Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:11PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:31 PM EDT (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 241 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201805250315;;467643 FZUS63 KLOT 241941 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 241 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.2 inches will continue to drift away from the Lakes and across the mid-Atlantic region tonight. Farther northwest, an area of low pressure near Lake Winnipeg will deepen to 29.5 inches tonight, then will slowly track southeast with its associated cold front across the northern Lakes through Sunday morning while weakening to 29.8 inches. The diffuse front will sag south of Lake Michigan Sunday night. High pressure of 30.2 inches will spread across Ontario north of the Lakes Monday and Tuesday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 241900
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
warm weather will remain in place over the area through the next
week. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s everyday.

Humidity levels will increase this weekend, and then drop a bit
early next week.

Rain chances will be rather low much of the weekend, however they
will not be zero. Friday will remain dry, with shower storm chances
increasing a little on Saturday. A majority of the time will remain
dry, especially toward the lakeshore. The chance will be best also
in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances will drop by next
Tuesday as a slightly cooler air mass moves in. They will return by
Thursday of next week.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
no impacts expected through Friday across the area. Shower storm
chances will increase beginning Friday night and linger into
Saturday evening.

Upper ridging situated just west of the area today, will slowly
traverse the state through Friday afternoon. Limited moisture return
through Friday and sufficient subsidence with the ridge will keep
the area dry. A bit more humidity will sneak in on Friday, but will
not be enough to cause rain.

A short wave will approach the area Friday night and Saturday as the
upper ridge shifts east of the area. The better forcing with the
short wave will remain just north of the area. The associated sfc
front will try and drop down into the area, but likely gets hung up
just north with the short wave staying mostly north. This will keep
the better chances for showers storms north Fri night.

Then on Saturday as the sfc wave moves by, wrly winds will likely
stabilize much of the area with flow off of the lake. Inland areas
could see ml capes increase to 1500 j kg before the west winds kick
in. Deep layer shear is fairly weak, so we do not expect anything
organized.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
we could see an afternoon or evening shower storm Sunday with temps
well into the 80s once again and dew points around 60. The coverage
will once again be limited as there will not really be a good focus,
other than maybe something along the lake breeze or any other
boundary that could form on the small scale.

The chance for afternoon showers storms on Mon has gone down
compared to previous forecasts. The models indicate that a back door
cold front will drop south through the area Mon morning. This will
shunt instability south of the area. High pressure will build in for
tue, along with a NE wind around the high to our north.

The ridge will slip east of the area mid-week next week, and allow
warm and humid conditions to return to the area. Eventually enough
instability will return to bring a chance of an afternoon evening
storm to the area. A short wave looks to come through around the
Thursday time frame, bringing a little better chance of rain.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 119 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
the aviation weather pattern looks rather quiet through the
period.VFR weather is forecasted with lighter than normal winds.

With the atmosphere continuing to dry out... The fog risk is
diminished. I did add wind gusts to kmkg by noon Friday... .But
those should remain under 20 knots.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
no headlines expected through the holiday weekend, and likely
through much of next week. Winds will come up some beginning
tonight, and lingering into early Saturday ahead of a weak system.

The strongest winds will stay further north and offshore. Winds and
waves will try to approach advisory criteria, but are expected to
remain short of it at this time.

Winds coming up should keep the fog chances limited over the lake,
even as dew points come up a bit. Can not rule some fog out, but it
should not be significant enough at this time to need another
advisory.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
no hydrology issues expected over the next week, and likely beyond.

Any rainfall expected over the next week will be spotty at best, and
thus not cause impacts on the rivers and streams. The higher levels
currently on the rivers and streams will only fall through next
week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Njj
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Njj
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 49°F1018.7 hPa (-2.2)54°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi44 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 1018.4 hPa53°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi42 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 41°F1018.6 hPa (-2.4)51°F
45161 28 mi32 min SE 3.9 G 3.9
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi32 min SSW 5.1 G 6 71°F 1018.2 hPa (-2.6)55°F
45168 34 mi32 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 63°F1018.7 hPa (-2.1)56°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi32 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 77°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi32 min N 5.1 G 5.1 75°F 1019 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi39 minW 610.00 miFair79°F54°F42%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE4S4S4SW10SW8W10W8W8W7W63W6
1 day agoW4W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W8W8NW6W7NW53
2 days ago--------------------------------NW6NW5NW7W10W9W10W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.