Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 8:02 AM EDT (12:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 645 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Today..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy this morning... Then becoming partly Sunny.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Friday night.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Sunday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 45 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201704261515;;288470 FZUS51 KBUF 261045 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 645 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ020-261515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 261045
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
645 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will track northward along the atlantic
coastline today, with a deck of clouds across our region slowly
giving way to some sunshine this afternoon and evening. A narrow
ridge of high pressure will provide for dry and summer-like
conditions through Thursday afternoon before a line of showers and
gusty thunderstorms pass across the region Thursday afternoon and
evening. A few of these storms will could be strong across western
portions of new york state.

Near term /through tonight/
Regional radars this morning display diminishing
showers/sprinkles east of lake ontario. IR satellite imagery,
and surface observations indicate that a deck of stratus clouds
covers much of the forecast region, with the westward extent of
the stratus across western pa and into ohio.

As convergence diminishes due to the low level jet weakening this
early morning these scattered rain showers will end shortly after
sunrise east of lake ontario. Forecast soundings of both the NAM and
gfs suggest that this thin deck of clouds will linger between 3 and
5k feet well into the afternoon hours before drier air from the
west, erodes the deck of strato-cumulus. With a light wind field
today will opt to side towards more of a cloudier day today.

Though a thin veil of moisture/clouds today we should be able to mix
close to the 850 hpa level, where temperatures of +12c east of lake
ontario and +16c across SW nys will reside. This will bring
afternoon highs into the low to mid 70s. Where clouds linger the
longest, east of lake ontario, high temperatures may remain in the
upper 60s.

Tonight we should complete the clearing trend, with a narrow ridge
of high pressure between an atlantic low, and midwest low providing
for continual light winds. As these light winds veer to southeast,
and later southerly overnight temperatures will dip into the mid to
upper 50s.

Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/
Near record warmth will be found across all of western and north
central new york to start this period... As our forecast area be
deeply immersed within a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold
front. H85 temps will already be in the mid to upper teens c across
the region as day breaks... So as the day progresses and full mixing
of the lower boundary layer takes place under Sun filled skies... We
can fully anticipate afternoon MAX temperatures to reach into the mid
80s for most areas. Readings will likely reach into the upper 80s
across the genesee valley and portions of the finger lakes region...

and with a south to southeast sfc-h925 flow in place... We can
confidently remove any of the cooling typically offered by the lakes
(specifically lake erie).

As mentioned... The warmth on Thursday should at least threaten the
current record highs for the date. These include... 84 at buffalo
(1984)... 86 at rochester (1990)... And 85 at watertown (2009). This
will certainly make it feel more like july rather than the end of
april. For what its worth... Many of the mainstream guidance packages
are woefully too low with their Thursday afternoon temperature
projections.

A typical summer day is not complete without the threat of late
afternoon or evening thunderstorms... And this will certainly not be
an exception. The very warm and somewhat humid airmass (tds near 60
and pwat values approaching 1.5") will not only support mlcape
values over 1000 j/kg... But will have bulk shear values as high as
40 kts. This environment will be lying in wait ahead of a cold front
that will move through the region between 00z and 06z. The nocturnal
timing of this FROPA will be one of the few limiting factors for
strong to severe convection for the bulk of the region... But as is
usually the case with warm season cold frontal passages in the lower
great lakes... The main threat could come with convection within a
pre frontal trough. Some of the guidance packages are picking up on
this subtle boundary... Which would likely cross the far western
counties between 21z and 03z... Several hours ahead of the actual
(and likely anticlimactic) cold front.

Twenty four hours ago... Guidance was suggesting a slower frontal
passage with a higher risk for training storms. While a strong
southerly flow will still keep this potential in place... A greater
concern may now be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts with
the initial round of convection. The latter has become more of a
threat because of an earlier frontal passage... Which will encourage
a possible pre-frontal trough to pass through at the time of maximum
diurnal instability. Will continue to highlight the concerns in the
hazardous weather outlook (hwo).

To summarize... Strong to possibly severe convection will likely
break out across the far western counties around 21z Thursday
afternoon in the vcnty of a pre frontal trough. This convection will
push east during the evening while gradually weakening as it makes
its way to the eastern lake ontario region near/just after midnight.

A second area of showers and possible weak thunderstorms will move
through the region about two hours after the initial line.

Conditions will improve from west to east after midnight with
moderately strong cold advection pushing our temperatures back
through the 50s.

As one would expect... In will be notably cooler in the wake of the
cold front on Friday. It is worth pointing out though that while it
will be cooler than the previous two days... Temperatures will still
be above normal. H85 temps will be in the high single digits for the
majority of the day... So afternoon temperatures should top out in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. The trend back towards normal temperatures
will be accompanied by the return of at least partial sunshine...

courtesy of a bubble of high pressure that will cross the region.

The next cold front will settle to the south across our forecast
area Friday night. Guidance is suggesting that moisture and general
forcing will be somewhat limited with the front... So will only use
low chc to cover the minimal opportunity for showers. In fact...

while there is agreement with the passage of a sfc front... Guidance
is split on whether there even be any hgt falls. As we push through
the weekend though... This front will return to the north and should
be much more active.

On Saturday... High pressure over the province of ontario will help
to push the cold front south across pennsylvania. There could be
enough of a baroclinic zone on its northern side to support chc pops
over the southern portions of our forecast area... Generally south of
a line from the hills of southern erie county and warsaw to the
heart of the finger lakes. In other words... The metro areas of buf-
roc and art should be rain-free but cloudy for Saturday.

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/
Time for a change in the pattern.

A hemispheric WV loop clearly depicts a robust shortwave rotating
around the base of an expansive aleutian low early this morning.

This feature will eject to the east this afternoon and is forecast
to make landfall along the british columbia coast Thursday evening
before diving into a persistent longwave trough over the western
half of the country. This will lead to significant cyclogenesis
across the southern plains during the course of the weekend... With a
deep 'cutter' low lifting north and eventually closing off in the
vicinity of the upper great lakes early next week. This will
encourage the base of the persistent longwave trough over the west
to become centered over the center of the continent... Setting the
stage for notably cooler air to make its way to the lower great
lakes. As is usually the case... The pattern change will be marked by
a round of very unsettled weather. More on that in a moment.

As we open this period on Sunday... The aforementioned 'cutter' low
will be in the process of lifting north across the plains states. A
burgeoning downstream ridge ahead of this storm system will help to
lift the old frontal boundary from Friday night back across our
region as a warm front. This could touch off some showers... But more
importantly... It will usher in another round of very mild weather.

This will be realized by highs that will mainly be in the 70s for
Sunday... Particularly across the southern tier where it is not out
of the question that some spots could reach 80. This would depend on
the speed of the warm front and the amount of clearing in its wake.

In any case... This will set the stage for a warm night with mins
across the western counties struggling to fall below 60.

The stacked low over the upper great lakes will swing its associated
cold front across our region on Monday. This will produce a round of
showers and thunderstorms... And again... Pending the timing of the
actual fropa... The mercury could re-visit the 70s.

Notably cooler weather can then be expected on Tuesday... As the
opening longwave trough will pass to our north. H85 temps will
settle into at least the lower single digits... And possibly below
zero c. This will translate into high temperatures Tuesday afternoon
that will be in the 50s... Which is actually below normal. A novelty.

A look further down the road suggests that temperatures may stay
near to below normal for much of the remainder of the week... As
general troughiness if preferred by the majority of the medium range
ensemble members of the GEFS and ecmwf. This agrees with the 8 to 14
day temp forecast from cpc... Which favors cooler than normal weather
for the first week or two of may.

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/
For the 12z tafs flight conditions will start MVFR/low endVFR
as a deck of stratus passes across the region, this from a
coastal low edging northward up the atlantic coastline. This
deck of MVFR CIGS will persist across most TAF sites through the
morning hours (lowest across kjhw) before drier air from the
west pushes eastward with an improving trend starting this
afternoon.

For tonight winds will veer to southeast to southerly, while
remaining light.VFR flight conditions will prevail through the
night. There may be a little ifr CIGS developing across interior so.

Tier, but at this point confidence for these low CIGS to expand
westward across jhw is too low to place in the tafs.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR during the day... With showers/thunderstorms and
attendant MVFR then becoming likely late Thursday and Thursday night.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
A light easterly wind will produce waves one to two feet on the
western waters of lake ontario this morning, before a weak bubble of
high pressure crosses the lake this afternoon and evening. Light and
variable winds this evening will become southeast to southerly
tonight and into tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Winds and waves
will continue to be well below small craft thresholds into Thursday
afternoon.

Behind a cold front Thursday night winds and waves will increase
some, but likely remain below SCA thresholds on the eastern great
lakes.

Climate
The last days of april will finish with above normal
temperatures, warm enough that it will send our climate sites
towards a top 10 warmest april on record. The degree of
anomalous warmth has been greater towards the west, where
climate site buffalo may reach the warmest april on record.

Below are the warmest aprils on record.

Buffalo
rank... ..Value (f)... .Year
1... ... ..51.3... ... ... 1921
2... ... ..51.1... ... ... 2010
3... ... ..51.0... ... ... 1955
4... ... ..50.9... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..50.8... ... ... 1878
current april average temperature through april 25th: 49.0f
rochester
rank... ..Value (f)... .Year
1... ... ..52.6... ... ... 1878
2... ... ..52.5... ... ... 1921
3... ... ..52.4... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..52.3... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..51.4... ... ... 1915
current april average temperature through april 25th: 49.9f
watertown
rank... ..Value (f)... .Year
1... ... ..49.1... ... ... 1987
2... ... ..48.7... ... ... 1955
3... ... ..48.7... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..48.3... ... ... 1968
5... ... ..48.2... ... ... 2008
current april average temperature through april 25th: 45.9f
temperature records for buffalo and rochester begin 1871, while
watertown's history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas
climate... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi44 min E 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 1008 hPa53°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi44 min 56°F 1008.5 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi44 min 54°F 1008.9 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi62 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi62 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 57°F 1008.6 hPa (+0.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi62 min ENE 5.1 G 8 47°F 1009.8 hPa (-0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 38 mi122 min N 1.9 G 3.9 42°F 42°F2 ft1009.1 hPa (-0.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi68 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F50°F87%1008.7 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi69 minE 410.00 miFair51°F46°F86%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE7NE8E7NE6SE9E7E8E8NE8E10E13E7SE12SE5E3NE4NE4NE4NE4E8E4NE4NE3
1 day agoE14NE10NE13NE11E12NE12NE14NE12--NE14NE15NE13NE13E12E14E10E10E7E7E6E6NE6E7E8
2 days agoS5SW9SW7SW9W10W12SW10SW8W9SW10SW8SW7SW6S6SW6S7CalmCalmSE6E3E4CalmN4NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.