Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:48PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:11 AM CDT (16:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:27AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots late in the morning and early afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast early in the afternoon, then veering southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ646 Expires:201708182200;;577613 FZUS53 KMKX 181605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-182200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181439 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
939 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Skies started mostly sunny in the southwest early this morning,
but are quickly filling in with cumulus. On the flip side, mostly
cloudy skies in the northeast should scatter later morning into
the afternoon, likely resulting in afternoon cumulus across the
forecast area. May see a few showers west by late afternoon as a
wave approaches.

Should be enough Sun poking through this afternoon to reach
forecast highs in the upper 70s.

Marine
Still seeing a few gusts approaching small craft advisory criteria
this morning, so will let the advisory go until the scheduled
expiration of 1 pm.

Lighter winds are expected over the weekend.

Prev discussion (issued 610 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
update...

aviation(12z tafs)...

area of low clouds with ceilings varying between 2000 and 3000
feet are expected to gradually slide to the east of the area by
later this morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop by this afternoon. More middle to high clouds should move
into the area by this afternoon, though some sunshine should
still occur. Gusty west northwest winds are expected this morning,
before gradually weakening this afternoon.

May see some showers, and a thunderstorm or two, move southeast
through the area mainly tonight. Best chances will be near the
illinois border. Light winds are expected tonight, withVFR
category ceilings. Light fog may develop later tonight, though
there is some uncertainty if clouds hang around. Fog is expected
in the wisconsin river valley later tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 326 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Area of low clouds over most of the area early this morning is
expected to gradually shift to the east by later in the morning.

Rather tight pressure gradient will continue to bring gusty west
northwest winds to the area into this morning. The pressure
gradient will gradually weaken this afternoon, which should help
ease the gusts.

Diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by this afternoon. An area
of middle to high clouds will try to push into portions of the
area from the west as well, with the lead 500 mb vorticity
maximum. There should still be some sunshine that filters through,
so expect highs to reach the upper 70s in most areas.

Main 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to slide southeast across
the region this evening, then exit later tonight. It appears that
the best upward vertical motion from differential cyclonic
vorticity advection, as well as low level frontogenesis response,
will be just south of the area. This is where the best QPF from
the models is located.

Still, kept chance slight chance pops going for showers for
mainly tonight, highest in the south near the illinois border.

Kept small thunder mention as well, though area forecast soundings
look a bit overdone with surface dewpoints and subsequent mean
layer cape. May see light fog later tonight, but kept out of
forecast for now. Lows look to reach the upper 50s in most areas.

Long term...

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper trough should be east of southeast wi by Saturday
morning, so expecting a dry weekend with light winds and
increasing temps and humidity. Look for a lake breeze on Saturday.

Highs Sat will be around 80 and up to 82-85 on Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A front will slowly sag southeast through wi Monday and Tuesday.

There are weak ripples in zonal flow across the midwest, along
with the right entrance region of an upper jet. Any one of these
could trigger a thunderstorm complex either upstream of wi or over
wi. One scenario is a decaying MCS over southern wi Monday
morning, clearing up just in time for another round of showers and
storms developing on the nose of the low level jet in the late
afternoon evening. Another scenario would be an upstream complex
slowly tracking across central wi all day.

The GFS and canadian models are showing very high precipitable
water values over southern wi, in 1.75 to 2 inch range. Models
also show moderate CAPE and marginal shear. A few severe storms
look possible, but this could end up as mainly a heavy rain event.

Unfortunately, there is a pretty good chance of clouds hindering
the view of the solar eclipse in wi on Monday.

Conditions will remain favorable for scattered storms through
Tuesday evening until that front gets south of the il border.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Dry high pressure will bring pleasant weather to southern wi for
the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will be below
average.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

area of low clouds with ceilings varying between 1500 and 3500
feet are expected to gradually slide to the east of the area by
later this morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop by this afternoon. More middle to high clouds should move
into the area this afternoon, though some sunshine should still
occur. Gusty west northwest winds are expected this morning,
before gradually weakening this afternoon.

May see some showers and a thunderstorm or two move southeast
through the area mainly tonight. Best chances will be near the
illinois border. Light winds are expected tonight, withVFR
category ceilings. Light fog may develop later tonight, though
there is some uncertainty if clouds hang around. Fog is expected
in the wisconsin river valley later tonight.

Marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect until 18z today across the
nearshore waters of lake michigan. A rather tight pressure
gradient into this morning will continue to bring gusty west
northwest winds. Gusts to 25 knots are expected. The pressure
gradient will gradually weaken this afternoon. This will help
weaken the gusts below 22 knots. High waves will remain over the
open waters.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for
lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Saturday through Thursday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi71 min NW 11 G 17 69°F 1010.5 hPa (+1.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi21 min W 14 G 17 69°F
45013 27 mi92 min WNW 18 G 23 68°F 70°F1010.1 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi31 min NW 9.9 G 16 70°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi81 min NW 18 G 19 69°F 71°F4 ft1009.5 hPa (+1.7)
45174 41 mi21 min W 12 G 16 70°F 72°F2 ft62°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi31 min NW 9.9 G 14 69°F 1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi78 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast69°F60°F73%1010.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi78 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast69°F59°F70%1010.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi79 minNW 910.00 miOvercast69°F59°F70%1009.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi76 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast68°F62°F81%1010 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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W12W9W6W7W7W9NW8NW9NW7W11
1 day agoE5SE6E9E9E9E8NE8E7E6SE4SE5SE7SE4S8----------SW9SW7S7S7SW10
2 days agoNE8N12NE13NE12NE11NE10NE8NE8NE5NE5NE3NE6Calm--CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmNE4E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.