE7E9E12E8NE8NE8
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4E4SE5E6E8E8E9E10E13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.