Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:33 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening - .
Through early evening - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Waves nearly calm. Tonight - North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Rain showers in the evening, then chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 1 foot. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - West wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 182009 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 309 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain today into this evening.

- Cooler pattern through the weekend may result in frost concerns Saturday night, especially in the Wisconsin River Valley.

- Dry pattern through this weekend, but a chance for rain Monday evening through Tuesday morning.



SHORT TERM
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

Southern WI will be sandwiched between two surface lows this evening bring additional shower chances. As the southern low currently located over MO to lifts across central IL/IN through this evening, expect some of the rainfall activity to pick up along the WI/IL border with totals nearing a quarter of an inch, but could see a pocket or two of locally higher. However, rainfall elsewhere looks to remain light with amounts around a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch.

The southern low is progged to push east later tonight and drier air moves into the region and rain chances diminish later this evening. However, thinking the cloud cover may linger a bit longer, but should gradually clear by daybreak Friday. Given the clearing may see temps dip into the mid to upper 30s and result in some patchy frost, but given the narrow wind between the clouds clearing and temps dropping along with winds looking to remain high enough, not confident on seeing widespread frost development.

Northwesterly winds begin to pick up overnight into Friday as the pressure gradient remains tight over southern WI as the northern, stronger surface low meanders over central Ontario while high pressure builds across the Plains. This will result in breezy to gust northwesterly winds through Friday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph.

Otherwise, Friday should remain mostly dry with the building surface high to the west. However cannot rule out a few light showers across our central WI counties on the backside of the northern low paired with the lingering upper-level trough, but potential remains low (<15%). Friday should remain fairly clear and sunny and despite the CAA/northwesterly winds, expecting to see temps rise into the lower 50s by the afternoon. Winds will gradually ease, but still remain breezy as the Ontario low slides further east and influence from thew high spreads further east into the start of the weekend.

Wagner

LONG TERM
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure and zonal upper-level flow will persist through much of the weekend. This will keep temps relatively cooler with daily highs around or just below normal and overnight temps in the 30s. Could see nightly frost potential Saturday and Sunday nights given the near freezing temps and light winds. High pressure will begin to slide further south-southeast ahead of an upper-level trough early next week. Meanwhile southerly flow will increase and looking to have a brief warm up toward the start of next week. Then a more active pattern is expected for Tuesday as long range models bring a surface low across the region along with increased rain chances.

Wagner

AVIATION
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Lower ceilings and visibility have begun to spread into the region this afternoon as off and on showers diminish in coverage. however, another round of showers is progged to spread in from the southwest through the afternoon and early evening bring widespread MVFR ceilings and lower visibility with this round of showers. The heavier rainfall is still progged for areas around the WI/IL and may see visibilities drop below 2 sm at times. However as the low pushes east later this evening, expect a drier airmass to move into the region as rain chances to diminish from west to east between 02z- 05z, but lower ceilings may linger a few hours longer. Otherwise, expect light variable winds to turn more northwesterly through the night before increasing during the day Friday with gusts to 30kt.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Lake Michigan will be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure. Expect lighter winds to continue through the evening as the southern low pressure centered over MO this afternoon lifts across central IL/IN. Meanwhile the northern low across Ontario is progged to meander into the Hudson Bay region and deepen through Friday. Expect a stronger pressure gradient develop over the region for Friday with high pressure building across the Plains resulting in 25-30 knot northwesterly winds for Friday. High pressure is expected to gradually work its way south-southeast through the weekend with lighter winds over Lake Michigan. Then southerly winds return by the start of next week ahead of a developing low over the Plains.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

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