Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:36PM Saturday February 24, 2018 4:01 AM CST (10:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:55PMMoonset 2:58AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Early this morning..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..East wind 15 to 25 knots veering southeast late in the evening, then veering south after midnight becoming southwest up to 30 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 35 knots. Patchy fog through the night. Rain and a chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 5 to 7 feet after midnight subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..West wind up to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201802242200;;468827 FZUS53 KMKX 240905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-242200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240915
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
315 am cst Sat feb 24 2018

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Main focus for the next 24 hours will be with an approaching
shortwave and deepening surface low. Precipitation will develop
over iowa late this morning and afternoon, pushing into southern
wisconsin during the afternoon and evening timeframe. There will
be a very small window for a brief mix of precipitation along the
very leading edge of the precipitation, but no impacts are
expected, and any mix should quickly transition to all rain.

Forecast models are showing some elevated instability across the
area this afternoon and especially this evening, and have included
a chance for thunderstorms.

Rain should be most widespread during the evening hours, as the
surface low and main mid level wave push through. Winds ahead of
the surface low will be gusty from the east, and with temperatures
hanging out in the mid to upper 30s, it looks like a very raw
evening and night across the region. Given the easterly flow and
plenty of moisture, we will also need to watch for fog potential
tonight.

Rain will end during the latter half of the overnight as a cold
front sweeps through. Westerly winds will become quite gusty after
3-4 am, with a few gusts approaching 40 mph by Sunday morning.

Sunday through Monday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Main issue Sunday will be the strong winds. Strong cold air
advection develops in the wake of the cold front Sunday morning.

Plenty of downward mixing is expected, with a tight pressure
gradient and rather steep low level lapse rates.

Area forecast soundings from the NAM and GFS are showing
potential for southwesterly to westerly 35 to 40 knot average wind
speeds in the boundary layer Sunday morning, highest toward the
sheboygan area. Thus, some gusts may reach wind advisory levels
Sunday morning. Will let the next shift take another look at these
potential wind gusts, before deciding on any headlines. Rather
mild temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s are anticipated
Sunday.

Winds will weaken Sunday afternoon and night, as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Winds should gradually shift to the south
southwest Monday into Monday night. This should allow for gradual
warm air advection during the Monday into Monday night period.

Thus, the mild temperatures are expected to continue. Monday highs
may reach into the lower 50s, which is a bit warmer than currently
forecast.

Long term
Tuesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another mild day looks to occur Tuesday, before a cold front or
weak inverted trough pushes east through the region Tuesday
afternoon or night. There is some uncertainty in this, with the
gfs showing a cold front and the ECMWF and canadian more of an
inverted trough. GFS forecast soundings are not showing a lot of
moisture with this system. Kept lower end pops for now. It would
be a rain to snow transition Tuesday night, as temperatures drop.

Gfs canadian models then show some cyclogenesis Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as a compact low shifts northeast toward and
across northern illinois. This low lingers Thursday, before
shifting to the east Thursday night and Friday. The ecmwf
continues to show a much weaker low during this time. This may be
due to the ECMWF not phasing the northern and southern stream 500
mb shortwave troughs, which the GFS and canadian models phase.

The GFS canadian bring a fair amount of QPF into the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday, much less on the ecmwf. Will
continue higher end pops for Wednesday night into Thursday evening
across the area. Right now, it looks to be a snow to rain change
on Thursday morning, then a change back to light snow Thursday
evening.

Will need to watch this system's track, as a further southward
push would bring more snow than currently forecast, and colder
temperatures. Overall, temperatures look to remain above seasonal
normals through most of the week.

Aviation(09z tafs)
MVFR ceilings are pushing into the area this morning, and should
gradually fill in as the morning GOES on. Rain and perhaps even a
few thunderstorms will move through from late afternoon into the
late night hours, along with ifr to lifr vis and ceilings. Winds
will be from the east during this time, with a few gusts to around
25 kt.

Later tonight, precipitation will end as a front sweeps through
the region. Behind that front, westerly winds look to become quite
gusty, with the strong west winds continuing into Sunday morning.

From late Saturday night and Sunday morning, a few wind gusts to
around 35 kt will be possible.

Marine
Easterly winds will increase today and this evening across the
nearshore, with gusts between 25 and 30 kt at times. A small craft
advisory will be in effect starting at 6 pm, with waves building
overnight to as much as 10 ft, particularly north of port
washington.

Winds will then quickly become westerly with the passage of a
cold front, increasing to gale force by dawn. Expect at least a
few gale gusts to continue into Sunday afternoon.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst Sunday
for lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 6 am to 9 pm cst Sunday for lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday through Friday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi61 min N 11 G 13 32°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi81 min N 15 G 17 32°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi81 min N 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NW9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi68 minN 510.00 miFair30°F25°F82%1025.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi68 minNNE 78.00 miFair31°F25°F79%1024.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi69 minN 810.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F25°F79%1024.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi66 minNNE 88.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S9
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W10W9W6W6CalmCalmCalmW3NW4N4N6N7N5NE7
1 day agoNE9NE11NE7NE9NE14NE11NE10NE10NE12NE11E9E10E10NE8E11E12E14E9SE8SE9SE12SE14
G21
SE12
G20
SE10
G18
2 days agoNW11NW10
G19
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G22
NW10N12
G18
N10NW7NW5NW6NE6N6NE6N6N4NE4NE5N3N5NE7NE8NE7NE9NE12NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.