Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:38PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:24 AM EDT (05:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 547 Pm Edt Thu Apr 20 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 45 nm west of luna pier...or 46 nm west of north cape... Moving east at 40 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Monroe harbor and bolles harbor of refuge around 700 pm edt. Woodland beach...stony point and detroit beach around 705 pm edt. Detroit river light...lake erie metropark harbor and estral beach around 710 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach...stony point...detroit beach and estral beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. This a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots...and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake saint claire. Lat...lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4202 8324 4207 8323 4207 8314 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201704202315;;007288 FZUS73 KDTX 202147 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 547 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-202315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 290024
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
824 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 333 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
a weak wave will move along a stationary boundary through the ohio
valley late this evening into Saturday morning. This will bring a
round of light precipitation, mainly affecting southern sections of
lower michigan. The bigger story will come over the weekend as a
deepening upper level low swing from the plains into the midwest.

Abundant moisture will surge northward, resulting in periods of
showers and thunderstorms from late Saturday into Monday. Much
quieter weather lies beyond Monday with below normal temperatures.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 333 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
a heavy rain event is looking more likely beginning Saturday
afternoon and extending through the second half of the weekend.

Otherwise, light rain showers are possible late this afternoon
into early Saturday morning.

Visible satellite imagery continues to show extensive cloud cover
streaming in from the south this afternoon. Light to moderate rain
has developed along a quasi-stationary boundary, which stretches
from central illinois eastward to central ohio. This boundary will
continue to meander south of lower michigan through early Saturday.

In the meantime, a disturbance moves along the boundary late this
evening with rain showers lifting northward in lower michigan. Much
of the activity will be light in nature into Saturday morning before
a lull between rainfall late Saturday morning and early Saturday
afternoon.

Front begins to lift north as a warm front Saturday afternoon with a
strengthening ridge developing over the southeastern u.S. The
boundary remains south of lower michigan with several waves of
energy moving along the boundary from SW to ne. Much of the rainfall
will be convective in nature over mo/il. As it travels north, it
will provide a broad area of rainfall with some embedded
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

The boundary lifts further north Sunday with copious amounts of
moisture streaming northward out of the gulf. The front will also
play a large role in highs reaching the 70s near the mi/in border
and 40s through central lower michigan. Pwats reach well above one
inch late Saturday and stay there through all of Sunday,
especially through the heart of the cwa. Guidance in good
agreement with placing the heaviest rainfall into the SW corner of
lower michigan. Total rainfall amounts look to reach the 2-4 inch
realm through early Monday morning. Localized amounts higher than
4 inches are possible, especially in/near any convection.

Therefore, a flood watch will be issued from Saturday afternoon
through early Monday to cover flood possibilities for low lying,
flood prone areas.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 333 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
the rain will gradually lighten up and become more scattered through
the early part of next week. We will see a chilly period Monday
night through Thursday when some patchy overnight frost will be
possible. Then a drier and slightly warmer period is expected
late in the week.

Surface and upper low should be over NE ia Monday morning. This
heads northeast into the u.P. By Monday night. Monday morning rains
look likely still, but it should become lighter and more scattered
Monday afternoon. The system only slowly heads into canada, so it
will probably take until Tuesday afternoon or evening before we
finally see the rain completely end.

Chilly air follows the system, with h8 temps dropping to around -3c
by Tuesday night. As skies clear we may have the risk of frost late
Tuesday night and again Wed and Thu nights. At this point low temps
appear to be in the mid 30s each night, so the risk to area fruit
trees should be low, but stay tuned. A short wave comes through thu
night or fri, but it appears the surface reflection is well south,
so will keep the forecast dry for now.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 823 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
a warm front will sharpen just south of the great lakes tonight
and especially on Saturday. The TAF sites across southwest lower
michigan will see ceilings lower and thicken the next 24 hours.

Vfr ceilings and mainly dry weather should be in place tonight.

There is a small chance at some MVFR ceilings tonight however we
did not feel the threat was high enough to include in the tafs.

Ceilings should gradually lower tonight from 7,000-10,000ft to
around 3,500ft by Saturday morning.

On Saturday, the ceilings should lower into the MVFR range with
rain developing from south to north. Rain should spread into
southern lower michigan around 15z and move into the i-96 corridor
around 18z.

Marine
Issued at 333 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
winds will continue to shift this afternoon, predominantly coming
from the north-northeast tonight through much of the day Saturday.

Speeds will generally be 5-15 knots, increasing to 15-25 knots
Saturday afternoon. Locally higher winds may occur in/near
thunderstorms, but offshore flow should keep waves under sca
criteria. Otherwise, the main concern will continue to be shower
and thunderstorm chances extending from late Saturday into Monday.

Monday brings the likelihood for hazardous conditions. Low pressure
will approach the area with better support for high wind and wave
action into early next week, especially with winds out of the south-
southwest.

Hydrology
Issued at 333 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017
in general, a fairly widespread 2" to possibly 4" of rain is
expected this weekend. This will certainly lead to river rises and
some areas may reach flood stage by early next week. At this point
no major flooding is anticipated. Forecasts will continue to be
adjusted with the projected rainfall and once the rain gets into the
basins the accuracy of the forecasts will increase. It is important
not to focus on the exact crest values necessarily since they may
change with the daily updates as the rain gets closer to the region
and eventually begins occurring overhead.

The greatest impacts at this point look somewhat similar to earlier
this month for the sycamore creek and looking glass river. Rises
above flood stage look likely. On the grand, the river may hold just
below flood stage. If rainfall ends up being more 3"-5" across this
basin then higher crests would be achieved and flooding would likely
materialize.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Flood watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for
miz043>046-050>052-056>059-064>066-071-072.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Jk
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi84 min NE 20 G 23 43°F 1015.2 hPa (+2.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi84 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 87 mi54 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 1015.1 hPa49°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lansing, Capital City Airport, MI11 mi31 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast57°F46°F67%1015.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi31 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F48°F84%1015.6 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F48°F77%1015.6 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F46°F76%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8S12S13S11S11S15
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2 days agoSE12SE7SE8SE10SE9SE9SE11SE9S13SE15
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NW6NW4CalmE8S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.