Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cudahy, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:44PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:52 AM CDT (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:47AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 923 Am Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ645 Expires:201708212215;;726368 FZUS53 KMKX 211423 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 923 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-646-212215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cudahy, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 211506
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1006 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
Continued cloud top warming is evident on IR satellite as an
upstream MCS weakens over iowa. This is potentially good news for
would-be eclipse viewers. By no means will we be cloud-free, but
hopefully those pesky upper level clouds will thin enough to still
see some interesting effects from the partial eclipse.

The previously mentioned MCS has somewhat complicated the picture
for the potential for severe convection this evening. All these
clouds will really limit surface-based mixed-layer cape, but then
again, surface based convection was never really much of a
concern for southern wisconsin. At this point in time, it looks
like convection will break out this afternoon in northern
ia southern mn as an upper level trough moves into the region
before gradually pushing ese. Questions remain on exactly how
these storms will develop as the move toward our region, although
there has been a trend in some of the high-res models to push the
strongest storms just to our south where there will be better
mixed-layer cape.

All that said, elevated CAPE will still remain sufficiently high
through the evening to support at least isolated severe storms.

Moreover, 0-6 km shear will approach 40kts this evening as the
upper trough moves through the region, so I cannot rule out the
potential for a few storms to reach severe levels. One thing that
may help limit the severe potential is an extremely moist
atmosphere. Guidance is still pushing pws to around 2 inches this
evening, and while there is some anecdotal evidence that that much
moisture may diminish severe potential, this does obviously
elevate the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Marine
Prev discussion (issued 553 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017)
aviation(12z tafs)...

areas of fog around the area will lift by mid morning as southerly
flow increases a bit ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure. Southern wisconsin looks generally dry through the day,
although convection across iowa this morning is pushing into far
southwest wi and may clip areas south and west of madison before
diminishing later this morning.

Our main round of showers and storms will arrive this evening and
continue through the overnight hours. Once the fog lifts this
morning, we'll seeVFR conditions into tonight, dropping to MVFR
and possibly ifr CIGS vsbys as any strong storms move through.

There is a slight risk for severe storms tonight, with strong wind
and large hail the main threat.

Prev discussion... (issued 307 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017)
today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

The large convective complex across iowa is on the nose of the
low level jet. The hrrr seems to be doing a good job with it,
showing that the cold pool begins to dominate with propagation
vectors taking it east to southeast with time. Many of the lower
res models bring it into our western areas this morning, then wipe
it out diurnally as support fades. Additionally, there is a mid
level wave that will be exiting by midday, and the associated
subsidence should help to diminish any lingering activity. This
gives a little hope that we might see enough thinning of the cloud
cover to observe the partial eclipse around here.

We then will likely have to wait for the next round of convection
that will fire upstream of wisconsin this afternoon and evening.

These storms will be assisted by a decent mid level trough pushing
in, coupled with a strengthening surface trough and leading low
level jet. Soundings show plenty of cape, though it looks elevated
for much of the time. 0-6km shear is good at 30-40kts, even 50kts
for a time off the nam. Precipitable water values will be
approaching 2 inches, very high now for mid to late august. The
entire area is under a slight risk of severe storms.

By the time the convection gets into our area this evening, we
will likely be looking at primarily a wind and hail threat. Very
heavy rain is also likely where any storms merge or repeatedly
move over an area. Not unusual to see 2 to 3 inches in isolated
areas causing localized flooding in this type of airmass. The
heaviest rainfall should be west of madison, diminishing in the
east, due to a gradual diminishing in activity as we get into the
later overnight hours.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with trends during this
period. They show northwest flow at 500 mb over the region, with a
deep 500 mb low well to the northeast. At the surface, the cold
front will exit the area early on Tuesday, with strong cold air
advection in its wake into Tuesday night. High pressure then
slides southeast into the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Kept some pops for showers going in the morning, highest in the
southeast, as the front exits the area. Dewpoints may take awhile
to fall on Tuesday, until drier air works in for later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Breezy northwest winds are expected Tuesday.

Some cumulus development may occur or move into the area Tuesday,
with another round on Wednesday.

May also see more middle clouds and perhaps some showers for
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as a fairly strong 500 mb
shortwave trough slides southeast through the region. The
gfs canadian are similar, with the ECMWF slower and the nam
further to the east. Kept some pops in parts of the area for
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Temperatures look to be below seasonal normals by Tuesday night
and should linger into at least Thursday, with less humidity.

Thursday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models continue to keep the region in northwest flow at 500 mb
Thursday night into Friday night. High pressure at the surface
slowly moves off to the east during this time. This should keep
quiet weather going across the area. Temperatures will remain
below seasonal normals.

Models then generally show a 500 mb shortwave trough sliding east
across northern wisconsin Saturday, perhaps extending toward the
area. The ECMWF is the only model to bring QPF toward the area,
with the GFS canadian further to the northwest. Kept low pops in
the far north Saturday, but could remove if later forecasts
continue a dry trend.

Gfs ECMWF are then trying to bring an amplifying 500 mb trough
toward the region Sunday. The ECMWF brings QPF into the area with
some warm air moisture advection, with the GFS canadian keeping
this to the north and west of the area. Kept some pops in the area
for Sunday afternoon for now. Temperatures look to remain a bit
below seasonal normals into the weekend.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

light winds and ample moisture will lead to ifr MVFR vsbys around
southern wi this morning. It will lift by mid morning as the
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure. The area looks generally dry through the day, though
convection across iowa this morning could clip far southern wi
into the early afternoon.

Our main round of showers and storms will arrive this evening and
continue through the overnight hours. Once the fog lifts this
morning, we'll seeVFR conditions into tonight, dropping to MVFR
and possibly ifr CIGS vsbys as any strong storms move through.

There is a slight risk for severe storms tonight, with strong wind
and large hail the main threat.

Marine...

look for southerly winds today around 10kts. Winds will
eventually turn to the southwest and west later tonight as a
trough of low pressure moves through. West to northwest winds will
approach small craft advisory levels late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Tuesday morning, with quiet weather returning for the remainder
of the week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Bsh
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Tuesday through Sunday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi42 min NW 6 G 8 77°F
45013 12 mi73 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 71°F 69°F1017.9 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 29 mi72 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 73°F 1018.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi52 min W 9.9 G 14 77°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.0)
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 40 mi62 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 72°F1 ft1017.6 hPa (+0.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi72 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 76°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
S6
S4
S3
S2
S2
S1
S3
SE4
S2
E2
E4
SE3
SE5
SE6
SE5
SE5
G8
SE4
S6
S7
S9
SE6
G9
SE4
S7
S10
1 day
ago
W3
SW5
W6
W7
SW8
W8
SW6
SW5
S5
S8
S5
S5
S7
E3
S4
S4
S4
E4
SE2
S6
S6
G9
SE3
S5
S5
2 days
ago
W19
G23
W18
G22
W17
W15
W16
W12
G15
W9
W6
SW4
SW3
E1
S3
SE1
SE2
E3
E5
E4
NE2
NE1
NE4
N3
NE2
N3
--

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi60 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F69°F72%1017.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi59 minWNW 810.00 miFair78°F71°F79%1017.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI22 mi67 minW 610.00 miClear75°F66°F74%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrSW10SW10S8S6W6S6S8S6S4S4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3SW6W8
1 day agoN3CalmNW76W6N6W6SW8SW6SW5SW4SW4SW4S5S4SW5CalmSW3S3SW4SW4S5S8SW9
2 days agoNW12W11NW7W11NW12NW9
G18
W9W10W9NW8NW9W6NW5W5NW7NW9NW5W4NW5W5NW5NW3NW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.