Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:20PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:51 PM EST (02:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:43AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north, then increasing to 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ846 Expires:201801161015;;514452 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holland, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 180224
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
924 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 329 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
a short period of light snow will fall across most of the area late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most areas will see an inch
or less fall before ending by midnight.

A warm and wet period will develop starting early Monday morning,
and will last into Wednesday. Periods of rain can be expected with a
few thunderstorms possible. Some heavy rain will be likely.

Temperatures could approach 60 degrees across the southern areas
from Monday night into early Wednesday with cooler temperatures up
north.

Cooler air will filter in for the end of the week. Generally drier
conditions will be likely for the end of next week, with
precipitation potentially moving in again next weekend.

Update
Issued at 924 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
the fcst is on track and will update once the snow moves out. The
shortwave and associated enhanced clouds on IR are already moving
east, so the snow should be done no later than midnight. Most
areas have seen at least a dusting of snow based on radar and
observations, and suspect some lakeshore communities have seen
close to 1".

There is concern that some patchy ground fog could develop toward
daybreak once skies clear and winds drop to about 5 mph. Will
hold off for now on adding any fog to the fcst, but it is
something that needs to be watched for Sunday morning. The best
threat per latest guidance and fcst soundings looks to be along
and south of i-94, with the higher threat over NRN il and SRN wi.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 329 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
our biggest concerns in the short term are looking at the potential
for mixed pcpn up north late Sun night and then rain thunder trends
for Mon and Mon night. One change we have made to the fcst is
pulling out the mixed pcpn for Sun night, as temps should warm above
freezing before pcpn moves in up there.

No real changes for the light snow event coming through this
evening. We continue to expect light snow to accumulate up to an
inch over western areas with about 3-6 hours of light snow. We can
not rule out some rain briefly mixing in across the south where
enough warmth from diurnal heating will help out.

We will see a dry period from overnight tonight through the early
overnight hours on Sun night. Sun might even be a decent day with
clouds expected to clear out a bit, and highs sneaking up into the
lower 40s.

Pcpn will make a move into the area from south to north later sun
night and Mon morning, pretty much all in the form of liquid. This
rain will be the result of the upper pattern shifting to a sw-ne
orientation over the region as strong upper troughing digs south
across the western u.S. Coast. We will see the initial wave approach
late Sun night, and draw gulf moisture overhead with a 60 knot low
level jet pushing in.

Rain will make it roughly to around i-96 by 12z mon, and then
progress north through the remainder of the area Mon morning. This
is important as the models have been fairly consistent in showing
temps near freezing up north Sun night. There is very good
confidence that pcpn will not make it there before temps warm above
freezing, so mixed pcpn potential is quite low.

Once the rain overspreads the area, it will continue intermittently
with multiple waves moving along the nearly stalled out frontal
boundary parallel with the upper flow overhead through Mon night and
into the long term. Instability parameters indicate that we will see
sufficient elevated instability for thunder move in Mon afternoon
and continue through Mon night and beyond.

Long term (Tuesday through Saturday)
issued at 329 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
periods of rain are expected to continue into the long term period
with a deep southwest flow in place aloft. At the surface, southerly
winds with a flow off the gulf will persist both Tuesday and Tuesday
night. We expect widespread light to moderate rains that will become
occasionally heavy at times from Tuesday into Tuesday night and
perhaps into Wednesday morning. Thunder chances exist Tuesday and
Tuesday evening with 850mb lis near zero. Some weak CAPE is seen as
well.

The setup looks about the same as yesterday with a frontal boundary
draped southwest to northeast across the area. Waves of low pressure
are forecast to ride northeast along the front and enhance rainfall.

The last wave looks to move through Tuesday evening. Precipitable
water values have increased in the model runs today and are now near
1.4 inches via the gfs. This would be record level pwat values for
february based on dtx sounding climatology. 850mb moisture transport
remains strong Tuesday into Tuesday night especially across southern
lower michigan.

Some light snow will mix in before the precipitation ends Tuesday
night into Wednesday on the back edge of the system. We are not
expecting much in the way of accumulation however. Mainly dry
weather is expected Wednesday night into Thursday night as high
pressure drifts through the region.

Our next weather maker is associated with a shortwave aloft moving
through the great lakes region Friday into Saturday. Model
differences exist with this system, but we tend to lean towards the
gfs canadian solutions that are quicker and more amplified. Have
both light rain and light snow in the forecast during this time
frame as temperatures will be varying within 10 degrees of the
freezing mark. Precipitation amounts look to be a half inch or less,
so not expecting big impacts.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 708 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
burst of snow passing through this evening will create frequent
ifr or lower vsbys for a couple hours, but it will end rather
abruptly after 02 or 03z. Once the snow ends there should be MVFR
cigs lingering for 4-6 hours beforeVFR conditions return again
late tonight or early Sunday morning.

There is a low probability that some areas of lifr fog or stratus
could develop toward sunrise due to the combination of clearing
skies and the little bit of fresh wet snow on the ground. If
areas of fog stratus do form, it could take until noon Sunday to
completely get rid of it. This scenario is not in the tafs at this
time due to low confidence, but may need to be added later if
confidence increases.

South winds will increase to 12 to 22 kt Sunday afternoon with
cloud bases mostly AOA 12,000 ft.

Hydrology
Issued at 329 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
confidence is increasing in 1 to 2 inches of rain with narrower
swaths of 3 inches possible Monday through Wednesday morning. River
levels are running above normal for this time of year in the upper
grand basin (greater lansing area), with a couple already near
bankfull. Snow water content on an area-wide average is estimated
around a half inch.

The rain and snowmelt is expected to cause most rivers to rise out
of their banks by Tue in headwaters and later in the week in
downstream main stems. Familiar nuisance flooding would be expected.

Some rivers may reach minor flood stage which is a little less
typical and starts impacting roads and some structures. A comparable
flood in recent memory occurred in april 2017. Right now we do not
expect most rivers to surpass what was seen in that event, although
smaller basins that receive bursts of heavier rain can quickly rise
higher than expected. Ice on the rivers may break apart then jam up
downstream, resulting in unpredictable fluctuations in levels.

How rare is this rain event? Two-day precip totals over 2 inches
during february have only occurred a handful of times in 120-plus
years of records at muskegon, grand rapids, and lansing. Most
recently it occurred in 1997 at gr and lan, and 2001 at mkg. The
records for two-day feb precip amounts are 2.41 inches at mkg in
2001, 3.56 in 1997 at gr, and 4.40 in 1938 at lan.

Note: current river level forecasts published on AHPS do not account
for precipitation expectations beyond 48 hours.

Climate
Issued at 329 pm est Sat feb 17 2018
with the warm and wet conditions looking more likely, we looked at
the high temp records, MAX low records, and precipitation records
for mon, tue, and wed.

Mon 2 19 Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
muskegon high 58 (2017) 62 (2017) 58 (2017,1930)
max low 44 (1994) 40 (1953) 41 (2017)
pcpn 0.88"(1994) 1.13"(2002) 1.44"(1997)
grand rapids
high 62 (2017) 61 (1930) 66 (1930)
max low 47 (1994) 50 (1930) 47 (1930)
pcpn 0.85"(1939) 1.40"(1898) 2.96"(1997)
lansing
high 62 (2017) 59 (2017,'83,'30) 62 (1930)
max low 42 (1994) 42 (1930) 42 (2017)
pcpn 1.49"(1939) 1.04"(1891) 2.14"(1997)

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Meade
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Duke
aviation... Meade
hydrology... Cas
climate... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 6 mi52 min SSW 6 G 8 31°F 1015.3 hPa (+1.4)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 27 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 30°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 34 mi42 min W 11 G 12 31°F 1017.1 hPa30°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 51 mi52 min WSW 7 G 8.9 31°F 1017.3 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI1 mi59 minWSW 42.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3S5S4S4S5S4S4S4S7S7S7S9S8S7SW11SW12W13W8SW4SW5SW6W6SW4
1 day agoCalmN4N4N5N5NW6NW5NW7NW12
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2 days agoS7SW14SW18SW15SW16SW20
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SW12SW10SW11SW13SW9SW13W8W8SW4NW7W9S6NW3NW3W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.