Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:12 AM EST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 4:14AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 315 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Light snow showers early in the morning, then a chance of light snow showers late in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow showers in the evening, then a chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201811202200;;576255 FZUS53 KDTX 200815 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 315 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-202200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201240
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
740 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Aviation
Light snow and snow showers follow the cold front out of SE michigan
during early morning. High pressure building strongly into the ohio
valley extends into lower michigan through early afternoon and
promotes improvement toVFR with the help of a 330 degree wind
downsloping from northern lower michigan. A brokenVFR ceiling could
even become scattered for a few hours during late morning through
early afternoon. The wind backs toward the southwest quickly during
the late afternoon as high pressure slides eastward which allows
clouds to return during the evening. Ceiling starts outVFR and then
becomes MVFR with nocturnal influence and as lake michigan activates
stratocu production. The next cold front is then projected to move
into southern lower michigan late tonight preceded by gusty
southwest wind shifting northwest. The front appears moisture
starved with only widely scattered snow showers or flurries expected
through sunrise Wednesday.

For dtw... Light snow diminishes to snow showers and then comes to
and end with little additional accumulation during early morning.

Expect an improving cloud trend through the day with ceiling rising
intoVFR while becoming broken around 4500 ft. Clouds decreasing to
scattered coverage is also possible during afternoon. This is due to
moderate northwest wind that remains below crosswind threshold but
likely requires NE traffic flow operations through mid afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less during the morning then moderate
to low during afternoon and moderate again tonight.

* low for northwest wind exceeding crosswind threshold today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 313 am est Tue nov 20 2018
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 310 am est... Arctic boundary continues to push southeast
across the region early this morning, noted by a marked 850 hpa
temperature gradient of around -3c ahead of the boundary and -15c
across northern lower. Arrival of northern stream PV energy coupled
with right entrance region dynamics of the polar jet has allowed for
a fairly decent fgen response and flare up in coverage of light to
moderate snow across much of southeast michigan. Surface
temperatures near freezing, however, have limited accumulation
potential especially on paved surfaces, despite large flake size
observed locally at the office thanks in part to efficient snow
microphysics. The result has been mainly wet roadways across the
region, with the exception of some slushy accumulation on less
traveled roads.

The boundary will continue to push across the region the remainder
of the overnight period, and be east of the immediate region by
sunrise. Light snow will continue through roughly 12z especially
south and east of a sandusky flint owosso line, boosted in part by
the upper-level trough axis swinging through and allowing for some
ana-front post-frontal activity. Accumulation will be light in
nature, with most areas struggling to see an inch of total
accumulation that will mainly be on grassy surfaces. The exception
will be in the thumb closer to the lake huron shoreline where post-
front northwesterly flow convergence will aid in some enhanced lake
effect activity to result in an inch or two of accumulation.

Despite post-front surface ridging today, plenty of cloud cover will
still be around in cold air advective flow as supported by upstream
observations. Model guidance appears to be bullish with potential
clearing late this morning into the afternoon, as hi-res soundings
continue to depict ample-enough boundary layer moisture trapped
within the inversion layer strengthened by increasing midlevel
subsidence. Not expecting a day full of dreary stratus, but likely
more in the way of early stratus giving way to broken stratocu for a
time this afternoon. The periodic breaks in sunshine will do little
to provide a bump in high temperatures due to the frigid
aforementioned 850 hpa temps. Thus, high temperatures will struggle
to reach the freezing mark for most areas north of the m-59
corridor. A brisk northwesterly wind will add to the chill in the
air as wind chills dip solidly into the teens.

Any breaks in sunshine quickly disappear by this evening, as mid and
high clouds quickly overspread the region from the north ahead of a
second frontal boundary that will progress across the region
tonight. This frontal boundary will be in association with a clipper-
type surface wave diving southeast across georgian bay into ontario.

All indications continue to lead to a mainly dry frontal passage and
minimal, if any, accumulations accompanying widely scattered snow
showers. Low temperatures will only fall a few degrees from midday
highs due to increased cloud cover, with widespread mid upper 20s
common. It will feel much colder than that as west southwest winds
ramp up with the frontal passage and gusts of 20-30 mph are common.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
the second front will act to further strengthen the thermal trough
in place over the region, with continued cold temperatures for the
midweek period. Some lake effect snow showers will be possible
Wednesday into Thursday for portions of the thumb, otherwise dry
weather will prevail over the region as strong high pressure builds
over the central great lakes. High temperatures Wednesday will again
struggle to reach the freezing mark. As the high settles just east
of the region Wednesday night, there is the potential for a window
of enhanced scouring of clouds which would allow lows to plummet
well into the teens. Currently forecasting mid to upper teens for
lows Wednesday night, but if greater clearing does materialize,
would not be surprised to see some single digit lows in interior
portions of the saginaw valley.

Quiet, but cold weather is forecast for the thanksgiving holiday,
with high temperatures struggling to make it into the upper 20s and
mid 20s for the thumb. Low temperatures Thursday night will fall
into the low mid 20s.

Friday will mark a transition day across much of the CONUS as strong
pacific energy leads to a pattern shift and strong downstream flow
amplification over the eastern two-thirds of the country. Continued
dry weather will prevail with shortwave ridging passing by aloft.

Increasing low-level southwesterly flow will allow for a moderation
in temperatures as highs make a run at 40.

Long term Saturday through Monday
long range guidance continues to indicate a very active pattern for
the long term period. The GFS and ECMWF are starting to come into
better agreement with the evolution of the pacific energy ejecting
out of the rockies and its interaction with an energized subtropical
jet. Confidence is beginning to increase that Saturday will be an
all-rain scenario as any phasing of the northern and southern
streams looks to be east of the immediate region allowing for more
mild air to remain in place. As this first system exits by Sunday,
only a brief reprieve looks to be in store as additional pacific
energy ejecting out of the rockies results in potentially deep low
pressure developing in the mid-mississippi valley. Still plenty of
time to watch this system unfold as it impacts the region for early
next week, with the exact synoptic evolution and track having
significant implications on ptype.

Marine...

the gale watch is upgraded to a warning for tonight and Wednesday
across the open waters of lake huron. Small craft advisories are
extended through Wednesday night. A cold front exiting the central
great lakes this morning is leaving sub-gale northerly wind and high
waves ongoing across lake huron. This will be followed by a quick
progression of high pressure and backing of the wind to southwest
during the afternoon. Southwest wind then increases to near 30 knots
this evening as the next low pressure system reaches eastern lake
superior. This system sweeps a stronger cold front across the region
tonight which brings a 40 kt northwest gale to the open waters with
waves exceeding 15 feet through Wednesday morning. Marine conditions
remain unsettled Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the
central great lakes. The high moves quickly across lake huron during
thanksgiving leaving increasing south wind to finish the week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Wednesday for lhz362-
363-462-463.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for lhz421-441>443.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 10 am est Wednesday for
lhz361.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi43 min NW 14 G 21 27°F 1017.3 hPa24°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi43 min 28°F 1017.2 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi73 min NW 11 G 15 29°F 1017.9 hPa (+2.3)
AGCM4 30 mi43 min 29°F 46°F1017.4 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi73 min NW 8.9 G 16 29°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi18 minNW 11 G 1910.00 miLight Snow27°F23°F86%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4S5S8W8W7SW8S7SW5SW6W3W4W5W3W3W5W4W5W4NW5NW10NW10NW12NW14
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW5W3NW3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW3SW3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6NW5NW7NW6NW7NW8N6N7N5N4N4N3NE4N3N4N3CalmN3N3N4N4N3CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.