Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:29PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 9:29 AM EST (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 4:38AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201358
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
858 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Snow will be ending this morning as a storm system
departs the region. An arctic frontal boundary will move through
the area on Wednesday, with some snow showers, squalls and gusty
winds. Behind the front, bitter cold temperatures will move in for
thanksgiving and Friday. Temperatures will slowly moderate over the
weekend with the potential for light rain and a wintry mix.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 858 am est... Upper level shortwave trough is located over
the eastern great lakes and heading eastward. At the surface, a
frontal boundary is stalled across new jersey and just south of
long island and southern new england. A weak wave of low
pressure is moving along this boundary and is heading northeast.

The wave should reach eastern new england by early this
afternoon before lifting towards nova scotia by this evening.

With the best forcing and moisture shifting away, steady
snowfall is starting to taper off, with the only widespread snow
still ongoing across southern vermont. Elsewhere, snow has
tapered to just snow showers and flurries. Any additional
accumulation looks to be just a coating for most spots, although
locally an inch or so is possible across the southern greens
over the next hour or two. Have ended the winter weather
advisory early for most of the area, but will keep it for
northeastern areas for a little longer. It should be able to be
cancelled there within the next few hours.

Behind this storm system, most areas should be quiet through the
rest of the day with some lingering clouds. There could be some
upslope or lake-enhanced snow showers by late today across the
western adirondacks as the upper level trough moves through the
area. A coating to an inch is possible in the old forge and
inlet areas for later this afternoon through early this
evening.

High temps today will generally be in the low to mid 30s for the
high terrain and the mid to upper 30s for valley areas.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
On the back side of this impulse tonight, lake effect
snow showers may be possible in the dacks, but other locations
should remain dry. Temperatures overnight will dip into the
teens and low 20s.

On Wednesday, the leading edge of strong, deep cold advection
(arctic front) tracks through our region. The strong low level
forcing and steep low level instability will likely support
development of a snow showers and squalls that will impact the
region during the afternoon and evening hours. Multiple high res
models indicate convective-type snow squalls across the region
during this time frame and will likely impact holiday travelers.

Expect quick bursts of snow with rapidly changing visibilities
and potentially slick roadways. Additional upper level forcing
will track across our northern zones early Wednesday morning.

This could lead to advisory-level snowfall in the southern
adirondacks prior to the snow squall development in the
afternoon and an advisory may be needed later today. Highs
Wednesday are expected in the mid to upper 30s but mid to upper
20s across northern areas. Temperatures drop sharply along and
behind the arctic front.

The sky will clear Wednesday evening as deep cold advection and
gusty northwest winds spread across the region. Lows will
plummet into the single digits Wednesday night with some lake
effect snow bands into the western mohawk valley and southern
adirondacks through early Thursday morning. Wind chill values
will range from 5 to 20 degrees below zero Wednesday night.

Gusty winds along with bitter cold temperatures will be in place
for the thanksgiving holiday, albeit plenty of sunshine. High
temperatures will struggle to get out of the single digits in
the dacks to teens in the valleys, with multiple records being
threatened. See the climate section below for thanksgiving
holiday temperature records.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
The extended forecast begins frigid for late november with a january
type arctic air mass over the region. The mean longwave trough will
impact the northeast through the holiday weekend, though there is a
moderation of temperatures by the weekend. An active pattern sets
up for the second half of the weekend into next week with a blocking
ridge downstream over the north atlantic, and a few coastal
disturbances potentially impacting the region.

Thanksgiving night into Friday night... Arctic high pressure settles
over the region thanksgiving night with diminishing winds and
bitterly cold temps. H850 temps will still be 2-3+ std devs below
normal based on the latest 00z gefs. The actual h850 temps will be
in the -17c to -20c range based on the 00z gfs. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions will set up with clear mostly clear skies and
calm winds. Lows will plummet to zero to 10 below over the southern
adirondacks, lake george region, portions of the mohawk valley and
southern vt with single digits from the capital region south and
east. The arctic sfc anticyclone will slowly shift south and east
of region, and off the southern new england coast by Friday evening.

The strong subsidence from the sfc ridge will yield mostly sunny and
dry conditions with highs still 15 to 20 degrees below normal with
mid and upper 20s in the valley areas, and upper teens to mid 20s
over the hills and mountains. Another cold night is expected fri
night, but low to mid level warm advection will begin as some high
clouds may stream in from the west to southwest after midnight. The
h500 ridge axis moves east of the forecast area by daybreak, as a
digging trough approaches from the midwest and southeast. Lows will
be in the teens with some single numbers over the adirondacks, and a
few lower 20s over the mid-hudson valley southern litchfield county.

Saturday-Saturday night... Warm advection begins ahead of the upper
trough, and wave of low pressure forming near southeast ga and
coastal nc in the morning. The 00z ECMWF holds the pcpn off most of
the day ahead of the warm front and coastal wave. The 00z GFS is a
little quicker with some pcpn getting in locations mainly west of
the hudson river valley. It could begin as a light mix, as removing
the shallow cold air may take time. It is way too early to pinpoint
exact mixed ptypes. The better threat for a light mix based on a
blend of the latest gfs ECMWF thermal profiles with a top down
method is Saturday night. We did get some sleet freezing rain for
southern vt especially east of the green mtns, and near the
foothills of the southern adirondacks. However, we have primarily a
rain snow transition to rain Saturday night. Temps should be rising
overnight, and we did use a non-diurnal trend. Highs rise into 30s
to lower 40s. The lower 40s will from the capital district south and
east. Pops were raised to likely values Saturday night, as
southeast LLJ will focus some atlantic moisture into the region head
of the coastal low and its associated warm front. The pcpn could be
moderate to heavy, as the h500 trough becomes negatively tilted
right over ny and new england. Placement of the coastal low varies
on the medium range guidance and ensembles. The placement of the
coastal low and thermal profiles will play a huge role on the ptypes
and amount of qpf. Lows Sat night will be in the upper 20 to mid 30s
or so.

Sunday into Monday... The coastal low and associated mid and upper
trough move downstream of the region with rain likely tapering to
scattered showers for the second half of the weekend. Temps trend
closer to normal values on Sunday with upper 30s to around 40f over
the higher terrain, and lower to mid 40s in the valleys. A brief
lull may occur Sunday night, but yet another complex storm system
will be moving out of the midwest ohio valley and the mid atlantic
states. This double barrel low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather back into the region with increasing chances of showers
especially Monday afternoon. Lows will be mainly in the 30s Sunday
night, and highs maybe similar to Monday. If these pcpn events
trend wet mainly a rain ptype and heavy in terms of qpf, then
hydro concerns may increase early in the week for portions of the
hydro service area.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure near eastern long island this morning, will then
move northeast of CAPE cod by the afternoon.

The low pressure system will continue to bring widespread
ifr lifr CIGS vsbys this morning. The light snow has been most
persistent at kalb psf kgfl with ifr lifr conditions. Kpou has
had limited pcpn with lifr ifr cigs.

Expect widespread ifr lifr conditions at all the TAF sites until
15z-19z. A burst of moderate snow is possible until 17z time
frame for kalb-kpsf north and east, as the wave starts to lift
northeast of long island. We kept visibilities at 3 4-1 1 2sm in
the snow. Kpou should see the pcpn end first around 17z with
low MVFR CIGS lingering. Expect a gradual transition to MVFR
cigs at kalb kgfl btwn 18z-21z. The snow snow showers will be
the most persistent for kpsf with lifr ifr CIGS between 17z-
21z Tue for some snow snow showers possibly mixing with some
rain in the mid afternoon.VFR conditions should return to kpou
after 21z tue.

Expect conditions to improve toVFR levels between 23z Tue to
02z Wed at kgfl kalb kpsf with scattered stratocumulus and sct-
bkn mid high clouds. TheVFR conditions should persist after
06z.

Light variable winds will become north to northeast this morning
at 3-6 kts, then back into the W NW this afternoon early
evening at 5-12 kts with a few gusts in the 15-20 kt range at
kalb kpsf. The winds will lighten after midnight from the W nw
at less than 7 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shsn.

Thanksgiving day: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Fire weather
A mix of rain and snow will continue through this morning as
low pressure tracks south of the region. Some lake effect snow
showers will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning across
the adirondacks. Then, chances for snow and snow squalls will be
possible on Wednesday as a strong arctic front crosses through
the region. This will bring a blast of extremely cold air for
thanksgiving day where high temperatures will struggle to get
out of the single digits and teens.

Hydrology
River flows will continue to lower into next week with colder
than normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light
precipitation events. No widespread hydro problems are
anticipated.

A disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow or a
rain-snow mix (in the mid-hudson valley and NW ct) through this
morning. QPF totals of a tenth of an inch to up to half of an
inch is expected, with the higher amounts south and east of the
greater capital district.

Scattered snow showers and squalls are expected along a cold
front Wednesday. Colder than normal temperatures persist into
the thanksgiving holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for albany for thanksgiving day is 19
degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 28th) 1901. The record
low minimum for thanksgiving for albany is 5 degrees (november 23rd)
1972.

Albany's record low MAX for november 22nd is 25 degrees set in 1880.

The low daily mean temperature is 18.5 degrees also set in 1880. The
record min temperature for november 22nd is 9 degrees set in 1969.

Daily records for albany are from 1874 to 2017.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz041-050-053-054-061-084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Nas jlv
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas jlv
hydrology... Nas jlv
climate... WFO aly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi59 min 34°F 1013 hPa34°F
TKPN6 46 mi59 min N 5.1 G 6 35°F 39°F34°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi38 minNNW 41.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1013.4 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi1.7 hrsN 01.00 miLight Snow34°F33°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN4W4CalmS5SW5S6S6S3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4NW3CalmCalmN4N4N3NW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3NE3N3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoS4SW4W6W12W7NW10NW12W6NW10W12W11W8W9W6NW11W11W12W10W9W10W6W8W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 02:22 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:48 PM EST     5.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.344.54.43.62.51.710.2-0.30.31.73.14.24.854.53.52.51.80.90.101

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Tue -- 02:05 AM EST     4.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:32 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:31 PM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.544.343.12.11.40.7-0-0.10.92.23.44.24.74.7432.21.50.60.10.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.