Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:10PM Friday March 24, 2017 3:04 AM CDT (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 3:29PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 250 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Saturday night...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots. Slight chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain through the day. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..East wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog through the night. Rain through around midnight. Rain likely after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201703241615;;991670 FZUS53 KMKX 240750 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 250 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-241615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240513 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1213 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Update
Aviation(06z tafs)
There will be a general lull in the precipitation overnight into
most of Friday. Ceilings should rise well intoVFR category, with
visibilities above 6 miles during this period. Could even see
some clearing in the far southern counties at times as well.

Gusty south to southeast winds should gradually weaken and become
southwest into Friday morning. Northeast winds should then
develop and become gusty Friday night into Saturday night, as low
pressure passes by to the south.

Rain showers will gradually move into the area late Friday
afternoon and over all of the area Friday night, lingering at
times into the weekend. Look for low ceilings and reducing
visibilities Friday night with the rain showers. Some fog may
develop at times over the weekend.

Prev discussion (issued 736 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017)
update...

area of elevated convection moving east through the area, being
driven by strong/focused 850 mb to 700 mb warm air advection and
low level jet nose. Not a lot of elevated cape, but enough with
the strong upward vertical motion and effective layer shear to
produce hail. We had a few 1 inch diameter hail reports in iowa
and lafayette counties with the initial storms, with several
reports of small hail since then across the madison area and
points south.

Expect these storms to continue east across the rest of the area
this evening, exiting the east by 10 pm or 11 pm, as the focused
warm air advection and low level jet pivot across the area. The
strongest storms could still bring isolated hail to 1 inch in
diameter, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall.

There should be a lull in precipitation later on this evening and
overnight/Friday, as the area gets into the warm sector and the
best upward vertical motion focuses north and west of the area. We
should get into rain again later Friday into Friday evening, as
low pressure moves to the south of the area.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move east through
the area this evening, exiting the eastern areas between 10 pm and
11 pm. Look for isolated hail to 1 inch in diameter, along with
cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to around 30 knots. Visibility values may drop to 1 to 2 miles as
well, with ceilings around 2000 feet.

There should be a lull in the precipitation later tonight into
most of Friday. Ceilings should rise to above 3000 feet, with
visibilities above 6 miles during this period. Could even see some
clearing in the far southern counties at times as well.

Gusty south to southeast winds this evening should weaken somewhat
and become more light and variable later tonight into Friday
morning. Northeast winds should then develop and become gusty
later Friday into Saturday night, as low pressure passes by to the
south.

Marine...

extending the small craft advisory for areas south of north point
lighthouse until 1 am Friday morning, matching the one for the
north half of the nearshore waters. Gusty south to southeast winds
are lingering, with gusts to around 30 knots at times. Elevated
waves above 4 feet should subside by 1 am Friday morning. These
winds should weaken later tonight into Friday.

Another small craft advisory will be needed for later Friday into
at least Saturday night, as low pressure passes by to the south.

Gusty northeast winds are expected during this period, with high
waves developing with the onshore fetch.

Prev discussion... (issued 325 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017)
tonight and Friday - forecast confidence... Medium.

A complex situation is playing out across the northern plains. A
weak warm front is pushing northeast through iowa and illinois while
a secondary boundary stretching from north central ia into NE kansas
also pushes to the ne. Near the intersection of these two
boundaries, a small cluster of thunderstorms have developed and have
been pushing across northern iowa though the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
large dry slot has developed between the two frontal features.

High res guidance has a very poor handle on all of these features,
but given current trends and set up of the atmosphere, am expecting
the cluster of thunderstorms to gradually weaken before making it
to our western cwa. Shortly after those showers and storms arrive,
the warm front will push through the area. We can expect at least a
slight chance of precip as these features move through the area.

Guidance is in good agreement that the warm front will stall out in
central wisconsin, but there is quite a bit of noise regarding how
much moisture will remain in place to the south of the front. Most
guidance keeps much of the moisture in the vicinity of the front, so
am expecting broken to occasionally scattered clouds in the southern
half of the cwa.

The warm front will stay to the north of the CWA though the night
before it begins to slowly creep southward tomorrow. As it moves
south, am expecting cloud coverage and precip chances to increase
into the afternoon. Mu CAPE looks limited through at least the early
afternoon, so chose to leave thunder out until after 21z. Before the
front moves into our area, we can expect broken to scattered clouds
in our south along with moderately strong southerly winds. This will
result in very warm temperatures in the southern half of the cwa,
perhaps breaching 70 in some locations.

Friday night through Sunday - forecast confidence... Medium to
high.

More widespread precipitation threat expected Friday night into
Saturday morning as approaching low pressure system still
undergoing minor strengthening. Impressive layer q-vector
convergence of 20 to 30 units brushes southern wi Fri night along
with layer frontogenetical forcing for a time. Short term guidance
trending slightly south with axis of heavier precipitation
during this period. Will continue highest pops Friday night
into Saturday morning, then trend slowly downward. However
occasional light rain or drizzle will likely continue into
Sunday as low pressure weakens and gets nudged eastward later in
the weekend as weak convergence and low level deformation lingers
across the area along with plentiful low level moisture. Fog threat
will increase as boundary layer winds weaken Saturday night into
Sunday. Will continue to mention thunder threat as well Friday
night when strongest synoptic scale forcing is expected along with
nearness of southward moving boundary.

Extended period...

Sunday night through Thursday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Unsettled weather looks to continue through early next week.

Secondary weakening short wave over central plains trending
toward more northerly track and may bring more light rain back
to southern wi on Monday and Monday night. Cool ene surface wind
flow to continue so cooler by the lake for much of the period. More
amplified 500h pattern sets up for several days as upstream long
wave trof moves across the western conus, and resulting large scale
ridging builds across the great lakes and upper midwest. Around mid-
week, upstream trof wl get nudged eastward into the central conus,
eventually returning rain chances to the great lakes Thu into
Friday. ECMWF and canadian more bullish in spreading rain back into
srn wi on Thursday, while GFS holds off for 24 hours. Wpc blend
has more confidence in faster solution so wl spread chance pops back
in for Thursday. Warmer low level thermal structure favors rain
for the expected precipitation events during the period.

Aviation (21z TAF update)
warm front continues to approach the area from the southwest.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along
the front, along with some MVFR to occasionally ifr cigs. As the
front passes through the region in the late afternoon and evening,
most guidance has the CIGS improving and the precipitation
dissipating. However, models do not currently have a good handle on
the complex unfolding situation, so uncertainty in the forecast is
high. It seems like a good bet the MVFR CIGS will reach at least to
msn as the front passes later this afternoon, and perhaps farther
east toward evening. Meanwhile, llws remains likely though the
overnight hours.

Marine...

winds should begin to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient
gradually weakens. Accordingly, SCA expiration looks to be on
schedule. After a brief period of weaker winds overnight and into
tomorrow morning, offshore winds will ramp back up in the early
afternoon, especially in the south. Another SCA may be needed for
this time.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt early this morning for
lmz643>646.

Update... Wood
tonight/Saturday and aviation/marine... Bsh
Saturday night through Friday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi65 min SSW 13 G 20 49°F 1013.2 hPa (-3.1)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi85 min SSW 18 G 22 46°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 24 mi45 min W 7 G 8 46°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi65 min E 2.9 G 7 39°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SE8
G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi72 minSSW 910.00 miFair44°F34°F68%1013.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi72 minSSW 1410.00 miFair47°F35°F63%1013.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi73 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F34°F66%1013.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi70 minSSW 1710.00 miFair47°F36°F66%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S10S8S9
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5SE11S13
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1 day agoNE16
G23
N14NE11N9NE13
G17
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NE10NE10NE7NE8NE9E6E8E9E5NE7NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE8
2 days agoW5W4W7NW7NW7NW9
G15
NW11N15NE14NE15NE11
G20
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G21
NE13NE11NE13NE13NE15
G23
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N18
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N14
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N15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.