Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:45AMMoonset 6:33PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 952 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Showers likely late in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northwest late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201706222115;;638603 FZUS53 KDTX 221352 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-222115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221043
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
643 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation
Early morning convection along warm front should mainly affect kmbs
once small batch along i-94 shifts east 11z-12z. Aside from stray
activity, it should then be pretty quiet until late afternoon into
the evening as higher theta-e air continues to stream into area.

Coverage should range from isolated widely scattered i-94 to sct-bkn
kmbs nearer the front. Front settles south through area overnight as
low pressure passes east. While some convection will probably still
exist, very hard to envision the scenario. With hires models largely
fading activity away as more southern boundary over the ohio valley
activates, will leave post 03z-06z period dry. Some indication of
lower stratus filtering into area as well, but confidence in this
aspect of forecast is low as well.

For dtw... Early morning shras tsras should be east of terminal by
12z. ExpectVFR conditions into this evening with gusty southwest
flow to 25 knots or a bit more. Scattered convection may fire again
late in the day, but no more than prob30 given position of main
forcing along front well north.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms impacting terminal this evening.

* low for ceilings AOB 5kft tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 347 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
discussion...

water vapor imagery paints a good picture of the major players
affecting the forecast over the next few days. Strong, nearly zonal,
jet over the canada us border is currently nosing into the northern
midwest with mature low pressure system crossing into manitoba tied
to the left exit region of said jet. A cold front tied to this low
is draped through the midwest southwest through west texas and new
mexico. The jet MAX will push the northern extent of the cold front
eastward through today and tonight while the southern portion,
already suffering from weak flow, runs up against tropical storm
cindy lifting further north up the mississippi. A second wave diving
into the developing mid level trough will propel the entire system
eastward tonight into Friday. Resulting longwave trough will then
reside over the great lakes through about the middle of next week
before ridging attempts to regain control of the region.

Temperatures will run below normal, in the 70s, through the duration
of the forecast with the exception coming today where highs approach
90 in many locations. Some 80s will linger on Friday ahead of the
cold front, but then the 70s take over. Precipitation chances will
exist through next week as fronts troughs rotate through the main
longwave trough. Timing these individual events will be the focus
through the coming days.

First issue with the forecast is the developing warm frontal
boundary being forced north on the nose of a strengthening 850mb low
level jet. Models have come down some with the winds speeds in this
jet, now maxing out around 40 knots for the most part. Also
narrowing the corridor of higher winds, tighter to the cold front
upstream away from SE mi. Convection is already firing over wi and
lake mi along the lead edge of the instability theta E gradient
draped southward through western lower mi. Models continue to
advertise convection expanding in coverage along the front as the
system bleeds eastward. Unfortunately most hires is struggling with
the convection early on, though the rap and some versions of the
hrrr are starting to latch on. Current placement of the convection,
and eastward propagation of system in general means the saginaw
valley stands the best chance of getting clipped by this band of
storms. Potential for development further south and east remains
low, but there is some light shower activity over northern il
showing there is a chance. Will continue likely definite pops north
with only a chance south with the best window from 09-14z before the
forcing lifts north and strong warm air advection caps the
atmosphere.

For the rest of today, though models consistently show MUCAPE around
1000-1500 j kg (all elevated) with about 30 knots of bulk shear,
weak ridging slides through with a cap extending from around 5-9kft,
and an overall lack of forcing aloft, see precipitation hard to come
by this afternoon so will go mostly dry. The one caveat to this is
bands of deeper moisture emanating northward out of TS cindy. This
could lead to some shower activity on the weak theta E gradient, but
models did trend slower further south with this feature so will hold
off on getting too excited about it.

We then turn our attention to the cold FROPA late tonight into
Friday morning. Strong PV filament rotating around the parent low
will send the front through SE mi around 16-20z. Pwats ranging from
1.5 to 2 inches will cover the region as the front slides through.

Warm mid levels and prefrontal trough crossing early in the morning
hurt its chances of producing much severe weather. Also the
strongest ll jet seems to refocus further east although there will
be a narrow channel of higher winds along the front. And upper level
forcing is lacking as the right entrance region of the jet and
strong PV filament lag behind the front.

Biggest threat with any storm will be heavy rainfall as atmosphere
becomes very moist with dewpoints well into the upper 60s and pwats
previously mentioned over 1.5 inches. Orientation of the front
largely west to east parallel to the flow will lend to some training
before the front becomes more progressive. Locations across mid mi
stand the best chance of seeing excessive rainfall. As for severe
weather potential, best chance will be late this evening ahead of
the cold front while CAPE and shear are at their highest. Strong
winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Additional chances
will exist along the cold front Friday morning as stronger winds
aloft and frontal forcing slide though. Best chances for both fronts
will occur mainly north of i69.

Marine...

southerly flow will gradually increase and veer to the southwest as
a warm front lifts north through lower michigan. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible early this morning along this front,
mainly over portions of lake huron. Additional showers and storms
can be expected later today along this frontal boundary as moisture
and instability increase. Passing low pressure will force the front
southward late tonight into Friday with convection sinking south
with it. Winds will back to the west northwest and remain from that
general direction through the weekend. An unseasonably cold airmass
this weekend will bring the chance for light showers across most of
lake huron.

Hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this morning as a
warm front lifts through lower michigan, mainly along and north of
the i-69 corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms can be
expected late today into tonight as an influx of moisture spreads
over the region in advance of an approaching low pressure system.

Initially, this activity will again focus over the northern forecast
area, but the passage of the low pressure late tonight will allow
the frontal boundary and associated convection to sag south through
the remainder of the area. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms
will sink south of the region Friday. All told, localized rainfall
amounts may reach an inch or more, especially from around flint on
north into the saginaw valley.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..99
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi47 min S 11 G 12 66°F 1012.4 hPa55°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi47 min 67°F 1012.3 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi65 min N 5.1 G 7 59°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 30 mi47 min 69°F 1012.8 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi65 min S 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 60°F1013.7 hPa (+0.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi65 min S 7 G 11 70°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi69 minS 510.00 miOvercast64°F55°F73%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE5SE45E6SE6S9SE6E8SE5SE5SE9SE7S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7S8S9SE8
1 day agoW10
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2 days ago--W9SW10
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W9W10SW8W9SW5SW7SW6SW7N10
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6CalmCalmSW3SW6W6W9W9SW7W8W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.