Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:47 PM EDT (19:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 3:52PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1038 Am Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Clear.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers overnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 46 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201704232115;;145442 FZUS51 KBUF 231438 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1038 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ020-232115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 231905
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
305 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

Synopsis
A sprawling area of high pressure across the great lakes will
continue to provide for fair weather through Monday evening. A slow
moving area of low pressure moving up the eastern seaboard will
spread showers into new york state Monday night into Tuesday, with
much warmer and drier weather returning by the middle of the week.

Near term /through Monday/
High pressure extending across the great lakes from the central
mississippi valley to new england is resulting in beautiful spring-
time conditions across the lower great lakes this afternoon, with
cloudless skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. For
much of the forecast area, the fair weather will persist through
tonight and Monday, with just a few stray clouds sneaking in from
the south late in the day Monday. With clear skies and light winds
once again tonight, we may briefly see patchy fog develop once again
int he valleys of the southern tier around daybreak.

The one area that will see the fine weather interrupted will be the
north country. A cold front, currently visible on satellite imagery
extending from central quebec back across northern ontario and into
the upper peninsula of michigan will continue to press south to
roughly the northern shore of lake ontario by late tonight before
stalling out. The cloud shield ahead of the front will make it into
the north country overnight however, yielding partly to mostly
cloudy skies from late evening onwards, with clearing taking place
Monday afternoon, as the cloud debris is carried off to the east and
mid-level ridging bulges northwards into the area.

Regarding temperatures, with high pressure and light winds
promoting radiational cooling again tonight, look for temperatures
to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s, a few degrees warmer than
last night, thanks to a slightly warmer airmass in place.

Temperatures on Monday will run a few degrees warmer across portions
of the southern tier, thanks to increasing 850mb temps and
northeasterly flow, particularly across areas near lake erie, as
northeasterly synoptic flow will suppress the lake breeze. On the
other hand, areas north of the thruway will likely run several
degrees cooler, due to this same northeasterly flow enhancing the
lake ontario lakebreeze and advecting cooler lake-modified air
inland. Thus, expect highs to range from near 70 degrees near the
pennsylvania border to around 50 near the lake ontario shoreline,
with mid-50s to low 60s in the north country, where the lingering
effects of the cold front will depress temperatures somewhat.

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/
Monday night should start off dry with the region under the
influence of weak ridging. This ridge will start to break down late
in the night when a weak closed low across the mid-atlantic nudges a
bit closer to the area. A modest 40kt LLJ will increase the 850mb
flow and transport atlantic moisture into the area. Model consensus
develops showers along this boundary late Monday night. Showers
should become more widespread Tuesday morning, then diminish as the
as the axis of the LLJ lifts north of the area Tuesday afternoon.

These showers should taper off south of lake ontario by late
afternoon, while lingering into Tuesday evening east of lake
ontario. Despite likely pops in many areas, showers only last a
couple hours so Tuesday will be far from a washout.

Temperatures will be seasonably cool Monday night, with lows mainly
in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday will generally be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, with mid 60s across the lake plains west of
buffalo where downsloping and a partial clearing will help warm
things a bit.

The region will be in between the weakening coastal low and an
approaching trough late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This
will keep western new york dry, with mid-level riding supporting
a clearing trend Wednesday afternoon and night.

Despite some differences in guidance, there is little doubt that
temperatures will be above normal Wednesday. Expect highs in the
70s, with a weak southeast flow and associated downsloping bringing
the warmest temperatures to the lake plains. This also will help
limit the inland extent of the lake breeze and keep cooler
afternoon temperatures very close to the lakeshores. Given model
differences the forecast sticks close to model consensus, but does
enhance downslope influences where are likely to be missed by lower
resolution guidance.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/
For Thursday the medium range guidance remains in reasonable
agreement that the next modest surface low will lift from the great
lakes into northwestern quebec... While eventually pivoting its
trailing modest cold front across our region. This said... The timing
of this front also continues to trend markedly slower... With a
guidance consensus now holding this boundary off until mid-late
Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Consequently... It is
appearing more and more likely that our region will remain mainly
dry through at least the first half of Thursday... While also
experiencing temperatures more typical of early summer than mid
spring. With respect to the latter... Continued warming/downsloping
will allow daytime highs to climb to at least the 75-80 degree range
areawide Thursday... With widespread highs in the 80s more likely if
current consensus 850 mb temps of around +15c actually verify.

As the cold front passes through our region later Thursday and Thursday
night... It should be accompanied by at least some scattered showers
and thunderstorms... For which high chance pops remain in play from
our existing continuity. Following its passage... High pressure and
cooler/drier air should then build across our region later Thursday
night and Friday and provide return to mainly dry and cooler weather...

though temperatures will still remain well above normal with daytime
highs still expected to range through the 60s on Friday.

Moving on into the last third of this period... The medium range guidance
packages also continue to trend progressively slower with the arrival of
the next system late in the week/next weekend. As a result... The next
warm frontal boundary now does not look to arrive until Saturday at the
earliest... Which should result in our region remaining on the cooler side
of the boundary through the end of the week... And the next round of
shower/thunderstorm chances largely holding off until Saturday
afternoon and night.

Looking out just beyond the end of this period... It still appears that
another round of summerlike warmth (with highs potentially reaching into
the 80s again) will be possible following the passage of the aforementioned
warm front... With this potentially occurring sometime between Sunday and
Monday of the following week.

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/
Widespread unlimitedVFR conditions will prevail across much of the
forecast area through the forecast period, thanks to high pressure
sitting over the great lakes. A cold front swinging down out of
canada will stall just north of lake ontario, spreading mid and high
clouds across the north country tonight, but CIGS should remainVFR,
perhaps with some scattered MVFR clouds later tonight. Otherwise,
vfr conditions will prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Monday night... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with showers likely.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday... MainlyVFR with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
High pressure will maintain tranquil conditions on the lakes to
conclude the weekend. Northeasterly winds will freshen later tonight
on lake ontario however, as a cold front approaches the area and the
pressure gradient tightens as a slow moving low moves up the east
coast. Conditions on the eastern end of the lake may require small
craft advisories, as waves may push into the 3-5 foot range Monday
morning. Waves will diminish somewhat during the day on Monday.

Though it will remain quite choppy along the south shore of lake
ontario.

Winds will veer to the east Tuesday, as the ridge across the region
becomes re-oriented, shunting most of the wave action to canadian
waters. By mid-week, conditions on the lakes will become more
tranquil as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Apffel
long term... Jjr
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi48 min SSW 6 G 8 47°F 1018 hPa (-1.5)39°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi48 min 48°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.6)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi48 min 60°F 1018 hPa (-1.9)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi48 min WNW 5.1 G 8 58°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi48 min W 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 1019.5 hPa (-1.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi48 min W 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 1018.3 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
SW10
SW6
G10
W9
SW10
W9
SW6
SW3
SW5
SW5
G8
SW9
SW5
S5
S4
S5
S7
S6
S6
S6
SW3
W7
W8
W10
SW8
SW6
1 day
ago
SW12
G17
W14
G17
W17
SW12
G15
SW10
W8
W11
G15
W8
G13
W12
NW13
G17
W11
W9
W11
W9
W9
W8
NW11
G14
NW10
N10
G15
NW9
N12
N11
NW6
G9
NW7
G10
2 days
ago
E13
G18
NE8
G17
E13
G17
E9
G14
NE9
G17
E14
G19
E11
G15
S1
N9
SE4
SW4
SW1
SW3
SW4
G7
SW11
G16
SW8
G12
SW14
SW13
SW9
G13
SW8
SW11
SW11
G17
SW14
G18
SW13
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi55 minSW 1010.00 miFair64°F37°F37%1018.1 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi54 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds60°F27°F28%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrN6N76N7NW8SW8SW8SW5SW5SW4SW5S5S6S6S6S6S5S5SW9SW7SW9W10W12SW10
1 day agoSW18
G24
W19
G27
SW17
G24
W12
G20
SW8SW7SW7SW5W8W9NW10W9W5W8W7W9W4NW9NW8NW9NW9NW114N9
2 days ago--E15
G20
NE13E8E11NE15
G23
E11E9S4NW4SE4S5W6W6SW7W6SW12SW12SW10SW15SW10SW14
G19
SW13SW16
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.