Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 131 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less. Occasional rain. Patchy fog late.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Occasional rain.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming west around 10 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. The water temperature off buffalo is 38 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201804250900;;461646 FZUS51 KBUF 250535 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-250900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250806
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
406 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
A large area of low pressure moving by to our south will bring
a period of widespread light rainfall to our region today... With
lingering showers then gradually tapering off from west to east
tonight and Thursday as high pressure and drier builds across
the lower great lakes.

Near term through tonight
A closed upper level low is located across the central appalachians
while a northern stream shortwave trough approaches the eastern
great lakes early this morning. These features which will eventually
phase together late tonight, will support the slow deepening of low
pressure across the mid-atlantic region today. Low pressure will
move northward along the east coast today and tonight.

Southerly flow aloft has tapped into atlantic moisture overnight and
widespread light rain has been moving from south to north, mainly
across western ny. Subsidence and a dry airmass helped keep the
north country mainly dry overnight. Light rain will move
across eastern lake ontario this morning.

The eastern great lakes will experience multiple rounds of light
rain today as the northern stream shortwave trough approaches the
region. Height falls will occur and a broad area of low pressure
will form and extend from the eastern great lakes southeast to
souther nj. This will cause warm air advection to cut off across
western ny from west to east as winds become westerly. There will
likely be brief periods of little to no rain during this time
however low-level profiles suggest saturation and therefore drizzle
will likely take its place. Temperatures will slowly climb if not
stay steady in the low to mid 50s today.

Upper level dynamics become enhanced this evening as the northern
stream shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted. Low pressure will
stretch into upstate ny and rain will become moderate from the roc
to the north country as it moves eastward tonight. Northwest winds
behind developing low pressure will move from west to east across
western ny and the north country into Thursday morning. Rainfall
amounts will range from a quarter of an inch across the southern
tier to three quarters of an inch across the north country. Low
temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
On Thursday a progressive mid level closed low will move from the
east end of lake ontario in the morning to new england by late
afternoon, with an associated surface low moving down the saint
lawrence valley. Showers will still be widespread east of lake
ontario through early afternoon in the deformation axis to the west
of the surface low. These showers will begin to taper off later in
the afternoon as the deeper moisture and forcing begin to move east
of the area. Farther to the west, a few morning showers across
western ny driven mainly by moist upslope flow will end by midday,
with some partial clearing developing in the afternoon from west to
east. Expect highs in the mid 50s across lower elevations and around
50 across higher terrain, even cooler east of lake ontario where
showers last much of the day.

The showers will end by early Thursday evening east of lake ontario.

Otherwise dry weather and clearing skies will prevail Thursday night
as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern great
lakes. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s in most locations.

By Friday there is some model spread still apparent in guidance with
the handling of a weak low moving northward along the east coast.

The GFS is farther west with this system, allowing showers to spread
into much of the region. The nam ECMWF gem are all farther east,
keeping most, if not all of the rain across eastern pa and eastern
ny. With the GFS being the outlier solution, have trended the
forecast away from the GFS solution with just low chance pops along
the eastern edge of the cwa.

By late afternoon another northern stream trough moving through the
central great lakes may spread a few showers in western ny. These
showers will develop across the rest of the area Friday night as the
trough sharpens and crosses the region from west to east.

It will be a little warmer Friday, with highs in the lower 60s at
lower elevations and mid to upper 50s on the hills. Increasing cold
advection will drop temperatures back into the mid to upper 30s for
lows by late Friday night, with lower 40s east of lake ontario.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Temperatures will return to well below normal this weekend as a deep
trough becomes established across the great lakes and new england.

The base of the trough and associated vorticity maxima will cross
the region Saturday with more showers. Chilly northwest flow will
support some upslope clouds and a few showers Saturday night
southeast of lake ontario, possibly lasting into early Sunday east
of lake ontario. It may even get cold enough for a few wet
snowflakes to mix in later Saturday night and Sunday morning,
especially across higher terrain. Highs both Saturday and Sunday
will only be in the upper 40s to around 50 in most locations, with
mid 40s on the hills. Lows will be in the 30s both mornings, with
some upper 20s possible in the colder southern tier valleys and tug
hill region if breaks in the clouds develop.

The cold will be temporary, with a strong warming trend developing
early next week. The trough will be forced to the canadian maritimes
by Monday, quickly being replaced by a strong southeast us ridge.

This ridge will pump strong height rises and warm advection into the
ohio valley and great lakes. Expect highs to be well into the 60s on
Monday, and well into the 70s on Tuesday away from lake influences.

Subsidence associated with the expansive eastern us ridge will keep
both days dry.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Light rain will continue across the terminals today and tonight. Low
level dry air has limited CIGS and vsbys from dropping quickly and
vfr conditions, with the exception of MVFR at kjhw will continue
this morning. Conditions will gradually deteriorate from southwest
to northeast today as occasional light rain moves across the
terminals. Low-level saturations will result in the development of
MVFR to ifr ceilings. Expect the worst (ifr) conditions to develop
across the higher terrain... With conditions lowering to MVFR across
the lower elevations.

Westerly flow will begin from west to east tonight and CIGS and
vsbys will slowly improve. Expect mainly MVFR with ifr across the
higher terrain kjhw and kart through early Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday... Improvement toVFR with showers ending.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain or snow showers east
of lake ontario.

Marine
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient will remain in place
across the lower great lakes today... As a large but poorly organized
storm system will pass by well to the south. This will keep
generally light winds and negligible waves in place.

This system will deepen tonight and winds will freshen into
Thursday. Westerly winds will produce sufficient waves and winds on
the southern and eastern shores of lake ontario for small craft
conditions into Thursday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Thursday for loz043.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 5 pm edt
Thursday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm edt
Thursday for loz044-045.

Synopsis... Hsk rsh
near term... Hsk
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Hsk
marine... Hsk rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi52 min NE 2.9 G 6 50°F 1013.1 hPa44°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi52 min 43°F 1013.2 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi52 min 49°F 1014.5 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi82 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 44°F 1014.2 hPa (-3.1)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi82 min NE 12 G 14 43°F 1013.6 hPa (-2.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi82 min Calm G 0 41°F 1015.9 hPa (-3.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi28 minENE 710.00 miLight Rain49°F48°F97%1013.5 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi29 minE 38.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F86%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW7SW6S8S12S10SW10S7S10S13SW14S9S5S4NE3NE4NE5E5E5E6E8E6E3E7
1 day agoE3E5SE6SE9SE7SE7SE5E9E13
G18
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SE83S8NE11NE3E4S6S8S8S9S8S8
2 days agoSE4S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4N3CalmNE9E8E7NE8NE6NE7NE5NE6E4E7E6SE6SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.