Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:43PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:37 AM EST (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1241 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Overnight..West winds less than 10 knots. Cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Cloudy.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast around 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then rain likely Friday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 40 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201812101000;;566846 FZUS51 KBUF 100541 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1241 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-101000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 101118
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
618 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will remain stalled out near the south shore of
lake ontario today... While high pressure otherwise prevails across
our region. This will result in a mainly dry and quiet day with
widespread lower clouds persisting south of lake ontario... While a
fair amount of sunshine develops across the north country. The
leftover frontal boundary will then serve as the conduit along
which another weak low pressure system will push southeastward
and across our region through midweek... While bringing additional
chances for some spotty light precipitation at times.

Near term through tonight
Today a very weak frontal boundary will remain stalled out near
the south shore of lake ontario as its parent area of low pressure
over the canadian maritimes slides out to sea... And as a pair of
surface ridges crest to its north and south. With only very weak
forcing along the boundary thus becoming practically nonexistent
and available moisture remaining rather shallow... The front will
be hard-pressed to generate much if any of the way of precip... With
only a slight chance of such early this morning giving way to dry
weather for the balance of the day. With regard to ptype... Despite
the lack of a dendritic snow growth zone in the cloud bearing layer...

freezing drizzle appears unlikely given unfavorably high cloud
bases of 2-3 kft and the relatively dry boundary layer... So have
completely pulled this from the forecast in favor of just some
spotty flurries.

The above said... What the front will do is keep its attendant swath
of low level moisture draped across areas south of lake ontario today...

which will result in fairly widespread low cloud cover persisting
across much of the area. At the same time... Drier air working into
the north country will allow for the development of a fair amount of
sunshine across that particular region. As for high temperatures...

these will range from the upper 20s across the north country (where
a somewhat colder airmass will be in place) to the lower to mid 30s
south of lake ontario... Where highs will be held back some by the
widespread lower cloud cover.

Tonight the stalled out frontal boundary will begin to slowly push
northeastward again... In response to a shortwave trough and attendant
weak wave of low pressure sliding into the upper great lakes. This
will result in the lower clouds south of lake ontario expanding back
into the north country... While holding firmly in place elsewhere.

Meanwhile... The combination of lake influences and subtle increase
in lift along and ahead of the slow moving front may also help to
generate some additional spotty light precipitation from roughly the
lake ontario basin northeastward across the north country... Where the
shallow moisture field would again imply the potential for some spotty
flurries or light freezing drizzle... With the latter again appearing
to be a lesser (but still nonzero) possibility due to currently forecast
cloud bases. Otherwise the night should be mainly dry and quiet... With
low temps ranging from the mid teens across the north country (where
skies will be mainly clear initially) to the 20s south of lake ontario.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
While several strong shortwaves will make their way across the lower
great lakes during this period... We will be fortunate in that
widespread significant weather is not anticipated.

As we open this period on Tuesday... A pair of robust shortwaves
within a sharp mid level trough will drive southeast from the upper
great lakes... While a large but surprisingly weak surface reflection
will track by to our north across southern ontario. On the large
scale... A 30kt jet minima over quebec will set up some channelled
vorticity over lake erie along and there will 100m hgt falls over
the region... But with a relatively dry airmass (abv 5k ft) and a
staunch low level inversion... Pcpn will be limited to areas where
mesoscale processes will come into play.

Drilling deeper into the lake enhancement potential... The low level
flow will back to around 210-220 ahead of the approaching mid level
trough. There is also some question as to whether there will really
be any true instability over the lakes... At least during the morning
hours... As h85 temps are initially forecast to be in the vcnty of -6
to -8c. This would not be cold enough to establish instability over
lake temps of 4c... So any enhancement due to the lakes would be
minimal. As we work through the day... Weak cold advection and
increase in the synoptic moisture field would encourage a greater
lake response... Particularly northeast of lake ontario. Have thus
shaved back the pops from continuity... As well as the areal
coverage. Finally... As has been the case leading into this period...

the strong low level inversion does not extend high enough to enter
into the dendritic snow growth area. This means that any light pcpn
will initially fall as flurries or freezing drizzle. As the day
progresses though... Deeper synoptic moisture will settle over the
region and allow for more true snow showers to develop northeast of
the lakes.

The shortwaves will push the supporting mid level trough across our
forecast area Tuesday night... Along with a much deeper axis of
synoptic moisture. This should allow lake snow showers to blossom
east of the lakes during the evening hours... Then as the
corresponding low level boundary pushes through... Quickly veering
winds will aim scattered snow showers south-southeast of both lakes.

Snow accums should remain under an inch in most areas... Largely due
to the severely limited convective cloud depth and transitory nature.

On Wednesday... Strong ridging building east from the upper great
lakes will generate deep subsidence across our region while a fresh
dry airmass will move in from ontario. While this would normally be
the perfect recipe for dry weather and fairly rapid clearing... There
will be a northerly upslope flow to contend with through the midday
hours. The trapped moisture under the lowering subsidence cap could
be lifted enough orographically to produce some flurries or very
light snow showers... But again... The lack of a true dendritic snow
growth area will have to be taken into account. In any case... Any
light pcpn should be confined to the morning hours as veering winds
during the midday and afternoon will remove any reason for the
persistent cloud cover. For sites east of lake ontario... The
clearing should take place several hours earlier.

As the ridge moves east of our region Wednesday night... The next
shortwave will approach our region. Guidance the past few days has
experienced a lot of trouble handling this feature... And continues
to do so. One line of thinking takes this next system to our
north... With the other tracking by to our south. In either case...

clouds will increase over our region during the course of the
night... Especially over the western counties. Neither scenario is
expected to generate any pcpn for our region during the overnight.

The differences in the guidance packages becomes even more evident
on Thursday. While there is high confidence that there will be
plenty of clouds over our region... The track of the aforementioned
shortwave will be critical as to whether there will be any pcpn over
the region. The more unsettled solutions paint some light pcpn near
and east of lake ontario... Although this looks overdone given that
it will be too 'warm' for any lake effect or even lake enhancement.

That being said... Will only tweak continuity to avoid any
significant flip flopping. This will leave slight chc pops over the
bulk of the region... Which aligns fairly well with surrounding wfos.

While a progressive ridge will make its way across our region in the
wake of the debated shortwave Thursday night... A lot of eyes will be
focused on a large and potentially significant storm system that
will be churning across the lower mississippi valley. This next
feature is not expected to be problematic for our forecast area...

although it will certainly pose some forecast challenges as we head
through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. See below.

Long term Friday through Sunday
An anomalously strong southern stream storm system will play havoc
with our forecast during this period... As all of the medium range
guidance packages have had 'trouble' resolving its evolution and
subsequent track. This will result in lower than normal confidence
in our forecast.

The main problem that is being experienced by the models is whether
the large southern stream storm system will be able to phase with a
progressive trough that will make its way across the great lakes
region. A large number of earlier model runs favored a phasing of
the two branches... But the trend has shifted to keeping the two
features separate. This presents a huge forecast problem for our
region. Rather than experiencing a prolonged period of mild rainy
weather... The odds now slightly favor notably less precipitation
with a faster clearing trend during the weekend. Have thus carved
back on the pops fairly substantially while speeding up the timing
of improving weather late Saturday into Sunday. Again... Confidence
is lower than normal for this period... So check back frequently for
updated forecasts.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
Today a weak frontal boundary will remain stalled out near the south
shore of lake ontario... Before starting to slowly push back northeastward
tonight as weak low pressure develops into the upper great lakes. Given
the continued presence of this boundary and its attendant low level
moisture... Fairly widespread low clouds will persist across areas south
of lake ontario through the TAF period... With MVFR ceilings prevailing
across the lower elevations and a mix of ifr MVFR found across the higher
terrain. Meanwhile... Drier air east of lake ontario will result in mainly
vfr conditions prevailing across that particular region today... Before
MVFR ceilings return tonight in tandem with the returning frontal boundary.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... MVFR ifr ceilings in low stratus.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Friday... MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Marine
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled out near the south shore
of lake ontario today... While a pair of surface ridges crest to its
north and south. The resulting weak pressure gradient will therefore
lead to light to modest winds... And lingering wave action from Sunday
correspondingly diminishing to wave heights of a foot or less.

Tonight the frontal boundary will slowly start to push back north-
eastward in response to low pressure developing into the upper great
lakes... While the pressure gradient across the lower lakes region
gradually tightens in response to the approaching low. This will
result in freshening southwesterlies first on lake erie and then
on lake ontario... Though at this point it appears that winds and
waves will remain a little below advisory levels through tonight...

before potentially reaching lower-end advisory criteria on lake erie
Tuesday morning.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi38 min WSW 5.1 G 6 30°F 34°F1022.5 hPa (+0.5)19°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi38 min 28°F 1022.1 hPa (+0.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi38 min 29°F 1022.2 hPa (+0.4)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi38 min SW 6 G 7 31°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi38 min S 4.1 G 7 29°F 1023.2 hPa (+0.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi38 min SSW 4.1 G 6 31°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi44 minS 59.00 miOvercast28°F23°F81%1022.8 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi45 minSW 36.00 miFog/Mist27°F23°F85%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4W3SW6SW9SW12SW14SW15SW12SW14
G18
W8W7W6W6W4SW4S5SW3SW5W5W4CalmSW3SW4S5
1 day agoW11W11W10W9W13
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W11W8W9W10W8W7W10W9W6W7W5W6W11W6W6NW6NW6S4S6
2 days agoW7W6W7W9W8NW8W8N4NW6NW3CalmE5E3SE4S3S6SE7SE8SE8E6N7E3W5W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.