Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:24PM Thursday November 22, 2018 4:21 AM CST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through late Friday night...
Early this morning..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Friday..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
LMZ646 Expires:201811222200;;674130 FZUS53 KMKX 220905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Thu Nov 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-222200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 220852
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
250 am cst Thu nov 22 2018

Short term
Today - confidence... Medium.

Mid level ridge axis shifts to the mississippi river valley.

Meanwhile surface high will shift further east and be across the
eastern lakes region by days end. Low level WAA regime will be in
place. Impressive 850 millibar thermal packing with strong waa
signal. Much of this lift will be above better moisture signal on
bufkit. However, will retain small chance of light drizzle or
freezing drizzle in the northeast CWA but confidence is quite low on
this. Low level rh progs showing cloud cover across eastern iowa
early this morning with additional development having increased
there since 08z or so. Southeast winds will be on the increase as
pressure gradient starts to tighten up.

Tonight - confidence... Medium mid level ridge axis shifts to the
east, meanwhile 925 thermal advection ramps up. Low level rh
progs MOS suggest cloud deck will get advected north of the CWA with
time. Expecting non-diurnal temp trend as south winds are sustained
with push of milder airmass in the low levels.

Friday through Saturday night... Forecast confidence - medium to
high.

Strong low level southerly winds will be ongoing at the start of the
period, which will continue to pump higher moisture and warmer air
into the area. 925h temps rise to 3 to 6c on Friday, before light
rain and showers spread into the area during the afternoon and
evening. Short term guidance remain in good agreement on timing and
strength of sharpening mid-level trof tracking east across the upper
midwest on Friday and Saturday. Upper trof takes on a negative tilt
as it moves through the western great lakes Friday night and
Saturday, hence light rain should linger into Saturday morning.

Atmosphere cools as precip begins Friday evening most areas, but wet
bulb temperature in the low levels remain around +3 degrees, so
liquid precipitation expected. However can not rule out a few snow
pellets mixing in with the rain, especially in the northern areas.

Pavement temperature will have warmed into the 40s before precip
onset on Friday. Two meter temps should cool into the mid to upper
30s Friday with precip onset. Also sub-surface temps remain at or
just above freezing through an 8" depth so no freezing liquid issues
expected at this time Friday night.

Lingering rain should taper off during the day Saturday. Light snow
chances will increase Saturday night ahead of next system
strengthening in the central plains.

Long term
Sunday through Wednesday night... Forecast confidence - medium.

Medium range consensus continues to increase and confidence
continues to grow for potential significant winter weather event to
affect southern wi Sunday into Sunday night. Both GFS and gem are
showing phasing of southern stream amplifying short wave trof with
canadian low pressure north of lake superior. ECMWF not showing as
much phasing but now slower as southern stream short wave continues
to amplify as it passes just south of wi during this period.

Guidance is also trending colder with more of a snow threat over
more of southern wi Sunday into Sunday night. Latest 36 hour qpf
from 12z Sun to 00z Tue from medium range guidance is showing
amounts anywhere from one quarter inch in the northwest CWA to over
an inch in the southeast. Emc GEFS qpf plume ranges anywhere from a
couple hundredths to just under 2", with the mean around 0.8". Wpc
not bullish on QPF for Sunday and Sunday night at this point due to
uncertainty. Meanwhile, model certainty QPF based on available
computer guidance shows a 50% range from 4 tenths in the northwest
to 9 tenths in the southeast. All medium range guidance showing
deepening surface low pressure moving from central or southern il
toward lower michigan later Sunday and Sunday night. This would also
result in a tightening pressure gradient and gusty north to
northeast winds with potential of strong wind gusts exacerbating
winter situation, in addition to potential lake enhancement. At this
point, heaviest QPF and snowfall would be in east central into
southeast wi. Snow liquid ratios should be higher at the onset
around 8 to 1, cooling to around climatological normal (13 to 1)
toward end of event. Needless to say, this system may have
significant impacts on end of holiday travel conditions, with
impacts continuing into the Monday morning commute. Will heighten
awareness in hwo and sps. All interests planning travel will need to
keep a close eye on the situation for Sunday and Sunday night.

After winds and potential blowing snow wind down on Monday, looks
cold and quiet for Tuesday into Wednesday. A clipper-type system
may return light snow to the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

Temps to remain below normal.

Aviation(09z tafs) Surface high pressure across lower
michigan will shift further east into the eastern lakes region
today. Low level warm air advection will be prevalent through
tonight. A mostlyVFR cloud deck may lower as some moistening is
proggd in the soundings. Seeing development there since about 08z
which has lowered to MVFR levels. A small chance of freezing drizzle
or drizzle exists in the northeast CWA today but confidence in
coverage and occurrence is on the low side. Whatever cloud deck
remains this evening is expected to shift north of SRN wi as low
level baroclinic zone lifts further north with strengthening
southerly wind flow ahead of the next weather rain maker for later
Friday into Friday night.

Marine A windy pattern set up with high wave action expected.

Tight pressure gradient sets up between a retreating high pressure
system and approaching trough from the plains. Southeast winds will
lead to small craft conditions for the nearshore areas beginning
today while low level southerly speed MAX will result in gale force
winds evolving Friday through Friday night. For now gale watch has
been maintained with an eventual upgrade to a warning looking likely.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868
gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
for lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-87.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Thursday to 6 am cst Saturday
for lmz643>646.

Today and tonight aviation marine... Pc
Friday through Wednesday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi22 min E 14 G 17 32°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.4)
45187 18 mi22 min 38°F 41°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi32 min E 13 G 17 31°F
45186 26 mi22 min ESE 14 34°F 40°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi42 min ESE 11 G 14 33°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi32 min E 12 G 16 29°F 44°F3 ft1031.2 hPa (+0.0)21°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi42 min SE 11 G 15 31°F 1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
SW5
W6
W3
NW9
G13
N9
G12
N8
G13
N14
G18
N10
G17
N10
G14
NE10
G13
NE9
G14
NE10
G13
NE8
G11
N8
G11
NE10
G14
E9
G15
E9
E6
G11
E7
G11
E8
1 day
ago
NW8
G13
W5
G12
W7
G12
W5
G9
W6
G10
NW6
G10
W4
G10
W4
G8
SW8
G12
SW7
G13
SW8
G15
SW10
G15
SW10
G15
SW10
G16
SW8
G16
SW10
G20
SW8
G15
SW10
G15
SW8
G11
SW5
G9
SW5
G8
2 days
ago
SW4
SW4
G7
S6
S9
S8
G11
SW7
G10
SW7
SW7
G10
SW6
G10
SW6
G11
SW5
G8
SW3
G8
SW5
G9
SW5
G8
SW3
G6
SW2
G5
W1
NW4
NW9
G13
W7
G13
NW6
G10
W6
G12
W8
G11
W6
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi29 minE 1110.00 miOvercast31°F21°F67%1031 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi29 minE 1010.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1030.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi30 minESE 910.00 miOvercast31°F19°F64%1030.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi27 minE 810.00 miOvercast32°F21°F66%1030.4 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrNW12
G17
N6NW8N13
G21
NW8N9N10N12N13NE10NE10NE9NE6NE10NE10NE10NE9NE9E10E11E9E9E11E11
1 day agoNW9NW6NW5W7NW6NW7W9SW12
G18
SW11
G21
W12
G22
SW16
G24
SW15
G26
W8
G18
W13
G24
SW17
G28
W14
G23
W12
G22
W15
G27
W18
G26
W10
G19
W7
G16
W6NW6NW8
2 days agoSW3SW7SW7SW8SW9SW9W10W10W95W7NW5NW3NW6N8NW10NW8NW6NW7NW7NW9N12
G19
NW8NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.