Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Angola on the Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:22PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1016 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
This afternoon..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201710222130;;239690 FZUS51 KBUF 221416 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1016 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-222130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angola on the Lake, NY
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location: 42.69, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222036
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
436 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday afternoon. A cold
front will then slowly cross the area Monday night and produce
periods of rain. A few scattered showers and lake effect rain
showers will then continue through much of the week as temperatures
turn progressively cooler.

Near term through Monday
Satellite imagery showing an area of high thin cirrus crossing the
area from west to east this afternoon. The cirrus will remain thin
enough to still allow nearly full sunshine through the end of the
day. Temperatures will be a solid 20 degrees above average, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s at lower elevations.

Strong high pressure will remain anchored off the new england coast
tonight. Subsidence and dry air will continue to support fair
weather overnight with a few more patches of high cirrus level
clouds crossing the area. Model point soundings show low level
moisture increasing across central pa overnight, and some of this
may move northward into the higher terrain of the western southern
tier late tonight and Monday morning. Increasing southerly flow and
mixing will keep temperatures very mild overnight, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains and low to mid 50s across
the interior southern tier and lewis county.

On Monday high pressure will drift farther east off the eastern
seaboard. Subsidence and dry air will continue to hold moisture
ahead of the next system at bay for the majority of the day, with
mid level clouds increasing from west to east. A strong mid level
trough will dig into the western great lakes through the course of
the day. Dpva from the first shortwave will begin to reach western
ny by the end of the day along with deeper moisture. This may allow
a few showers to develop at the far western end of the state by late
afternoon. Temperatures will be well above normal again, with highs
in the low to mid 70s on the lake plains aided by ssw downslope
flow, while higher terrain remains in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Monday night through Thursday night
Time to 'pay the piper'. After a prolonged stretch of absolutely
gorgeous weather... We can expect a significant shift in the
overlying weather pattern across the country. This change will not
include a polarity shift in temperature anomalies over the nation
but will also include a much more dynamic and progressive
pattern... One that will involve three distinct cold shots. We will
only deal with the first of these colder intrusions in this short
term period.

A phasing of a split flow will take place as we open this period
late Monday and Monday night... As a robust shortwave within the
northern branch will dive south across the plains. This will carve
out a full latitude longwave trough that will capture a southern
stream storm system already found over the upper ohio valley. As the
mature southern stream system ejects to the north Monday night... It
will push a surface occlusion across our forecast area. Strong
frontogentic forcing associated with this boundary will be
accompanied by some lift under the right rear entrance region of a
110kt h25 jet over southern ontario... Providing plenty of forcing
within an airmass that will include pwat values in the3 vcnty of 1.5
inches. This will produce a 3-5 hour swath of fairly steady rain...

some of which could be heavy at times... Especially if there is any
embedded convection. The precipitation will be found within a deep
southerly flow... One that will allow for some training while also
retarding the eastward progression of the main swath of rain. This
will encourage a soaking rainfall across the southern tier... But the
resulting downsloping will eat away at rainfall amounts across the
lake plains. As the occlusion pushes east during the course of the
night... A distinct dry slot will start to work across the region.

This will bring an end to the widespread rain over the far western
counties while the steady pcpn will be in the process of working
across the north country.

The other potential issue for Monday night will be the risk for some
strong gusty winds. A 50-60 kt low level jet will precede the sfc
occlusion and likely will precede the steadier rain. A portion of
these strong winds could be mixed to the sfc... With the greatest
risk area being found along the lake erie shoreline where
downsloping could come into play. Am not particularly impressed with
the strength of the forecast inversion and direction of the flow at
inversion level to do anything more than to continue the mention of
strong gusts in the hwo product.

On Tuesday... All of the forcing associated with the initial storm
system will exit across the st lawrence valley while a wealth of mid
level dry air will spread across the entirety of our forecast area.

This will bring an end to the remaining steady rain that will be
found over eastern sections and should limit any possible lake
effect rain that tries to get going north northeast of lake erie.

H85 temps will drop to around 4c over lake erie by the end of the
day... So this should be just short of establishing any real response
off lake erie. The cold advection will lead to a cooler day
though... As MAX temps will range from the upper 50s over parts of
the southern tier to the upper 60s across the north country.

Interestingly enough... These readings will still be above normal
late october values.

As a strong h25 jet digs into an already deep longwave trough over
the lower mississippi valley Tuesday night... A narrow shortwave
ridge will push across our forecast area. While this will keep the
bulk of our region precipitation... Continued cold advection within a
south to southwest flow could direct some nuisance lake effect rain
showers over parts of the niagara frontier. Will continue to use low
chc pops for that area.

As the aforementioned jet rounds the base of the longwave trough on
Wednesday... It will become negatively tilted while making its way
across the ohio valley and parts of the lower great lakes.

Negligible height falls with the trough and a lack of any strong jet
dynamics will limit the potential for showers... Although continued
lake effect showers should still be in the place east-northeast of
lake erie.

On Thursday... The axis of the negatively tilted trough will push
away from our region via the st lawrence valley. While the -2c air
at h85 will keep some very minor lake effect rain showers in place
east of both lakes... Rising heights and increased subsidence will
support fair dry weather elsewhere.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The longwave trough over the center of the country will 'reload'
Friday as the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive
southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the
longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour
southwards into the lower 48.

The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front
that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the upper great
lakes. This front will make its way across the lower great lakes on
Saturday... Then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it
will become parallel to the mean h025-70 flow. Following a nice day
of weather on Friday... This scenario will favor scattered showers
for both days of the weekend.

Looking further ahead towards the following week... A third shot of
cold air will charge southwards... And this one will have the best
chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our
forecast area.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
An area of high thin cirrus level clouds will cross the area from
west to east through this afternoon, with a few more areas of thin
cirrus tonight. Model guidance continues to show an increase in low
level moisture across central pa overnight, and some of this may
move into the higher terrain of the western southern tier late
tonight and Monday morning. This may bring some ifr CIGS to the
higher terrain, but this should remain east of kjhw if it
materializes.

On MondayVFR will continue to prevail in most areas with mid level
clouds increasing from west to east during the afternoon ahead of
the next system. Some MVFR CIGS may linger across the higher terrain
of the interior southern tier, western finger lakes, and eventually
the tug hill.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with occasional rain.

Wednesday and Thursday... Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
Light to modest southeasterlies this evening will veer to southerly
and increase to moderately brisk levels tonight and Monday out in
advance of an approaching cold front... Though given the offshore
direction and stable temperature profiles... Conditions across the
new york waters of both lakes should remain below advisory levels.

Monday night and Tuesday the cold front will cross the region from
west to east... With periods of potentially advisory-worthy conditions
possible at the east ends of both lakes erie and ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 0 mi46 min 66°F 1020.7 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 13 mi94 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 65°F1020.9 hPa (-1.7)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 16 mi46 min ESE 1 G 1.9 74°F 1020.4 hPa44°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 21 mi34 min S 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 1020.9 hPa (-1.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi46 min 73°F 1021.4 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 40 mi34 min Calm G 5.1 68°F 1020.7 hPa (-1.0)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 46 mi94 min S 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 62°F1020.3 hPa (-1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 48 mi34 min ENE 5.1 G 6 63°F 1021.3 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY18 mi41 minS 610.00 miFair71°F52°F51%1020.9 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY24 mi40 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F50°F42%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmCalmS10S8S9S16
G21
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SW7SW10SE5S5S5S7S7S11S8S12S12S9S9S6S6
1 day agoS3S3S3S6SW7SW7S11S13S6S7S6S3CalmCalmS7S9S10S8S7S6S7SE5CalmS5
2 days agoSW8SW8SW5CalmS3S4SW3SW4SW4SW4S4S5S4SW3SW3SW4SW43W8W5NW5W64Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.