Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sherburne, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday May 25, 2019 11:00 PM EDT (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:26AMMoonset 10:29AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905252130;;446064 Fzus51 Kbuf 251754 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 154 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-252130- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 154 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY
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location: 42.74, -75.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 260234
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1034 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area during the
first part of tonight, then diminish after midnight. A cold
front will move south across the area late tonight and Sunday
before stalling over pennsylvania. Some lingering showers early
Sunday will give way to high pressure and a a brief break from
any rain through Monday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 1030 pm Saturday...

forecast remains mostly on-track with convection weakening, but
a wide area of moderate to heavy rain will still continue for
the next couple hours as it pushes east. Just made some minor
tweaks to pop as system is moving through a bit faster than
expected, so had to end rainfall on the backside and push it
eastward across the CWA through the early morning hours with
only low chance to slight chance expected after 6z.

As of 730 pm Saturday...

current focus is on MCS currently pressing across western ny pa.

The trend shows weakening, but will have to continue to monitor
for possible strong wind gusts as it enters our western zone in
the next couple hours. Updated pop through midnight based on
current radar and trends, basically trying to time out the line
of showers and storms as it pulls eastward. Best instability
remains across western ny and into the central southern tier and
there will be some possibility of low-end severe winds.

However, that threat should significantly decrease for points
east as much more stable air is present further east with
dewpoints only in the mid to upper 50s.

Previous discussion...

another complex day, especially for messaging the forecast, as
individual features bring brief periods of shower activity and
sunshine from time to time. The 850mb warm front is nearly
through the area this afternoon with the first round of showers
on the way out. Destabilization was occurring rapidly over wny
and nwpa with MLCAPE rising above 500 j kg. Effective bulk shear
was also over that area. We should see further destabilization
closer to our CWA with dansville and hornell sitting in the low
80s. Thunderstorms have initially fired on the lake erie shore,
and additional storms are expected to develop through the late
afternoon and evening as height falls associated with a weak
upper wave approaches from the oh valley. Cams models suggest
initial activity passing across mainly the finger lakes to the
southern tier between 5 pm and sundown. Our eastern zones are
more stable. A second round is possible later this evening and
for a part of the overnight hours. Utilized a blend of guidance
including model radar and MOS to capture the flavor of the
precip tendencies outliened above. Upper wave should be moving
east of the area after 06z and any rain chances will diminish by
morning.

Warm and moist air advecting into the region will mean milder
overnight lows than the past couple of nights with readings in
the 50s to lower 60s.

Short term Sunday night
A cold front will make its way south across the region on Sunday
with a variety of clouds and sunshine. This feature may trigger
some showers, especially across northern pa where there will be
enough time for heating to destabilize the atmosphere. Further
north, high pressure building into the area should allow for a
mostly dry day, especially after the late morning.

Temperatures will be near, or slightly warmer than today with
additional sunshine expected and a head start on the morning
temperatures. Look for afternoon highs into the 70s with a
couple areas south of the front (in nepa) approaching 80.

High pressure over the area on Sunday night will bring on mainly
clear skies and cooler overnight lows in the 50s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Main concerns in the first part of the long term remain focused
on the dry quiet weather with warm temperatures on memorial
day... Followed by the next round of showers and thunderstorms
developing early Tuesday morning... Expanding intensifying
through the day Tuesday, and then tapering off Tuesday night
from west to east.

Weak ridge of high pressure across the area on Monday, along with a
dry air mass will allow for very pleasant weather conditions for
memorial day. Skies are expected to be partly to mostly sunny with a
light north wind and temperatures in the low to mid 70s in central
ny and into the mid to upper 70s in NE pa.

Cloud cover will be increasing through the afternoon and into the
evening hours as the next low pressure system takes shape over the
swrn great lakes and a warm front extending to the east lifts north
through oh pa. This entire system will translate ewd through the
night and across ny ERN pa through the day Tuesday. Temperatures
will likely remain on the cooler side with on and off rain showers
through the day... And isolated thunderstorms as well. The
latitudinal position of the warm front and track of the low will
play an important role in determining where and if strong to severe
storms will develop. At this time the boundary appears to be be
oriented near the ny pa border... Which would keep most of the
stronger instability and resulting storms to the south. Will have to
keep an eye on how this system evolves through the next several
model cycles.

Convection tapers off Tuesday night with the loss of daytime
heating... But a west to east progression of rain showers isolated
storms will likely continue through late Tuesday night early wed
morning.

Temperatures on Tuesday will have a hard time getting out of the 60s
in the WRN catskills... But into the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

Cooler temperatures expected Tuesday night... Into the lower 50s east
and upper 50s west.

The dry weather Wednesday morning will be short-lived as the next
slow-moving wave drags across the region Wednesday through Thursday
with more rain showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in
late Thursday night through Friday with dry weather expected.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be warmer, with highs in the lower
80s in ny to mid 80s in NE pa. A bit of a cooling trend will set up
Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 70s close to
80... Settling into the upper 60s and lower mid 70s by Friday.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
A mid level short wave moving through the region this evening
will bring thunderstorms through the new york state terminals
through 04z with MVFR conditions likely. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected due to fairly stable airmass across the local
area. At kavp, the activity will likely weaken to just showers
with occurrence most likely between 03z-06z. After the
convection, widespread MVFR alternate required ceilings are
forecast. Conditions will improve toVFR at all sites by mid
morning with scattered cumulus during the afternoon around 4k
feet.

Winds s-se at 8-12 knots becoming becoming SW overnight then
northwest on Sunday at 8-12 knots with gusts during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

memorial day...VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday through Thursday... MainlyVFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorm may bring brief restriction at some terminals in
the afternoon and evening hours.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jab
near term... Jab mpk
short term... Dab mwg
long term... Dab
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 76 mi49 min S 8.9 G 11 65°F 1011.5 hPa64°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY34 mi68 minSSW 62.50 miRain66°F59°F78%1013.4 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3E6S4CalmSE4SE3SE7E9SE9SE6S10SE8SE5S9S7S11SE10SE6E10E5S6S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.621.61.10.81.32.53.84.65.15.14.53.52.51.81.10.30.31.22.53.444.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:19 AM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:04 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.31.91.5111.8344.654.84.132.21.50.80.30.71.72.83.544.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.