Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:40PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:51 AM EST (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 138 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 11 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711191030;;632142 FZUS51 KBUF 190638 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-191030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva, NY
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location: 42.86, -76.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 190837
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
337 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will blast through the area this morning,
producing gusty winds and falling temperatures today. Lingering
scattered rain showers will change over to snow showers. Lake
effect snow will develop late today and last into Monday. Snow
may be heavy at times in parts of north central new york, with
at least scattered snow showers and flurries elsewhere.

Near term through tonight
335 am update...

main concerns center around gusty winds today, and development
of accumulating lake effect snow late afternoon through tonight.

Squally snow showers will be possible late afternoon into
evening well outside of the main lake effect bands.

Cold front is just reaching the finger lakes region and will
quickly sweep across the remainder of northeast pa-central ny
by dawn. An abrupt west-northwest wind shift can be expected as
the front passes, and upstream right now observations indicate
widespread 25-35 knot gusts. This will carry over into our
region mid morning through mid afternoon, as the responsible
deep low pressure center tracks through northern new york to the
far northern tip of maine. Tight pressure gradient behind that
low, with deep mixing courtesy of steep lapse rates through at
least 800mb, will ensure that we get 35-45 mph peak gusts across
the whole general area. Our highest elevation locations could
get gusts to near 50 mph. This will be enough to cause scattered
power outages.

Sharp negatively tilting upper trough lags just slightly behind
the surface front, which will keep showers going a few more
hours. Moisture behind the upper wave will become quite shallow
however, though convective overturning of the boundary layer
should still result in at least scattered showers, especially
for central new york. Those lingering showers will change from
rain to snow, first at higher elevations. Snow accumulations
during the daytime hours will be nominal.

However, a more significant punch of cold air advection will
occur with a secondary shortwave set to arrive early evening.

This will be what sends 850mb temperatures to colder than minus
10 deg celsius, and also will really gin up lake effect since
much of the unstable layer will include the dendritic growth
zone (where temperatures are minus 12 to 18 deg celsius, the
maximum growth zone for ice crystals). When accounting for
lake-induced convective available potential energy (cape),
model soundings suggest equilibrium levels all the way to just
above 700mb or about 10 kft. The most obvious area of concern
will be onondaga-madison-oneida counties with 300 degree mean
flow promoting a main lake effect band off of lake ontario.

However, erie will likely send at least extensions of bands
across the southern finger lakes-twin tiers this evening, and
they could be quite squally. So across a large chunk of our
area, anyone traveling late afternoon into tonight should be
wary the potential for getting very sudden localized bursts of
snow with quick slick coatings on roadways and briefly low
visibilities.

Multiple ripples travel through the flow overnight, and while
lake-to-lake connection may briefly get established, overall it
appears that lake effect band or bands will tend to oscillate.

Under the most intense portions, 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall
rates are possible along with considerable blowing snow, yet
with the movement the overall totals may not be overwhelming. We
are still carrying a winter storm watch for lake effect snow in
onondaga-madison- oneida counties where potential is highest.

About 2 to 6 inches will be possible there through tonight, with
additional snow persisting into Monday (so localized totals
could be as high as 8 to 10 inches). Monday morning rush hour
may be quite negatively impacted across the watch area since
just prior to then is when the highest rates may occur. 1 to 2
inches are also possible in steuben county and perhaps in narrow
stripes further east-southeast, due to extensions of lake erie
activity. Low temperatures tonight will be mainly 20s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
330 am update... Lake effect snow will be ongoing into Monday
morning across northern counties from around the i-90 corridor
and points north as a cold wnw flow continues near 280 degrees.

A final piece of upper level energy will come through in the 12
to 18z time frame in association with the upstream portion of
the upper level trough as it departs the area. This will have
the effect of adding some wind shear and shifting winds in the
boundary layer which could cause some disruption to bands.

Overall trend though will be for les band to shift north with
time. By afternoon, band should be confined to northern oneida
county and weakening with time as upper trough departs and low
level ridge moves in. Outside of this main area of lake effect,
there will also be the chance for some scattered lake effect
snow showers and flurries over the southern tier during the day
due to bands from lake erie. Winds will remain brisk with highs
in the 30s.

For Monday night, lake effect ends all together as flow shifts
to SW ahead of a low moving across northern ontario. This sw
flow will result in a milder day Tuesday with plenty of
sunshine. Highs rebound to the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the gfs, euro and cmc all
show chilly air in place and a westerly low-level flow. Hence we
have just a few lake effect scattered snow showers in our
northern areas and mainly flurries south. For Wednesday night
and Thursday, high pressure dominates and it will be mainly dry
and chilly. Friday will see a few snow showers or flurries in
our northern counties as some warm air advection kicks in. Used
superblend and also blended with surrounding wfos.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
06z update...

low pressure system is causing showers and deteriorating
conditions early this morning. Low level wind shear is also
present in the predawn hours, due to a south-southwest jet of
35-45 knots ahead of approaching front. The strong cold front
will blast through the region early this morning 07z-11z with
fuel alternate to ifr conditions. The front will be accompanied
by a quick shift of gusty wind out the southwest to west,
eventually settling on west-northwest later today. Sustained
15-20 knots, with gusts of 28-36 knots, will be common late
morning through afternoon before diminishing a bit in the
evening. Though restriction improvements will occur in a general
sense late morning onward, there will also be lake effect snow
showers developing which could cause degradations. This will be
most likely ksyr-krme this evening, where restrictions of at
least ifr may be fairly persistent due to lake effect snow and
blowing snow. Directly under snow bands, conditions may get
below alternate minimums at times. We will also have to watch
for pieces of the lake erie band reaching towards kelm late
afternoon and perhaps kbgm-kith this evening.

Outlook...

late Sunday night through Monday... Lake effect snow with ifr-
or-worse vis restrictions for ksyr-krme through midday Monday,
lifting north after that. MainlyVFR elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Restrictions possible
in scattered rain snow showers.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for paz038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.

Ny... Wind advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for nyz009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Monday evening
for nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Pcf
long term... Djn
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 43 mi51 min NW 26 G 35 42°F 986.1 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY15 mi58 minSSW 106.00 miLight Rain48°F43°F83%984.1 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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6W75W54CalmCalmE6SE4CalmSE5S6SW5S8S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.