Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:47 AM PST (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 855 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..Northern portion, S gales 35 kt...rising to gales 40 kt after midnight. Brookings southward, S wind 30 kt. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 17 seconds. Showers through the night. Slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..Northern portion, S gales 40 kt...becoming sw 30 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 30 kt... Veering to sw 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 11 to 14 ft. W swell 15 to 17 ft at 18 seconds... Building to 21 to 24 ft at 17 seconds in the afternoon. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft. W swell 19 to 22 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell 16 to 18 ft...subsiding to 13 ft and sw 1 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..S wind 30 kt except S 20 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft...building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 8 ft and W 8 to 9 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the evening, then...becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. Mixed swell W 7 ft and sw 8 ft...building to 9 ft and W 6 ft.
Mon..N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw in the evening, then... Veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft. Mixed swell W 8 ft and nw 5 ft...subsiding to 6 ft and W 5 ft.
PZZ300 855 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A very strong low pressure system will affect the waters through Thursday then another will follow on Friday. South gales will continue and seas will rapidly and substantially increase into Thursday with a very high long period southwest swell. Seas peak Thursday but gales are likely again Friday into Friday night. Seas will remain very high with dangerous bar conditions into Friday night and only slight improvement for Saturday. High and steep seas then persist through the weekend with the pattern remaining active.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 170531
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
931 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Update Updated the aviation and marine sections.

Aviation For the 17 06z tafs... A mix of ifr, MVFR, andVFR
ceilings will persist through Thursday evening with gusty southerly
winds, mountain obscuration, and rain and snow with a freezing level
around 6500 ft msl falling to 4500 ft msl.

Steady, moderate to heavy precipitation will be focused in the mount
shasta region, western siskiyou county and the SW oregon coast
ranges, where MVFR to ifr will prevail with terrain obscured. -dw

Marine Updated 830 pm pst Wednesday 16 january 2019...

south gales will fill into all of the southern oregon coastal waters
overnight as a cold front moves in. Seas are expected to rapidly
increase tonight into Thursday and be especially hazardous to any
smaller craft. With south wind waves and long period west swell,
seas will become quite chaotic. The gales will subside after
Thursday afternoon.

But, after the peak in seas of 30 to 35 feet on Thursday, seas
remain very high with dangerous bar conditions into Friday night.

Yet another front is likely to bring additional gales and very steep
seas Friday into Friday night. It should also be noted that these
very high seas with long period will create hazardous surf
conditions. Bar crossings and the surf zone will be very hazardous
due to strong currents and breaking waves.

Only slight improvement is expected Saturday. Seas
then diminish further but remain high and steep during the remainder
of the weekend as another front may bring advisory strength
southerly winds on Sunday into Sunday night.

Conditions will improve Sunday night into Tuesday morning as high
pressure builds over the region. -smith dw

Prev discussion issued 828 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019
discussion... A strong storm is centered near 130w offshore and is
impacting the forecast area tonight... And will continue to do so
through Thursday. The main impacts will be widespread moderate to
strong winds for many areas and moderate to heavy snow mainly
above 4000 feet in siskiyou county ca. Based on latest data,
observations showing heavy snow at snowmans summit, and a cooling
air mass overnight, we've upgraded to a winter storm warning for
all areas above 4000 feet in S central siskiyou co. We maintain a
winter weather advisory generally above 4000 feet in other areas.

Gusts today peaked at 80mph on squaw peak in the siskiyous, and
around 50 mph in the shasta valley, rogue valley (medford airport)
and the coast (cape blanco). Deep layer wind flow is peaking in
speed this evening and will weaken slightly overnight into Thursday
morning and will shift to a more southwesterly direction. This means
the coast will be impacted by high winds, and a high wind warning is
valid there tonight through Thursday afternoon. Based on expected
peaking wind fields and increasing instability Thursday morning,
that's when we expect the strongest coastal winds. Most other areas
will at least feature gusty winds during the day.

Back to snow... The air mass cools by several degrees c tonight, so
any areas seeing snow now will continue to be impacted by snow
through Thursday morning at least. Highway 89 in siskiyou county will
see heavy snow tonight into Thursday morning. One tricky location
tomorrow will be the i-5 corridor near mt shasta city. Black
butte summit sits at just below 4000ft, so right now we're
expecting around 2 inches of snow there. We expect mt shasta city
to see a rain snow mix or very wet snow that doesn't readily
accumulate. Precipitation finally lightens Thursday evening, even
over northern california. Please see the previous discussion below
for more details on the current storm and the potentially very
wet system due to affect the area over the weekend.

Prev discussion... Issued 302 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019
short term... Tonight through Saturday night... A warm front has
lifted north of the area, producing some light to moderate
precipitation and mountains snow as it passed by. Offshore,
however, lurks a textbook example of an occluded low, and a
powerful one at that. This will be the main weather producer over
the next few days as it slowly tracks to the northeast and
dissipates by Thursday evening. Until then, the region can expect
significant winds and plenty of rain, along with a fair amount of
mountain snow above roughly 4500 feet.

The winds associated with this system are interesting, in that the
initial front will not be a major wind producer at the coast, but
will generate gusty winds inland, particularly over the
mountains, in shasta valley, in the rogue valley near ashland,
and across the east side. Model peak gradients are not excessively
strong, but mid level winds are, and their direction is lined up
well with the terrain in the rogue and shasta valleys. East of
the cascades, winds will be gusty, but due to a more south to
southeasterly component, will not channel with the terrain as they
typically do. While this will lead to somewhat weaker, but still
gusty, winds in our usual trouble spots, it may produce stronger
winds in places we don not typically see them.

Meanwhile, at the coast, winds will see their strongest gradients
well after the front passes, associated more with the southeastern
side of the surface low. Again, gradients are well within
parameters for strong winds, but due to the weakening aspect of
the low and the southeasterly component in direction, the
strongest winds are expected at and south of CAPE blanco, rather
than along the entire coastline. Areas to the north of the cape
will still see gusty winds, particularly Thursday afternoon when
winds shift more onshore, but by then, the system will have
weakened considerably, and wind warnings are not expected to be
necessary. For more information on the wind hazard, see the
weather message at pdxnpwmfr.

Today into Thursday, mountain snow will also be a concern,
especially in siskiyou county where southerly winds are producing
significant upslope flow, and therefore dumping plenty of
precipitation. Snow levels of around 4500 feet are preventing many
impacts on populated areas and main roads, but any locations
above that should see significant snow amounts through tomorrow
morning. Lighter amounts are expected in the oregon cascades, and
this will occur over a longer period of time. So large impacts
are not expected at the passes, though several inches are possible
through Thursday night. For more details on the winter weather
headlines, see pdxwswmfr.

Once the system dissipates, we can expect some ridging to build
overhead, but at the surface, another warm front will arrive, and
showers are likely to continue until the next storm system
arrives Friday afternoon. This system appears more typical for
this time of year, with rain overspreading from west to east as
the front passes through. Winds will be a concern once again, in
the usual places, but snow levels are expected to be well above
6000 feet, so no snow impacts are expected. Models show the front
stalling out in our region, and this would keep moderate to heavy
rain in the area from the time the front arrives Friday until well
into Saturday night, but the exact location of this rain band is
uncertain, and will hopefully be nailed down in over the next few
forecast cycles. -bpn
long term... Sunday through Wednesday night... Once again models
are in remarkably good agreement through the remainder of the
extended period. Models have slowed the progression of the upper
trough through the region into Sunday with the region in the
favorable left exit region of the jet. With the increased
southerly flow up to 700 mb an unstable air mass will be over the
region and with the favorable dynamics have added a slight chance
of thunderstorms Sunday. Showers taper off quickly into Monday as
an upper ridge quickly builds into the pacific northwest and winds
aloft become northerly. With the jet north of the region fronts
will move across north of the region with the ridge in place
through Tuesday. The ridge flattens westward and the next front
washes out over the area as is moves down the back side of the
ridge Wednesday. -sven

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst Thursday for orz029>031.

High wind warning from 1 am to 4 pm pst Thursday for orz021-022.

High surf warning from 7 am Thursday to 4 pm pst Friday for
orz021-022.

Wind advisory until 1 am pst Thursday for orz026.

Ca... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst Thursday for caz084-085.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Thursday for
caz080-081-083.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst Thursday above 5500 feet in
the for caz082.

High wind warning until 1 am pst Thursday for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning until 4 pm pst Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 pm Thursday to 10 am pst Friday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Nsk dw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi36 min SSE 32 G 41 55°F 52°F996.5 hPa
SNTO3 38 mi78 min SSW 1 47°F 998 hPa47°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi72 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 51°F995.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi52 minSSE 12 G 235.00 miRain Fog/Mist51°F48°F89%1000 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5E534S4NE3E7E7333Calm3CalmCalmS5SE54SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE443E7E443SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 01:34 AM PST     3.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:57 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM PST     7.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:03 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:15 PM PST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM PST     5.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.13.13.54.35.36.377.26.85.84.531.60.60.20.31.12.23.44.455.14.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.