Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday March 23, 2019 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201903240330;;809856 Fzus63 Kmkx 231941 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 241 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.3 inches over southern lake michigan will shift to the east coast tonight. The low pressure system of 29.8 inches over the kansas/nebraska border will move over illinois Sunday night. Meanwhile, a cold front dropping through lake michigan Sunday evening will bring gusty northerly winds. Gale force winds are likely Sunday evening into Monday over the southern two thirds of the lake. A gale warning is now in effect for that period. Quiet conditions are then expected as high pressure of 30.6 inches settles over the great lakes through Tuesday. Low pressure approaching from the plains will bring our next chance for gusty southerly winds over lake michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Lmz080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-240330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 241 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019 two rivers wi to manistee mi south...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt backing to east 15 to 25 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming north to 30 kt late. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..North gales to 35 kt becoming northeast to 30 kt late. Chance of rain in the evening. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds to 30 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday..South winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 231930
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
- splendid conditions will continue into early Sunday.

- low chances for precipitation remain mainly south of i-96
Sunday evening into early Monday with minimal expected impacts.

- another stretch of splendid conditions is expected into the
middle of next week.

Discussion (this evening through next Saturday)
issued at 330 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
it's a beautiful day out there with nearly cloudless skies across
the entire great lakes and light winds. The high pressure system
responsible for our pleasant day is currently centered over
central indiana, and will continue drifting south and east
tonight. As such, we expect calm conditions to extend into the
overnight hours with mostly clear skies, light winds, and lows in
the lower 30s (great viewing conditions for the aurora borealis
should it appear). Most of Sunday will be similar to today, but
warmer with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 and increasing
clouds.

As has been discussed for several days now, a cold front will swing
through lower michigan Sunday evening early Monday with a surface
wave trailing from the southwest. Forecast deterministic and
ensemble model guidance continues to suggest neither feature will
bring widespread or heavy precipitation, with areas along and
south of i-96 still favored to see anything measurable. The eps
ensemble mean QPF along both the i-96 and i-94 corridors is a mere
0.05", with individual solutions offering anything from 0.00 to
0.10". A glimpse at forecast thermal and moisture profiles reveals
there'll be a lot of dry air to work through to even get
precipitation, with light rain as the preferred precipitation
type. However, a few snowflakes if not a brief period of light
snow is possible after dark Sunday mainly along and south of i-94.

Indeed, this system doesn't look to be a big deal.

Monday through the middle of next week continues to look dry and
pleasant with a gradual warming trend and ample opportunities to
see the sun. Of note is the airmass will be fairly dry, with
relative humidities falling to the 20-30% during the afternoon
hours Monday through Wednesday. Since winds don't look too bad--
generally below 20 kts through the middle of the week--we don't
anticipate elevated wildfire conditions. However we are getting
to the time of year to pay attention to fire weather concerns as
fuels are likely beginning to dry out (of course where no snow
remains).

We continue to see a signal for an active end to the week with
increased precipitation chances, though both the eps and gfs
ensemble solution spaces are still vast. There's lots of time to
let things shake out.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 201 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
vfr conditions are expected the next 24 hours or through 18z on
Sunday. Skies will be clear this afternoon and evening. Clouds
will increase and lower and thicken overnight with cloud bases
around 15,000ft lowering to near 7,000ft Sunday morning. We feel
the TAF sites will stay precipitation free through 18z on Sunday.

Winds will be west becoming southwest this afternoon and evening
at 5-10 knots. Winds will become light overnight.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
rivers primarily in the grand and muskegon river basins will
continue to fall in the coming days with no significant
precipitation expected over the next four to five days. River level
falls across the far north may be slower than normal as gradual
snowmelt continues; however, no flooding is expected in the coming
days. Chances for precipitation, possibly widespread, will
increase toward the end of next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi41 min 33°F 34°F1025.6 hPa30°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi23 min SW 9.9 G 11 36°F 1027.3 hPa (-1.7)29°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi23 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 34°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi23 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi30 minW 910.00 miFair43°F26°F51%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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NW10N7NW5NW5N4N4CalmN3W4W3N4NW3N3CalmNW4N4W5W5NW64W9
1 day agoNW10W6W5W6W9SW5--SW9W10W8NW5N7N6N7NW6N9N8
G16
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2 days agoSE5SE5SE3SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4NE3NE4CalmN4N6NE7N5W6NW4NW10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.