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Marine Weather and Tides Mariaville Lake, NY Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES 10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

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Sunrise 6:49AM

Sunset 4:32PM

Saturday November 17, 2018 6:26 PM EST (23:26 UTC)

Moonrise 3:06PM

Moonset 1:33AM

Illumination 74%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY

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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY

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Fxus61 kaly 172145 afdaly area forecast discussion national weather service albany ny 445 pm est Sat nov 17 2018 Synopsis A weak cold front will move south of the region tonight with high pressure briefly building in with diminishing lake effect activity. Mainly light snow will begin to overspread the region Sunday afternoon into the night time period, as a disturbance passing south of the region will be moving along the old frontal boundary, as temperatures for mid november will continue below normal. Near term until 6 am Sunday morning Lake effect moisture is trapped below a mid upper dry layer and some isolated scattered rain snow showers are extending east through the southern adirondacks. A few sprinkles and flurries extend into the lake george area to northern taconics and southern vt. High clouds are streaming east from the midwest and great lakes ahead of upper energy in the central u.S. That is timed to affect our region later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Persistent cloud cover and light winds will prevent temperatures from falling as much as they could. So, siding on warmer side of guidance with any lake effect scattered rain snow showers diminishing through the night. Lows in the 20s but near 30 southern areas and teens northern areas. Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday Ribbon of boundary layer moisture associated with low level flow off lakes will interact with a ribbon of upper energy and mid upper moisture seen in satellite imagery. There is a decent consensus in guidance ensembles for the upper dynamics and low level forcing along the leading edge of a quick burst of boundary layer cold advection and low level wind convergence across much of ny along and south of i-90 into southern vt and the berkshires. The southern periphery of the ribbon of moisture, upper energy and boundary layer forcing looks to be in the mid hudson valley and NW ct. So, a narrow band of snow is expected to extend across the western mohawk valley, schoharie valley and eastern catskills late Sunday afternoon, then build east through Sunday evening across the capital district, lake george region, southern vt and the berkshires. There will be a mix of rain and snow in the mid hudson valley and NW ct as boundary layer temperatures rise to or just above freezing Sunday evening and night. Just intermittent snow is expected along the northern periphery of the precipitation in parts of the southern adirondacks. Rain and snow ends from west to east late Sunday night and early Monday morning when coverage decreases and just some isolated scattered rain snow showers linger Monday afternoon. Snow amounts are expected to be 1 or 2 inches but maybe around 3 in higher elevations of the eastern catskills, southern green mountains and berkshires. An inch or so is likely in the western mohawk valley, southern adirondacks, and a dusting at best in the mid hudson valley and NW ct. Clouds will be slow to break up Monday afternoon, so temperatures will not be able to rise too much Monday afternoon, especially since another ribbon of upper energy will begin to approach with associated mid high cloud cover later Monday afternoon. Some lake effect cloudiness and snow shower activity should continue in the western mohawk valley and southern adirondacks Monday night with the modified cold advection. However, snow shower activity should become more organized and spread across our region Monday night through Tuesday as the next trailing upper energy interacts with the ribbon of moisture and tightening of the boundary layer moisture gradient and associated low level forcing. So, widespread clouds Tuesday with scattered snow rain showers over the entire region, with the best coverage in higher terrain. There is less consensus in sources of guidance ensembles for the timing and coverage of clouds and snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. There are differences in where the best coverage of precipitation sets up and whether there will be enough moisture for measurable precipitation or just a lot of clouds and flurries sprinkles. So, again, indicating scattered snow rain showers Tuesday until guidance gives more confidence to either reduce or increase chances for rain snow showers. Highs Sunday with the increasing cloud cover and onset of light snow in the 30s but upper 20s northern areas. Highs Monday after the steady snow ends in the 40s but 30s higher terrain. Highs Tuesday in the 30s but near 40 southern areas and 20s northern areas. Long term Tuesday night through Saturday The main concern for the upcoming long term period will be a very potent arctic cold front arriving Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening which looks to bring a surge of very cold air and potential for snow showers and snow squalls. This type of event would present dangerous driving conditions for the evening commute and those traveling Wednesday afternoon night to thanksgiving destinations. After that, unseasonably cold air settles in Thursday giving us a very cold thanksgiving day and night. Some areas could be near record low maximum temperatures for the calendar day. We start the long term period off with the shortwave from Tuesday exiting out to sea with subsidence in its wake giving us partial clearing. High pressure builds into the northeast for Wednesday with breaks of Sun and temperatures warming in the mid-upper 30s. However, an impressive 500mb cut off low in southern canada looks to dive southeastward into the northeast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ushering in a quick moving clipper and associated arctic cold front. The GEFS show this arctic air mass to be 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal which helps illustrates just how cold it is. With such a strong temperature gradient apparent at 850mb as this arctic front traverses the region, it is no surprise

that we also also see steepening lapse rates in the boundary layer as the front moves through. This is a typical set-up for snow squalls and the recently developed snow squall parameter highlights Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as a favorable period for snow squalls, especially for areas near and north west of the capital district. Since the boundary layer could mix up to 700mb with 925mb winds near 35-45knots, strong winds could also occur during any snow squalls. Temperatures initially could be in the mid- 30s but then drop quickly in the 20s during any snow squalls which could allow snow, albeit low accumulations, to accumulate on surfaces presenting a danger to drivers. Strong canadian high pressure near 1040mb quickly moves downstream into the northeast Wednesday night into the thanksgiving holiday with the strong pressure gradient likely keeping breezy conditions in place. Very strong cold air advection continues overnight in the wake of the arctic front with 850mb isotherms dropping impressively to -18c to -20c by 12z Thursday. Even though we should see sunshine, such a cold air mass will likely inhibit most locations across eastern ny and western new england from rising out of the 20s for the thanksgiving holiday. This could challenge record low maximum temperatures for the calendar day. Clear skies follow for Thursday night with winds weakening. Radiational cooling under this arctic air mass and a snow pack on the ground should allow temperatures to plummet overnight into the low teens and even single digits. High pressure remains firmly in place Friday giving us mostly sunny skies with below normal temperatures continuing, although not as cold as Thursday. Our high should shift into new england for Saturday giving us southwesterly return flow and temperatures finally warming back to near seasonable levels in the upper 30s to near 40. The next threat for precipitation then arrives Saturday night into Sunday. Aviation 22z Saturday through Thursday Bkn-ovc skies across the terminals with a westerly flow regime. Moisture trapped beneath a developing inversion, so CIGS will persist into the evening, mainly inVFR range. Some MVFR cigs will occur at kpsf through the afternoon hours. Lower level cigs will gradually erode this evening, with valley sites kpou kalb kgfl scouring out first then eventually kpsf as high pressure builds in. High and mid level clouds will increase towards Sunday morning ahead of a weak disturbance approaching from the south and west. Conditions will remainVFR through 18z Sunday. Winds the rest of today will be west-northwest around 10-12 kt, with some gusts up to 20 kt at kalb and kpsf. Winds tonight will gradually become light and variable. Outlook... Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Likely sn. Monday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Shsn... Sn. Monday night: low operational impact. Scattered shsn. Tuesday: low operational impact. Scattered shra... Shsn. Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx. Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn... Sn. Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn. Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx. Fire weather A weak cold front will move south of the region tonight with high pressure briefly building in with diminishing lake effect activity. Mainly light snow will begin to overspread the region Sunday afternoon into the night time period, as a disturbance passing south of the region will be moving along the old frontal boundary, as temperatures for mid november will continue below normal. Hydrology Flows will continue to lower in the colder than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather, except for lake effect snow showers over the western adirondacks into the western mohawk valley. A disturbance moving along a front south of the region will bring some light snowfall amounting to light accumulations of a few inches or less late Sunday afternoon through Monday. Another disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday with light qpf. Colder than normal temperature persist into the thanksgiving holiday with flows continuing to recede. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website. Aly watches warnings advisories Ct... None. Ny... None. Ma... None. Vt... None. Synopsis... Nas near term... Nas short term... Nas long term... Speciale aviation... Jpv fire weather... Nas hydrology... Nas

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	57 mi	57 min		40°F			1022 hPa	31°F

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Schenectady Airport, NY	7 mi	41 min	WNW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	30°F	75%	1022 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY	15 mi	36 min	WNW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	28°F	65%	1022.6 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.