Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:29PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 335 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with numerous light snow showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight...then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly Sunny in the late morning and afternoon becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201801170915;;549475 FZUS63 KDTX 162035 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure, 30.40 inches, will push eastward across the Great Lakes Region through today. High pressure then moves in beginning Wednesday and holds heading into the weekend. LCZ460-170915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 162347
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
647 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Aviation
Elongated ribbon of potential vorticity will settle directly over
southeastern michigan now through the first few hours of the taf
period. Center of lake aggregate troughing and center of surface low
pressure over southern lake huron basin will be extremely sensitive
to the MAX in convergence within narrowing and shearing trough axis.

Already seeing signs of the demise for very weak ascent over lower
michigan with loss in coverage of light snow activity and rising of
stratocumulus cigs. This trend should continue for the next few
hours before accelerating with drier working in below 6 kft agl. For
this round of tafs will hang onto pessimistic clouds and will
reevaluate observational data this evening, amending as needed.

Still expecting lake michigan plume to advect across and will need to
account for that sky fraction. Main forecast item for Wednesday will
be developing, gusty west winds 15 to 25 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cig AOB 5kft tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 314 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
discussion...

the sfc low which has been nearly stationary over the southern basin
of lake huron through the first half of the day will be exiting into
ontario late this afternoon evening, dragging an associated sfc
trough axis south across the forecast area. As of 19z, the region of
enhanced convergence extends from the thumb region into the southern
saginaw valley. Northeasterly low level flow from central lake huron
has been feeding lake moisture into this region of convergence. This
along with steepening low level lapse rates has led to brief
intervals of one inch per hour snowfall rates. The higher intensity
snow showers will work south this afternoon evening with the
southward advancing trough convergence axis. The convergence is
expected to weaken during the evening as the trough pushes into
metro detroit. This suggests both a lower coverage of snow showers
with weaker intensity across the SRN portions of the forecast area
this evening. The brevity of forcing still suggests accums of an
inch or less. A little stronger convergence and better lake moisture
will however support locally higher accums across the thumb region,
possibly two or three inches.

Mid level subsidence will take hold overnight as the elongated mid
level trough axis departs to the eastern great lakes. Subtle surface
ridging nudging in behind the departing trough may allow some breaks
in the clouds, supporting min temps down into the upper single
digits above zero. Mid level heights will then build across lower mi
on Wednesday. The low level flow will back to the west-southwest
overnight into Wed morning. While subsidence will lower inversion
heights, expect a release of remnant lake effect off lake michigan,
resulting in periodic strato CU and possible flurries across the
forecast area on Wednesday. While low level warm air advection will
nudge Wed daytime highs into the 20s, gusty southwest winds hold
wind chill readings in the single digits.

There is reasonably good agreement among the 12z model guidance in
showing a compact mid level wave traversing the northern great lakes
on Thursday. This system will be moisture starved. Lake enhancement
will also largely be confined to the northern great lakes as warm air
advection nudges 850mb temps toward +2 c over SRN mi. So a dry
forecast will be maintain with the low level warming nudging daytime
highs into the low 30s.

A dampening upper level ridge will move overhead on Friday as high
pressure over the southeast us allows return southwesterly flow to
continue streaming milder air into the region. This will bring dry,
"milder" conditions for Friday as highs reach the upper 30s. An
upper level trough pivoting through the southwest us on Saturday
will induce lee cyclogenesis over the central plains over the
weekend. Ahead of this developing low pressure system, southerly
flow will increase through the weekend allowing temperatures to rise
further into the 40s along with moisture both Saturday and Sunday.

The uptick in moisture will bring increasing clouds and showers late
Saturday into Sunday. Model guidance then continues to track the
central plains low pressure system west of lower michigan on Monday.

This scenario would keep southeast michigan in the warm sector with
a period of rain while temperatures remain above freezing late
Sunday into Monday.

Marine...

strong and unstable southwest flow will develop as high pressure
shifts south of the area on Wednesday. Gusts to marginal gales are
probable over most lake huron, including saginaw bay and the
northern nearshore waters of the thumb. Gusts to strong gales are
anticipated over the central open waters. Gale warnings are in
effect for the entire central corridor of the lake... Including outer
saginaw bay. Episodes of fresh to strong southwest flow will be
common for the remainder of the week while gust potential diminishes
owing to increasingly warm stable fetch.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am to 10 pm est Wednesday for lhz362-363-421-
441-462.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sc jd
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi85 min SW 7 G 11 14°F 1030.5 hPa (+1.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi85 min N 11 G 11 17°F 1029.5 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
SE3
S2
W2
W4
W4
W6
W5
W4
SW5
W3
W4
NW2
NW3
W3
W3
W4
G8
W5
G9
NW5
W2
W5
G8
W6
G9
W6
W7
G10
W7
1 day
ago
S10
G13
S10
G15
S10
G14
S7
G11
S10
G13
S8
G12
SE9
G12
S9
G12
S8
G11
SE10
SE13
G18
SE11
G14
S10
G14
SE14
G17
S16
SE13
G17
S11
G16
SE9
G14
SE12
G16
SE10
G13
SE5
G9
SE4
G7
SE4
SE3
2 days
ago
W5
W7
W5
W6
W7
W7
W7
W6
W7
W6
W8
W7
SW4
SW6
SW6
G9
SW8
G15
SW6
G13
SW9
G13
SW11
S8
G12
S11
G14
S11
G16
S13
G18
S13
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi32 minWSW 54.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist13°F10°F88%1031.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi32 minW 95.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist11°F8°F88%1031 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi30 minWSW 67.00 miFair7°F5°F91%1029.8 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi30 minW 57.00 miOvercast14°F10°F85%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmS3CalmNW5NW4W4SW7SW7W8W10W8W8W8W5W7W5
1 day agoS6S10S12S11
G20
S11SE13SE11SE12SE10SE11SE7SE8SE9SE9SE9SE12E11E12E8E8E7E7E7E7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6SW10SW8SW7S10S10S11S10S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.