Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:59PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:10 AM EDT (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 958 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon...then becoming light and variable in the evening. Mostly Sunny becoming Sunny late in the morning becoming mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201805210815;;279048 FZUS63 KDTX 210158 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, will move over Lake Huron and persist into Monday. Weak low pressure will track along the southern Michigan border Monday night, with high pressure returning for the mid week period. LCZ460-210815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211410 aaa
afddtx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1010 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Update
As of 1010 am edt... Ongoing forecast continues to be on track, and
have made some tweaks to pops for today based on the latest trends in
hi-res guidance that slows onset, but a little more widespread in
coverage mid-late afternoon. Locally dense fog that occurred this
morning in the tri-cities region and portions of the thumb has all
but dissipated as morning heating continues. Cloud cover continues to
increase out ahead of a decaying MCS currently moving into lower
lake michigan. A few streamer showers east of this feature have
attempted to move into lower michigan, but stronger than anticipated
surface high pressure and associated low-level dry air will preclude
any of this precipitation from reaching the ground.

It will take the remainder of the morning hours to saturate the
column as the MCS approaches. Onset of showers now looks to be in the
2-4 pm timeframe west of us 23 i-75, and mid late afternoon across
the rest of southeast michigan. Surface-based instability will be
limited as lower michigan will reside on the northern side of low
pressure approaching from northern illinois indiana. There will be
some elevated instability moving in however and cannot rule out
embedded thunder. Where thunderstorms and heavier showers occur,
downpours will be possible with ponding of water on roadways and
possible poor drainage flooding.

Temperatures will only make it into the 60s early this afternoon,
then gradually fall towards evening into the upper 50s lower 60s with
thick cloud cover and rain-cooled air. Dewpoints rising into the 50s
will lead to abundant near surface moisture, and with easterly flow
advecting additional moisture off lakes erie, st. Clair, and
southern huron, have added patchy fog to the forecast for general
reduced visibilities late this afternoon and through the evening.

Continue to also closely monitor lakeshore flooding potential with
developing moderate easterly flow this afternoon and evening for the
shores of western lake erie.

Prev discussion
Issued at 647 am edt Mon may 21 2018
aviation...

the fog now impacting fnt and mbs is rather shallow and will erode
quickly following the TAF issuance (likely by 13z). An influx of
moisture from the southwest will allow rain to overspread the area
during the course of the afternoon. East southeasterly winds will
hold CIGS relatively high (above 6k) during the bulk of the
afternoon as the rain slowly advances across the area. During the
course of the evening, an influx of low level moisture combined with
the rain will support a steady lowering of CIGS to MVFR, with some
ifr possible overnight.

For dtw... The intensity of showers will increase during the late
afternoon and evening with additional moisture advection. Elevated
instability will increase during the night with an additional push
of low level moisture along a sfc low. So thunderstorms will be
possible at any time from late evening into the overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 this afternoon. High tonight.

* moderate in thunderstorms impacting the airport tonight.

Prev discussion...

issued at 300 am edt Mon may 21 2018
discussion...

a wet start to the week as two distant upper waves tracks through
lower michigan. The first wave will exit the midwest and reach
southern lake michigan by early evening, sending a good deal of
moisture into the state as 850 mb dew pts push toward 13 c (per 00z
nam), with low pressure tracking along the southern michigan border
this evening providing the focus for rainfall. Being on the north
side of the low, no surface based instability to speak off, but the
showalter index does go slightly negative (mainly along south of m-
59) with strong low level jet working through, so chance scattered
thunderstorms appear fine, which will only act to enhance rainfall.

Detroit will easily surge into the top 10 wettest may's on record,
as the climo site currently sits at 5.60 inches 11th place. Cool
start this morning, light easterly flow, coupled with clouds
thickening up and rain showers arriving later in the day should hold
high temps in the 60s.

Trailing upper wave over central plains to track through northern
lower michigan Tuesday morning, which may allow for a few more
showers, but mid level dry slot look to encompass much of the cwa
during the day, before low level convergence secondary cold front
slips south of the border. Pronounced upper level northwest
confluent flow Tuesday night will allow surface high (1020 mb) to
build over central great lakes. Could be enough surface near surface
moisture to support radiation fog.

Upper level ridge axis over the mississippi river valley will slide
east for the end of the work week, allowing for a significant warmup
(80s). However, the warm front lifting through could become active,
and derail the temperature climb if it gets hung up.

Upper level low trough coming out of the northern rockies looks to
be moving through the great lakes region over the weekend,
potentially bringing unsettled conditions with a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms, but the amount of moisture around will
need to be sorted out.

Marine...

high pressure will remain across lake huron today, generally
supporting light and variable winds. A frontal boundary located
across the ohio valley will lift north as a warm front into southern
michigan and lake erie tonight. Numerous waves of low pressure will
track along this front, crossing the southern lakes region tonight
and Tuesday. There will be an enhancement to the easterly winds on
lake erie today. At this point, winds and waves are expected to hold
below small craft conditions. The winds on lake erie will become
more variable tonight with the passage of the sfc low. There will
however be a developing northeasterly gradient on southern lake
huron tonight, which will persist into Tuesday, as low pressure
systems slide across the southern great lakes. At this point, the
gradient is not expected to be strong enough to warrant small craft
conditions. High pressure will expand back across the great lakes by
Wednesday, resulting in light winds.

Hydrology...

showers will overspread southeast michigan late this afternoon
and will be widespread this evening, tapering off overnight.

Rainfall totals around half an inch are expected across most
locations, but a few thunderstorms are also likely, especially south
of i-69, which will tend to enhance the rainfall, sending isolated
amounts around an inch, which could lead to poor drainage flooding of
low lying and urban areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Irl
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi70 min NNE 6 G 7 51°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.1)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi70 min E 6 G 7 54°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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NE15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi17 minESE 810.00 miFair61°F37°F41%1024 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi17 minENE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F32°F35%1023.7 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi15 minESE 810.00 miFair62°F39°F43%1023.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi15 minE 910.00 miFair63°F38°F41%1024 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N5N5N7NE34N6CalmE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4S3CalmNE6E4E3E9E10E8
1 day agoSW8SW8SW8W7SW6--NW14NW12W6NW7NW9NW8NW10NW11NW8N12N9N5NW3N7NW4N7N6N6
2 days agoE12E14
G19
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G20
E13--E12E12E10E10E9E9E6E10E8E7E7SE7SE6SE10S11S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.