Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:12PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:44AMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201905261515;;477216 Fzus63 Kmkx 260743 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 243 Am Cdt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A cold front trailing from canadian low pressure of 29.5 inches will continue moving south out and exit lake michigan early this morning. This front is bringing a shift to a more northerly wind. High pressure of 30.0 inches will settle over lake michigan for today and tonight. Modest easterly winds will then develop on Monday ahead of low pressure of 29.5 inches moving from the central great plains toward western wisconsin. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-261515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 243 am cdt Sun may 26 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..North winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers this morning, then slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Rain showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 260723
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
323 am edt Sun may 26 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 323 am edt Sun may 26 2019
- showers and a few thunderstorms south of i-96 today
- memorial days will start out with mostly clear skies then
showers and thunderstorms will move toward evening
- showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning with
heavy rain the most significant threat
- a stronger system will move across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms

Discussion (today through next Saturday)
issued at 323 am edt Sun may 26 2019
seems the shortwave tracking east on the southern stream jet is a
touch farther north next expected to today. So the area of showers
with a few thunderstorms is now farther north. I would expect to
see showers and a few thunderstorms near and south of i-94 today.

All of the high resolutions models now show this. There between
500 and 1000 j kg of mu CAPE near and south of i-96 during the
midday hours today. Even so most of stronger storms will be south
of michigan today. The front should stall along i-80 today keeping
the warmer and moist air south of michigan.

Expect two periods of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. The
first is Monday night into Tuesday as a wave on the front south of
michigan tracks east (models have been shifting this system south
run after run since the 23rd). Then a shearing out southwest conus
upper low moves into the area while a strong northern stream wave
is digging strongly south from the arctic. So that should result
in even better storms and heavy rain Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Looking at the bigger picture we have a blocking upper high over
greenland in conjunction with upper level ridge over the
southeast CONUS this is also not moving anywhere in the short
term. This has resulted in periods of showers and thunderstorms
over this area for the last week or so. This patten will continue
into Wednesday before and upstream pacific system flattens the
southeastern CONUS ridge by the end of the week.

So, the bottom line is very wet weather patten Monday night into
at least early Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal as
the front does not get far enough north or south to push the
really cooler air south or gets far enough north to bring the more
tropical air into this area.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 159 am edt Sun may 26 2019
latest radar shows a large area of convection moving east across
illinois. These showers storms may clip far southern lower
michigan later this morning and early afternoon but should stay
south of the TAF sites. Expecting rainyVFR through the period.

Marine
Issued at 323 am edt Sun may 26 2019
with the front not moving much winds will not be all that strong
at the surface so I do not see a small craft advisory issue for
some time to come. However some marine fog is possible as
thunderstorms from time to time into Wednesday.

Hydrology
Issued at 703 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
Monday afternoon into Tuesday is our next opportunity for
significant rainfall as a more concentrated round of showers and
thunderstorms may bring an inch or more to portions of the region.

Additional rainfall is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Generally speaking, we expect the majority of locations along
rivers to hold below flood stage but there may be exceptions
especially along the muskegon river. Also, if models trend higher
with rain amounts then more locations may be at risk, especially
along smaller rivers and streams. There will also be the
possibility for ponding of water on roads and low- lying spots in
areas with locally heavy rainfall.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... 04
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi38 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 47°F1 ft1014.2 hPa47°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi58 min NNW 6 G 8.9 54°F 58°F1013.2 hPa (-0.3)54°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi48 min NW 9.7 G 12 48°F 40°F1014.4 hPa47°F
45161 28 mi58 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 48°F1013.7 hPa (+0.6)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi48 min N 5.1 G 5.1 54°F 1014.1 hPa53°F
45168 34 mi38 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 52°F1 ft1013.9 hPa51°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi58 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 61°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 7 64°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi65 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair65°F60°F84%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW16
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SW11SW11SW6W6W8W9W9W8W8NW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3NE3SE7SE9SE5CalmE3CalmE8SE13SE12E7SE8SE8E8SE9SE10SE9E4SE5
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2 days agoSW12
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W5W3NW4CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.