Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:58PM Sunday June 16, 2019 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 944 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of drizzle late this morning.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast around 10 knots. Partly Sunny.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely. The water temperature off buffalo is 59 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201906161515;;162094 FZUS51 KBUF 161344 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 944 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-161515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 161402
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1002 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
Clouds will linger today and keep temperatures below normal,
with the exception of the north country where some breaks of sun
will develop. A frontal boundary will then remain stalled just
south of the area Monday through Wednesday with a chance of a
few showers at times across the southern tier. Weak high
pressure over southeast ontario will keep the rest of the area
mainly dry with temperatures near average.

Near term through tonight
A convectively enhanced wave of low pressure and vorticity maxima
will move eastward into southeastern ny this afternoon. Showers
associated with this feature will exit our region, but there
still will be a stalled frontal boundary near the ny pa border
which will potentially serve as a focus for more showers this
afternoon and evening. After this wave there is relatively poor
agreement among high resolution guidance, but some members do
show another wave tracking along the stalled frontal boundary
tonight while other guidance keeps our area mainly dry.

Otherwise, there will be areas of drizzle and fog south of lake
ontario for the remainder of this morning. Most of the drizzle
will end this afternoon, but low clouds and stratus will last
through most (if not all) of the daylight hours. The only
exception is across the north country where there will be some
clearing.

The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures below average
today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, and even
some upper 50s along the south shore of lake ontario with a
northeast breeze off the cold lake. The north country has the best
chance of seeing some sunshine today, and if this materializes
temperatures will rise into the lower 70s in that area. Lows tonight
will drop into the mid 50s in most areas, with upper 40s to lower
50s for the north country.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
Weak surface based ridging will be in place across of the lower
lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, the next convectively enhanced short
wave is forecast to ride along a fairly diffuse frontal boundary to
our south which may sneak in a few showers or an isolated stronger
storm across the western southern tier. Otherwise, a majority of the
forecast area should remain precipitation free on Monday. Highs will
also climb to near normal or a little above normal for this time of
year, which is in the mid 70s.

With the frontal boundary displaced fairly far to our south over
southern pennsylvania Monday night it should be for the most part a
dry night, although there still remains a bit of uncertainty in the
various model guidance on how close these convectively enhance
shortwaves will come to our forecast area. Have kept chance pops
across the western southern tier overnight to account for this
uncertainty. Look for lows temperatures overnight in the 50s by day
break.

Tuesday through Wednesday, not much will change with the diffuse
frontal boundary to our south and weak surface ridging over the
eastern great lakes. Again, chances for showers or a strong storm
will largely remain across the western southern tier with each
passing convectively enhanced shortwave. Highs both Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night in
the 50s.

Wednesday night, two distinct shortwaves, one over the mid
mississippi valley and the other upstream of the lead shortwave over
wyoming are forecast to phase and potentially bringing a soaking
rainfall to the region during the later half of this week. More on
that in the long term disco... Otherwise, the first half of the
night should remain dry with conditions slowly deteriorating
overnight into Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
The aforementioned shortwave over the mid mississippi valley and
associated surface low will potentially bring a soaking rainfall to
the area during this period. While model solutions are not in
complete absolute unison on the timing or duration of the mentioned
moisture-laden system, the details in regards to pwats are and
approach 2 inches, along with strong upper level forcing, good
deformation, low level convergence, and even some elevated
instability all seem present.

With this in mind, pops continue to be nudged upwards and focused on
the Thursday to Thursday night time frame when the preponderance of
guidance suggests the most likely time for the passage of the system
exists. That said, with the aforementioned concurrence in forcing
mechanisms, heavy rain wording was added to the forecast.

Beyond Thursday night, there is significant uncertainty on when this
system will exit and the eventual return to dry weather occurs.

Depending on which model guidance you prefer, Friday could be a
complete wash out or a slow turn to drier weather occurs as we head
into the weekend. Only time will tell, for now have added chance
pops for Friday to account for all the uncertainty in the guidance
for now.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
A wave of low pressure will move into southeastern ny this
afternoon, with widespread rain ending as this system exits by
16z. Scattered light showers and areas of drizzle will linger
through at least the morning hours. The majority of the area
will dry out this afternoon, although a few showers may linger
across the southern tier into this evening.

Variable conditions will continue through 18z with flight
conditions ranging from ifr toVFR. This is due to a northerly
upslope flow behind a cold front which will enhance low level
moisture and stratus. Some MVFR ifr CIGS will likely continue
across the higher terrain of the southern tier through tonight.

Some patchy fog will continue for the remainder of this morning
with local ifr vsby, mainly across the higher terrain where
stratus intersects the hilltops and also along the south shore
of lake ontario. Patchy fog may re-develop tonight across the
southern tier with local ifr vsby.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the southern tier.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday... MVFR ifr. Showers likely.

Marine
A frontal zone will stall from the ohio valley to pa today through
Wednesday while weak high pressure settles into southeast ontario
and southern quebec. This will keep a weak pressure gradient across
the eastern great lakes, with light winds and flat wave action.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock apffel
near term... Apffel hitchcock
short term... Ar
long term... Ar fries
aviation... Apffel hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi49 min NE 12 G 14 56°F 57°F1 ft1011 hPa (+1.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi49 min NE 16 G 17 55°F 1010.5 hPa (+1.2)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi109 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 50°F 48°F1 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi49 min ENE 11 G 13 54°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi55 minENE 93.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F53°F90%1010.9 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi56 minENE 810.00 miOvercast59°F53°F81%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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SW9SW9SW10W6W6SW4NW6N9NE6NE5NE9NE7NE8NE10NE12NE9E9
1 day agoSW22
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SW10SW9SW7S7S8S10SW13SW14
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2 days agoS8S10S10S9S11
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.