Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:38PM Sunday April 23, 2017 1:36 AM EDT (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:27AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sat Apr 22 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds around 10 knots veering northeast late at night, then veering southwest toward daybreak. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots backing east after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201704230915;;120046 FZUS53 KGRR 230205 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1005 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ845-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 230521
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
121 am edt Sun apr 23 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017
dry high pressure will be over michigan the next few days resulting
in mainly clear skies. Patchy frost is again possible tonight as
temperatures fall into the 30s. Chances for rain will increase
Tuesday night as a cold front approaches. Temperatures will climb
into the 70s Tuesday ahead of the cold front before slipping back
into the 50s toward the end of the week.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 328 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017
forecast concerns are minimal and mainly deal with the frost
potential tonight.

Satellite imagery shows some high clouds over the southern cwa,
otherwise mostly clear skies were noted. Once again today, dewpoints
were lower than guidance suggested due to good mixing. With clear
skies again expected tonight we'll see temperatures fall into the
30s. I expect patchy frost again, but not widespread with rh the
limiting factor. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer tonight
than last night. Coupled with limited low level moisture, we're
likely to see patchy frost.

Mostly clear skies again Sunday through Monday. Temps will warm a
few degrees each day and night. Highs in the mid 60s Sunday and near
70 Monday are expected.

Long term (Tuesday through Saturday)
issued at 328 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017
this is more and more looking like a stormy period of weather for
southwest lower michigan. There are three storms that come through
this area. The most significant will be the last in the series,
which could impact us in the Sunday to Monday time frame. All three
storms could produce severe weather but the more likely outcome will
be heavy rain. For this entire period it is very possible some
locations could see over 3 inches of rain. There will likely be wide
swings in temperature as we get into the warm sector at least with
the Wednesday and Sunday storms. This will be followed by brief cold
periods before the next storm arrives.

As I have been writing about for the past few days, our old friend
the east asian jet (eaj) sends a series of shortwaves and their
assoicated jet cores into the western conus. There are actually
only two jet segments with this eaj. We get three systems because
the lead wave kicks out system now just offshore of western north
america, as far south as california. The first jet core digs a deep
trough over the rocky mountains by Tuesday. The second one digs
into the trough created by the first one in the Thursday time frame.

That retrogrades and deepens this this trough. It is that event that
sets the stage for the Sunday event (being the most impactful for
our area).

The cips extended analogs and the experimental spc CFS severe
weather guidance for several days now have been very consistent with
all three of these phases. It shows the southern 1/3 of lower
michigan in the northern edge of the severe threat area. The cips
analogs and the wpc 5 to 7 day QPF forecast, the gfs, the gfs
ensembles, the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensembles all show an area of 2+
inches of rain into lower michigan between Wednesday and next
Monday.

The Wed system has a coupled jet to help its cause (departing
northern stream and incoming southern stream jets) the Fri system
has a jet exit region and the Sunday system has the main core of the
eaj rounding the base of the trough creating an enhanced coupled jet
feature over our area. Each event has high precipitable water values
assoicated with them, each has at least a 40 to 50 knot low level
jet and all three have the 1000/850 moisture transport vectors aimed
at us. The Sunday system is the most impressive. Which makes sense
given it has the core for that eaj feature coming at us.

What is a little different on today's runs from yesterday is that
the Wednesday system is stronger (does not shear out as fast) so
that could result in a bigger impact for our area. The Friday
system is farther south so we do not get into the warm air, but if
the warm front gets close to us we would have an enhanced tornado
risk. The Sunday system still looks powerful and will need to be
watched closely.

So, my bottom line is storm in the Wed to Sunday time frame.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 121 am edt Sun apr 23 2017
vfr conditions will continue through Sunday.

Winds have become light and variable in many locations tonight.

Winds are likely to remain near or less than 5 knots through much
of the day Sunday. The exception will be at kmkg and kgrr, where
winds could increase between 5-10 knots as they eventually turn
out of the northwest during the afternoon. Dry air will provide
for clear skies and unlimited visibilities through the period.

Marine
Issued at 328 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017
high pressure will be over michigan the next few days resulting in
relatively light winds and waves less than 3 feet.

Hydrology
Issued at 328 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017
the 7 river forecast points out of their banks are near crest or
already falling. Dry weather through Tuesday will allow rivers to
recede below bankfull on some but not all rivers. An active weather
pattern is probable for the region the latter half of the upcoming
week. There is a chance for basin-average rainfall to exceed 1-2
inches by next weekend, though there is low confidence exactly where
the axis of heaviest rain will set up. Many rivers will still be
running higher than normal going into this active pattern, so they
will be susceptible to at least minor flooding again if heavy rain
does occur.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... 04
short term... 04
long term... Wdm
aviation... Jam
hydrology... Cas
marine... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi48 min SSE 1 G 1.9 44°F 27°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi36 min E 1.9 G 1.9 45°F
45029 20 mi36 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 46°F1 ft1021.8 hPa (+0.0)38°F
45168 22 mi36 min E 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 47°F1 ft1022 hPa (+0.0)38°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi36 min NW 1 G 1 44°F 1021.5 hPa40°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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N7
N4
G8
NE5
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N6
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G14
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G11
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NE6
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W6
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SE1
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W13
G16
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N9
G12
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G11
NE6
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NW13
G60
NE9
G14
E12
G15
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E8
G14
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SW5
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W12
W10
W12
G20
W14
W13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1021.5 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair36°F29°F77%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N4N4N3CalmCalmNE7N6E5E866W10W10NW9NW10NW9NW7NW5NW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW10W11
G17
W9
G18
NW13
G18
NW10
G18
NW16
G23
NW13
G20
NW11
G18
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G22
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G21
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NW11NW12
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NW9NW8NW10N7NW4CalmCalmNE5NE4
2 days agoE14E15
G21
E16E10N7E12E10SE10SE13SE8SE5SW15
G21
W18
G24
W8NW11
G18
W10W8W13
G23
W13
G21
W11
G17
W11
G21
W11W12
G18
W13
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.