Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wanakah, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:40PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:57 PM EDT (22:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201905240300;;341214 Fzus51 Kbuf 231905 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 305 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-240300- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 305 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wanakah, NY
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location: 42.73, -78.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231947
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
347 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will end from west
to east later this afternoon and evening following the passage of a
cold front. In the wake of this feature... Cooler and generally dry
conditions will then follow for the rest of tonight and Friday...

before another low pressure system brings another couple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms later Friday night and Saturday. Somewhat
unsettled conditions may then linger into Sunday... Before high
pressure brings a return to dry weather in time for memorial day.

Near term through Friday
As of this writing... The prefrontal trough and its area of much
weakened convection is pushing into central new york... With just
some garden-variety showers and isolated storms found across the
north country. These will continue to push east across this
particular region over the next few hours.

In the wake of the prefrontal trough... Some additional convective
redevelopment has (as previously thought) begun to take shape to the
southeast of lake erie... Along the southeastern edge of a developing
lake shadow. This activity should continue to develop and push eastward
across the southern tier and at least interior portions of the finger
lakes this afternoon... With the amount of atmospheric recovery in
the wake of the prefrontal trough the key to exactly how well developed
this activity will get. Should sufficient organization of this take
place... The highly sheared environment that is in place will still be
supportive of at least a localized severe weather threat across this
particular region... With damaging winds the primary concern. Further
north across the niagara frontier and lower genesee valley... The
aforementioned developing expanding lake shadowing northeast of
lake erie should help to preclude much if any real additional severe
weather risk.

Speaking of which... Those areas within the expanding lake shadowing
will also see a short period of windy conditions out ahead of an
approaching cold front this afternoon... With wind gusts to 40-45 mph
likely. These will peak between the mid and late afternoon hours... Before
quickly diminishing through early evening following the passage of
the cold front.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage... Any convection will quickly
come to an end this evening... With cooler and mainly dry weather then
following for the remainder of tonight and Friday. The one possible
exception to the dry conditions will be found across the north country
later tonight and Friday morning... Where lingering cyclonic upslope
flow and low level moisture on the backside of low pressure over
new england could lead to a few additional spotty light showers.

Otherwise a general increase in low level moisture will result in
partly cloudy skies this evening giving way to increasing low
clouds overnight... Followed by a general west-to-east increase in
sunshine on Friday as high pressure and drier air build into our
region.

With respect to temperatures... Lows tonight will drop back into the
lower to mid 50s in the wake of the cold front... With highs on Friday
then generally ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Surface based ridging extending southeast from james bay will
consolidate over ny pa and maintain firm control across the lower
lakes Friday night. Look for quiet and dry weather across the region
with generally clear skies until late as an approaching warm front
introduces some mid and high level clouds. Lows by daybreak will
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

Saturday, the surface high just to our southeast will quickly exit
the area and off the nj coast during the early morning hours.

Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure over ontario canada will track
east while lifting its warm front into western ny. Isentropic lift,
supported by a 30 knot llj, and copious amounts of moisture being
transported northeast into the region (pw values ramping up to near
1.5 inches) will likely lead to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday morning. As the warm front continues to lift
northeast across the area into the north country, behind the front
there maybe a brief lull in storm activity across western ny before
the cold front arrives later in the day evening. Again, another
round of storms will be possible with the cold front but with the
front arriving so late in the day, instability won't be maximized
and waning to an extent. So the potential for widespread severe
weather at this point will be limited due to the timing of the cold
front.

Otherwise, with temperatures climbing into the 70s and a moisture
laden atmosphere it will likely be a humid day across the region.

Saturday night, low pressure over ne. Ontario canada will track
further nne into quebec with its trailing cold front slowly pushing
south and southeast into pa where it will stall overnight.

Meanwhile, a weak wave is forecast to track out of the midwest along
this stalled frontal boundary to our south on Sunday. Although,
various model guidance packages differ on the positioning of the
stalled front and the strength of the wave which is forecast to pass
to our south. For now, have kept chance pops in the forecast to
account for the uncertainty.

Sunday night, sprawling surface ridging over ontario canada will
track east with the axis of the ridge positioned over james bay and
bisecting western ny. This feature will introduce quiet and dry
weather across the forecast area into Monday. Any residual showers
or thunderstorm behind the departing wave will quickly end Sunday
evening with mainly clear skies developing overnight. Lows will fall
back mainly into the 50s under mainly clear skies by daybreak
Monday.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Increased ridging will begin on Monday over the eastern third of the
country. This will provide mostly rainfree conditions for Monday. As
the ridge strengthens over the southeast u.S., a similar scenario to
this weeks weather will take shape. The ridge over the southeast
u.S. Will cause waves of low pressure to trek northeast out of
western half of the country where a trough will be in place. Waves
of low pressure will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday across western and north
central ny.

Ahead of these areas of low pressure warming temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will bring highs across the area to the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A passing cold front late Wednesday early Thursday will
bring slightly below normal temperates to the area with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 1840z... A prefrontal trough and its attendant convective line
has pushed into central new york and weakened considerably since
earlier this morning. This will continue translating eastward across
the north country over the next few hours.

In the wake of the prefrontal trough... Some additional convective
redevelopment remains possible this afternoon into early this
evening from interior portions of the southern tier northeastward
across interior portions of the finger lakes out ahead of the
approaching cold front... With this conditional upon sufficient
destabilization in the wake of the prefrontal trough. Should this
occur... Such convection could be supportive of some locally strong
wind gusts to 40-50 knots.

Also out ahead of the cold front... A short period of rather windy
conditions with gusts to 35 knots or so is expected across the
niagara frontier over to rochester... With the winds then quickly
diminishing following the passage of the front late this afternoon
and this evening.

Following the passage of the cold front... Generally dry weather
will prevail tonight through Friday... With the possible exception
of a few spotty leftover light showers across portions of the
north country overnight and Friday morning. Meanwhile... Mainly
vfr flight conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR later
tonight as low level moisture increases across the region... Before
gradually improving back toVFR from west to east through the
course of Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
In the wake of a prefrontal trough... Southwest winds will increase
to 15 to 25 knots on lake erie and the western half of lake ontario
through this afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens and
passes to the north of lake ontario. A cold front will then cross
the lower great lakes late this afternoon and this evening... With a
period of moderately brisk westerly flow and attendant greater wave
action following in its wake. Small craft advisories remain in effect
to cover all of this... With gradually improving conditions then
expected later tonight and Friday as high pressure builds across the
lower great lakes.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front will cross lake ontario early this evening. Behind
this front moderately brisk westerly winds will produce higher
waves on lake ontario, with these combining with very high lake
levels to bring the likelihood of lakeshore flooding to the
shorelines of wayne... Northern cayuga... And oswego counties.

Winds and flooding concerns will then diminish on Friday as high
pressure builds into the area.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Friday for nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez020-
040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for
loz043.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Friday for loz044.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Ar
long term... Sw
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr
tides coastal flooding... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 8 mi45 min 59°F 1010 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi39 min W 14 G 16 55°F 55°F1010.8 hPa46°F
45142 - Port Colborne 20 mi57 min WSW 18 G 21 53°F 45°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (-0.6)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 25 mi45 min 68°F 1010 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi57 min WSW 24 G 26 61°F 1010.3 hPa (-0.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi57 min W 15 G 22 68°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.7)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 49 mi117 min W 16 G 18 60°F 45°F2 ft1008.5 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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SW15
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY17 mi63 minWSW 23 G 2810.00 miA Few Clouds and Windy66°F57°F73%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S10SW10SE4SE5S3S5S7S4S5SE7S5S6S8SW12
G18
SW10W15
G27
SW10SW12
G20
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G22
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G32
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1 day agoSW9S8S8S5S4S4S3SE4SE4S5CalmE4SE5E4E8E9E11
G18
E15E12E10E8E9E8E9
2 days agoSW10W10
G18
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G21
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NW9W6W6W6W6W6W7W4W6SW9SW11SW12NW13
G16
W5
G17
NW9NW13
G17
5SW11SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.