Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 12:34 PM EDT (16:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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location: 43.02, -72.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 251348
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
948 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Coastal low pressure will bring moisture into the region today, with
scattered showers this morning becoming more widespread this
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be considerably cooler than
the past few days. The system will exit on Wednesday, but cloud
cover will linger. A dry and warm day is in store Thursday, before a
cold front brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 948 am edt, made some minor adjustments for the rest of
today, mainly to modify pops slightly and hourly temps based on
latest obs/trends. Steady light rain has expanded across much of
the region. Dry air in low levels making the radar seem more
robust than what is actually measuring though, so light rainfall
amounts expected through the morning hours. Latest hi-res
guidance and radar trends indicate a brief break in the steady
rain moving from south to north late this morning into the
afternoon. Difficult to time in grids though, as the next batch
of rain will quickly move northward during the afternoon as the
upper low and associated moisture feed drift north.

Vigorous upper low evident on water vapor near the sc/nc border
with its surface reflection analyzed near the outer banks. Deep
moisture is streaming northward in advance of these features,
a look at IR imagery and goes-16 low- level water vapor
indicates drier air from new jersey to the delmarva. As this
drier midlevel air tracks across our region, it should somewhat
limit rain coverage into the early afternoon. The exception
will be the easterly slopes of the catskills and higher terrain
of western new england, which should see persistent upslope.

Conversely, areas to the west of the higher terrain should see
some shadowing. H925 winds increase to 30-40 kt this afternoon,
so these areas can expect gusty winds of 30-35 kt at times. A
wind advisory is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored
should mixing be deeper than currently anticipated. With
persistent clouds and easterly flow, high temperatures will be
some 5-10 degrees below normal.

A stronger low/midlevel theta-e surge along a 40-45kt 850 mb jet
is anticipated roughly 21z today to 03z wed, which is expected
to result in a more steady period of precipitation for much of
our area. Again, the southeasterly flow will allow the terrain
to modulate the precip. The rainfall could be heavy at times
during this timeframe. Rainfall will taper off over the rest of
the night as drier midlevel air works into the region. All told,
the highest QPF of 1-1.4 inches is expected across the catskills
and higher terrain of western new england. The hudson valley can
expect 0.5 to 1.0 inches (highest south), while lowest amounts
of around a third of an inch are expected over the western
mohawk valley.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
Wednesday, the low will become stacked and slowly drift toward
around 40n/70w. While the day should be mostly dry with a weak
forcing for ascent, weak low-level winds will not allow for any
dry advection to take place, and thus a healthy amount of lower
cloud coverage should exist for much of the day. For this reason
have sided with the cooler met mos, which still brings highs up
toward seasonal normals. Could see some patchy fog Wednesday
night depending on whether the clouds clear. A mild night in
store with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

Thursday, brief upper ridging builds in as the coastal low moves
out. The leading edge of a deep longwave trough over the western
half of the country will pivot northeastward and become
negatively tilted. A surface low will track northward across the
western great lakes and into southern canada. We will be solidly
in the warm sector, but again cloud cover is a question. Large
spread in the high temperature forecast. Have again sided toward
cooler met MOS with expected slower clearing and light surface
flow with an easterly component. Still, h85 temps approach +15c,
so overachievement potential is there, and even the cool side of
the guidance envelope is well above normal. Thursday night, the
weakening cold front with the aforementioned surface low
approaches our area. Convergence along the front appears weak,
but low-amplitude waves in fast SW upper flow should augment
ascent. Some instability is present with steep midlevel lapse
rates, so thunder is possible. Coverage will be questionable
given overall weak forcing for ascent. Lows will once again be
very mild in the 50s.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
As we head into the weekend the longwave pattern will feature a
broad trough across much of the CONUS with ridging from over the
western atlantic. While at the surface, a cold front moving across
the area should become quasi-stationary across the region as we head
into the weekend. Where the boundary settles is highly uncertainty.

Guidance is in general agreement that as we head through the weekend
energy moving in on the west coast will dig/deepen the trough over
the plains with ridging building over the eastern united states and
western atlantic. This will provide the region with above normal
temperatures. The resultant low pressure system that forms over the
southern plains is expected to track northeastward into the great
lakes region causing the boundary stretched across our region to
lift northward as a warm front. The placement and timing of the
movement of the boundary is very uncertain.

The threat for showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected
to linger into Friday especially for the morning as cold front
moves across the region. The forecast will remain unsettled as
we have a boundary across the region and guidance indicates many
weak short waves moving through the flow. The better chances
for showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected Monday as
the deepening low pressure system moves across the great lakes
region with its trailing cold front on the approach from the west.

Above normal temperatures through the period with highs mainly from
the mid 60s to upper 70s with some lower 80s for Saturday.

Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/
A coastal low along the carolina coast will gradually move up the
coast through the TAF period reaching the DELMARVA tonight. The
air mass in place across the region started out very dry as
evident by the aly 00z/Monday upper air sounding. It's taking
time for the atmosphere to moisten. Clouds will continue to
lower through the morning int the afternoon with MVFR
conditions developing as steady rain develops. Conditions are
expected to lower ifr by late afternoon into the evening then
persisting for the overnight.

Light north to northeast winds early this morning. Winds will
shift to the northeast to east and increase in speed especially
across the higher terrain of western new england where gusts
into the teens and 20s are expected.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Rain showers will increase in coverage during the morning and
afternoon today, becoming widespread by the evening. A cool and
moist airmass will be in place today. Though Wednesday will be
nearly 10 degrees warmer, a few showers and plenty of clouds
will linger. Rh values will only fall into the 60 to 80 percent
range with light winds. It will become warmer and a bit drier on
Thursday with rh values falling to 50 to 60 percent. Winds will
once again be fairly light.

Hydrology
An approaching coastal low pressure system will allow isolated
to scattered rain showers this morning to become widespread by
the late afternoon and early evening, becoming locally heavy at
times. The rainfall will taper off overnight. A persistent
southeasterly flow will result in the heaviest rainfall totals
occurring along the eastern slopes of the catskills and greens
and the higher terrain of western new england, where 1-1.4
inches is expected. The hudson valley can expect 0.5 to 1.0
inches (highest south), while lowest amounts of around a third
of an inch are expected over the western mohawk valley. Some
minor river rises are possible, but river flooding is not
expected at this time.

Just a few lingering light showers are expected Wednesday, with
dry weather Thursday. An approaching cold front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible at times over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson/jpv
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Bgm/thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 88 mi124 min 49°F 1022 hPa47°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi40 minVar 5 G 1710.00 miLight Rain52°F42°F69%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr35W7--N74CalmNW34CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE12SE9SE9
G19
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1 day agoW53CalmW6S7W6W4SW3SE3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmN5
2 days agoW10
G16
NW8NW5NW5W6W7W4N6N3CalmNW6N6NW4NW3SW4CalmW3W3CalmNW3N4--N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 04:53 AM EDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.623.64.95.65.95.44.232.21.40.60.41.32.84.25.15.65.44.43.12.11.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:45 AM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.62.13.74.95.55.75.13.92.71.91.10.30.31.32.94.255.45.14.12.81.810.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.