Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:58PM Sunday October 22, 2017 5:31 PM CDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots backing northwest late in the evening, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon veering west late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then backing west after midnight becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers through around midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201710230400;;256184 FZUS53 KMKX 222205 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 505 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-230400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222026
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
325 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Tonight and Monday - forecast confidence Medium.

Showers have increased in areal coverage this afternoon, with some
strong mid level frontogenesis and differential cyclonic vorticity
advection from approaching 500 mb shortwave trough.

Mesoscale models not picking up well on this trend. Will adjust to
high pops across the area to account for this activity.

These showers should slowly taper off from west to east into this
evening, as the 500 mb shortwave trough moves through. Dry air
moving into the area, with cold air advection behind the front, will
contribute to help end the showers. These showers may hang on later
tonight in far southeast wisconsin, as some 850 mb to 700 mb
frontogenesis lingers in that area. Some uncertainty here, so left
small pops in this area for now later tonight.

Skies should gradually clear out over most of the area later this
evening and overnight. The far southeast may have clouds and some
showers linger there. Lows should drop into the lower to middle 40s,
with the cooler airmass in place.

A secondary cold front will push east through the area Monday. A
digging 500 mb trough will slide toward the area from the northwest
as well. Various vorticity maxima rotating around the trough should
help bring more clouds and possibly some showers during the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60 are expected.

Monday night through Wednesday - forecast confidence Medium.

Unsettled, cool weather can be expected for much of this period.

Amplifying long wave trof over the western great lakes will absorb
remnants of SRN ms valley cutoff low Monday night as it pinwheels
northward into the great lakes. End result will be reinensification
of cutoff low pressure over the central great lakes. Deeper moisture
will still be in place in the vicinity of the upper low. Layer q-
vector convergence in the 5 to 10 unit range associated with mid-
level ripples rotating around the parent low during this period.

Scattered to numerous -shra should affect much of the CWA as upper
low strengthens over the central great lakes, with higher liklihood
in the east.

Upper low gets nudged northward by incoming upstream short wave in
fast northwest steering flow. This has the look of a "clipper" type
system which moves very quickly southeast from southern canada
across the upper midwest western great lakes. All short term
guidance carries this upper wave across central and southern wi
between 09z and 18z Wednesday. GFS is the most aggressive with low
level warm air advection ahead of this feature while NAM is showing
very little advection and less atmospheric moisture. ECMWF leaning
toward stronger GFS with a brief period of stronger layer q-vector
convergence moving across southern wi centered at 12z Wed but with
less column moisture. Also brief burst of layer frontogenetical
forcing accompanying upper level synoptic forcing. Cold air will be
firmly entrenched in the area by late Tuesday night with temps
likely to be in the 30s. For now wl have chance pops for a period
of light rain and light snow affecting southern wi late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. With warm pavement temps, not
expecting any accumulation on roads, but may briefly lower
visibilities and have impact on Wednesday morning commute. Due to
uncertainty at this time, wl hold off on mentioning in hwo.

Also temps expected to fall into the mid 30s Tuesday night before
clouds increase late resulting in a possibility of frost
development. However clouds and boundary layer mixing may very well
prevent significant frost from developing.

Extended period
Wednesday night through Sunday - forecast confidence... Low to
medium.

Quiet conditions expected to start off between periods of long wave
troffing across the upper midwest and great lakes. Brief period of
short wave ridging will result in lighter boundary layer winds, with
surface winds likely 5 knots or lower. Cold low level temps in
place and overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid 30s many
locations. However uncertainty remains regarding frost formation
due to likely increasing mid-high clouds expected over the area due
to upstream warm air advection. For now, wl mention possibility in
hazardous weather outlook.

Medium range guidance in better agreement on timing and placement of
another round of amplifying long wave troffing over the plains in
the late Thursday Thursday night time period. Extended guidance
diverges on timing of eastward progression of upper trof and surface
low pressure. 00z GFS gem carry upper low into the western great
lakes and wi by Thursday night, and then upper low remains over the
region through the weekend. 00z ECMWF slower with eastward
progression, and keeps southern wi warmer through Friday, with
colder air surging in for the weekend. Limited initial column
moisture with this sytem will retard shower chances, but will
increase during the weekend as the upper low spins over the great
lakes. The coldest air of the season will settle in for the weekend
increasing the liklihood of frost and freezing temperatures.

Gfs 500h standardized anomolies show large negative anomoly of over
200 meters over the great lakes at 00z 30 so unseasonably cold air
likely to persist into early next week. By 00z 02, the large
negative anomoly has shifted northeast into southern canada so
indication are for temperatures returning to seasonal levels later
in the week.

Aviation(21z tafs) Showers have increased in areal coverage this
afternoon, and should become more scattered into the evening hours.

MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at times with the
showers. The showers should diminish from west to east into early
this evening. They may linger later tonight in far southeast
wisconsin, near the kenosha area. Some uncertainty here with these
showers lingering.

Clouds should clear out from west to east across the area later this
evening and overnight, though may linger in far southeast wisconsin.

Light winds are expected. Drier and colder air moving into the area
should prevent fog formation later tonight.

Another cold front is expected to move east through the area on
Monday, light southwest winds should veer west later in the day
behind the front. Some showers may develop during the afternoon, as
clouds spread over the area. ExpectingVFR conditions at this time
for Monday.

Marine
Small craft advisory has been extended until 7 pm cdt this evening
across the nearshore waters of lake michigan. Gusty northwest winds
behind the departing cold front should linger for another few hours,
especially south of north point lighthouse. The pressure gradient
will relax into this evening. This should allow these winds to
weaken. Subsequent waves of 3 to 6 feet should also gradually
subside by early evening.

Gusty northwest winds are expected to develop across the nearshore
waters Monday night and linger into Wednesday morning. This is in
response to a tight pressure gradient developing over the region.

Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are possible during this time, with 35 knot
gales not out of the question Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Waves of 3 to 5 feet are possible toward the open waters of lake
michigan, higher over the open waters. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed for Monday night into Wednesday morning.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory lmz643>646 until 7 pm this evening.

Tonight and Monday aviation marine... Wood
Monday night through Sunday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi31 min N 11 G 14 51°F 1016.6 hPa (+3.1)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi41 min NNW 6 G 8 51°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi51 min N 8.9 G 12 51°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi41 min N 25 G 29 55°F 60°F5 ft1015 hPa (+2.3)
45174 41 mi21 min N 18 G 23 53°F 57°F5 ft51°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi38 minN 9 G 142.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F50°F96%1017.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi38 minN 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1016.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi39 minN 53.00 miRain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1016.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi36 minNNW 9 G 172.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F50°F96%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10S8S10S11S9S10S10S9S6S9S10S10S7S10S8S9S8S6S7NW11
G19
N10NW7N9
G14
1 day agoS5S5S8S9S9S7S9S10
G17
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SW9
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S6S7S7S9S11SE11S11S13S15S11
G21
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2 days agoS7S6S5S6S6S5S5S6S6S6S5S3S6SW6SW7SW9SW5SW9SW9S8SE9
G16
S10SE7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.