Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:47AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 547 Pm Edt Thu Apr 20 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 45 nm west of luna pier...or 46 nm west of north cape... Moving east at 40 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Monroe harbor and bolles harbor of refuge around 700 pm edt. Woodland beach...stony point and detroit beach around 705 pm edt. Detroit river light...lake erie metropark harbor and estral beach around 710 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach...stony point...detroit beach and estral beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. This a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots...and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake saint claire. Lat...lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4202 8324 4207 8323 4207 8314 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201704202315;;007288 FZUS73 KDTX 202147 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 547 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-202315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 271605
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1205 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 328 am edt Thu apr 27 2017
a storm system tracking northward across lake michigan today will
push a cold front through the area this morning. Expect a period
of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm with the passage of
that cold front. This is a strong cold front so once it is through
we will see temperatures falling during the afternoon with gusty
winds.

Update
Issued at 1205 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
precipitation chances were updated to account for eastward
progression of the cold front through early afternoon. Higher
probabilities were kept for extreme eastern sections of the
forecast area, including the chance for a couple of thunderstorms.

Probabilities are likely to be strictly limited to widely
scattered or an isolated showers through early afternoon. A few
showers could develop behind the low later this afternoon/evening
per high res guidance but should be light in nature. Overall, we
will see conditions trend drier through the afternoon.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 328 am edt Thu apr 27 2017
today we have strong surface low with good upper air support
lifting northward through lake michigan this morning reaching lake
superior by this afternoon. This sweeps a strong cold front
through the area this morning. There is an area of heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms near the surface low. That area of rain
should track nearly due north across areas west of us-131 during
the mid morning hours. The question of the day through is will
there be a line of convection with the cold front as is sweeps
east across our area mid to late morning? At this point it seems
questionable and it would be more likely for that line to form
over SE lower michigan by early this afternoon.

Once all that is done we are in the cold air in the wrap around
the departing deep surface low so it will be windy with
temperatures falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s by late in the
day today. A weak surface ridge builds in Friday morning so winds
will let up and skies may be partly cloudy.

There seems to be an overrunning event Friday afternoon into
Friday evening this is one of those jet entrance region lift sort
of events. Seems with this one the QPF will be light as there is
not a lot of mid level moisture for this system.

The main system come out into our area later Saturday into Sunday.

This event we have been writing about for over a week now. Between
the departing showers late Friday night and the income rain later
Saturday, expect another quiet weather periods.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 328 am edt Thu apr 27 2017
an active weather pattern will continue to develop Saturday night
through Monday as abundant gulf moisture will move northward into
the lower great lakes region along with strong 1000-850 mb moisture
transport. Precipitable water values will rise to 1.5 to 1.75 inches
by Sunday.

As such medium range guidance trends remain quite consistent in
showing potential for widespread rain over our fcst area Saturday
night through Sunday night that will likely be heavy at times. The
evolution of the synoptic pattern is conducive to a widespread 1 to
3 inch type rainfall over our fcst area Saturday night through
Monday afternoon with locally higher amounts.

Some convection is possible as well in this time frame although a
consensus of latest medium range guidance suggests that stronger
instability conducive to more robust convective development will
stay well south of our fcst area. So overall at this time fcst
concerns involve heavy rain and potential hydrological issues more
so than severe convective concerns.

A cooler airmass will advect in on the back side of the system
beginning late Monday with lingering showers. Cooler and unsettled
weather with more showers will continue Tuesday before more tranquil
wx returns by midweek

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 748 am edt Thu apr 27 2017
vfr conditions prevailed at all TAF at 12z and may last until 16z
or so before the low clouds behind the cold front move in early
this afternoon. Any showers will be light and I do not expect any
thunderstorms. It's possible jxn could see a thunderstorm this
afternoon but the risk is fairly low.

Marine
Issued at 328 am edt Thu apr 27 2017
i will keep the SCA going as is. Winds will let up tonight, at
least some.

Hydrology
Issued at 325 pm edt Wed apr 26 2017
confidence continues to grow that we will have an increasing flood
risk as we head into the weekend and next week. The gfs, gem, and
ecmwf all have been indicating a pattern that will produce
significant rainfall for our region, likely on the order of 2" to 3"
or more. When that much rain falls across the entire reaches of the
major basins - grand, muskegon, and kalamazoo - there will be some
significant rises. Trends will continue to be monitored.

Smaller rivers and streams are going to be highly responsive to this
type of rain, with abrupt rises possible. Residents along smaller
rivers and streams should be aware of the risk for these types of
changes late into the weekend and early next week.

At this point it is too early to tell exactly how high the rivers
will get, but flood stage may be exceeded at many locations
potentially.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lmz844>849.

Update... Jam
synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Laurens
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi50 min S 24 G 27 61°F 995.9 hPa (+0.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi50 min SSW 17 G 20 45°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi50 min SSW 11 G 18 66°F 1000 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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W7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lansing, Capital City Airport, MI5 mi57 minWSW 21 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy63°F46°F54%999 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi56 minWSW 16 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F50°F56%999.3 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi56 minW 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast61°F48°F63%999.7 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS21
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G27
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NW6NW4CalmE8S6S5SE8S12S13S11S11S15
G19
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G31
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G30
SW16
G34
1 day agoSE13SE11SE11
G15
S9SE11SE8SE9SE10SE6SE8SE14SE8SE12SE7SE8SE10SE9SE9SE11SE9S13SE15
G21
SE16
G23
SE18
G27
2 days agoE10
G17
SE11--SE10SE13SE11SE9E6E7E8E8SE11SE9SE8SE7SE8SE7SE9SE9SE10S12S11SE13S9
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.