Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:59 PM   Moonset 3:54 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 431 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Scattered showers early. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers.Friday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Monday - Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely.
the water temperature off buffalo is 42 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 190530 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 130 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will quickly pass across our region overnight, with fair weather. A cold front will move east across the area Friday, bringing another round of gusty showers to the region.
There will be one more round of scattered showers Saturday afternoon, then dry weather will return for Sunday. The weekend will be quite cool with a stretch of below average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Regional radar shows an area of precipitation stretching from Lower Michigan to Kentucky late tonight. For the overnight period, fairly quiet with partly cloudy skies across western NY and mostly cloudy skies across north central NY. Temperatures will rise towards Friday morning as southerly flow increases ahead of the next system.

Friday, another sharp mid level trough and cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes. A brief period of ascent and low level convergence associated with this feature will support a band of showers arriving in Western NY during the morning, then spreading east to the eastern Lake Ontario region by afternoon. The main band of showers will be narrow and brief, although there may be a few more scattered showers popping up both in front of, and behind the main band of rain. Instability is minimal, but a fairly strong wind field aloft may allow a few of the showers to produce gusty winds even without thunder.

A 50+ knot low level jet will be found in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave and poor low level lapse rates will keep much of this aloft, but there may still be gusts above 30 mph Friday. Temperatures will briefly rise into the upper 50s to low 60s just ahead of the front, then begin to pull back in the afternoon as cold advection increases.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes Friday will continue to push into the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This longwave trough will then remain overhead of the Great Lakes throughout the weekend. Within this troughing pattern a shortwave trough will pass through the longwave pattern supporting some active weather for the start of the weekend.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday night, supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night.
By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country, while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid- level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.

A broad area of surface high pressure will then push into western and north central New York Saturday night through Sunday. While this will promote mainly dry weather across the region, the longwave mid- level trough axis overhead will promote cool temperatures. Highs Sunday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure ridged across the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes at the start of this period will build eastward across our area Monday...then will slide out across New England Monday night while a low-amplitude mid-level trough and attendant surface low push across the Upper MidWest and Upper Great Lakes. The high will provide us with a plenty of sunshine and high temps recovering to near-normal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday...with fair dry weather then continuing Monday night...albeit with a general increase in cloud cover out ahead of the next system. With a milder airmass and general south to southwest flow in place...lows Monday night will be milder than those of the previous couple of nights...with mins ranging from the mid 30s across interior sections of the Southern Tier and North Country to the lower 40s across the lake plains.

While some differences persist in the details...the medium range guidance remains in good general agreement on pushing the above mentioned mid-level trough and associated surface reflection eastward and across the Great Lakes and Northeast between Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring our next general opportunity for some showers...with a current model consensus suggesting the peak of these coming between later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night...followed by sharply diminishing pcpn potential/coverage on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure and notably colder/much drier air builds in behind the departing surface low. While some guidance continues to suggest the potential for the incoming colder airmass to be cold enough to provoke a lake response Wednesday...the combination of its rather dry nature and strong late April diurnal influences will help to prevent the development of much more than some cloud cover.

After that...the aforementioned surface high will continue to build across our region Wednesday night and Thursday...with plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the ridge providing us with dry and uneventful weather through the end of the period.

With respect to temperatures Tuesday through Thursday...expect slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) to prevail on the warm side of the system on Tuesday. Following the passage of its trailing cold front...temps will fall back to below average levels in the 40s on Wednesday...with steady or falling temps possible during the day depending upon the strength of the cold advection regime behind the low. A chilly night with lows around the freezing mark will then follow for Wednesday night...before sunshine and airmass modification allow highs to recover a bit into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR flight conditions are across the region late tonight. Model guidance is pessimistic with MVFR conditions holding at KART overnight. It seems like enough dry air has moved into the region so will hold previaling VFR overnight. A cold front is approaching the region with an area of showers extending from Michigan to western Ohio late tonight. Rain showers will enter far western NY after daybreak and move east through the day. Overall, light showers are expected. Steady showers will reach KROC by 16z and KART by 19z.

Flight conditions will deteriorate from west to east, mainly behind the steadier showers Friday. Mainly low-end MVFR conditions with the exception of IFR at KJHW and a brief period of possible IFR at KBUF this afternoon. Flight conditions will improve shortly after showers end from west to east late Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

Southerly winds will increase Friday morning, then veer to the southwest to west tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front. Wind gusts may reach 25-30 knots ahead and behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

MARINE
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Friday. South winds will increase ahead of the front late tonight and Friday morning, then veer to the southwest and west Friday afternoon behind the front. This will likely produce a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario midday Friday through Friday evening.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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