Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday April 27, 2017 1:51 PM CDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 811 Am Cdt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..West wind 15 to 20 knots backing southwest. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain showers likely mid and late morning, then slight chance of rain early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing east in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing northeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of showers through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
LMZ646 Expires:201704272215;;346053 FZUS53 KMKX 271311 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 811 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-272215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 271801
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
101 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017

Updated for 18z tafs...

Aviation(18z tafs)
Steady precipitation has ended for most areas, but some drizzle
may persist for the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will gradually
rise to around 3.5 kft tonight, but clearing is no longer
expected. Visibility should remain theVFR range through the taf
period. The next chance for rain showers arrives late Friday
evening.

Prev discussion (issued 708 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017)
update...

aviation(12z tafs)... The rain will end by late morning or early
afternoon. Some snow may mix with the rain mainly north and west
of madison. Areas of MVFR vsbys with the precip. This morning.

Cigs will range from 600-2000 ft this morning transitioning to
3.5 kft by late afternoon, then clearing.

Prev discussion... (issued 353 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

Cyclogenesis is underway from far SE wi to an ERN ls by early
afternoon. Rainfall rates have been light throughout the night but
moderate rainfall will now push through the area through about 16z
as the negative tilt upper wave moves into SRN wi. Cold advection
and the approach of the upper wave may result in a mixture of
rain and snow beginning around 13-14z mainly north and west of
madison. Brisk wly winds will develop in the wake of the low
pressure area with gradual drying and subsidence bringing some
clearing to the region tnt. A col will settle over SRN wi late tnt
with cool temps and frost expected.

Long term...

Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Rain chances increase across southern wi through Fri afternoon as
a low level jet (llj) points into the wi/il border and the low
level front pivots over the area with the approach of a mid level
wave. This is a brief period of forcing for rain that tapers off
from west to east through Fri evening. The ecwmf keeps southern wi
nearly dry for this period while the other models produce precip.

Friday night is looking cold with decreasing clouds over central
wi. Low temps should drop into the mid 30s for northern portions
of the mkx forecast area. This means patchy frost will be a
concern.

Saturday through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a pretty good chance for dry, raw weather across
southern wi for much of Saturday. We need to wait for the next mid
level wave to reach the area for the rain. The ECMWF is the one
model that spreads precip into southern wi during the afternoon,
but the majority of the precip remains south of the wi/il border. Brisk
east winds and clouds will keep temperatures cool, with highs in
the mid 40s near the lake and lower 50s inland.

By Saturday evening, the LLJ will nose into southern wi, along
with the 850mb warm front and mid level shortwave. This strong
forcing will bring a round of moderate rain. Elevated
thunderstorms will be possible. Winds will remain steady and
strong out of the northeast since we will remain on the north
side of the surface front.

The stronger forcing will be split to the east and west of
southern wi on Sunday, but elevated instability and ample moisture
will lead to off and on showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day, along with continued gusty northeast winds.

Sunday night will bring another round of moderate rain and
scattered thunderstorms. This is the time where the upper low gets
into the midwest, along with the surface occluded front.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The dry slot should track through southeast wi on Monday and bring
a break in the rain, but brisk westerly winds. The wrap-around
region of the occluded system is expected to swing across southern
wi Monday afternoon. 850mb temps will be falling below freezing,
so some snow mixed into the rain is not out of the question for
mon afternoon/evening before the system moves out.

Quiet and slightly warmer weather will return to southern wi on
Tuesday as that system gets out of the region. The next chance for
rain looks like it will hold off until Thu night.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

the ifr stratus over south central wisconsin will persist through
this morning, before rising toVFR by late afternoon. Westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are forecast for this afternoon,
especially in southeastern wi.

Look for the moderate rain showers to move northeast out of the
area during the late morning.

Marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect from 14z-00z today
for brisk wly winds. Variable winds early this morning will become
brisk wly by 9 am as low pressure tracks northward along the
western shore of lake mi. Wind gusts will range from 25-30 kts.

Winds will weaken after sunset.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Spm
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Gehring
Friday through Wednesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi52 min WSW 16 G 26 44°F 1001.7 hPa (+4.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi42 min W 14 G 21 42°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi51 min WSW 16 G 27 45°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi62 min W 14 G 16 43°F 41°F5 ft1001.2 hPa (+4.4)40°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi52 min W 8 G 22 42°F 1000.3 hPa (+4.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SW13
G20
SW8
G16
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G16
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G16
S8
G12
W5
G8
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G8
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SE7
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N6
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G10
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G12
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S11
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi59 minW 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast45°F34°F66%1001.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi59 minW 21 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy45°F36°F71%1001.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi60 minW 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast44°F36°F73%1000.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi57 minVar 6 G 1610.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1001.1 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
G19
SW13
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SW13SW12
G18
SW7SW76SW4SW5W7W3N3E4SE5S11S11S11NW5W8W15
G25
W17
G26
W16
G27
W16
G25
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G23
1 day agoS15S12SE9SE14SE12SE10SE9S10
G15
S10SE8SE8S8S9S11S9S11S9
G17
S10S15
G21
S9SE8S6S3SW10
G20
2 days agoS10SE8SE6E7E6SE5E3SE4SE3S4SE7SE7SE8SE10
G17
S7SE10S10S12
G16
S12
G18
S11S10S10S14S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.