Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:30PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:28 AM EDT (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 431 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers early. A chance of showers from late morning on.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely Friday night.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Saturday night.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. The water temperature off buffalo is 62 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201810171500;;311944 FZUS51 KBUF 170837 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-171500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170844
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
444 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
Lake effect rain showers will continue this morning as a cold front
tracks across western and north-central ny. Cold air behind the
frontal passage will make it cold enough for some wet snow across
higher elevations late tonight. Lake effect showers are then
again expected Thursday with cool temperatures. Temperatures
will return back toward normal Friday with mainly dry weather.

Near term through tonight
Radar depicts lake effect rain showers extending from the lake
erie shoreline into the southtowns to east of lake ontario
early this morning. Temperatures range from the low 50s near the
lakes to the upper 30s for locations inland. Breezy, southwest
winds and showers will continue for some locations through the
morning commute.

A cold front is located across the lower ontario province and will
continue to approach western and north-central ny this morning.

A surface ridge axis will continue to depart to the southeast.

A southwest flow and the loss of subsidence has resulted in the
increase in upward motion across the eastern great lakes. Lake
induced instability will continue to increase this morning as
equilibrium levels reach 8-10k feet. Moderate rain will continue
in these lake effect bands, east- northeast of the lakes this
morning. As the cold front tracks across western and north-
central ny this morning, winds will become west- northwest. Cold
air advection will move into the region with 850ts dropping to
-6 deg c by this afternoon. Widespread showers are expected as
the front passes the region this morning. As winds become
westerly, showers will continue along the southern shore of
lake ontario and the western southern tier this afternoon.

Temperatures will not deviate much today, with highs in the mid
40s and low 40s at higher elevations. Behind the front, winds
will also increase with gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon.

A mid-level trough will be overhead tonight and cold air advection
will continue. 850ts will continue to fall however subsidence
will increase causing equilibrium levels to drop throughout the
night. This will be the coldest airmass the eastern great lakes
has seen this fall and surface temperatures will drop into the
30s with some higher elevations getting down to the upper 20s. A
freeze warning is in effect for inland areas including
livingston and ontario counties for sub-freezing temperatures by
dawn on Thursday. A freeze warning is also in effect for
interior portions, away from the lake shore of southern erie,
chautauqua and oswego counties. Locations near the lakes will
stay above freezing in these counties. Locations out of these
counties and that are still in the growing season are expected
to stay just above freezing. Frost will likely not be an issue
as this airmass is very dry with dewpoints well in the 20s.

Winds will continue to veer to the northwest and lake effect
showers will continue southeast of the lakes. With the dropping
temperatures, rain showers will likely transition to snow
showers by dawn on Thursday and some areas may see the first
flakes of the season tonight. Due to the weakening intensity of
the showers, only a dusting is possible at higher elevations.

Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s at higher
elevations and the low to mid 30s across low-lying areas.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Chilly northwest flow will continue Thursday as low pressure remains
over the canadian maritimes and high pressure builds into the ohio
valley. There will still be some lake effect ongoing southeast of
the lakes. Inversion heights will steadily lower through the day as
the pool of coldest air aloft moves off, and synoptic scale moisture
will also steadily decrease, which will force lake effect
precipitation to weaken through the day.

Off lake erie... Expect a few scattered snow showers in the morning
across the higher terrain of chautauqua and cattaraugus counties,
possibly mixing with a little rain if it lasts until late morning.

There may be a very minor coating of snow on the grass in a few
spots. This will end by early afternoon as inversion heights
continue to lower.

Off lake ontario... Expect most of the lake effect precipitation to
focus from near rochester into the western finger lakes Thursday
morning where an upstream connection to georgian bay is noted in the
mesoscale model guidance. Much of the mesoscale model guidance has
the band well south and west of rochester Thursday morning, but the
models often place a NW flow band too far south and west in this
type of setup. With this in mind, kept the highest pops about 30
miles northeast of the guidance. Precipitation type will be mainly
snow first thing in the morning, with some rain possibly mixing in
within a few miles of the lakeshore. Some areas may see a very light
coating of snow on the grass. From late morning through the
afternoon the boundary layer will slowly warm, allowing any leftover
showers to change to rain. Boundary layer flow will begin to back a
little to the wnw in the afternoon, carrying any remaining showers
towards the southeast end of the lake. The showers should end by
late afternoon or early evening as inversion heights continue to
lower.

Highs on Thursday will be chilly, with low to mid 40s on the lake
plains and only 30s across the higher terrain.

Thursday night the surface high will build to the mid atlantic, with
fairly strong southwesterly flow and warm advection developing
across our region. The warm advection will produce some clouds, and
also force rising temperatures overnight. Early lows will be in the
mid to upper 30s in most areas before temperatures rise into the 40s
on the lake plains overnight. It will become quite windy on the lake
plains overnight, with gusts to around 30 knots northeast of lake
erie including the buffalo area.

Friday high pressure drifts off the mid atlantic coast, with the
next trough digging into the upper midwest. Mid level moisture and
large scale ascent will increase ahead of the next system and bring
some increase in clouds from west to east. Any showers should hold
off until Friday night. The arrival of a warmer airmass and good
mixing will boost temperatures into the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, with some lower 60s possible in the genesee valley and
western finger lakes.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
The temporary easing of the cold pattern Friday and Saturday will
quickly give way to another push of very chilly air Saturday night
and Sunday as the reloading trough over the upper midwest digs into
the great lakes and new england. A cold front and associated mid
level shortwave will produce a few showers Friday night into
Saturday, with lake enhanced showers possibly developing later
Saturday east of the lakes as temperatures aloft begin to drop. Lows
Friday night will be in the 40s, with highs Saturday in the low to
mid 50s in most areas.

Cold air aloft pours back into the eastern great lakes Saturday
night and Sunday. Boundary layer flow will become northwest behind a
secondary cold front, with both the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a brief
period of fairly deep moisture in the cold air late Saturday night
as the main trough axis crosses the area. This will support lake
effect showers southeast of the lakes, with wet snow mixing in
overnight as the boundary layer cools. Lake effect snow showers will
linger Sunday morning southeast of the lakes before diminishing and
mixing with rain later in the day.

Another clipper system will move through the great lakes Monday and
possibly into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of a few rain or wet
snow showers Monday morning, transitioning to rain showers later
Monday as somewhat milder air aloft and at the surface moves back
into the area. Highs Monday will still be in the 40s in most areas,
with some lower 50s possible by Tuesday.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front will track across the terminals through this morning.

Lake effect rain showers will continue across the terminals
before shifting southeast of the lakes. Showers will likely
continue for kroc and kjhw into the evening hours. MainlyVFR
conditions expected with the exception of the higher elevations
such as kjhw where MVFR CIGS are more likely. Breezy, westerly
winds will continue today with gusts increasing to near 30 kts
behind the cold front late this morning.

Lake effect rain showers will diminish tonight however will likely
transition to a short period of snow showers. Main impact will be
across kroc and kjhw as winds become NW into Thursday morning.

Sub- ifr conditions are expected in any snow showers.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday... MVFR toVFR with rain showers likely. Breezy.

Sunday... MainlyVFR but MVFR ifr in lake effect rain and snow
showers southeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Marine
A surface low will track well north of lake ontario today while a
cold front moves from west to east across the lakes this morning.

Gusty winds will continue on the waters today and into this evening.

Winds will increase behind the front late this afternoon into this
evening especially across the eastern half of lake ontario. A
gale warning is in effect for this part of the lake. Small craft
advisories will continue elsewhere through tonight. Lake effect
showers will continue through tonight.

Westerly winds will support lingering small craft advisory
conditions on the lower great lakes through the remainder of much of
this week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am edt Thursday for nyz006-013-
014-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am
edt Thursday for loz030.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt Thursday
for loz043>045-063>065.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for loz042.

Synopsis... Hsk
near term... Hsk
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Hsk
marine... Hsk ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi41 min W 15 G 19 53°F 58°F1012.1 hPa30°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi47 min 55°F 1011.4 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi89 min W 21 55°F 60°F8 ft1011 hPa (-1.1)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi41 min 52°F 1011.5 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi29 min SW 8.9 G 17 52°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.7)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi29 min SW 12 G 18 50°F 1012.6 hPa (-1.3)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi89 min WSW 19 G 25 52°F 58°F2 ft1010.7 hPa (-0.9)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi29 min WSW 9.9 G 14 51°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi36 minW 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast50°F33°F52%1011.5 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi35 minW 1010.00 miOvercast51°F35°F54%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W8W10W12
G19
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SW14SW12
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--W13W13W13
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1 day agoSE6S5S3S5SW13S14S14SW18
G27
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G26
W15
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G23
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G31
W16
G28
W12
G22
W10
G18
W10W12W11W11W10
2 days agoS6S8SE5S9S9S10W10SW8W8W7W5CalmSW4W5CalmCalmSE4SE7SE7SE6SE4CalmSE4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.