Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haverhill, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:42PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:24 PM EDT (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:18AMMoonset 5:23PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 1037 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms, then showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1037 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will lift north of the waters today. A cold front will then cross new england later tonight and Saturday, passing across the waters early Saturday night. This will bring showers and Thunderstorms along with areas of fog. High pressure will return with dry weather on Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters midweek. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haverhill, MA
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location: 42.76, -71.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181421
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1021 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Out ahead of a deep low pressure center lifting into S canada,
rain, possibly heavy at times, along with the threat of localized
flooding, is expected for today and tonight. A low risk of strong
to severe thunderstorms mainly over S W portions of ma and ct. A
cold front moves through new england Saturday with a few leftover
showers and thunderstorms, then moves off to the east Saturday
night. High pressure returns with fair seasonable weather Sunday
through Tuesday. Another cold front sweeps through new england
Wednesday, followed by more dry weather Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
* highlights...

- simply for today into tonight, widespread rain with embedded heavy
rain and thunderstorms
- higher confidence with respect to downpours contributing to
localized flooding per tropical environment and already
observed 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates with morning
storms. Watching closely areas around nj DELMARVA and how
they could evolve N e
- lower confidence with respect to strong to severe storms over
s W portions of S new england, especially the ct river
valley, though can not rule out with any the potential of
gusty winds, perhaps even, though a low risk, of a brief
tornado given the environment
- no headlines will be issued with this update
* overview...

closed low pressure system over the N great lakes will be the
focus for wet weather today. Mid-level ridge over S new england
this morning will move offshore and build over the N atlantic.

Surface warm front will move from SW to NE over the region
today. This will keep the region in the warm sector for much of
the day before surface trough approaches from the west. Once
thing to watch is how far north the front advects. If is slows
down today, then it could be the focus for heavy precip and
eventually flooding this afternoon.

* discussion...

in simplicity, widespread rain with embedded heavy downpours and
thunder. Warm frontal boundary lifting N E across the region behind
which SW low-level flow is surging with higher surface dewpoint air
into the low 70s. The combination of confluence and over-running of
a very moist, tropical environment contributing to heavier downpours
with thunderstorms more prominent over nj and long islands in areas
of greater low-level confluence and higher amounts of elevated
instability along with potential enhanced ascent with lead short-
wave energy. Reports gathered of rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches
in an hour. Widespread rain N W beneath better dynamics, diffluence,
and lead shortwave energy out ahead of the closed low over S canada,
away from the mid-upper level ridge S e
for this morning, the warm frontal boundary will continue to lift
n E behind which tropical moisture will surge. Higher cloud bases to
the E will gradually lower as the influence of anticyclonic flow
beneath the mid-upper level ridge pushes slowly e. Expect activity
to wash out e, lesser rainfall amounts for the CAPE and islands
and lower pops, but remain prominent N NE along the nose of the
h925-85 jet and beneath more favorable dynamics, cyclonic flow
out ahead of the deep low center over S canada.

Into afternoon and evening, all eyes S W on what develops, evolves
and transitions. Still a strongly sheared environment across the
region along with a measure of helicity. Modest instability however
the more potent thermal-instability axes are across nj and the
delmarva peninsula within marginal shear. Enough to support storm
development, there's concern that activity may rob our environment
n E in that areas of S W new england may see little if anything.

Higher confidence that activity does blossom out of nj and the
delmarva and then pushes N E with the h925-85 jet enhancing out over
the waters with the boundary layer decoupling as warmer-moist air
pushes in aloft. An area of heavy rain with the tropical-feeding
flow, could see heavy rain into the overnight hours impact S e
portions of new england along with some embedded thunder. Sharpening
focus out ahead of a h5-7 dry punch and surface cold front. However,
don't want to rule out anything just yet, lots of mesoscale influences,
a messy forecast.

In agreement with the storm prediction center. Still can't rule out
the threat of strong storms over S W portions of S new england
despite the gut feeling that nj DELMARVA is where stronger to
severe storm activity will emerge. If any storms, gusty winds are
possible given the shear mean-wind profile, and with helicity, can
not object to the possibility of a brief tornado, however feel this
risk is low at this time. Lapse rates are mediocre as well, 5-6 c km.

Preference to trends with respect to lightning out of the ncar
ensembles. Echoing the previous forecaster, ncar ensembles do
highlight low lcls, rotation helicity, and backing surface
winds over S W areas of S new england. Bufkit hodographs are
also quite impressive, so again, will need to watch areas around
the ct river valley closely this afternoon.

Stronger agreement with weather prediction center on an excessive
rain threat. Precipitable waters well over 2 inches associated with
the tropical environment, k indices close to 40, and having already
observed the rainfall intensity with morning storms, can not rule
out flash flooding. Though it remains difficult to nail down exactly
where and when this will take place, and whether it will coincide
with any high tide periods. This ultimately lowers confidence with
respect to issuing a flash flood flood watch. Can't rule out
urban poor-drainage issues, but given the setup for today, unable
to nail anything down however can't rule out localized impacts. Very
anomalous event as we all well know up to 3 standard deviations
above average. Warm rain processes expected given high freezing
level heights and h85 dewpoints exceeding +12-15c, up around +17c.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Tonight...

thermal axis will peak over the region tonight as upper level trough
begins to approach. LLJ will be on the increase early this evening.

This combined with the warm, moist airmass and approaching upper
level trough expect the first half of the night to be busy with
ongoing precipitation. Conditions will slowly improve from west to
east through the early morning hours, however the approaching cold
front appears to stall either over or west of the region. Thus
expect a very mild night as dewpoints will remain high, in the 70s.

Could see a round of fog overnight as temp dewpoint spread will be
low. In fact, cannot rule out the dense fog potential. Overall,
anticipate ongoing precip and fog through the night with conditions
slowly improving from west to east by the morning hours.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Big picture...

subtropical high remains in control across the southern usa while a
general zonal flow continues across canada and the northern usa. The
flow becomes less zonal next midweek as alaska closed upper low digs
south over the gulf, subtropical upper ridge builds north over the
western usa, and upper low over hudsons bay digs south into the
northeast usa.

One shortwave moves across new england Saturday night, with brief
cooling aloft that destabilizes the airmass Sunday. A second
shortwave crosses new england Wednesday as the hudsons bay low
approaches and moves a supporting jet MAX across the region.

Contour heights are normal to a little higher than normal through
early next week. As the quebec closed low deepens, heights over new
england dip below normal midweek.

Model mass and thermal fields from the 00z suite are in general
agreement through Wednesday, building forecast confidence through
that time. Less agreement in the fields Thursday.

Details...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Models hold the the cold front over southern new england while
moisture fields race east and drier air moves in during the late
morning and afternoon. Pw fields show 1.5 inch values across much
of the region in the morning, but moving east of CAPE cod by
evening. CAPE fields show 1000-1500 j kg over easter ct ri eastern
mass midday. Winds aloft are marginally significant, especially at
500 mb with speeds of 40-45 knots. Stability parameters are mixed,
with totals in the mid to upper 40s in the early night, and li
values subzero over ri and eastern mass.

Expect the main area of showers heavy downpours to move east of
massachusetts during the morning. Drier air moves in at low levels,
with lingering moisture around 850 mb. This suggests at least some
clouds during the day, but with potential for sunny breaks. This
heating should push temps into the 80s, with enough instability to
generate scattered showers thunder along and ahead of the cold
front.

Saturday night...

cold front moves offshore, and surface winds become northwest. Skies
will either clear or partially clear. Dew points will linger in the
60s, with min temps close to that level.

Sunday...

upper shortwave and the coldest of the cold mid-level temps will be
over new england. The more significant cold temps as well as cloud-
level moisture will be over nh-vt. Cross-sections show southern new
england will have a moist layer based at 850 mb, but with drier air
above and below that layer. Expect diurnal clouds, probably a bit
more than guidance is suggesting, but otherwise a fair day with less
noticeable humidity. Temps aloft 12-14c support MAX sfc temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface high pressure builds in with light variable wind Sunday
night. With dew points in the upper 50s and around 60, expect min
temps around this same range. Guidance temps were nudged a couple of
degrees colder.

Monday-Tuesday...

high pressure builds over the region Monday and shifts offshore
south and east by Tuesday. Cross sections show dry air in place at
most levels through Tuesday evening, so expect dry weather both
days. Increasing mid and high clouds Tuesday ahead of the next
weather system. Temps aloft 14-15c Monday and 15-17c Tuesday,
supporting low-mid 80s Monday and 85 to 90 on Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday-Thursday...

closed low digs over quebec and the northeast usa with shortwave
driving a cold front into through new england. Expect
showers scattered tstms with the front Tuesday night Wednesday.

The airmass dries out Thursday, but lingering patches of
moisture in the mixed layer should generate some diurnal sky
cover.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today and tonight... Moderate confidence.

Trending MVFR to ifr spreading N E this morning. Can't rule out
partial improvement over S W new england late at times. Overall,
expect -ra ra this morning, becoming ra +ra tsra later today and
continuing overnight, SW to ne, as conditions lower ifr over
most locations. With ra +ra, expect tempo MVFR-ifr vsby impacts,
locally dense ifr fog over the S coast overnight.

Strong S winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, strongest
over S SE new england. Potential llws overnight with 40-45 kt sw
jet across S SE new england. All conditions improving as winds
turn W into early morning Saturday.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence.

Vfr with a gradual transition through the morning to MVFR ifr
along with a band of -ra and occasional +ra ra. Low risk for
occasional tsra through the day.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence.

Morning -ra, hovering around MVFR. Some improvement is possible
into the later-half of the day prior to possible ra +ra tsra
encroaching from the S w. Low confidence concerning potential,
as well as timing and impacts.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR ifr CIGS and vsbys in showers and fog Saturday morning, then
lingering showers thunderstorms in eastern mass and ri in the pm.

Trend all places will be toVFR. A cold front over the region will
move offshore to the east by Saturday evening with winds shifting
from the west.

Areas of ifr CIGS vsbys in fog and low clouds later Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday... Moderate-high confidence.

Vfr. Areas of ifr in early morning fog low clouds, then improving
toVFR by each mid morning and continuing the remainder of each day.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

S winds will be on the increase, gusting up to 25 kts across
the S SE waters. Small craft advisory remain as winds will
result in heightened seas up around 5 feet.

Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms sweeping W to E across
the waters today and tonight. Will likely be some visibility
restrictions.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Lingering potential for scattered showers tstms through the day,
diminishing west to east late Saturday. Diminishing wind through the
day. Some gusts 20-25 knots in the morning. Seas near 5 feet on the
outer waters and on ri sound, but trending lower through the day.

Sunday through Tuesday... Moderate-high confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters. Winds remain 20 knots or less,
and seas 4 feet or less.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 am edt
Saturday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Saturday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Saturday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Wtb dunten sipprell
short term... Dunten
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb dunten sipprell
marine... Wtb dunten sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 25 mi99 min E 1.9 69°F 1014 hPa64°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi54 min 76°F 1011.6 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi84 min SE 14 G 15 67°F 1012.9 hPa (-1.6)64°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 32 mi80 min SE 16 G 18 69°F 67°F2 ft1012.4 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi94 min SE 14 G 16 69°F 68°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (-1.7)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi140 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 64°F2 ft1014.2 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 47 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 7 65°F 58°F1014.5 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 48 mi48 min 65°F2 ft
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 49 mi84 min N 2.9 66°F 64°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA3 mi30 minVar 33.00 miRain Fog/Mist73°F69°F87%1013.1 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA15 mi31 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1012 hPa
Manchester Airport, NH22 mi31 minSE 61.25 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist68°F64°F90%1013.3 hPa
Nashua - Boire Field Airport, NH23 mi28 minESE 51.50 miRain Fog/Mist69°F69°F100%1013.5 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA23 mi88 minSSE 710.00 miLight Rain74°F66°F79%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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--W10W7NW4SW3S5CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm33
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2 days agoSW8S8SW8SW6S4SW74SW10S6SW8SW5SW6S5SW3SW3S4S4SW4W33NW9NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Riverside, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Riverside
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Fri -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:25 AM EDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:45 PM EDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.34.22.91.60.60-00.92.74.55.65.65.24.33.2210.30.10.82.64.76.36.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:55 AM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-1.1-0.9-0.40.51.11.31.61.40.5-0.5-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.60.211.31.51.60.9-0.1-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.