Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:30PM Friday March 22, 2019 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201903222115;;748948 Fzus51 Kbuf 221344 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 944 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-222115- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 944 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain, then snow showers likely late. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then just a chance of snow showers overnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Clear.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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location: 42.72, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221357
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
957 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
An intensifying storm system will make its way to the coast of maine
today... Then to the canadian maritimes tonight. Colder air pouring
into our region on its backside will force a mixture of rain and
snow to change over to all snow later today... With the snow then
tapering off from west to east tonight and early Saturday morning as
the low pulls further away from our region. Snowfall amounts from
this system will be highly variable... With the greatest amounts
found across the higher terrain and east of lake ontario. High
pressure will then build across our region over the weekend and
provide us with fair dry weather... Along with a return to much
milder conditions by Sunday.

Near term through tonight
Radar imagery showing two distinct areas of steady precipitation
this morning. The first over the eastern lake ontario is directly
related to the deepening coastal low, forced by a band of
deformation in the 900-700mb layer on the western periphery of the
system. This will continue to produce steady precipitation today,
especially east of i-81. Precipitation type will be mainly snow
across higher terrain, with some rain mixing in at lower elevations.

A second area of steady precipitation is found across western ny,
associated with dpva and large scale ascent ahead of the mid level
low center. This area of steadier precipitation will move east
across the area and eventually fill in the gap in precipitation from
the genesee valley to the western finger lakes. Precip type across
western ny will be rain or rain snow mix at lower elevations through
early afternoon, with snow across higher terrain.

During the course of today rapidly strengthening low pressure will
track northeastward to the maine coastline... While its parent mid-
level closed low undergoes a fujiwara-type interaction with a second
and stronger mid-level trough digging southeastward into our region
from the upper great lakes. The combined effects of these two
systems will result in deepening moisture across our region... Along
with slow but steady cooling of our airmass that will result in 850
mb temperatures lowering to between -6c and -10c by early this
evening. Coupled with increasing upsloping driven by a strengthening
northwesterly low level flow... The increase in forcing will continue
to produce widespread precipitation later today.

With only gradual cooling taking place aloft and boundary layer
temperatures remaining rather marginal for rain vs. Snow through
early to mid afternoon... Precipitation type through that time should
be highly elevation dependent... Varying from mostly rain across the
lowest elevations to snow across the higher terrain east of both
lakes... And a general mix of rain wet snow found in between. Given
both this and the high late march Sun angle... Expect that the bulk
of any snowfall accumulations through today will mostly remain
confined to the higher terrain... With around 2" falling across the
higher elevations east of lake erie... And 2-4" possible across the
tug hill and western adirondack foothills east of lake ontario.

Elsewhere... Any accumulations should be on the order of an inch or
less... And mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces at that.

Later this afternoon and this evening continued cooling (driven
both by cold air advection and precipitation) will combine with
diminishing insolation to force a changeover to all snow areawide.

This will result in a period of accumulating snow for all areas
during this time frame... Which will feature the best overall snowfall
rates accums from this event... Along with some areas of blowing
snow given increasingly brisk northwesterly winds. As was the case
during the day... Upsloping and contributions of lake moisture will
help to maximize snowfall accums across the higher terrain east
and southeast of the lakes. East of lake erie another general
inch or two of fresh accumulation will be likely... While southeast
and east of lake ontario a more prolonged period of more favorable
moisture and lift should allow for additional accumulations of
4 to 7 inches.

Later this evening and overnight the snow will then steadily wind
down from southwest to northeast as the low pulls further away
and into the canadian maritimes... And the supporting large-scale
lift and deeper moisture gets stripped away in a similar fashion.

Compared to previous guidance... The 00z 22 model suite is a bit
faster with this trend... Which should result in only some scattered
light snow showers leftover across the north country by sunrise
of Saturday morning.

Given all of the above... Have made no changes to our existing winter
weather headlines. Winter storm warnings remain in effect for the
eastern lake ontario region... Where a general 6-12" of snow is
expected across the higher terrain of the tug hill and western
adirondack foothills... And winter weather advisories remain in
effect for wayne and northern cayuga counties... Where 4-6" of
accumulation is expected. These amounts are similar to... But also
slightly lower than our previous continuity due to the somewhat
quicker departure of the snow tonight... And the fact that not much
snow may fall across the advisory area until very late today... Which
should help to cut back on accumulations at least somewhat there.

With respect to temperatures... Highs today should range from the
lower to mid 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper
30s elsewhere... Before cold advection and nocturnal cooling sends
readings down into the upper teens to mid 20s tonight. Coupled
with brisk northwesterly winds... This will result in wind chills
dipping to the 5 to 15 above zero range tonight... And will make
it feel like midwinter all over again.

Short term Saturday through Monday night
The roller coaster ride of temperatures that is so common this time
of year will continue through this forecast period... As mercury
readings that will climb into the 50s for most areas on Sunday will
be sandwiched between two days with highs only in the mid to upper
30s. Welcome to early spring in western and north central new york.

As we open this time frame on Saturday... A storm system will be
exiting across the canadian maritimes. While there may be some
leftover snow showers early in the morning across the north
country... Saturday will feature a brisk wind with high pressure over
the ohio valley offering the return to full sunshine. This should
help to take some of the bite out of what would otherwise be a
chilly mid march day... As h85 temps of -8c will prevent readings
from climbing out of the 30s. These temperatures will be nearly 10
degrees below normal... But then again at this time of year... The
'normal' is just an average of these large temperature swings.

The area of high pressure will slide by to our south Saturday night.

This will support clear skies... That while initially will allow for
excellent star gazing... Will give way to the waning full moon from
earlier in the week. In any case... Temperatures will settle into the
20s away from the lakes... With some teens not out of the question in
the colder valleys of the southern tier and in the foothills of the
'dacks east of the black river valley.

Sunday should then be the nicest day of the weekend... As warm
advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push h85 temps to
within a degree or so of zero c. Given the convergent mid level flow
and well mixed environment below h85... The vast majority of western
new york should easily climb into the low to mid 50s... And this
despite an increase in mid level clouds after lunchtime. A deep
southwest flow will prevent the buffalo metro area from escaping the
40s though... With similarly cool conditions anticipated across the
north country (including the thousand islands region).

A cold front north of lake ontario Sunday evening will steadily
march southward across our forecast area during the course of Sunday
night. This will generate some mixed rain and snow showers that will
transition to just snow as the cold air deepens in the wake of the
anabatic style front. Have raised pops a bit... Particularly across
the southern tier where stronger lift is being suggested by the
possibility of a coupled h25 jet. Accumulations should be under an
inch in most areas... With slightly higher amounts possible across
the elevated terrain of the southern tier.

On Monday... An expansive area of arctic high pressure over the
canadian prairies will drift to the upper mississippi valley. This
will shove the aforementioned cold frontal boundary southward to the
carolinas. As a result... Any residual light snow showers in the
morning (mainly the southern tier) will give way to increasing
amounts of midday and afternoon sunshine. It will be colder again
though... As steady cold advection through the day holding afternoon
highs in the 30s. The exception may be close to the pennsylvania
border where some 40 degree readings will be possible.

The large surface high will build across all of the great lakes
region Monday night. While it will be cold enough aloft to support
some instability over the lakes... The synoptic environment will be
very dry and there should be too much shear for any real lake
response. This will leave us with fair cold weather with mins in the
teens and low 20s.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
The weather cannot get much more uneventful than what we will
experience during this period... But then again... For this time of
year we should be thankful for the dull and boring. It could be a
lot worse. That being said... There is high confidence that we will
have precipitation free weather through this three day period with
notable day to day warming. While temperatures will average nearly
10 degrees below normal on Tuesday... We will warm to roughly 10
degrees above normal for Thursday.

The reason for the respite in active weather will be progressive
ridge that move from the rockies on Tuesday to the east coast on
Thursday. In fact... Many of the medium range ensembles of both the
gfs (ie gefs) and ECMWF suggest that this pattern will further
evolve into a rex block along the east coast. This would establish a
deepening southerly flow over the lower great lakes (just outside of
this seven day forecast) that could support temperatures in the 60s
and even the lower 70s by Saturday. While those temperatures can be
debated... It is highly likely that we will at least experience above
normal mercury readings for both Friday and Saturday.

Interestingly... This scenario is not supported by the 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook from the climate prediction center. Stay tuned.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Low pressure will rapidly intensify while making its way
northeastward to the coast of maine today. Plentiful low level
moisture and upsloping on the backside of this system will result in
widespread ifr MVFR ceilings from today into this evening. At the
same time... Colder air will overspread our region and force a mix of
rain and snow to change over to all snow... With this change first
taking place across the higher terrain... Then spreading to the lower
elevations. This will result in visibilities also lowering to the
ifr MVFR ranges... With ifr more prevalent where the snow is
steadier.

Tonight the low will push further northeastward to the canadian
maritimes. Diminishing moisture and cyclonic flow on its backside
will result in the snow diminishing from southwest to northeast...

with low level moisture attendant lower clouds then subsequently
breaking up in a similar fashion. This will result in flight
conditions improving to theVFR range south of lake ontario...

and toVFR MVFR across the north country.

Outlook...

Saturday... Lingering scattered snow showers MVFR east of lake
ontario ending early... OtherwiseVFR.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday...VFR.

Marine
Intensifying low pressure near new york city will track northeast
to the maine coastline today... Then to the canadian maritimes
tonight. In its wake... Freshening westerlies and northwesterlies
will bring fairly widespread advisory-worthy winds and waves to the
lower lakes region today through Saturday night... For which small
craft advisories remain in effect as outlined below.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz006-007.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Saturday for nyz004-005.

Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Saturday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Sunday for loz045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Hitchcock jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi42 min 33°F 34°F1003.9 hPa27°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi42 min 1003.9 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi42 min 1003.6 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi60 min WSW 8.9 G 11 33°F 1004.9 hPa (-0.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi60 min W 11 G 14 36°F 1004.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY16 mi66 minW 810.00 miLight Rain36°F32°F86%1003.8 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S14S11SW12SW9SW9SW6SW5SW5SW7--SW9SW10SW6SW5W13W9W7W9W8W9W7W8
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66SW3NE3NE4NE5NW4CalmSW6CalmCalmE5S6SE7E6E6SE6SE6
2 days agoSW8SW10SW10SW10SW13SW16
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.