Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:12PM Sunday March 26, 2017 4:10 AM CDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 321 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am cdt this morning...
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Fog in the morning and patchy fog afternoon. Rain in the morning. Rain likely early in the afternoon, then chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of rain through around midnight. Areas of fog through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Slight chance of rain in the morning. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of rain through around midnight, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201703261615;;095934 FZUS53 KMKX 260821 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-261615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260820
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
320 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed mid/upper low over southeast iowa will drift across the
wisconsin/illinois border area today. The associated weakening
surface low will take a similar path, with the center reaching
southern lake michigan late this afternoon. Periods of light rain
associated with the upper divergence and 700 mb upward motion will
move across southern wi from south to north through the day,
especially east.

Expect low clouds and areas of fog and drizzle in between the rain
through much of the day, especially east. There is a chance for
dense fog, especially near the lakeshore later tonight into Sunday
morning as winds become light and the surface low moves over. Far
southeast wisconsin may get into the cloudy warm sector briefly this
afternoon, pushing temperatures into the lower to mid 50s.

Expect the low pressure to further weaken over the central great
lakes tonight. Northern areas will be close enough to lingering mid-
level circulation to warrant continuing a chance for some light rain
during the evening. This system will finally get nudged far enough
east of the area by late tonight diminishing or ending ending the
light rain chances.

Monday Forecast confidence is medium.

Guidance remains generally split during this period. While all
models show a weak wave passing though the central CONUS on Monday,
the euro/canadian show a much more zonal pattern across the upper
midwest than the gfs/nam. Unsurprisingly, the surface low that will
be in eastern ok on Monday morning is progged to have a more ne
track in the gfs/nam and a more easterly track in the ecmwf/gem.

Therefore the track favored by the gfs/nam would bring a good chance
at precip to the cwa, bringing some modest dynamics in the form
of divergence aloft, dcva, weak waa, and even some
frontogenitical forcing in the mid to low levels. The ecmwf/gem
track would keep much of that forcing to our south, leaving SE wi
largely dry. All solutions keep the lowest levels saturated
through the period, so at the very least we're looking at another
dreary day with cloudy skies, and at worst we're looking at light
rain on an off through the day.

This is essentially the same split-solution scenario we were
looking at on Saturday morning. Citing support from the euro
ensemble members, wpc favors the flatter solution, and this seems
reasonable. However, given the track of the gfs/nam and some
support from the GEFS members, cannot rule out a chance at rain on
Monday.

Long term
Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Generally zonal flow is expected in the mid to upper levels as
ridging works into the region while high pressure builds in at the
surface. The biggest discrepancies in the models are in the lower
levels. All guidance shows a period of CAA from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday, but the CAA is stronger in the gfs/nam due to
the passage of the low on Monday. As such, there is a split in the
temperature forecasts with the gfs/nam about 5-10 degrees cooler
than the euro/canadian. Will lean toward the euro/canadian
solution, though will be keeping temperatures along the lake cool
to account for onshore winds.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is low.

The split solution trend continues into the end of the week. All
guidance shows a deep cutoff low in the southwest on Wednesday,
gradually working its way to the ne. In the gfs, the cutoff low
passes well to the south of the state before transitioning into an
open wave on Friday once its over the central great lakes. This
would result in generally zonal flow over our area through this
period. Meanwhile, the euro and canadian have the low transitioning
to an open wave on Thursday over the great plains, bringing much
more meridional flow to the western great lakes on Thursday and
Friday.

At the surface, this all translates to a low tracking either just
south of the ohio river (gfs), through central illinois (euro) or
through southern wisconsin (canadian). The southerly track of the
gfs keeps southern wi completely dry whereas the other tracks
would translate into copious amounts of precip across the cwa. In
fact, if the euro solution were just a few degrees cooler, it
would be showing a setup for a pretty significant snowstorm. This
far out, it's tough to favor one solution to another, so will
generally be sticking with the blended guidance and we can
reevaluate at the solution becomes clearer.

Saturday and Sunday... Confidence is low.

All guidance continues to show a split flow regime, with yet another
cutoff low over the desert southwest and a northern stream shortwave
pushing though the upper midwest. There are pretty significant
differences regarding the timing and intensity of this wave, but it
does look like a shortwave will pass the region toward the end of
the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will build into the
region in in the wake of the low pressure system mentioned in the
previous section, followed by another low pressure system.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Low clouds are expected to persist through Sunday as low pressure
moves slowly northeastward. Scattered showers with patchy drizzle
will continue tonight, with more persistent rainfall possible
tomorrow morning, especially in the east. Could see some lower
visibilities form tonight as the winds become lighter.

Marine
The early morning expiration of the small craft advisory still looks
reasonable, as waves should fall below criteria by then as a weak
surface low moves across southern lake michigan this afternoon.

Low level moisture will continue to increase into this morning,
keeping the threat for dense fog going in the south as the low
pressure moves across. The fog will likely spread farther north,
so marine dense fog advisory has been expanded north to sheboygan.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt this morning for lmz643>646.

Dense fog advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz643-644.

Today/tonight and aviation/marine... Hentz
Monday through Saturday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi70 min NNE 11 G 14 39°F 1013.9 hPa (-2.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi20 min NNE 13 G 15 38°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi30 min NNE 9.9 G 13
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi30 min NNE 11 G 15 38°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW11
G17
NW10
G15
N10
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N11
G17
N9
G13
N9
G13
NW9
G13
NW12
G15
NW10
G13
N7
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NW7
NW11
G16
NW14
G18
NW10
G14
NW7
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G11
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1 day
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S7
G10
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G13
S15
G20
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G24
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G25
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
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G25
SW12
G23
S14
G21
NW25
G32
NW19
G26
NW15
G20
N10
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
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G16
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G18
NW11
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2 days
ago
SE6
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G13
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G14
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G15
SE11
G15
SE7
G10
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G16
SE11
G15
SE11
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G17
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G21
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G16
SE11
G18
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G17
SE9
G15
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G13
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G14
S7
G11
S5
G8
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G7
SE5
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi17 minNE 80.75 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1014.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi17 minENE 80.25 miFog41°F41°F100%1013.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi18 minNE 101.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1014.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi15 minNE 60.25 miFog41°F41°F100%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NE11NE14NE11NE13NE16
G22
NE14NE14NE9NE13NE13NE12NE9NE10NE10NE11NE11NE11NE11NE11NE10NE10NE8NE8
1 day agoSW11SW11SW9N5CalmE5SW9SW13
G17
E11NE11N15N13N18N16
G23
N14N14
G20
N14
G20
N12N11
G18
N16
G24
N16
G23
N15
G21
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G18
2 days agoS10S8S9
G18
S10S14
G19
SE14
G21
S17
G24
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G24
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G25
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G26
S16
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G20
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G19
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G26
S12
G20
5SE11S13
G21
S16S12
G20
S9SW12
G19
SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.