Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:07PM Saturday April 21, 2018 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:00AMMoonset 12:17AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 431 Pm Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely Tuesday night.
Wednesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 35 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201804220300;;298687 FZUS51 KBUF 212036 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-220300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212013
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
413 pm edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
Expansive high pressure across the region this weekend will move
east off the new england coast Monday. This will usher in a
welcome period of dry weather with day to day warming that will
last through early next week.

Near term through Sunday
High pressure will remain across the region through Sunday. There
will be mostly sunny skies for the remainder of this afternoon
with just some thin cirrus across far western new york.

Temperatures will generally peak in the lower to mid 50s this
afternoon, except it will be cooler across higher terrain and
near the lakeshores.

Tonight, the clear skies, light winds and dry airmass will support
good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s inland
to the low 30s across the lake plains.

Expect more of the same on Sunday, except that the air mass will be
warmer which will support high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer.

Lake breezes will again influence temperatures, but a weak
northeast gradient flow will enhance the lake breeze south of
the lakes while suppressing the southwesterly flow which
typically develops northeast of the lakes. As a result, Sunday
should be much warmer across most of the buffalo metro area.

The forecast weights high resolution mesoscale guidance, which best
captures the lake breezes and temperature differences associated
with them.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
A vast area of high pressure will be across the northeast and mid-
atlantic Sunday night. Dry conditions will continue into the start
of the work week as an upper level ridge moves overhead. A southerly
flow and full sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the 60s
on Monday. Interior valleys will reach the mid to upper 60s while
the lake shores will likely experience a lake breeze by afternoon
keeping them cooler.

A nearly stationary, stacked low over the lower tn valley and
southeast u.S. Will get dislodged by an incoming shortwave trough
from the northern rockies Monday night and Tuesday. The stacked
system will begin to move northward towards the ohio valley and mid-
high level clouds will increase from southwest to northeast across
western ny and the north country. As high pressure moves off the
east coast, moisture advection will increase across the eastern
great lakes. Rain showers are expected to move into western ny
Tuesday morning and spread across the forecast area by Tuesday
night. During this time, the closed low will become an open wave and
phase with an elongated trough stemming from hudson bay down into
the central plains.

Temperatures will remain elevated with high temperatures in the 60s
Tuesday. Confidence is lower regarding the lake breeze Tuesday.

Southeast winds will be slightly elevated and may inhibit the
forward progression of the lake breeze. Clouds will also be
thickening during the day Tuesday which may keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The phasing mentioned above will bring about a return to longwave
troughing across the eastern conus, and yield a return to an
unsettled and wetter weather, eventually being reinforced by a
secondary shortwave out of northern canada late week. Models
continuing to struggle with the handling of the surface low
working north along the east coast associated with the lead
shortwave. Therefore, will lean more heavily on the ensemble
means to try an account for some of these differences.

Ensemble means favoring the surface low to track north from the
mid atlantic coast into southern new england from Wednesday
through Thursday. Better moisture and forcing to the north of
the low will focus a period of showers across the region during
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The shower activity should taper back from west to east Thursday as
the surface low pushes farther into new england. There may be a
brief period of dry weather later Thursday into Friday as some
ridging develops behind the wave moving into new england and the
incoming reinforcing shortwave. This secondary shortwave will
send a cold front into the region some time Friday with
additional chances for showers which may linger through
Saturday.

The overall temperatures trend through the period will be for
temperatures at or above normal during the mid week period, but
falling to below normal levels late in the week and into the
weekend.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
WidespreadVFR will prevail across the area through Sunday.

High pressure across the region will result in mainly clear
skies and light winds which will be influenced by afternoon lake
breezes.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MVFR. Showers likely.

Thursday...VFR MVFR. A chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure across the lower great lakes this weekend will slowly
drift east early next week. Winds will generally be light during
this period, influenced by afternoon lake breezes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Tma
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi50 min S 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 1028.7 hPa29°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi50 min 40°F 1029.2 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi56 min 50°F 1029.3 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi68 min W 6 G 8 51°F 1028.8 hPa (-1.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi68 min WSW 7 G 7 40°F 1030.3 hPa (-2.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi68 min Calm G 0 49°F 1029.8 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi75 minWSW 910.00 miFair55°F28°F36%1029.9 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi74 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F24°F38%1029.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW6SW6SW5SW3SW3S3CalmS3S3S3S4SW7SW8SW9SW9W10SW9SW7SW11W10SW11SW9SW7
1 day agoNW12
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W8NW7NW11NW8NW5NW6NW8NW5NW8NW12NW11NW10NW9NW6NW10NW9SW14SW13SW14SW8
2 days agoSW7SW7SW7SW5N3CalmCalmCalmW5W4NW7N12N9N11NW12
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.