Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday January 17, 2019 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201901172215;;494934 Fzus63 Kmkx 171444 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 844 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 30.0 inches will move from the southern plains to indiana today. Generally light winds south winds are expected over lake michigan today. Winds will become west to northwest tonight as high pressure of 30.5 moves across south-central canada. Another low pressure system of 29.5 inches will move from the southern plains into the central kentucky and tennessee Friday night and Saturday. This will bring a return of gusty north to northeast winds to lake michigan that linger through the rest of the weekend. Freezing spray is possible Friday into the weekend. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-172215- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 844 am cst Thu jan 17 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to west. Chance of light freezing drizzle and slight chance of snow through mid morning, then slight chance of drizzle, light freezing drizzle and snow this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of drizzle, light freezing drizzle and snow in the evening, then slight chance of light freezing drizzle overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Snow likely in the evening, then snow overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Saturday night..Northeast winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171150
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
650 am est Thu jan 17 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 319 am est Thu jan 17 2019
- flurries and very light snow showers this afternoon and evening
- light snow mainly near to south of i-96 Friday night and Saturday
- coldest airmass of the season moves in Sunday Monday

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 319 am est Thu jan 17 2019
a weak southern stream low pressure system will bring very light
snow showers and flurries this afternoon and evening. Very little
(less than a half an inch) to no snow accumulations are forecast
with this system. A very brief period of light freezing drizzle is
possible later this evening as deeper moisture peels away but some
low level moisture lingers.

A high pressure ridge will bring a brief period of tranquil wx
late tonight through Friday aftn. However light snow will develop
mainly near to south of i-96 Friday evening in an area of
isentropic ascent and increasing mid level frontogenetical
forcing. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are expected by 12z
sat with relatively higher end amounts most probable near to south
of i-94.

Light snow will continue Saturday as the main sfc low moves ene
across the tn lower oh valley regions. Additional snow
accumulations of up to two inches are expected near i-94 with
lighter amounts of an inch or less along the i-96 corridor. This
will bring total snow for this event into the 1 to 4 inch range.

Brisk northerly flow CAA will usher in the coldest airmass of the
season Sunday when high temps will only reach the upper single
digits to middle teens. Low temps Sunday night will fall to below
zero over portions of our fcst area with the fresh snow cover and
clearing skies in subsidence under the high pressure ridge. Max
temps Monday will only reach the teens.

Larger medium range guidance discrepancies arise toward the middle
portion of next week which leads to considerable uncertainty. An
overall medium range guidance consensus suggests potential for a
synoptic snow event Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps will moderate a
bit by then but will still average below normal for this time of
year.

Bitterly cold arctic air is poised to advect into our region
for the last week of january. Interestingly the 00z operational
ecmwf is also now showing this potential for the final days of
january. This notion is more in line with the fv3-gfs which has
been consistent in showing bitterly cold air for our area for the
last week of january.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 650 am est Thu jan 17 2019
ceilings will lower to MVFR this morning if they have not already.

Expecting ifr ceilings from grr east and south this afternoon
through much of tonight, greatest confidence at azo btl jxn. Tempo
ifr visibility possible at any airport due to light snow but will
be difficult to pin down when. Winds fairly light, shifting from
east to south to west during the next 12 to 18 hours.

Marine
Issued at 319 am est Thu jan 17 2019
wave heights will be minimal today due to offshore southeast to
southerly winds of only around 5-15 kts. Wave heights will ramp up
somewhat late tonight into Friday to around 2 to 5 feet as winds
veer to the northwest and increase to around 10-20 kts.

Hydrology
Issued at 327 pm est Wed jan 16 2019
water levels are dropping and are near-normal for this time of year
on most of our rivers and streams. Continue to gradually fall on
most of our rivers and streams. New ice formation has largely
stalled as temperatures have warmed up to near freezing, but we are
primed for significant ice growth as soon as cold temperatures
return. It still looks like that will occur this weekend as the
coldest air of the season (so far) plows into lower michigan.

In addition, any snow that happens to fall on Saturday while the
temperatures are falling will increase the growth of new ice even
more. By the end of next week, many of our streams will probably
have a solid cover of ice. Between now and then will be our most
vulnerable window for ice jams to form. As we head into the
weekend and early next week, locations prone to ice jam flooding
should pay extra attention to the rivers and prepare now for
possible fast changes in water levels.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Laurens
discussion... Laurens
aviation... Cas
hydrology... Anh
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi53 min E 8.9 G 9.9 28°F 33°F1019.4 hPa28°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi47 min E 2.9 G 8.9 29°F 1020 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi54 minESE 710.00 miOvercast28°F21°F75%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N6N5W6N5NE4NE4NE3NE4NE4E4E5E8E6E7E8E6E7E7SE7SE6E6SE6E7
1 day agoSW8SW12SW12W13
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2 days agoW7W8SW8SW7SW7SW7SW5W8W9W10SW13W11W10SW12SW9W10W7W9SW7SW6S6SW6S4W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.