Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 22, 2018 4:53 PM CST (22:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:40AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ673 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 258 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southeast. Rain likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 kt veering to west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Chance of snow and light freezing rain in the morning...then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..Southeast gales to 35 kt becoming south gales to 40 kt. Rain in the evening...then rain likely overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 45 kt diminishing to gales to 40 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ673 Expires:201802230430;;388739 FZUS63 KLOT 222058 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 258 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.7 inches over southern Quebec will push to the east late tonight and Friday morning. A low of 30.1 inches will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley early Friday to the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon. High pressure of 30.5 inches will build across the Dakotas Friday and move to Quebec Saturday. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains Friday night and lift across Lake Superior Sunday at 29.0 inches. A 30.2 inch high will build over the Central Plains Monday and move to the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-230430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
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location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222118
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
318 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018

Short term
Tonight and Friday... Forecast confidence is high...

as has been typical of late, a rather complex wintry precipitation
forecast. At this hour, mid level moisture continues to stream
over the area. The most we could muster so far is sporadic reports
of a few flakes rain drops as snow aloft evaporates in the dry
lower levels. In spite of abundant cloud coverage and easterly
flow, temperatures have steadily warmed today, though dewpoints
are lagging a bit in this dry low level flow which will have an
impact on our forecast as we head into this evening.

Low level moisture will steadily increase over the next few hours
and lift will continue to increase in a warm advection regime.

Persistent isentropic upglide is expected from late this afternoon
and evening which should eventually produce light precipitation.

Initial precip type will likely be snow sleet given sufficient
moisture in the ice growth region aloft and low level wet bulbing
effects. With time, though, the presence of cloud ice will become
questionable if not downright variable. By this evening, there is
enough variability in the presence of cloud ice that a light mix
of snow sleet rain is expected. Initial light precipitation will
primarily be along and west of a line from monroe to madison to
fond du lac. Precipitation amounts this evening do not look
robust, but any areas of temperatures at below 32 will pose a risk
for glazing and slick spots on roads.

Overnight, cloud ice aloft remains variable (at best) and a low
level warm nose will increase as surface low pressure passes just
to our northwest. As a result snow will become less likely and
rain some pockets of sleet will become dominate. The best risk of
at below freezing temperatures will be in the current advisory
area where a glazing to up to one tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation is forecast. Locations along and southeast of a line
from monroe to janesville to waukesha to port washington look to
remain at or above freezing by the time precipitation moves in, so
at this point just rain is expected overnight (perhaps a few
sleet pellets snow flakes at the onset as we moisten up).

The good news is that the freezing line will be on the move
northward overnight. So the most dicey period for glazing light
mix accumulation will be this evening through about 3 am, with the
freezing line nearly north of the area by daybreak. Given
nighttime timing and low level temperature variability, there is
no need to alter the going advisory. The main message will be
travel impacts that will be variable - some locations wet, others
slick - and prepare for a slower morning commute.

Lingering light rain exits to the east during the daylight hours
of Friday morning with at least partial clearing expected in the
afternoon. Highs will be above average in the 30s to around 40
degrees.

Friday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence medium.

Polar high pressure will shift from the NRN great plains to the
nrn great lakes for Fri nt-sat am. Afterward, cyclogenesis will
begin from the central and southern great plains to NRN mo by 00z
sun as a sharp upper trough ejects newd from the 4 corners region.

The low will then track newd and rapidly deepen to 982 mb near
the wi and upper mi border by 12z sun. Low to mid level warm,
moist advection and the approaching sharp upper trough will begin
the rain by late Sat afternoon or early evening. An occluded
front will then pass through the evening with at least slight
chances for tstorms. The fairly fast movement of this system only
results in forecasted rainfall amounts around 0.25 inches at this
time. The occluded low may then deepen to 979 mb as it moves from
lake superior into ontario, canada. The strong low and steepening
lapse rates via cold advection will allow wswly wind gusts to
approach wind advisory levels for Sun am.

Long term Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence medium.

A broad but low amplitude ridge will prevail over the ERN usa for
early in the week. Persistent swly flow will occur for mon-tue.

High temps for those days will range from the middle 40s to the
lower 50s. Afterward, confidence lessens due to the uncertain
interaction of upper waves in the NRN and SRN streams of a split
flow jet stream. Weak or fairly strong cyclogenesis may occur and
bring mixed pcpn to SRN wi for Tue nt-thu. Polar high pressure
will then return for fri.

Aviation(21z tafs)
The going forecast is largely on track. The biggest change with
this update is to shrink the duration of light freezing rain and
sleet at msn to just this evening. Slow warming is expected
during the overnight hours. Precipitation type at ues, mke and enw
still looks to be of the liquid variety with air temperatures
above freezing.

CurrentVFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR this
evening and then ifr lifr overnight. Visibility restrictions will
be most common with precipitation and generally in the MVFR range.

Winds will be easterly, shifting to southerly overnight and
westerly Friday morning as low pressure exits to the east.

Conditions will improve during the daylight hours of Friday
morning with partial clearing during the afternoon.

Marine
East-northeasterly winds will shift to southeasterly this evening
and continue to increase with time. 3 to 5 ft waves build to 4 to
7 feet tonight. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Winds will become westerly Friday as low pressure exits, but
become east-southeast again later Saturday and Sunday in advance
of our next low pressure passage. Still looking at the potential
for strong low pressure to move through the great lakes region
Sunday, with increasing winds and waves in response.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Friday for wiz046-047-056-057-062-067.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Friday for wiz051-052-058-059-063-064.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am cst Friday for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am cst Friday
for lmz643-644.

Tonight Friday and aviation marine... Gagan
Friday night through Thursday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi53 min ENE 7 G 8.9 34°F 1031.2 hPa (-2.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi43 min NE 11 G 12 33°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi43 min ESE 8.9 G 12 38°F 1034.1 hPa24°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi53 min ENE 14 G 18 40°F 1031.4 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi60 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4NE4NE5N3N5NE7NE8NE7NE9NE12NE10NE9NE11NE7NE9NE14NE11NE10NE10NE12NE11E9E10
1 day agoW9
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W8W7W8NW6NW6NW9NW7NW9NW11
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2 days agoN7NE7NE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS4CalmS5SW8NW6CalmSE3SE3S4NW8W10W6SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.