Sunday, March26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:10PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:44 PM EDT (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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location: 43.02, -72.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 270000
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
800 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

A warm front will approach from the eastern great lakes
region and pennsylvania bringing periods of rain and some freezing
rain to the region tonight. The warm front will move through
tomorrow with low pressure moving north of the saint lawrence river
valley, as the periods of rain will taper to scattered showers by
the early evening with temperatures moderating closer to normal
levels. Another disturbance will approach from the south and west
with more showers for Tuesday before high pressure builds in for the
mid week with drier weather.

Near term /through Monday/
Freezing rain advisory is in effect from 8 pm edt to 5 am edt
for the eastern catskills of western greene and western ulster

a freezing rain advisory is in effect for the adirondacks of
hamilton, northern warren and northern fulton counties, as well
as southeast warren and northern saratoga counties in the lake
george region...

freezing rain advisory is in effect for southern vt, the
berkshires, and northern litchfield county ct from 8 pm edt to 8
am edt... .

As of 800 pm edt, generally dry but cloudy conditions occurring
across the region early this evening. A few showers will be
exiting eastern windham county in southern vermont within the
next hour or so. Latest hi-res guidance indicating a period of
dry weather persisting through much of the evening, so have
removed mention of pops for the next few hours. The next round
of precip is expected to move in after midnight from west to
east. No changes to current headlines at this time.

Then more pronounced isentropic lift and moisture arrives
overnight into tomorrow morning as the surface warm front moves
into the area. Low level jet magnitudes increase to greater than
35kts which continues the warm advection regime. However, for
portions of the high terrain including the southern greens,
berkshires, northern litchfield, southern adirondacks and
catskills, the colder air may linger a bit longer. So have
decided to issue a new freezing rain advisory for the
catskills/berkshires/n. Litchfield as well as extend the
advisories for the southern adirondacks/southern greens. Some
locations in the southern greens/adirondacks could see a tenth
to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation into Monday morning.

In lower elevations where rainfall will be prominent, total qpf
amounts up to three-quarters of an inch are possible.

Precipitation should start to taper off late Monday afternoon
from southwest to northeast as the upper level low lifts into
new england. Brief period of dry weather and ridging builds in
behind it.

Temperatures overnight tonight will remain fairly steady in the mid
30s in most valley locations from around i-90 southward, with
the exception of high terrain locations staying near or below
freezing. Warm air advection then kicks in allowing for
temperatures to gradually warm throughout the remainder of the
day Monday. Afternoon high temperatures should warm into the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/
Mon night... The forecast area gets into a warm sector with the
warm front lifting north into northern new england, and the mid
level short-wave trough shifting downstream. Some lingering
light rain showers or drizzle may linger in the warm sector.

There is not that much synoptic forcing for the overnight period
with weak/flat mid level ridging briefly building in ahead of
the next disturbance approaching in southwest flow. The gfs/nam
still disagree with the latest ECMWF in terms of the approach of
the next short-wave. The NAM and GFS are further north, while
the ECMWF has the short-wave /an old convective complex/ further
south. Overall, a cloudy and rather mild overnight period is
expected with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy fog
is also possible due to the melting snow and abundant moisture
in the boundary layer.

Tue-tue night... The aforementioned short-wave is approaching
with a cold front dipping south/southeast from the st lawrence
river valley. This is a low confidence forecast here, but it
looks like the sfc wave should move along the boundary with
another period of rainfall late Tue morning into the afternoon.

There is a chance most of the rain could miss the northern half
of the forecast area if the wave stays farther south like the
ec. Pwats will still be in the three quarters of an inch to inch
range which is 1 to 2+ standard deviations above normal based on
the latest 12z gefs. Also, the 12z NAM is indicating some
elevated instability ahead of the front and sfc wave especially
south of the capital region. Showalter stability indices are in
the 0 to -2c range, and we placed a slight chc of thunderstorms
in for the southern 3 zones of ulster/dutchess/litchfield
counties for now. The cold front should pull east early in the
evening for colder air to filter in. This will slow down the
runoff from the additional quarter to half an inch of qpf
coupled with snowmelt. Highs on Tue are tricky due to the amount
of clouds, but h850 temps could be +4 to +7c across the region
with the west to southwest flow. Highs will be mainly in the 50s
on Tue with some upper 50s in the mid-hudson valley, and some
upper 40s over the adirondack park. As the colder air filters in
behind the front, then some scattered snow showers are possible
over the higher terrain with light snow accums of a coating to
a few tenths of an inch especially over the southern
adirondacks, eastern catskills and southern greens. H850 temps
fall into the 0c to -10c range from the capital region/southern
vt north and west. Lows will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s
north and west of the tri cities... And mid and upper 30s south
and east.

Wed-wed night... A drying trend for the region with cyclonic flow
persisting during the day with cool,and breezy conditions. Some
isolated upslope snow/rain showers or flurries/sprinkles are
possible over the adirondacks/southern greens. Most the region
will be dry with partly sunny conditions due to stratocu with
the cold pool to the trough. Good mixing will still allow temps
to get into mid 40s to lower 50s in most of the valleys, and mid
30s to lower 40s over the hills and mountains. High pressure
builds in from south of james bay with fair and cold conditions.

Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with a few teens over the
adirondack park.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/
The period starts out on Thursday with a sprawling ridge of high
pressure in place extending all the way from quebec southward to the
southeast u.S. Coast. This should result in seasonable temperatures,
relatively light winds and a decent amount of sunshine. Thursday
looks to be the most pleasant weather day of the period, as models
(cmc/gfs/ecmwf) are in better agreement with tracking a complex
storm system across our region Friday through Saturday.

Thursday night should be mainly dry, although precip may be close to
our western border by Friday morning. Precip expected to develop
from west to east during the day Friday, as isentropic lift
increases well north an east of the parent storm located over the
midwest. Precip looks to be most widespread Friday night into the
first half of Saturday, as forcing strengthens along with a moist
easterly fetch and a double-barrel low moving eastward across the
region. Some model differences in the track of the primary low, but
there is a signal for a dominant secondary cyclone emerging off the
mid atlantic coast, just south of long island and southern new
england Friday night into early Saturday.

Thermal profiles based on forecast soundings may actually be cold
enough for snow at times, especially during diurnally favored times
of late night and early morning, and most favored across the higher
terrain. There is high enough confidence now to mention likely pops
Friday night into early Saturday morning due, with chance pops
lingering well into Saturday as the storm gradually moves eastward
across the area.

Widespread precip should taper off to scattered rain/snow showers
Saturday night, with dry conditions returning Sunday as higher
pressure builds in from the west.

Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/
Showers have ended across the area, and dry conditions should
persist through the rest of the evening for the
kalb/kpou/kgfl/kpsf terminals. Conditions generallyVFR to
borderline MVFR due to CIGS in the 2500-3500 ft agl range. Cigs
are expected to gradually lowering overnight, as the next batch
of precipitation moves in from the west after midnight.

Expecting surface temperatures to be cold enough for freezing
rain initially at kgfl/kpsf, with plain rain at kalb/kpou.

Freezing rain should change to rain by around 09z-11z Monday.

Flying conditions will be poor once the precip commences,
deteriorating to ifr.

Ifr conditions expected to prevail for much of the day Monday,
although some improvement to MVFR is possible later in the
afternoon after the steady rainfall ends, especially at
kalb/kgfl. However, ifr may prevail through 00z Tuesday at

Some low level wind shear will occur at kpsf/kpou starting
around 11z or 12z, as a southerly low level jet moves overhead.

The llws will likely end by early afternoon as the jet pushes
east of the region.

Winds will be light and variable this evening, becoming
east-southeast around 5-10 kt overnight into Monday morning.

Winds will shift to the south Monday afternoon.


Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Fg.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Fire weather
The snow pack remains in place across most of eastern new york
and western new england. Some melting has occurred for some bare
spots in the valley areas. A pair of systems will bring mainly
rainfall to the region tonight through Tuesday. Some freezing
rain is possible over the elevated terrain tonight. Colder
temperatures return Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

A cooler and drier air mass builds in for the mid week.

An unsettled weather pattern will impact the hydro service area
the tonight into Tuesday evening.

A warm front and low pressure system will bring a mixture of
rain and freezing rain tonight transitioning to plain rain for
the entire region by tomorrow. Total rainfall from this system
will be in the half an inch to inch range with some locally
higher amounts. Snow melt is likely as the milder air mass
builds in tomorrow. Another system will bring more rain on
Tuesday, before the cold front moves through Tuesday night with
colder and drier air returning for the mid week. The total
rainfall Tuesday to Tuesday night will generally be in the
quarter to half an inch range with a few localized higher
amounts. Some significant snow melt is possible, but the runoff
should slow up Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the snow pack
should absorb the rain over the northern basins and higher

The latest nerfc forecast hydrographs have a few points getting
into the ALERT or action stage tue-wed, but no flooding is
forecast at this time.

Also, the latest mmefs forecasts indicate a few locations going
into action stage early next week, but confidence is not high
for potential of any flooding at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... Freezing rain advisory until 8 am edt Monday for ctz001.

Ny... Freezing rain advisory until 5 am edt Monday for nyz058-063.

Freezing rain advisory until 2 am edt Monday for nyz033-041-

Ma... Freezing rain advisory until 8 am edt Monday for maz001-025.

Vt... Freezing rain advisory until 8 am edt Monday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Bgm/jpv/jvm
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Bgm/wasula
hydrology... Bgm/wasula

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 88 mi74 min 37°F 1029 hPa34°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi50 minSE 410.00 miOvercast36°F28°F73%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmS3Calm4SE5SE6SE8SE10SE10SE13
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3CalmS3N4SE7CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmNW3CalmCalmN6NW3CalmW4CalmCalm
2 days agoS4SW4SE3CalmE7SE3Calm334CalmS34S13

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 04:35 AM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.