Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:01PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:08 AM EDT (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 946 Pm Edt Thu Jul 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
LCZ460 Expires:201707280800;;936583 FZUS63 KDTX 280148 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 946 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A cold front will continue to sag slowly through the area this afternoon as low pressure lifts into Quebec. This front will stall over the Ohio Valley this evening as a second low near 29.80 inches moves in from the midwest. Once this low digs southeast on Friday, the cold front will continue south and a large high pressure system, 30.20 inches, will build into the central Great Lakes and remain in place through the upcoming weekend. LCZ460-280800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 281105
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
705 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Aviation
Cold core upper level low tracking through southeast michigan today,
but moisture is lacking, and probably struggling to generate
ceilings below 5000 feet, much less showers or thunderstorms. If an
isolate shower or thunderstorm were to develop, would probably be in
the vicinity of the southern TAF sites, but mention will be left out
of TAF forecast. Northeast winds around 15 knots are expected during
the day, decreasing to around 5 knots tonight under clear skies.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5kft today.

* very low for thunderstorm this afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 am edt Fri jul 28 2017
discussion...

a cooler and drier environment now entrenched across southeast
michigan, this transition sustained via persistent low level
northeast flow immediately downstream of building high pressure.

Strong mid level circulation remains forecast to rapidly transit the
region during the daylight period. The underlying DCVA and cold
pool dynamics tied to this system will present at least a low
probability for convective development, particularly with
southeastward extent. However, the high degree of deep layer drying
certainly casts doubt on the prospects of seeing a greater response.

Recent hi-res guidance suggest the greater potential will reside
just to the south and east, where some localized convergence may
capitalize on a weakly unstable late day environment - MLCAPE below
500 j kg. Ultimately, looking at a limited window for possible low
end coverage during the early-mid afternoon period, before renewed
mid level drying overwhelms a marginally moist cloud layer.

Afternoon temperatures will arrive on the cooler side of average,
with readings broadly distributed across the 70s - coolest in the
thumb given the onshore flow.

High pressure will remain anchored over the northern great lakes
throughout the upcoming weekend. The presence of deep layer
subsidence and persistent north to northeast low level flow ensures
dry and stable conditions will hold throughout the period. Plenty
of sunshine and lower humidity will yield pleasant summertime
conditions for the last weekend in july.

Sprawling high pressure will remain tucked beneath low amplitude and
loosely organized upper level northwest flow during the early next
week. Gradual airmass modification under slowly building heights
will bring highs back into the lower and middle 80s during this
time. Dry conditions will hold, reinforced by transient shortwave
ridging through Tuesday. As height falls begin to carve out a
broader longwave trough across southern canada, this may allow a
frontal boundary to ease into the region by Wednesday Thursday. Next
shot for rainfall during this time.

Marine...

moderate northeast flow between 20 to 25 knots will develop over the
nearshore waters today, and small craft advisories remain in effect,
as significant wave heights up to five feet and maximum wave heights
near seven feet are expected over the southern lake huron basin.

Northeast winds will be lighter tomorrow, and very light on Sunday
as high pressure settles overhead.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz049-055-063-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight edt tonight for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am edt Saturday for
lez444.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi68 min NNE 15 G 16 68°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi68 min ENE 18 G 20 68°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi75 minNNE 1010.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1015 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi75 minNNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F61°F93%1013.8 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi74 minNE 410.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1014.9 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi73 minNNE 610.00 miFair62°F59°F93%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N8NE9NE9N5N6NE4NE11NE10NE11E8E7NE8NE7NE8NE6NE4NE5NE4N3N4N7NE10NE13
G18
1 day agoS7S5SW10S12S9SW9W853SW3SW3S6SW4SW3S3S9SW4SW3CalmCalmS3S4CalmNW4
2 days agoE3CalmNE7NE5SE6CalmCalmE3N43S5S3SE4SE7S4S5SW3S3S5S3SW3SW4S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.