Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday January 21, 2018 12:10 PM CST (18:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 10:29PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Sun Jan 21 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am cst Monday...
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Patchy fog late in the morning and early afternoon. Areas of fog late in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle through the day. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Areas of fog. Rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon veering south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then veering northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight, then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201801212300;;783348 FZUS53 KMKX 211705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 211555
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
955 am cst Sun jan 21 2018

Update
Greatest concern for this morning remains areas of dense fog and
freezing fog. Expanded the dense fog advisory into sheboygan
county where the visibility has dropped over the past few hours.

The lowest visibilities remain generally north of the i-94
corridor at this time, but kept the counties farther south in the
advisory for now, due to patchy low visibilities. The greatest
concern for freezing fog and slick spots remains across our north
(generally north of i-94), so motorists should exercise caution
in these areas.

Marine
Issued a dense fog advisory for the nearshore waters into
tomorrow morning. Visibilities of 1 mile or less are expected, so
mariners should exercise caution. Otherwise, a small craft
advisorywill likely be needed for a time on Monday into
Wednesday.

Prev discussion (issued 653 am cst Sun jan 21 2018)
update...

fog has become dense and widespread enough for an advisory across
the central portion of the cwa. For now, took the expiration time
to 18z, but it's possible that it may need to be extended with
time, as it's not clear what will cause conditions to improve
later this morning.

Also of note is the continued potential for slick spots on area
roadways where fog is dense and temperatures are below freezing.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

flight conditions have fallen into the ifr range in most
locations, and should remain there today. Dips into lifr are
probable at times.

Later tonight, rain and drizzle will become more widespread, and
fog will continue. Most model guidance takes the region well into
lifr range, but confidence is low on how things will unfold. For
now, generally kept sites in the lower ranges of ifr, but further
updates to take things into lifr are possible.

The one exception at this point is kmke, with vis dropping to 1 2
sm this evening and tonight. The main concern at kmke will be fog
moving in off the lake as winds turn easterly. This could
potentially result in even lower flight conditions, so updates are
likely as the day GOES on.

Winds will remain light and variable into this afternoon, before
becoming easterly this evening and through the day Monday.

Prev discussion... (issued 307 am cst Sun jan 21 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

challenging short term forecast at this hour, with the initial
focus being on fog freezing fog potential this morning. Stratus
has been slow to make its way north into the forecast area, and we
have seen some radiation fog develop where skies have remained
clear. As more abundant cloud cover moves in, fog may briefly
lift, but visibility is likely to eventually come back down as
stratus build-down takes place.

Short term temperatures are also a challenge, with the freezing
line currently situated from roughly mineral point to whitewater
to waukesha, and then on north to the port washington area. North
of this line, and dense fog that develops would have the
potential of depositing a thin layer of ice on untreated road
surfaces, leading to the potential for a few slick spots. Thus
far, most of the denser fog has been confined to areas above
freezing, but it's certainly plausible that we see some areas of
freezing fog develop before sunrise.

Temperatures will slowly rise through the day today, reaching the
mid 30s by this afternoon as better warm air advection takes hold.

This WAA will be associated with considerable low level moisture
advection as well, with stratus, fog and drizzle becoming more
widespread this morning and early afternoon, before eventually
transitioning to light rain showers late this afternoon into this
evening. By the time the more substantial precipitation moves in,
temperatures should generally be above freezing.

Rain will then become rather widespread and somewhat heavier
overnight tonight, and with model guidance suggesting several
hundred j kg of elevated cape, a few thunderstorms are possible
south of i-94 us 18.

Long term...

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The center of the occluded surface low will track into southern wi
by late Monday afternoon. Widespread showers (and perhaps some
thunder from i-94 south) are expected through most of the day. As
the low moves into far south and southeast wi, expect showers to
diminish with the dry slot. More showers and storms are possible
along the occluded front in far southeast wi Monday evening. Total
rainfall with this system should be around an inch. Rivers are
low, but many are frozen, so this rain could help thaw them a
little. We will need to be on the lookout for ice jams.

Toward the dells, the temperature gradient and rain snow line
will be rather tight. I expect the snow to hold off for the mkx
forecast area until early evening.

Dry air wrapping into the mid levels of the system on the
northwest side of the low could cause a loss of ice crystals and
therefore a period of freezing drizzle (northwest of madison and
fond du lac) Monday night. We will change back over to snow as the
system slides east of the area. Snowfall amounts will still be
light with around an inch accumulation, perhaps up to 3 at the
most by Tuesday morning. That could lead to a slippery commute.

We could see some lingering flurries or light snow showers into
late Tue morning, but overall it looks like we'll dry out fairly
quickly on the back side of this system. Temps will dip into the
teens Tue night.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

There is a weak signal for a shortwave to bring some light snow to
portions of wi on wed, but no mention of it in the forecast yet.

Wed highs will only be in the 20s, but warmer air will spread back
in for later in the week. Highs by Friday should be in the 40s.

Next weekend... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another amplified upper trough crossing the country could bring
rain or perhaps a rain snow mix to southern wi Friday night into
Saturday. There may be light snow flurries on the back side that
could get us on Sunday. There is good agreement between the gfs,
ecmwf, and even the canadian models at this time.

Marine...

reduced visibilities are expected across the nearshore waters
through tonight, and it's possible that a dense fog advisory may
eventually be needed.

Light winds today will become easterly tonight, with waves
building into Monday morning. Small craft advisory is likely to be
needed from Monday into Wednesday, with initial high waves
associated with easterly winds tonight and Monday giving way to
gusty northwest winds early Tuesday morning. Gusts may approach
gale-force early Tuesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for wiz046-047-051-052-
056>059-063>065-068-069.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Monday for lmz643>646.

Update... Spm
today tonight and aviation marine... Cronce
Monday through Saturday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi70 min Calm G 0 34°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi20 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 34°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi30 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi30 min S 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi17 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist38°F35°F89%1015.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi17 minNE 44.00 miFog/Mist39°F35°F86%1014.5 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi18 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist38°F36°F93%1015 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi15 minENE 43.00 miFog/Mist40°F37°F89%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W4SW4SW5SW4SW6SW4SW3SW4SW7SW5SW5S4SW4S3S5S4S3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW15
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2 days agoSW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.