Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:55PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:16AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 950 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201705222130;;027900 FZUS53 KDTX 221350 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 950 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ443-222130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221633
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1233 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Aviation
A pocket of dry air will bring clear sky to scattered cloud
conditions through the remainder of the afternoon. That will leave
the gusty southwest wind as the most significant aviation condition
until early evening. The gust component will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating while light gradient wind continues through the
night. A noticeable increase in mid clouds is expected during the
evening associated with low pressure moving through the border
region of iowa/wisconsin/illinois. Some high based showers are
projected by most model solutions to move across SE michigan mainly
affecting the fnt to mbs area with someVFR rainfall. Upstream
observations also indicate some lightning over iowa during the late
morning in support of some of the models with greater rainfall
intensity over lower michigan tonight. The forecast approach for now
will be to carry a tempo group forVFR light rain at mbs and monitor
trends for coverage and intensity in later updates.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 am edt Mon may 22 2017
discussion...

weak longwave pattern setting up across north america this week with
models forecasting all jet streaks to be fairly compact and stay
below 100 knots. With the lack of flow, it will be hard to displace
the current trough in place centered over the midwest. The slow
evolution of the trough will lead to a fairly dismal forecast with
plenty of clouds and periodic showers through most of the week.

Today will be possibly the driest day in the forecast as shortwave
ridge develops over the region in response to the upper low
fracturing. Half of the energy embedded in the upper low will shear
off to the northeast while the second half gets drawn southward,
phasing with an incoming jet streak which relocates the upper low
over the mid mississippi valley by Wednesday. This then places SE mi
in a region of SW flow down stream of the trough which will direct
several pieces of energy into the region mid week. Hard to determine
extent or converge of these weak impulses this far out, but
confidence is higher during the Wednesday night period as a stronger
lobe of vorticity rotates around the low up into southern mi with an
associated surface reflection. Otherwise look for chance pops most
of the week with the best chance of a dry day coming on Friday as a
mid level ridge slides across mi. The upcoming holiday weekend is in
limbo as models try to hold a ridge over the area but also start
bringing the next low up into the ohio valley with troughing laid
out across the western great lakes.

A few more notes about today. The daytime hours will be breezy with
west-southwest winds gusting to near 30 mph. Mixing depths up to
around 4-5k ft may tap into winds around 30 knots. Deep layer winds
averaging the mid teens will keep sustained winds elevated
regardless with higher gusts coming in the afternoon. Heading into
tonight we will introduce the next chance of precipitation as the
nose of theta E plume lifts into the area, likely after 06z. There
remains an opportunity for a few elevated thunderstorms but weak
cape will make it hard to get much coverage until Tuesday when
better low level lapse rates and elevated instability sets up.

Marine...

gradient will strengthen today in response to low pressure tracking
north of lake superior. This will bring a corresponding increase in
southwest wind across local marine areas today. Gusts to 25 knots
are forecast to impact much of the nearshore waters, including
saginaw bay. A small craft advisory is now in effect. Winds will
ease after sunset, with a period of more modest south to southeast
wind developing for tonight and Tuesday. Conditions will become
increasingly unsettled during the midweek period, as low pressure
sinks into the region. This may result in a period of stronger
easterly winds on Wednesday. In addition, the potential will exist
for bouts of showers with some thunderstorms.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi59 min W 11 G 18 58°F 1014.5 hPa41°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi59 min 59°F 1014.6 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi95 min WSW 13 G 22 56°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 30 mi59 min 57°F 1015.6 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi95 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 41°F1 ft1014.3 hPa (-0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi95 min WSW 13 G 20 58°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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E7
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G25
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N14
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NE8
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E12
G16
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G23
SE16
SE16
E10
G14
SE14
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Clair County International, MI13 mi59 minSW 8 G 1810.00 miOvercast59°F41°F51%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S66S6SE6SW8SW5W11
G17
W6W4CalmW6W6W5W7W12
G17
W12
G18
W9SW7
G16
SW8W11
G23
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SW12
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1 day agoSE13
G16
SE14SE10S9SE8
G16
E7E7E9E9E9E11E10E8E10N5E6E7E6SE5SE5SE6SE9SE9S8
2 days agoNE11N12NE11N12N10N12NE13N10N8--N7N10N7N7N7N8NE11NE10E16
G20
E12E8E11E9SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.