Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:09 AM CDT (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 850 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Widespread fog. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the morning. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain with snow likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..East wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ645 Expires:201703291015;;237885 FZUS53 KMKX 290150 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 850 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-291015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, WI
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location: 42.8, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 290448
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1148 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
Low clouds and fog continue to push west out of southeast
wisconsin. The cold northeast flow off the lake has supported it
and this fetch will continue through the night. Right now the
fog is moving west about 8mph, and is accelerating a bit as the
temp/dewpoint spread tightens up with cooling temps. The dense
fog advisory has been expanded another tier of counties west and
may need to be expanded farther, but will watch trends. The dense
fog advisory runs until 9 am Wednesday. Will watch the trends for
possible expansion of the advisory. The remainder of the forecast
looks on track.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Fog and low clouds will continue to drift across southern
wisconsin overnight. The lowest conditions should remain across
southeast wisconsin with lifr conditions through about sunrise.

Farther inland, cigs/vsbys will drop to ifr, but just not as bad
as conditions farther east. Improving conditions are expected by
mid morning on Wednesday withVFR cigs/vsbys returning for a time.

Lower MVFR CIGS will stream back in by evening ahead of advancing
low pressure. Precipitation will overspread the area during the
evening. It should remain rain along the wi/il state line, but
become mixed with and change over to snow north of milwaukee and
madison. Some mix may be found at kmke/kmsn for a time, but no
snow accumulation is expected.

Prev discussion (issued 841 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
update...

low clouds and fog continue to push west out of southeast
wisconsin. The cold northeast flow off the lake has supported it
and this fetch will continue through the night. Some of the high
resolution guidance continues to push the fog into south central
wisconsin after midnight and this isn't entirely unreasonable.

Right now the fog is moving west about 8mph, but may accelerate
as the temp/dewpoint spread tightens up with radiating temps. The
dense fog advisory is just for the lake counties at this time and
this may still be okay with lighter fog/better vsbys possible
farther inland. The dense fog advisory runs until 9 am Wednesday.

Will watch the trends for possible expansion of the advisory. The
remainder of the forecast looks on track.

Marine...

the marine dense fog advisory will continue through mid morning on
Wednesday. There is some drier air working south down the lake
which may allow the advisory to end earlier from port washington
north to sheboygan later tonight.

Northeast to east winds will increase later Wednesday into
Wednesday night likely resulting in small craft advisory
conditions for Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Prev discussion... (issued 623 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
update...

fog and low stratus right along lake michigan looks like it will
creep progressively farther inland overnight. There is some
indication that after midnight, after temps cool rapidly inland
under clear skies, that stratus will accelerate quickly westward.

It will take some of the lower vsbys along with it. Dense fog is
likely right along the shore, but vsbys should improve quickly
inland. We will have to watch this closely as it has potential to
go quickly downhill.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

the southeast wisconsin tafs, especially kmke, will sit under the
a steady stream of low stratus and lower vsbys streaming in off
lake michigan. Trajectories don't really show it improving until
about sunrise Wednesday. Very little in the way of hi resolution
guidance is handling this very well. Low ifr conditions likely
through the night. Kmsn could see some ifr cigs/vsbys after 06z
wed due to fog/stratus development with good radiational cooling
this evening. Conditions should lift toVFR levels by about 15z
Wednesday with MVFR CIGS arriving Wednesday afternoon ahead of
approaching low pressure. Most precip should hold off until after
00z thu.

Prev discussion... (issued 329 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
short term...

tonight - confidence... Medium
main forecast challenge centers on fog and stratus trends. Things
have been rather precarious lakeside with lower ceilings/fog hugging
the shore and in some cases coming onshore with minimal inland push.

Guidance suggests some fog and stratus development further inland as
night wears on. Confidence not great at this point on inland extent
or degree of vsby restrictions due to winds staying up. Gradient
proggd to be maintained so at least some NE winds mixing down per
bufkit. MOS and SREF not suggesting much confidence in widespread
dense so no headline at this time.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
focus early on will be any lingering fog/stratus and then precip
trends with waa/moist advection ahead of system in southern plains.

Sfc/850 millibar ese flow may help to maintain the dry layer in
place per bufkit soundings. The GFS is much quicker to saturate this
layer in the afternoon, while the NAM shows more depth to the dry
air. Have spread pops into the sc CWA though best moisture push
arrives beyond this period. With the cloud cover and flow off the
lake have trended cooler, more towards 3 hourly MOS and superblend,
with the nam MOS looking better towards the lake.

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence medium.

A n-s upper trough and associated sfc trough will track from the
central and southern great plains to the ohio river valley during
this period. Well organized lift from 850-700 mb warm advection
and frontogenesis is expected Wed nt-thu. It will be aided aloft
by the rrqd of a w-e jet over the northern great lakes and srn
canada, along with PVA from the passage of the upper trough axis.

Pws will increase to 0.80-1.00 inches with total forecasted qpf
amounts of 0.70-0.95 toward central wi with over an inch along and
south of a line from madison to milwaukee. Biggest challenge is
precip. Type. Forecasted temps aloft toward central wi are near
0c for Wed nt-thu am so wanted to account for the potential for
more snow. Expecting a mix of precip. From madison to milwaukee
and nwd with 2-3 inches of snow forecast from sheboygan county
wwd to mqt county. Areas of light freezing rain with a glaze of
ice will also be possible north of madison and milwaukee. All rain
should then be occurring for Thu afternoon into the evening. Most
of the system should then be ewd for Fri although stratus clouds
could easily linger.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence low to
medium.

High pressure will likely prevail from Fri nt-sat nt. A fairly
large low pressure area over the lower ms river valley will then
move nwd for mon-tue bringing chances of rain for mainly Mon nt-
tue. Precip. Chances are currently low due to the uncertainty of
the track of this system. Temps will be at least slightly above
normal.

Aviation(update)... Large area of stratus has eroded to
the southwest of TAF sites while other lake induced stratus hugging
the shore and in some cases coming onshore. However for the most
part enough dry air mixing has eroded the inland push. Another
concern will be development of more stratus/fog overnight as
sref/llvl rh progs and trajectories favor some of the more
widespread stratus over the lake spreading inland as the night wears
on. However not real confident on widespread this will become or if
vsbys will get out of hand since gradient still supportive of winds
staying up. On Wednesday a low pressure system will slowly approach.

For much of the day the east or ese low level flow may help
reinforce the dry low levels but the GFS models is showing a quicker
erosion of this dry layer and a quicker onset to rain. This would
mainly affect sc wi during the afternoon while the rest of the area
looks like it would remain dry until Wednesday evening.

Marine... At the moment, port washington cam shows some thicker fog
but other cams showing better vsbys. Will hold off on advisory for
now as not confident on how widespread fog will become. However have
issued a marine weather statement. North winds will shift more east
around high pressure. This flow will bend northeast through
Wednesday. These winds and subsequent waves are expected to remain
below small craft levels. However the onshore flow will further
strengthen heading into Wednesday and Wednesday night as low
pressure approaches. Higher waves can then be expected with
potential small craft advisory headline needed.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cdt Wednesday for wiz052-059-060-
065-066-070>072.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cdt Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Update... Davis
tonight/Wednesday and aviation/marine... Collar
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi69 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1023.7 hPa (-0.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 17 mi59 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 33°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 31 mi89 min N 8 G 11 33°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 41 mi89 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI6 mi76 minNNW 30.50 miFog32°F32°F100%1024.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI11 mi77 minWNW 40.25 miFog34°F33°F97%1024.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi76 minN 40.25 miFog33°F32°F96%1024.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi74 minN 00.25 miFreezing Fog32°F32°F100%1024 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI23 mi74 minNE 30.25 miLight Snow36°F35°F100%1024 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI23 mi74 minN 00.25 miFog32°F30°F93%1024 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N9N10N9N8N8N8N13
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N11N12N12N12NE10N9N12N7N8N6NE8N8N5N8NW3Calm
1 day agoW3NW5W5NW4CalmCalmNW3N3NE7NE5E7E6E5E6NE4NE6N7N10N9N7N6N7N6N9
2 days agoNE8NE8NE8NE6NE7NE6NE7NE9NE4CalmCalmN3NE5N4N3N5N5N3N6N5CalmN3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.