Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:13PM Monday March 25, 2019 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 252340
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
740 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Clear skies and dry conditions as high pressure will dominate
our weather pattern through the middle of this week. This will
allow for the late march Sun to assist with warmer temperatures
before another frontal boundary impacts the region for the later
half of the week with possible wet conditions.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 730 pm edt, a clear and cold night in on tap for eastern
new york and western new england with a very dry airmass in
place. Temperatures currently in the 30s and low 40s are
expected to drop into the teens with single digits in the dacks.

So only minor tweaks made to the hourly temps to reflect recent
obs as the remainder of the forecast remains on track.

Prev disc...

as of 130 pm edt... The last of the mid level cloud
coverage was just passing south of i84. Regional observations
show a west- northwest wind flow along with ample mixing to
allow for a significant drop in dewpoints across most of the
region (mainly lower single digits north of kpou). Have lowered
those values significantly with this update. Otherwise, balance
of the afternoon remains cool and breezy under plenty of late
march sunshine.

As high pressure from the northern plains and western great
lakes continues to extend its influence eastward, clear skies
will continue tonight along with decoupling winds. This should
allow for radiational cooling with single digits and teens
where snow cover remains to lower 20s for the hudson river
valley from the capital region and points southward.

Tuesday will be an extension of Monday weather but with wall to
wall sunshine as 1030mb surface high continues to advect
eastward with approach mid level ridge. Additional adjustments
to the dewpoints appear to be in order as we will lean toward
the NAM dewpoints as we mix up close to h800. High temperatures
range from the lower half of the 40s for hudson river valley
locations to mainly 30s elsewhere.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Big bubble no trouble for the region as 1030+mb surface ridge
glides across the region. Ample clear skies and light winds will
allow for the late march sunshine to warm the boundary layer
Wednesday to near 50f for valley locations. In addition, while
mixing layer heights will lower, still enough of a drying affect
for lowering those dewpoints during the daytime hours.

Overnight lows will still be chilly with mainly teens Tuesday
night and a little moderating Wednesday night as mainly 20s are
expected and close to the ensemble mos.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Complicated pattern coming up for the end of the work week into
the final days of march. This includes multiple chances for
precipitation (including possible snow, better chance for the
higher terrain) with temperatures seasonably mild to start but
trending colder as we welcome the first day of april. Read on
for details.

Mild weather will be in place for Thursday as southerly flow
becomes enhanced ahead of a slow moving cold front dropping
southeastward out of ontario. The surface front looks to out run
its main upper level trough which at 18z Thursday is still well
to its west in the northern great lakes. This disconnect means
the surface front likely becomes washed out as it continues
tracking southeastward into eastern ny western new england and
the latest global guidance continues to suggest that trend.

Heights gradually fall over northwestern areas through the day
Thursday with enhanced subsidence over eastern new england and
this pressure gradient should lead to enhanced southerly flow at
850hpa which should allow temperatures to warm into the 50s
through the region. Scattered showers slowly start arriving
into the adirondacks and western mohawk valley Thursday
afternoon and slowly track towards the capital district
overnight; however, with the front washing out with time,
showers should diminish in coverage. This is why we have chance
pops everywhere except the mid-hudson valley and NW ct where we
only have slight chance pops.

Given that the upper trough associated with our front looks to
track well to our northwest into quebec by Friday morning and a
large ridge of high pressure extends from the southeast u.S
into the mid- atlantic, zonal flow should ensue over the
northeast and our washed out cold front should stall over
either capital region (per the ECMWF and cmc-nh) or southern
new england (per the gfs) on Friday. Temperatures may not be
much different than Thursday since the front may not clear the
region but we should see more in the way of cloud coverage.

Further upstream in the great plains, it looks like a southern
stream shortwave moving into the midwest phases with a northern
stream trough digging southward into the northern great plains.

There remains uncertainty in the current guidance regarding
just when this phasing takes place which will have ramifications
for how things play out downstream for us in the northeast. The
ecmwf phases the two the earliest on Saturday while the GFS and
cmc-nh show it occurring 6-12 hours later. Once these two
pieces of energy phase, the associated surface low quickly
deepens and the stalled boundary over our region should lift
northward as its warm front on Saturday. Southerly flow in the
wake of the warm front strengthens and we should enter into the
system's warm sector allowing temperatures on Saturday to climb
well into the 60s. Some 70s are even possible in the mid-hudson
valley and NW ct where there should be more sunshine. Areas from
the capital district north and west could experience some
showers as the warm front lifts northward which is why we
continued to mentioned chance pops in these areas. The mid-
hudson valley and NW ct have the better chance to stay mainly
dry Saturday.

Our deepening surface cyclone looks to track up the saint
lawrence river valley Saturday night into Sunday as its parent
trough becoming negatively titled. This should result in a sharp
baroclinic zone across its cold front and thus potentially a
period of steady rain during the frontal passage. We still note
timing difference in the latest global guidance as to when this
sharp drop in temperature and period of precipitation impacts
eastern ny and western new england with the GFS and cmc-nh
showing it occurring Saturday night while the ECMWF is much
slower, delaying the frontal passage until potential Sunday
night as a secondary wave develops along it. Given this spread,
we continued to mention chance pops Saturday night into Sunday
night. With an impressive surge of cold air expected in the wake
of the cold front plus the trough becoming negatively titled,
temperatures should quickly fall behind the front and depending
on exact timing and available moisture, we could even see rain
mix with change to snow before precipitation completely exits.

Best chance of this occurring likely will be in the higher
elevations but still something to monitor in future updates.

Temperatures should turn colder heading into the first day of
april on Monday and with high pressure quickly moving in behind
it, windy conditions are also possible.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions with clear skies will prevail through the 24 hour taf
period ending 00z Wednesday, with a dry air mass in place and
high pressure in control.

Winds will be north-northwest around 10 kts or less through the
period. Occasional gusts will be possible Tuesday afternoon up
to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Low rh values this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon,
especially where little to snowpack remains.

Dry weather will continue through the middle of the week as high
pressure will dominate our weather pattern. Minimum rh values
into the teens and 20s percentiles with overnight recovery
between 50 and 80 percent tonight and again Tuesday night.

Hydrology
No issues are expected at this time with dry conditions through
the mid-week period. The diurnal temperature cycle will result
in melting of the snowpack adding some water content and small
rises to streams and rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm jpv jlv
short term... Bgm
long term... Speciale
aviation... Jpv jlv
fire weather... Iaa bgm
hydrology... Iaa bgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi78 min Calm 40°F 1018 hPa7°F
TKPN6 46 mi36 min 37°F 1019.8 hPa7°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi57 minW 910.00 miA Few Clouds36°F3°F26%1019.5 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi2 hrsW 10 G 1815.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F6°F28%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmW9W10NE7N11NE7N9N8NW6N8N5
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Mon -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.70.90.20.31.53.14.45.35.85.64.63.52.51.60.60.20.82.13.44.24.84.84.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.40.60.20.82.23.64.65.35.65.24.132.11.20.40.41.32.63.64.34.64.43.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.