Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Ledge, MI
March 28, 2024 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:24 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 10:49 PM Moonset 7:44 AM |
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Through early evening - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering east 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering northwest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering north toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday - East winds around 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday - North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 281951 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
The upper trough which has brought the recent bout of chilly and breezy weather finally lifts out of the GrtLks Rgn on Friday and is replaced by shortwave ridging in it's wake. At the sfc there is a ridge building in as well which finally brings lighter winds plus a continuation of sunshine. After a cold night tonight with lows in the 20s, Highs Friday rebounding to 50-55 but still rather chilly lakeside.
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
Active pattern, although fairly familiar/typical for springtime in srn MI, sets up on Friday night. We have a warm front and 50 kt low level jet lifting north in our direction with a fast zonal flow aloft and even some semblance of a coupled upper jet structure at 12Z Saturday. Models differ on position of the low level jet and northward extent of the better MUCape/elevated convection overnight, but the tail end of the HRRR guidance does snow a decent coverage of rain south of I-96 and even the possibility of localized 1+" of QPF near I-94 per the LPMM QPF prog. Steeper mid level lapse rates (7.8 C/KM 700-500 mb on the NAM) could support some small hail as well.
The other noteworthy item is that areas north of about a Big Rapids to Alma line (interior central lower MI) may be cold enough to support a period of freezing rain late Friday night into early Saturday... should the precip make it that far north.
The potential round of nocturnal/elevated convection could linger into Saturday morning (especially south), otherwise mainly lighter showers and clouds expected Saturday. Even if the sfc warm warm manages to bulge briefly north in the srn CWFA, it should slip south of MI again in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the 40s north to the 50s south.
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance next week
The long term period begins with a shallow upper level trough with primarily zonal flow over the region as any precipitation exit the region late Saturday into Sunday. The Zonal flow with very weak high pressure will continue over the region through Sunday into Monday. There is some ribbons of mid level moisture that will move into the area Sunday. This should cause cloudiness and perhaps some light rainshowers. The best moisture pool remains through southern Michigan, mainly along and south of the I 94 corridor.
The zonal pattern will be displaced Monday into Tuesday by a deep low pressure system that at this time is fairly barotropic with deep moisture throughout the system. There seems to be some strong warm air advection into the region Monday into Tuesday NAEFS PWATS current are between 0.75 to 1 inch with +1 standard deviation anomaly. Lower Michigan seems to be primarily entrenched in the warm sector so Maximum temperatures could be in the 50s through the first half of next week. The mid to long range moves are in fair agreement of the upper level pattern, though there is some disparity on the position of the sfc low. So a decent chance for rain showers should come around Tuesday. Along with this system is the potential for gusty winds. It's a tad early but latest ensembles show anomalous mid to upper level winds. There currently looks to be some better directional shear which could limit sfc winds so it is lower confidence but it is something to watch.
As the upper level low exits the region and moves into the mid Atlantic, cold air on the back side of the low should bring a chance for a rain/snow mix mid week. Temperatures are fairly marginal and it is far out so confidence is a specific precip type is low. High pressure should then dominate late next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
MVFR cigs are present along the lakeshore. As the low levels dry out expect those clouds to dissipate by 22Z. Otherwise VFR will dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period. The inversion will dominate the surface between 22Z to 00Z allowing for winds to become light.
MARINE
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Small Craft Advisory ending early this evening as westerly winds quickly subside, followed by light winds/waves on Friday as surface ridging moves in. Offshore flow expected Friday night into Saturday, backing northerly for a time Saturday afternoon/evening.
There could a relatively brief period later in the day Saturday requiring a Small Craft Advisory before things subside and go offshore again Saturday night.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
The upper trough which has brought the recent bout of chilly and breezy weather finally lifts out of the GrtLks Rgn on Friday and is replaced by shortwave ridging in it's wake. At the sfc there is a ridge building in as well which finally brings lighter winds plus a continuation of sunshine. After a cold night tonight with lows in the 20s, Highs Friday rebounding to 50-55 but still rather chilly lakeside.
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
Active pattern, although fairly familiar/typical for springtime in srn MI, sets up on Friday night. We have a warm front and 50 kt low level jet lifting north in our direction with a fast zonal flow aloft and even some semblance of a coupled upper jet structure at 12Z Saturday. Models differ on position of the low level jet and northward extent of the better MUCape/elevated convection overnight, but the tail end of the HRRR guidance does snow a decent coverage of rain south of I-96 and even the possibility of localized 1+" of QPF near I-94 per the LPMM QPF prog. Steeper mid level lapse rates (7.8 C/KM 700-500 mb on the NAM) could support some small hail as well.
The other noteworthy item is that areas north of about a Big Rapids to Alma line (interior central lower MI) may be cold enough to support a period of freezing rain late Friday night into early Saturday... should the precip make it that far north.
The potential round of nocturnal/elevated convection could linger into Saturday morning (especially south), otherwise mainly lighter showers and clouds expected Saturday. Even if the sfc warm warm manages to bulge briefly north in the srn CWFA, it should slip south of MI again in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the 40s north to the 50s south.
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance next week
The long term period begins with a shallow upper level trough with primarily zonal flow over the region as any precipitation exit the region late Saturday into Sunday. The Zonal flow with very weak high pressure will continue over the region through Sunday into Monday. There is some ribbons of mid level moisture that will move into the area Sunday. This should cause cloudiness and perhaps some light rainshowers. The best moisture pool remains through southern Michigan, mainly along and south of the I 94 corridor.
The zonal pattern will be displaced Monday into Tuesday by a deep low pressure system that at this time is fairly barotropic with deep moisture throughout the system. There seems to be some strong warm air advection into the region Monday into Tuesday NAEFS PWATS current are between 0.75 to 1 inch with +1 standard deviation anomaly. Lower Michigan seems to be primarily entrenched in the warm sector so Maximum temperatures could be in the 50s through the first half of next week. The mid to long range moves are in fair agreement of the upper level pattern, though there is some disparity on the position of the sfc low. So a decent chance for rain showers should come around Tuesday. Along with this system is the potential for gusty winds. It's a tad early but latest ensembles show anomalous mid to upper level winds. There currently looks to be some better directional shear which could limit sfc winds so it is lower confidence but it is something to watch.
As the upper level low exits the region and moves into the mid Atlantic, cold air on the back side of the low should bring a chance for a rain/snow mix mid week. Temperatures are fairly marginal and it is far out so confidence is a specific precip type is low. High pressure should then dominate late next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
MVFR cigs are present along the lakeshore. As the low levels dry out expect those clouds to dissipate by 22Z. Otherwise VFR will dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period. The inversion will dominate the surface between 22Z to 00Z allowing for winds to become light.
MARINE
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Small Craft Advisory ending early this evening as westerly winds quickly subside, followed by light winds/waves on Friday as surface ridging moves in. Offshore flow expected Friday night into Saturday, backing northerly for a time Saturday afternoon/evening.
There could a relatively brief period later in the day Saturday requiring a Small Craft Advisory before things subside and go offshore again Saturday night.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 78 mi | 47 min | SW 15G | 38°F | 42°F | 30.02 | 19°F | |
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 90 mi | 25 min | W 8G | 35°F | 30.07 | 21°F | ||
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 91 mi | 35 min | WSW 14G | 40°F | 29.94 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLAN CAPITAL REGION INTL,MI | 9 sm | 42 min | WSW 14G25 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 45°F | 21°F | 39% | 30.02 | |
KFPK FITCH H BEACH,MI | 13 sm | 20 min | W 19 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 45°F | 23°F | 42% | 30.01 | |
KTEW MASON JEWETT FIELD,MI | 21 sm | 20 min | WSW 17G22 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 19°F | 34% | 30.01 |
Detroit, MI,
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