Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 12:13 PM CST (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Wed Jan 23 2019
Rest of today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Snow around noon, then chance of flurries early in the afternoon. Freezing spray late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the afternoon veering northwest with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots backing west early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201901232300;;808278 FZUS53 KMKX 231705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-232300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 231609 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1009 am cst Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Today through Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

The strong shortwave trough over NW il and SW wi will move across
srn wi through early afternoon. The snow will continue beyond
noon for an hour or two over east central wi, but snowfall rates
should be very light at that time. Thus, will let the winter storm
warning expire at noon.

A weak sfc ridge and clearing skies will build into SRN wi for
tnt, although clouds will begin to increase from west to east
toward sunrise. A strong arctic front will then sweep across srn
wi from late morning into the early afternoon, accompanied by
flurries and wind gusts of 30-35 mph. Temps will fall into the
single digits by late afternoon, with wind chill temps falling to
8 below to 16 below zero by sunset.

Gehring

Marine
Nearshore waters...

north to northwest winds will increase into this afternoon, with
some gusts to 20 knots. Waves of 3 to 4 feet are expected this
afternoon as well. A few gusts to 22 knots are possible, though
think most of this will be over the open waters. Thus, will hold
off on a small craft advisory. Freezing spray may develop tonight
into Thursday, with westerly winds lingering.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday. Gusts to 30 knots are
expected at times. A small craft advisory will likely be needed
for this period. More gusty offshore winds are possible Sunday
into early next week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring freezing
spray Thursday into early next week, with heavy freezing spray
possible. A heavy freezing spray watch may be needed in later
forecasts for Thursday afternoon into Sunday. More heavy freezing
spray may occur early next week.

Wood
open waters...

north to northwest winds will increase into this afternoon, with
some gusts to 30 knots possible. Waves will build over the eastern
portions of the lake. Freezing spray may develop tonight into
Thursday, with westerly winds lingering.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected behind a strong
cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday. Gusts to 30 knots are
expected at times. A few 35 knot gales are possible as well.

Building waves will occur during this period. More gusty winds
are possible at times Sunday into early next week.

The very cold airmass combined with the winds will bring freezing
spray Thursday into early next week, with heavy freezing spray
possible. A heavy freezing spray watch may be needed in later
forecasts for Thursday afternoon into Sunday. More heavy freezing
spray may occur early next week.

Wood

Prev discussion (issued 537 am cst Wed jan 23 2019)
update...

the forecast generally remains on track for the upcoming day.

Widespread snowfall will continue through the morning, winding to
west to east late morning into early afternoon. Another 2 to 4
inches is likely before the snow comes to an end. The snow will
may be heavy at times and will impact the morning commute.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

steady snow will continue through most of the morning. The snow
may be heavy at times, with visibilities dropping to 1 2
mile... Possibly briefly down to 1 4 mile. Snow will wind down
west to east then late morning into early afternoon. Snow to
liquid ratios are expected to increase today as somewhat colder
air moves into the area, resulting in a drier snowfall this
morning.

Lower ceilings are expected to hang on in the afternoon. There
could be a period ofVFR late afternoon into the evening, before
ceilings drop again by later tonight ahead of an approaching
wave.

Prev discussion... (issued 345 am cst Wed jan 23 2019)
short term...

today through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
snow will continue through the morning hours today, winding down
in the northeast early afternoon. Snow has been on and off in
intensity most of the night, but will become steadier early this
morning. The snow could be heavy at times through the morning and
is expected to cause impacts on the morning commute. Still looks
like storm totals of 4 to 8 inches across southern wisconsin.

Decided to leave the winter storm warning as is, as all locations
will be impacted this morning. Light snow will linger early
afternoon, but the widespread impactful snow will wind down by
around noon, so the warning end time looks reasonable.

Clouds may scatter out for a time this evening into between the
exiting low and an approaching wave. Given lighter winds and the
snowpack, temperatures could tank fast where there is clearing.

Bumped lows down a little to reflect this, but could see temps
several degrees lower if the clearing is substantial.

The shortwave along with a potent cold front will move through on
Thursday, likely bringing a little light snow to the area. Kept
precip chances on the low end given saturation and lift aren't
lining up very well. Still, most places should see at least
flurries as this system moves through. Winds will pick up out of
the northwest behind the front, with temperatures crashing and
wind chills dropping below zero for the afternoon hours.

Long term...

Thursday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence high.

Very cold air will be building into the area Thursday night behind
the earlier frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to quickly
fall below zero Thursday evening, bottoming out between 10 and 15
below in most areas by daybreak Friday. Wind chills will be
around 30 below zero.

Highs on Friday will briefly make it to around zero during the
afternoon, though it's certainly plausible that some areas will
fail to reach the zero degree mark. It's been 5 years--january 6,
2014--since temperatures failed to rise above zero for both
madison and milwaukee. Wind chills Friday will remain in
potentially dangerous territory, only "improving" to between 15
and 20 below during the afternoon.

Temperatures Friday night Saturday morning may actually be just a
touch colder than the previous night, with lows around -15 across
all but the immediate lakeshore areas. Despite slightly colder
temperatures, lighter winds will result in a similar minimum wind
chills values as Thursday night Friday morning, with readings
around -30.

Very cold temperatures continue for Saturday and Sunday. A compact
closed low rotating through the upper great lakes may bring a few
light snow showers to the area late Saturday, but no appreciable
snow accumulations are expected at this time.

Monday through next Wednesday... Forecast confidence moderate.

Things get interesting heading into the first half of the
workweek, with extended guidance in good agreement in bringing a
strong clipper south across the northern plains into the midwest.

This system should have a fair amount of moisture to work with,
and very cold temperatures will result in high snow to liquid
ratios. The exact track remains in flux, but a swath of decent
snow is likely just north of the track of the surface low. This
will certainly be something to keep an eye on over the coming
days.

Beyond Monday, the firehose of arctic air remains focused on the
area, with very cold temperatures continuing into at least the
end of the week, with highs in the teens and single digits and
lows well below zero.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

snow will continue through most of this morning. After a bit of a
lull, a steadier snowfall is developing and will persist into
late morning. Some of the higher snowfall rates and lower
visibilities will occur during this period, particularly from
around 11z to 17z. Snow will wind down west to east then late
morning into early afternoon. Snow to liquid ratios haven't been
particularly high yet, with a dry, but somewhat dense snow thus
far. Ratios are expected to increase today as somewhat colder air
moves into the area.

Lower ceilings are expected to hang on in the afternoon. There
could be a period ofVFR late afternoon into the evening, before
ceilings drop again by later tonight ahead of an approaching
wave.

Marine...

north to northwest winds will gust to 30 knots today over the open
waters behind departing low pressure, with the highest gusts over
southern and central parts of the lake. Winds and waves may touch
small craft advisory levels briefly in the nearshore waters, but
it looked too borderline for an advisory.

A potent cold front and gusty northwest winds will bring much
colder temperatures Thursday. Gusts may hit gale force for a time
over the open waters late afternoon into the evening. A small
craft advisory is likely for Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning.

Gusty winds and high waves at times late week into early next week
will bring occasional heavy freezing spray, as the cold airmass is
expected to hang around for a while.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm warning until noon cst today for wiz046-047-051-052-
056>060-062>072.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring wood
today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Thursday through Tuesday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi73 min NW 9.9 G 15 25°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi93 min NNW 11 G 15 24°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi53 min NW 6 G 16 22°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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S11
G15
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G17
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S8
G12
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G12
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G11
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G12
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G20
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G19
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G23
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NW13
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G17
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W7
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G15
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G10
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G11
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi20 minNW 115.00 miLight Snow26°F19°F75%1006.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi20 minNW 116.00 miFog/Mist25°F21°F85%1006 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi21 minNW 12 G 193.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F18°F75%1006.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi18 minNW 11 G 173.00 miLight Snow26°F21°F81%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S6S6S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmN3N5N9N13N12N15
G20
NE13N9N13N15N12N13N12NW11NW11
1 day agoS5SE14SE12SE13
G18
SE14SE11
G18
SE14
G22
S15
G26
SE18
G27
S14
G23
S15
G25
S16
G27
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G26
SE17
G24
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G24
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G29
S16
G25
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G26
S21
G31
S18
G27
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S11S11S7
2 days agoN13N17
G27
N16
G22
N12
G20
NW9NW12
G18
NW11
G21
NW8NW9NW9NW8NW8NW9NW8NW8NW7NW5NW7NW7NW4W5SW8
G16
SW9SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.