Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:13PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 4:55PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 400 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041 Expires:201708181515;;559744 FZUS51 KBUF 180800 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-181515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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location: 42.72, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 181554
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1154 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and produce a
few more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast
of the lakes. Another weak front will cross the area Saturday with
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the
southern tier. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather
Sunday and Monday.

Near term through tonight
Regional radar this morning shows the last of the overnight
precipitation has pulled well away to the east, while regional
visible satellite imagery shows a well-developed CU field, inland of
the prominent lake shadows northeast of the lakes. The very moist
airmass, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s is
supporting this cloud field. Given all of the moisture in place,
expect plenty of clouds to hang around outside of lake shadow areas,
which will be maintained thanks to a breezy southwesterly flow ahead
of an approaching cold front on the southeast flank of a well-
developed low centered just north of the soo. This breezy southwest
flow, combined with the warm and muggy airmass that is in place will
make for an especially warm day across the lake ontario plains and
the genesee valley, where highs will climb into the mid 80s, while
readings will be more mild downwind of the lakes, where temperatures
will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The warm and muggy airmass, combined with troughing aloft will
provide a favorable environment for the development of scattered
afternoon showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, along lake breeze
boundaries, which should be pushed well inland by the relatively
strong flow aloft. Most likely locations for convection in our area
will run from the southern tier across the finger lakes into the
southern tug hill western adirondacks this afternoon, while areas
to the west will remain well within the stable lake shadow and
should see a sunny and dry, albeit breezy afternoon, as brisk winds
aloft mix down to the surface, with gusts of 25-35mph expected.

The diurnally driven widely scattered convection will mostly end by
mid evening as the boundary layer begins to cool and stabilize, and
the weak synoptic scale cold front moves east of the area. This will
leave mainly dry weather overnight, although cooling aloft
interacting with the warm lake waters may allow a few scattered
showers to develop late tonight over and east of lakes erie and
ontario. Expect lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains, and around
60 across the interior southern tier and tug hill region. The
airmass will slowly become less muggy overnight as weak cool dry
advection continues.

Short term Saturday through Monday night
On Saturday, a progressive amplified trough will swing across the
forecast area. Weak warm advection ahead of the trough passage will
bring some modest instability back into the western southern tier
during the morning with increasing wind shear. A few stronger
thunderstorms may develop with the trough passage in the western
southern tier, with storms possibly being aided by the developing
lake erie lake breeze boundary. SPC has included this area in a
marginal risk for severe weather. Otherwise, more widely scattered
showers and rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday afternoon and
early evening for the rest of the forecast area with the trough
passage. With slightly cooler air aloft under the trough and some
cloud cover, expect high temperatures will run just below normal in
the mid 70s. Showers and any thunder will diminish overnight in the
wake of the trough axis passage and loss of diurnal heating. Lows
Saturday night will be a bit cooler than previous nights, in the mid
50s to low 60s.

A broad surface high will build in across the upper ohio valley
Sunday bringing moderating temperatures and drier air. This will
result in high temperatures near normal values. As the surface high
slides off the mid-atlantic coast Monday, return flow developing
will push high temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Skies will
remain mostly clear Sunday into Monday, which should provide prime
viewing conditions for the eclipse on Monday. Low temperatures
Sunday night and Monday will follow the same warming trend as the
high temperatures, with lows Monday night well into the 60s with
building humidity.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
This period will be dominated by a steadily amplifying longwave
trough over eastern canada and the lower great lakes. This will lead
to notably lower day to day temperatures... Although at the onset of
the time frame... Our temperatures will be well above normal. As for
the day to day details...

our region will find itself between systems on Tuesday... As high
pressure anchored off the coast and a cold front approaching from
the upper great lakes will support a very warm and increasingly
humid environment. Temperatures should easily climb into the mid to
upper 80s across the lake plains and in the valleys. This airmass
will also be increasingly unstable... And while the vast majority of
the day will be rain free... Some showers and thunderstorms will be
possible later in the day. This will mainly be the case over the
western counties where lake breeze interactions and or the presence
of a pre-frontal trough could focus convection.

A cold front will then push southeast across our forecast area
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, likely bringing widespread
showers and or thunderstorms across the forecast area.

Expansive high pressure over the upper mississippi valley Wednesday
afternoon will gradually settle to the southeast across the lower
great lakes and ohio valley by Thursday. This will allow for
significant improvement in our weather with fair weather
returning... Along with a pronounced turn to cooler and more
comfortable (lower dew points) conditions. Temperatures by Thursday
will average at least 5 deg f below normal.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Stratus has largely mixed out this morning, leaving most locations
vfr, though a very moist boundary layer airmass featuring sfc
dewpoints in the upper 60s low 70s is keeping cloud bases lower,
resulting in MVFR CIGS hanging on at kiag kjhw kart. These cigs
should lift with increasing mixing this morning, and the lake shadow
will also become more prominent as we move into the afternoon hours,
resulting in clearing skies at kiag kart.

Scattered -shra -tsra can be expected well inland of the lakes this
afternoon, courtesy of a moist low level airmass and troughing
aloft, along with an approaching cold front. This diurnally driven
convection is not expected to affect any TAF terminals, and will be
roughly along a line from kole-kfzy eastwards. Convection should
diminish after sunset. While the airmass in the region will begin to
dry out somewhat overnight, dewpoints will remain the 60s, and it is
likely that we will see MVFR CIGS return again tonight, with ifr
across the southern tier, as cloud bases lower once again.

Outlook...

Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late.

Marine
Low pressure will move from just east of lake superior today to west
central quebec by Saturday, with a trailing cold front crossing the
eastern great lakes this afternoon. Southwest winds will become
quite strong on lake erie today as they funnel up the length of the
lake, with solid small craft advisory conditions this afternoon and
evening. The southwest winds will be lighter at the east end of lake
ontario. West winds will slowly increase on lake ontario overnight
into Saturday, with small craft advisory conditions probable on at
least the east half of the lake for Saturday, while winds remain a
little lighter on erie.

High pressure will then bring a return to light winds Sunday and
Monday on both lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock wood
short term... Church
long term... Church rsh
aviation... Wood
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi42 min SW 9.9 G 13 76°F 1007.1 hPa69°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi42 min 77°F 1007.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 24 mi90 min SW 14 G 18 75°F 73°F3 ft1006.8 hPa (-0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi48 min 76°F 1007.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi30 min W 16 G 19 75°F 1007.3 hPa (-0.6)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 39 mi30 min SSW 12 G 21 80°F 1006.4 hPa (+0.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi30 min SW 17 G 23 80°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY16 mi36 minSW 18 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy81°F66°F62%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE7E7E6E8E8E8E4SE7S5SW4S9S8S10SW9SW11SW11
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1 day agoN4N74N7NE7N7NE6NE6NE6NE6E8E6E6SE5E4CalmE5E5SE5E4SE5SE5E5SE5
2 days agoW10SW5W10Calm3SW8NW3W6
G15
SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmN5N3N5N3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmN4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.