Friday, November24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:22PM Friday November 24, 2017 1:13 AM CST (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Am Cst Fri Nov 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers through around midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and early morning, then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Saturday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201711241000;;876872 FZUS53 KMKX 240705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 105 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-241000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240544
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1144 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017

Update
Some altocumulus brushing across the far northeast, otherwise a
slight increase in cirrus. Increasing pressure gradient, so
temperatures will not drop much.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Vfr conditions expected for this TAF period. Increasing low level
winds will cause low level wind shear scenario late tonight into
Friday morning before surface winds become increasingly gusty.

Prev discussion (issued 906 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017)
update...

a few altocumulus brushing across the far north, otherwise clear.

Increasing pressure gradient, so temperatures will not drop much.

Marine...

low pressure moving across southern canada will result in a
tightening pressure gradient ahead of an associated cold front. As
a result, gusty southwest winds will develop late tonight and
continue into Friday evening. The gusty southwest winds will turn
to the northwest Friday night and continue into Saturday. A few
gale force gusts will be possible Friday and Friday evening ahead
of the approaching cold front. Small craft advisory starts up
late tonight and will continue into Saturday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 528 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017)
update...

mostly clear skies this evening. Light southwest winds.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr conditions expected for this TAF period. Increasing low level
winds will cause low level wind shear scenario late tonight into
Friday morning before surface winds become increasingly gusty.

Prev discussion... (issued 215 pm cdt Thu nov 23 2017)
tonight and Friday - forecast confidence... Medium to high.

Expect to see some increasing mid high clouds later tonight as
second surge of warm air advection moves across the western
great lakes. Strongest push remains over northern wi where a
few light showers may get squeezed out from the mid-clouds.

Will continue dry conditions in CWA due to lack of saturation
below 6k feet across northern areas. A breezy day is expected
on Friday. Expect early morning mid-high clouds to thin through the
late morning and early afternoon resulting in good boundary layer
mixing. Inversion will set up around 2-3ft preventing strongest
winds from mixing to surface. However still expect gusts reaching
28-33 knots from late morning through mid-afternoon. 925h temps
warm to 11-13c. Considering mid-november more limited sunshine, and
potential for mid-clouds returning in the afternoon, still thinking
temps should peak in the mid 50s to around 60 before cold front
moves through during the late afternoon and evening. Column
precipitable water increases to over three quarters inch ahead of
approaching front. Sloping frontogenetical forcing and enhanced
forcing from right entrance region may have just enough atmospheric
moisture to result in a few light showers near the cold front.

Hence added small pops from mid-afternoon into the early evening for
light showers.

Friday night through Sunday - forecast confidence... Medium to high.

Light shower threat will end Friday evening as cold front exits the
area. Then cooler, more seasonal conditions will return for the
weekend as 925h temps cool to the zero to 5 above range. Upper
level steering winds remain wnw preventing any significant surge of
colder air. Influx of drier air and passing high pressure will
result in quiet conditions to finish off the long holiday
weekend.

Extended period...

Sunday night through Thursday - forecast confidence... Medium.

A short wave trof moving swiftly eastward across the upper midwest
will affect the region for the first part of the period. Deeper
atmospheric moisture will continue to be cutoff as sprawling high
pressure blankets the southeast conus. Mild southwesterly breezes
ahead of the surface cold front associated with the mid-level trof
will result in another mild day on Monday. Daytime temperatures may
be just as warm as tomorrow. 925h temps warm to 9 to 11 degrees c
with the GFS about 2 degrees warmer than ecmwf. Medium range
guidance in general agreement on carrying cold front through
southern wi on Tuesday, however disagreement on timing. Gfs
consistently faster with cold front passing through about 12 hours
earlier than ECMWF and gem. The slower movement of the ecwmf gem
solution allows just enough gulf moisture to stream north on Tuesday
to result in showers along the passing cold front over eastern cwa
per gem. Ecwmf keeps moisture a bit shallower. Wpc blended
guidance also favors slower movement emphasizing ECMWF blend. If
this trend continues, may need to eventually add some some small
pops to Tuesday outlook.

Otherwise, seasonal conditions to continue around mid-week. Another
short wave caught in the zonal flow looks to move through the upper
midwest in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame, but moisture
return looks limited once again.

Aviation(21z tafs)... No change to the ongoing forecast.VFR
conditions expected for this TAF period. Increasing low level winds
will cause low level wind shear scenario late tonight into
Friday morning before surface winds become increasingly gusty.

Marine... Deepening low pressure moving across southern canada
will result in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an
associated cold front. As a result, gusty southwest winds will
develop later tonight and continue into Friday evening. The
gusty southwest winds will turn to the northwest Friday night
and continue into Saturday. A few gale force gusts will be
possible Friday and Friday evening ahead of the approaching cold
front. Lake surface temperature is around 43 degrees which will
limit the amount of low level mixing on Friday as the warmer air
surges into the region. Small craft advisory starts up late tonight
and will continue into Saturday morning.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 am Friday to 6 am cst Saturday for
lmz643>646.

Update... Hentz
tonight Friday and aviation marine... mbk
Friday night through Thursday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi73 min SSW 8 G 9.9 37°F 1010.5 hPa (-2.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 22 mi23 min SSW 8.9 G 11 38°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi33 min SSW 9.9 G 13 38°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 42 mi83 min W 16 G 18 44°F 47°F2 ft1011.6 hPa (-1.6)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi33 min SW 5.1 G 11 35°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi20 minSW 910.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1010.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi20 minSW 710.00 miFair34°F25°F70%1010.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi21 minSW 710.00 miFair35°F26°F70%1009.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi18 minSW 78.00 miFair33°F26°F75%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9SW7SW8S6SW6SW7SW10W9SW10SW9SW8W9W5W6CalmW4S4S4SW6SW6SW7SW8SW9
1 day agoNW5NW5W5W5W5W6W6W64SW6SW7W8W8SW11SW5SW3SW4S6S8SW7SW8SW7SW5SW6
2 days agoSW14
G24
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SW11W9
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NW8NW8NW6NW7NW8NW9NW8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.