Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aten, NE
March 29, 2024 6:09 AM CDT (11:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:14 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 11:52 PM Moonset 8:02 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 291101 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 601 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Light showers will be possible east of Interstate 29 late this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will be light.
- Confidence continues to increase in periods of light rain and snow returning to the region starting Saturday night. However, the better chances (40%-80%) will occur between Sunday and Monday.
- Above normal temperatures look to return to the region for the middle and end of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
An upper level shortwave is moving across western SD very early this morning. Warm air advection is overspreading the region out ahead of this wave, and though current radar is showing returns through the northern James River Valley, no observations are showing any precipitation reaching the ground. A few of the CAMs are still suggesting the possibility of very light rain/freezing rain (dependent on surface temperature) over the western Highway 14 corridor through the early morning hours. Even so, any precipitation amounts are expected to be negligible.
Otherwise, the aforementioned upper level wave moves northeastward through the day as a an inverted surface trough slides across our area. Out ahead of the trough, temperatures warm well into the 50s over snow free areas by this afternoon, and model soundings would indicate a bit of elevated instability which could result in a few isolated showers east of I-29 in the late afternoon and evening.
Again though, precipitation amounts would be on the low side - generally only a few hundredths at most. While temperatures will also warm over the remainder of the area, highs will remain in the 40s over snow covered locations.
With cold air advection behind the exiting trough, tonight will see slightly cooler temperatures with lows in the 20s. The cold air advection will continue to have some impact on temperatures for Saturday, with most places remaining in the upper 30s to 40s in a north/northeasterly low level flow as a surface ridge builds into the region. The next upper level shortwave approaches the area on Saturday night, and with warm air advection aloft, precipitation is expected to develop later at night. Ensembles indicate moderate probabilities (20-50%) of receiving at least a tenth of an inch of precipitation overnight. Soundings would suggest that precipitation type would be mainly in the form of rain early, then possibly mixing with or changing to snow north of Interstate 90 by Sunday morning - with only minor accumulations expected.
For Sunday and Monday, an upper level trough slams into the western CONUS and slides eastward through the period. Still seeing model differences in regard to both upper level and surface features, with the GFS offering a more potent and more northerly closed upper level low and surface low ejecting into the Central Plains on Monday. At the same time, the ECMWF and Canadian indicate a more open and farther south upper level wave. Because of that, each model is exhibiting differences in how much precipitation our area will receive during the period. Latest ensemble guidance indicates only a 20-30% probability of receiving a half an inch of precipitation during the period - with GFS ensembles showing slightly higher probabilities due to the scenarios as outlined above. Because of these differences, there are also differences in the thermal profiles - which will affect precipitation type. At this time it appears that much of the precipitation should be in the form of rain, with highs on Sunday and Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s. The better chances of any snow accumulation would be west of Interstate 29 and north of Interstate 90. Even so, will bear watching as there could be changes in the models over the next couple of days.
Any precipitation would end by Monday night. After that, models are in decent agreement on upper level ridging building into the region for the middle and end of next week. With that will come a rather dramatic recovery in temperatures as readings climb back to much above normal for this time of year.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A surface trough will be moving across the area today, with breezy southeasterly winds in the morning decreasing, then transitioning to northwesterly and increasing by afternoon.
There is a small possibility (20-30%) of isolated showers east of Interstate 29 in the late afternoon and evening. With the passage of the trough, there could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KHON and KFSD early tonight.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 601 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Light showers will be possible east of Interstate 29 late this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will be light.
- Confidence continues to increase in periods of light rain and snow returning to the region starting Saturday night. However, the better chances (40%-80%) will occur between Sunday and Monday.
- Above normal temperatures look to return to the region for the middle and end of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
An upper level shortwave is moving across western SD very early this morning. Warm air advection is overspreading the region out ahead of this wave, and though current radar is showing returns through the northern James River Valley, no observations are showing any precipitation reaching the ground. A few of the CAMs are still suggesting the possibility of very light rain/freezing rain (dependent on surface temperature) over the western Highway 14 corridor through the early morning hours. Even so, any precipitation amounts are expected to be negligible.
Otherwise, the aforementioned upper level wave moves northeastward through the day as a an inverted surface trough slides across our area. Out ahead of the trough, temperatures warm well into the 50s over snow free areas by this afternoon, and model soundings would indicate a bit of elevated instability which could result in a few isolated showers east of I-29 in the late afternoon and evening.
Again though, precipitation amounts would be on the low side - generally only a few hundredths at most. While temperatures will also warm over the remainder of the area, highs will remain in the 40s over snow covered locations.
With cold air advection behind the exiting trough, tonight will see slightly cooler temperatures with lows in the 20s. The cold air advection will continue to have some impact on temperatures for Saturday, with most places remaining in the upper 30s to 40s in a north/northeasterly low level flow as a surface ridge builds into the region. The next upper level shortwave approaches the area on Saturday night, and with warm air advection aloft, precipitation is expected to develop later at night. Ensembles indicate moderate probabilities (20-50%) of receiving at least a tenth of an inch of precipitation overnight. Soundings would suggest that precipitation type would be mainly in the form of rain early, then possibly mixing with or changing to snow north of Interstate 90 by Sunday morning - with only minor accumulations expected.
For Sunday and Monday, an upper level trough slams into the western CONUS and slides eastward through the period. Still seeing model differences in regard to both upper level and surface features, with the GFS offering a more potent and more northerly closed upper level low and surface low ejecting into the Central Plains on Monday. At the same time, the ECMWF and Canadian indicate a more open and farther south upper level wave. Because of that, each model is exhibiting differences in how much precipitation our area will receive during the period. Latest ensemble guidance indicates only a 20-30% probability of receiving a half an inch of precipitation during the period - with GFS ensembles showing slightly higher probabilities due to the scenarios as outlined above. Because of these differences, there are also differences in the thermal profiles - which will affect precipitation type. At this time it appears that much of the precipitation should be in the form of rain, with highs on Sunday and Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s. The better chances of any snow accumulation would be west of Interstate 29 and north of Interstate 90. Even so, will bear watching as there could be changes in the models over the next couple of days.
Any precipitation would end by Monday night. After that, models are in decent agreement on upper level ridging building into the region for the middle and end of next week. With that will come a rather dramatic recovery in temperatures as readings climb back to much above normal for this time of year.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A surface trough will be moving across the area today, with breezy southeasterly winds in the morning decreasing, then transitioning to northwesterly and increasing by afternoon.
There is a small possibility (20-30%) of isolated showers east of Interstate 29 in the late afternoon and evening. With the passage of the trough, there could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KHON and KFSD early tonight.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KYKN CHAN GURNEY MUNI,SD | 6 sm | 13 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 30°F | 81% | 29.77 |
Sioux falls, SD,
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