Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, NH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:10PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will build se of the waters tonight, then head farther E Tue. A low pres approaches the waters from the sw late Tue, lifting ne Tue night. High pres builds E over new england Wed and Thu, then se of the waters Fri and Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, NH
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location: 42.99, -71.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 212320
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
720 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

Synopsis
Dry and tranquil weather continues tonight. Rather cloudy skies
are anticipated Tuesday along with cooler temperatures. A warm
front will bring some showers to the region... Generally Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Mainly dry weather Wednesday through
Saturday. Moisture increases through the weekend with the best
chance of showers on Sunday. Much warmer Friday into the
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
7pm update...

overall, forecast remains on track. Both cloud cover and rain
activity is going to be very slow as the column is quite dry
even at this time. With light flow developing early, some
radiational cooling should allow temps to fall into the low 50s
before the cloud shield prevents further outgoing radiation.

Lowered mins a bit.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday and Tuesday night...

a rather cloudy day is on tap for Tuesday ahead of a warm
front. There appears to be enough forcing moisture along with a
modest low level jet for some showers Tuesday afternoon evening.

Not expecting a complete washout... But most locations should
see a period of wet weather during this time. There is even a
low risk for a rumble or two of thunder... Mainly near the south
coast with some marginal elevated instability. High temperatures
will be held in the upper 60s to around 70 in most locations
given the clouds along with the afternoon evening showers.

The bulk of the showers should come to an end Tuesday
evening... But a few will remain possible after midnight as a
weak cold front crosses the region. Clouds will probably hang
tough for most of the night and may see some fog develop given
ample low level moisture. This should hold overnight low
temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* a spot shower lingers Wednesday
* cool Thursday but much warmer into the weekend
* risk of showers increases by Sunday
overview...

through the mid term, the N stream dominates, mainly in the
form of a longwave trof settling across the maritimes which is
linked to a baffin sea vortex. However, with the mean trof axis
to the w, central CONUS ridging will lead to rising heights and
generally cyclonic flow through the latter half of the week. It
is not until the tropical disturbance in the gulf of mexico gets
caught up with shortwave energy moving out of the pacific that
there is a transition for new england. These impacts,
particularly with a plume of tropical moisture, could yield a
wet latter half of memorial day weekend. Overall, enough
agreement between guidance to use a consensus blend for this
forecast update.

Wed...

cold front slows as it begins to parallel mid lvl flow.

However, soundings support rapid influx of drier air through the
column, reducing pwats to below 1.00in by mid day. Although
this does steepen lapse rates, the overall lack of moisture may
limit convective potential. Near nil QPF supports this thinking.

Still enough to warrant at least slight chance pops. Delayed
cold advection suggests highs should reach the mid 70s to around
80, especially as some clearing is observed.

Thu through sat...

mainly dry thanks to implied ridging through mid and upper lvl
height rises and sfc high pres as a response. Thu looks to be
the coolest day, but with h85 temps avg around +8c, it still
should yield low 70s across much of the region. Milder Fri and
sat with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s thanks to a gradual
increase in mid lvl temps. These are best observed inland
however, as weak pres gradient suggests local sea breezes at
area coastlines.

Sun into early next week...

echo previous forecasters concern and lack of overall
confidence as guidance widely diverges during this period. This
is not surprising, as models often struggle with complex
tropical interactions. At odds for new england, is a resurgence
in N stream forcing trof out of the arctic with its sfc
response, a n-s moving cold front front which makes temperatures
rather uncertain. From the S stream, is tropical moisture plume
with pwats potentially reaching near 2.00 inches just to the s.

If this dominates a period of wet and very unsettled conditions
are possible, keeping the front to the n. For now, will lean
most heavily on ensemble means for this period as it takes into
account the potential solutions. This will come into focus
better as the feature players, particularly the tropical wave
become better sampled.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

tonight... High confidence.

Vfr. Winds becoming light and variable.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Moderate to high confidence. Mainly
vfr conditions into Tuesday afternoon. It probably will take
until evening especially along the coast for MVFR to localized
ifr ceilings and visibilities to arrive. These lower CIGS vsbys
will likely persist Tuesday night. Some showers expected
especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. A low risk for a
rumble or two of thunder mainly near the south coast tue
evening.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Still uncertainty though
in wind direction through 22z. Bos sea breeze kicked offshore as
of 19z... But still close enough where it needs to be watched for
another few hours.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

tonight through Tuesday night... High confidence. Weak pressure
gradient will keep winds and seas below small craft advisory
thresholds through Tuesday night. Biggest concern for mariners
will be the potential for some fog developing Tuesday night
along with the low risk for a rumble or two of thunder across
our southern waters.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday through Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank doody
near term... Frank doody
short term... Frank
long term... Doody
aviation... Frank doody
marine... Frank doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi83 min E 1.9 62°F 49°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi68 min S 6 G 7 59°F 1018.5 hPa (+1.5)51°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi50 min 68°F 1019 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 49 mi50 min WNW 5.1 G 6 63°F 55°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manchester Airport, NH4 mi75 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds74°F39°F29%1019.8 hPa
Concord Municipal Airport, NH16 mi77 minSW 310.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1019 hPa
Nashua - Boire Field Airport, NH16 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair65°F48°F54%1020.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA23 mi74 minW 310.00 miFair74°F42°F32%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from MHT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW7N5N8NW5NW4CalmCalmCalm45N8545N12
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1 day agoCalmS4S5S7S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3N3NE3CalmCalmNE3E4SE6E9SE10S9SE10E10E6E7E7SE6SE4CalmNE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Riverside, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Riverside
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Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.30.31.53.55.56.56.45.84.93.62.310.2-0.20.11.53.65.25.95.75.14.23

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimacport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Merrimacport
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     7.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     7.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.624.16.37.787.46.34.62.71.10-0.30.424.167.17.26.65.43.82.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.