Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:11PM Monday April 23, 2018 2:37 AM PDT (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:22PMMoonset 2:09AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 205 Am Pdt Mon Apr 23 2018
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 5 am pdt early this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am pdt this morning...
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt early in the morning. Wind nw in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to W 5 kt after midnight, then...backing to S early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 6 ft at 16 seconds and W 4 ft at 12 seconds...building to 7 to 8 ft at 16 seconds and S 1 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Tue night..W wind 5 kt...veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 8 ft.
Wed..N wind 5 kt...backing to W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft.
Wed night..W wind 5 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft.
Thu..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S in the afternoon and evening, then...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..SE wind 5 kt...veering to s. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 ft...building to 7 ft.
PZZ300 205 Am Pdt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough near the coast and offshore high pressure will both weaken today. A mix of steep to very steep seas and strong gusty winds will gradually lower this morning into early this afternoon. Seas will increase on Tuesday as west swell builds into the waters, but will likely remain below advisory level. Weak low pressure will then persist over the waters through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 230929
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
229 am pdt Mon apr 23 2018

Discussion Today through Wednesday night... The short term will
be dominated by a building ridge in the upper levels, a surface
thermal trough and a cut-off low that develops offshore Tuesday
that lingers offshore through at least Thursday. This results in
the main story for the short term being very warm temperatures
that are more typical for late june into july than late april.

With the exception of some thin high level clouds, skies are clear
for across the forecast area this morning thanks to offshore flow.

The thermal trough will remain along the coast through late this
morning and east to northeast flow will bring another round of warm
temperatures to the coast today. The thermal trough will expand
north and push inland this afternoon and this will turn the flow
along the coast to onshore by this evening. Because of this, today
should be last relatively warm day along the coast and temperatures
will moderate Tuesday onward. A coastal wind reversal still looks
likely late tonight. This will lead to a surge of marine stratus
moving south to north along the coast. Timing of these reversals is
usually difficult to pin down, and have left the previous thinking
as is with stratus reaching brookings some time around midnight and
possibly reaching port orford by daybreak Tuesday.

Away from the coast, temperatures will begin a rapid warming trend
with highs today about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than they were Sunday
west of the cascades. East of the cascades, the warm-up will be
slightly less dramatic with highs of 5 to 10 degrees warmer today
than Sunday. The thermal trough will continue to shift inland
Tuesday and Wednesday and the warming trend will continue. Wednesday
looks to be the warmest day this week, with some inland valley
locations flirting with the 90 degrees mark.

Let's not forget the cut-off low that's offshore Tuesday into
Wednesday. There are still positional differences between the models
with the GFS continuing to have the low closer to shore Wednesday
than the ec. Although the GFS still indicates some instability
Wednesday afternoon, there doesn't appear to be sufficient moisture
for showers thunderstorms to develop. As such, have removed the
chance for showers for curry and western siskiyou counties Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The low will begin moving towards the coast
Thursday and this should begin a cooling temperature trend. The
uncertainties of the progression of this low are covered well in the
extended discussion from Sunday afternoon and follows.

Long term... Thursday through Sunday... An upper low approaching from
the west will probably begin to cool us down and bring a chance for
precipitation Thursday. I say probably, because while the models all
agree on the existence of this low, there is a lot of difference in
the position and movement the low in the deterministic models. For
example, by Thursday afternoon, the GFS has the center of the low
approximately 300 miles closer to us than the european model.

While there are also differences between the various model
ensembles, they are not as extreme. That said, ensembles from both
the GFS and european do show a fair amount of spread, and most of
this spread is on the continental side of the low, and this seems to
indicate that the deviant members tend to be closer to us than the
mean (although this is very hard to see in the spaghetti plot). In
other words, there is some support for the closer operational gfs
solution. Needless to say, confidence in the evolution of this low
is not high. As a result, I haven't made any extreme changes to the
extended forecast, but rather just simply nudged everything toward
the general model consensus.

While confidence in the details isn't very high early on in the
extended, I think we can say with high confidence that the low will
move in Friday and over the weekend, and that this will result in
much lower temperatures than in the short term as well as lower snow
levels and a good chance for showers. We may also see some
thunderstorm activity, although this is complicated by snow cover in
the mountains (which dramatically lowers surface-based instability).

The most promising day for thunderstorms looks like Friday, since
upper dynamics are the greatest. For the remainder of the weekend,
thunderstorm chances are focused on the east side where there is
little to no snow cover remaining. -wright

Aviation 23 06z TAF cycle...VFR conditions under clear skies
will prevail through Monday. The only exception may be the
coquille valley, where there may be an area of ifr CIGS vsbys in
low clouds and fog late tonight into Monday morning.

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Monday 23 april 2018... Winds and seas
will gradually lower today as the thermal trough gradient weakens
along the southern oregon coast. However, a mix of steep to very
steep wind driven seas will linger until around sunrise. Then expect
steep seas across much of the waters this morning along with areas
of small craft advisory level winds, mainly from CAPE blanco south
beyond 10 nm from shore. Steep seas are expected to linger into
the early afternoon for areas south of CAPE blanco then will subside.

Seas will increase Tuesday morning and afternoon as west swell
builds into the waters. Seas are expected to remain just below small
craft advisory levels with seas around 8 to 9 feet at 15 seconds on
Tuesday. Seas will then subside Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

Meanwhile winds will be light Tuesday and Wednesday with weak low
pressure over the waters.

Winds and seas will remain relatively light Thursday. Northwest
swell will move in late Friday, raising seas some. -cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt this morning for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt early this morning for
pzz356-376.

Mnf trw cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi55 min NNW 12 G 16
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi61 min ENE 7 G 8 52°F1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi41 minVar 6 G 1910.00 miFair64°F28°F26%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4665556N7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS33W5NW9NW11
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NW13NW11--SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmE3CalmS5CalmCalmS43Calm4W44NW8W7W44NW13NW9NW9CalmCalm--CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Port Orford
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Mon -- 12:20 AM PDT     3.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 AM PDT     6.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:17 PM PDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:16 PM PDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.43.94.65.56.26.46.25.44.22.81.40.3-0.2-00.71.93.34.55.55.95.85.24.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Mon -- 12:29 AM PDT     2.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:07 AM PDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM PDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM PDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.83.23.94.75.45.75.54.83.82.51.30.3-0.2-0.10.51.62.94.14.95.35.14.63.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.