Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Angola on the Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:59PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1053 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers late this morning...then scattered showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041 Expires:201706262115;;852388 FZUS51 KBUF 261453 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1053 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angola on the Lake, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.69, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 270243
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1043 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonably cool temperatures with showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Tuesday. The upper level disturbances
responsible for the cool and unsettled weather will move east
Wednesday with a return to warmer temperatures by mid-week.

Near term through Tuesday
While much of the convection from earlier this evening has weakened
or dissipated... The environment is still very unstable. The 00z kbuf
sounding depicted over 1400 j kg of cape... And amounts will be in
excess of 2000 j kg over lake erie where the water temp is >70 deg.

That being said... Storms are trying to re fire on an outflow
boundary that pushed through the buf metro around 8 pm. This
boundary extends southwest to lake erie and could serve to spark the
lake induced convection that has been advertised for several days.

This convection could become rather strong with areas of heavy rain
likely. Fortunately... The expected band of lake effect rain should
move from south to north during the overnight so that one area
should not pick up excessive rainfall amounts. Lapse rates to cloud
base will exceed 10 deg c km and with no cap... We can expect plenty
of thunder and lightning as convective cloud depths will be greater
than 20k ft. Initially... A 240-250 flow will be in place. This will
direct lake effect rain showers parts of chautauqua county and
especially the southern half of erie county.

During the course of the night... The lake effect activity should
consolidate into a more organized plume that will push north across
the northern half of erie county... Including the buf metro area. The
rain will likely be heavy at times and should be accompanied by some
thunder and lightning. Given the very efficient nature of lake
induced pcpn (esp rain)... Rainfall rates in excess of an inch an
hour will be possible. Localized flooding will not be out of the
question.

Off lake ontario... The airmass will not be quite as unstable and
will have less fetch to work with... So the lake effect rain showers
are not expected to be as organized nor as heavy. Will keep chc pops
in place for much of the eastern lake ontario region... Especially
north of the tug hill.

Outside of these lake effect areas... It will be partly to mostly
cloudy and generally rainfree after 9 pm. Temperatures tonight will
bottom out between the low-mid 50s on the lake plains to the mid and
upper 40s across the southern tier and for sites est of the tug
hill.

On Tuesday... The lake effect rain will weaken and dissipate as the
strong late june heating will break apart the lake driven
convection. Nevertheless... Scattered showers and thunderstorms can
be expected as the core of the lake huron shortwave will pass
directly across our region. H85 temps in the vcnty of 4c will once
again establish very steep low level lapse rates... So any subtle
boundaries will be able to focus convection that could support
torrential downpours and small hail. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
will only make it into the 60s.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Following the upper shortwave, lingering showers will dissipate
off lake erie Tuesday night while those off lake ontario will
persist through the night, albeit weakening towards daybreak.

It will be another cool night with lows generally dropping into
the low 50s and interior valleys down into the upper 40s.

Wednesday will begin to transition to a bit of a warmer pattern as
high pressure moves across the ohio valley and a west to
southwest flow develops across the region. Expect fair weather
across much of the region with the exception of the north
country where the lingering cyclonic flow aloft will keep more
clouds and the risk of showers through midday. Temperatures,
while somewhat milder reaching into the low 70s will still be
below normal.

On Thursday the first in a series of surface waves will bring the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms and the threat of locally
heavy rain. Temperatures continue their slow upward trend with highs
Thursday in the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
A series of systems will affect the region from Thursday night
through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday. As is often the case
during the summer, rainy periods are not expected to last too long
and there will be several-hour periods of dry weather, but not long
enough to keep any particular day complete dry any part of wny.

Thus expect at least a chance of showers for each 12 hour
period through Sunday.

Thursday night... The first of a series of systems should move
through on Thursday and drop a frontal system across the region
during or by Thursday night. Thus have a likely chance of showers
and possible thunderstorms in the forecast.

Friday... The frontal system should continue into pa with weak
ridging aloft. This should mean a lower threat for showers overall,
but still non-zero. The lowest threat should near N of lake ontario
while areas toward the pa border will have a higher threat for
measurable rain.

Friday night and Saturday... The next system will move into the great
lakes region and will drag the frontal band back north (warm front)
across the region. This will be followed by another frontal system
later on Saturday (cold front).

Saturday night and Sunday... Finally the last shortwave associated
with the long wave trough over the east will bottom out over the
great lakes region. Expect a continued threat for showers, with
some lake shadows east of the lakes for Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday... This period should be dry with weak high
pressure moving overhead. This isn't a guarantee this far out,
but if the timing of the current pattern holds, the natural
progression should be subsidence behind the Sunday system, with
the exception of isolated summer convection on lake breeze
convergent regions by Monday afternoon.

Daily temperatures won't stray too far off normals for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows mostly in the
60s. Humidity levels will vary, with some nights possibly
warranting a c while in the warm sector, but at this time don't see
any extreme sultry days or nights for late into the week weekend.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
WhileVFR conditions are anticipated across western and north
central new york tonight... There will be some issues to contend
with. Fairly significant lake effect rain will develop east of
lake erie after 05z. It is likely that moderate to heavy rain
within the increasingly well structured band could produce MVFR
conditions at kbuf between 09z and 12z.

On Tuesday... The lake driven convection will fall apart during the
initial daylight hours. The attention will then turn to more
scattered showers and thunderstorms as the core of a mid level
disturbance will pass over the region. Again... While short lived
MVFR conditons will be possible with any of the storms...VFR
conditons will prevail.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Small craft advisories have been dropped for the buf harbor upper
niagara river and for the western portion of lake ontario from the
mouth of the iag river to hamlin beach as winds and waves have
dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

The only other change to the marine package has been to add the
potential for waterspouts with any showers on lake erie tonight and
Tuesday morning. A convective cloud depth in excess of 20k ft with a
lake delta t of 18c will be quite conducive for waterspout
development. In fact... When examining the szilagyi waterspout
nomogram... It places this event square in the center of the most
favorable parameters.

The main concern for tonight will be the residual convection over
lake ontario to the east of irondequoit bay... And particularly the
convection will undoubtably fire up on lake erie as a result of lake
effect processes. On going convection at 01z over the ohio
nearshore waters of lake erie should track up the lake and may be
the match stick to 'light' the convection on this end of the lake.

The 00z kbuf sounding already depicted 1400 j kg of cape... So when
you add +70 deg f lake water to that environment... You will easily
generate +2000 j kg of CAPE with lapse rates exceeding 10 deg c km
in the lowest 5 k ft.

On Tuesday... A persistent southwest graident will once again support
gusty winds as high as 30 knots on lake erie. A long lived small
craft advisory will still be in place for this body of water... And
it is possible that the buf harbor and upper iag river will once
again have to be added.

Lighter winds will promote sub-advisory wave action on the lakes
from Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds and waves will again
increase Thursday ahead of the next frontal system pushing toward
the eastern great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Tuesday night for
lez040-041.

Synopsis... Ar
near term... Rsh
short term... Levan
long term... Zaff
aviation... Rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 0 mi44 min 60°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.8)
45142 - Port Colborne 13 mi104 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 66°F4 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 16 mi44 min W 5.1 G 5.1 61°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.4)47°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 21 mi44 min S 4.1 G 6 61°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.1)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi44 min 59°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.5)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 40 mi44 min S 7 G 8.9 57°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.7)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 46 mi104 min SW 12 G 14 60°F 60°F1 ft1013.6 hPa (-0.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 48 mi44 min S 5.1 G 7 55°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
W8
G11
W15
W16
W11
G16
W10
NW8
W10
W12
G15
W10
W14
W13
SW11
G16
SW12
G15
SW9
G13
SW14
G19
SW15
G22
SW15
G22
SW21
G27
SW20
SW19
G24
SW17
G24
SW17
G24
NW11
G15
W5
1 day
ago
W14
G20
W5
S11
G16
SW13
G18
SW13
G17
W17
W14
W15
W11
W15
W16
SW16
SW15
SW13
G18
SW10
G16
SW14
G19
SW18
G22
W24
SW16
SW20
W20
W22
W16
W12
2 days
ago
SW9
SW8
G13
NW4
NW8
G11
NW8
NW5
W9
W8
W7
W7
SW8
SW10
G15
SW15
SW18
SW14
G20
SW14
G20
SW17
G22
SW20
SW22
G27
W21
W21
G28
SW15
SW9
G14
SW11
G15

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY18 mi51 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F48°F72%1015 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY24 mi50 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds58°F45°F62%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrW95SW7S5S7SW4S7S7SW7W5SE5W8SW15
G21
SW11
G20
SW16
G22
W11
G23
W17
G28
W13
G24
SW17
G24
SW14
G21
SW11
G17
SW9S6Calm
1 day agoSW5S6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW8SW13
G19
W9
G19
W12
G22
SW10
G22
W15
G22
W16
G29
W14
G27
W18
G27
W15
G28
SW12
G26
W10
G19
SW10
G18
W11SW5
2 days agoW7W8W8W6W7W5SW5SW5SW7SW11
G19
W10
G18
SW13
G20
W16
G23
SW15
G23
W14
G24
W14
G21
SW18
G24
W17
G25
SW12
G19
W9
G20
S4S5SW4S6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.