Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Corfu, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:40PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1051 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 51 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201805242115;;457727 FZUS51 KBUF 241451 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1051 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-242115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corfu, NY
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location: 42.89, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 242034
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
434 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moving off the mid atlantic coast tonight will
circulate warmer and increasingly more humid air into our region for
the upcoming holiday weekend. This will certainly make it feel like
the first official weekend of summer... As apparent temperatures will
climb to levels more typical of july. The summery airmass will
support some scattered thunderstorm activity... Which should become
more common as we push deeper into the long weekend.

Near term through Friday night
It will be another beautiful night across western and north
central new york... As a wealth of dry and continued subsidence
from an exiting area of high pressure will offer up clear skies
and comfortable temperatures. The exception to the clear skies
will be some cirrus that will graze the north country as a weak
wave will cross eastern ontario into quebec. Mins tonight will
range form the upper 40s in the coolest SRN tier valleys and in
a few spots across lewis county to the mid 50s most elsewhere.

Friday promises to be another salubrious day across our
forecast area... As a deamplifying mid level ridge will settle
over the lower great lakes. This will support another day of
full sunshine... Although some debris cloudiness will be found
over the thousand islands region as a result of some convection
near and upstream from the ottawa valley. Mother nature will
tack a couple degrees onto the h85 temps (16c)... And as this
airmass becomes fully mixed... We can anticipate that our
afternoon highs will range from within a few degrees of 80 across
the north country to the mid and upper 80s in the genesee valley
and in the warmer southern tier valleys.

As we head into the holiday weekend Friday night... A shortwave
digging across the upper great lakes will combine with the offshore
surface high to deepen the south to southwest flow across our
region. This will promote an even milder night with temperatures
forecast to hold above 60 degrees. There may also be a shower or two
across the north country as a cold frontal boundary will sag south
across the ottawa valley.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The sub-tropical ridge will become surpressed off the southeast
coast this weekend and return flow will advect moisture and warmth
into the eastern great lakes through memorial day. This will lead to
the chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and
early evening.

High pressure located well off the east coast will continue to move
eastward Saturday. A cold front will be stretched from west to east
from lake superior to northern new england Saturday. A weak pressure
gradient will exist across western and central ny as that boundary
stays well to the north. A southwest flow will persist, mainly
across western ny with lighter winds east of rochester including the
north country. Forecast soundings continue to show weak lapse rates
as dewpoints in the upper 50s low 60s are expected and subtle
subsidence is still present with high pressure off the coast.

Temperatures will rise into the 80s inland and in the upper 70s
along the lake shores. Some interior valleys may see the upper 80s.

As moisture increases through the day, a CU field will likely
develop especially along any lake breeze boundaries. Showers and an
isolated thunderstorm are also possible mainly across the southern
tier and interior western ny western finger lakes region and along
lake breezes as well as far upstate ny where a boundary persists.

Further west... An upper level trough will approach ontario province
Saturday and showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the pennisula Saturday afternoon. The loss of daytime heating
will surpress most of the activity across the great lakes Saturday
evening however any stronger showers or storms will likely move
eastward Saturday evening, making their way across lake ontario.

Activity is expected to diminish as they move into an unfavorable
environment however can't rule out an isolated shower mainly near
the lake ontario shoreline Saturday night.

Better conditions exist Sunday for showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern great lakes as the upper level trough moves further east
across southern ontario province. The frontal boundary to our north
will sag southwestward moving across the north country and into
western ny by late Sunday afternoon. A weak gradient flow will also
result in a favorable environment for lake breeze development and a
southwest flow will cause dewpoints to reach the mid 60s by
afternoon. Instability will increase with SBCAPE around 400-800 j kg
expected by afternoon. The upper level wind field will be weak so
the probability for strong to severe thunderstorms is low. Best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon east
of lake erie and then across the region into Sunday evening as
activity that forms across the ontario pennisula moves eastward.

Temperatures will reach the 80s Sunday however with showers and a
possible thunderstorm around, temperatures will likely be a few
degrees cooler than Saturday.

The upper level trough will move into northern new england Sunday
night and showers and any thunderstorms will wane into the evening
hours. Upstream activity will also diminish as it moves eastward but
may produce additional showers across the forecase area with the
north country seeing the longest period of showers into Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A pair of frontal boundaries will quickly track across the forecast
area Monday into Tuesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The first frontal boundary will move through early Monday and will
provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm most likely south and
east of the both lakes where the best instability (300-500 j kg)
will be found across our cwa. Over the course of the day Monday, a
shortwave trough over central quebec will quickly track east towards
new england into Monday night. As it does so, it will send another
frontal boundary south across the lower lakes with a chance of
showers, possibly a few rumbles of thunder as it slips south through
the region. With its passage, any storms will quickly come to an end
with surface high pressure building at the surface and aloft over
new york state. Wednesday, surface high pressure slips off the
northeast coast with return southerly flow picking up and some sub
tropical moisture creeping into our forecast area with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week.

High temperatures will generally range from the u70's to l80's
inland away from the lakes for memorial day (lake temperatures: erie
51f and ontario 50f). Tuesday through Thursday, look for highs in
the 70's near 80f which will continue to be 5f-10f above normal for
late may(normal l70's for western and north central ny).

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure over our region late this afternoon will make its way
off the mid atlantic coast later tonight. This will keep fairVFR
conditions with light winds in place across our region... Although
some late night fog could produce a few hours of MVFR vsbys for
sites like kjhw and kelz.

Mid level ridging supporting the aforementioned surface high will
then support continuedVFR conditions through at least Friday
evening... Although a stray shower cannot be ruled out from kart to
the thousand islands region.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers or an isolated
thunderstorm.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR with some showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Tuesday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure in the vicinity of the lower great lakes late this
afternoon will slowly push off the mid atlantic coast tonight...

then will become anchored well offshore through much of the upcoming
holiday weekend. This will result in light to occasionally moderate
breezes through Friday night with insignificant waves.

As we make our way through Saturday... A weak cool frontal boundary
will sag south across lake ontario. This will encourage southwest
winds on lake ontario to shift to an easterly component while very
light winds will be found on lake erie.

While generally light winds will persist through the remainder of
the holiday weekend... There will be an increasing risk for
thunderstorms.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Hsk
long term... Ar
aviation... Rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 27 mi45 min S 5.1 G 5.1 58°F 1019.8 hPa46°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 36 mi45 min 71°F 1019.1 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi33 min SSW 8.9 G 13 78°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 38 mi45 min 61°F 1019.5 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 44 mi33 min S 8 G 14 77°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 48 mi45 min 1017.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 49 mi93 min SW 9.7 G 12 55°F 52°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (-1.7)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 49 mi33 min WSW 13 G 17 80°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi39 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds69°F46°F45%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14SW13SW9SW10SW7SW8S7SW7SW7S5S5S5SW11SW8SW9SW9SW10SW9SW11SW11SW11SW10SW11SW11
1 day agoSW5S10SW4CalmSW3CalmSW5SW5W5W4N7W5SW7SW6SW10SW14SW16SW14SW17SW12SW14SW12SW13SW14
2 days agoNE8NE7NE9E6E5CalmSE6SE12SE10
G17
SE11SE13SE8S5S7SW8SW11SW9SW10SW10SW8SW13SW11SW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.