Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 7:41 PM   Moonset 5:35 AM

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LMZ874 Expires:202404231530;;226336 Fzus63 Kmkx 230752 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 252 am cdt Tue apr 23 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
gusty southwest winds will persist today, as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from lake superior to lake huron. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the region today into this evening. Showers and some Thunderstorms are forecast with the frontal passage.
expect gusty west winds to turn north later this afternoon into this evening, from north to south across lake michigan. A period of north gales are expected tonight behind the cold front, and a gale warning has been issued. Building waves are expected as well tonight.
winds and waves will gradually lighten up Wednesday into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast across the region.
south winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty into the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-231530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 252 am cdt Tue apr 23 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning - .
Today - Southwest winds to 30 kt. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Tonight - West winds to 30 kt veering to north gales to 35 kt. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft. Wednesday - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Friday - Southeast winds to 30 kt. Rain showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Saturday - South gales to 35 kt. Showers likely. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 231137 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 737 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded

- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded

Showers out ahead of the incoming short wave will continue to spread over the region early this morning. The dry air at the surface delayed the onset of precipitation, however scattered showers continue to spread over the region and will continue through the first half of the morning. Coinciding with this short wave will be a strong low level jet. Winds upwards of 35 mph will be possible through the early morning hours. The 925 mb winds should become more amplified with more directional shear from the 850 and 700 mb layers. Looking at BUFKIT soundings CAMS have a weak capping inversion from 2,500 to 4KFT this afternoon. If this is breached, the steep low to mid level lapse rates of 7 to 9 C/KM should greatly aid in convection.

Couple those lapse rates, the strong shear from the LLJ and the cold air aloft and there is a decent chance for severe hail.
Latest mesoscale analysis has decent DCAPE moving into the region.
Given that, SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms for across the region this afternoon. Timing wise, latest CAMS brings the best opportunity for strongest convection will be late in the day associated with the cold front, around 00Z. A secondary LLJ is associated with that boundary as well, though it is weaker then the one moving through this morning.

- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Clearing skies under surface high pressure and very dry air at the lower levels will create favorable conditions for radiational cooling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s across a wide swath of southern Lower Michigan. The coldest temperatures will probably in the northeast counties where mid 20s can't be ruled out. The good news is that the trend of a slightly warmer airmass at 850 mb continues with recent model runs.

- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend

As this final blast of cold air departs the area, a reorientation of the longwave pattern will move into the central CONUS, setting Michigan up initially on the "sunny" side of a building upper ridge, but by Friday afternoon the ridge axis will have passed us and we'll fall into several days of deep southwesterly flow.

This pattern will allow much warmer and more humid air to stream into our state, along with fairly plentiful cloudiness. At least 2 major disturbances/shortwaves will move through this southwest flow, and bring rounds of rain and possibly storms beginning Friday night and continuing all weekend. It's unlikely the whole weekend will be a washout, but the exact timing and placement of these shortwaves are still pretty uncertain at this time, so some of the more pertinent forecast details remain elusive. Instability and the risk of possible severe weather will be monitored over the coming days, as breaks of sunshine during the day followed by one of these shortwaves coming through near peak heating could easily result in a severe threat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 729 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Initial batch of showers has underwhelmed as it came through, due in part to the dry air at the lower levels that had to be overcome. Rain has been minimal and ceilings have stayed well into VFR category overnight and this morning. We should see a break in the showers over most of the area for a good chunk of the morning and early afternoon - and may even see a few breaks of sun.
Exception is Jackson, where clouds and showers might hang on throughout much of the day without much break. Elsewhere, showers and a few storms are expected to develop mid afternoon and move through the area until mid evening, at which point the winds start to switch to more of a northwesterly direction as a cold front passes. Model guidance is suggesting development of an MVFR ceiling overnight into Wednesday morning, but cold air advection should limit the potential for things to get much worse/lower than that.



MARINE
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An active/hazardous period on Lake Michigan will continue through Wednesday. Gusty winds will continue with southerly flow this morning. Winds will briefly slacken over the lake this afternoon.
However winds will shift to the north to 30 kts behind the front tonight into Wednesday. Though the small craft remains, there is still a chance for brief periods of gales. Hazardous winds and waves should subside Wednesday night into Thursday as a sfc ridge builds overhead

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

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