Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:29PM Thursday October 18, 2018 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1020 Am Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers during the day.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 59 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201810182115;;371930 FZUS51 KBUF 181420 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1020 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 181426
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1026 am edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Northwest flow will continue this morning as lake effect rain and
snow showers come to an end. Temperatures will remain well below
normal today while breezy conditions continue. High pressure will
track south of western ny bringing mild weather to end the work week.

Near term through tonight
A mid-level trough will slowly move eastward across the
northeast while surface high pressure tracks across the ohio
valley today. Accordingly winds northwest winds will become
westerly and force any lake effect clouds east of both lakes.

The pressure gradient will tighten across the region this
afternoon and result in breezy conditions. Although the cold
pool aloft will exit with the mid- level trough, cool
temperatures will lag behind with highs only reaching the low to
mid 40s.

A broad mid-level ridge will extend into the eastern great lakes
tonight. There may be some lingering lake effect clouds and
sprinkles flurries early on, but this will fight warm air
advection overnight. Meanwhile, breezy conditions will persist
across the region. Temperatures will likely bottom out early this
evening especially for areas inland. Temperatures will then rise
in the latter part of the night. Lows will range from the mid
30s across inland areas to the mid to upper 40s across the lake
plains and near the lake shore.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Quiet weather starts off the short term period as high pressure
remains in firm control as it drifts eastward towards the mid-
atlantic coast. It will become windy Friday as a tightening pressure
gradient develops between the high to our south and low pressure
passing just south of hudson bay. Winds will be strongest across the
niagara frontier where winds will gust to 40 mph. Cloud cover will
be on the increase through the day, but temperatures should warm
well into the 50s, with even some lower 60s. Rain shower chances
will be on the increase Friday night into Saturday as a cold front
and associated mid level shortwave cross the area.

An amplified upper-level trough will dig across the bulk of the
eastern u.S. Saturday into Sunday behind the cold front and will aid
in bringing below normal temperatures as 850 mb temperatures fall to
near +2c Saturday morning, reaching -8c by Sunday morning. The surge
of cold air aloft will cap daytime temperatures Saturday in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the area, with a few mid 50s
possible. Cold air streaming across the warmer great lakes waters
will bring plenty of cloud cover throughout Saturday and will also
bring the likelihood for showers and lake enhanced rain graupel
showers.

The arrival of even colder air Saturday night and Sunday will
support widespread northwest flow lake effect showers. Model
soundings keep low level vertical temperatures profiles warm enough
for mainly rain early Saturday night, before profiles cool
sufficiently for a mix and then change over to snow, especially for
higher elevations. This will perhaps lead to a minor accumulation in
any steadier or more persistent snow showers.

Lake effect showers will linger through Sunday afternoon before
starting to taper back late in the day. High temperatures on Sunday
will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night winds at the surface will back in response to a
shortwave tracking across the northern great lakes. This will lift
any linger lake effect activity northward (primarily off lake
ontario) Sunday night. This lake activity will be enhanced as the
shortwave and its associated moisture passes Monday, with likely
lake effect synoptic showers east of lake ontario, while the
remainder of the region has chances for showers through the day.

Northwest flow behind the clipper low Tuesday will again set the
stage for lake effect off both lakes. As lake induced equilibrium
levels rise through the day bands of showers snow showers will be
possible to the south and southeast of the lakes.

High pressure will nose towards our region Wednesday, bringing drier
air across the eastern great lakes Wednesday that will end lake
effect precipitation.

Temperatures this period will remain below normal, with highs in the
mid 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 30s.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Northwest flow continues this morning andVFR conditions will
continue today. Winds will become w-sw by afternoon and
increase into the evening. A mid-level ridge will extend into
the eastern great lake through tonight andVFR conditions will
prevail. Breezy conditions will continue tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. Breezy.

Saturday... MVFR toVFR with rain showers likely. Breezy.

Sunday... MainlyVFR but MVFR ifr in lake effect rain and snow
showers southeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Monday...VFR with mixed rain and wet snow showers.

Marine
Northwest winds and waves will continue to weaken across the
waters into the afternoon. High pressure will move south of the
great lakes later today and tonight. A tight pressure gradient
will persist across the eastern great lakes and winds and waves
will stay elevated. Small craft advisories will continue through
Friday on the lower great lakes.

Westerly winds will support lingering small craft advisory
conditions on the lower great lakes into the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Hsk
near term... Hsk zaff
short term... Tma
long term... Thomas
aviation... Hsk zaff
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi37 min W 9.9 G 15 41°F 57°F1031.5 hPa (+0.0)17°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi37 min 41°F 1031.1 hPa (+0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi97 min W 9.7 G 14 41°F 60°F2 ft1032.1 hPa (+0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi37 min 41°F 1030.9 hPa (+0.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi37 min WNW 11 G 18 43°F 1030.5 hPa (-0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi37 min W 9.9 G 16 42°F 1032.3 hPa (+0.3)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 38 mi97 min W 12 G 14 42°F 58°F1 ft1031.9 hPa (+0.2)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi37 min W 16 G 22 42°F 1031.5 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Last
24hr
NW16
G23
W25
W19
G25
W19
G31
W20
G26
W19
G23
NW14
G19
W14
G17
NW15
G20
W13
G17
NW17
G21
W15
G19
W17
G21
W15
G21
W14
G20
W13
G16
W10
G14
NW9
W9
NW5
NW6
G9
W4
G7
W11
G15
W10
G15
1 day
ago
W18
SW24
G32
SW26
SW22
G29
SW24
G29
SW19
G29
SW18
G27
S22
G29
SW24
G31
SW23
G30
SW25
G34
SW25
G32
W23
G33
W26
G32
W23
G30
W17
W15
W18
G22
W13
G18
W10
G15
NW12
G20
NW17
G23
W20
G25
NW21
G30
2 days
ago
W22
G28
W22
G28
W21
G26
W19
G24
W23
W17
G22
W21
G28
W19
G27
W19
G28
W18
G23
W20
G26
W22
G27
W20
G25
W19
W17
G21
W14
G17
NW14
G18
W15
W13
G17
W13
G17
W17
W16
G20
W16
G22
W16
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi43 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F27°F60%1031.6 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi44 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast41°F26°F55%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
G25
NW16
G21
W19
G24
W12NW13
G21
W8W14
G27
W10W12W12
G20
W11W13
G21
W9W10NW11NW8W5W4W5NW5NW9SW6W9W8
1 day agoSW15S14
G21
SW22
G32
SW23
G28
SW20
G30
SW15
G27
SW17
G28
SW19
G25
SW16
G24
SW14SW12
G20
--W13W13W13
G21
W10W13
G20
W11
G20
W13W15W9
G15
W15
G21
W17
G24
W19
G26
2 days agoW13
G26
W15
G21
W16
G23
W15
G21
W15
G26
W16
G22
W19
G25
W20
G31
W16
G28
W12
G22
W10
G18
W10W12W11W11W10W9W9W8W10W12
G19
W12
G21
W11
G17
W15
G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.