Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:34PM Monday March 25, 2019 6:17 PM EDT (22:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 428 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Tonight..North winds less than 10 knots. Clear.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Clear.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Sunny.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely.
Friday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Friday night.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 32 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201903260315;;333958 FZUS51 KBUF 252028 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 428 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-260315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 252200
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
600 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure centered over the canadian prairies
will gradually build to the east across the great lakes region
through Wednesday. This will supply our region with a prolonged
period of fair dry weather with a slow warming trend throughout the
week.

Near term through Tuesday
The upper level pattern over north america features a deep low over
eastern canada with accompanying troughing and a cold NW flow
throughout much of the northeast us, while upstream ridging is found
from old mexico north across the plains, rockies, and well north
into the northwest territories. Further off the pacific coast, a
cutoff low can be found wandering off the ore coast.

The cold and dry airmass overhead with upstream ridging will ensure
clear skies through Tuesday, with cooler than normal temperatures.

At and near the surface, high pressure should MAX out overhead
tonight while the cold airmass slowly moves east. There may a few
cumulus clouds inland on Tuesday, but overall it should be another
sunny or mostly sunny day.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Little in the way of sensible weather is expected Tuesday night
through Wednesday night as an expansive area of high pressure
remains the dominant weather feature. This will maintain a period of
fair weather. Clear skies and light winds will lead to ideal
radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night with low temperatures
falling into the teens and lower 20s. The center of the high will
slowly drift off to the east Wednesday allowing a southerly return
flow to ramp up. This will allow for a warming trend with
temperatures recovering into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday,
with milder lows in the lower to mid 30s Wednesday night.

Weak height falls over the area late Thursday Thursday night will
ease a weakening front into the area. Moisture returning ahead of
the front will allow for a band of rain showers to pass across the
area with the front. Activity expected to be relatively light in
nature. Temperatures ahead of the boundary expected to remain on the
mild side Thursday with highs some 10-15 degrees above normal in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Friday through Monday
The bigger picture features a broadening trough center roughly over
the hudson bay and extending south across canada on Friday. A
weakening cold front will settle just south of the eastern great
lake, with zonal flow becoming established across the region. A few
showers will linger into very early Friday morning, mainly south of
the buffalo metro area (western southern tier). The weakening cold
frontal boundary will then stall just south of our region across
oh pa. Latest 12z 25 runs of the gfs ECMWF then quickly return this
feature as fast as it left Friday afternoon. Again, it will turn wet
with chances for showers blossoming late in the day. All aided by a
strengthening LLJ (40-50 knots)and isentropic lift as the warm front
arrives Friday evening into Friday night. Otherwise, in between the
shower activity a good portion of the day Friday will be largely
dry. Highs will only be a few degrees cooler as the airmass behind
the front isn't all that cold, upper 40s east of lake ontario and
low 50s elsewhere.

Friday night and Saturday, the warm front slowly lifts north of
western ny becoming oriented SW to NE just to the west of lake erie
and ontario. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave and surface reflection
will pull out of the colorado rockies and towards the lower lakes
overnight. With that said, another shortwave dropping down the
backside of the broader trough will begin to phase with the low
pulling out of colorado. Although, there still remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding timing track at this point which is highly
dependent on the exact positioning of the stalled warm front. If the
warm front does indeed sets up just to our west and across the black
river basin there is an increased risk of flooding east of lake
ontario. All driven by the warm temperatures, expected rainfall, and
snow melt. Have mentioned this in the hwo for the black river and
its tributaries from Friday through Sunday time frame.

Saturday night, low pressure lifts northeast of the lower great
lakes sending its trailing cold front into the region. Look for
widespread rain to transitions over to snow showers fairly rapidly
behind the cold front. There will also be the potential for some
accumulating snows, especially east of lake ontario as temperatures
fall off rapidly (h850 dropping to -10c to -12c) by Sunday morning.

Some additional snow showers will continue to be possible Sunday
with the core of the coldest air aloft moving though the region and
lingering synoptic moisture.

Sunday night, high pressure over the midwest builds east and into
the region with dry and cool conditions Monday. Look for highs to be
slightly below normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Surface high pressure with mainly clear skies will remain across
the region through Tuesday. WidespreadVFR conditions during the
entire TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night... MVFR with showers possible.

Friday... MainlyVFR, with a few showers.

Saturday... MVFR with showers possible.

Marine
Northerly flow will allow portions of the south shore of lake
ontario to experience a short period of small craft advisory
conditions overnight. Otherwise, a large area of high pressure
centered over the upper mississippi valley will gradually build
across the lower great lakes through Wednesday. This will encourage
generally light winds and negligible waves through the period.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for loz043-044.

Synopsis... Rsh zaff
near term... Apffel zaff
short term... Tma
long term... Ar
aviation... Apffel rsh zaff
marine... Rsh zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi30 min 35°F 34°F1022.2 hPa-14°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi36 min 36°F 1022.1 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi36 min 33°F 1021.8 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi78 min W 7 G 8.9 33°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi78 min N 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 1022.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Last
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SW6
G9
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G7
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G4
NE1
N3
N7
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N8
G12
N10
G13
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G13
NE10
G16
NE12
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NE8
G11
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G12
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N6
G12
NE9
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G13
NW10
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1 day
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SW18
G25
SW12
G21
SW11
G18
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G16
SW9
G12
S6
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G10
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ago
NW24
G29
NW22
G27
NW17
G22
NW16
G24
NW18
G25
W11
G15
NW14
NW17
G21
W12
G15
W10
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G14
W16
W11
G17
W8
G11
W10
W12
W12
G16
W10
G14
SW10
SW16
SW15
G21
SW15
G20
SW15
G21
SW17
G25

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi24 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds37°F7°F28%1022.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi25 minNNW 610.00 miFair36°F5°F27%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW10SW9SW9SW9NW5N9N7N8
G16
N6N12
G16
N11NE11NE10NE9NE12NE9NE7NE7N85N9
G14
NW11
G16
N10
1 day agoSW17
G24
SW18
G31
SW18
G22
SW16SW13SW14SW11SW11SW9SW9SW13SW10SW10SW12SW13SW14SW15SW15SW13
G21
SW13SW18
G25
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G25
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W13
2 days agoNW19
G27
NW19
G29
NW19
G29
NW17
G27
NW11NW10NW12
G19
NW12
G21
NW11
G22
NW14
G25
W8W10W10W8W8W10W11NW11W13
G18
W13
G19
SW16
G22
SW19
G24
SW17
G25
SW21
G29

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.