Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:30PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:41 PM EDT (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 7:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0044.000000t0000z-170811t2045z/ 442 Pm Edt Fri Aug 11 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 445 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4205 8323 4206 8323 4219 8319 4222 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 4201 8315 time...mot...loc 2042z 269deg 38kt 4210 8301
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201708112052;;233222 FZUS73 KDTX 112042 RRA MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 442 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017 LCZ423-112052-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 220024
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
824 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 305 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
a low pressure system and cold front will bring rain and
thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Showers will linger
into Tuesday morning until frontal passage. It will turn much
cooler and less humid behind this system for mid to late week.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 305 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
primary short term fcst concerns involve determining convective
potential through tonight into early Tuesday.

The approaching cold front will cause development of rain and
thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. The most likely
time frame for convection will be from around 05z Tue - 12z tue.

Severe wx is unlikely but a few strong to marginally severe storms
are possible given sufficient deep layer shear on the order of
30-40 kts in conjunction with moderate instability. Ample forcing
will come from the approaching front and LLJ and there is plenty
of low level moisture in place.

Several factors going against severe wx potential include
unfavorable cold frontal timing and lack of stronger instability.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible overnight due to strong
1000-850 mb moisture transport and precipitable water values
approaching two inches. However only isolated urban small stream
type flooding issues are anticipated given the progressive nature
of the convection overnight.

Showers and isolated non severe storms will linger into mid to
late Tuesday morning prior to FROPA with decreasing cloud cover
and breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon after fropa. Skies will
gradually clear Tuesday night as a much drier airmass gradually
advects in. Rather extensive diurnally driven CU will develop
during the day Wednesday before skies clear again Wednesday night.

Regarding late this afternoon and early evening a few showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly east of us-131 where
moderate instability (ml CAPE values around 1500 j kg) has developed
along with some sfc convergence with the lake breeze. None of this
activity will be severe but brief heavy rainfall is possible.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)
issued at 305 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
as we have been writing about for nearly a week, and the models have
persistently forecast, a significant and prolonged cooler then
normal temperature pattern is on the way. It could well be that most
locations in SW mi will not see highs at or above 80s till at the
middle of next week if then. Actually the GEFS ensembles keep highs
below 80 through sept 5th. The 12z ECMWF has highs around 80 on the
2nd of september. Clearly we are in for a prolonged period of colder
than normal temperatures.

The overall upper air pattern favors a longwave trough through most
of eastern canada and the northeastern CONUS through the middle of
next weekend. We do have a strong system in the north pacific that
comes from northern russia... Which crosses the dateline later
Monday into early Tuesday. That should kick some upper wave energy
out of the system currently in the gulf of alaska. At some point
early in the following week this will give should give us our next
significant precipitation event but the models are all over the
place as to when and how this happens. One thing for sure, not big
warm ups any time soon.

I added showers to our NE CWA on Thursday afternoon and early
evening as a northern stream shortwave, assoicated with the coldest
pool, of air moves into michigan. There is enough instability and
just enough low to mid level moisture that I do think we will see
scattered afternoon showers north and east of grand rapids. Other
than that it may remain dry in this area until beyond Monday the
28th.

This second cold push may just be cold enough that areas north and
east of grand rapids could have lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday
morning and maybe even Saturday morning. In the coldest locations
like leota, I would not be surprised if there is a touch of frost
Friday or Saturday morning.

My bottom line to this is cooler than normal temperatures and little
in the way of meaningful precipitation from Thu through Mon (and
beyond).

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 803 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
thunderstorms are developing over lake michigan at 00z. This trend
will continue with the area likely expanding through the course of
the evening and into tonight. We should see showers and storms
become prevalent across the area over the next 6 hours, or through
200am. The showers will gradually move east and southeast later on
tonight into Tuesday morning as a cold front slides through the
region. MVFR conditions will likely develop later this evening
with restrictions to visibility due to showers and storms. Late
tonight and into Tuesday morning MVFR ceilings will become
prevalent.VFR weather will return through the course of Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will ramp up on Tuesday reaching the 12-25 knot
range from the northwest.

Marine
Issued at 305 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
will issue a small craft advisory from early Tuesday morning
through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will veer to the west to
northwest and increase Tuesday which in conjunction with cool air
advection will result in a significant increase in wave heights
from early Tuesday through the day. Wave heights will remain
hazardous to small craft through Wednesday afternoon. Thx for
coord on small craft headline iwx apx.

Hydrology
Issued at 305 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
area rivers are around normal levels for the time of the year and
well below bankfull. Though we are going to get localized heavy rain
of up to an inch tonight into Tuesday morning, most areas will not
see even minor river flooding. Some water covered roads are
possible. No significant precipitation is expected Wednesday through
Sunday, so any rises on rivers will have time to recover.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for miz037-043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Wdm
aviation... Duke
hydrology... 63
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi41 min S 12 G 14 78°F 1012.9 hPa (-1.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi41 min S 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 87 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 83°F 1016.1 hPa (-0.3)71°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI11 mi48 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds80°F69°F69%1014.8 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi48 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F70°F72%1015.6 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair80°F69°F72%1014.9 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi46 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F70°F73%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S3S3Calm5SW6W5SW6W7W5SW6S6S8
1 day agoW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3S6S4W7W7SW6W65Calm4W5CalmCalm
2 days agoSW5SW6SW7W5SW4W4W4W4SW5W3W3NW6NW7NW9NW10545NW8W9W7W9W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.