Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:32PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:10 AM PDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 243 Am Pdt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect from 8 am pdt this morning through this afternoon...
Today..S wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt early in the morning, then...rising to 25 kt in the late morning and early afternoon...becoming sw 15 kt late afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, se wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then...veering to W 10 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt...backing to S in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 11 to 12 ft at 15 seconds. Rain likely in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..S wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Sat night..SW wind 5 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft.
Sun..E wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mixed swell W 7 to 9 ft and sw 5 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 9 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft. W swell 7 ft...subsiding to 5 ft and sw 4 ft.
PZZ300 243 Am Pdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. South gales and very steep wind driven seas will develop this morning and continue into Friday afternoon. Long period west swell will also build today through Saturday before subsiding during the day Sunday. After a brief break early Sunday, another strong low pressure system will arrive from the southwest Sunday night resulting in another round of increasing south winds and steepening seas. Unsettled weather is expected through much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221341
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
640 am pdt Fri mar 22 2019
the aviation and marine discussions have been updated... .

Discussion A cold front is approaching the coast this morning,
and deep
southerly flow ahead of the front is bringing increasing winds to
the coastal waters and some inland areas. The last time I was on the
forecast desk was about 4 days ago, and much has changed since then.

The system today has trended towards a more southerly flow that
results in precipitation focused over northern california and the
coast... And typically results in less precipitation over west side
valleys like medford and roseburg. In any case, it looks wetter than
the Wednesday system that ran into a very dry and warm air mass and
brought little to no rain in most areas.

Winds will increase during the morning, especially at the coast, in
the shasta valley, over the mountains, and in the bear creek valley.

Latest observations, in combination with high-resolution model data
from the local WRF 2km and hrrr, suggest that advisory criteria will
be met in the shasta valley, so we're issuing an advisory there
through this afternoon due to gusty southerly winds.

A cold pool aloft arrives behind the front on Saturday with 500mb
temperatures dipping below -30c, and this is in the coolest 10
percent for 500mb temperatures for this time of year. This should
bring enough instability to areas west of the cascades, to include
the coast and coastal waters, for some thunderstorms and small hail.

Data shows late march is when we see an uptick in thunderstorm
frequency in jackson county, so this follows climatology to some
degree. High-resolution models indicate some enhanced convection
Saturday too. Wind fields are not impressive on Saturday, so
we're not expecting many (if any) strong storms. Still, gusty
winds and small hail will be possible with any storms.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will feature near-freezing
temperatures in many west side valleys if skies clear out. Models
suggest a dry air mass moving in Sunday morning, so we've kept
mention of frost in the forecast. Growers should keep this in mind
for planning purposes. We'll keep an eye on this and message this
potential if necessary.

Another front arrives Monday and looks like the strongest in the
past week+, again with deep southerly flow, stronger than today's
system. The naefs (gefs and canadian ensembles combined)
suggests the southerly wind field at 700mb will be in the top 1
percent for this time of year. This will support high
precipitation rates in siskiyou county. We've lowered snow levels
near mount shasta city to between 3500 and 4000 feet for Sunday
night Monday morning. Latest data suggests that at least snowmans
summit on highway 89 will be affected by snowfall, and this could
accumulate on untreated roadways given the nighttime morning
nature of the system. Winds Monday should become gusty in many of
the same areas as today, but winds should trend higher with
Monday's system. Please see the previous long- term discussion
below. The main change from that is the lower snow levels around
the mount shasta city area Monday morning.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon afd... Monday 25
mar through Thursday 28 mar 2019.

Unsettled weather is expected much of next week, though we may
catch a break on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will feature a broad closed low out around
45n and 140w on Monday. A frontal system associated with this low
will move onshore Monday morning and through the area bringing a
period of steadier precipitation across most of the CWA through
Monday evening. Heaviest precipitation will be from the coast
range of SW oregon to western and central siskiyou county, where
amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches are likely. Snow levels still look to
be about 4500 feet with most accumulating snow occurring above
5000 feet. Expect a period of steady south to southeast winds pre-
front in the morning, then winds shift to SW and remain breezy as
the front moves through. Precipitation becomes more showery
following the frontal passage. We've added a slight chance of
thunder to the immediate coast and coastal waters as mid-level
instability increases behind the front.

We're expecting broad SW flow aloft to set up over the area
Monday night into Tuesday, and while isolated to scattered
showers could remain, most areas should catch a break in between
fronts. The closed low will pinwheel southeastward offshore sending
another short wave impulse and frontal system through the area
mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday. Once again, the bulk of the
moisture precipitation is expected across our southern and western
zones, but areas to the north will see some precipitation too.

A showery pattern will continue with moist, onshore flow Wednesday
night through Thursday as the closed low offshore gradually opens up
into a trough and crosses the pacnw. -spilde

Aviation For the 22 12z tafs... A cold front moving through today
will bring valley rain and mountain snow above 4000 to 5000 ft msl
elevations today, followed by showers this evening through tonight.

Precipitation is expected to spread to the cascades by about noon
and across the east side this afternoon through tonight. Some wind
shear is possible along and near the coast, including at koth,
between 15z and 21z. MVFR and partial terrain obscurations are
expected to develop along the coast into the umpqua basin in the 18z
to 02z time frame. West of the cascadesVFR is expected to prevail
in medford, but MVFR and partial terrain obscurations are expected
for most areas after 18z. MVFR is also expected, at times, across
the east side in rain and snow. Btl

Marine Updated 630 am pdt Friday, 22 march 2019...

south gales and very steep wind driven seas will develop this
morning and continue into the afternoon. Seas are likely to peak in
heights this afternoon into this evening. Long period west swell
will also build today through Saturday before subsiding during the
day Sunday. After a brief break early Sunday, another strong low
pressure system will arrive from the southwest Sunday night
resulting in another round of increasing south winds and
steepening seas that could reach gales in some areas. Unsettled
weather is expected through much of next week. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement until 5 am pdt early this morning for
orz021-022.

Ca... Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am pdt Sunday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

- gale warning from 8 am this morning to 5 pm pdt this afternoon
for pzz350-356-370-376.

- hazardous seas warning from 8 am this morning to 5 pm pdt this
afternoon for pzz350-356.

- hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for pzz370-
376.

Btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi41 min S 28 G 35
46128 38 mi71 min SE 14 47°F 52°F
SNTO3 38 mi101 min SSW 1.9 37°F 1014 hPa37°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi95 min 52°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi15 minE 38.00 miRain46°F43°F89%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3--35SW56S55--S4Calm33E3E4533SE5E7SE7E3
1 day agoSE6SE43Calm4CalmW6W7NW5SW4CalmSE6
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2 days agoNW3W63S9S8SE93S53NW5CalmCalm5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Fri -- 01:23 AM PDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:42 PM PDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:48 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.276.964.52.71.20.20.10.82.23.95.56.56.76.14.83.21.60.50.20.723.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.