Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:06 AM CDT (07:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 913 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cdt Wednesday through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots until late afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
LMZ645 Expires:201706281015;;929918 FZUS53 KMKX 280213 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 913 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-645-281015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, WI
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location: 42.8, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 280432
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1132 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017

Update
Aviation(06z tafs)
Vfr conditions tonight as early morning clouds increase ahead of
an approaching area of showers and thunderstorms. Llws will
develop during this time but will dissipate by late morning on
Wednesday as breezy south winds develop at the surface. An area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms will move east across
southern wisconsin through the day with additional development of
strong to severe storms Wednesday late afternoon or evening.

Areas of MVFR CIGS and ifr vsbys will be likely in showers or
thunderstorms.

Prev discussion (issued 931 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017)
update...

latest hrrr still showing showers thunderstorms moving into south
central wisconsin around 7 am, and affecting all of the area
through the late morning. The new NAM is just a little slower, and
has much of the late afternoon and evening re-development across
northern illinois, with a second area more across central and
northeast wisconsin. Strong low level shear with this second area,
with the severe weather threat still looking favorably.

Aviation... (00z tafs)
vfr conditions tonight until early morning as clouds increase
ahead of an approaching area of showers and thunderstorms. Llws
will develop over south central wi during this time but will
dissipate by late morning on Wednesday as breezy south winds
develop at the surface. An area of showers and scattered
thunderstorms will move east across southern wisconsin through the
day with additional development of strong to severe storms wed
eve. Areas of MVFR CIGS and ifr vsbys will be possible around and
after any showers or storms.

Marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect for wed-wed night due to
breezy south winds and high waves on Wednesday with the breezy
winds shifting southwest Wednesday night.

Beaches... A beach hazard statement will likely be needed for
wed-wed eve due to breezy sly winds and high waves. Dangerous
structural and longshore currents will likely develop. Especially
north of port washington.

Prev discussion... (issued 237 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017)
short term...

tonight through Friday... Forecast confidence medium.

Sly flow and warm advection will begin tnt but will increase on
wed when a strong sly LLJ to the west veers to swly at 50-60 kts
as it shifts ewd across SRN wi. A shortwave trough will pass
during this time providing upper support. So overall, moderate to
strong warm advection and q-vector convergence expected for wed
and lingering into Wed eve. The CAPE will not become appreciable
until late Wed aft-eve although sfc based convection is
questionable due to clouds and cooler temps during the daytime
hours. Thus the best chances for strong or severe storms will be
the evening as warm, moist advection continues via a veering llj.

If sfc based convection does occur then all severe threats
including tornadoes would be possible. Some concern for training
convection Wed eve due to the veering LLJ becoming more aligned
with the upper flow, so at least a minor flash flood threat will
be possible. A cold front will gradually pass late Wed nt-thu am
with the focus for convection remaining mostly over il ia for thu
and Thu eve, although will still mention chances of tstorms due to
close proximity to the front.

A shortwave trough and compact sfc low will track into SE wi late
thu nt and Fri am bringing widespread showers and tstorms to srn
wi. The severe threat will likely stay south where higher cape
values will be present. The average rainfall expected through fri
will range from 1.40-2.25 inches with the usual locally higher
amounts. Some rivers may reach minor flood stage due to this.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence low to
medium.

A fairly large upper trough will reside over ontario, canada and
the NRN great lakes for the weekend. Shortwave troughs will rotate
around the large upper trough into SRN wi bringing chances of
showers and tstorms. For early next week it appears a shortwave
trough and low pressure area will remain mainly to the south as it
tracks ewd.

Aviation(18z tafs)... Sct060 cumulus this afternoon and broken at
times through the middle of the afternoon in far ERN wi.

Otherwise mo clear skies andVFR conditions tnt until early
morning west of kmsn where clouds will increase ahead of an
approaching area of showers and tstorms. Llws will develop over
south central wi during this time but will dissipate by late
morning on Wed as breezy sly winds develop at the surface. An area
of showers and sct tstorms will move ewd across SRN wi through
the day with additional development of strong to severe storms wed
eve. Areas of MVFR CIGS and vsbys will be possible around and
after any showers or storms. Much lower CIGS and vsbys within
tstorms.

Marine... A small craft advisory is in effect for wed-wed nt due
to breezy sly winds and high waves on Wed with the breezy winds
shifting swly for Wed nt.

Beaches... A beach hazard statement will likely be needed for
wed-wed eve due to breezy sly winds and high waves. Dangerous
structural and longshore currents will likely develop.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 9 am Wednesday to 6 am cdt Thursday
for lmz643>646.

Update... Hentz
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Gehring
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi67 min SW 7 G 9.9 65°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.6)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 17 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 63°F
45013 21 mi88 min S 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 56°F1016.7 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 31 mi87 min SW 7 G 8 63°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 41 mi87 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 59°F 1017.3 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 47 mi77 min S 12 G 14 64°F 61°F1 ft1017.1 hPa (+0.3)59°F
45174 48 mi37 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 64°F1 ft55°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI6 mi74 minSSW 510.00 miFair58°F50°F75%1017.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI11 mi75 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds61°F50°F67%1016.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair59°F48°F69%1017 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi72 minS 410.00 miFair55°F46°F72%1016.9 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI23 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair55°F54°F100%1016.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI23 mi72 minS 410.00 miFair59°F44°F59%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W4W5W5W6NW5NW5NW7W6
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W455SE8S11S9S11S10S7S7S8S3SW5SW5
1 day agoW4W4W4W4W6W8W86W13
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2 days agoW56W6W6W9W11
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W6W6W5W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.