Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:19PM Friday May 26, 2017 12:30 AM CDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 9:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 916 Pm Cdt Thu May 25 2017
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201705261030;;211129 FZUS53 KMKX 260216 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 916 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-261030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260400
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1100 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017

Aviation(06z tafs) Upstream showers associated with mid-level
short wave continue to decrease as they push into western wi. A
few may hang on and affect southern wi after midnight. Patchy fog
beginning to develop in eastern areas where temperatures have
cooled to the dewpoint. Increasing mid-level clouds should prevent
dense fog from becoming widespread overnight.

Prev discussion (issued 925 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017)
update... Combination of 700h warm air advection and approaching
mid-level short wave producing band of showers over eastern mn
south into northeast il. WAA weakens as it progresses eastward
into wi during the night but short wave moves across central and
southern wi. A few sprinkles already knocking on the door of nw
cwa. Will expand small pops across north and more of the west
during the late night but keep southeast dry. Also introduced some
patchy fog to eastern areas as temperatures have already fallen in
some spots to the dewpoint, and winds to remain light through the
night.

Marine... Winds continue to diminish as weak high pressure ridge
affects near shore waters. An isolated light shower may affect
northern zones late tonight. Some radiation fog may develop over
the land areas during the night, but is not expected to affect
near shore waters.

Prev discussion... (issued 655 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017)
aviation(00z tafs)... Few light showers may affect parts of south
central wi later tonight as mid-level warm air advection spreads
into wi from the plains. Otherwise better chance for showers and
isold thunder later Friday. Still alot of questions regarding
where strength and location of passing short wave later Friday but
both GFS and NAM focus on southern cwa. For now wl use vcsh
remark in tafs in the aftn but may be bumping up in later aviation
forecasts.

Introduced some fog to eastern areas later tonight as skies
expected to be mostly clear through late tonight as temps fall off
rapidly to near or slightly below cross over temperature. Boundary
layer winds drop off to less than 6 knots. Possible fog may become
locally dense in parts of eastern CWA after midnight.

Prev discussion... (issued 342 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017)
short term...

tonight and Friday - confidence... Medium
surface ridge axis starts to shift to the east of the area
overnight. Expecting the lingering CU to die off diurnally. Prefer
the drier look of the NAM and GFS overnight. Next rain chance
arrives Friday with increasing WAA and a mid level shortwave.

Models are all over the place on QPF placement so the superblend
pops aren't too bad. Notched temps down just a smidge with the
clouds and increasing rain chance spreading in. Latest bufkit
soundings continue to show some CAPE rooted around 750 millibars
so will have some thunder mentioned.

Long term...

Friday night and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Any lingering showers and storms will be out of southern wi by
late Friday evening.

Winds will begin light Saturday morning with high pressure
overhead. This will allow for a mid morning lake breeze, but
there could also be a northerly component to those winds which
would usher cooler air down into southeast wi by the afternoon in
the wake of that departing weak low. Limited high temperatures to
the mid 60s, but this could end up being lower, as there is still
some uncertainty between the models.

High pressure, warm advection, but limited sunshine will allow
temps to rise into the mid 70s well inland on Saturday. The chance
for showers will return to southern wi Saturday evening as weak
low pressure tracks through il. There could be a few rumbles of
thunder with this chance of rain, but nothing severe.

Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Sunday is our best chance to see a soaking rain with 0.10 to 0.25
inch of precip. Timing is still uncertain, but it does not look
like an all day rain.

We will still have some instability over southern wi Sunday
morning out ahead of a weak cold front, so there is another chance
for showers. The cold front will slide through Sunday afternoon
and there could be enough convergence and instability to allow
for a few thunderstorms. Again, nothing severe. Sunday is our best
chance to see a soaking rain with 0.10 to 0.25 inch of precip.

Timing is still uncertain, but it does not look like an all day
rain.

Memorial day through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another upper low will roll across the great lakes area early next
week. Scattered instability showers are possible throughout the
period and can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

influence of the departing low starting to wane with drier air
taking hold. CU field has become MVFRVFR scattered to broken.

Nice inland push of lake modified noted vsbl satellite. Quiet and
vfr tonight into Friday morning. Pretty decent WAA signal evolves
with 500 millibar shortwave approaching Friday late morning
through the afternoon so have some increase in pops this period to
account for some shra isold tsra development. Seeing a few
hundred j kg elevated CAPE so some thunder possible. MVFR CIGS may
move into the western CWA during the afternoon.

Marine...

small craft advisory expired at 3 pm. Some lingering onshore
component though overall trends in wave heights and gusts suggest
the expiration looks good.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Aviation... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi31 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 56°F 1008.5 hPa (+1.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi51 min W 4.1 G 4.1 57°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 24 mi51 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 54°F
45013 28 mi52 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 52°F 1008.7 hPa
45174 40 mi31 min 3.9 G 5.8 52°F 51°F2 ft50°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 41 mi41 min N 9.7 G 9.7 48°F 45°F2 ft1007.7 hPa (+2.1)47°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi51 min Calm G 2.9 55°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE6
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair52°F48°F89%1008.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi38 minW 310.00 miFair50°F48°F96%1008.5 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair54°F51°F90%1008.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi36 minN 07.00 miFair51°F51°F100%1008 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13
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N9N10N10N8N8N7N5Calm
1 day agoN6N6N6N6N6N6N9N10N12
G20
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2 days agoSW8SW6SW7SW6SW7S5SW95W5SW5SW10SW6SE9S12SE11S10S11S9S6SW3E3NE6N7N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.