Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:09PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:34 AM EST (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 1004 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight...then veering to the west early in the morning. Areas of fog early in the evening. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms and light snow showers in the morning. Light showers. Light snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201802202215;;270064 FZUS53 KDTX 201504 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1004 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-202215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201046
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
546 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Aviation
Constant stream of very moist air will continue to stream northeast
through the area into tonight. This will maintain fairly steady
rainfall throughout the day into tonight. However, the i-94
terminals may only get brushed by the southern edge of this plume at
times. Ceilings visibilities have been quite variable and will most
likely continue to be. In general, expect MVFR to lowerVFR CIGS and
vsbys with occasional ifr in heaviest pockets of rain (and also in
patchy fog early in the forecast). Embedded thunder remains a
concern, but timing is too uncertain to pin down (and probably
better handled by shorter term amendments).

For dtw... CIGS vsbys will fluctuate today into tonight as terminal
goes in and out of rain, but generally expect MVFR lowerVFR. The
lowest CIGS will most likely come tonight as plume of deep moisture
and rain settles through terminals as cold front begins to sink
southeast through lower michigan.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings 5000 feet today, high tonight.

* low for thunderstorms impacting terminal today

Prev discussion
Issued at 327 am est Tue feb 20 2018
discussion...

the flood watch continues for all of southeast mi today through
Wednesday afternoon for the long duration rainfall event that is
ongoing. Rainfall totals on Monday were largely in the 0.25 to 0.75
inch range across the area which is very close to forecast. This
adds confidence going forward with the event totals around 1-3
inches by Wednesday afternoon. The one area I think may be overdone
is the far south (lenawee, monroe, and maybe into southern wayne) as
bulk of the moisture today looks to be lining up to the north, which
would really cut into amounts. They will be left in the watch as
rain could easily fill back in or drift back south today, in
addition to all the rain upcoming Tuesday night into Wednesday
across the eastern cwa.

Models have changed little over the last 24 hours with the deep
trough over the western CONUS now releasing a strong but sheared
vort MAX up through the midwest. This is driving the surface low to
lift up into northern mi this morning which in turn is pulling the
surface warm front, that stalled across the saginaw valley
overnight, up north of the area today. The northward shift of the
warm sector will bring additional warmth and moisture into the
region today. The 00z dtx sounding Monday evening already showed
pwats of 1.25 inches, with a further increase on the way. Spc
mesoscale analysis data supports model output showing 1.4 inch
readings on the way today. In addition, surface dewpoints as of 3am
were already in the mid 50s and will stay there through the day.

Strength of the low level jet (~60 knots) and upper levels (>150
knots) are both very potent and will aid in moisture advection and
dynamic forcing for the system. Marginal mid level lapse rates and
showalter indices between 0-2c will both warrant the mention of
thunder in the forecast.

Once the surface low tracks northeast this evening, we'll be left
with the still active trailing cold front draped down through lower
mi. A series of shortwave impulses will lift up along the boundary
resulting in continued chances of heavy rainfall through the
overnight. A strong and cold arctic high building across the plains
and midwest will then give the front a boost east allowing it to
finally work east of the region Wednesday. Some adjustments to
rainfall amounts remain possible and likely as the fgen and moisture
convergence shows itself better and how tight it may contract.

Current regional radar loop already shows some contraction of the
rain band further south and west which would pull the area of rain
to the north, possibly creating a longer period of light rain,
or lull, south of i94 today. Something to keep an eye on.

1040mb high will slide over the great lakes by Wednesday evening
bringing a much needed drying trend to the forecast through
Thursday. Temperatures will take a big hit as the cold front moves
through. Possible record highs today (low mid 60s) will give way to
highs near 40 on Wednesday (higher across the SE with a later
frontal passage) and upper 30s on Thursday. Still above normal for
late feb but still a notable 20+ degree drop. Temps will then hover
in the low mid 40s heading into the weekend. Precip chances will
return Friday as the western trough releases the next strong wave.

Mostly dry on Saturday before the next wave approaches for Sunday.

Marine...

a warm front will resume its trek north today after stalling near
saginaw bay late Monday. Moderate easterly flow with gusts of 20 to
25 knots will persist early this morning over northern lake huron,
but expect the south to southwest winds in the wake of this front to
spread north over much of northern lake huron. Stable conditions
within this mild southerly surge will limit gusts to 20 to 25 knots
today into tonight. Low pressure will move along the front and north
of the great lakes tonight with a trailing cold front dropping south
through the area late tonight into Wednesday. Instability will
increase somewhat in this colder flow, so gusts will approach 30
knots over northern lake huron on Wednesday. High pressure will then
settle overhead by Wednesday night bringing a decrease in winds.

Hydrology...

low pressure will approach from the southwest with moist south to
southwest flow persisting in advance of this feature. Precipitable
water values will remain high, on the order of 1.25 inches, within
this ridge of high theta-e air. Numerous rounds of rain, some of
which will be heavy, can be expected as this low ejects into the
region today into tonight. Embedded thunderstorms will also bring
locally enhanced rainfall rates to some areas.

Once this low crosses northern lower michigan into ontario late
tonight into early Wednesday, a cold front will drop southeast
through the area, focusing additional rainfall into the first part
of Wednesday. Precipitation will then end by Wednesday afternoon.

All told, expect total rainfall in excess of 2 inches over a wide
swath of the region with some areas most likely topping 3 inches by
Wednesday morning.

This heavy rainfall will cause considerable ponding of water in low
lying and poorly drained areas. Sharp rises in area rivers and
streams will also occur with a number of rivers likely reaching
flood stage later today into Wednesday. The mild temperatures, along
with the substantial runoff into rivers, may also lead to some
degree of ice breakup which could potential exacerbate flooding in
localized spots.

Climate...

record high temperatures will be possible across much of southeast
michigan today. Here is a look at record high temperatures for
Tuesday, february 20th:
detroit 63 (2016)
flint 61 (1930)
saginaw 62 (1930)
with the high moisture content, there is also a good chance to break
the records for warmest lows february 20th:
detroit 47 (1930)
flint 45 (1930)
saginaw 46 (1930)

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
climate... ... Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi46 min SSW 8 G 12 53°F 1014.1 hPa52°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi46 min 51°F 1014.3 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi34 min S 13 G 15 40°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 30 mi46 min 49°F 1014.9 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi34 min SSW 11 G 18 57°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi39 minS 97.00 miLight Rain54°F51°F94%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmE4E4E3CalmCalmCalmSW13SW10SW9SW9SW8S8SW5SW15
G21
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1 day agoCalmSE10S12S14S15S12S13S8SE6SE5SE10SE9SE9SE8S10SE4SE7SE8S5SE4SE5SE8S7SE4
2 days agoS10S11S9SW13SW9SW7S9S8S9S8SW7W5W4SW3CalmW7SW5SW7W6W4SW3W3W4W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.