Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:04 AM EDT (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 131 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 76 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201808190900;;880529 FZUS51 KBUF 190542 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-190900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 190218
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1018 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
Smoke from western wildfires will continue into Sunday morning.

Otherwise, cloudless skies and some fog is expected as high
pressure builds toward the region tonight. Highs pressure will
be in control of our weather Sunday and Monday with dry and less
humid weather along with seasonal temperatures.

Near term through Sunday
Tonight would have been a good night to stargaze as high pressure
and dry air move south across the eastern great lakes. Clouds have
been eroding and moving away from the forecast area and western and
north central ny are mostly cloud free however, smoke from
western wildfires have made for an overcast evening.

Although the smoke is difficult to see on GOES east tonight,
previous satellite trends, hrrr-smoke model fields and the 00z
kbuf sounding has it tracking southwestward between 8-13k feet.

The smoke may insulate the eastern great lakes some, possibly by a
degree or two with low temperatures in the upper 50s to low
60s. Light winds, no clouds and recent rain will produce fog
across the southern tier and finger lakes. Patchy fog is also
possible further north across the low lands.

Sunday looks dry as high pressure becomes centered over new
brunswick and ridges southwest across the lower great lakes. It will
be less humid with comfortable high temperatures in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

Short term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night and Monday the axis of surface-based ridging will
remain firmly draped across our region... While weak troughing aloft
will give way to gradually rebounding heights out ahead of the next
mid-level trough... Which will be in the process of pushing across
the nation's midsection. This should promote continued quiet and dry
weather throughout this initial 24 hour period. Skies will range
from mainly clear to partly cloudy Sunday night which in tandem with
light winds may allow for the formation of some southern tier valley
fog... Then will average out partly to mostly sunny on Monday.

Meanwhile temperatures will range a little bit above seasonal
normals... With lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday night
followed by highs mostly in the lower 80s on Monday. It will also
turn a little more humid... With surface dewpoints creeping up into
the lower to mid 60s.

The most active weather in the short term portion of the forecast
will then come within the ensuing 36 hours... When a broad upper
level trough digging southeastward across the great lakes will
capture and phase with a second mid upper level trough over the mid-
mississippi valley... With the resultant deepening longwave trough
axis sliding eastward across the great lakes and ohio valley. At the
surface... Increasing DCVA height falls on the eastern flank of the
newly phased longwave trough will spur the continued development
strengthening of low pressure that will track from missouri to the
central great lakes by Tuesday afternoon... Then on into southern
quebec by early Wednesday morning. As it does so... This system will
push its attendant warm front across our region between late Monday
night and Tuesday... Quickly followed by its trailing cold front
Tuesday night. The 12z 18 guidance suite remains in excellent
agreement that this will become an increasingly dynamic system as it
passes by to our northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night... With all of
the main operational models suggesting that the low will deepen to
at least below 1000 mb during this time frame... Which would most
definitely be an anomalously strong system for this time of year.

Plentiful synoptic forcing and deepening moisture (pwats increasing
to around 2 inches) attendant to this strengthening system will
drive the development of increasingly widespread precipitation
through the course of Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Given what appear
to be only limited to modest levels of instability at this still
somewhat-distant vantage point... Much of the precipitation from this
system should come in the form of plain rain showers... Though some
embedded scattered thunderstorms will certainly be possible given
both increasing synoptic scale dynamics and the rather moisture-rich
environment.

At this point the main threat from this system still appears as if
it will come in the form of locally heavy rainfall and an attendant
marginal risk for flash flooding... Though with increasing wind
fields in place aloft... This would likely require repeated training
of stronger heavier cells to actually come to fruition. Secondary to
this... The increasing wind fields aloft bulk shear levels could also
bring about a risk for a few stronger to severe storms... Though at
this point this threat appears to be rather limited due to continued
unimpressive projections of available instability... Which is likely
a function of the fairly widespread cloud cover and precipitation
that should be in place out ahead of this system's cold front.

Following the passage of the trailing cold front... The arrival of
cooler and drier air will result in the steadier precipitation
steadily diminishing from west to east through the course of Tuesday
night. This said... On Wednesday diurnal heating... Residual low level
moisture and the passage of the main upper trough axis and attendant
cool pool core will still probably lead to the development of at
least a few more scattered showers isolated storms inland from the
lakes... With some orographically-driven enhancement possible
downwind of both lakes erie and ontario. Would expect the coverage
of any such convection to peak between the morning and early
afternoon hours... With dava... Subsidence... And drying in the wake of
the upper trough axis then resulting in this activity steadily
declining through the balance of the day.

One other thing that should be mentioned is that while this system
fits the climatological profile favorable for a round of stronger
winds across our region (i.E. A deepening system passing by to our
northwest)... In this case this does not appear likely as its
associated low level wind fields are not overly impressive... And
also veer rather quickly to the west and northwest. This said... We
can still expect a period of breezier conditions as this system
passes through our longitude Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

With respect to temperatures from Monday night onward... Solidly
above average lows (ranging from the lower 60s inland to the 65-70
range across the lake plains) Monday night will then gradually
settle back to average or a little below average through midweek...

with daytime highs retreating mainly back into the 70s on Tuesday
due to increasingly widespread cloud cover and precipitation... Then
to the lower to mid 70s on Wednesday as cooler and drier air
overspreads the region following the cold frontal passage. At the
same time... Initially uncomfortable humidity levels (dewpoints in
the 60s) Monday night and Tuesday will also fall back to much more
comfortable levels by Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
If there is one word that would best describe this period... It would
be comfortable. This should hold true despite the fact that
temperatures will actually climb to several degrees above normal by
the weekend... Particularly in regards to daytime highs. The reason
for the comfortable conditions will be that our dew points (measure
of moisture in the air) will largely be in the 50s rather than
the upper 60s to lower 70s... Which we have frequently persistently
experienced this summer.

Synoptically... This period will be dominated by a low amplitude
progressive flow along the canadian border with a suppressed sub
tropical ridge extending from texas to the southeast coast. The
latter will start to amplify across the southeastern states during
the course of the weekend into the following week (end of aug). This
should support an increase in heat and humidity as we close the
month. At the surface... There is no question that our controlling
weather feature during this period will be an area of high pressure
that will drift from the mississippi valley to the east coast.

Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

in the wake of a strong cold front Thursday night... The
aforementioned area of high pressure will move across the upper
great lakes and ohio valley. Strong cold advection in advance of
this large feature will establish ample instability over the warm
waters of lakes erie and ontario to support a minimal lake
response... But this will be seriously muted by a synoptically dry
airmass and relatively low cap. This should preclude any lake effect
showers... Although a field of strato-cu should develop southeast of
both lakes within a 310-320 flow. Otherwise... It will be a cooler
and much more comfortable night than the previous few. Temperatures
will settle well into the 50s throughout... And there's even the
chance for some isolated readings in the 40s for the chillier srn
tier valleys. The amount of lake cloud cover in that area will
ultimately decide that.

On Thursday... The large area of high pressure over the ohio valley
will push east across the lower great lakes. This will promote
beautiful weather over our area... As any lake derived clouds early
in the day should quickly succumb to Sun filled skies. H85 temps in
the vcnty of 10c will only support MAX temps in the mid to upper
70s... Which just happens to be right where we should be for this
time in august.

Ridging at all levels will slowly cross our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. This will allow for moonlit skies and relatively
cool weather Thursday night... With a greater chance for readings to
drop into the 40s for the southern tier valleys. Then a wealth of
sunshine and weak warm advection on Friday will push afternoon will
push the mercury back above 80 across the lake plains.

On Saturday... The large surface high will push off the new england
coast. This will firmly establish a warm advective pattern over our
region... With h85 temps climbing back into the mid teens c. While
dry weather is the most likely scenario for our region within this
pattern... There are some medium range ensembles that are suggesting
a warm frontal passage with a shower or two. Stay tuned.

Looking out at the end of the month into early september... There
is relatively high confidence that temperatures will average
above normal. This was briefly touched upon earlier in a
previous paragraph in this section that the sub tropical ridge
is expected to re-amplify over the southeastern states after
this forecast period. Medium range ensembles are in generally
good agreement with this solution. The climate prediction center
concurs with this temperature forecast as they strongly suggest
above normal temps throughout the lower great lakes in their 8
to 14 day temperature forecast.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr ceilings and visibility will continue into the evening hours
across the eastern great lake terminals. Although it is mostly
clear, went with a ovc250 deck as smoke is present across the
terminals tonight. The recent rainfall, calm to light winds, and
clearing will lead to areas of fog late tonight into Sunday morning
across the southern tier and north country including kjhw and kart.

Patchy fog is possible further north into the niagara frontier
including kbuf however coverage will be isolated to scattered at
best.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday and Thursday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Marine
Overcast skies due to western wildfire smoke is expected tonight and
into Sunday morning. Northeast winds will remain under 18 knots
though this evening, with wave heights remaining in the 2-4 foot
range. High pressure will continue to build towards the eastern
great lakes tonight and Sunday with fine boating conditions on the
lakes for the remainder of the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Hsk tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hsk tma
marine... Hsk tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi35 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 68°F 1015.9 hPa56°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi41 min 63°F 1015.2 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi65 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 75°F1014.8 hPa (-0.1)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi35 min 66°F 1015.5 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi65 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi65 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.0)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 38 mi65 min N 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 75°F1 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi65 min 7 G 11 71°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G8
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W6
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S14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F61°F90%1015.1 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F93%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E10NE10
G20
NE7NE8NE6NE7NE9N8NE11N8
G15
NE10NE6NE10N8NE9NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalm
1 day agoS8S7S12S8S9S9S12S12SW10SW9S7SW14SW15
G24
SW16SW15
G20
SW13SW13
G18
SW8SW8W7W4N6SW3S4
2 days agoS6S5S5S5S4S6S7SW9SW9SW10W6
G14
S11SW12SW9W6S9S8S9S10S10S6S6S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.