Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:18 PM   Moonset 4:12 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 945 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon - .
Rest of tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. A chance of showers this evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with showers in the morning, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon.Friday night - West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 190001 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 801 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain tonight as a cold front tracks through the region. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend.

AVIATION

Increasing high clouds downstream of an inbound cold front precede the arrival of MVFR CIGS and light rain showers between 04Z-06Z. A period of heavier showers move in around 07Z and last for a 2-3 hour period. During this time, scattered IFR ceilings will be possible, especially from KPTK and north. There also remains a low probability for thunderstorms across the southern terminals, but the isolated nature and low confidence precludes mention at this time. Winds generally out of the east-southeast this evening will turn northwest late tonight and then out of the W by around 12Z tomorrow morning in the wake of the front. VFR conditions will follow the frontal passage as the westerly winds usher in drier air.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft after 04z-06z tonight.

* Low for thunderstorms tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 356 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

Low and mid level ridging entrenched locally late this afternoon, immediately downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls emanating off a closed mid level circulation pivoting into western Ontario. Active southern stream pv and upper jet energy undercutting this height fall gradient will prompt a respectable low and mid level response offering an axis of meaningful northward moisture transport within the background ongoing warm air advection. This process occurs as the associated surface reflection and attendant frontal boundary migrate across lower Michigan tonight. Ongoing higher based isentropic ascent currently offering some thicker cirrus with a representative signal of virga/sprinkles across the Saginaw valley, but limited moisture quality or supportive ascent lends to otherwise dry conditions holding this evening. Peak in both upward vertical motion and theta-e quality occurs over roughly a 6 hour window from 04z to 10z as fgen strengthens along the northwest flank of the passing surface low. This will support a high coverage of rain within this window, with some elevated thunder potential given the magnitude of theta-e advection. Rainfall totals from one quarter to one half inch remain on track.

Aforementioned closed low remains a fixture Friday and Saturday as it slowly migrates across central Ontario. Modest height falls within the post-frontal environment nets an associated cooling trend this period. Weak advective process initially leaves highs solidly in the 50s Friday. A secondary frontal passage Friday night offers a reinforcing shot of colder air with a more noteworthy downward adjustment for Saturday with highs upper 40s/lower 50s. Firm pressure gradient with sufficient wind magnitude affords a standard increase in gustiness of west winds with daytime heating both days.
Dry conditions hold this period as moisture depth remains too limited to generate anything outside of a broader stratocu field within weakly cyclonic mid level flow. Dry and seasonable conditions remain through the end of the weekend. Brief recovery of mid level heights then brings a modest warming trend heading into early next week.

MARINE...

A cold front sags south through the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday morning bringing widespread showers as well as a slight chance for a couple nonsevere thunderstorms over the southern lakes.
Upper level troughing expands over the Great Lakes following the frontal passage allowing a cooler airmass to settle over the region through this weekend. A destabilizing overlake thermal profile supports moderate west to northwest flow for this timeframe as peak gusts over northern Lake Huron top out in the 25-30kt range, with 20- 25kts generally favored over the remainder of the area.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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