Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:35PM Monday June 26, 2017 12:19 PM CDT (17:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 921 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers early in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing south late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201706262230;;851258 FZUS53 KMKX 261421 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 921 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-262230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 261434 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
934 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Update
Clouds are beginning to move in from the north as well, with
cumulus starting to pop elsewhere. Still expecting partly to
mostly cloudy skies by afternoon, especially across the northeast
half of the forecast area. No change to the shower chances for the
afternoon, with the northeast having the better chance. Temps are
warming at a good pace this morning, but should level off as
clouds increase.

Marine
Winds are picking up this morning and will continue to do so into
late morning. The timing of the small craft advisory still looks
good into early evening.

After lighter winds Tuesday, advisory conditions are likely to
return Wednesday under gusty southerly winds.

Prev discussion (issued 640 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017)
update...

aviation(12z tafs)...

gusty northwest winds are expected to develop by middle to late
morning, lingering into early evening before weakening. Frequent
gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected. Winds will weaken tonight,
as high pressure passes by to the southwest and south.

Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds are expected to move into
the area later this morning and linger into early this evening.

The most sky cover will be toward the sheboygan area, with the
lowest southwest of madison. Any ceilings should be above 3000
feet. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight.

Chances for showers are forecast for mainly this afternoon across
the area, with the best chances toward the sheboygan area.

Vicinity shower wording will linger in tafs this afternoon. There
are small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, but any
development should be isolated at best.

Prev discussion... (issued 402 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017)
today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

The main 500 mb shortwave trough will slide southeast from the
western upper peninsula of michigan to central lower michigan
today. There appears to be good differential cyclonic vorticity
advection across the area later this morning and this afternoon
with this feature.

Area forecast soundings are showing weak mean layer cape
developing this afternoon, though not as much as in the past two
afternoons. Given that some of the models are not showing much if
any instability above the -10 degree celsius level, thunder may
not occur. For now, will continue chance pops for showers and
small chances for thunder for mainly this afternoon across the
area, with the highest pops in the northeast counties.

Another cool day is expected, with broken to overcast skies
moving into the northeast counties limiting highs to the lower
60s. Middle to upper 60s are expected elsewhere, with more
scattered to broken sky cover. Gusty northwest winds are expected,
highest in the eastern areas near lake michigan.

High pressure passing by to the southwest and south tonight will
bring quiet weather, weakening winds and clearing skies to the
area. Lows will be cool once again, mainly in the upper 40s.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Persistent upper troughing finally slides east into new england,
with building heights progressing from the western great lakes into
the ohio valley. This will support surface high pressure as it
slides southeast from southern minnesota northern iowa towards the
central appalachians by Tuesday night. Anticyclonic flow around the
high will bring southerly winds and some modest warm advection
during the afternoon and evening, allowing high temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s. Still expecting some clouds as mid to
high level moisture streams in ahead of an approaching wave over the
great plains.

Wednesday and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid-level wave will progress from the northern central great
plains into the western great lakes. The wave will escort a
gradually filling surface cyclone as it tracks from the western
dakotas into northern wisconsin. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected, and the primary forecast concern for this period is the
risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.

The synoptic picture hasn't changed much from yesterday, with
southern stream energy forecast to advance from the four corners
region into the mid missouri valley. Northern stream energy will
concurrently feed southeast from the pacific northwest into the
central great plains. As the mid-level wave arrives, a 70 to 90 knot
upper speed MAX should develop northeastward from iowa into
central southern wisconsin by Wednesday night. This will serve to
both increase mid upper tropospheric wind speeds, and to provide a
forcing source for large-scale ascent (via upper divergence and
increasing differential cyclonic vorticity advection from the
arriving wave).

A warm front attendant to the surface low should lift north during
the morning hours, resulting in a warm and humid environment
characterized by dewpoints well into the 60s. Thereafter, showers
and thunderstorms should develop in at least a few batches. This
results in a somewhat complex convective scenario, where mesoscale
details are key to how things unfold. Current deterministic model
output suggests one round reaching the area during the late morning
to afternoon hours. These storms would occur ahead of the better
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter spaces (i.E. Before the
best CAPE and shear have arrived), and would likely be of the sub-
severe variety. The second round of scattered storms should
arrive during the evening, and these stand the better shot at
becoming severe. Provided the atmosphere isn't already worked over
from the first round, at least modest instability would be
present, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 j kg range. Deep layer
shear would also be on the increase owing to both the speed max
aloft and to a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Around 35 to 45
knots of west to southwesterly deep layer shear will be present
Wednesday evening, before becoming more unidirectional and
westerly later Wednesday night. This near-storm environment would
be supportive of all modes of severe weather. However, we'll need
to see exactly how worked over things are after the first round
of showers and storms. The day 3 slight risk from the storm
prediction center seems prudent given the factors outlined above.

Heavy rainfall also remains a concern with good precipitation
efficiency and precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. mbe
velocity vectors are progressive, on the order of 20 to 25 knots,
but we'll have to keep an eye out for any localized hydro
concerns. Keep up with this evolving forecast.

The cold front should finally slide south into northern illinois by
Thursday morning, ending the rain chances for southern wisconsin.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid-level trough will escort a surface wave as it tracks northeast
along the stalled frontal zone. This will bring renewed shower and
thunderstorm chances on Friday, as the front remains just to our
south. Another chance for showers may occur on Saturday night, with
model disagreement regarding rain chances on Sunday. Temperatures
will remain near, to perhaps slightly below, seasonal averages.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

gusty northwest winds are expected to develop by middle to late
morning, lingering into early evening before weakening. Frequent
gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected. Winds will weaken tonight,
as high pressure passes by to the southwest and south.

Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds are expected to move into
the area later this morning and linger into early this evening.

The most sky cover will be toward the sheboygan area, with the
lowest southwest of madison. Any ceilings should be above 3000
feet. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight.

Chances for showers are forecast for mainly this afternoon across
the area, with the best chances toward the sheboygan area.

Vicinity shower wording will linger in tafs this afternoon. There
are small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, but any
development should be isolated at best.

Marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect from middle morning into the
early evening hours across the nearshore waters of lake michigan.

Gusty northwest winds are expected during this period, with good
low level mixing. Frequent gusts to around 25 knots are expected.

Any high waves will remain over the open waters of lake michigan.

Winds will weaken tonight, as high pressure passes by to the
southwest and south.

Gusty south winds and resultant waves may reach small craft
advisory levels Wednesday into Wednesday night. A tight pressure
gradient develops over the region during this time, with warmer
and more humid air moving in.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Tuesday through Sunday... Spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi80 min W 16 G 24 65°F 1018.3 hPa (-0.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi30 min WNW 13 G 20 63°F
45013 27 mi101 min WNW 16 G 18 61°F 57°F1017.9 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi40 min WNW 11 G 22 65°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi90 min WNW 12 G 16 60°F 61°F2 ft1018.4 hPa (+0.0)49°F
45174 41 mi30 min WNW 16 G 19 65°F 64°F1 ft49°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi40 min WNW 14 G 20 64°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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-12
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Last
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W8
G16
W5
G11
W6
G12
W6
G13
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G12
W5
G14
SW9
G15
W8
G14
W7
G13
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G9
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W2
S4
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G6
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1 day
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SW8
G14
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G16
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G17
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G18
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G18
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G12
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G7
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G11
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G13
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G9
W3
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G8
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G13
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2 days
ago
N5
G8
N6
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NE5
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G8
SE5
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G11
W6
G12
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G11
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G6
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W4
G13
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi27 minW 18 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy68°F43°F40%1018.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi27 minWNW 15 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F45°F45%1018.1 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi28 minW 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F42°F41%1017.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi25 minW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F45°F45%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
G20
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NW13
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G16
NW11
G20
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W10
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W13
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W6W6W5W4W4W4W4W4W4W6W8W86W13
G21
W18
G27
1 day agoW11
G22
NW15
G22
W11W8
G16
NW12
G17
W13
G20
W9
G17
NW6NW7NW5
G15
SW5W5W8W7W56W6W6W9W11
G14
W9W8
G17
W12
G24
W13
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2 days agoNW10
G21
NW7NW10NW13W9W9
G16
NW9NW9NW8NW6W5W5W5W5W6W7W7W8W9
G16
NW13W11
G17
W11W12
G20
W10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.