Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poestenkill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:43PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:13 PM EDT (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poestenkill, NY
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location: 42.69, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201432
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1032 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
Scattered to numerous showers will continue this morning
before diminishing in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
be mild over most areas. Mild and drier weather is expected Sunday,
with rainfall chances increasing again for Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Flood and flash flood watches remain in effect, except for the
schoharie valley, helderbergs, and capital district.

As of 1025 am, batch of moderate rain continues move northward
across the area this morning. Have updated forecast to better
reflect on-going activity. Rainfall rates are generally a
quarter to a third of an inch. Isolated flash flooding cannot be
ruled out if training echoes occur.

Nearly stationary boundary meanders from the surface low over
ohio across central and northern new york. The boundary is well
noted across our local area with the nysmesonet at schuylerville
with 47 degrees with a north wind and schaghticoke at 65
degrees with a southeast wind. This boundary isn't expected to
press farther southward; it's expected to shift back northward
as surface low shifts eastward today.

The upper low will gradually drift over the central
appalachians today while the attendant surface low will move
from west virginia to western ny as it weakens. Forcing for
ascent weakens over much of the area, and drier midlevel air
will edge its way in. There is some uncertainty as to where the
edge of the midlevel air sets up. It appears the deeper moisture
will be slower to exit the western new england counties, so
periods of rain will continue to be likely, heavy at times,
especially in the morning hours. Elsewhere, any rainfall will
tend to be spotty and light, but a bit more persistent in the
morning over the higher terrain. There exists a low end
potential for some surface based convection to develop this
afternoon, especially if breaks in the clouds can occur.

Midlevel lapse rates steepen with the drier midlevel air
arriving, and some weak forcing for ascent associated with lower
heights approaching. There may be a mesoscale convergent
boundary pseudo warm front associated with channeled flow up the
mohawk valley, perhaps reinforced by the cold surge if it can
make it that far south. Cams aren't too wild about convective
potential however. SBCAPE appears to be limited to 750 j kg or
less, and even achieving those modest values may be contingent
upon breaks in the clouds developing. Will include isolated
thunder over the schoharie and mohawk valleys where SPC has
outlined a marginal risk for severe weather. Most likely
timeframe for isolated thunderstorms would be 15-21z.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
The closed low will gradually drift eastward Saturday night into
Sunday night, emerging offshore of the mid atlantic by Monday
morning and then moving northeastward. The low will remain
vertically stacked until at least Monday and far enough to our
south for forcing for ascent to be weak. At the same time, lower
dewpoints will arrive Saturday night into Sunday. This all
points to a mainly dry and continued mild period through at
least Monday morning, although with a fair amount of cloud
cover around. Some isolated nuisance light showers cannot be
ruled out at times.

By Monday, guidance differs with respect to the progression of
the closed low as it emerges offshore and moves northeastward.

The ECMWF is the most robust and closest to the shore with this
low, such that a period of rain in the deformation region of the
attendant surface low can be expected. The GFS nam are a bit
drier. Will retain chance pops for the area, except likely over
western new england. It will continue to be mild.

Long term Monday through Friday
Unsettled conditions look continue through much of the extended
forecast, as the initial closed low moves east of the region early
Tuesday, followed by an active but progressive, more zonal flow,
with frequent shortwaves tracking eastward across the northern u.S.

Initial timing of these features suggests best chances for showers
should be late Tuesday into early Wednesday, then again on Friday,
although timing will be better refined as the individual systems
become better sampled and modeled.

Due to a relatively high frequency of clouds and showers for late
april, temps will likely remain below seasonal levels, with highs
mainly in the 60s, although may only reach the 50s should widespread
showers occur Wednesday, and again Friday. Overnight lows should
fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Areas of MVFR CIGS through this morning, with ifr lifr CIGS at kgfl
which will remain just northeast of a nearly stationary frontal
boundary. An area of moderate to heavy rain showers currently across
nyc nj will lift N NE this morning, producing a period of moderate
to heavy rain between roughly 13z-18z Sat (from S to n). Ifr vsbys
will be possible within the heavier rain elements. Also, can not
rule out an embedded thunderstorm, especially at kpou kpsf and kalb
as this area of rain lifts northward.

For this afternoon, CIGS should improve to mainly MVFR, with some
vfr possible. Last place for improvement will be kgfl. Vsbys should
trend toVFR this afternoon.

For tonight, mainlyVFR conditions are expected, although if winds
diminish, some MVFR CIGS vsbys could develop.

At kalb kpsf and kpou, south to southeast winds will average 8-15 kt
with some gusts of 20-30 kt possible today. At kgfl, winds will be
mainly northeast to east this morning at 5-10 kt, shifting into the
southeast to south later this afternoon at similar speeds.

Tonight, winds will be mainly from the south at 5-10 kt.

Low level wind shear will persist at kgfl through midday, as surface
winds remain from the northeast to east at 5-10 kt, while winds
around 2000 ft agl remain from the south at 30-35 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Mild and moist weather continues today with showers, especially
this morning. It will continue to be mild but drier on Sunday
with lighter winds. Rh values will fall to the 50 to 60 percent
range. Another chance at widespread rainfall arrives for Monday,
but there is still considerable uncertainty.

Hydrology
Rainfall overnight was most widespread across the mohawk valley
and southern adirondacks, with half an inch up to two inches
observed. Rivers continue to rise due to runoff from rainfall
and snowmelt, and a few points are forecast to reach minor to
moderate flood stage. While the heaviest rain there has ended,
additional heavy rain is possible this morning over the eastern
catskills, mid hudson valley, taconics, and western new england
where flood and flash flood watches remain in effect. While no
flooding is forecast on area rivers at the moment in these
locations, poor drainage and small stream flooding is possible
and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. The coverage of this
rainfall should diminish by the afternoon and evening.

Tonight into Sunday will be much drier with just some isolated
light showers around, but some rivers in the southern
adirondacks and upper hudson basins will continue to rise with
flooding continuing and additional flooding possible at some
river points.

Another system has the potential to bring widespread rainfall on
Monday, but there is still considerable uncertainty. At this
time, it appears amounts will be lighter than this most recent
event, with heaviest amounts over western new england.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for ctz001-013.

Ny... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for nyz054-
058>061-063>066.

Flood watch through Sunday morning for nyz032-033-038>043-
082>084.

Ma... Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for maz001-025.

Vt... Flood watch through Sunday morning for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Iaa thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA13 mi21 minE 910.00 miOvercast65°F62°F90%1008.6 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT16 mi19 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain64°F60°F87%1008.1 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA19 mi19 minS 10 G 289.00 miLight Rain66°F59°F78%1006.5 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi22 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6
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--SE8CalmE4E9
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2 days agoW665W7--4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3E3Calm4E6E8NE8E11
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 12:44 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:15 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.10.82.43.95.15.965.242.91.80.7-0.10.21.534.14.95.34.83.82.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 12:35 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.101.12.74.15.25.95.95.13.92.81.70.5-0.20.31.73.24.355.24.73.62.61.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.