Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 337 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through this evening - .
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 201416 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1016 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
It will be cooler and breezy today, with a chance for rain showers during the afternoon hours. Some snow or graupel may even mix in. A much welcomed dry stretch of weather will occur Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
930 am update...

Increased cloud cover especially east of Binghamton and Wilkes- Barre. Satellite is showing breaks developing over the rest of the area. Some sunshine midday before a cold front with limited moisture drops southeast into the area with some rain showers.
Few changes with the forecast in good shape for the rest of today.

645 AM Update...

Clouds, and especially low level clouds across NEPA have stuck around longer than expected early this morning. This kept temperatures this morning from falling as far as originally thought, bottoming out in the mid 40s across much of the region.
Radar returns over the region continue to be virga thanks to dry air in the lower atmosphere.

200 AM Update...

Some radar returns are showing up across the area, but a very dry layer of air in the lower atmosphere is keeping any precipitation from reaching the ground. Mist and low clouds remain across the Catskills and Poconos, but should exit to the east in the next couple hours. Temps tonight are currently in the upper 40s and are expected to fall into the low 40s as drier and cooler air moves in from the west.

The morning will be quiet with mostly clear skies. A trough will slide across eastern Canada, with the southern edge of it clipping our CWA Vorticity advection over the region combined with steep low level lapse rates associated with the trough and clear skies allowing surface instability to form should develop scattered rain showers during the early afternoon across the Finger Lakes, moving east as the day progresses. Modeled soundings show a slight chance for some graupel mixing in with these rain showers, especially across higher elevations, later in the afternoon as colder air moves in while low level instability remains. Winds will pick up in the afternoon as isobars pile up ahead of the approaching cold front. WNW winds 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph will be possible, especially across higher elevations. Showers are expected to dissipate during the early evening hours as we loose daytime heating.
Temps will climb into the low 50s by late morning/early afternoon, falling into the mid to upper 40s during the afternoon as cold air filters in from the NW.

High pressure builds into the region during the evening hours.
The center of the high will be south of the CWA, putting our region in NW flow and continued cool air advection. Temps overnight will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

High pressure remains over the region on Sunday, keeping conditions quiet. The cold air mass remains with continued WNW flow so temps will only climb into the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 AM Update...

The short term is looking quiet overall as a low amplitude trough slowly moves off to the east Sunday night into Monday.
Zonal flow with 850 mb temperatures a little below climatology will make for seasonable temperatures with mostly sunny skies.
Day time temperatures will rise into the 50s to low 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Did end up blending in a little bit of the NBM 90th for high temperatures as forecast soundings show dew points pretty low and models tend to under forecast day time temperatures on drier days. Dew points were also lowered for the afternoons as forecast soundings have very dry air above the mixed layer and with deeper mixing likely, some of that drier air will make its way to the surface.

Tuesday night there will be a fairly sharp, neutrally tilted 500 mb shortwave dipping into the Great Lakes region that will bring a chance of rain showers overnight into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures were bumped up from the NBM as forecast models have pretty good warm air advection through the overnight hours with plenty of low level moisture as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
310 AM Update

The long term is also looking quiet overall with the best chance for any precipitation being at the beginning on Wednesday into Thursday. With good agreement in deterministic and ensembles in timing of the 500 mb shortwave moving through Wednesday, precipitation chances were kept high Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Thursday into Friday is a little more uncertain as the GFS is trying to phase a northern shortwave with the departing 500 mb shortwave with a potent cold snap moving in. In this solution the 500 mb heights fall to near 520 dm and 850 mb temperatures below -10C which would support lake effect snow. The GEFS ensembles are also picking up on the phase in the overnight runs. The ECMWF and EPS are not pointing at that solution at all keeping the waves separate with a more progressive pattern. As of now, given the complexity of the wave phase and lower performance of the GFS and GEFS with some of these phases this spring, decided to lean more towards the ECMWF and EPS and keeping chances of precipitation lower Thursday into Friday as well as a little bit warmer with temperatures.

Late week into next weekend, there is better ensemble agreement of a western US trough which would increase the chances of east coast ridging and SW flow. Temperatures should moderate with some increasing chances of precipitation into next weekend as we get warmer and more moist flow.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR conditions have lingered much longer at AVP than guidance suggested tonight. Conditions here should lift to VFR by mid morning and remain VFR through the period.

VFR conditons expected at all other terminals through the TAF period. Some scattered rain showers are expected to develop across the area during the afternoon, but should not introduce any restrictions. Winds will pick up this afternoon, with 10-15kts sustained, gusting to 25kts out of the WNW expected.
Winds should lighten up in the evening.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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