Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:58PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:27AMMoonset 11:57AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 407 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201905270330;;505291 FZUS53 KDTX 262007 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-270330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261957
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
357 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Discussion
Bands of showers with scattered thunderstorms in progress across the
area south of i-69 are supported by the frontal zone that has been
nearly stalled over south sections of the region since this morning.

The entrance region of the upper jet over the central great lakes,
connected to the MCV remnants over the ohio valley, provided the
background larger scale forcing for convection with a strong mid
level fgen signal indicated in 850-700 mb model theta-e over southern
lower michigan. This favored mostly elevated showers and thunderstorms
during the morning through mid afternoon with cooler outflow helping
nudge the surface front farther south to the ohio border where
surface based convection became favored. Outside of the rain areas,
extensive cloud cover has limited surface based instability to less
than 1500 j kg and MLCAPE to less than 1000 j kg within a weakening
wind profile. Other than some potential for locally heavy rainfall,
which has been manageable so far, just backed surface wind near the
front and along the lakeshores has been about the only concerning
aspect of the storm environment. This generally remains the case
until the frontal support moves south east of the border by early
evening.

The upper level jet MAX and MCV short wave connection supporting the
pattern today moves eastward tonight and leaves still fast but
increasingly confluent flow aloft over the western and central great
lakes. This helps build surface high pressure southward across lower
michigan and push the front more convincingly into the ohio valley.

Surface dewpoint is already settling into the upper 40s to lower 50s
in the saginaw valley and northern thumb and set to drop farther into
the 40s late tonight as a measure of the air mass change. The
incoming high pressure also promotes a clearing trend overnight
through Monday morning with some radiational cooling helping low
temps reach the mid 40s thumb to lower 50s detroit metro. Fog
potential is reduced by surface dry advection through the night.

Memorial day turns out ok as a cool morning becomes a mild afternoon
with increasing high clouds. Light easterly onshore wind limits
temperatures to the 50s along the lake huron shoreline but highs in
the lower 70s are reachable inland across the area. The increasing
high clouds are a precursor to another round of unsettled weather
arriving Monday night into Tuesday driven by the next low pressure
system in the plains that reinvigorates the ohio valley front.

Powerful nocturnal low level jet development is projected to drive
multiple convective complexes from the midwest into lower michigan
on a plume of high end moisture transport. The convection will be
elevated as the surface front trails to the west and south through
Tuesday morning, however the potential for heavy rainfall will be as
much in play as allowed by the predictability of convection.

Confidence is reasonable enough at this stage of the forecast to
include a mention of flooding potential in the hwo and maintain a
mention in the remainder of the messaging suite for Monday night and
Tuesday.

The extended forecast period will be characterized by seasonable
temperatures and additional episodes of active weather. Strong
height falls seen in previous model runs now look to hold off across
the region until possibly Thursday, but still a good chance for
showers and storms Wednesday as shortwave energy and possible
convective remnants ripple over a west-east oriented frontal
boundary. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week for most
with highs in the mid to upper 70s as warm air is advected in from
the southwest, especially in the southern counties.

An upper trough will deepen over the great lakes on Thursday,
leading to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may be strong given slightly higher shear over the area and
better forcing focus along a cold front. High pressure then builds
in, leading to quiet and dry weather for Friday and much of
Saturday. More active weather then returns for the late weekend as
longwave troughing expands overhead and a cold front pushes through.

Marine
Current thunderstorm threat across lakes erie and st clair will wind
down this evening with high pressure then settling across the great
lakes. Light northerly winds will become northeast by Monday morning
persisting through the day. The threat of thunderstorms returns
Monday evening with additional thunderstorm chances both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Light to moderate winds prevail throughout this time with
seasonable significant wave heights under 3 feet.

Hydrology
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the region
through the coming week. First an organized mid-level wave will
transit the central great lakes region late Monday bringing showers
and thunderstorms during Monday night. There is some potential for
this activity to organize into a band of moderate to heavy rain
capable of producing basin average rainfall totals of at least one
half inch.

A low pressure system will then set up over the central plains early
in the week with the associated warm front laying out somewhere near
the mi oh border. Several clusters of storms will likely eject out
of the low and track along this front through the middle of the week
possibly passing over southern mi before the low itself then tracks
through the great lakes.

Prev discussion
Issued at 143 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
aviation...

showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the region from
ptk southward through the late afternoon as a slow moving front
drifts southward toward the ohio border. Additionally, a shortwave
is tracking eastward along the state line which will add to the
convective potential of the afternoon. Expect a generous coverage of
showers with embedded thunderstorms for the next few hours before the
forcing exits the area and high pressure builds southward through
all of SE mi. Winds are generally out of the northeast but speeds at
or below 5 knots are leading to variable winds at times. Skies will
clear rapidly into the overnight with light easterly winds
prevailing.

For dtw... MVFR CIGS will start the TAF period but will quickly lift
toVFR later this afternoon and through the overnight once the
showers moves off to the east. Thunderstorms expected mainly between
18-21z with some lingering showers possible for an hour or two after
that.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft through 21z.

* moderate for tstorms in kdtw airspace.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Bt tf
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi47 min NNE 6 G 7 53°F 1017.4 hPa48°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi47 min 60°F 1017.2 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi59 min N 5.1 G 5.1 52°F 1036.2 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 30 mi47 min 62°F 51°F1016.5 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi59 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 39°F1017.9 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 46 mi59 min N 3.9 G 5.8 56°F 56°F1 ft1017 hPa (+0.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi59 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi93 minNNE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F50°F68%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW11SW12
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W10W8SW6SW5SW6SW6SW8W6SW5SW5CalmN3NE3NE5NE73NE6NE9N7NE4NE6
1 day agoE5E7E3E7NE3E4E5SE4SE5SE5E4SE6SE6NE9CalmE5E4E3NE5E3SW9SW9
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2 days agoW18
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W9W5W6W6W5NW5NW4W3W5W3W4N6CalmNE3E8NE7E4E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.