Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Sherburne, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:34PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:28 AM EST (06:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 628 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday evening...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales after midnight. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Lake effect rain. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 11 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow ending. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201711190415;;617905 FZUS51 KBUF 182328 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 628 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-190415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY
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location: 42.74, -75.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 190605
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
105 am est Sun nov 19 2017

A strong cold front will blast through the area this morning,
followed by strong gusty winds and colder conditions. Lingering
scattered rain showers will change over to snow showers. Lake
effect snow will develop late today and last into Monday. Snow
may be heavy at times in parts of north central new york, with
at least scattered snow showers and flurries elsewhere.

Near term through today
820 pm update... Patchy areas of rain continue to sweep ne
across the area. Surface warm front seems to be hung up along
the mohawk valley so temps across the northern zones continue to
hold in the 30s. To the west, the cold front is about to enter
extreme western ny. Front will sweep east early this morning
causing temps to fall in the western zones before daybreak, and
across the area shortly after. Made adjustments to temps and
winds at this update, pop and weather look pretty good. Previous
discussion below.

Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the batch of
widespread rain expected tonight, ahead of a cold front moving
through early Sunday morning, shifting the winds to the
northwest and strengthening through the morning hours... With the
rain tapering off and changing to snow by the afternoon.

A wind advisory is in effect from 4 am Sunday morning until 5 pm
Sunday evening for all of central ny and NE pa.

A potent low pressure system currently over the mid mississippi
valley region this afternoon will lift to the NE through the eastern
great lakes tonight Sunday morning. This system will intensify at it
moves into the area tonight... Pulling nwd a warm air mass behind a
ewd oriented warm front which will be the focus of strong layer
lifting and an area of widespread light to moderate rain showers
this evening through tonight. The air mass within this warm sector
will be relatively rich... With pwats around 1 inch and 850mb temps
around +7 to +10 deg c. There may also be a weak layer of
instability aloft as well, which could enhance some of the rain
showers, and even trigger a few strikes of lightning. Rainfall
amounts will range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch.

This system will have essentially two cold fronts, and the first
blast will arrive early Sunday morning around 4-7am... Which will act
to shift the winds from SW to nw, and bring in a colder air mass
which will begin to change the rain over to snow. There should be at
least a brief period of time Sunday afternoon where the moisture
wrapping around the system will be able to fill in behind the system
and produce a quick light dusting of snow over a large portion of
the forecast area. The most favorable area of light accumulating
snow... Less than an inch... Sunday afternoon will be east of the
finger lakes into the catskills and mohawk valley.

One of the main concerns on Sunday will be the strong NW winds that
develop behind the cold front Sunday morning. Deep mixing in the
boundary layer and steepening low level lapse rates in the cooling
in air mass will allow strong winds aloft to mix easily down to the
surface. Expect sustained NW winds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts 40
to 50 mph possible. The combination of recent rainfall and these
strong gusty winds may cause scattered power outages from falling
trees and branches. The winds are expected to be the strongest in
the higher elevations... And should begin to subside by the late
afternoon and early evening.

Short term tonight through Tuesday
Issued our first winter storm watch of the winter season for a
potential heavy lake effect snow event for onondaga, oneida
and madison counties from late afternoon Sunday to Monday
evening. A strong west to northwest flow of cold air will pour
across central ny and northeast pa Sunday night into Monday. The
mean flow under the inversion is around 290 degrees which would
direct a lake effect snow band close to the thruway corridor
initially Sunday night and early Monday. 850 mb temperatures
fall to around -11c or so which leads to a 22c lake ontario to
850 mb temperature difference which is decent instability. Model
soundings show that the inversion level is up close to 700 mb
with very steep lapse rates right in the -12c to -18c
temperature range which is the maximum growth regime for ice
crystals. This occurs around 09z Monday or so. Model also
suggest a nice lake to lake connection at this time as well.

This will all occur close to the Monday morning commute and will
be the first significant snowfall for the syracuse area so we
opted for the winter storm watch for lake effect snow.

The low-level flow will shift more westerly by Sunday afternoon
and the band will head north to northern oneida county. With
the wind slackening Monday we expect the heaviest snow mainly
northwest oneida county on Monday. We believe upwards of 10
inches or so are possible northwest oneida county and far
northern onondaga counties. Farther south and east the amounts
will drop off quickly with southern onondaga, southern madison
and southeast oneida county seeing just a few inches at best.

The lake effect snow will end by Monday night as the low- level
flow turns southwest.

For the rest of the region, there will be occasional lighter
snow showers and flurries with cold west northwest winds Sunday
night and Monday. Accumulations will be less than one inch most
places with maybe a couple inches in the higher terrain of
otsego, cortland and chenango counties.

For Tuesday, a drier southwest flow will predominate and lead
to sunny skies and milder temperatures with highs reaching well
into the 40s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the gfs, euro and cmc all
show chilly air in place and a westerly low-level flow. Hence we
have just a few lake effect scattered snow showers in our
northern areas and mainly flurries south. For Wednesday night
and Thursday, high pressure dominates and it will be mainly dry
and chilly. Friday will see a few snow showers or flurries in
our northern counties as some warm air advection kicks in. Used
superblend and also blended with surrounding wfos.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
06z update...

low pressure system is causing showers and deteriorating
conditions early this morning. Low level wind shear is also
present in the predawn hours, due to a south-southwest jet of
35-45 knots ahead of approaching front. The strong cold front
will blast through the region early this morning 07z-11z with
fuel alternate to ifr conditions. The front will be accompanied
by a quick shift of gusty wind out the southwest to west,
eventually settling on west-northwest later today. Sustained
15-20 knots, with gusts of 28-36 knots, will be common late
morning through afternoon before diminishing a bit in the
evening. Though restriction improvements will occur in a general
sense late morning onward, there will also be lake effect snow
showers developing which could cause degradations. This will be
most likely ksyr-krme this evening, where restrictions of at
least ifr may be fairly persistent due to lake effect snow and
blowing snow. Directly under snow bands, conditions may get
below alternate minimums at times. We will also have to watch
for pieces of the lake erie band reaching towards kelm late
afternoon and perhaps kbgm-kith this evening.


late Sunday night through Monday... Lake effect snow with ifr-
or-worse vis restrictions for ksyr-krme through midday Monday,
lifting north after that. MainlyVFR elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Restrictions possible
in scattered rain snow showers.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory from 4 am early this morning to 5 pm est this
afternoon for paz038>040-043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Wind advisory from 4 am early this morning to 5 pm est this
afternoon for nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-

Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Monday evening
for nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Bjt dgm
short term... Djn
long term... Djn
aviation... Mdp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 94 mi59 min 43°F 995 hPa42°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY34 mi36 minE 810.00 miOvercast43°F42°F97%988.2 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE7E9SE6E7SE7SE8E7E9E9E7E10SE10SE7SE5E6SE7SE6E7SE8E10E8E7E11E8
1 day agoNW14
2 days agoSE8S10SE7S13

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Sun -- 05:16 AM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:46 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:38 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Sun -- 04:59 AM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:21 PM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:51 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.