Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:01PM Sunday May 20, 2018 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 548 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.thunderstorms approaching lake erie shoreline and lower detroit river... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms located along a line extending from 7 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to 10 nm west of north cape...moving east at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will be near... North cape, detroit river light and luna pier around 620 pm edt. Gibraltar around 625 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 630 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 635 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4176 8348 4180 8344 4180 8341 4182 8343 4188 8336 4189 8338 4189 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4210 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ423 Expires:201805192245;;218441 FZUS73 KDTX 192148 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-192245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 201745
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
145 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Sun may 20 2018
a stalled frontal boundary south of michigan will continue to
produce considerable clouds and periodic showers through Tuesday.

High pressure will provide dry weather for the midweek period before
a risk of showers and thunderstorms returns for the start of
memorial weekend.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through Monday with
highs in the 60s, then begin to moderate Tuesday. Highs around 80
are expected from Wednesday through Saturday, with more humid
conditions developing by the holiday weekend.

Update
Issued at 1037 am edt Sun may 20 2018
based on water vapor and radar presentation upstream over
wisconsin along with recent hrrr hrrrx guidance... Will keep rain
chances into this afternoon mainly south of i-96. Well defined pv
maximum noted on mid-level water vapor imagery ch09 should help
keep precipitation intact as it exits southern wi and crosses
lake mi.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 330 am edt Sun may 20 2018
batch of showers and isolated tstms currently over southern
wisconsin are expected to weaken decrease in coverage as they
move east into slightly drier and more stable air mass over
michigan. Still, some of these will survive and will need to carry
chc pops today, particularly west of highway 131. Not much hope
for sunshine except perhaps north of m-46 and along the immediate
lakeshore this afternoon.

Surface ridging becomes more pronounced later today and tonight,
temporarily pushing the baroclinic zone a tad farther south and
resulting in a decreasing cloud pattern north of i-96. A patchy
frost threat could even develop in the far north around leota late
tonight due to the clearing and drier air.

Clouds and scattered showers bulge back north again for Monday as
nebraska shortwave moves northeast. This wave eventually gets
caught up in faster westerly mid level flow over wi mi and finally
comes through the area on Tuesday.

Bottom line... Our best chance of showers looks to be on Monday
and Monday night as the shortwave approaches but still a small
chance on Tuesday as it comes through - although mainly near and
east of highway 131 ahead of a developing afternoon lake breeze
front.

No thunder expected today and tonight, and the risk on
Monday Monday night is still quite low and mainly limited to areas
south of i-96. Instability stays mainly to our south.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 330 am edt Sun may 20 2018
high pressure over lake michigan at the start of the period will
produce dry weather until Thursday night. By then, the upper ridge
axis will be east of the CWA and developing low pressure over the
upper mississippi valley will start to play a role in our weather.

Increasing southwesterly flow will interact with short waves
emanating out of the trough to the west to produce showers across
much of the midwest into michigan. Both the GFS and ECMWF track the
low from northern mn southeast across lower michigan over the
weekend. We'll be on the warm side of the system, so we're looking
at a muggy airmass with a scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Highs during the period will be near 80.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 141 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
MVFR conditions will persist for parts of the region this
afternoon. Some drier air was dropping down from the north and
should support rising ceiling levels by late afternoon. An area of
rain moving in from the west is expected to weaken with time... But
it will likely cross several of the TAF sites through mid
afternoon.

A warm front will lift up from the south Monday morning. This will
bring increasing levels of moisture along with rain. Impacts are
expected to increase through the day. Some instability may move in
by the afternoon... But confidence on storms was not high enough to
put them in the forecast at this point.

Marine
Issued at 1037 am edt Sun may 20 2018
current forecast looks on track with respect to a noon expiration
of the small craft advisory. Ludington buoy last reported a
waveheight of 3.6 feet with a decreasing trend along with the wind.

Hydrology
Issued at 1127 am edt Sun may 20 2018
many rivers especially in southern michigan are running much above
normal for this time of year, with lowland nuisance flooding still
occurring at several points. Most river levels are falling.

Showers on Monday have the potential to produce around a half inch
of rain on average in southern michigan, though it wouldn't be
surprising if some locations picked up closer to an inch.

Depending on the basins where any heavier rain may fall, this
could prolong the nuisance flooding. The middle part of the week
will be dry, then rain chances return toward the end of the week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Meade
short term... Meade
long term... 04
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Cas
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 12 50°F 1023 hPa (+2.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi53 min WNW 9.9 G 12 47°F 1022.6 hPa (+2.0)47°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi53 min N 8 G 11 58°F 1022.4 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi60 minN 510.00 miOvercast55°F50°F83%1022.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi58 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast55°F52°F89%1022.3 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi58 minN 310.00 miOvercast55°F50°F84%1022 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW9W11W9W8W9W9W5W7W8W7NW4N9N7N6N4CalmNW7N4N4N7N5N5
1 day agoE15
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NE12NE10NE8NE8NE6NE5NE6NE7E8NE4NE3E5E6E7SE6SE10SE9S8S8S7SW5
2 days agoNE10NE11NE13
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NE9NE14NE14
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NE11NE9NE11NE9NE10NE7NE8NE7NE6NE7NE6E9E8E7NE11NE12E13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.