Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:48 PM EST (17:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 8:27AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1014 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Freezing spray. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the evening, then cloudy overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray until midday. Snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots veering west toward daybreak. Rain and snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201901212215;;702317 FZUS53 KGRR 211514 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1014 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-212215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 211712
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1212 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Mon jan 21 2019
- cold wind chills occurring this morning
- next system to bring a wintry mix snow Tuesday into Wednesday
- bitter cold air surges in behind arctic cold front Thursday
- lake effect snow expected Thursday night through weekend

Update
Issued at 1039 am est Mon jan 21 2019
the current forecast is largely on track. Very cold temperatures
persist this morning so we will maintain the wsw headline til
noon. One change was to add flurries to the tonight forecast for
mainly northwest parts of the cwa. The burst of warm air advection
results in some deeper saturation which could support a period of
flurries overnight.

Discussion (today through next Sunday)
issued at 330 am est Mon jan 21 2019
ongoing wind chill event is occurring about as expected. Air
temperatures at all of the observing sites in the area are below
zero as of 300 am. The coldest temperature at the present time is at
one of the traditionally colder sites, the baldwin fire weather ob
site, at -18f. Winds are light in most areas, at or less than 5
knots and this will likely continue to be the case per the hrrr
surface wind forecast. Plenty of cooling to go yet tonight with
another 5 hours of darkness (sunrise just after 800 am). Coldest
wind chills are where there is just a bit of wind at alma and
lansing. Both are indicating a wind chill right around -20f. Will
let the headline stand as is with no changes, continuing through
noon today.

The main item in the forecast to deal with is the system moving into
the area on Tuesday. The system is associated with the upper trough
seen moving ashore in california this morning in water vapor
imagery. The system moves through the rockies tonight and emerges
into the plain on Tuesday. There are some model differences on how
the system evolves as it moves our direction. The ECMWF is slower,
with all of the models taking a slightly different track across the
area with the surface low. The GFS is further north and introduces a
bit more of a mix. At this point we have used a compromise of the
models and are in line with our previous forecasts. We are still
expecting mainly snow across central lower michigan where we may see
3-6 inches of snow. A mix is expected in the far south, especially
along i-94. A few inches of accumulation is expected along i-96 as
well with the potential for a mix as well. At this point want to see
a bit more consistency in the models before issuing a headline but
it is looking like we will need one for the mix south and the snow
to the north.

The cold front poised to move through on Thursday will be potent,
bringing in a surge of arctic air. -25c air at 850mb will be cold
enough to create travel issues where we see fine powdery lake effect
snows. Travel Thursday night into Friday towards lake michigan will
become difficult as salt will not be effective as temperatures
plummet.

Lake effect snows will become common in the wake of the arctic
front, but as the prior forecast discussion noted, flake size will
be small. Persistent snows will occur down wind of lake michigan
although significant totals are probably not likely. Again, the
biggest concern will be travel issues with temps in the single
digits and below.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1210 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
low level moisture will remain limited through the period so the
impact risk is low. A band of light snow flurries may clip kmkg
later tonight... But it will not last long. Still this will need
to be monitored.

Low level wind shear was added to most TAF sites for Tuesday
morning. Stronger winds just off the ground may support this risk.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Mon jan 21 2019
one small craft advisory heavy freezing spray event has ended and
another is expected to begin this evening. We have ended the SCA and
heavy freezing spray warning that was in effect as winds and waves
have come down. Another event is expected from tonight into Tuesday
though. Winds and waves will peak late tonight and into Tuesday
morning. With temperatures in the teens f and winds in excess of 25
knots heavy freezing spray looks likely once again. The largest
waves will occur off shore with the winds being from the sse.

Additional high waves are expected from Wednesday through Friday
behind the tues Wed system and again behind a cold front that will
surge through on Thursday.

Hydrology
Issued at 329 pm est Sun jan 20 2019
very cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning and
will cause significant ice growth in rivers. Ice jams may form as
rivers freeze up, and may lead to rapid changes in water levels
and localized flooding. There is already a likely ice jam along
the chippewa river west of the gauge site in mt pleasant, but
location is yet unknown and no flooding has been identified.

Other gauged rivers and streams are being monitored for
fluctuations in water levels. Temperatures will warm back into the
upper 20s to low 30s on Tuesday, and the low to mid 30s on
Wednesday. The warmer weather will also come with our next
widespread snow and rain event, which will raise water levels or
help break up any ice jams that form.

Precipitation should begin as snow Tuesday afternoon, then change to
a combination of a snow, a wintry mix and rain across west michigan
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The best chance for rain will be along
and south of the i-96 corridor. The increase in water levels will be
minor for areas north of i-96 if little to no rain falls, as
moisture gets locked into a snow pack. Areas south of i-96 stand a
better chance of receiving between one-quarter and one-half inch of
rain. Runoff from the combination of rain and melting snow
(estimates of water in snowpack is between 0.2 and 0.5 inches) will
cause rivers to rise. We will start getting a better feel as to
whether any sites will reach exceed bankfull tomorrow as river
forecast models take into account 48 hour QPF that includes this
system.

Precipitation for the remainder of the week will occur as several
light snow events. Temperatures will become very cold for the end of
the week, and will once again favor ice growth regrowth.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Tuesday for lmz844>849.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Tuesday
for lmz844>849.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi31 min E 8 G 12 1034.9 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi49 min NW 9.9 G 11 4°F 1034.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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NE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair1°F-8°F65%1038.1 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI13 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair2°F-9°F57%1034.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair3°F-9°F56%1035.2 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi53 minSSE 310.00 miFair2°F-16°F41%1035.6 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N12N15
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N5N6N8N8N6NW5N6NW5NW6NW5NW5N3W3W4NW3W3NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE16
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2 days agoNW8NW6NW5NW6N6N4CalmCalmE4E4E12NE10NE11NE9NE11NE11NE11NE8NE10NE11NE11NE10NE14
G20
NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.