Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:20PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1236 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est early this morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LEZ041 Expires:201801241000;;911166 FZUS51 KBUF 240536 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1236 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-241000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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location: 42.72, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241111
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
611 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
A northwesterly flow of colder air will produce some nuisance lake
effect snow showers southeast of lakes erie and ontario today... With
these then coming to an end tonight as high pressure and drier air
build into the region. Otherwise generally dry weather and below
normal temperatures will prevail through Thursday before milder
conditions return for the end of the week... Along with increasing
chances for some rain showers by Saturday as another cold front
approaches.

Near term through tonight
A seasonably cold northwesterly flow featuring 850 mb temps of -12c
to -15c will be found across the region today... And this in conjunction
with orographic influences will help to generate some lingering lake
snows southeast of lakes erie and ontario. This stated... These will
merely be of the light nuisance-type variety given low capping inversion
heights of only 4 kft and a shortening northwesterly fetch... Which will
help to keep the snows multibanded and therefore weaker more transient
in nature. In general... We are only expecting an additional inch or two
of accumulation southeast of lake ontario... And an inch or less in more
scattered snow showers southeast of lake erie... Where the activity will
be further inhibited by lingering ice cover. Elsewhere it will be drier
with only a few scattered flurries or light snow showers... With all
areas seeing temperatures struggle to get much above the lower to mid
20s in our newly established colder airmass.

Tonight high pressure and much drier air will build into the region.

In conjunction with the low level flow becoming light northerly... This
will help to squelch any lingering scattered snow showers south and
southeast of the lakes... With quiet and dry conditions otherwise
prevailing under slowly diminishing lower clouds from north to south.

Given the much colder start and the lightening winds eroding lower
clouds... Overnight lows will be much colder... With mins ranging from
around zero across the north country to the 10 to 15 range south
of lake ontario.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
It will be a quiet end to the week, as an expansive ridge of high
pressure extending from hudson bay to the gulf of mexico will cross
our region, bringing fair skies and generally light winds for much
of the period. Temperatures will run on the chilly side on Thursday,
as the region will still be subject to cold northwesterly flow
aloft. With that in mind, look for highs in the 20s on Thursday.

Warm advection will begin to kick Thursday night, as the center of
the surface high shifts to the east of the forecast area.

Temperatures shouldn't run as cold as Wednesday night, with lows in
the upper teens in western new york, though we may still see single
digits and possibly a few sub-zero spots in the north country, where
colder air will still have a hold, and clear skies light winds will
promote radiational cooling.

As the high moves off the eastern seaboard on Friday, southerly
return flow will strengthen across the eastern half of the country.

This, in combination with upper level ridging moving overhead will
boost temperatures across the region, with temperatures climbing
well into the 40s across western new york, with a few spots
potentially touching 50 degrees where downsloping will add a little
extra boost. The warmer air will be slower to reach areas east of
lake ontario, where highs will stay in the 30s.

As we move into Friday night, southerly winds will strengthen across
the area, as the pressure gradient tightens between the high off the
east coast and low pressure tracking in the vicinity of james bay.

Increasing moisture aloft and the approach of the upper level jet
will usher in increasing clouds across the lower great lakes Friday
night. Ongoing warm advection, generally downsloping breezy
southerly winds, and increasing clouds will produce a seasonably
mild night, with lows ranging from near 40 across far western ny, to
the low 30s in the north country.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Yet another january thaw will extend into the weekend, as gomex-
sourced sourced air will continue to work across the region on
southwesterly return flow around a strong high centered over the
western atlantic. Rain chances will be on the increase as we move
through the day on Saturday and deeper moisture advects eastwards
into the forecast area in advance of a robust upper level trough
crossing the northern plains and western great lakes.

Proceeding into Saturday night and Sunday, model guidance
continues to suggest the development of a surface low over the
northeastern u.S., corresponding to the right entrance region of
the upper level jet and a strong 500mb vortmax ejecting out of
the middle mississippi valley, however the individual models
continue to display differences in the timing position of these
contributing factors and subsequently the location of the
developing low. This has important ramifications for the amount
and type of precipitation that we will receive across our
forecast area this weekend. The general consensus is starting to
lean towards the heaviest rains remaining east of our area,
more over central eastern new york, with an increasing potential
for snow across our forecast area on Sunday, as latest general
consensus places our area on the western flank of the developing
low. To summarize, it looks like precipitation is still likely
this weekend, however there is increasing uncertainty regarding
type and amounts. This should come into sharper focus as we move
through the rest of the week and model solutions come into
better alignment.

While temperatures Saturday are expected to run well above average
ahead of the approaching upper level trough, and readings on Sunday
will be dependent on the final location of the developing surface
low, guidance is in good agreement that we will be thrust back into
winter by Monday, as the surface low moves out to sea and a deep
upper level trough moves across the great lakes. Temperatures will
fall below freezing for Monday, and we should remain locked in the
20s for Tuesday. Brisk northwesterly flow will make it feel quite
colder, and lake effect snows can be expected southeast of the
lakes. However, looking deeper into next week, it appears that the
progressive pattern will continue across north america, with the next
ridge bringing yet another warmup by the middle of next week.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
A northwesterly flow of cold air will help maintain some weak lake
snows and localized reductions to ifr southeast of the lakes into
this morning... With this activity then diminishing this afternoon
and evening as high pressure and drier air builds into the region.

In general... Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning should tend to
improve toVFR this afternoon and tonight as the high builds into
our area.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday night and Sunday... Ifr MVFR in numerous to widespread
rain showers.

Marine
Brisk northwesterlies early this morning will steadily diminish
today and tonight as high pressure builds into the region. To cover
the lingering brisk winds and associated wave action... Small craft
advisories remain in effect as outlined below.

The aforementioned high will then slowly drift eastward into new
england Thursday and Friday... While maintaining quiet and relatively
tranquil conditions across the lower lakes region. The next chance
for advisory-worthy winds and waves will then arrive Friday night
and Saturday... As the pressure gradient across our region tightens
out ahead of an approaching cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
loz042-045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Wood
long term... Wood
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi51 min NW 11 G 12 23°F 1016.4 hPa14°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi51 min 24°F 1017.3 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi51 min 22°F 1017.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi39 min WNW 19 G 22 25°F 1018.4 hPa (+3.6)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 39 mi39 min WNW 20 G 23 23°F 1017.6 hPa (+3.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY16 mi45 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast23°F17°F78%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW7SW8S16SW17
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1 day agoCalmE4E6E7E8E7NE6NE4E4NE4E5E6SE8SE8S11S7SE7S11S10S15S18
G23
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SW9SE6
2 days agoSW7SW6SW6SW4S7SW4SW4SW5CalmN3NE5N4N4CalmCalmE3SE33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.