Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:07PM Monday September 25, 2017 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 138 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
This afternoon..South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Sunny.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers during the day.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 71 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201709252100;;918289 FZUS51 KBUF 251738 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-252100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 252051
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
451 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will keep dry weather and midsummerlike warmth across
our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of a few light showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night... With much cooler temperatures then following for
Thursday right on through next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
For the rest of the day... Ridging at all levels will continue to
provide our area with dry weather and plentiful sunshine. In terms
of cloud cover... Just some very thin high cirrus will continue to
work across the area from southwest to northeast... With some scattered
diurnal cumulus also developing across western new york in tandem
with a subtle increase in low level moisture. The big story though
will continue to be the midsummerlike heat... With 850 mb temps of
+19c to +20c supporting widespread upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations... With slightly cooler readings across the higher
terrain and along the immediate lakeshores. The previous record
high temperature for buffalo (87 in 2007) has already been eclipsed
with an 89 degree reading as of this writing... And we will likely
tack on another couple of degrees to this before temps peak around
mid afternoon. Elsewhere... The record high for rochester (92, also
in 2007) should be at least approached before the lake ontario lake
breeze arrives... While the record at watertown (89) currently appears
safe.

Tonight... High pressure will remain in place with any diurnal cumulus
over wny quickly fading with the loss of heating... While thin high
cirrus continues circulate across our region aloft. Much like last
night... Nocturnal cooling of our moist boundary layer and light winds
should result in areas of valley fog redeveloping across the southern
tier... While patchier lighter fog develops elsewhere. Otherwise it
will be a very mild night by late september standards... With lows
ranging from the lower 60s across the north country and interior
portions of the southern tier to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere.

On Tuesday... Hurricane maria will be slowly moving northward offshore
of the carolina coastline... While a modest midlevel trough presses
from the northern plains into the upper mississippi valley. Meanwhile
our region will continue to lie in the squeeze play ridging separating
these two systems... Albeit with the main upper ridge axis sliding a
bit to our south and weakening slightly. With a little bit more in
the way of low level moisture available to work with and strong
heating of our very warm and humid airmass again expected... It is not
entirely out of the question that (as suggested by some guidance) we
could pop an isolated afternoon shower or two across interior sections
of far western new york... Though with the mid levels remaining very
dry and possibly capped... Will continue to advertise a dry forecast
for now. Otherwise it will be another mostly sunny and unseasonably
warm to hot day with widespread highs in the 85-90 range again
anticipated... With the warmest readings most likely to lie from the
genesee valley eastward... Where supporting 850 mb temps will be the
warmest. Record highs for september 26th are 87 at buffalo (1959)...

89 at rochester (1900)... And 82 at watertown (1970)... With the
watertown record currently appearing in serious jeopardy and the
records at buffalo rochester likely to at least be very closely
approached.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the last of the recent summer-
like warmth for the region. In addition, some areas will see their
first chance for rain in about 2 weeks arriving Wednesday with one
or two prefrontal frontal troughs and or afternoon lake breeze
boundaries. The front itself will likely be a dry frontal passage
for western ny. Expect it to ease into the region Wednesday evening
with scattered convection well ahead of it over central ny.

Thursday should be dry but with ample strato-cumulus under an
upslope northwest flow. It's possible a few sites might see a
sprinkle or two, but the main story will be the ~20f drop in daytime
high temperatures. While it may feel cool, the highs, mostly
in the 60s, will actually get us back our normal climatology.

Thursday night should be similarly dry with a continued drop in
temperatures resulting in lows in the 40s overnight. This will
coincide with a surface ridge dropping from the upper great lakes
region into western ny overnight.

Long term Friday through Monday
A sharp longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front will
drop across our region Friday or Friday night as a more progressive
pattern develops over the conus. This will bring a chance of rain
showers and another shot of cold air advection. 850 mb temperatures
are forecast to drop to near zero c behind the secondary cold front
with a north to northwesterly flow over the lakes. Expect this
airmass to be sufficiently cold enough to contribute to some lake
driven rain showers behind the cold front Friday night into
Saturday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 60s Friday
with even cooler temperatures expected Saturday, with highs
struggling to get to 60 degrees. Overnight lows will generally
be in the 40s, with the typically cooler interior valleys and
north country dipping into the 30s by Saturday night.

High pressure will again build into the region late in the weekend
and into early next week. A warming trend is expected during this
time which could last into at least mid next week, with
temperatures warming back to at least 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, but not quite to the extent we are currently experiencing.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Ridging at all levels will continue to promote largelyVFR conditions
through Tuesday... Except from later tonight through mid-Tuesday morning
as lifr ifr river valley fog redevelops across the southern tier... And
patchier lighter fog and ifr MVFR conditions form elsewhere.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR... Except localized ifr MVFR conditions in
developing southern tier valley fog overnight.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday... MainlyVFR... With a chance of showers
Friday and Saturday.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of
very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions,
but not much wind for sailing.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds
will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round
of advisory-worthy winds and waves to lakes erie and ontario late
Wednesday through early Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Zaff
long term... Tma
aviation... Jjr
marine... Hitchcock jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi53 min WNW 7 G 7 80°F 1015.8 hPa67°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi53 min 83°F 1016.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi83 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 79°F 76°F1016.2 hPa (-1.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi53 min 86°F 1017 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi83 min ENE 6 G 9.9 80°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi143 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 1017.3 hPa (-1.5)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi83 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 75°F1 ft1016 hPa (-1.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi83 min ENE 6 G 7 75°F 1017.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi30 minNE 69.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1015.8 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi29 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F66°F51%1016 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmS3S3SE3SE3SE5SE4SE5E3E4SE4S4SE4S3SE4CalmE5S5SE8SE66NE6NE7
1 day agoSW5SW5SW4S6S5S6S5S5S4S4SE4SE4SE4S4S4SW5SW5S4CalmW4NW5W63NE5
2 days agoNE5NE4N3E4CalmE3SE3S5S3SE4S3S4CalmS3S4SW3S6SW64W5S8SW8SW9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.