Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 4:23PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:16 PM EST (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Gale center will move off through the maritimes today. High pressure builds over the waters tonight, then drifts to the maritimes Thursday. Another storm system approaches through the midwest, impacting the waters late Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 141757
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1257 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Winter-like temperatures today along with blustery northwest
winds today providing cold wind chills. High pressure builds in
from the midwest, maintaining the cold air as it moves over new
england tonight and early Thursday. The high moves into the
maritimes during Thursday, leaving cold air over our region. A
coastal storm develops over the southern states and moves up the
east coast Thursday. This will spread a wintry mix of snow,
sleet and rain late Thursday into Friday. A weak system may
bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday.

Near term until 5 pm this afternoon
1 pm update...

no major changes from previous forecast. Ineffective sunshine
this afternoon as blustery NW winds up to 45 mph at times
combines with below normal temps in the 30s yielding wind
chills in the teens and 20s! Winds diminish with sunset.

Previous discussion below.

==============================================================
winter-like cold across the region at mid morning with
temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s, mid 30s along
the immediate coast. However blustery NW winds 20-30 mph with
gusts to near 45 mph at times is yielding wind chills in the
teens and 20s. Also not expecting much of temp recovery this
afternoon given CAA continuing with 850 mb temps lowering from
-12c this morning to -14c to 16c later today.

Will continue marginal wind advisory for northern ma as gusts
should continue to flirt with g40kt 46 mph given good mixing
with blyr depth up to 850 mb or so.

Earlier snow squall streamers from lake ontario have been
weakening with time as day time heating disturbs band
circulation. Thus other than a brief flurry expecting a dry day.

Short term 5 pm this afternoon through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

high pressure moves overhead. Expect mainly clear skies and
diminishing wind under the high, leading to good radiational
cooling. Dew points upstream are roughly 5-15, and radiational
cooling tends to undercut forecast guidance. We took the
standard guidance and subtracted about 5f to determine min
temps.

Thursday...

high pressure starts the day over the region and then lifts
over the maritimes. The high shows a distinct cold air damming
pattern extending southwest, and this lingers over our area
through the evening. Expect cold low level air to hold with us
through the day, with high temps in the upper 20s and 30s.

Closed upper low swings up the ohio valley, eventually turning
the upper flow southerly along the east coast states. This will
transport increasing moisture into our area, with a supporting
125 kt jet generating increasing lift along the coast and into
southern new england by late in the day.

Most of the day should be dry as the moisture runs into the
departing high pressure. Toward evening, guidance brings the
lift far enough north to suggest developing precip over our
area. With the deep cold air in place, we expect an initial
period of snow or snow and sleet starting around sunset in most
places, but probably rain along the south coast and islands.

This mixed precip will need to be monitored for a potential
headline.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* low pressure passes close to the region late Thu into fri,
with a wintry mix possible especially across the interior
* weak low pressure may bring scattered rain snow showers late
sun into mon
details...

Thursday night and Friday...

cutoff h5 low will move NE across the tn valley through fri,
with surface low redeveloping off the southeast coast, then
pushes NE toward new england Thu night into fri. With the high
slowly exiting northern new england to the maritimes, have a
strong cold air damming signature lingering across the interior
thu night. This, along with an increasing easterly wind flow,
will help bring a strong influx of moisture toward the region.

Will see precip begin as mainly light snow across most of the
region by Thursday evening, except as rain across CAPE cod and
the islands. Big question will be how quickly the cold air will
scour out of the interior. With the cold air trapped across the
interior, and the milder air working in over the top of the cold
dome, could see a prolonged period of mixed snow sleet freezing
rain. Noting the slr values steadily decrease from s-n
overnight as temps ever so slowly rise around or after midnight
thu night, but the cold air may keep the sleet freezing rain mix
for a good portion of the night and into Fri morning.

Qpf amounts may run from 0.9 inches well inland to around 1.5
inches across ri SE mass. As for ice accretion, could see some
significant icing especially across the higher inland terrain
and portions of the ct valley, as mixed precip could linger into
fri morning. As the low exits CAPE cod by around midday Friday,
then colder air will start to work back S as winds shift to
w-nw. So, could see a change back to snow mainly over the higher
terrain before ending during Fri afternoon.

Will be monitoring the progress of this storm closely for the
potential of winter headlines that may be issued later today.

Strong easterly low level jet passes across S coastal areas thu
night, with the strongest gusts after midnight through about
mid morning Friday. E-se winds may gust up to 35-40 kt, highest
across the islands Friday morning. Wind headlines will likely be
needed for a time there.

Friday night through Tuesday...

the low exits to the gulf of maine by Fri evening, then high
pressure passes across the mid atlc states this weekend. With a
nearly zonal mid level steering flow across the northeast, may
see another fast moving cold front pass Sat night or sun
morning. With the westerly flow, not much moisture with this
feature, mainly a wind shift expected. However, may see some
moisture work E out of the mid ms valley later Sunday into
Monday. Not a strong system involved with this, but enough of a
boundary to bring scattered rain and or snow showers. Could see
some light snow accumulations mainly across the interior sun
night into early mon.

Another surge of rather cold air is forecast to push into the
region around Tue as high pressure works across from southern
ontario. Readings may run 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

18z update...

tonight...

vfr and dry weather with gusty NW winds diminishing with sunset.

Thursday...

vfr to start but MVFR 21z-00z across ct-ri and south coast of ma
as snow overspreads this region. Snowfall hourly rates may
approach 1 inch per hour toward 00z from bdl-pvd and points
southward.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Snow arrives Thu 21z-
00z with hourly snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour
possible toward 00z and thereafter until 03z before changing to
sleet and freezing rain.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Ra, pl, fzra, sn.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Ra, fzra.

Friday night through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Marine
Gale force gusts will continue across most of the forecast
waters today, diminishing later in the afternoon. Winds will
diminish to light tonight, then slowly increase on the southern
waters Thursday afternoon.

A small craft advisory continues for narragansett bay today,
with gale warnings elsewhere. Seas at 5 to 9 feet today will
subside tonight and Thursday. Seas off block island may build to
5 feet again by Thursday evening.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain.

Friday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Rough seas up to 15 ft. Rain.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
Record low temps for nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for maz002>008-010-
012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz230-232>234-
256.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz231-250-251-
254-255.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz236.

Gale warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Nocera
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Wtb evt
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi72 min WNW 33 G 39 34°F 50°F4 ft1024.9 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi76 min WNW 26 G 28 31°F 1024.5 hPa (+0.9)7°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi28 min 37°F 1027.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi26 min WNW 21 G 35 35°F 51°F5 ft1026.1 hPa (+1.8)14°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi91 min W 11 34°F 11°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi72 min NW 23 G 31 31°F 49°F5 ft1025.3 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi28 min NNW 19 G 31 28°F 48°F1026.9 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi76 min WNW 11 29°F 4°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi26 min WNW 25 G 33 35°F 8 ft1026 hPa (+2.0)13°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi23 minWNW 12 G 2510.00 miFair33°F1°F26%1026.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi22 minWNW 22 G 3210.00 miFair and Breezy34°F1°F24%1028.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi22 minNW 17 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F3°F26%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W9NW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4S4S4S4S3CalmSE4S7S7SE10
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E8N4N11NW12
2 days agoW8W6NW5W4W5W6W5W4W5W4W3W3SW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW7W9SW65SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
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Wed -- 03:48 AM EST     7.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM EST     1.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:51 PM EST     8.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:45 PM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.74.66.37.47.67.26.14.73.22.21.82.13.356.77.98.27.86.75.23.521.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:46 AM EST     -0.72 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 09:07 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 PM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:28 PM EST     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:11 PM EST     -0.88 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 09:30 PM EST     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.30.6-0.2-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-00.60.91.11.30.90-0.6-1-1-0.9-0.9-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.