Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:30PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:18 PM EST (01:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 182322
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
622 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Periods of wet weather will overspread the region tonight as a
warm front lifts northward across the region. A strong cold
front will sweep across the area Sunday morning, resulting in
windy conditions and falling temperatures. Precipitation will
become less widespread and begin to mix with snow over the
higher terrain. Lake effect snow will occur in favored regions
Sunday night into Monday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 600 pm est... Mesonet observations reveal wet bulb freezing
temperatures remain in place across portions of the mohawk
valley which has been addressed with the sps and updated hourly
grids forecast. Otherwise, strong band of precipitation was
fast approaching from the southwest as initial shot of
isentropic lift and theta-e advection was underway. Pops wx was
updated slightly per observations and latest mesoscale model
runs of the nam3km and hrrr.

Prev disc... The magnitude of warm advection increases through
the evening hours as low level jet increases toward 50kts this
evening upstream as temperatures should steady off and beginning
climbing overnight. The initial shot of isentropic lift should
allow for break out of showers south of i90 to advance northward
before the second and stronger surge of higher theta-e air
arrives late this evening. This is when periods of rain will
occur. As the region becomes well embedded in the warm sector
late tonight, periods of rain should begin to transition toward
showers as temperatures continue to climb through the 40s for
many locations. Toward 10-12z timeframe, per the latest
rap hrrr, cold front will be crossing the western mohawk valley,
dacks and schoharie valley. Thermal profiles per west-east
cross sections suggest the cold advection should be delayed a
bit so we will hold onto the liquid portion of the forecast at
this time.

Strong cold frontal passage occurs through the early morning
hours on Sunday. Surface low is progged to deepen toward 978mb
across the st lawrence valley as deformation axis moves across
the dacks, mohawk valley. A period of rain snow transitioning to
all snow should commence through the morning hours Sunday. In
addition, winds will quickly shift to the west-northwest and
increase rather quickly in magnitudes. Mixing layer heights
appear to be a little lower than yesterdays solutions as per
close coordination with neighboring offices, we will issue a
wind advisory for the southern 2 3rds of the region. Combination
of downsloping, funneling potential down the mohawk, into the
higher terrain of the taconics, berks and NW ct should observed
wind gusts over 45 mph. Precipitation should taper off toward
noon as the low tracks well north of the region and deformation
weakens.

Then as the cold advection moves across the warm waters of the
great lakes (glerl analysis of lake ontario temperatures were
near 10c), lake effect snow showers should develop as delta t s
climb toward 20c. Per 3kmnam wind trajectories seems 280-290
degree trajectories set up but overall lake band structures and
organization may be delayed a bit as weak mid level short wave
ridge may suppress convective updrafts a bit. That changes
toward Sunday night, however. Temperatures will be falling
through the day as h850 temperatures fall back toward -6c to -8c
with -10c isotherm just upstream.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
Winds should subside below advisory levels Sunday evening but
still remain gusty. Another upstream short wave approaches
Sunday night as this will be best opportunity for lake effect
snow to develop and impact the region. Trajectories are expected
to remain around the 290 degrees which favors the western mohawk
valley and schoharie valley. Its possible overnight that some of
these bands may migrate into the capital district and favorable
upslope conditions of the taconics and berks. At this time,
seems accumulations up to 4 inches are possible for the western
portions of the region with around 1 inch or less expected
elsewhere. Additional adjustments are expected as we watch where
the bands of snow develop and remain persistent. The band(s) of
snow should lift northward toward Monday morning as the
aforementioned short wave lifts east and north of the region and
boundary layer flow backs a bit. So portions of herkimer and
hamilton county get some snow Monday morning then as inversion
heights lower, bands should weaken along with warming h850
temperatures toward Monday evening.

A period of warm advection begins to unfold Monday night where
additional cloud coverage is expected. Some upslope light
precipitation may occur into the dacks and southern greens
before much drier air arrives late at night.

As for temperatures, we will blend with the latest ensemble
superblend approach with lows mainly into the 20s and highs
mainly into the 30s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
A progressive, northern stream-dominant pattern with fast moving
disturbances looks to continue through much of the long term.

One such disturbance will track from north of the great lakes into
northern quebec Tuesday-Wednesday. Warm advection ahead of this
system should allow for a surge of relatively mild air and above
normal temps for Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s,
along with a gusty south southwest wind. A cold front associated
with this system should track across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, accompanied by scattered rain showers in valleys,
and rain changing to snow showers across higher terrain late Tuesday
night, with some possible brief lake effect enhanced snow showers
during Wednesday across portions of the southern adirondacks mohawk
valley. Mild temps initially Tue night should fall into the 30s by
daybreak wed, except for some 20s across the western adirondacks.

Cold advection kicks in Wednesday, although temps may briefly reach
the lower mid 40s in valley areas in the morning before falling in
the afternoon; with higher terrain areas in the 30s in the morning,
then possibly 20s by late afternoon.

A ridge of high pressure should bring fair and seasonably cool
conditions for thanksgiving, with highs mostly in the 30s. Then, the
next impulse approaches for Thursday night-fri am, although it looks
farther north then its predecessor, with weaker overall
forcing moisture. Perhaps some snow showers across the western
adirondacks. Lows Thursday night in the 20s in valleys, and teens
for higher terrain; highs Friday in the 30s to lower 40s.

Yet another northern stream system may approach from the great lakes
for Saturday, with perhaps some late day and nighttime rain showers
in valleys, and rain snow showers across higher terrain. Highs sat
in the 30s and 40s, with lows Sat nt mainly in the 30s. Could be
quite windy again late Saturday into Saturday night, depending on
the ultimate strength of the approaching system.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Strengthening low pressure will track across the eastern great
lakes into southern quebec overnight into Sunday. A cold front
associated with this system will cross the area Sunday morning.

Periods of light to moderate rain will overspread the region
this evening, and continue overnight. Moistening of the lower
levels of the atmosphere will allow CIGS to drop to MVFR with
occasional ifr overnight. Vsbys should also dip into the MVFR
ranges, although can not rule out lower vsbys at times, ESP at
kgfl and kpsf.

The cold front should cross the TAF sites between roughly 12z-
14z sun. A line of gusty rain showers may accompany or
immediately precede this front, and can not even rule out an
isolated thunderstorm. In the wake of the front, conditions
should improve toVFR, although can not rule out areas of MVFR
cigs at kpsf into the afternoon. A few passing rain snow showers
could occur at the TAF sites during Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be mainly south to southeast tonight at 5-10 kt,
although will be stronger at times at kalb, mainly 10-15 kt,
with occasional gusts up to 20-25 kt possible. Winds will shift
into the west, then northwest in the wake of the cold front
Sunday morning, with speeds increasing to 10-20 kt, and gusts of
30-40 kt, strongest and most persistent at kalb and kpsf.

Low level wind shear is likely overnight at kgfl kpsf and kpou,
as surface winds remain from the southeast to south at less than
8 kt, while winds around 2000 ft agl increase from the south to
35-40 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to
33.0 scattered shra... Shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 33.0
scattered shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Periods of wet weather will overspread the region tonight as a
warm front lifts northward across the region. A strong cold
front will sweep across the area Sunday morning, resulting in
windy conditions and falling temperatures. Precipitation will
become less widespread and begin to mix with snow over the
higher terrain. Lake effect snow will occur in favored regions
Sunday night into Monday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers
through next week.

A strong low pressure system will approach from the great lakes
region tonight. Widespread wet weather will occur throughout
the forecast area into tonight. A cold front will sweep through
Sunday morning with additional rain changing to snow over the
higher terrain. At this time, total QPF from this system looks
to range from a half inch to near an inch, with isolated higher
amounts over portions of the green mountains.

A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early
next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of lake ontario
affecting the western adirondacks and mohawk schoharie valleys.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Wind advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for nyz038>040-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082.

Ma... Wind advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for maz001-025.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm
short term... Bgm
long term... Kl
aviation... Frugis kl
fire weather... Bgm thompson
hydrology... Bgm thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi49 min 40°F 1001 hPa39°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi28 minS 97.00 miLight Rain42°F37°F85%999.1 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi24 minSSE 10 G 1610.00 miLight Rain41°F37°F87%998 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hr3W5CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSW36S5S8S13
G17
S11
G22
S14
G19
S14
G22
S13
G19
S12
G21
S13
G19
S9
1 day agoW14
G23
NW13
G20
NW15
G22
NW11
G19
W14
G21
NW18
G26
NW18
G32
NW14
G24
NW17
G22
W21
G35
NW15
G20
NW20
G25
NW21
G28
NW18
G28
NW17
G24
NW15
G20
W12
G21
W18
G26
NW14
G19
W19W14
G22
W10NW6NW9
2 days agoSE5S6S6S7S7SE7SE8S10
G16
S8S8S10S11S11S10S9S7NW5S4W7W16
G25
SW5SW5W14
G27
NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.62.73.54.24.23.62.82.11.30.3-0.30.31.634.155.44.94320.9-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:17 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:07 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.922.93.64.13.93.22.41.80.90-0.10.82.23.44.355.14.53.52.61.60.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.