Thursday, July19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Poestenkill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 12:11AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poestenkill, NY
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location: 42.69, -73.41     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 191721
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
121 pm edt Thu jul 19 2018

Fair and dry weather will remain across the region
through the remainder of this week and into the start of the weekend.

Unsettled weather conditions are expected to return over the second
half of the weekend, as waves of low pressure along and ahead of a
frontal system slowly approaching from the south and west. Humidity
levels will be on the increase heading into early next week.

Near term through Friday
Updated at 1 pm... No real changes to the forecast. Latest
observaations indicate that the forecast is on track with
temperatures climbing to near or just above 80 in the valleys
with 70s over higher terrain and very comfortable relative
humidity levels. Previous discussion is below.

As of 1025 am edt... A gorgeous low humidity mid july day across
eastern ny and western new england with high pressure building
in over ny and new england. This update removed the morning fog,
and adjusted the temp trends. Current MAX temps look good with
limited mixing but a strong mid july Sun angle. Highs will be
near normal. The 12z kaly sounding is very dry with the pwat
down to 0.53" and a strong subsidence inversion just above 850
hpa to 800 hpa. A few cumulus will be possible over the higher
terrain or along the western spine of the mtns. Otherwise
mostly sunny to sunny conditions. Highs will be mainly in the
mid 70s to lower 80s with a few mid 80s in the mid hudson
valley capital region.

Tonight into Friday... .

The ridge both at the surface and aloft continue to increase
which will support clear skies at night. Dewpoints will slowly
increase tonight into Friday and southerly winds increase in
the wake of the departing surface high off the northeast
coastline. Base on upstream temperatures and a slow increase in
those h850 temperatures from 10c to 15c, afternoon highs will
generally range from the 80s into valley locations and 70s
elsewhere on Friday.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
Friday night those aforementioned southerly winds will continue
to advect in low level moisture with dewpoints approaching upper
50s to near 60f. This will begin our pattern change toward a
warmer and moist regime as we watch for a potential wave
developing from convection across the southeast CONUS through
Saturday. At this time, per the NCEP model suite and
international guidance, we will hold back pops wx for areas
south of i90 until later in the afternoon. This is in response
to low level ageostrophic flow shifting toward the east where
the surface and mid level ridge axis remains in place for drier
conditions. Either way, clouds will increase Saturday from south
to north as this will have an impact to forecast highs as we
will place cooler values south and remain rather mild along and
north of i90.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
There remains increasing consensus that an upper low will develop in
the oh valley and great lakes while upper energy and moisture in the
se u.S. Rotates around the eastern periphery of the cyclonic upper
flow into the northeastern u.S. This upper energy looks to be timed
for Saturday night and Sunday with moisture and a boundary layer
wind maximum tracking north from offshore the mid atlantic into new
england and eastern ny. The upper energy, subtropical moisture and
low level wind energy should support showers or a steady rain
Saturday night into Sunday. There could be some locally heavy rain
but with the dry conditions in many places this summer, it should be
a beneficial rain in most cases. Flood potential will have to be
watched though as we get closer based on the increasing tropical
moisture over our region through the beginning and middle of next
week. There remains uncertainty regarding the exact manner in how
this energy tracks northward along or off the coast which will
influence rain amounts, as a track further east could greatly limit
areal coverage and intensity of rainfall across the region during
this time.

Once the upper energy and low level forcing exit later Sunday, there
is a general consensus that the upper low in the oh valley slowly
weakens, retrogrades west and south while very strong upper ridging
in the north atlantic builds west toward our region. As upper
heights rise over our region and weak southerly upper flow sets up,
a south north oriented zone of deep tropical moisture is expected to
be relatively stationary near or over our region, leftover from the
upper low and anchored on the western periphery of the developing
upper ridging off the northeast coast. So, with tropical moisture
in place, numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
are possible each day, Monday through Wednesday, with slightly
decreasing coverage possible each night. It should be noted that low
level southerly wind and pwat anomalies depicted by the 00z 19 gefs
are +2 sd to at times +3 sd through much of the period in our
region, with best anomalies wobbling west and east at times.

Highs Sunday in the 70s to around 80. Highs Monday through
Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s but upper 70s to around 80 higher
terrain. Lows Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday night in the
humid and uncomfortable upper 60s to lower 70s but mid 60s higher
terrain. High temperatures could be warmer Monday through Wednesday
if there are breaks in the clouds each morning and early afternoon
before the storms increase in coverage through the afternoon,
especially by Wednesday as the boundary layer flow may veer into the
southwest and downslope in some areas.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure in control of the weather through Friday.

After any patchy fog lifts, expectVFR conditions through this
evening. Tonight, some patchy ground fog may develop once again
at kgfl and kpsf, mainly between 07z-10z fri. MVFR ifr
conditions will be possible during this time.

Otherwise, few clouds, if any through Friday.

Near calm winds will become variable in direction at 4-7 kt
later this morning through this afternoon, with local
topographical effects affecting the wind direction. These
effects should favor west northwest winds at kalb and kpsf, nw
to N at kpou, and SE at kgfl. Winds should become nearly calm
shortly after sunset.

Equipment note... At kpsf electrical work is ongoing on the
field. Power has been cut to asos. Therefore TAF is issued as
amd not sked.


Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Sunday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Monday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Monday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Fair and dry weather will persist through the remainder of this
week and the start of the weekend. Unsettled conditions may
return over the second half of the weekend as a frontal system
slowly approaches from the west.

Rh will fall to 30-40 percent this afternoon and recover to
80-100 percent late tonight, with areas of dew formation

Winds will be from the north to northwest at 10 mph or less today,
then become light variable tonight. Winds will be mainly from
the southerly direction at 5-10 mph Friday.

Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday.

A slow moving frontal system approaching from the west, along
with a several waves of low pressure tracking northward within
a very moist airmass in place, could lead to frequent showers
and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours for Sunday
through at least the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm wasula
near term... Bgm wasula
short term... Mse bgm
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl nas
fire weather... Kl bgm
hydrology... Kl bgm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 54 mi70 min 75°F 1019 hPa54°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA13 mi48 minVar 310.00 miFair74°F50°F43%1019.7 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT16 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair74°F48°F41%1019.8 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi49 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds77°F46°F35%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
Last 24hr6W7--433NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalm3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmW3W8
2 days ago--CalmS3SW6SW7CalmNW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 05:49 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:50 AM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:35 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.