Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:13PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:59 AM EST (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:28AMMoonset 3:57PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 242 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..West winds 10 to 20 kt quickly increasing to 30 kt this morning. Snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late in the evening...then becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt late. Scattered snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 kt increasing to gales to 40 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201712151615;;919636 FZUS63 KLOT 150842 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 242 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.8 inches over Lake Superior will move east across the Great Lakes through Saturday morning before merging with a stronger low off Nova Scotia Saturday afternoon. A cold front trailing south from this low will move across the lake early this morning. A narrow ridge of high pressure averaging 30.1 inches will move across the lake tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.5 inches over Saskatchewan this afternoon will weaken to 29.9 inches as it moves southeast to Iowa Saturday and dissipates. A fairly nondescript pressure pattern will persist over the region this weekend with high pressure of 30.3 inches off the east coast and a strong 29.0 inch low tracking east across northern Canada. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-151615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 151201
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
701 am est Fri dec 15 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Fri dec 15 2017
a burst of lake effect snow is expected this morning. The increase
in intensity of the snow is due to an upper level disturbance
swinging across lake michigan. Through the course of the afternoon
the snow should wind down. For a time this morning though, travel
conditions will be poor with limited visibility and slippery roads.

The peak in the snow will be right around the morning commute in
most areas. Snowfall should range from 1 to 3 inches for areas along
and west of u.S. Highway 131 and an inch or less to the east. Some
additional light snow is possible tonight into Saturday as a
weakening warm front moves our way. A weakening low may bring us
some rain and snow on Sunday as warmer air will have moved into the
region from the south. Highs will remain in the 20s again today, but
by Sunday we should be well into the 30s.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 330 am est Fri dec 15 2017
focus in the short term is on three items... 1) a lake enhanced snow
event today, 2) the potential for a little warm air advection snow
tonight into Saturday and 3) a weakening low bringing precipitation
chances on Sunday.

The lake enhanced snow event today remains on track and made no
changes to the going winter weather advisory. If there is a trend in
the models from last night into tonight, it looks like snow totals
may be just a tad lower. 1 to 3 inches looks like it should cover
the bulk of the snow. The MAX in the event should be between now and
about 11am or so. The upper shortwave is seen in water vapor imagery
over northern wisconsin moving quickly toward central lake michigan.

This shortwave will give a boost to the lake effect snow through an
increasing depth of moisture and synoptic scale lift added to the
convective boundary layer. 925-850mb layer omega details why snow
totals will be held in check, which is the fact that the good lift
will be transitory across the western cwa. It is not sustained for
more than a few hours at any one location. Still, thinking impacts
can be expected as heavier snow bursts slicken up the roads right
around the time of the morning commute. The snow should wind down
this afternoon from west to east.

Tonight into Saturday a band of warm air advection snow will move
into the forecast area from the south. Trends have been for lesser
amounts to the snow. The weakening trend is due to the fact that the
low responsible for the warm air advection is filling with time as
it moves our direction. Thinking snowfall via this band will be an
inch or less.

On Sunday a surface low moves our direction from the south. The
upper shortwave associated with the low is moving into confluent
flow aloft and it is weakening with time. Have some rain and snow
showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, but model trends have
been for a weaker low and less in the way of precipitation. Impacts
should be nil as temperatures will be above freezing.

Most impactful weather in the short term will come this morning.

High temperatures will moderate some each day, with highs above
freezing in all areas by Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 330 am est Fri dec 15 2017
relatively quiet to start the week as the flow remains zonal and we
will have a soft southerly flow. Sunday night and Monday may see
some areas of fog and patchy drizzle, otherwise temps will be near
to slightly above normal. Light warm advection rain showers may
occur ahead of a cold front Monday night that may mix with snow
across central lower. We will have to watch to see if the cold
shallow air is completely scoured out, since some light freezing
rain could also occur across the interior north.

We should be brushed by colder air in the Tue Wed time frame behind
the departing front and we briefly get into upper troughiness. Still
looks cold enough for a quick shot of lake effect snows mainly
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Model differences arise toward the end of the forecast period. But
it does appear solid warm advection returns by Wednesday
night Thursday as upper troughing develops to our west, resulting
deep southwest flow. Surface low pressure develops in the plains
and heads for the great lakes into Thursday. After a mainly dry wed
we should see snow developing in the warm advection wing Wed night,
but this mixes and then eventually change to mostly rain into
Thursday as the low is expected to track somewhere near central lake
michigan by Thursday evening.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 701 am est Fri dec 15 2017
conditions are expected to dip into the MVFR category at all
locations this morning as lake effect snow showers sweep through
the TAF sites. Kgrr and kmkg will be most affected, where
conditions will dip to ifr at times through about 16z.

Visibilitieswill improve this afternoon toVFR in most area
although MVFR ceilings will linger in many areas.

West-southwest winds (240-260) will increase into the 12 to 25
knot range around 15-16z and remain at those levels until about
23z.

Tonight a band of snow will spread in from the south and
conditions should dip to MVFR again in all areas by Saturday at
12z.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Fri dec 15 2017
we expect building wave heights today due to increasing westerly
winds behind the passage of a trough of low pressure. The peak of
the wind should be around 18z to 19z and the waves should MAX out
this afternoon as well. Solid 7 footers look likely this afternoon
and early evening. Maintained the small craft advisory as is which
is in effect through much of tonight. It will take some time tonight
before the wave field dampens out as the winds only slowly subside.

Winds are expected to remain below 20 knots through the weekend, so
a relative calm out of the lake for this time of year.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm est Thu dec 14 2017
many rivers have iced over pretty quickly due to the snow and cold
temperatures. The looking glass near eagle has risen above bankfull
due to downstream ice constricting the flow. It is expected to
gradually fall but some fluctuations are still possible. Mild
temperatures early next week may soften the ice a bit. Water frozen
in the snowpack ranges from 0.5 to 1 inch in most locations, but a
full snowmelt is not expected anytime soon.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for miz037-
038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Jk
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Cas
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi42 min W 23 G 28 1009.6 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi30 min NNW 27 G 28 28°F 1011.2 hPa24°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi30 min W 22 G 25 29°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi60 min W 24 G 28 29°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi67 minW 147.00 miUnknown Precip28°F21°F75%1011 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S4S6S6S5S6S5S6S6S7S5S5SW3CalmW3S5S5S5S5S6S7S7SW17W14
1 day agoSE12SE13SE14
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2 days agoN11
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N4NE3N3N3CalmCalmS4S4S5S4SE4SE5S9S8S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.