Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 9:00PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:11 AM EDT (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:31AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 146 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Clear.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning...then becoming partly Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Showers likely in the evening.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Saturday night.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 72 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201706220915;;621710 FZUS51 KBUF 220546 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 146 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-220915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221053
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
653 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will bring clear skies through the morning hours. A
warm front lifting across the region ahead of an area of low
pressure moving across central and eastern canada will usher in
warmer temperatures, along with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Activity will become more
widespread Thursday night into Friday, as tropical moisture surges
across the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler
temperatures, along with scattered showers return for the weekend,
as upper level troughing returns to the great lakes.

Near term through tonight
Clear skies prevail across much of the state this morning, thanks to
high pressure currently in place over western new york. Aside from
areas of valley fog, the forecast area will see a sunny start to the
day. The morning sunshine will give way to increasing clouds this
afternoon however, as the high moves off to the east and a warm
front shifts north across the region this afternoon. A few showers
and thunderstorms may accompany this front, though a fresh
southwesterly lake breeze and associated lake-shadowing should spare
much of metro buffalo from storms this afternoon.

In fact, the bulk of the activity should be focused across canada
and the north country, as guidance suggests that western new york
and the finger lakes should rapidly transition into the warm sector
of a developing low over the central great lakes. Nonetheless,
should the front set up a little farther south, areas south of lake
ontario may have a better chance of seeing convective activity,
especially tonight, and as such, have left a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast, especially given abundant upstream
moisture that will be surging northwards towards the area later
tonight.

The aforementioned warm frontal passage today will boost temperatures
above average this afternoon. As 850mb temps climb above +17c,
expect highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with cooler readings found
northeast of the lakes, thanks to a fresh southwesterly lake
breeze. As the forecast area transitions into the warm sector, and
moisture-rich air surges northwards across the region out of the
mississippi and ohio valleys, pushing dewpoints well into the 60s,
expect a muggy summer night, with lows not dropping below 70 across
the lake plains, and only dropping into the upper 60s across higher
terrain.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Very warm and humid conditons will be in place across western and
central ny Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect
building instability and an increase of synoptic scale forcing will
bring an increasing threat for heavy showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening hours. Southwest flow off the
lakes may try to limit convection across the niagara frontier and
near watertown, with the greatest coverage likely from the western
southern tier into the finger lakes and southern tug hill region.

Dewpoints 65-70 degrees will combine with temperatures climbing into
the upper 70s to mid 80s will make for very steamy conditions during
the day away from any cooling lake breezes or thunderstorm outflows.

Concerning severe potential, SBCAPE forecast 1000-3000 j kg (highest
east of lake breezes) and 30-35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear could
support a risk for strong to severe storms. SPC has included ny
within a marginal risk area for severe storms so have added wording
for gusty winds to higher thunderstorm pops. Heavy rain is also a
concern as GFS forecast pwat reaches 1.75-2 inches just ahead of the
front supporting heavy downpours with a few storms. Wpc has also
included much of ny within a marginal risk area for excessive
rainfall. Have added some enhanced wording to higher pops for heavy
rain within thunderstorms.

Friday night the cold front will sweep east across the area, with
showers and thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast by or
shortly after midnight. Cold air advection behind the front will
bring in a cooler and drier airmass with partial clearing developing
from northwest to southeast overnight. The drier airmass will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 60s on the lake plains and upper
50s across the higher terrain.

Saturday, a broad longwave trough will shift over the great lakes
brings cooler air aloft over western and central ny. This cool air
aloft will steepen low and mid level lapse rates to support diurnal
cumulus and a chance for some showers and possibly weak
thunderstorms well inland from developing lake shadows. A stiff
southwest flow off lake erie will converge with westerly flow over
lake ontario supporting the development of a lake breeze convergence
zone from niagara county east along the south shore of lake ontario
to oswego county. This band of convergence combined with the steep
lapse rates may support a few scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Continued cold air advection will
support more comfortable temperatures with highs in the low to mid
70s in most locations and some breezy winds. Any enhanced lake
breeze convection Saturday evening will end shortly after sunset
leaving partial clearing overnight. Expect the even drier airmass to
allow cool low temperatures in the mid 50s on the lake plains and
around 50 across the interior southern tier and lewis county.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
The longwave trough over the great lakes is forecast to remain in
place into at least next Tuesday and possibly even next Wednesday as
progression of the upper level flow pattern is stalled by a strong
high pressure area over the north atlantic. This pattern will
support several days of cooler temperatures will comfortable humidly
levels with daytime highs perhaps topping out within a few degrees
of the 70 degree mark. The trough axis is starting to look like it
may cross western and central ny on Monday which supports higher
end chance range pops. Otherwise, cool air aloft within the trough
will support a day-to-day threat of showers and possibly low topped
thunderstorms mainly inland of lake breezes. These showers and
thunderstorms will be further focused by any shortwaves rotating
around the mean trough. If this environment can be coupled with a
stout shortwave, would not rule out some small-hail producing storms
given the lower freezing level heights and steep lapse rates aloft,
especially if storms focus along a lake breeze boundary.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Clear skies will prevail through the morning hours, as high pressure
moves overhead the region. Mid high clouds will increase during the
afternoon hours, as a warm front lifts north across the region. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, as
the front moves across the region, mainly inland from the lakes.

Showers may linger along the front across lake ontario and the north
country overnight, as the front stalls over ontario province.

Overall though, conditions should remainVFR for most of the period,
with occasional period of MVFR conditions in -shra -tsra. Increasing
advection of deeper moisture into the area late tonight may drive
cigs down to MVFR across higher terrain of the southern tier,
however. In addition, a strengthening low level jet aloft may result
in llws later tonight, particularly across far western new york.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR MVFR with widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night...VFR MVFR with rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure will keep conditions tranquil on the lakes for much of
the day, with the exception of southwesterly lake breezes to around
15kts on the northeastern ends of the lakes this afternoon.

Southerly winds will freshen tonight as a warm front crosses the
region and low pressure develops over the central great lakes. This
will largely keep wave action confined to canadian waters however,
and the only serious threat for small craft advisory conditions will
not be until Friday night, when a cold front crossing the region
will bring cooler temperatures and fresh westerly flow that will
raise waves above 4-5 feet on the eastern end of lake ontario. The
fresh westerly flow and subsequent SCA conditions will likely
continue through the weekend, thanks to persistent upper level
troughing in place across the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi47 min S 6 G 7 65°F 1015.1 hPa56°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi47 min 66°F 1015.6 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi47 min 68°F 1015.3 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 25 mi71 min S 7 G 8.9 67°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi71 min SSE 6 G 9.9 66°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.4)
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi71 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 66°F1 ft1015.2 hPa (-0.1)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi71 min SSE 4.1 G 6 69°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 42 mi71 min E 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 64°F1014.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi77 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F55°F73%1015.6 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi78 minS 610.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1015 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW14
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2 days agoSW12SW13W14SW13SW12
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W9SW14W13SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.