Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:35 AM EST (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:53PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamstown CDP, MA
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location: 42.71, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221143
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
643 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
After a very cold start to the day, mostly sunny and dry
weather is expected today, with temperatures not as frigid for this
afternoon. Clouds will increase tonight, with temperatures
generally holding fairly steady. A light wintry mix changing to
rain is expected for tomorrow into tomorrow night with much milder
temperatures, with the precipitation perhaps changing back to snow
before ending on Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 643 am est... 1040 hpa high pressure area is located over
western and central pa and continues to slowly slide eastward.

Ir satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the area.

There are a few lake effect clouds reaching into southern
herkimer county, although the bulk of the lake effect clouds
extends westward across central and western new york. The
pressure gradient is finally showing signs of relaxing, as winds
are now light to calm at nearly all reporting sites.

With the deep snowpack, clear skies and diminishing winds,
early morning temperatures are very cold. Nys mesonet is showing
some locations in the adirondacks as cold as -23 f. Even parts
of the upper hudson valley are very cold, as schuylerville is
down to -21 f and glens falls is -15. With a light breeze still
in place in a few spots, wind chill values continue to be 10 to
30 below zero across the region, so anyone venturing out early
this morning is encouraged to bundle up, as frostbite will
continue to be a concern.

After the cold start, temperatures should be warming up today as
upper level heights starts to rise. Although it will be
noticeably warmer than yesterday, it will still be quite cold,
with highs mainly in the teens (perhaps a few low 20s for far
southern areas). With the high pressure areas sliding eastward
through the day, skies will continue to be mainly sunny and
winds will be fairly light.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As the high pressure area starts to depart, a light southerly
flow will start to develop for this evening into tonight, as
high clouds will start to increase. Temps may initially fall a
few degrees this evening, but will then start to level off and
may even start to rise for later tonight thanks to the
increasing southerly flow and more clouds starting to arrive.

Some light snow may arrive into the western adirondacks towards
daybreak, otherwise, it will be dry through the overnight hours.

Low pressure will be lifting across the great lakes and into
ontario on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, broad south to
southwest flow at low to mid levels will allow for warm air
advection isentropic lift. The southwest low level jet will be
increasing to 50+ knots by late in the day, allowing for light
precip to spread into the area from southwest to northeast.

During the morning hours, precip may be limited to far
northwestern areas and will be primarily be snow or snow sleet,
where a few inches will accumulate across the western and
central adirondacks. However, by afternoon, precip will be
spreading across the rest of the area. P-type will be transiting
to mainly rain or freezing rain by later in the day, depending
on surface temps (although some sleet may linger across the
adirondacks as well). Valley areas should primarily be changing
to rain, as the southerly flow allow temps to rise. However,
some northern and sheltered high terrain areas will struggle to
rise above freezing, as the low- level cold air remains trapped,
especially due to the snowpack in place. Some freezing rain may
even occur for areas where the surface temp is just above
freezing, as very cold ground temps could still allow for precip
to freeze on contact as well.

Temps will continue to rise into Wednesday night through the
30s, so most areas should be seeing just a steady cold rain for
Wednesday night (a few isolated pockets of sleet freezing rain
may continue across the adirondacks). Temps may even spike near
40 across far southern areas by late Wednesday night ahead of
the advancing cold front.

The storm's cold front should cross the area on Thursday
morning, although the front will slow down as a wave of low
pressure develops along the boundary. This may allow for a
period of steady precip to continue into the day, mainly the
morning through the mid afternoon. As colder air, both at the
surface and aloft, surges into the region from the west, a
changeover back to snow is possible for western and high terrain
areas by late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. It is
still unclear how much precip will be left to occur before temps
cool enough, but a light accumulation is possible for high
terrain areas by precip ends. High temps in the mid 30s to low
40s will occur early in they day before temps fall into the mid
20s to mid 30s for late in the day.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Anomalously strong upper low with sub-490 dam heights at 500 mb will
be located over hudson bay to start the period. It will drift
southward toward into ontario quebec by the weekend. Disturbances
will rotate around this low during the period, providing periodic
chances for snowfall. Given the source region for these disturbances
is continental polar from canada, expect any snowfall to remain
light and preferentially located over the higher terrain, especially
over the southern adirondacks where a lake effect enhancement will
occur when flow trajectories sufficiently align.

After a mainly dry Thursday night in the wake of the midweek frontal
wave, the first disturbance is likely to generate high terrain lake
effect snow showers on Friday. Behind this disturbance, Friday night
into Saturday night will likely be the coldest portion of the long
term as h850 temps will fall to the -15 to -20c range, 1-2sd below
normal. It appears the best chance for accumulating snow outside of
the high terrain lake effect zones will be toward the end of the
period (Sunday Monday) as stronger warm advection ahead of a sharper
shortwave trough is indicated by model consensus. There is still
considerable uncertainty toward the end of the long term period,
however.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
A narrow ridge of high pressure will cross the region during the taf
period, resulting in a continuation ofVFR conditions. Winds will
also diminish and temperatures will not be quite as cold during the
day today as we have seen recently. Skies will be mainly clear
aside from some increasing high cirrus this afternoon and evening.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower late tonight but remain
around 10 kft.

West to northwest winds will continue to diminish today, 5 to 10 kt
at kalb kpsf early, becoming light and variable. Winds will increase
out of the south at 5 to 10 kt at kalb late in the TAF period. Llws
conditions are possible after 06z Wed as winds aloft increase.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Thursday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Shsn... Ra... Sn.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Hydrology
Continued cold temperatures today into tonight will continue to
allow for river and lake ice to thicken and strengthen.

The next storm system will arrive late tonight into Wednesday.

Initially, precip will begin as snow or mixed precip before
changing to rain over most of the region by Wednesday night.

The precip may also change back to snow before ending on
Thursday.

Total precipitation amounts are still somewhat uncertain,
although most areas should see around an inch of liquid
equivalent. There is the potential for some high terrain areas
of western new england to see as much as two inches. In
addition, milder temperatures above freezing are expected,
although these temperatures may be rather brief (generally only
18-24 hours at most).

For most of the area, much of the precipitation will be
absorbed by the snowpack on the ground, however, some river
rises are possible, especially for southeastern parts of the
area. Some minor river flooding cannot be ruled out, mainly for
the housatonic and hoosic basins. Some isolated ice jam issues
are possible as well, although the limited amounts of total runoff
should prevent this from being a major concern.

Mainly dry weather and colder is expected for Friday into the
weekend and any precip during this time would be scattered snow
showers. This will allow any rivers to slowly recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for ctz001-013.

Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 am est this morning for nyz032-033-
038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.

Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz049-050-
052-053-059-060-064>066.

Ma... Wind chill warning until 7 am est this morning for maz001-025.

Vt... Wind chill warning until 7 am est this morning for vtz013-014.

Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for vtz015.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 61 mi65 min Calm 2°F 1036 hPa-6°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA2 mi43 minW 710.00 miFair-5°F-11°F72%1035.8 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT13 mi41 minW 310.00 miFair-8°F-15°F71%1035.7 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA20 mi41 minSW 510.00 miFair-3°F-14°F58%1035.5 hPa

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmW4N4W4NW5W434Calm--E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 12:11 AM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:03 PM EST     5.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.31.12.63.74.44.642.81.70.90.2-0.4-0.11.23.14.55.55.85.54.32.91.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 12:02 AM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:07 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:55 PM EST     5.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.11.32.83.84.44.53.82.71.60.80.1-0.401.53.34.75.55.85.34.12.71.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.