Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:43PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:31 PM EDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:12AMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1004 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Some patchy fog late this morning, otherwise mostly Sunny.
Tonight..West winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers overnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Scattered Thunderstorms with a chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 51 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201905262100;;491396 FZUS51 KBUF 261404 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1004 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-262100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 262103
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
503 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A passing cold front will touch off a few spotty showers and
thunderstorms across the southern tier this afternoon... With fair
dry weather otherwise prevailing as surface high pressure builds
into the region behind the front. Dry and comfortable weather will
then persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend... Before a
wavy frontal boundary pushes into our region and brings a return to
unsettled weather for most if not all of the upcoming work week.

Near term through Monday
As of early afternoon some patchy (and at points locally dense) fog
is still stubbornly hanging on across eastern lake erie and right
along the immediate lake erie shoreline from buffalo to lackawanna...

for which a mention remains in both the forecast and a corresponding
nowcast. Otherwise the area is mostly quiet and dry aside from some
scattered convection over and west of the southern tier... With cloud
cover varying widely from partly sunny conditions across the southern
tier to mostly sunny skies elsewhere.

Through the rest of the afternoon... A weak cold frontal boundary will
continue to make its way southward across our region. The passage
of this boundary will remain mostly dry... Save for across the southern
tier where it (and the remains of a weakening MCS passing by mostly to
our south) will interact with somewhat deeper lingering moisture modest
diurnal instability and thus help to generate some scattered showers
and thunderstorms. North of this... Partly to mostly sunny skies and
dry weather will prevail. Otherwise we can expect a fairly comfortable
afternoon... With high temperatures mostly ranging in the lower
to mid 70s (with some upper 70s near 80 degree readings across
the genesee valley and finger lakes)... And dewpoints lowering
into the 50s following the frontal passage.

Tonight will be quiet and dry areawide as high pressure over
manitoba and the upper great lakes builds into the region behind the
weak cold front and provides further subsidence and drying... Which
should result in low clouds and fog being much less of an issue than
late last night. Coupled with skies becoming partly cloudy to mainly
clear areawide... The drier airmass and lightening winds should allow
for overnight lows to settle into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

For the memorial day holiday... The center of the surface ridge
will settle directly across southern ontario and quebec. While
a shortwave diving southeastward across quebec province will try to
push a very weak cold front through this ridge and into our
region... The lack of upper support and only limited moisture
accompanying this boundary will result in this generating little
more than some partial cloud cover across lake ontario and the north
country. Otherwise it will be a simply salubrious day with a fair
amount of sunshine only giving way to some increasing mid and high
clouds across far western new york late... And high temperatures
mostly peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s... Save for the south
shores of both lakes where an onshore flow off the chilly lake
waters will help to keep conditions notably cooler.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Monday night, a surface base ridge to our northeast will likely
keep the area precipitation free, at least for the first half
of the night. With that said, an advancing warm front will be in
the process of lifting to the northeast which with moisture
ramping up (pw values nearing 1.5 inches) will likely lead to
increasing chances for showers and or thunderstorm by daybreak
Tuesday. Showers and storms will continue for a significant
portion of the day Tuesday as a weak wave tracks across new york
state. With its passage late in the day evening, showers and
storms will decrease in coverage until the next stronger wave
arrives as we head into Wednesday, more on that a bit later.

Lows Monday night will have a wide range with upper 40s across
the north country to the mid and upper 50s south of lake
ontario. Highs Tuesday will follow a similar pattern with mid to
upper 60s east of lake ontario(a bit cooler)and upper 70s near
80f elsewhere.

Tuesday night, the next wave will quickly race out of the midwest
and track into s. Ontario on its way towards western quebec by
Wednesday. While it tracks ene it will nudge a warm front northward
and then send a prefrontal trough across the area on
Wednesday Wednesday evening. With ample moisture in place and
supporting 40-50 knot LLJ yet again its likely another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible some of which could be
strong to severe. Following the passage of this feature convective
chances should then tail off again to a degree Wednesday night.

Highs Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of this period with
temperatures pushing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tuesday
night will range from the mid and upper 50s across the north country
to lower 60s south of lake ontario. Wednesday night, lows areawide
will be in the 60s by day break Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The overall pattern over north america during this period will be
dominated by an anomalously deep and persistent closed low that will
be anchored in the vicinity of james bay. Interestingly... The return
interval for such a feature in that area at this time of year is
roughly once in a ten year period. The importance of this closed low
is that shortwaves rotating about its periphery will not only
produce times of unsettled weather during this period... But it will
also guarantee that we will not experience any true summer warmth
for the foreseeable future. The latter will due to the suppression
of the sub tropical ridge that typically resides over the deep south
at this time of year. Overall... Temperatures during this period
as we head into june will average within a couple degrees of normal.

Now some day to day details.

A mature storm system over the northern plains on Wednesday will
open up and eject energy out across the upper great lakes and mid
western states Wednesday night and early Thursday. As this energy
becomes entrained into the cyclonic flow in the northern branch... It
will slow the progress of a cold front that will be in process of
dropping south from georgian bay and lake huron. This will be
achieved by encouraging a wave or two to develop along the boundary.

In any case... The wavy frontal boundary is forecast to settle across
the lower great lakes Thursday afternoon and night. For what its
worth... The timing and evolution of this scenario looks more
realistic from the perspective of the ecmwf... But will rely more on
the ensembles for the resulting high chc to likely pops. Its not out
of the question that this event could yield an inch or more of rain
for parts of the region.

Confidence in the forecast for Friday is below normal... As there is
a large variance in the projected position of the aforementioned
frontal boundary between the medium range ensemble packages. Will
raise pops to slgt chc to cover this uncertainty... But am still
obviously heavily leaning towards an improving and mainly dry day.

High pressure should then build across the region Friday night and
Saturday... With fairly high confidence that fair dry weather can be
expected.

Another frontal boundary on Sunday should support at least the
chance for some showers to end the weekend.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
A weak cold front will finish slipping southward through the region
this afternoon and will pass through most of the area dry... Save for
the western southern tier where somewhat deeper moisture modest
instability and the lack of a cap will allow the front to generate
some scattered showers and thunderstorms with attendant brief
localized MVFR conditions. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail.

Tonight and Monday...VFR conditions and dry quiet weather should
prevail as high pressure builds southeastward and across our
region.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR with a chance of showers thunderstorms and
associated MVFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
Modest westerly winds (strongest across central and eastern portions
of lake ontario) will continue through the rest of this afternoon...

however conditions will remain well below advisory levels. Winds will
then veer to northwesterly and lighten tonight... Before turning more
northerly on Monday as the center of surface high pressure slides
into southern ontario and quebec.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then return Monday night
and Tuesday and last through most of the upcoming week as a wavy
frontal boundary pushes northward into the lower great lakes... With
the next chance for advisory-level southwesterlies appearing to arrive
between Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Ar
long term... Rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi43 min S 6 G 8.9 58°F1015.3 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi49 min 1014.7 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi49 min 1015.1 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi91 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 49°F1 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi91 min Calm G 0 64°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi91 min SW 11 G 15 58°F 1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 42 mi91 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 57°F 47°F1 ft1014.1 hPa (-0.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi37 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F68%1014.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi38 minNNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F52°F50%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
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SW7SW9SW13SW10SW13
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SW14SW14SW12SW14SW13SW12SW11SW10SW9SW10SW13SW11SW12SW11SW12SW11SW7
1 day agoSW11SW8SW7S4SW9S4S5S4SE5SE5E6SE6SE7SE6SE5SE3NE5E7SE76SW18
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2 days agoW23
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SW11SW9SW9NW14
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G17
SW13SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.