Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:40 PM EST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231758
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1258 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
As milder air moves into the region, a storm system will
allow for a wintry mix today, which will change to rain across the
entire area by later this evening. Steady rain is expected on
Thursday, which will change back to snow across some areas before
ending late in the day. Colder weather will return for Friday into
the weekend, with some lake effect snow showers possible.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1258 pm est... Temperatures remain below freezing across
most of the forecast area. Radar shows scattered showers across
the area which are a mix of light freezing rain or light ice
pellets based on ASOS reports. Kpou reporting 34f last hour but
most locations still below freezing. Winds are starting to
increase and gust from the south to southwest.

With the strong warm advection, a warm nose around 800-900 hpa
will increase in temperature through the day for the entire
area. This should allow any zr sleet to changeover to rain or
freezing rain (depending on surface temps) by later this
afternoon into this evening. This evening, freezing rain will
primarily be a threat for the mohawk valley, adirondacks and
saratoga region. But even further south, there may be some
pockets of freezing rain, especially considering that ground
temps have been very cold lately, so some icing may be occurring
even when air temps are just above freezing.

Total ice accretion looks to be a thin glaze for most spots,
although parts of the southern adirondacks could locally see up
to two tenths of an inch.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Additional periods of rain are expected for tonight as temps
continue to warm through the 30s and into the 40s. Freezing rain
should even changeover to plain rain in the adirondacks by
midnight as well. Precip will start to increase in intensity and
coverage by the late night hours, as the storm's cold front
starts to approach the area.

The cold front will cross the area during the morning hours, but
the boundary will slow down as it crosses the area, as a a wave
of low pressure starts to develop along the front. The boundary
will start to take on anafront characteristics, with precip
lingering behind the boundary. Some cams suggest that a narrow
cold frontal rain band could develop just ahead of the front, so
a brief period of heavier rain and even some thunder cannot be
ruled out during the morning hours. See the hydro section for
how we expect this precip to impact areas waterways.

As colder air works into the region, this could allow for a
changeover to snow before precip ends, especially for western
and high terrain areas. Up to a few inches of snow will be
possible for the adirondacks where the changeover may occur as
early as Thursday morning, but most other places will see under
an inch of snow. Once the front crosses, temps should quickly
fall back through the 30s during the afternoon and precip will
taper off by late in the day from west to east. Any wet
surfaces may start to freeze back up, some some black ice could
form for Thursday evening as well.

Colder weather is expected for rest of the short term period.

Lows will be in the teens and 20s for Thursday night and temps
generally look to stay below freezing for Friday. Lows will
mainly be in the single digits for Friday night. An upper level
disturbance will allow for some passing light snow showers and
flurries on Friday, with a band of lake effect snow developing
off lake ontario for late Friday into Friday night. While most
areas won't see much snow at all, a light to possible moderate
accumulation is possible across the western adirondacks.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
For the weekend into early next week, the flow pattern looks to be
dominated by broad troughing east of the rockies. Saturday into
Sunday night, an anomalously deep closed 500 mb low with heights
below 500 dam will dip southeastward across ontario before pivoting
back northeastward into southern quebec. A surface low is expected
to form ahead of this low, tracking northeastward north of the st.

Lawrence valley. Modest warm advection isentropic lift is expected
to develop ahead of this system, bringing a chance of light snow to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. The system's sharp cold front
is forecast to track through the local area Sunday night, possibly
accompanied by snow showers or perhaps some squalls. Snow will be
preferentially located over the higher terrain during this period,
but some light snow showers are possible in the valleys as well,
especially if the closed upper low dips further south than model
consensus currently indicates. Temperatures Saturday will start out
quite chilly, but should moderate somewhat by Sunday with the warm
advection.

Considerable uncertainty early next week with potential for a
surface low to move from the plains up the ohio valley as a
shortwave pivots through the broader longwave trough. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance indicates decent probabilities of precip
during this timeframe, but uncertainty with respect to timing
precludes anything higher than chance pops at this time. Changeable
temps can be expected depending on the track of this potential
system, but at this point indications are that they will average
near normal.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Freezing rain is forecast this afternoon at kalb and kpsf, and
this afternoon into this evening at kgfl as surfaces temps are
below freezing given the recent cold snap. Any freezing rain
should be fairly light, but could result in a glaze of ice on
surfaces.

Any freezing rain will gradually transition to plain rain during the
late afternoon into the evening hours, with kgfl likely holding onto
frozen precipitation longest. Rain will eventually become steadier
after 00z, with flight category falling to lower MVFR to possibly
ifr levels. Ifr CIGS and vsby will become more common after 06z as
dewpoints rise above 40f over the frozen snow covered ground. Some
lifr conditions cannot be ruled out.

Winds will gradually increase into this morning out of the south at
7 to 15 kt with some gusts to around 20 kt possible at kalb kpsf.

Low-level wind shear conditions can be expected at kpou and kpsf through
tonight as a strong low-level jet moves into the area.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Hydrology
Flash flood watch in effect for litchfield county for Thursday
milder air will start making its way into the region for today
into tonight. Temperatures will rise above freezing by this
afternoon or this evening across the entire area and remain
above freezing through most of Thursday. This will allow for
some snow melt, especially in southern valley areas.

In addition, a storm system will be bring a wintry mix changing
to rain for today into tomorrow. About one to two inches of
liquid equivalent is expected. This rainfall, along with the
melting snow, will allow for some rises on rivers and streams.

Across much of the area, the rainfall will be absorbed by the
snowpack. However, southeastern areas (where snowpack is more
limited) may see more of the precip be turned to runoff. With a
frozen ground in place, some minor flooding is possible,
including along the housatonic river.

With river rises and ice movement on some rivers, ice jams can
not be ruled out. However the limited amounts of total runoff
should prevent this from being a major concern and this will be
more of an isolated issue. There is already one ice jam in place
along the upper hudson near riparius, so localized flooding can
be expected across that area over at least the next few days.

Behind this storm system, colder weather will return to the
region for Thursday night into the weekend. Any additional
precip will be in the form of snow and fairly light.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz032-
038>040-047>054-058>061-063-084.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for nyz033-
041>043-082-083.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for maz001-
025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Snd frugis
near term... Snd frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi70 min SE 2.9 31°F 1022 hPa18°F
TKPN6 46 mi46 min S 14 G 16 31°F 1022.1 hPa22°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi49 minS 1610.00 miLight Freezing Rain31°F16°F54%1019.3 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi1.9 hrsS 710.00 miOvercast28°F15°F59%1020 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmS10S12
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1 day agoNW21
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NW16NW7NW11NW10NW8N5N5NW7NW6CalmE3Calm
2 days agoN7W16
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 12:49 AM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM EST     4.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:59 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM EST     5.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.70.11.63.14.14.64.63.82.61.60.80-0.40.21.83.54.85.55.753.72.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Wed -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:12 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.40.72.23.34.14.54.33.32.11.20.5-0.2-0.20.92.53.94.95.45.44.53.11.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.