Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 6:59PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:35AMMoonset 5:22PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 248 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 17 2017 Port Washington Wi To Whitehall Mi South...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming south. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201710180330;;007756 FZUS63 KLOT 171948 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Expansive high pressure of 30.4 inches will settle over the eastern Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic Coast through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.4 inches near James Bay will move to northern Quebec tonight. A second and much stronger low averaging 28.8 inches will take a similar track across northern Manitoba Wednesday to Hudson Bay on Thursday. The cold front trailing from this low will move across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. Another strong low pressure area will move across the Canadian Prairies on Friday and Saturday. LMZ080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-180330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171924
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
324 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 305 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
the rest of the week looks quiet with increasing temperatures
especially for Friday and Saturday, with low 70s expected. These
temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid to late
october. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated for much of the week.

The next chance for showers looks to hold off until later Saturday
into Sunday.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 305 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
quiet conditions expected in the short term. Medium range model
guidance is indicating an h500 shortwave moving through on
Wednesday which will provide a subtle shift from the SW flow
pattern today and Wednesday to a more westerly flow and slightly
cooler temps advecting in at h850. This translates to a slight
drop in temps on Thursday by a few degrees, especially near and
north of i-96.

In terms of cloud cover, we are expecting a good amount of
sunshine with some intervals of high clouds possible, mainly on
Thursday morning, looking at the GFS h250 rh. Other than this, the
skies will be mostly sunny to completely clear.

Winds on Wednesday will not be as strong as today, at least for
inland locations. Expecting MAX gusts of 20 to 25 mph with the
highest wind gusts likely across west central lower mi with h850
llj core moving overhead.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 305 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
three distinct time frames of similar weather in the long term. The
first is a warmer and mainly dry period from Friday through
Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday night should feature a band
of rain showers moving through the great lakes region along a cold
frontal passage. Finally Monday into Tuesday will feature cold air
advection and lake effect rain showers at times.

Friday through Saturday looks mainly dry in the southerly warm air
advection ahead of the front. There are some timing differences with
the front with the GFS and the canadian being faster than the ecmwf.

The ECMWF is about 12 hours slower with the frontal passage. We look
to be 10-15 degrees above normal for highs which will be in the
lower 70s.

Saturday night through Sunday night the band of rain showers will be
working through the area with Saturday night and Sunday being the
periods with the best chances for rain. Sunday will be cooler with
highs in the 60s due to the clouds and precipitation.

Monday into Tuesday we should see lake effect rain showers develop
as delta t's over lake michigan increase into the upper teens c on
Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday look to be the best chances for
lake precip as the upper trough will be overhead. Highs by next
Tuesday look to be below normal in the lower 50s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 144 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
the main weather feature in terms of aviation the next 24 hours
will be the wind. Southwest winds of 15-25 knots are expected
through about 23z, at which time it should diminish to about 5-10
knots. South winds will pick up again on Wednesday morning after
14z to 12-25 knots. Otherwise look forVFR conditions and mainly
clear skies the next 24 hours.

Marine
Issued at 305 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
decided to upgrade the SCA to a gale warning on Wednesday from
whitehall north based on updated wind guidance from high res
models. The timing of the gales will likely hold off until mid to
late afternoon Wednesday for this region. Further south, gales are
not anticipated and will go ahead and extend the SCA through 08z
Thursday to match up the end time of the gale warning.

Nevertheless, a rough chop is expected on the lake with 5 to 8
foot waves common into Wednesday and early Thursday morning.

Hydrology
Issued at 305 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
most of the area rivers have reached their peak from the heavy
rainfall event over the weekend. The exception is the kalamazoo
river at new richmond... Which should reach its crest early
Wednesday before returning below bankfull stage early Thursday.

High pressure will continue to dominate the area weather through
Wednesday... With a dry frontal passage expected Thursday. The next
significant rain event is not expected until later Saturday into
Sunday... When a stronger frontal system moves through the region.

The dry weather will allow area rivers to return to typical flows
for late october.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for lmz848-849.

Gale warning from 2 pm Wednesday to 4 am edt Thursday for lmz848-
849.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for lmz844>847.

Synopsis... Hoving
short term... Hoving
long term... Duke
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Mws
marine... Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi35 min SW 16 G 19 62°F 61°F8 ft1019.6 hPa51°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi53 min S 20 G 24 61°F 1019.3 hPa53°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi45 min SW 19 G 21 63°F 61°F5 ft1019 hPa (-1.4)
45161 28 mi95 min SW 18 G 19 61°F 60°F6 ft1019.2 hPa (-0.8)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi35 min SW 16 G 17 62°F 1019.4 hPa (-1.5)53°F
45168 34 mi35 min SW 16 G 19 62°F 59°F5 ft1020.8 hPa (-1.4)49°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi35 min SSW 16 G 17 60°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi35 min SSW 8.9 G 12 62°F 1022 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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N24
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NW5
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G27
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W30
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G36
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NW26
G33

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi42 minSW 22 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy65°F46°F52%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW8S4S4S5S5S6S6S4CalmS4SW9S7SW10SW11SW12SW11SW15
G21
SW20
G28
SW18
G29
SW19
G28
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G31
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G31
1 day agoN8N10
G17
N6N53CalmNW4CalmE4SE3CalmS4CalmCalmNE4E4E5SE7S4S65W7W9W8
2 days agoS6S5SE9S13S11S9S12SE19
G28
S13S14S11S15
G22
SW14SW17
G25
SW24
G31
SW24
G31
NW12
G25
W14
G24
W13
G30
W17
G25
NW10
G22
NW11
G20
N11
G20
N10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.