Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 9:00PM Saturday June 23, 2018 1:58 PM EDT (17:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 129 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
This afternoon..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely early, then scattered showers late.
Tonight..West winds less than 10 knots. Scattered showers. Patchy fog overnight.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. Showers likely in the morning, then showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 knots or less. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers overnight.
Monday..North winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 65 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201806232115;;994556 FZUS51 KBUF 231729 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-232115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231731
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
131 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move slowly across the region through tonight,
with a cold front then moving slowly south across the area Sunday
and Sunday night. This will continue to support occasional showers
and scattered thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend, with
some rain free periods as well. High pressure will build into the
eastern great lakes and new england Monday and Tuesday, bringing a
return to dry weather.

Near term through Sunday night
Radar imagery showing mainly light rain early this afternoon from
the niagara frontier eastward across the south shore of lake ontario
to the eastern lake ontario region. This area of light rain will
continue to move northeast and mainly into canada and eastern ny
through the rest of the afternoon. Our attention then turns to
developing convection over NE ohio and NW pa. This convection is
supported by organized ascent and convergence ahead of a well
defined mid level circulation noted in water vapor imagery, and and
associated surface low. This feature will move ene and into western
ny through the rest of the afternoon and evening.

Latest high-resolution convective allowing mesoscale model guidance
supports an organized area of showers moving from the western
southern tier at mid afternoon across the genesee valley and western
finger lakes late afternoon, reaching areas southeast of lake
ontario by early evening. Modest instability developing near breaks
in the dense overcast will continue to support embedded scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. Pwat values around 1.5 inches
are high but not excessive. The closed upper low will be in the
process of opening up and remains progressive, which should keep
storms moving enough to mitigate, but not completely eliminate a
flash flood risk. If storms train or begin to backbuild in the
environment dominated by relatively weak flow and small corfidi
propagation vectors, locally heavy rain will be a concern from the
western southern tier to the western finger lakes and points
southeast of lake ontario. This risk will continue to be mentioned
in the hwo, but the risk does not appear organized enough to
consider a flash flood watch.

Overnight the de-amplifying mid level trough will move into western
new england, leaving little in the way of forcing across our region.

An east-west oriented mid level frontal zone and abundant moisture
will remain in place, with the chance of one or two meso-beta scale
convectively generated perturbations supporting the possibility of a
few brief showers. Otherwise, much of the time should be rain free
through the middle of the night. Expect lows in the low to mid 60s
in most areas.

Sunday another mid level trough over the central great lakes will
approach western ny during the afternoon. Increasing large scale
ascent in the dpva region ahead of the trough, and some limited
diurnal instability will support a gradual increase in showers and
scattered thunderstorms during the day. The initial development in
the morning will likely focus on a few subtle wind shift boundaries
forecast to drift across western ny, with coverage improving and
moving east through the afternoon with the arrival of better large
scale support. Pwat values are high but not excessive, at around 1.5
inches. Flow from the boundary layer through the mid levels is
fairly weak, with short corfidi propagation vectors and deep
moisture suggesting the potential for slow moving heavy rain
producing storms where convection develops. That said, the flash
flood risk does not appear organized enough to justify a watch at
this time.

The mid level trough axis and first cold frontal segment will move
southeast across the area Sunday evening, with fairly widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms initially. A heavy rain risk
will last into the evening before the boundary layer begins to
stabilize and better forcing moves east of the area. Overnight the
rain will end from north to south with the passage of the cold
front. A secondary cold front will cross the area late Sunday night
and early Monday morning, with a re-enforcing push of cooler and
drier air. Lows will drop into the mid 50s in most areas by daybreak
Monday, with some lower 50s across the north country.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
Canadian high pressure will transit the forecast area Monday and
Tuesday bringing a return to fair weather with continued comfortable
temperatures and low humidity. By Wednesday and Wednesday night, a
potent wave will cross the great lakes bringing our next chance for
showers and thunderstorms, along with increasingly warm and humid
conditions.

Monday and Monday night will remain on the cool side of normal with
the high to our north feeding in a cool, dry airmass. Highs will top
out in the low to mid 70s with abundant sunshine and dew points in
the 40s will make for quite low humidity. Monday night will be cool
and crisp under excellent radiational cooling conditions as the
surface high crests overhead. Inland locations across the southern
tier and eastern lake ontario region will see overnight lows solidly
in the 40s, while the lake plains remain a bit milder in the low to
mid 50s.

Temperatures and moisture will start to rebound on Tuesday as return
flow develops with the surface high moving off the east coast.

Temperatures and moisture will return to more typical june levels
with highs around the 80 degree mark and dew points back into the
50s. Mostly sunny skies early will become increasingly obscured by
thickening high clouds late in the day Tuesday ahead of the next
approaching weather system.

Wednesday and Wednesday night a robust wave will move through the
central great lakes while pushing a cold front across the area.

Several rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms will move
across the region. Severe thunderstorm potential will be non-zero
during this time period, conditional on the timing of the wave and
how much destabilization occurs Wednesday. The temperature forecast
is a bit tricky given the likely ubiquitous cloud cover and
potential for a couple of rounds of showers. Thus while 850 mb
temperatures push +16 to +18c, have remained a bit conservative with
highs in the mid 80s for the lake plains and low 80s over the higher
terrain. Dew points will also soar into the mid to upper 60s making
for much muggier conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
then diminish from west to east Wednesday night with continued warm
and muggy conditions overnight.

Long term Thursday through Friday
Thursday and Friday zonal flow will develop from the great
lakes to new england on the northern edge of a strong ridge over
the central and southern united states. Latest 12z GFS and
ecmwf don't have any significant synoptic scale features during
this time frame, but several weak mid level shortwaves and a
stalled east west frontal boundary within a moist boundary layer
with dewpoints in the lower 60s may support a few isolated to
widely scattered showers or a thunderstorm at times.

Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with highs in the
80s Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid to upper 60s, along
with moderate humidity.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Wednesday moisture will continue to stream northward across the
region, with pwats climbing to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. There will be the
uncertainty of morning clouds showers that may limit the afternoon
heating. Models are suggestion that there will be enough
moisture clouds through the morning to slow cooling with highs
peaking in the low to mid 80s across the region. This heating,
combined with dewpoints in the low mid 60s generating SBCAPE values
of 1000 j kg and the passage of an upper level shortwave will
combine to bring high confidence in showers and thunderstorms
forming through the afternoon and evening hours. A 35 to 40 knot llj
could blossom some strong to severe storms... And will mention this
possibility in the hwo for now.

Wednesday night a cold front will sweep across the region early in
the night, sending any lingering rain showers eastward. There will
be no canadian high pressure following this front... And temperatures
will remain warm through the night with moderate levels of humidity.

Thursday and Friday zonal flow will develop from the great lakes to
new england on the northern edge of a strong ridge over the central
and southern united states. Latest 12z GFS and ECMWF don't have any
significant synoptic scale features during this time frame, but
several weak mid level shortwaves and a stalled east west frontal
boundary within a moist boundary layer with dewpoints in the lower
60s may support a few isolated to widely scattered showers or a
thunderstorm at times.

Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with highs in the
80s Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid to upper 60s, along
with moderate humidity.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Low pressure and an associated mid level trough will cross the area
from west to east this afternoon and evening, supporting areas of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. The most concentrated area of
rain will likely move from the western southern tier this afternoon
into the genesee valley and western finger lakes by late afternoon,
before reaching central ny and the eastern lake ontario region this
evening. Outside of the rain, lower elevations will generally beVFR
with a mix of MVFR and ifr CIGS across higher terrain. Any of the
heavier showers will produce brief local MVFR to ifr conditions.

The more persistent rain will move to the eastern lake ontario
region this evening, then taper off overnight. This will leave
plenty of rain free time, although an east-west mid level frontal
zone and plenty of moisture may support a few isolated showers
overnight. Abundant low level moisture and weak surface convergence
will likely support widespread ifr CIGS overnight through the first
half of Sunday, with some patchy fog developing as well.

Sunday another mid level trough will cross the region, with a cold
front arriving by Sunday evening. This will support increasing
coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms through the day,
first across western ny and then spreading east across the rest of
the region through the afternoon. Any heavier showers will produce
local MVFR to ifr conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday night... Showers and scattered thunderstorms ending. MVFR ifr
improving toVFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... Local brief MVFR to ifr showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Low pressure will move northeast across lake erie this afternoon
before weakening and crossing lake ontario this evening. East winds
will produce choppy conditions at the west end of lake ontario
through this evening, although winds and waves are now expected to
remain below small craft advisory criteria.

A weak cold front will move south across the eastern great lakes
Sunday, with a secondary cold front moving south across the area
late Sunday night. North winds in the wake of these two cold fronts
will produce choppy conditions at times along the south shore of
lakes erie and ontario, but winds and waves are expected to remain
below small craft advisory criteria.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Church
long term... Thomas
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi59 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 65°F1006.5 hPa (-0.9)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi59 min WNW 4.1 G 7 64°F 1007.1 hPa (-0.7)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi59 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 1006.7 hPa (-1.2)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi119 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 57°F1 ft1007.2 hPa (-0.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi59 min E 9.9 G 11 53°F 1008.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi66 minSW 49.00 miLight Rain70°F62°F76%1006.8 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi65 minWSW 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F63°F87%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7NE9E10NE8NE5S7S5SE10E5E8E8SE7SE7SE10E6E7E6E5SE5SE3S4SW3SW7
1 day agoNE12
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G18
NE12NE12NE11NE10E7E6E7E7E6E6E7E4E6NE7E7NE8NE8NE10NE9NE12E7
2 days agoE3W3W4SW64S6SW6SW5SW4W3CalmCalmS3S3S4CalmE3NE3NE14
G19
NE14NE12NE12N12NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.