Sunrise 6:56 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:26 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

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FXUS63 KLBF 181114 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 614 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing rain and wintry precipitation ends from west to east this morning, with dry and cooler conditions this afternoon.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives Friday morning into Saturday, with a threat for rain and snow primarily near and west of Highway 83.

- Additional chances for precipitation continue into early and middle next week, with a gradual warming trend bringing highs back to near and above average.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Precipitation continues across much of the Sandhills and southwest into central Nebraska this morning, within a zone of strong mid- level FGEN. A myriad of precipitation types have been observed, with rain, snow, graupel, and sleet all observed here at the office over the past hour. In areas further north across the Sandhills, an all snow p-type has led to some accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Any impacts to roadways has been minimal thus far, and this is expected to continue this morning. Scattered embedded thunderstorms have begun to wane over the last hour as well, as MUCAPE values continue to drop of quickly across the area.

As the mid-level trough axis continues to exit the area this morning, precipitation is expected to quickly end from west to east.
By early this afternoon, all areas are anticipated to be dry and this will persist into tonight. Skies will slowly clear from north to south today as well, with most areas outside of far southwest Nebraska seeing at least partly sunny skies this afternoon.
Northerly flow and at least weak cold advection continues today, and should keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

By tonight, strong high pressure will spill along the lee of the Rockies, with cold air continuing to filter in aloft. The area will sit on the southern periphery of the aforementioned high, and low- level flow transitions easterly in response. The easterly upslope flow will increase ascent, promoting precipitation development west of HWY 61 by early Friday morning. Initial p-type looks to be rain/snow or all snow, with at least marginally supportive thermo profiles aloft aided by time of day. This should transition back to rain as we head into the late morning and early afternoon hours. Precipitation rates look to remain light, with NBM guidance suggesting 1-hour amounts of up to a few hundredths at best. The light rain will gradually transition back to snow into Saturday night, as the column cools after sunset. The slow and steady nature of snow should provide detrimental to much in the way of accumulations, with antecedent warm ground conditions from recent warmth. SLRs look to remain only around 7-10:1, with only marginal temperatures aloft overnight Saturday. Cannot rule out some light and slushy accumulations west of HWY 61, though confidence in this is not high. The ongoing precipitation Saturday, along with persistent clouds should keep highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A brief lull in the active regime is expect on Sunday as shortwave ridging translates through the Plains aloft. A return to southerly flow on Sunday boosts highs back into the 60s across the area. By Monday morning, another shortwave will drop southeast out of Canada into the Dakotas, with an associated surface low ejecting across northern Nebraska Monday afternoon. This drags a cold front through the area, and scattered showers can be anticipated along the front.
Meager instability points to at least an isolated thunderstorm chance across northern Nebraska, though no severe weather is currently anticipated.

By midweek, upper ridging begins to amplify across the Rockies, helping to boost highs back to near/above average across the area.
Flow aloft begins to transition southwesterly aloft on Wednesday, and spells a return of precipitation chances locally. Confidence wanes with respect to the timing and track of additional shortwaves, and will need to be monitored for the return of thunderstorm chances into the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An expansive stratus cloud shield will gradually lift and precipitation pushes east this morning, allowing most terminals to return to VFR ceilings by 18/15z. In its wake, northwest winds strengthen with gusts around 25 kts. Winds weaken after sunset, but the next lower cloud deck approaches the area overnight, especially the southern terminals (LBF).

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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