Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:33PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:15 PM CDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering northeast after midnight. Patchy fog through around midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Rain showers likely through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201806182200;;732515 FZUS53 KMKX 181605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-182200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181515 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1015 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018

Update
The main forecast challenge today is pinning down the timing and
placement of thunderstorm development. There is a boundary across
the forecast area from around lone rock to madison to
milwaukee... The leftover outflow boundary from previous storms.

Also... The cold front sits farther to the north. The leftover
boundary could serve as a focus point for later storm development,
but right now it looks like it's more likely storms will fire
along the front. Based on this and the meso models that are
handling the current situation the best, think that storms will go
up north of madison and milwaukee early this afternoon, with the
line then sagging southward through late afternoon as the front
progresses.

There remains a chance that some of the storms will become severe
this afternoon, but the bigger threat may be heavy rainfall,
especially if the line hangs up for a time.

Marine
Some fog is lingering in the sheboygan area this morning. A cold
front will bring a wind shift and showers storms to the area by
early afternoon, which will help to improve visibilities. Storms
will then be possible at times through Tuesday night.

Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to stay below small craft
advisory levels through the week.

Prev discussion (issued 615 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018)
update... Showers and a few t-storms will continue to affect the
northern areas next several hours. More isolated activity is then
expected later this morning with more numerous showers and storms
returning this afternoon. Will need to watch temperatures and heat
indices closely as nighttime microphysics satellite enhancement
showing thin spots across southern wi. Temperatures currently in
the mid 70s to around 80 in rain free areas of the south.

Aviation(12z tafs)... Showers and storms across northern CWA will
become more isolated this morning, but then reinvigorate this
afternoon and evening. A passing cold front will act as the focus
for the aftn eve activity with the potential for a period of lower
clouds in the wake of the front.

Prev discussion... (issued 328 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018)
today and tonight... Forecast confidence - medium to high.

Expect showers and t-storms over far northern CWA to become more
scattered this morning as enhanced forcing from right exit region of
upper jet shifts off to the east, as well as weakening low level
jet. Upper level jet reinvigorates this afternoon and evening
across northern great lakes, resulting in enhanced lift returning.

In addition, upstream mid-level wave over the NE ks area moves
northeast along upper level ridge and crosses southern central wi
this afternoon and evening. During this period, upstream cold front
over northern wi will sag southward across southern wi, exiting
the far south in the late aftn early eve.

Precipitable water remains incredibly high for mid-june, in the 2-
2.5" range, which is approaching 3 standard deviations. These
values are off the charts of the climate forecast system reanalysis
with no return interval in the climate record. Corfidi vectors
decrease to 5 to 15 knots this aftn as frontal boundary slips
through while low level theta-e ridge builds into southern wi. Would
be issuing a flash flood watch had more widespread heavy rainfall
occurred over the weekend. Deep warm cloud depth and impressive
strength of low level moisture convergence aligned with 850-300mb
flow also highlight heavy rain potential this aftn eve. Wl reissue
hydrologic outlook and continue to focus on heavy rain threat in
sitrep and hwo.

Best chance for severe will be in southern CWA this
afternoon evening where surface based CAPE may climb to around 2k
joules. However bulk shear remains less than 25 knots, so not a
great setup. Hence a few high winds large hail events possible, but
nothing widespread.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence - medium.

Deep moisture slow to sag southward and remains over southern wi
into Tuesday night. Second stronger mid-level short wave crossing
the area wl likely bring more scattered convection to the area later
tue into Tuesday night. Southern wi also remains in the elevated
baroclinic zone during this period, even through surface front will
have sagged into northern il. Drier conditions looking more likely
for Wednesday.

Extended period...

Wednesday night through Monday... Forecast confidence -
medium.

Medium range guidance in reasonable agreement on low pressure
passing to the south of the area late in the week into the weekend,
returning shower and t-storms chances to the area. Temperatures
will remain more seasonable during the period.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Isolated to scattered t-storms will affect the
area this morning and then become more widespread this afternoon and
evening as cold front sags across southern wi. A few storms may
produce strong winds and large hail. Low level east to northeast
winds in the wake of the front and the lingering moist air may bring
lower ceilings to the area later tonight.

Marine... Mariners should expect more widespread thunderstorms
to affect nearshore waters this afternoon and tonight as cold front
sags southward across the area. Until then, more isolated to
scattered activity is expected, especially north of north point
light. Warm, moist air flowing across the cooler near shore waters
may result in some patchy fog developing, especially as the
gustiness subsides ahead of approaching front. Cold front is
expected to sag southward over the near shore waters between 21z and
01z. Few gusts to 25 knots may accompany rapid wind shift to the
northeast, but should only last 1-2 hours. Will hold off on issuing
small craft advisory for now. Waves are expected to remain below 5
feet.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... mbk
Tuesday through Sunday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi75 min W 9.9 G 17 87°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi25 min WSW 9.9 G 13 86°F
45013 27 mi68 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 55°F1 ft1013.2 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi35 min WSW 11 G 19 87°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi85 min SSW 12 G 14 65°F 59°F1 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.0)63°F
45174 41 mi145 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 65°F1 ft72°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi35 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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S8
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NE6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi22 minSW 10 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds89°F73°F61%1013.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi22 minWSW 12 G 1810.00 miFair88°F75°F68%1013.1 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi23 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F73°F58%1012.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi20 minWSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9
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SW9SE8SW10
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SW7SW8SW8SW9SW9SW10SW9SW9W7SW9SW7SW10SW9W12
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1 day agoS8
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SE7SE9S7SE10S9S6S4S5S12N4SE3CalmSW4SW6SW7SW6SW8SW9SW6SW6W7
G16
SW10SW8
2 days agoSE6SE8E8SE8SE7
G16
E10SE8S7S6S7S4N13
G25
CalmSW9SW11
G20
SW12N4CalmS5CalmNE6S8S9S9
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.