Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:11 AM CDT (08:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Am Cdt Thu Jun 21 2018
Early this morning..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing northeast late in the afternoon. Rain showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201806212100;;869501 FZUS53 KMKX 210806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 210439
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1139 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Update
Latest hrrr meso model continues the trend to push the showers
farther northeast tonight, reaching the milwaukee area by mid
morning Thursday. Initially the heavier rain has weakened. However
expect a renewed threat of moderate to heavy rainfall Thursday.

Have increased the amount of rain forecast. May need a flood
watch for the illinois border area once all of the new model runs
come in. Precipitable water values are high, but the northeast
flow has brought drier low level air in.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Drier low level air has eliminated most of the MVFR ceilings.

More rain will move in from the southwest tonight into Thursday.

This will bring MVFR ceilings back in. Along with ifr over south
areas. The best chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder
will be south of a line from the wisconsin dells to milwaukee,
though some rain is possible to the north.

Prev discussion (issued 943 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018)
update...

latest hrrr meso model continues the trend to push the showers
farther northeast tonight, reaching the milwaukee area by mid
morning Thursday. Initially the heavier rain has weakened. However
expect a renewed threat of moderate to heavy rainfall Thursday.

May need a flood watch for the illinois border area once more of
the new model runs come in. Precipitable water values are high,
but the northeast flow has brought drier low level air in.

Marine...

persistent northeast east winds will cause waves to gradually
increase. Could see waves approach 4 feet Thursday night into
Friday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 611 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018)
update...

latest hrrr meso model continues the trend to push the showers
farther northeast tonight, reaching the milwaukee area by mid
morning Thursday.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

drier low level air has cleared most of the stratus over the
northeast and far east. This drying should eventually slow as
rain will move in from the southwest tonight into Thursday with
the mid level low pushing into iowa. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will move into areas southwest of madison this
evening. Then the best chance for showers and a few rumbles of
thunder later tonight and Thursday morning will be south of a line
from the wisconsin dells to milwaukee. Some rain is possible to
the northeast as the day wears on. The lower ceilings will be
toward the southwest, as the low level drier air toward the
northeast will probably keep cloud bases higher.

Prev discussion... (issued 255 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018)
short term...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is high:
models have come into better agreement with low pressure to the
southwest tonight and Thursday. The trend has been farther north
with the low and resultant forcing moisture. The main impact is
much higher rain chances, especially south of a line from the
wisconsin dells to milwaukee. There is expected to be a fairly
sharp cutoff with the higher rainfall totals toward the northeast
due to a drier low level airmass pushing in from the northeast.

Another substantial change from the previous forecast is
temperatures, which are now expected to be a little milder tonight
and several degrees cooler Thursday with widespread cloud cover
and rain likely.

Showers should move into areas southwest of madison mid to late
evening, with the activity lifting northeast into early tonight.

Showers will then persist through Thursday, especially in the
aforementioned higher chance areas. Left a slight chance for
thunder going in these higher precip areas due to some lingering
instability. The instability drops off quickly toward the
northeast.

Long term...

Thursday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low will devolve into an open-wave trough while
lifting from the lower missouri valley into the eastern great lakes.

Its surface reflection will be low pressure and an associated
frontal zone which will remain to our south east during the
period. While the better instability associated with the low
pressure system remains to our south, we'll be have enough deep
layer moisture for persistent cloudiness, rain showers isolated
thunder, and cool north northeasterly flow. Current model
solutions suggest that a low-level effective boundary theta-e
gradient will be located across far southern wisconsin on Thursday
evening. This will serve to locally enhance lift with a period of
showers and a few storms possible during this time. Rain chances
should then decrease overnight as the boundary becomes more
diffuse with time. Rain chances may then increase for eastern
portions of our area on Friday afternoon into early Saturday
morning as the low pressure system lifts north through michigan.

However model variability increases on Saturday, with guidance
slightly favoring a low track that's farther away to our east.

This would result in mostly dry conditions on Saturday should
this track prevail. However below seasonal temperatures are still
anticipated given the cool easterly flow.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Look for slight chances for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday as
weak low pressure passes by to the south. Thereafter, surface high
pressure briefly builds into the great lakes region on Monday. An
easterly wind component will persist, meaning cooler temperatures
are expected the closer one gets to lake michigan.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A shortwave trough will lose amplitude while progressing from the
central great plains into the upper great lakes. Surface low
pressure will accompany the wave, likely bringing warmer temps along
with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

lower ceilings will continue to improve this afternoon into
evening as drier low level air works into the area from the
northeast. After the showers exit the east this afternoon,
mainly dry weather is then expected into early evening.

More rain will move in from the southwest tonight into Thursday.

The best chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be
south of a line from the wisconsin dells to milwaukee, though some
rain is possible to the north. The lower ceilings will be toward
the southwest, as the low level drier air toward the northeast
will probably keep cloud bases higher.

Marine...

could see waves approach 4 feet Thursday night into Friday
morning, particularly from milwaukee southward. Otherwise, winds
and waves will stay on the low side into the weekend.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Hentz
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Hentz
Thursday night through Wednesday... Spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi72 min N 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi32 min NNE 9.9 G 9.9 60°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 24 mi22 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 59°F
45013 28 mi65 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 57°F 56°F1 ft1011 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 41 mi82 min NE 9.7 G 9.7 63°F 63°F1 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.2)61°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi32 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi19 minNE 310.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1010.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi19 minENE 710.00 miA Few Clouds61°F55°F84%1009.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi20 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F57°F93%1010.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi17 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F57°F87%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE9NE6N6N6N4NE6NE8NE8NE8NE84NE7NE8NE6NE7N5N3NE3NE3NE5NE6NE5NE3
1 day agoN7N8N7N8N10N5NE6N10N11N10N10NE8N13
G17
N8N9N10N9N12N10N7N6N5N7N8
2 days agoW7SW9SW7SW10SW9W12
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5W3CalmN11
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N8N9N8N10N10N11N12NE14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.