Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:00 PM EDT (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 232041
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
441 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into memorial day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 445 pm edt, several bands of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms moved across the region earlier this afternoon.

There remains spotty showers across the mohawk valley, sw
adirondacks into central portions of nys. Additional spotty
showers were tracking across across the mid hudson valley and
into NW ct.

Over the next 2-3 hours, expect isolated to scattered showers
to persist for areas along and north of the i-90 corridor.

Instability remains quite limited, especially after earlier rain
led to cooling within the boundary layer. Clouds persist
upstream, except closer to the actual cold front, where some
agitated CU fields and a few isolated showers were noted.

Will still need to watch the main cold front upstream, which is
rapidly accelerating E SE across SW ontario. Kinematics remain
extremely strong, and overall upper level dynamics will rapidly
increase toward and especially just after sunset, with the
approach of a cyclonically curved upper level jet, placing areas
(especially from i-90 and points north) into the left exit
region. So, still can not rule out some showers low topped
thunderstorms to form on the cold front, and with mid level
winds of 40-60 kt, strong downward momentum could lead to strong
wind gusts, even within lower topped showers (perhaps without
any lightning). So, trends will need to be watched upstream
across western nys this evening. Should any low topped
convection develop along the front, timing would favor passage
through the region from NW to SE roughly between 8 pm and 11 pm.

And if convection fails to form, there still could be briefly
strong wind gusts as the front passes, perhaps 30-40+ mph.

After the front passes, expect breezy conditions with clearing
initially, before some clouds reform across higher terrain areas
before daybreak. Remaining breezy windy, with lows mainly in the
upper 40s to lower mid 50s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Friday-Friday night, cyclonic flow and cold air aloft, along
with a surface trough passing southward through the region,
should favor quite a bit of cloud coverage once deeper mixing
commences in the late morning through afternoon.

Isolated scattered showers and sprinkles will also be possible,
especially across higher terrain areas. Gusty NW winds may reach
25-35 mph at times. Highs mainly upper 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s across higher terrain.

Clearing and cool for Friday night, with lows mainly in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night, clouds rapidly increase from NW to se
Saturday morning, with some showers developing in the afternoon,
especially across the SW adirondacks and mohawk valley
extending into the lake george saratoga region. Areas south and
east of albany may remain dry until closer to sunset. Then for
Saturday night, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.

Locally heavy downpours will be possible as pwat's climb with
1.25-1.5 inches. Highs Saturday mainly in the lower 70s in
valleys, and 60s across higher terrain. MAX temps may occur
during the late morning early afternoon hours before cooling
back into the 60s once showers develop. Lows Saturday night
mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday, frontal system should move slowly south and east across
the region, with most likely timing during the morning hours.

However, there is some uncertainty whether the front slows down
its south east progression. If so, isolated to scattered
showers thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon. For now,
will confine most pops to the morning hours. Highs mainly

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Sunday night-Monday, weak high pressure should bring fair and
warm conditions, assuming aforementioned frontal system shifts
far enough to our south and east. Lows Sunday night mainly in
the 50s. Highs Monday should reach upper 70s to lower 80s in
valleys, and lower mid 70s across higher terrain.

Monday night-Thursday, warm front looks to approach from the
south and west late Monday night into Tuesday. Some form of mcs
activity could affect the region during this time with a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The front should lift north
of the region by Wednesday, before a cold front approaches from
the northwest for Wednesday night into Thursday. The air south
of the warm front could be quite warm to hot. For now, have
indicated MAX temps in valley areas reaching 85-90 for
Wednesday, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mainly in the
50s and 60s. Cooler for Thursday, but still possibly above
normal depending on the speed of the main cold front, with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Several bands clusters of showers thunderstorms will move across
the TAF sites through early this evening, with best chances at
kgfl and kalb over the next few hours. A few heavy downpours and
gusty winds will be possible as thunderstorms pass through.

Another round of showers thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as the main cold front moves through (most likely
between 00z-02z fri). In the wake of the front, expect mainly
dry conditions later tonight.

On Friday, as an upper level disturbance passes through,
isolated showers sprinkles will be possible after 15z fri.

As for flight conditions, outside of showers thunderstorms,
mainlyVFR conditions are expected, although MVFR CIGS will
remain possible at kpsf through 20z thu. Areas of MVFR ifr will
be possible within showers thunderstorms.

South to southwest winds will average 8-13 kt with some gusts of
25-30 kt this afternoon evening. Winds will shift into the
west northwest behind the cold front, with speeds of 8-12 kt and
gusts of 20-30 kt possible, especially at kalb and kpsf.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms through this evening.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra.

Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Wind gusts 25-35 mph possible tonight into Friday...

a cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into memorial day.

South to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph this
evening, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. In the wake of the
cold front, winds will shift into the west to northwest at 10-20
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph late tonight into Friday.

Hydrology
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a low pressure and frontal system approaches and
moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of 1 4 to 1 2 an inch
are expected with locally higher amounts in some thunderstorms.

Some ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and low lying
areas is possible. The storms will be moving quite fast so no
significant hydrological impacts are expected at this time.

Another round of wet weather is expected Saturday afternoon and
night with another fast moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl
near term... Kl
short term... Kl
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl jpv
fire weather... Kl
hydrology... Iaa kl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY7 mi67 minS 515.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F59°F83%1010.2 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi69 minS 1110.00 miLight Rain68°F55°F65%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----CalmW5------------------S8S7SE5SE4S8--S5S5S5--S5
1 day ago------NW5--------------------NE3--N4N4
G14
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2 days ago--------------------------W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.60.71.83.24.45.25.55.34.43.22.31.50.600.51.72.93.74.24.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.10.60.823.44.55.25.55.24.23.12.21.40.400.71.93.13.84.24.23.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.