Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 331 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms until midday. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ846 Expires:201806190315;;739954 FZUS53 KGRR 181931 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-190315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holland, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181915
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
315 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 316 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
a cold front will continue to move south through southern lower
michigan this evening and stall near interstate 80 after midnight.

Expect scattered thunderstorms, mostly near and south of
interstate 96 this evening as the front moves south. This front
will bring cooler air to the area through the rest of the week. A
wave on the front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring
showers back north into areas south of interstate 96. It should
be rain free from Wednesday evening into Friday afternoon. Then a
storm system from the southwestern united states will track into
the great lakes with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are
expected to say near normal through the weekend.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
the main issue how much convection will there be over southwest
lower michigan ahead of the cold front this evening? Also just how
far north does the convection with the frontal wave Tuesday night
get into southwest michigan? If nothing else it will cool off
significantly starting Tuesday and for that matter, the rest of
the week.

I plan to leave the heat advisory as is since we are seeing heat
index values near 100 degrees in the heat advisory area.

An area of convection, assoicated with a wave on the front near
mke (2 pm) will track east southeast into our southwest CWA over
the next few hours. The effective shear (spc meso page) is
forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range as this convection moves
south and west of grr. Given the 2.2 to 2.4" of precipitable
water assoicated with this wave on the front and the 2000 to 2500
j kg of mixed layer CAPE and the 1000 j kg of downdraft cape,
plus the 30 to 35 knot low level jet just behind the wave is just
enough to all thunderstorms to track southeast of a line from
muskegon to to lansing late this afternoon into this evening. It
would seem the marginal risk for severe storms does make sense.

Once that wave gets through this evening it should remain dry
until a wave on the front brings convection back into the area
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Since by the we have
digging shortwave on the northern stream at that time and the wave
causing the precipitation is on the southern stream, it would
seem to me this convection may well go south of our area so that
will have to be watched.

More than anything we get a northeast flow of cool canadian air
from late tonight through Wednesday night. It will be cooler and
drier.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
we are still watching the system that get's henry ruled out of
the southwest CONUS and heads across the great lakes later Friday
into Saturday. The models have been very consistent with this
feature and given there will be a subtropical moisture feed into
this system, there remains potential for heavy rain. Due to all
the clouds and precipitation expected, I do not see much warming
over the weekend as that system moves through.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 137 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
it would seem, based on the latest data, that most if not all of
the significant convection will miss our TAF sites over the next
36 hours. There is an area of MVFR ifr CIGS behind the cold front
but even that will not last more than a few hours at any one taf
site as the cool dry air surges in from the northeast behind the
front. All areas should beVFR by 15z or so. Most if not all of
our TAF site will have MVFR CIGS in the 00z to 06z time frame.

Clearing follow from the northeast to southwest with the shallow
cool dry air moving in behind the front.

Marine
Issued at 316 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
i do not believe we will be needing small craft advisories from
this frontal passage as there is not a lot of gradient to cause
strong enough winds.

Hydrology
Issued at 140 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
recent rain has resulted in a slight rise on a few rivers. With
river levels running near normal, no flooding is expected.

More rain is expected across the area this afternoon through
Wednesday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms may
develop. Very heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. This
may produce localized flooding.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for miz064>067-071>074.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 6 mi43 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 1012.3 hPa72°F
45029 13 mi23 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 68°F1 ft1012.1 hPa67°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 27 mi33 min S 9.9 G 9.9 78°F
45168 29 mi23 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 70°F1 ft1011.9 hPa68°F
45161 31 mi33 min S 1.9 G 3.9
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 34 mi23 min NW 4.1 G 6 71°F 1012.3 hPa70°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 51 mi73 min SSW 9.9 G 14 83°F 1013.9 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI1 mi20 minW 810.00 miFair87°F73°F63%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW10SW10SW9SW11SW13SW13SW10SW10SW14SW13SW16
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1 day agoE4E3SE3E3SE5SE4SE4SE3CalmS4S3CalmS4S3S5S5SW11SW10SW10SW11SW12SW14SW14SW11
G18
2 days agoN3E4S7S7S6S3SE5S3N12
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S4SW8SW8S9S44N6W8CalmSW9NW5N5W4SW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.