Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sherburne, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:31 AM EST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201901171000;;475925 Fzus51 Kbuf 170538 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1231 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-171000- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Overnight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Occasional snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY
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location: 42.74, -75.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 170547
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1247 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A few snow showers and flurries are likely this evening as
colder air streams into the area. After a quiet day Thursday,
light snow will spread across the area Thursday night into early
Friday as a weak low moves from the great lakes to northern new
york. We are still looking at the possibility of a major
snowstorm Saturday night into Sunday as a powerful low moves up
the east coast, followed by frigid air.

Near term through today
955 pm update...

flurries and light lake effect snow showers will slowly taper
off overnight as drier air moves down from canada. Partial
clearing and low relative humidities will allow for a few
readings below zero overnight across northern oneida county.

Much of the northeastern forecast area will experience
temperatures in the low single digits by Thursday morning.

4 pm update...

cold front pushing through the finger lakes at this time will
push east this afternoon with snow showers and perhaps a heavier
burst. Behind that, weak cold advection will trigger some light
lake effect snow showers and flurries, especially over central
ny into the western catskills. There could be a quick dusting
but otherwise very little weather overnight.

Drier air closer to the surface ridge will allow some below
zero lows over the extreme north and east of the forecast area,
with single numbers elsewhere across central ny and into the
teens in nepa.

Short term tonight through Friday night
Rather weak low moves up from lake erie to the st lawrence
valley Thursday night into Friday. System has little moisture
with it and weak dynamics as it pushes through. Some upglide
will develop light snow Thursday evening into Friday morning
which will likely result in an inch or two of snow and possible
a slick morning commute. Cold front passes through the area
before 18z bringing additional snow showers that continue into
the cold advection in the afternoon and on Friday evening.

High pressure builds in by Saturday morning cutting off any
leftover lake effect and allowing single digit morning lows once
again.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Impactful winter weather this weekend likely...

operational model and ensemble agreement continues to be very high
for a large scale storm system with impactful wintry weather
this weekend. A strong area of low pressure is expected to
develop in the southern plains by Saturday with high pressure
building across the northern plains into the great lakes and
northeast. Considerable moisture will pulled northward ahead of
the developing low pressure system which will ride northeast
along the baroclinic zone with the previous cold front.

Uncertainty is still present regarding the exact track of the
low which depends on where the boundary sets up on Friday along
with the depth of cold air in place. Several mid level features
will also gradually phase through the duration of the event. A
quicker phase would result in a more northward track and vice
versa. A shift in the track to the north would result in more
mixing further north with the potential for some rain as well. A
shift south with the track may take the higher impact snow
potential south of portions of our area. The current track is
still expected to be south of the region with snowfall expected
regionwide and mixing in NE pa.

As for our weather, the considerable amount of moisture will likely
overrun the boundary and lead to the development of
widespread precipitation to our south and west on
Saturday with snow developing Saturday afternoon
with a fresh cold airmass in place. Widespread precipitation is
most likely Saturday afternoon into a good portion of Sunday.

With the track likely staying south of the region most of the
precipitation is still expected to be snow. However, a warm
layer around 850 mb will be coming northward into portions that
will likely see temperatures stay below or near freezing. As a
result, sleet and freezing rain become more of a threat as well
across northeastern pa. The mid-level warm air advection may be
offset some by dynamical cooling,so this will be something to
watch. Temperatures generally look to be in the 10's and 20's
with some spots around freezing for a time in northeast pa.

Looking at this storm from a mesoscale point of view, modeling
at this early juncture shows the potential for some banding
possibly leading to heavy snowfall rates late Saturday night.

Indications of a dry slot are showing up for the start of the
day Sunday before another band of snow moves through on the back
edge.

Bottom lime if traveling or have plans this weekend it will be
a good idea to keep track of the developments of this storm
given the potential for impacts across our region. It is also
too early to pinpoint snow totals given the likelihood for
shifts in the track till all the features enter the upper-air
network which is still a day or two away.

Monday morning we remain stuck in NW flow behind our exiting low
pressure system, with a ridge of high pressure building over the
region in its wake. Lingering chances for snow showers remain in ne
pa early on due to the exiting system, but we should see a
transition over to mainly a finger lakes lake-effect snow shower
regime for Monday. Otherwise, Monday is looking breezy and very
cold. 850mb temperatures fall as low as -20 to -30c Monday morning,
with morning lows near and below zero - and even the negative teens
across northern oneida county. Highs only reach the single digits to
low teens. Winds are staying in the 10-15mph range at the surface,
and although bufkit momentum transfer would give us the potential
for 20-30mph gusts after sunrise, this seems a bit overzealous. I
will limit gusts to up to 20mph after 12z Monday, gradually falling
back Monday evening. With gusty winds and bitter temperatures, wind
chills as low as -15 to -30f are expected Monday morning, with
little improvement during the day as wind chills still hover in the
single digits and teens below zero.

Chances for a few lake-effect flurries snow showers linger from
through around sunrise Tuesday, but then as the ridge of high
pressure slides eastward, we should expect a wind shift more to the
sw to help shut down lake-effect snow. The GFS then wants to quickly
bring in another low pressure system from the plains into the ohio
river valley throughout the day Tuesday, with snow showers beginning
across our western zones as early as 0z Wednesday as this feature
tracks into western ny pa. The euro, meanwhile, does not drag this
same feature into our area at all and holds off on any precip
chances until late Wednesday night. Ultimately, this forecast will
include a slight chance for some snow showers Tuesday, possibly
transitioning to rain snow showers in NE pa Wednesday as SW flow
also brings in warming temperatures. Look for lows in the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning - with cooler
temperatures possible where breaks in the clouds occur. Highs
generally in the 20s are expected Tuesday, and warmer temperatures
Wednesday starting generally in the teens and peak in the low mid
30s.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Narrow band of lake effect clouds and flurries will persist
through much of the overnight INVOF ksyr, kith and kbgm. Cloud
bases are mainly between 2800-4000 ft agl. These clouds will
dissipate just before or around daybreak, bringing mostly clear
skies. Otherwise generalVFR conditions are expected as the
winds lighten this morning under high pressure. Winds then turn
south-southeast this afternoon and evening, 6-12 kts. Clouds
thicken and lower after sunset, with MVFR CIGS vis returning in
light snow after about 18 02-05z at most terminals. Fuel
alternate restrictions in light snow also possible toward
18 05-06z and beyond.

Outlook...

late Thursday night through Friday... A passing system will
bring a good chance for snow and associated restrictions.

Friday night through Saturday morning...VFR expected.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday... Restrictions expected in
mainly snow and blowing snow cny with mixed precipitation kavp.

Monday... Early restrictions in snow showers, followed byVFR

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm djp
short term... Dgm
long term... Hlc mwg
aviation... Dgm mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 76 mi50 min SE 5.1 G 7 12°F 1028.4 hPa-1°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 94 mi62 min Calm 22°F 1027 hPa11°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY34 mi39 minSE 310.00 miFair5°F-2°F72%1029.2 hPa

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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmSE3E3E3E3E5SE5S4S6S4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W3SW5SW5SW7SW4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:08 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:44 PM EST     5.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.743.831.91.20.70.2-0.10.523.54.55.15.24.73.62.61.91.10.30.10.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EST     5.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.83.42.51.610.60.10.21.12.63.84.654.94.23.12.31.60.80.20.51.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.