Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday January 24, 2019 12:04 AM CST (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:24PMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cst Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
.heavy freezing spray watch in effect from Thursday evening through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Freezing spray. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon becoming west 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Chance of flurries. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Heavy freezing spray through the day. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201901241100;;834371 FZUS53 KMKX 240506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-241100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240602 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1202 am cst Thu jan 24 2019

Update
Temperatures are in a free fall in some spots with the clear skies
and light winds, especially from madison westward. Clouds will
increase from the west later tonight and winds will also pick up a
little, so temps should eventually become a bit more steady. Could
see a little fog overnight, but it should be fairly localized and
shallow.

Aviation(06z tafs)
MVFR ceilings linger in the far northeast, but should clear out
over the next couple hours. Most other places will remain clear
until clouds move in later tonight from the west. These clouds are
in response to an approaching shortwave. This wave will bring MVFR
ceilings through the day... Possibly ifr at times. Also, light is
expected, especially northeast of madison where there could be
up to a half an inch. Most places will see at least some flurries.

Skies will gradually clear out this evening into tonight behind
the wave.

Winds will become gusty today as the wave and associated potent
cold front move through.

Prev discussion (issued 845 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019)
update...

the short range forecast remains on track. The lower stratus
continues to work east out of southern wisconsin. It should mostly
be out over the lake by midnight. There are some flurries falling
out of these clouds, but nothing to accumulate. A clear slot
between the exiting clouds and ahead of more clouds approaching
from the west will allow our temps to fall into the single digits
overnight. Once the next round of stratus moves in later tonight,
it will put a halt to any further temp drop. We're still just
looking at flurries or a small chance of light snow as the long
advertised arctic cold front moves in on Thursday. Only minor
adjustments to the forecast have been needed.

Marine...

nearshore waters...

northwest winds will continue to diminish for a time later tonight
into Thursday morning. Expect some freezing spray toward open
water tonight into Thursday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Gusts to 30
knots are expected at times. A small craft advisory is in effect
for this period. More gusty offshore winds are possible Sunday
into early next week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring the risk
for heavy freezing spray Thursday night into Friday night, and may
last into early next week. For now, a heavy freezing spray watch
is in effect for Thursday night into Friday night.

Open waters...

northwest winds will continue to weaken a bit tonight. Some
freezing spray is expected tonight into Thursday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday. Gusts to 30 knots are
expected at times. Building waves will occur during this period.

More gusty winds are possible at times Sunday into early next
week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring the risk
for heavy freezing spray Thursday night into Friday night, and
may last into early next week. For now, a heavy freezing spray
watch is in effect for Thursday night into Friday night.

Prev discussion... (issued 510 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019)
update...

the forecast is in good shape. We'll see much of the lower cloud
deck erode this evening, but more clouds ahead of the next clipper
will fill in later tonight. The clearing will be enough for temps
to drop pretty hard into the single digits. No changes.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

look for the lingering MVFR cloud deck to steadily erode this
evening. We should then haveVFR conditions from mid evening
through about 09z Thursday. After 09z, we'll see more MVFR cigs
develop in a stratus deck ahead of an approaching cold front.

Flurries are likely with these clouds, but no accumulation is
expected. The front will push through kmsn around 15-16z Thu and
the southeast TAF sites by around 18z Thursday.

Brisk gusty northwest winds in the wake of the front will cause
drifting snow Thursday afternoon, continuing into the evening.

Winds diminish later Thursday night.

The MVFR CIGS will also scatter out Thursday afternoon and drier
air arrives with those gusty northwest winds.

Prev discussion... (issued 325 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019)
short term...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

The strong shortwave trough has exited to the east over lower mi
with broken stratocumulus over the area. A weak sfc ridge and
clearing skies will build into SRN wi for tnt, although clouds
will begin to increase from west to east toward sunrise. Temps
will plummet into the single digits possibly approaching zero
before clouds increase.

A strong arctic front will then sweep across SRN wi from late
morning into the early afternoon, accompanied by flurries and wind
gusts of 30-35 mph. Drifting and some blowing snow will occur
with expected troubled areas on roadways. Will hold off on a
headline for the blowing snow for now, but it may become necessary
over the open areas of far southern and southwest wi. Temps will
fall into the single digits by late afternoon or early evening,
with wind chill temps falling to 5 below to 19 below zero by
sunset.

Thursday night through Friday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Very cold temperatures and bitter cold wind chills look like a
certainty for this period. Lows Thursday night and Friday night
will be in the 5 below to 15 below zero range, with wind chills of
20 to 32 below zero Thursday night, and 15 below to 25 below zero
Friday night. Highs Friday will be zero to 3 above zero, so wind
chills will remain in the 10 below to 20 below zero range. Thus, a
wind chill advisory will eventually be needed for perhaps this
entire period. Not expecting wind chills to drop to warning
criteria of 35 below zero or lower at this time.

There is a clipper system that passes by to the south Friday into
Friday evening. There is a decent amount of frontogenesis response
with this system, as well as some moisture in the dendrite growth
zone. Added more pops for the far south and southwest areas Friday
afternoon and evening. If it comes further north in later model
runs, it could bring some light snow accumulations.

Long term...

Saturday through Monday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Very cold temperatures will continue during this period, with wind
chills below zero each night. Values may reach 20 below zero at
times each night, especially in northern parts of the area.

A weak clipper system moves through the area for later Saturday
into Saturday evening, though there is some difference with qpf
amounts. Moisture is questionable, so kept this period dry for
now.

Models remain remarkably consistent with a strong clipper system
moving east southeast through the area Sunday night into Monday.

There looks to be rather robust frontogenesis response with this
system as it moves through the area, bringing fairly high qpf
amounts for this type of system. Deep moisture in the dendrite
growth zone would bring the potential for moderate to heavy snow
amounts across the area with this system. Certainly may impact the
Monday morning and evening commutes, so will have to watch and
message this system as we get closer to Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are indicating another shot of cold air advection after the
clipper system moves out of the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night. With fresh snow cover, this may bring another round of very
cold temperatures and bitter cold wind chills during this time.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)...

bkn015-025 stratocumulus for the remainder of this afternoon
becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear early this evening. Stratus
clouds 1-3 kft will return early Thu am spreading west to east
from 09z-15z. Flurries and the low CIGS will continue into the
early afternoon but then clear from west to east through the
afternoon as arctic air moves into the region. Wnwly wind gusts
of 30-35 mph with the arctic front Thu aft.

Marine...

nearshore waters...

north to northwest winds with some gusts to 20 knots will weaken
somewhat tonight. Freezing spray may develop tonight into
Thursday, with westerly winds lingering and cold temperatures.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Gusts to 30
knots are expected at times. A small craft advisory is in effect
for this period. More gusty offshore winds are possible Sunday
into early next week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring the risk
for heavy freezing spray Thursday night into Friday night, and may
last into early next week. For now, a heavy freezing spray watch
is in effect for Thursday night into Friday night.

Open waters...

north to northwest winds with some gusts to 30 knots will weaken
somewhat tonight. Some freezing spray may develop tonight into
Thursday, with westerly winds lingering.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday. Gusts to 30 knots are
expected at times. Building waves will occur during this period.

More gusty winds are possible at times Sunday into early next
week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring the risk
for heavy freezing spray Thursday night into Friday night, and
may last into early next week. For now, a heavy freezing spray
watch is in effect for Thursday night into Friday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray watch from Thursday evening through late
Friday night for lmz080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-
669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to noon cst Friday for
lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
tonight Thursday and aviation... Gehring
Thursday night through Wednesday and marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi65 min WNW 5.1 G 7 19°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi85 min WNW 7 G 13 20°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi85 min NW 4.1 G 6 21°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi72 minW 310.00 miOvercast20°F10°F68%1011.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi72 minW 410.00 miFair15°F10°F84%1010.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi73 minWNW 59.00 miLight Snow22°F12°F66%1010.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi70 minWNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy18°F10°F74%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13N12N15
G20
NE13N9N13N15N12N13N12NW11NW11NW11NW11
G18
W8W10NW7NW8NW5NW7W6NW6W3W4
1 day agoS15
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S11S11S7S7S6S6S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmN3N5N9
2 days agoNW9NW8NW8NW7NW5NW7NW7NW4W5SW8
G16
SW9SW5S5SE14SE12SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.