Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:20PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:29 AM EDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 635 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers likely during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201710231530;;281880 FZUS51 KBUF 231035 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-231530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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location: 42.72, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231034
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
634 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
The streak of unseasonably warmth and dry conditions that has
remained with us through much of the autumn season will come to an
end today... With temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and 70s
ahead of a strong cold front. This eastward bound cold front will
bring a period of gusty rain showers across our region late this
afternoon and tonight. A few scattered showers and lake effect rain
showers will then continue Tuesday and through much of the week as
temperatures turn progressively cooler.

Near term through tonight
This early morning IR satellite imagery displays patches of cirrus
across the region. Temperatures are starting the day on the mild
side... With mid 50s to lower 60s across the region.

The summer-like warm that has been with us the past 5-6 weeks will
be nearing an end today... With temperatures peaking this afternoon
in the 70s for most. Southerly flow ahead of a storm system that is
tracking northward across the ohio valley, combined with 850 hpa
temperatures 12-14c will bring temperatures into the upper 60s
across the so. Tier and tug hill region, while downslope areas of
the lake plain, and saint lawrence valley will likely reach into the
mid 70s. A thicker cirrus cover today will likely keep these highs
today a few degrees cooler than Sunday.

Water vapor imagery displays a cut off upper level low, that has a
deep 1.5 PV anomaly down to around 700 hpa, over the mid-mississippi
valley, while a northern branch of the jet stream is dipping across
the north plains as a trough of low pressure moves through. Over the
course of today these two features will merge, and it will create a
slightly negatively tilted trough over the great lakes region. This
pv anomaly will swing northward across lake erie this evening.

A surface low that is currently over the southern ohio valley will
undergo rapid cyclogenesis today and tonight, deepening from around
1010 mb this morning to around 980 mb over northern michigan by 12z
Tuesday. Aiding in the rapid deepening of the surface low will be
the strong PV anomaly, as well as a coupled jet with the central
great lakes under the right entrance region of a 140 knot upper
level jet over the western great lakes, and the left exit region of
a 55 knot llj.

Dry weather will remain across the region through much of the day
with rain showers edging into western new york late this afternoon.

The first concern will be strong winds ahead of the line of rain
showers. The strong SE LLJ will likely downslope across the
chautauqua ridge late this afternoon and early evening... With gusts
upwards to 50 mph. The LLJ appears to have slightly backed with
recent model runs such that the flow will be more perpendicular to
the ridge axis. This will increase confidence of stronger wind gusts
along the lake erie shoreline, and a wind advisory will be issued
from 4 pm to 11 pm this evening for chautauqua and southern erie
counties.

In addition to the northwest of the tug hill, SE downslope winds
will likely reach near 50 mph here too, with the base of the llj
just a 1k feet above the surface. Timing will be a bit later than
along the lake erie shoreline... With stronger wind gusts likely
after sunset. Will have a wind advisory here from 8 pm tonight
through the overnight to 8 am tomorrow morning for jefferson and
lewis counties.

Rain will then spread eastward across the region this evening as a
cold front swings across the region. Pwats near +2sd, along with
favorable upward lift ahead of the strong PV anomaly that will
rotate northward across lake erie and into southern canada, along
with lift ahead of the cold front will support a line of rain
showers. Overall rain totals will likely range between a half to one
inch for much of the region. The SE downslope flow will likely keep
areas along the lake erie shoreline with slightly less rainfall, on
the order of a third to half an inch.

Behind the cold front, southwest synoptic winds will continue to
remain moderate tonight, with the deepening surface low cutting
northward to our west. While the best isallobaric couplet will be
over western lake erie and michigan, we will still see pressure
falls rises of 2 to 4 mb per three hours tonight, that when combined
with cold air advection could produce wind gusts upwards to 40 mph
near lake erie and the hill tops of SW nys. Farther away from the
surface low gusts will not be as strong across the finger lakes and
southern tug hill region.

By the close of tonight the surface cold front will be along our
eastern zones. Rain will begin to end a few hours past midnight near
chautauqua county and likely end across much of wny by sunrise
tomorrow.

Temperatures will be mild until the front crosses, with areas across
the finger lakes and east of lake ontario holding onto low to mid
60s through much of the night. To the west temperatures will be
dropping into the 50s by the close of the night.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
By Tuesday morning, steady rain focused along a strong LLJ will be
confined to the eastern lake ontario region with this tapering to
showers by Tuesday afternoon. 00z model guidance has trended
slightly faster with this system, with mainly dry weather for the
rest of western new york on Tuesday. Post frontal subsidence and
drying will result in some breaks of sunshine, perhaps sneaking in
one more fairly nice day before 'fall' arrives. Highs on Tuesday be
west to east dependent due to the front, ranging from the upper 50s
to mid 60s across far western new york to the upper 60s to around 70
east of rochester.

Vertically stacked low pressure will remain across eastern michigan
Tuesday night, which will maintain a moderate ssw surface flow.

Temperatures aloft will cool enough (-2c at 850mb) for lake effect
rain showers, however these will largely be on the canadian side of
the border, perhaps just clipping niagara county. Otherwise, the
cyclonic flow aloft may result in a stray shower or sprinkle but a
narrow surface ridge axis should keep the vast majority of the
region dry Tuesday night.

After this, the forecast focus shift primarily to lake effect rain
showers. The closed upper low driving our weather will be very slow
to move, and model guidance often struggles timing the ejection of
such a system. Using the latest model consensus, expect this will
transition to a sharp trough axis Wednesday with this axis moving
into western new york on Wednesday night. This will focus lake
effect rain showers across the niagara frontier on Wednesday, mainly
buffalo north and west. These showers will drop across buffalo
Wednesday afternoon and then to across the south towns and to the
western southern tier Wednesday night. The same trend will play out
later northeast of lake ontario, with showers focused mainly on
jefferson and lewis counties Wednesday night. Otherwise, the upper
level trough will allow scattered light showers to spread further
from the lakes.

By Thursday the upper level trough axis should be in southern quebec
with winds shifting from the southwest to the south. Lingering lake
effect rain showers will weaken and shift northward with fair
weather elsewhere. Then a weak surface ridge will extend from maine
to alabama, with this providing dry weather for Thursday night.

Temperatures will be notably cooler with highs generally in the 50s
Wednesday and Thursday, with upper 40s across higher terrain on
Wednesday. Even so, this is only slightly below normal for late
october.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The longwave trough over the center of the country will 'reload'
Friday... As the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive
southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the
longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour
southwards into the lower 48.

The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front
that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the upper great
lakes. This front will make its way across the lower great lakes on
Saturday... Then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it
will become parallel to the mean h925-70 flow. Following a nice day
of weather on Friday... This scenario will favor scattered showers
for both days of the weekend.

Looking further ahead towards the following week... A third shot of
cold air will charge southwards... And this one will have the best
chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our
forecast area.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
Vfr flight conditions to start the 12z tafs will remain across the
region through at least 18z.

A deepening area of low pressure will track from the ohio valley
through the central great lakes today, while swinging a cold front
across the region tonight.

This front will bring a steady area of showers, with flight
conditions deteriorating to MVFR (possible so. Tier ifr) late this
afternoon and through tonight. Rain will taper off between 05z to
the west, and near 12z to the east.

In addition a strong LLJ up to 50 knots at 2k feet may produce some
areas of llws across wny tonight. Also the deepening area of low
pressure will bring some gusty winds to the region, upwards to 30
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR in occasional rain early east of lake ontario.

Otherwise MVFRVFR.

Wednesday and Thursday... Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
A southeast wind will increase over lake erie this afternoon,
accelerating off the chautauqua ridge. Though these winds will slow
some as they reach the lake waters... They should still remain strong
enough to warrant small craft advisories... With a SCA for lake erie,
and the upper niagara river later this afternoon and into the
overnight hours. Progressively cooler air through the week will
maintain these SCA for lake erie into Thursday.

Over lake ontario the southeast flow will largely maintain the
higher waves over the central and northern side of the lake.

Southeast winds along the eastern shoreline will bring SCA late this
afternoon and through Tuesday morning.

After a cold front passes, a southwesterly wind will increase waves
on the entire lake ontario later Tuesday night, with SCA likely
through Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt Tuesday for
nyz007-008.

Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for nyz019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt
Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
Tuesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11
am edt Tuesday for loz045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Apffel
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 14 65°F 1017.6 hPa51°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi42 min 64°F 1017.9 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 24 mi90 min SSE 16 G 18 65°F 62°F2 ft1017.6 hPa (-1.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi42 min 64°F 1018.4 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi30 min SSE 11 G 15 64°F 1017.6 hPa (-1.1)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 39 mi30 min SSE 12 G 15 66°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi30 min SSE 9.9 G 14 63°F 1018.3 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY16 mi36 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F52°F70%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5S7S4SW64SW6SW6SW8SW7S4SE4S5S7S9S8S9S9S7S6S7SE8S7S11
1 day agoSE5SE4S5S7SW7SW9SW8SW8W6SW4SW3CalmSE4SE3S4SE5S4S4SE4SE5S4S6S4SE6
2 days agoS4S4SW5SW7SW4SW6SW7SW11SW7SW8SW6S7S6S3S4S4S5S3S5S4S6S5S8S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.