Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 6:01 PM EDT (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 431 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms early. A chance of showers late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds through the early overnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Scattered showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 75 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201808220330;;423460 FZUS51 KBUF 212031 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-220330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211853
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
253 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure over southwest ontario will deepen as
it moves into quebec tonight. This storm will bring widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms along its warm and cold
fronts with heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
possible. A few showers may linger into Wednesday before an
area of high pressure brings a return of fair weather Thursday
and Friday.

Near term through Wednesday
Regional radars showing an area of showing ahead of surface warm
front continuing to press northeast across the region this
afternoon. Dry slot aloft in wake of the warm front has helped to
start eroding cloud cover across central and western lake erie into
eastern ohio ahead of system cold front entering western lake erie
into central ohio. Satellite trends would suggest that sunshine will
develop across western new york between 3 and 5 pm. Expect scattered
or broken lines of convection to develop into the area late this
afternoon and early this evening as boundary layer starts to
destabilize. Increasing shear profiles could bring the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary
threat. The highest threat area looks to be across far western new
york through this evening, where better instability will develop and
effective bulk shear will be 35-40 knots. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible as precipitable water value run around 2 inches. The
severe and heavy rain threat tapers off east of the genesee valley.

Behind the front, cooler air will arrive with wrap around moisture
and upslope flow allowing for lingering chances for showers. Drying
will begin in the wake of the front but dewpoints will only slip
back into the mid to low 60s by daybreak Wednesday. This will keep
overnight temps on the mild side for one more night bottoming out in
the mid 60s.

Wednesday looks to be cooler as an upper level trough moves
over the eastern great lakes. An incoming pool of cold air
aloft with 850 mb temperatures down to around +10c will be
cool enough to generate a northwest flow lake response with
enhanced cloud cover and lake induced rain showers southeast of
the lakes and over the higher terrain. Elsewhere, cyclonic flow
aloft may bring scattered diurnally driven convective showers.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
An expansive area of high pressure will provide us with beautiful
late summer weather for the majority of this period... As low dew
points will combine with near normal temperatures to support
comfortable conditions. As we head into the weekend though... The
start of the next pattern change will signal the return of mid
summer heat and humidity.

The base of a progressive shortwave trough will cross our forecast
area Wednesday night. While a canadian airmass associated with this
feature will be chilly enough to establish some instability over the
lakes... A general lack of synoptic moisture and a lowering
subsidence inversion will squelch the majority of any organized
mesoscale driven response. Will thus maintain low chc pops for
southeast of lake ontario for the evening hours... While slgt chc
pops will be left intact for the shorter fetched response off lake
erie. Otherwise... Clearing skies will be found over the region with
temperatures dropping off into the 50s. There should even be some
40s across the interior of the SRN tier and across parts of the
north country.

On Thursday... The center of the large surface high will drift to
west virginia while significant height rises will be found over the
lower great lakes. Deep subsidence and an abundance of dry air
within this scenario will guarantee a beautiful day across our
region... As ample sunshine will be accompanied by highs in the 70s.

Ridging at all levels will move across the region Thursday night...

providing us with perfect viewing of the august full sturgeon moon.

It will also be an ideal night for sleeping as lows will once
again be in the 50s away from the lakes.

Dry weather will remain intact on Friday... Although with the large
surface high moving off the new england coast... Warmer air will
start to return to the region. It will still be comfortable though
as low level moisture (dew points) will not significant increase
until later in the weekend.

Speaking of which... A weak warm front is forecast to push northward
across our region late Friday night and Saturday. This will not only
usher in noticeably more humid conditions... But it could also
generate a few showers. The bulk of any shower tstorm activity will
be found over the western counties.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Mid summer warmth and humidity returns...

an amplifying sub tropical ridge over the ohio and tennessee valleys
will support a return to uncomfortably warm and humid conditions
during this period. In fact... Temperatures will climb to nearly 10
degrees f above typical late august readings with highs in the low
to mid 80s and overnight lows within a few degrees of 70.

The muggy mid summer weather will be accompanied by the daily threat
for thunderstorms as a frontal boundary will become stalled across
the top of the aforementioned mid level ridge.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Lower endVFR and MVFR CIGS will be common with tempo reductions to
ifr CIGS vis in passing heavy showers and storms associated with a
northeast moving warm front. During the course of the afternoon, the
convection will move across the eastern lake ontario region where
conditions will similarly deteriorate to MVFR levels.

In the wake of the warm front, there looks to be a short few hour
period where showers and storms will become just isolated until a
strong cold front arrives moving toward the evening hours. Showers
and thunderstorms just ahead of and along this cold front could
become strong to severe with gusty winds heavy rain and ifr or lower
restrictions. The front will pass east across wny and cny tonight
with winds shifting to westerly in its wake. Expect precipitation to
taper down behind the front with just chances of showers in place
for wny by 06z Wednesday while kart should still likely see showers
and storms through 09 12z.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
An unseasonably deep surface low will track north across the eastern
great lakes tonight. This low will push a sharp cold front across
the lower great lakes tonight which will bring gusty westerly winds
and higher waves. Small craft advisories for the nearshore waters of
lake erie and ontario will remain in effect tonight into Wednesday.

Waterspouts are a possibility late tonight through Wednesday morning
and then again Wednesday night in any residual showers. Cold air
aloft will help support the instability to produce the waterspout
potential.

High pressure will return for the end of the week with a return of
fair conditons.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for loz043>045.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Wednesday for loz042.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Smith tma
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi31 min S 21 G 25 78°F 1006.2 hPa64°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi31 min 78°F 1005.8 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi31 min 78°F 1005.3 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi121 min S 15 G 26 80°F 1005.1 hPa (-3.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi121 min SSE 12 G 18 80°F 1005.6 hPa (-2.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi121 min 8 G 15 80°F 1006.1 hPa (-3.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi68 minS 17 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1004.5 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi67 minS 18 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy80°F69°F69%1005 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE8S8SE8SE8SE5SE5SE5--SE5E5E5SE6SE8SE4SE6S12S9SE11S12
G20
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1 day agoE5NE8E6E5E6E6E5SE5SE5SE3SE5E3E3SE6SE5S4S45E4E6E7SE12SE9E8
2 days agoNE9NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE63E6E5E6E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.