Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:39PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:15 AM EST (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north, then increasing to 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ846 Expires:201801161015;;514452 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 160830
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am est Tue jan 16 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Tue jan 16 2018
occasional light snow will persist today but will be followed by
dry weather and gradually moderating temperatures the rest of the
week. Highs over the coming weekend should be in the 40s, with
increasing chances for rain by next Monday.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 330 am est Tue jan 16 2018
for now will keep the advisory going for allegan and van buren
counties. The heavier snow showers temporarily lifted north into
ottawa and kent counties overnight, but latest radar trends
suggest they will be shifting back toward these counties early
this morning. Also a meso low looks to be present just offshore
of south haven. If heavier snow showers do not redevelop in the
advisory area over the next couple hours, will cancel expire.

Otherwise, ocnl light snow flurries will continue to fall over
much of the area this morning with mid level cyclonic shear zone
overhead. Also an area of enhanced low level convergence related
to a sfc trough extends along near the i-96 corridor. Both of
these features are progged to move slowly southeast with time, so
will have a decreasing pop trend later today.

Impressive temperature contrast exists on either side of the i-96
sfc trough feature, with single digit readings to the north and
south but teens along near it. The low level fgen related to the
temperature contrast and the convergence should continue to
promote the development of snow showers from grr to the south and
east through mid morning. Another sfc trough dropping south through
eastern lwr mi today should aid in snow shower development for
place like clare, mt pleasant and alma.

While the synoptic system finally departs tonight, backing low
level flow should send lake effect snow showers back into areas
west of highway 131. The lake snows will end early Wednesday
however due to the incoming warm advection. Wednesday and Thursday
look like dry but breezy days with slightly milder temps.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 330 am est Tue jan 16 2018
warmer weather and the potential for a late weekend storm is the
focus of the long term.

Zonal flow aloft Thursday night through Saturday will increase
temperatures across the great lakes. High temperatures will be in
the 40s Saturday through Monday. Models show a cold front trying to
move south across lower michigan Saturday, but it looks like it will
stall out over northern lower due to strengthening south flow over
the midwest ahead of the next storm.

Precipitation chances will increase from Saturday night through
Sunday night as a developing storm moves from the southern plains
northeast to the great lakes. Both the ECMWF and GFS show sfc
cyclogenesis over the texas panhandle in response to a strong short
wave moving across the southern rockies. This low is progd to move
northeast along the aforementioned cold front and draw up abundant
moisture from the gulf. Present storm tracks show the CWA being on
the southern side of the system, which means rain beginning Saturday
night and continuing through Sunday. It's possible that we could see
a mix of some freezing rain and or snow over the the northern cwa
Sunday night as the low moves through. Elevated lifted indices over
illinois are in the -1 to -2c range Sunday evening so some thunder
might not be too far away.

Heavy rain is a possibility with this system and could lead to
localized flooding. Colder air will flow back into the CWA late
Monday as the low moves east and northwest winds develop. This would
lead to the rain mixing with and changing to light snow.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 701 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
variable conditions are expected the next 24 hours as a weakening
trough of low pressure will be situated across the southern great
lakes region. Conditions vary from MVFR toVFR for the most part
at 00z, with the ifr becoming less prevalent. The general thinking
is we will continue to see variable conditions as snow will weaken
and intensify at times through the period. Overall, though a slow
improving trend should be noted as we head from tonight into
Tuesday. Fairly widespread MVFR at least is in place and given the
time of year and time of day we should expected to see the MVFR
conditions continue or expand a bit into Tuesday morning. The
heating of the day and the weakening trough should tend to lift
ceilings a bit on Tuesday. We have the tafs trending towardVFR
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through
the period.

Hydrology
Issued at 313 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
observations through southwest lower michigan show overall stability
on area rivers. This is expected to be the case through the next few
days with highs near or below freezing through Thursday.

Next weekend's temperatures may be a factor in raising concerns for
additional ice jams. Guidance places a strengthening system over the
midwest, which results in strong southerly flow and temperatures in
the 40s through the area. Precipitation then streams in by early
next week, yielding amounts that exceed one inch through portions of
western michigan.

There is still plenty of time for forecast details to be worked out
and trends will need to be monitored over the next several days.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for miz064-
071.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Meade
short term... Meade
long term... 04
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi45 min E 5.1 G 8 1025.7 hPa
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi35 min SSE 8 G 9.9 11°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi25 min E 7 G 9.9 12°F 1029.8 hPa8°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi75 min S 5.1 G 11 8°F 1027.4 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi22 minS 61.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist14°F10°F84%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------E7E8E8E5E5E8E6E5NE3E5E5E3SW6S4S6
1 day agoS8S7S7S9S9S9S13SW15S15
G20
S12SW10S8S12S11SE12SE12S10S15
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2 days agoN8
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N5N7N84N5N8N9N5N5NW6N4N5NE3NE3CalmSE3SE3S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.