Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 10:02 PM   Moonset 6:26 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Monday evening - .
Today - East wind 5 knots becoming southeast late in the morning, then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon backing east late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Friday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet late in the morning, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then veering south after midnight becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 250930 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for below-freezing temperatures.

- Active pattern later Friday through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. There is a severe storm risk as well, with some uncertainty remaining.

SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today through Friday:

The Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning for the entire forecast area. High clouds moving through the area overnight have limited the temperature drop in the western parts of the area, with at or below freezing temperatures in the east. There are some breaks in the clouds, and with the very light to calm winds, some areas in the west should still drop to or a little below freezing.

High pressure will continue to move east of the region today and tonight. The high will bring quiet weather to the area, with light east to southeast winds. Skies should become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland, with onshore winds keeping upper 40s to middle 50s closer to Lake Michigan.

Southeast winds should gradually increase tonight, with middle to high clouds gradually moving into the area. May still see some middle 30s for lows in northern and northeastern parts of the area.

The breezy southeast flow in the low levels continues into Friday, as the low pressure system develops in the Central Plains. This flow is rather dry, so it may take awhile on Friday for the initial round of warm air advection and low level jet- fed showers and thunderstorms to move into the area. Slowed down the timing of the precipitation to mainly the afternoon hours, and may need more adjustments for a slower start toward sunset.
Highs should reach the middle 50s to around 60.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Deterministic models and ensembles suggest the surface low tracking northeast into southern Minnesota Friday night, then into Lake Superior on Saturday. There is good agreement with showing a period of showers and elevated thunderstorms shifting northeast through the area with the warm frontal passage Friday night and early Saturday. The low level jet will point into the area and help feed the warm and moist air into the region.

Not out of the question to see some elevated storms produce hail, with forecast soundings showing decent elevated CAPE within some strong effective layer shear. This activity should move northeast of the area by middle morning, with a break in the precipitation possible into Saturday afternoon. This will allow warm and moist air into the area, with highs well into the 70s and dew points possibly reaching 60 or higher.

The low will bring a cold front into north central and southwest Wisconsin by 00z Sunday, possibly sagging southeast into the area Saturday night, before the next low moving toward the region has the boundary possibly stalling out somewhere across southern Wisconsin. Another low level jet feed from the south southwest may feed into the area and interact with this boundary to produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast soundings show strong deep layer and low layer shear, with warm and moist air bringing mean layer CAPE values well above 1000 J/kg. Thus, the later Saturday into Saturday night/early Sunday morning period may be the first possibility for strong to severe storms. SPC Day 3 Outlook as the area in a slight risk, which seems reasonable. Mesoscale details will determine what ultimately occurs, as far as storm mode and areal coverage, so keep up with the forecast.

This will also be a chance for heavy rainfall and possibly some training convection, with the 500 mb flow parallel to the surface boundary. A solid 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may occur through Saturday night/early Sunday morning, which is the 25th and 75th percentiles of NBM, respectively. There is still uncertainty with the rainfall amounts, so keep up with this portion of the forecast.

A second low track, similar to the first low track, should move northeast through the region Sunday into Monday, with the forecast area in the warm sector once again. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may occur with the lingering stalled frontal boundary into Sunday, before it tries to shift north.
Warm and moist air will linger on Sunday.

If it can, then the trailing cold front or a pre-frontal trough could help focus more strong to severe storms later Sunday into Sunday night. The timing of the cold front is toward 12Z Monday or later, which is not ideal for severe storms. Thus, more uncertainty exists in this period for what may occur. Strong deep layer shear and enough mean layer CAPE are there, so there is severe potential.

Heavy rainfall in this period would add to those rainfall totals, and perhaps some impacts if training convection occurs.
NBM shows up to a 50 percent potential for greater than 2 inches of rainfall occurring through the weekend in western parts of the area.

Things should quiet down Monday afternoon or evening after the low exits the region. May see another low move into the region by the middle of next week, with more chances for showers and storms. Ensembles indicate warm temperatures should linger into next week.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High clouds will move through the area into this morning, before clearing out with mostly clear skies this afternoon into this evening. Some more high clouds should move in later tonight into early Friday.

Light and variable winds into this morning will become southeast and remain relatively light into this afternoon. Some southeast gusts may occur for terminals near the lake, as the lake breeze pushes westward. Southeast winds should then increase and tonight into Friday morning.

Wood

MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Light winds generally from the southeast will prevail over Lake Michigan today, as high pressure around 30.1 inches gradually shifts to the east of the region. Southeast winds will begin to increase tonight.

Low pressure of 29.2 inches will develop across the Central Plains on Friday and move northeast into Lake Superior on Saturday. Southeast winds will continue to strengthen Friday into Friday night, becoming south on Saturday. Some gales are possible at times Friday night into Saturday over the open waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times across the region late Friday into Saturday night.

Another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will move northeast across the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday, which will again bring gusty south winds across Lake Michigan.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times once again during this period.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Friday through Monday, for southeast winds building to 15 to 25 knots later tonight into Friday night, becoming south Saturday into Monday. Gusts to 30 knots are expected at times. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet are expected Friday, then 4 to 7 feet Friday night into Saturday, then 2 to 4 feet Saturday night into Monday.

Wood

FIRE WEATHER
Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

One more day of very low relative humidity values are expected away from Lake Michigan, where values of 20 to 30 percent should occur. Winds are expected to become southeast by later this morning and remain relatively light this afternoon. There may be some gusts near Lake Michigan in the afternoon with the lake breeze.

Showers and thunderstorms should gradually move northeast into the area Friday afternoon, with rounds of showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and more humid conditions are expected, along with gusty southeast to south winds.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Freeze Warning
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Thursday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Friday to 7 PM Monday.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Milwaukee, WI,