Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:19 PM EST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:26PMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 859 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast early this afternoon, then becoming southeast late. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201811142215;;294431 FZUS63 KMKX 141459 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 859 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of 30.6 inches will move from northern Illinois into New England today. Weak winds for today, followed by breezy south to southwest winds over the northern half of the lake tonight and Thursday. Breezy southwest winds then expand to the south half late Thursday night and become west northwest Friday. Weak low pressure of 29.6 inches will be moving slowly across Lake Superior Thursday night into eastern Ontario and Quebec on Friday, contributing to the breezy winds over Lake Michigan. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-142215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 141744
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1244 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 306 am est Wed nov 14 2018
sunshine is expected to return for at least part of Wednesday to
contrast a very cloudy month so far. Temperatures will still be
well below normal but winds will be light and variable. The next
system approaching from the south will spread snow into a portion
of lower michigan during the latter half of Thursday, possibly
creating slick spots on untreated roads (especially bridges) after
dark. Cold temperatures persist into early next week, though
significant precipitation does not appear likely.

Discussion (today through next Tuesday)
issued at 306 am est Wed nov 14 2018
starting to see erosion of the low-level clouds on satellite in
far southern michigan. Though we are optimistic that subsidence,
falling inversion heights, dry air, and boundary layer flow
shifting north and east will eventually defeat the lake-effect
clouds, it may take until late morning for clearing north and west
of gr. Grand rapids has not had a day yet this month with more
than 25 percent of possible sunshine. We have had 20 days in a
row of mostly cloudy skies. The surface high pressure center will
be passing through this afternoon, so winds will be light.

Moisture and lift spreading in from the upper-level low to our
south on Thursday will produce light precipitation in a portion
of the area, beginning late morning or afternoon from south to
north. Initially this precip aloft and at the surface may
encounter temperatures a little above freezing, though evaporative
cooling should convert any mix to snow fairly quickly. Expecting
a majority of precip to fall as snow with wet-bulb temperatures
through the profile holding just on the cold side of 0 c.

Snow liquid ratios likely to be rather low with a thin and high
dgz, and most of the moisture and lift focused in temperature
layers favoring plate and column crystal habits, not to mention
some riming. Overall, amounts an inch or less are expected. Models
have trended farther north again, now placing all areas
south east of holland to clare in a fair chance for snow.

Some concern for slick spots on untreated roads after dark
Thursday evening with temperatures a little below freezing.

Could get a little (freezing) drizzle mixing in overnight into
Friday. Despite the cold surface temperatures, the mid-level
inversion at or warmer than -10 c should keep a lid on lake effect
shower potential over the weekend, though some flurries are
possible.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1245 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
vfr conditions to continue through tonight then ceilings will
lower on Thursday afternoon with MVFR conditions by late
afternoon across southern lower michigan. Wind will be north today
and east on Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 306 am est Wed nov 14 2018
winds are relaxing and waves diminishing for Wednesday. Southerly
winds Wednesday night into Thursday may cause waves to flirt with
small craft advisory conditions off big sable point. Small craft
advisory conditions are possible Friday as winds become more
westerly.

Hydrology
Issued at 1022 am est Tue nov 13 2018
river levels are mostly above normal for this time of year, though
they are below bank full and steady or falling. The precipitation
over the next week will be limited in amount and frozen, so rivers
will continue to fall. Despite the cold weather, freeze-up ice jams
are not a concern, as water temperatures in the main-stem rivers are
still well above freezing.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Cas
discussion... Cas
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... 63
marine... Cas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi37 min ENE 5.1 G 8 31°F 1033.1 hPa14°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi29 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 30°F 46°F2 ft1035.1 hPa (-1.4)22°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi19 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 31°F 1035.4 hPa (-2.0)16°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi19 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 33°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi19 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 1033.9 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi26 minE 510.00 miFair33°F18°F54%1034.7 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W8
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W8NW6NW6NW4NW7NW7NW8NW5NW6NW7NW6W5NW8NW6N33NE5NE4CalmCalmE5
1 day agoNE4NE3N4N5N5N6N5N7N6NE4N3CalmCalmS3Calm3N8N8N7N5N6CalmNW11NW12
G18
2 days agoSW11
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SW11SW10SW6CalmW7S4CalmW5CalmCalmCalmW6W5W6NW6N4CalmCalmNE4NE5NE6N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.