Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:40PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 10:43 AM EDT (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 801 Am Cdt Tue Apr 25 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Chance of rain showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt shifting northeast 10 to 20 kt Friday night. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201704252130;;241854 FZUS63 KLOT 251301 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 801 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.5 INCHES... WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHILE FILLING. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-252130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 251039
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
639 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 302 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
a low pressure system developing over the southern plains region
will track northeast through Thursday... Reaching the western great
lakes. Southerly winds ahead of this system will draw up a warm
and increasingly moist airmass. As a result the dry weather
pattern that we have seen over the past few days will give way to
showers and thunderstorms by the Thursday.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 302 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
models are indicating an increasing potential for showers and
thunderstorms... Although the trend continues to support a delay in
onset.

It looks like the greatest potential for showers and thunderstorms
will be Wednesday night into Thursday. This is when a strong low
level jet moves in from the southwest. This... Coupled with
instability and some stronger deep layer shear may support a few
stronger storms. SPC has the marginal risk over parts of southwest
lower mi... Mainly for later Wednesday night. Models do show a mid
to upper level wave taking on a negative tilt as it moves in from
the southwest later Wednesday night into Thursday. This is when i
will feature the highest pops. Will also mention the potential
for stronger storms in the hazardous weather outlook.

I did raise temperatures slightly for the daytime periods today
and Wednesday. With the delayed arrival of the precipitation along
with continued warm air advection... Rather warm conditions will
move in. I would not be surprised to see a few 80 degree readings
on Wednesday... Especially battle creek to jackson region.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 302 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
an active wx pattern will develop through most of the long range
fcst period.

A weak high pressure ridge will build in Thursday night into
Friday and bring a brief period of dry wx. However a warm front
draped across the lower great lakes region will focus development of
rain and perhaps some convection Saturday through Saturday
night.

A slow moving low pressure system will move into the great lakes
region Sunday through Sunday night and focus development of more
widespread rain and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall
Sunday through Sunday night could be heavy as ample gulf moisture
will move north into our region.

The cold front will most likely move through Sunday night with
cooler weather to follow for early next week as the upper level
trough axis moves over the great lakes region Monday. Temperatures
should average near to slightly above normal Friday through the
weekend before cooling to slightly below normal by Monday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 637 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
models have been trying to develop MVFR and ifr conditions this
morning and so far this has not happened. For now will keep the
conditionsVFR. Elevated rain showers were developing toward klan.

This airmass is quite dry below these showers so it does not look
like the rain will reach the ground.

Later tonight as the moisture increases... Some risk exists for
lower clouds or light fog. Will feature MVFR conditions.

Marine
Issued at 302 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
the southerly flow will set up today and strengthen into Wednesday
as the low pressure system approaches from the southwest. The
longer fetch will favor the northern zones for higher wave
heights. Right now conditions are forecast to become marginally
supportive of a small craft advisory for Wednesday. Will hold off
on the issuance at this time.

Hydrology
Issued at 126 pm edt Mon apr 24 2017
most river streamflow rates are running between the 75th and 85th
percentiles for april 24, so they are still running above normal
despite most having fallen below bankfull. An active weather pattern
will return late Wednesday and continue into next week. The concern
for rebounding river levels and possible flooding remains,
especially after the rain event likely to occur between Saturday to
Monday. A majority of the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members
produce at least 2 inches of rainfall over the area by next
Monday.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... Laurens
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Cas
marine... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi34 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 47°F1 ft1008.1 hPa45°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi44 min ESE 7 G 9.9 62°F 33°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi54 min ESE 12 G 14 46°F 41°F2 ft1007.1 hPa (+0.0)44°F
45161 28 mi44 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 46°F1 ft1008 hPa (+0.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi34 min SSE 5.1 G 8 63°F 1007.6 hPa49°F
45168 34 mi34 min S 9.7 G 12 57°F 48°F1 ft1007.8 hPa47°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi44 min SE 13 G 17 62°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi51 minSE 1110.00 miFair62°F50°F65%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE7E11E10E13--SE13SE14
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1 day agoW5W7W7W7NW9NW8NW5W5W5NW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4E5E6E7E7E6E6E7E5
2 days agoE5E866W10W10NW9NW10NW9NW7NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.