Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:06PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:28 AM CDT (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Am Cdt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the morning, then backing south early in the afternoon becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201903221600;;745835 FZUS53 KMKX 221206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-221600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221059 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
559 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Update
Clouds have fallen apart as they move in from the north, so looks
like mainly scattered cloud cover in the east this morning.

Otherwise, the forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Mid level clouds will clip eastern areas this morning. Otherwise,
high pressure building into the area today into tonight will
bring mostly clear skies to southern wisconsin through Saturday.

Breezy winds today will become lighter tonight into Saturday as
the high moves through.

Prev discussion (issued 304 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019)
discussion...

today through Saturday... Forecast confidence is high:
it still looks like mid level clouds may clip the east this
morning, with mostly sunny skies then across southern wisconsin
later morning and afternoon as high pressure builds in. The high
will keep skies mostly clear through Saturday. Breezy winds today
will become light Saturday as the high moves overhead.

Cool northerly winds will result in temps around normal values
today. The low level flow will become southerly Saturday behind
the departing high, with milder temps into the upper 40s and low
50s expected.

Saturday night through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is
high.

Not much change to this forecast. A weakening mid level short
wave over the central plains will track toward the region, but
will get deflected south in response to a larger mid level trough
digging south from canada. The better low level jet, warm air
advection, etc will stay south of the border. But, there is enough
deep UVV associated with the overall cyclonic flow across the area
to produce a period of showers Sunday into Sunday evening.

However, the moisture pushing in will be battling a rather dry
east to northeast flow associated with the arrival of a strong
canadian high pressure system later Sunday night. The models are
in pretty decent agreement with the qpf. We could see about 1 4
inch over the WRN forecast area... Diminishing to a few hundreths
across the north. Will maintain the highest pops across the
south, tapering off to the north.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

A very large, rather chilly canadian high pressure system will
settle over the great lakes Monday and Tuesday, drifting off to
the east by Wednesday. Monday will be the coldest of these days,
with Wednesday moderating quickly as we get into a warmer
southerly flow on the backside of the exiting high. We will stay
dry through the period with plenty of sunshine.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A split flow in the mid levels will undergo some phasing as a two
areas of short wave energy merge over the upper midwest Thursday
night into Friday. Some of the guidance brings rain chances in on
Thursday, but this is well out ahead of the main sfc trof cold
front and is suspect. Thursday could be a very mild and overall
dry day before rain moves in Thursday night. A cold front will
sweep across the area by around Friday of next week. Both the gfs
and the ECMWF focus the best rainfall north and west of the
forecast area as the surface low tracks over southern wisconsin.

The model soundings aren't showing much CAPE with this system, but
given the pattern and the temps moisture ahead of it, it can't be
ruled out. Will leave it out for now and assess over the next few
days.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

mid level clouds may clip eastern areas this morning. Otherwise,
high pressure building into the area today into tonight will bring
mostly clear skies to southern wisconsin through Saturday. Breezy
winds today will become lighter tonight into Saturday as the high
moves through.

Marine...

gusty northerly winds are expected today. It looks like the
stronger winds will be delayed a little from previous thinking.

Gusts may not hit advisory levels over the nearshore waters and
gale force over the open waters until around daybreak. Despite the
slight delay, will keep the gale warning and small craft advisory
timing as is, as the end times still look reasonable.

Expect lighter winds tonight into Sunday as high pressure passes
through the area. A cold front dropping southward through the area
will bring a quick increase in winds and building waves later
Sunday into Sunday night. North to northeast winds will likely hit
small craft advisory levels Sunday evening into Monday, with gale
force winds possible for a time over the open waters.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz080-261-362-
364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
today through Saturday and aviation marine... Ddv
Saturday night through Thursday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi28 min NW 7 G 8 36°F 1016.3 hPa (+3.1)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 22 mi38 min 36°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi48 min WNW 5.1 G 7 35°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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G18
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi35 minNNW 510.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1016.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi35 minNW 410.00 miFair34°F30°F85%1016.5 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi36 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds35°F27°F72%1016.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi33 minNW 510.00 miFair32°F28°F85%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N9N8N9NW10NW8W9W9W10W12
G18
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G18
W7--W5W7W9W9W11W10NW7NW8N9N10NW5
1 day agoS3S9SW11SW7SW10SW7SW9SW5SW8SW7SW6S4S4S4NW7N7NW7NW7NW6N8N16
G22
N11N11N9
G18
2 days agoW6W7W4W8W10
G18
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G18
SW8
G14
W10
G18
SW10
G18
SE10S9S6S4CalmS3CalmSW5SW7SW7SW4SW8SW8SW7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.